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Indian finance minister Sitharaman announces a new stimulus package "Atman Nirbhar Bharat." This includes an effort to incentivize creation of employment opportunities for people making less than Rs. 15,000 a month ($215 a month), called "Atman Nirbhar Rozghar Yojana, for a period of 2 years. Sitharaman cited stock market rebound and foreign reserves reaching $560 billion to show that along with the government efforts and planned infrastructure the economy would make a robust recovery. Because of India's large informal economy help to street vendors and other small retail is critical in the Indian economy. The finance minister cited the "One Nation, One Ration Card" which allows street vendors and other retail merchants to access foodgrains from FPS of choice in 28 states and union territories in India. This is part of the effort to build demand and upward mobility in the economy. The names given for these efforts or yojanas are unique- PM SVANidhi stands for PM's Street Vendors Atmannirbhar Nidhi. Atmannirbhar is the overall plan for self reliance in the economy and the prime minister Modi has pushed for buying Made in India, to promote jobs and technology + capital accumulation in Indian manufacturing. India took a blow from the coronavirus with close to 9 million infected by the virus and lockdown in March. By September 20 the daily cases reached 100,000, and by November 10 the daily cases have dropped to 44,000. Social distancing and mask wearing are widely accepted in India. India has other advantages in the large pharmaceutical industry and access to drugs at government regulated and low prices as part of the planned effort after independence in 1947. Other aspects of Indian life are cultural preference for vegetables and fruits in the diet, and spices, herbs in cooking, yoga practice, which are anti-inflammatory and promote healthy living.  With the largest population in the world the region in the Indian ocean comprising the countries of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Burma and Indonesia, former parts of the British and Dutch empires, is a region where the coronavirus posed a great threat to human life. An early carefully orchestrated lockdown by prime minister Modi  helped with the message in March that India faced a singular choice - between going back 21 years in development or controlling the coronavirus in 21 crucial days. The setting up of the direct transfer of money to bank accounts  of farmers, urban street vendors and lower income people in rural areas by giving everyone a bank account under a government plan early in the first term of the current administration enabled it to send aid directly when coronavirus hit the country. Other schemes included cooking gas for women in rural areas who depended on firewood for cooking. These schemes and sanitation infrastructure setup under the Clean India campaign, helped India build an element of resilience when coronavirus hit.  The government plan to remove interstate barriers to commerce and integrate tax system collection at the federal level, bringing parts of the informal economy into the formal economy, have increased revenues that now finance an infrastructure plan that hopes to match the one in China over the next decade.   ...

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Prime minister Theresa May's Conservative party needs the 10 seats of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland to have a slim 3 seat majority in Britain's 650 seat parliament. Yet many members of May's Conservatives oppose an agreement with the DUP which is seen as not similar in social views. The DUP is the party of Rev. Ian Paisley which was in conflict with the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein party in Northern Ireland for many years. Former Conservative prime minister John Major says an alliance with the DUP would be in violation of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland. Under that agreement the UK and Irish governments stated they would have "rigorous impartiality" towards all the different groups in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein sees a new Conservative government with DUP support as preventing the power sharing agreement with DUP that brought peace to Northern Ireland. Complicating this further is the vote on Brexit with 56% opposed and 44% in favor in Northern Ireland. And the DUP wants a "frictionless border," an open border with Ireland so that it would not affect the way of life Irish people have enjoyed since the peace agreement. So that even as talks are supposed to begin this week on Brexit with the EU, Brexit is looking more and more in doubt. Negative impact on Britain's economy through increased uncertainty and rising prices, and increased participation of young people opposed to Brexit in the parliamentary election leading to the vote for Labor party of about 40% of voters, also contributes to this sentiment. (gist in 264 words, about 955 words in original article) ...

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This WSJ report on critical analysis of coronavirus data has a very useful chart of Estimated Range of Symptomatic Cases Reported by Country. Complete coronavirus data for all symptomatic persons who have the coronavirus infection is lacking in most countries. Many people in large populations have symptoms and are positive but are not reflected in the official data collection. This is a big problem as the total number of cases are understated by a magnitude of twice to five times the numbers reported in official tally.   South Korea has done a good job of getting more of the symptomatic people with the infection in its data, as about 53% to 90% of such persons are reflected in official data. Next comes Germany at a range of 38% to 55%.  China comes third and has about 28% to about 38% of such persons reflected in its data, the U.S. currently on April 4 at about 14% to 19%, according to this chart in the WSJ. The source for this is Mathematical Modeling Center at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. What this means is that the US. number of cases at 278,000  reported infected people with symptoms (April 4) is only 14% to 19% of the true number. Another way to say this is that the actual infected persons with symptoms is about 5 times what is reported, or over 1 million not the 278,000 reported.  As happens for China data collection agencies may never get the true number. To be comparable to the Chinese numbers, as the U.S. is a large country, the figure closer to the true numbers would be twice the 278,000 reported or over half a million symptomatic infections of coronavirus in the U.S. Why is this data important. With widespread testing as in South Korea one gets data that tells one how many people are infected (the size of the problem) and therefore the resources needed and the point of greatest impact. Also it tells one the typical transmission rate per person, and it helps hospitals in each area know what to expect and what resources are needed to prepare- not find people suddenly turn up in the E.R. in unpredictable numbers. The lack of widespread testing and better reporting in the data to get a grip on the pandemic is shown in this chart for countries hardest hit, less than 5-6% for Italy and Spain. The UK and France at 5-8%.   ...

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Daniel Altman's proposal for a tax on wealth over $1 million. He makes the case for taxing wealth not incomes to reduce inequality as this is where the situation in terms of inequality has worsened for the U.S. in recent decades. To support this proposal Altman cites the change in the U.S. Ginni coefficient, which measures inequality. The Ginni coefficient is anumber from 0 to 100 which goes up with higher income inequality. From the late 70's to the 1990's, the Cnesus Bureau showed this to be in the low 40's. By 1992 the Ginni coefficient went up to the mid-70's, according to the Federal Reserve data. It increased to about 80 in 2010. In 1992 the top 10% in the U.S. population controlled 20 times the wealth of the bottom 50%. By 2010 this figure triples to 65 times. and the graduated income tax even if it redistributes a small share of the wealth does little to affect the trend of wealth extremes from building up and threatening the social fabric of America, reducing mobility and opportunities for the bottom 50% to unprecedented levels since the 1950's. ...

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Marek Belk, head of Poland's central bank, says Poland should prepare for impact of a general slowdown in the eurozone. Poland's economy is expected to grow at 4% for 2011, but experience a slower rate of growth in 2012. Poland's public debt is at 55% of GDP compared to 120% for Italy. Belka said the mistakes in Italy show it is important to stay ahead of the markets. The action taken in Italy on November 14, 2011, if taken 2 months earlier would have prevented the jump in Italy's borrowing costs. Risks facing Poland come from the fact that a large proportion of the nation's banking assets are owned by banks of other European countries- as much as 70% of Poland's banking assets. As a result if these banks experience difficulties the local branches could become orphans. Belka would like to see private capital in Poland be used to bring a larger share of the banking sector back in Polish hands. Belgian and Portuguese banks are considering selling their banking operations to Polish banks, and PKO Bank Polski SA, PZU SA are possible buyers. Poland's central bank has kept interest rates steady at 4.5%....

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Fitch Ratings Agency says that 65-75% of homeowners getting home loan modifications under the Obama administration's Home Affordable Loan Modification Program (HAMP) will default in 12 months. This is because the median ratio of total debt payments to pretax income is about 64% according to a Treasury Department estimate. Many of these homeowners have large credit card and other debt, and little is left for food, clothing and other expenses. By April 2010, 295,000 homeowners had taken loan modifications under HAMP, which provides interest rates of as low as 2%. And another 637,000 homeowners are in trial modifications, which require that homeowners show they can make the lower payments consistently and provide documets to show eligibility. The Obama administration has provided $50 billion for the HAMP program, with financial incentives to loan servicers and mortgage investors to modify loans. Critics say the program would have worked better if the government and HAMP dealt directly with homeowners- as homeowners complain about the long time, upto a year, it takes for loan servicers and mortgage companies to get the loan modified on a long-term basis....

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British budget cuts announced in Parliament by Britain's Finance Minister, George Osborne. About 83 billion pounds in cuts by 2015 were announced. But Joseph Stiglitz, writing in The Guardian, argued that the plan was a big gamble, as declining tax revenues with lower growth, would lead to smaller deficit reductions. The gamble is that the private sector will pick up, and make up for the reduction in public outlays. If this does not happen, this risks sending the economy into a tailspin. Osborne said that 490,000 jobs will be lost over the next 4 years, some from attrition. Payments to the long term unemployed will also be cut for those who fail to seek jobs, saving $11 billion a year. A new 12 month limit will be imposed on long term jobless benefits. Increase in the retirement age will start in 2020, from 65 to 66 years. At the same time free eye tests, prescription drugs and bus passes remain. Premier Cameron promised not to make cutbacks in health care in the period before the election. This was his way of helping the Conservatives make a comeback to power....

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India's ruling Congres party suffered losses in the two major states of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. In Uttar Pradesh, the socialist Samajwadi party gained an absolute majority of 224 seats in the 403 seat assembly. The Bahujan Samaj party of Kumari Mayawati lost its majority winning only 80 seats, the BJP won 47 seats and the Congress won only 28 seats. Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party campaigned heavily in the state and the results show that his campaign against Mayawati did not result in Congress gaining enough seats to form a coalition government with the Samajwadi party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav. Yadav has held the position of chief minister three times before, and campaigned for greater rights for lower castes and for a quota in education and jobs for Muslims. His other campaign promises included increasing electricity production, and improving the business climate. In the Punjab state, the Shiromani Akali Dal party won 56 of 117 seats, with the Congress getting 46 seats. National elections will be held in 2014, and the results reflect a repudiation of the Congress party after corruption scandals, slower economic growth, and lack of clear policy direction....

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According to U.S. Senate investigators Apple recorded $26 billion, 65% of its income worldwide for 2012, in Ireland. Ireland Operations International is based in County Cork, Ireland. Ireland has about 4% of Apple's worldwide workforce. Laws in the European Union allow digital companies such as Apple and Google and other large companies to pay little in taxes through such arrangements. Apple CEO Cook says Apple is not using any tax gimmicks. Apple negotiated a low 2% tax rate with the Irish government. The Senate hearings in the U.S. and a meeting of EU leaders has raised concern about this practice being allowed at a time when much needed infrastructure investments are being shelved in the U.S. and Europe because of budget deficits. Spending cuts in education and in R&D hurt long term economic growth. Government statistics show the average Ireland tax rate on gross income of companies in 2010 was 6%. Ireland has a low corporate tax rate for companies of 12.5% which it retained after EU pressures to change the rate when the Irish bailout was provided. Ireland has 4000 Apple workers, and 600 American companies employ 100,000 Irish workers....

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Under the McConnell-Biden fiscal cliff deal of Jan. 1, 2013, $620 billion is raised for deficit reduction over 10 years. This is made up of $395 billion from raising the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6% from 35% for the top 1% of filers who make $450,000 for couples or 400,000 for singles. Raising the top rate on capital gains and dividends to 20% from 15% raises $55 billion. Limiting the personal exemption and itemized deductions on incomes over $250,000 is a key component as it raises $150 billion. This reduction of tax expenditures was recommended by Simpson-Bowles deficit commission and Republican advisor Martin Feldstein, with more money raised under their proposals than the current proposal which follows the Pease format. Under the Pease limits named after a Congressman who proposed this in the 1990's, 3% of the amount above the threshhold income is deducted from the total deductions. Feldstein's proposal limited deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income. Romney offered a plan to limit deductions to $25,000. Finally, increasing the estate tax to 40% from 35% raises $20 billion....

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Browning points out the record Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) average was not in 2007 but in 2000 when adjusted for inflation- on Jan 14, 2000. Since 1994 consumer prices measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have risen by 55%. Using 1994 dollars the March 5, 2013 closing DJIA average is at 9256, the 2007 high at 10194, and the record on Jan 14, 2000 at 10424, according to calculations made by Bespoke Investment Group. In inflation adjusted terms these calculations show the Dow barely making any progress in relation to the 2000 figure. When dividends and taxes are included, Browning says the inflation adjusted Dow is still not back up to the 2000 level. For retirees and sensible investors the real value of this money has to be taken account. Yale University professor, who founded the CAPE cyclically adjusted P/E, confirms what Browning says in an article in the WSJ March 10, 2013. There Shiller says that the inflation adjusted S&P 500 index has not made it to the 2000 level, so that investors have not made up for money lost in inflation in 13 years....

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Prices of homes in the U.S. increased by 9.3% in February 2013, according to the Standard & Poor's/ Case-Shiller survey of home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas. All 20 cities posted gains for the second month. Prices in Phoenix increased by 23%, and in San Francisco by 18.9%. The median home price in March was $184,300 up from the $154,600 in Jan. 2012. The peak was at $230,400 in 2006. The WSJ quarterly survey shows less than 3 month supply of homes in Phoenix and San Francisco. Supplies of homes declined by 16.8%, sales of previously owned homes were up by 10.3% in March over the prior year month. Supplies have dropped as banks are putting fewer homes in foreclosure and many homeowners are unwilling to sell for a number of reasons. Increasing rents and low mortgage costs also help increase demand. The interesting aspect of this is that prices are rising even as homeownership rate declined to 65%, according to the Census Bureau. And compared with 2004 there are 7.2 million more renters and only about 400,000 new homeowners, according to Capital Economics. Some of the homebuying comes from investors buying homes and converting them into rentals....

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Brooks point to the percentage of GDP going to consumption as having gone up from 62% between 1962 and 1980. In 2008 it was 70% of GDP and debt went up from 55 percent of national income to 133%. Financial self restraint and values of earlier generations eroded. He says the slide in economic morality affects red and blue equally, so the cultural politics organized the way it is is obsolete. There has to be a movement to restore economic values cutting across the current lines. Building a producer not a consumer economy, return to financial restraint large and small. And importantly he says, such a movement will have to take on what you might call the lobbyist ethos. The conviction that every group is entitled to every possible appropriation, regardless of the public cost. Such a crusade will he says rearrange the current alliances and embrace policies such as energy taxes. See the Friedman article on a gasoline tax, where he tells those who want to fight the wars against religious extremism such as in Iraq, to not be wimps and take on the opposition to the gasoline tax....

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California Governor Schwarznegger points out that about 80 cents on every government dollar in California goes to public employees compensation and benefits. He says spending on state employees went up three times as fast as state revenues during the last decade. The result is crowding out of other programs such as higher education, parks and recreation. Because of large unfunded pension and retirement health-care benefit committments, California faces $550 billion of retirement debt. Costs of servicing that debt have grown at the rate of 15% for the last decade. The result is that California will spend more on retirement benefits than on higher education in 2010. Schwarznegger points to the fact that most employees in the private sector do not have $1 million in savings, but are in effect guaranteeing a retirement account of $1 million to state employees who retire at 55 years age- with a $3000 inflation protected check for the rest of their lives- as evidence that politicians in the State Assembly have made committments for the future that they cannot keep. And if they are kept they will leave little money for essential programs in education and public services....

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Jumbo loan mortgages in dollars accounted for 20% of first lien mortgages in 2014, the first time since 2005, and back up from 5.5% in 2009 at the height of the subprime mortgage crisis. This part of the market for homes priced over $417,000 or $ 625,500 in pricier regions, has gained its footing faster than the rest of the market. Sales of existing single family homes between $750,000 and $1 million, were up 21% in June from the prior year, compared to an increase of 12.5% for homes between $100,000 and $250,000, with homes below $100,000 declining by 3%, according to the National Association of Realtors. The jumbo originations are closely correlated with the stock market. The loan performance criteria were tightened after the 2009 crisis leading to requirements of larger down payments and higher FICO credit scores. The strong loan performance is shown in the credit score for May 2015 of 770, and down payment of about 32% for jumbo loan originations, according to CoreLogic. Interest rates are also very close between smaller Fannie conforming mortgage loans and jumbo mortgages, 4.05% compared to 4.07% on jumbo loans. The higher demand is leading to competition between JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America in this part of the market. Chase is focussing on this part of the market with the strong loan performance- only 1.9% of jumbo mortgages being late 30 days or more compared to 6.5% for Fannie Freddie conforming loans, according to Black Knight Financial Services. As part of its strategy Chase offers minimum down payments of 15% and credit scores of 680 for single family homes as primary residence, starting August 5, 2015, down from 20% and 740 earlier, for mortgages between $1.5 million and $3 million, a change already made in 2014 for jumbo mortgages upto $1.5 million. Similiar move is made by Chase for lowering down payment on vacation homes and second homes. Wells Fargo also cut the minimum down payment- to 10.1% from 15% for jumbo mortages upto $1 million. ...

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Simon Nixon points to two large capital gaps Spain's government faces for Bankia. Spain was not prepared for the events of the last month as it took control of Bankia. The agreement to convert 4.5 billion of preference shares into equity gives it 100% of Bankia parent, Banco Financiero y de Ahorros, and 45% of Bankia. The capital gaps Spain faces for Bankia comes from expected loan losses which it has been slow to deal with. BFA-Bankia's real estate loan losses are estimated at 52 billion euros. Capital provisions for this are only 11%. J.P. Morgan estimates another 4.9 billion euros will be needed under new government rules. But these rules do not reflect all the losses if real estate loans are written off and and other loans are correctly shown as nonperforming, and other corporate loan provisions are increased. When this is done total losses would in reality be about 12% of the 190 billion euro loans at BFA-Bankia or 22.8 billion euros, according to experts. To correctly deal with this would require $15 billion euros, in addition to the 4.9 billion euros, for a total of 19.9 billion euros. The other capital gap comes from BFA's capital carried on books at 12 billion euros, the pre-IPO value. This has been shrinking rapidly to 5.5 billion euros at 2011 end, and is now down to 2.8 billion euros. This could mean another capital gap of 5 billion euros, depending on to whether shareholders are wiped out. Bankia has 350,000 private shareholders and it will be important to maintain depositor confidence. The total is close to 25 billion euros in capital gap for BFA-Bankia that the Spanish government must face up to quickly. It does not stop there because there are other cajas savings banks and other banks that will have to be taken into account- too large a loss would mean losing market confidence and poorer access to financial markets. ...

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Companies like P&G and Walmart in Mexico, and Lever Brothers and Cadbury in India, are taking developing markets seriously and going after the low price points for products; selling in areas away from the large cities. See the links to Nestle,P&G and Walmart. Cadbury is adding another element, by investing in the growing of cocoa in southern India, to have access to a cheaper supply to meet those low price points. Cadbury Dairy Milk Shots, are pea sized chocolate balls with a sugar shell to protect them from the heat. This product was launched this year. It sells for 2 rupees or 4 cents for a five gram packet. The low price makes it accessible to more people. For Cadbury emerging markets are crucial for new growth, and affordability a critical way to go after this market. Emerging markets account for 35% of Cadbury's sales and 60% of the growth. The potential is huge considering India's low per capita consumption of chocolate. Half of the people in India have never tasted chocolate in their life. And India's total chocolate consumption is $465 million compared to $4.89 billion in the UK. Growth has been at about 20% for the last 3 years. Cadbury controls over 70% of the chocolate market and 30% of the confectionery market in India, with combined sales of $338 million, according to AC Nielsen. Nestle is next with 25% of the chocolate market. To keep prices low the company is moving factories to lower cost locations and improving its supply chain. It has setup 20 nurseries in southern India, from where saplings are sent to nearby farms for cultivation. Cadbury provides the saplings, technical expertise, and advice on where to get free government assistance in fertilizers. This is called the Cadbury Cocoa Partnership and has planted 5 million saplings in India in 2008. Another 7.5 million saplings are planned for 2009, and already Cadbury imports only half of its cocoa needs. Local coca costs 30% less because of a 30% tariff on imports....

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The situation today of the London and the Thames Valey region's economy and the economy of the areas surrounding it in the south. Its history,downturns in periods after the dotcom crash in 2000-2005 and the current expected downturn after the US subprime crisis, and the expected deterioration in the housing market here. As well as problems for the financial institutions in a tightening credit market with London's position as a key centre of international finance impacting the economy the most. Regional diffeernces in the current upturn London's output per person grew to 136 vs decline in output per person in Scotland Wales and the North, a 36% improvement in London vs deterioration elsehwere in the north and in Wales. With Newcastle in the north hit by the Northern Rock mortgage lender's collapse adding to the difficulties from a general decline in manufacturing. A general decline in industry in the north and the rest of the country outside the Thames valley region shows up in the numbers. From 2000 to 2004 according to official estimates, manufacturing declined from 17.9% to 14.1% and financial services around London expanded from 5.5% to 8.3%, and by 2006 to 9.4%. With a contribution of one tenth of the economy financial services account for 30% of overall GDP growth in the last 3 years and 30% of all corporation tax revenues which helped the Labor government finance its public sector improvements and infrastructure improvements. The current downturn will also lead to a sharp drop in immigration to Britain. Growth is expected to slow to 1.4% in London and in the rest of the country in 2008 which is lower than the 2% growth in London region in the period 2000-2005 when the last downturn in London occurred. The financial services industry spills out benefits to other regions and the rest of the country which is how the British economy has done well even with the lack of strong manufacturing, weak exports and strong currency. ...

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The graph showing the monthly volume of issued bonds shows that the bonds issued came to a complete halt in October 2008, leading to a collapse in this market, making consumer finance almost impossible to get. The action by the Fed to lend $600 billion to investors to buy these bonds is an effort to unclog these markets for consumer finance. It also comes as the market for cars collapsed in October, with auto loan financing difficulties a major factor in this collapse, especially for GM. The market for mortgage securities issued by Fannie and Freddie also seemed to be drying up as investors and foreign central banks shunned Fannie and Freddie, resulting in the spread over Treasury bonds for these securities issued by Fannie rising from 0.7 percentage points in September to 1.7 percentage points in October 2008. The Fed announced that it would buy $600 billion of these securities starting December 1, 2008, and hire asset managers to manage this portfolio for the Fed. Mortgage rates dropped half a point to to 5.5% on the announcement injecting some life in to housing markets. This does not help the 11.8 million homeowners under water, and those facing foreclosure, and it does not help those buyers who do not qualify for mortgages. It does help those who were responsible in their finances through the recent years and helps others refinance. So it helps those who were better off but started cracking under this economy. So it does not change the underlying fundamentals say some experts, but it does help keep some life in the housing markets say other experts. The Case-Shiller index of housing prices which declined 15.1 % in the second quarter, declined 16.6% in the third quarter, year over year. This helps keep up the prices from severe drops, but even the lower mortgage rates from this Fed action may not last as the rates dropped after the rescue of Fannie and the again started creeping upwards again. . . ...

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A significant part of the haze and air pollution in New Delhi, India, comes from crop burning in the neighboring Punjab and Haryana region. Here the Hindu newspaper looks at the practice that has not changed even after a 2015 government and NGT order banning the practice. This report cites data from the state of Punjab showing 65% of the 1.85 million farming families in the Punjab are small and marginal farmers. The problem is that the rice paddy harvest leaves 19.7 million tons of paddy straw in the fields and the farmers see burning this as a quick way to avoid incurring the cost of machinery and labor. The Punjab government is required to provide machinery to farmers for preventing the burning. Farmers say it has not provided this. Punjab government seeks funding from the central government in Delhi for meeting the cost. Till then marginal farmers continue their old ways creating a thick haze over New Delhi. Solutions proposed are having more biomass plants to generate energy and use the paddy straw, a Happy Seeder variety that takes works with the straw, and shifting to Basmati rice instead of the common rice crop. The way Indian democracy works political parties have remained wary of collectively working out solutions, letting the problem continue.  ...

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Sebarros of the WSJ takes a closer look at the key words used by U.S. president Trump in rallies in city after city during the 2016 election campaign and in the months before the Congressional elections in 2018. Analysis by the WSJ counted the unique two word phrases, how often Trump highlighted topics, the content of audience respones in 48 post election rally speeches through Oct 27.  In 2018 the words "tax cuts,"fake news," and "health care," appeared more often than in 2017 after the Republican party's win in passing a tax cut. Other phrases used frequently were "law enforcement," "North Korea," and "Supreme Court" after the win in nominating Judge Kavanaugh. The use of the 2 word phrases are carefully done. The words "fake news" were not used during sensitive periods such as when pipe bombs were mailed to government offices, yet resumed few weeks later. His own name is the seventh most used word, even for someone such as Mr. Trump, showing that behind the impromptu remarks there is a carefully worded effort to steer voters in a particular direction with carefully developed appeals. Another example is when the Dow Jones averages were reaching new highs in September and October Mr. Trump highlighted the stock market growth, and then when volatility increased by November said much less on this topic. Graphs by Jessica Wang provide a good look at how frequently and in what manner Mr. Trump has continued his unique campaigning style before the 2018 Congressional elections, with two word appeals to already receptive audiences. The audience participation is a singular feature and the words "U.S.A." were used in 85% of the rallies with "Build that Wall" at 65% as the next most frequent.  Much of it is repetitive in city after city and the WSJ analysis shows that the major television networks including Fox News are not covering the speeches from beginning to end as they did before, only C-Span public network does. To receptive audiences in carefully scripted surroundings, including larger ones such as the Toyota Center Houston, where larger numbers of supporters worried about immigration, health care, trade, and other issues can come together, president Trump has rallied core supporters with this kind of appeal. ...

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U.S. president Trump's 2017 budget is an effort to reshape spending priorities by the Republican party. Apart from Medicare and Social Security all other entitlement programs from the days of Lyndon Johnson's Great Society are subject to cuts. Deep cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, including introducing work requirements. The philosophy behind it is that compassion will now be measured not by how large these programs are but by how much the government can get people "off these programs and back in charge of their lives,"  according to Budget Director Mulvaney.  The cuts are $616 billion to Medicaid and Children's Health programs, $193 billion in cuts to Food Stamps, $143 billion in student loans, $72 billion in disability programs. The overhaul of the Affordable Health Care Act is part of this change. The reallocation would put more money into infrastructure for $200 billion, and in tax cuts, $19 billion in a parental leave program and $29 billion for veterans programs, plus added spending on the military. William Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Republican who worked on budget issues says it will be politically difficult as the cuts to lower income groups come with tax cuts for small businesses and higher income individuals.  Beyond the policy priorities there is an area where both Republicans and Democrats are skeptical of the budget. This is how it impacts the U.S. debt. Under Congressional Budget Office estimates the U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP which rose to about 75% after the Great Recession starting in 2008, is projected to grow to about 85%. In sharp contrast the Trump administration estimates of the Office of Management and Budget are for it to drop to 65% based on rosier estimates of 2% inflation, 3% growth for the decade ahead. Experts say this is unlikely once the Fed raises interest rates and the unemployment rate currently at 4.4% leads to rising inflation, undercutting growth which has remained below 2% for a long period. These concerns are also voiced by Hilsenrath in the WSJ based on the experience of other countries such a Britain that cut corporate taxes without seeing an uptick in economic growth. ...

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Obama wins South Carolina Edwards home base by 55% to Clinton's 27%, and Edward's 18%. Obama wins 24% of the white vote. What happens when the white men who voted for Edwards choose between Clinton and Obama ? As many white men voted for Obama as for Clinton. And 70% of white voters in exit poll by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool of television networks say they would be satisfied if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. When asked if the country was definitely ready for a black President 25% of white voters said yes. Obama's coalition of young people, black people, and white male voters, alienated by the Clintons and working through the internet and other media outside of the establishment, may resemble the one put together in South Korea by young people to put an outsider in the President's position a few years ago.