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In Lithium ion batteries and key pharmaceutical ingredients, special semiconductors China is able to use the concentration of manufacturing capacity anc dependence on China to prevent the US and EU negotiating a way to recover lost supply chains. Supply chains that were carelessly turned over to China, a developing country at that time, by business executives of the US and EU in the 1990-2020 period who lacked vision and foresight. China's policy is to increase the dependence of US and EU, to tighten this dependence to achieve its goals. XI Jinping says WSJ wrote in a 2020 essay- that he wasn't for weaponizing it but that China must “tighten the dependence of international industrial chains on our country” so that it would be a way to respond and create negotiating room for continued access to technologies and markets in the US and EU were the US and EU to make efforts to recover the supply chains they had inadvertently and carelessly turned over to China. This action by US and EU business executives should be considered one of the major and ignominous failures of American and European business management of that period 1990-2020 which has made it difficult to even make the initial effort to recover these lost supply chains. As with the banks in the 2009 financial crisis that generation of management continues to operate as if nothing has happened.  ...

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GE Appliances now owned by China's Haier Smart Home to invest $3 billion to modernize US factories after DJT Tariffs. It shows that Tariffs are leading to reshoring to the US by Chinese companies along wiht Japanese and European ones.

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The narcotics revenue source is only one of three sources, says Defense Sec Gates. The other two are funds generated locally from the Pashtun minority in Pakistan, and funds generated from outside sources like people in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. A 2006 World Bank report says the hawala system- an informal money transfer system using a network of money brokers with little oversight- "carries out the majority of the country's cash payments and transfers." Of the local sources, its only now that the Pakistan government is making a serious effort to freeze these bank accounts traced to the Taliban. The CIA says it has identified the charities and organizations that send money, but it is not clear if these sources have been suspended. The implications of this is that the war could be sustained by the Taliban even if the opium crop was destroyed, or smuggling routes and labs were destroyed. Gates points out that the very same external funding channels for sending money by wealthy Muslims that the US supported in the 1980's to help Muslim militants expel the Russians may still be open today. His comment that "it would't surprise me if some of those channels were still open today," suggests that even the Defense Dept does not know how these channels operate because of their extreme secrecy. In a way this shows how the war and the people that the US supported have come back to hurt the US, just as the people on the Pakistani side find that the people they supported in the Afghan and tribal areas and the Taliban organization they created is now coming back to hurt Pakistan. What makes it deeply disconcerting is that as Gates points out, there is so little time before the patience of the American public wears out with rising casualties. And on the Pakistani side there is so little time also because the war is spreading to Pakistani cities. See the link to The Taliban's war on the ill trained Pakistani police forces across the country in the WSJ May 28, 2009. ...

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One military expert says even if half of the Iraqi army can be put in shape it could turn the tide against the ISIS. Advice from U.S. military experts is for the Iraqi army to focus only on the ISIS and avoid hurting relations with the Sunni population. Advisers are seen as making a difference and needed also for the tribal forces. A major difficulty is that Shiite militias and advisors from Iran play a role in the forces loyal to prime minister Maliki. Following the U.S. training of the Iraqi Army at a cost of over $25 billion there was a period under prime minister Maliki when he appointed officers more for loyalty than for military skills and training. With the U.S. withdrawal the Iraqi Army languished in this situation. Reporters from NYT and WSJ have documented extensively the weakness of the Iraqi Army in commanding officers, in training and in equipment.

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U.S. companies with international operations or exports are seeing lower profits in 2015 with the surge in the value of the dollar, as it approaches parity with the euro currency in a short period of time. At the same time the dollar has surged to 120 yen to the dollar. The currency shifts are part of a new global dynamic in which the eurozone and Japan increase competitiveness and exports to boost their economies, fend off deflation, and help return the global economy to a sustained growth phase. Aggressive bond buying and QE by the ECB is part of this new dynamic in the global economy.

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India has reduced imports of oil from Iran from 12% in 2011 to about 9% by the end of April, 2012. A senior state department official from the U.S., Carlos Pascual, will be in India in mid May 2012 to assess the energy situation and see what specific energy facilities in India need to do. Some of the refineries in India are designed to handle only the kind of heavy oil Iran supplies. For the U.S. the issue is keeping up the pressure on Iran during the talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on Iran's nuclear program. For India it has the vital trade and economic relationship with the U.S. balanced against cultural ties to the region and the need for oil supplies.

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Tension between the U.S. and Russia as Syria moves towards civil war and the Russians send arms to the Assad regime.

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VW's sales in the U.S. doubled between 2009 and 2012, and VW set aggressive goals for the U.S. market to reach 800,000 by 2018. The goal was a stretch goal because this was double the level of 438,000 vehicles in 2012. This was part of its Mach 18 plan to pass GM and Toyota in global sales by 2018. Now this goal appears less achievable, because of new models from Honda and Ford which surpass VW's Jetta and Passat in technology, features and fuel efficiency. The U.S. market sales have increased by 9.6% in 2013, VW's sales declined by 1.3% so far through August in 2013, at 282, 913 vehicles. Ramping up production at the new Chattanooga plant will have to be put off and 500 contract workers have been given leave from the assembly line. By contrast Toyota sales for the 8 month period 2013 increased by 7% and 8.6%. In August Toyota's were up 23%, Honda's 27%, and VW down 1.6%. VW executives have said the company needs sales of 400,000 to make the U.S. manufacturing operations profitable. VW made a strategic decision to cut costs and bring the Passat price more in line with competition from similiar cars from Japanese carmakers. But this was done not relying solely on productivity and other improvements, but used cost cutting using cheaper materials. VW even went one step further by taking away the European suspension which delivered a more precise ride, and installed a lower cost suspension on the Jetta and Passat. Customers have noticed with some buying older models with the European suspension. Honda and Toyota moved in the other direction in the last 2 years coming out with more advanced features on the Accord and Camry. Ford did this with the Fusion. The new Accord has a backup camera, iPod connection, power seats and alloy wheels as standard. As a result Passat sales were up only 3% through Aug 2013, and Accord sales increased by 17%, Ford Fusion sales up 13%. VW's response is to ramp up discounts. It is also coming up with a new engine, Jetta compact with a sportier ride will be introduced, and a redesigned Golf hatchback for 2014. The slowdown in sales at VW shows how competitive the car market has become with Korean, German, Japanese and American carmakers quick to make inroads in turn with weak points of the competition. Strategic missteps can be costly for any manufacturer and the customer can never be taken for granted....

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U.S. oil imports from Saudi Arabia increased by about 20% in 2012, increasing dependence on the volatile Middle East region.

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A key takeaway from the UN Population report in 2023 is the youthfulness of India's population. India has 1.428 billion people in 2023. 26% of this is in the 10-24 year age group. As much as 68% is in the 15-64 years age group. The fertility rate now at 2.0 is less than the replacement rate of 2.1. This is the number of children each woman has in her lifetime.

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China imports from the US only $143 billion and much of this is soyabeans (US farmers), petroleum oil products (buyers in Europe and Asia), aircraft (Boeing). Farmers were compensated from the tariff revenues in the first term, oil products would be shipped to Asia and LNG to Europe to make up for loss of supplies from Russia. India will take up the Boeing production as it's economy expands to levels China, Japan had earlier. The action is a last resort as 490,000 lives were lost in 12 years from the fentanyl shipped raw materials from China and drug trafficking gangs in Mexico processing it in labs to ship across the long US border or Canadian border into the US. China and Mexico have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US. How much is 490,000 American lives worth? That is 5 times the lives lost in the Vietnam War and the Korean War combined of 100,000 lives lost in both wars. China exported $436 billion to the US in 2023 increasing by about 6% from prior year. Integrated Circuits alone were more than all US exports combined to China at $154 billion. Electric batteries another $80 billion. Computers and office machine parts were $54 billion. Where will China ship all these products. It is brave but it is easier to stop fentanyl flows out of China, and cut all the trade barriers, reverse state policy to dominate key industrial sectors in State Planning. The problem in the stock market response is that this is a trade war which it is NOT. It is about National Security if this is allowed to continue as Clinton, Bush, Obama have allowed to happen US is in real danger of becoming a second rate power in the world, at which point the world will become a dangerous place with India, China, Russia, Germany and other states having no constraints to create future wars without US to set some basic principles of world peace. UN itself would not exist without Cordell Hull and FDR. The world we know will be GONE. US Navy will not be able to build the ships it needs in USA if this deindustrialization is allowed to continue.    ...

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Saying that these countries had significantly cut imports from Iran, the U.S. government gave exemptions from the sanctions on Iran to 10 European countries and Japan. Exemptions were given to Belgium, Britain, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain. This leaves 11 countries facing possible sanctions including China, India and S. Korea, with negotiations underway with these three major importers. The sanctions law passed by the U.S. Congress gives the government room to avoid damage to global oil markets and U.S. allies.

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Most of the sales increases in the U.S. market in the 2012 fourth quarter are seen as going to Toyota and Honda. The arrival of new models for the Accord and Camry and the new Civic are likely to boost the Japanese automakers.

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Support from U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, and IMF head, Christine Lagarde, for Japan's Abe government's efforts to reduce the value of the yen. Bernanke says policy conducted with a view to improving the domestic economy is good policy.

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The purchase of F/A-18 aircraft by Germany capable of delivering nuclear weapons stationed in Germany is critical to keeping the nuclear deterrance and the "nuclear sharing" agreement with the U.S. Older aircraft, the Tornadoes are now 40 years old. Chancellor Merkel has supported the purchase but this is now being called into question by its junior partner in the coalition government the SPD.  Leaders of the SPD party say they would block the purchase of 45 Boeing Company made F/A-18 jets proposed by Merkel's defense minister. Under NATO's nuclear sharing agreement going back to the 1950's it is believed there are about 180 B61 tactical nuclear bombs in rope, some 20 in Germany and spread out over Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. President Trump has said the U.S. will withdraw from a treaty with Russia that limits the presence of nuclear missiles in Europe because Russia is not living up to the agreement. This could lead to an arms race. The issue is leading to the beginning of a fundamental debate about nuclear armanent and military spending of a type that has not happened in Europe since 1982 when a rebellion in the SPD over the stationing of nuclear weapons in Europe led to the ouster of Chancellor Helmut Schmidt.  The Christian Democrats view the purchase of the F/A-18 at a time when Russia is updating its nuclear deterrance as fundamental to NATO and nuclear sharing. The SPD's leaders say nuclear sharing does not mean the need to host nuclear weapons, and give the example of Canada, a NATO ally that does not have U.S. weapons on its soil. ...

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Greg Ip provides useful insights into the nature of the economic recovery in Britain compared to the U.S. by 2015. The recovery in Britain has done better than in the U.S. in job creation, but has lagged behind in productivity gains. The labor force participation rate is 72% in Britain compared to 68% in the U.S., going back up to 2007 levels in Britain, whereas in the U.S. it has steadily declined with some older working class Americans too discouraged to look for work and left behind. Stagnant wage growth is a major issue in Britain, more so than in the U.S. where wage growth is slow. Economic austerity is not the main cause of the economic difficulties as the coalition government of prime minister Cameron relaxed earlier goals for austerity by 2012 with tax revenues and growth below forecasts. The structural budget deficit has been reduced by 6.6% of GDP since the peak, and the Office of Budget Responsibility estimates the UK economy was 1.5%-2% smaller by 2013 because of the austerity policies. Britain was also affected by the eurozone crisis to a larger degree than the U.S. Productivity remains a long term challenge- with needed investments in housing, education and infrastructure, improved lending for new business, and higher tech improvement exports....

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Shrinking GDP, tax revenue declines, and government aid to business and workers, is pushing U.S. debt to record levels. The Congressional Budget Office report shows federal debt to exceed 100% of GDP for 2020. It was 106% of GDP in 1946 after the financing of the second world war. Because the coronavirus pandemic is comparable to the second world war in scale of threat the government approved $2.7 trillion in aid relief.

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A chemical attack on a rebel held area in northern Syria leads to international outrage and protests.