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The US is supplying Europe with liquified natural gas so that Europe can cope with a threatened cutoff or slowdown from Russian gas supplies. Much of the LNG that normally would go to Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries is being diverted to Europe with a threat of Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US, is with Qatar and Australia a major LNG producer. This WSJ report shows LNG tankers entering and unloading at the Gate Terminal in Netherlands, a key point for sending liquified natural gas to Germany. Italy has its own entry terminals for LNG tankers. This will help Europe deal with its winter needs, even though things will be very tight if a Russian cutoff happens. One aspect of this supply of LNG will cause economic hardship in Germany and this is the price of LNG gas which has soared to five times when delivered in the Netherlands compared to US prices. LNG in gas forms shrinks to one six hundredth its size in volume as a liquid, making it possible for one LNG tanker that is about the size of 4 football fields to hold enough gas to power 70,000 homes for one year. Most LNG tankers can be unloaded in one day and go straight into port because some LNG is lost as ships wait. Most of the bottlenecks are further upstream in the reconversion into gas of the LNG liquid and in connecting to the gas grid.  ...

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US shale oil companies are returning more cash to investors than investing in increasing oil production in 2022. As oil demand increases with an embargo on Russian oil in Europe, production by US shale oil companies in 2022 has increased only slightly. WSJ reports that 9 out of the largest 10 oil companies in the US returned $9.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the first quarter of 2022, 54% more than they invested in new oil development.

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This article clearly shows that Russia is turning the corner for full scale use of western technology to tap oil and gas fields in the North. Note the efforts to bring in western expertise include- 1. Efforts to hire Donald Evans, former U.S. Commerce Secretary, to be Chairman of Rosneft. Evans turned down the offer. The hiring of Peter O'Brien a former Morgan Stanley investment banker as chief financial advser.2. With China National Petroleum as a strategic partner. 2. The financial backing and expertise of state run oil companies around the world now give them the ability to contract directly with Schlumberger or Baker Hughes or other oil field technology suppliers. This changes the whole playing field with less need to negotiate with the major oil companies and the ability to do it themselves at their own pace and strategic advantage and execute their own oil policy. Previously negotiating with the oil companies meant giving up some of the ownership of the oil fields to the oil companies in return for the technology. The oil services companies sell the technologies on a fee basis. 3. The pressure to move ahead aggressively with new technology. Estimates from IEA in Paris by Chief Economist Fatih Birol, show that increasing oil production by one and half million barrels a day to level of ten and half million barrels a a day requires Russia to invest $900 billion dollars by 2030 or about 40 billion a year. The only way to generate this kind of investment is to grow its oil development capabilities, keep prices high but stable, invest in the latest technology and bring some of it inhouse....

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COP30 becomes a disappointment in Brazil with no mention of fossil fuels. With even Brazil divided with Lula and Brazil's Congress supporting agribusiness and the oil industry. There is a clear perception that cost of living and development concerns have to be given recognition and balanced with climate change goals. This is true also for the US, EU, India and China. These countries are still moving ahead with climate change goals but realize that they have to strike a balance. On the other side are Saudi Arabia and Russia, other oil producing countries that want to delay climate change for as long as possible. These fossil fuel producers opposed mention of fossil fuels and making a transition out of fossil fuels a major priority at COP30.  

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Helene Cooper and Worth point to the vacillating response to the Arab Spring and movement for democracy and freedom in the Middle East of the Obama administration and President Obama. The dangerous overtones of this lack of U.S. leadership in the region as the U.S. completes a withdrawal from Iraq without an agreement for a residual presence, sees diplomacy reaching an impasse with Iran's development of nuclear weapons, and the Syrian civil war drawing in Turkey with its long border with Syria, and drawing in Saudi Arabia as a defendor of Sunnis in Syria. The stakes for Russia in Syria were minimal compared to that of people in the Middle East and the U.S., yet it had an outsized influence with its early military assistance to the Assad regime and the lack of U.S. leadership to resolve the situation in Syria in favor of the democracy movement.

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The BBC looks at Germany's scramble for energy in 2022. Germany is now doing everything for a winter without Russian gas- that means coal, LNG, new supplies from Qatar and the US. EU wants 15% cut in consumption, more efficient use and less use of energy. And boosting investments in renewable energy.

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The propaganda war taking place in Russia and China, and anti-western sentiment promoted on Chinese social media Weibo with the linking of Ukraine with the issues China faces in Taiwan. A kind of Monroe doctrine thinking that prevails about legitimate spheres of influence of Russia and China. Under the Monroe doctrine the US considered South America its sphere of influence during the administration of US president Monroe in the 19th century when such thinking about spheres of influence prevailed. A closer look shows that this was a policy against restoring Spanish or French colonization of newly independent nations in South America such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Mexico. It was put forth in an annual message to Congress in 1823 by president Monroe.  It had the support of Thomas Jefferson and James Madison, founding fathers of America. Originally it was intended to be a joint British-American declaration by Canning and Monroe. In this sense even the superficial notion of America supporting such spheres of influence is based on protecting liberty of nations that suffered colonization such as Mexico, Venezuela, Peru, Argentina and gained independence from Spain. Around 1823 when it was stated it was the British Navy that prevented any recolonization by Spain or France. Under president Theodore Roosevelt it was used to keep European powers from invading Venezuela in 1903 to enforce the payment of debts Venezuela had with European countries. ...

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Xi has chosen upward mobility for the Chinese people in all parts of the country including rural areas, reducing disparities in income, tackling climate change over the very hyper growth that has caused climate change and wreaks havoc in floods and fires across the planet. By the Chinese dream is meant that China would have a fair chance to match the western world with its own culture, language, creativity of its people, and he has chosen to do this in away that respects China's history and struggles with imperialist Britain, and the imperial powers in the modern period since 1500. It only poses a threat to the US if the US does not also invest in its own people, follows misguided military adventures overseas, and does not invest in its own manufacturing and technological potential at home. Historically the imperial powers were Britain, France, Germany, Russia. The US under Woodrow Wilson and under FDR pursued policies that were at odds with the imperial powers and favored a China that could build the potential of its own people far beyond what the imperial powers intended- for India, Turkey, China, Vietnam, and the rest of Asia. At each step of the way to 1948 the US policy remained true to this. Even the Cold War was a struggle against an imperial power- Russia which under the Bolsheviks and even today follows imperial minded policies for Eastern Europe. The Biden administration and the Xi administration in China are really not that far apart in pursuing policies that support people from all parts of their countries, and are resolute in the fight against climate change making growth conform with respecting the earth. ...

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Ideas for a two state solution are revived in 2023. The previous efforts that went astray are shown in this report in The Washington Post. It would have to be creative and bring together sentiment across the whole populations in the region that become weary of conflict, and through the efforts of the US, EU, China, India and Russia, Arab states that see the potential for and need to focus their efforts on development for their people following the pandemic- without the kind of conflicts in the Middle East that have diverted vital resources needed for development.

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U.S. president Obama called Libya and the policy of not following up on helping establish a stable democratic government in Libya his biggest mistake. Kristof of the NYT says people looking back would say Syria and not establishing safe zones is Obama's biggest mistake. He describes the 470,000 deaths in Syria as a huge tragedy that could have been avoided to a large extent by setting up safe zones. In addition the UN estimates that millions of refugees on a scale similar to the partition of India in 1947 were created.There is bipartisan opinion on this. Kristof cites General Cartwright's opinion in a conversation he had with Cartwright that this should have been done. Others who agree are Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton's Secretary of State, who spoke at the Democratic Convention about how America helped change her life as a young refugee after Russia's invasion of Czechoslovakia following Prague Spring. Albright says force should be used carefully so as not to aggravate the situation but action taken where needed, something that was done successfully under Bill Clinton in the Bosnian conflict following Serbia's ethnic cleansing policy under Milosevic. Not only that, with the diplomacy of ambassador Holbrooke Clinton was able to negotiate the peace accords that hold till today- a huge achievement.  Kori Schake, director of defense strategy in the George W. Bush White House also agrees. This would have improved U.S. relations with Turkey as this was a key Turkish request. And it would have reduced the dimensions of the refugee crisis in Europe, which has hurt the European Union. The Brexit "No" vote many in Britain have attributed to ads showing refugees in endless numbers streaming across Europe's borders. Similar ads were used in Austria's elections. Kristof points out that Secretary of State Kerry's job of negotiating a peace is difficult in these conditions. Another issue raised by Kristof is the lack of Obama's leadership in helping the refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, as he points out only 41% of this is funded. David Miliband former British Foreign Secretary, who heads the International Rescue Committee , says 200,000 Syrian kids are growing up in Lebanon without an education. George Washington counseled against getting involved in the wars on the European continent for a young nation, this advice was not followed in the Reagan and other administrations without showing the carefulness needed before action is taken. As Hillary Clinton has once pointed out the situation has resembled a pendulum swinging in the other direction under president Obama, and former Defense Secretary, Panetta, has expressed similar views. Hillary Clinton and Leon Panetta, Gates, Gen. Jones, served in the first term of the Obama administration, many of these mistakes were made in the second term by president Obama and his White House advisors Dennis McDonough, Valerie Jarrett who clearly lacked the deep foreign policy experience of Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta (who served under Bill Clinton), and Gates who served under many presidents). ...

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Venezuela faces an uncertain future after U.S. efforts to support Mr. Guaido and call for new free and fair elections have failed. With help from Russia the Venezuelan economy is showing signs of recovery from the steep decline and high inflation in 2019. Oil production is expected to reach 1 million barrels a day in 2020 after falling to 650,000- 700,000 barrels a day in 2019. Russia's oil company Rosneft provides critical help for Venezuelan oil sales and maintenance in oil fields.  National Security Adviser John Bolton is faulted for his advice to president Trump on Venezuela, that merely voicing support for 36 year old Guaido, would lead to regime change without action from the U.S. With the recovery in Venezuela with help from Russia and Cuba, Mr. Guaido's popularity has dropped by 20 points to 38%, according to a Venezuelan pollster Datanalisis. Most Cubans and Venezuelans in the U.S. are in Florida where there is support for new elections, and Mr. Trump continues to support Mr. Guaido. The lack of support for change from other countries including Europe, India, Turkey, and Mexico have led to a stalled situation in Venezuela. There is concern for the steep inflation, the migration of about 4.5 million Venezuelans, the shortages of critical supplies as a result of the economic collapse in 2019. The situation is stabilizing for the government yet the future of Venezuela with U.S. sanctions and weak economy leaves Venezuela in a precarious situation. Venezuela continues to be an example of how well meaning changes for social justice can lead to political changes that bring about economic collapse. This happens  when business and the economy flounder under mismanagement and corruption under crony socialism, a variant of crony capitalism. The old capitalist class and the privileged families who ran the country under its old two party system are gone. Replaced with a new class. The trying out of untested economic ideas in the quest for social balance leads to economic mismanagement, loss of critical human resources which leave the country, and a higher degree of poverty with shortages than before.  Today in Latin America Brazil shows how allowing generous pension benefits at the expense of basic needs and public services in the budget can hurt the economy. Argentina's overborrowing once again shows how this leads to IMF loans and harsh economic austerity. Chile shows how not financing pensions and public services can lead to collapse of public confidence and riots. Venezuela shows how the quest for social justice and reducing privilege can itself get flawed, leading to mass migration of as many as 4.5 million citizens. This happens under models that vary from free enterprise models to socialist or nationalist models showing that models can be less relevant than good sense and good management. In the beginning and for some time each of these models worked well, commodity price supported booms concealed real problems. Avoiding extremes, prudent spending, good investment and hard work, investment in education and infrastructure, building consensus, and good management, is critical for the future to avoid the bad outcomes facing much of Latin America. A lesson also for Asian and African countries that basic virtue is more important than socialism or free enterprise or nationalism when it comes to development.   ...

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Goldstein at the Energy Policy Research Foundation sees a moderation in demand for oil holding the increase to less than 1 million barrels a day. Goldstein sees improvements in crude oil supply, spare refining capacity,and product inventories which should help moderate prices. A lot depends on how the slowdown in the US affects Russia, India, China and Brazil. China's export based economy is likely to be affected and India and Russia to a lesser extent. Already the stock markets worldwide have come down in synchronized fashion in January 2007 leading to action by the Federal Reserve in the USA. There is likely to be a slowing down worldwide with Europe and India and Russia doing better than the USA. The USA may already be in recession. On the supply side the investments in Saudi Arabia and other places in OPEC and production increase in Russia should lead to supply increase of 2.5 million barrels a day according to analysts. At these supply and demand levels prices could range from $65 to $80, with a consensus of $80 under present conditions. There is a possibility of it going down to the $60 range if global economic conditions get worse and consequently demand decreases more. A price in the $60 range will still be needed to increase the incentives of exploration and production of new oil sources and to pay the higher costs of exploration and drilling for oil, especially in remote difficult locations like Russian Siberia and in deep sea offshore locations....

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Oil prices at the pump for automobiles are declining for the seventh straight week. Prices declined to about $4. In Texas the average is about $3.67 a gallon. California has the highest gas prices at an average of $5.46 a gallon. The price decline is a result of rapidly slowing growth in China. China and India are still getting oil supplies from Russia which frees up oil supplies for the US to import. 

Public in the US is also cutting back on driving and the miles driven is likely to see a drop of 5-10% this summer. There is better planning of trips to combine errands. This helps combating climate change through conservation efforts that were neglected during the last decade.

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International issues took on larger significance for the U.S. Federal Reserve in September 2015 as it looked at a small increase in interest rates. Schwartz points to the memories of the 1997 emerging market crisis and how fragile economies like Mexico were adversely impacted by rising rates in the U.S.. Mexico needed a large bank bailout and contagion spread to other countries. Kenneth Rogoff says the risks are real with declining commodity prices and falling currencies of emerging markets such as Brazil, Indonesia and Russia. Ripple effects would carry over to India and other countries. The sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy in the second half of 2015 was too recent for the Fed to take any sort of risk in September 2015.

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Russia ships nuclear fuel, the uranium fuel rods for the Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran, two weeks after the new US intelligence estimate on Iran, after stalling for some time. The Bushehr plant will be under the inspection supervision and control of the Atomic Energy Agency, and Russia has obtained guarantees that the AEA will be allowed to ensure that the fuel will only be used for the power plant. Note that the U.S. was informed two weeks ago about this, and the U.S. quietly supported the idea now with the idea that it encourages Iran to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. What it does is to change the whole picture about Iran as a threat to peace in the Middle East. See the article about Khatami, former President's comments at the University of Tehran, recent link, and the Democrats asking for diplomatic solutions to the differences between Iran and the U.S. The Bush administration tacitly following this path after a lot of rhetoric. Oil prices escalated in late 2007 because there was uncertainty about where this might lead. This situation is now reversed. ...

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German Foreign Ministry is to take up question of dependence on China in 2026, and a commission will look into it. Yet this comes 2, 3 or 4 years too late. Germany is scrambling to develop it's foreign policy. German Defense officials in the military say they no longer have 24 contact with their US counterparts. Germany is pulling Britain and France with it to counter any signs of weakness in Europe, so that the three countries can act as a counter weight to the US, and to Russia allied with China. Merz is now called the foreign policy chancellor. So much has changed from the Merkel days which are years that were wasted in infrastructure, digital, foreign policy, and migration policies that make sense for people's ease of living. Germans may have underestimated Merz in the way they overestimated Merkel, lacking the clear view of what the future requires from Germany in a world filled with China, India, Brazil and the other nations of Europe, and the US, a world which requires confidence and investment. ...