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Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...

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Expensive new fuel saving technology investments at BMW to meet new pollution control standards in Europe (130 grams per kilometer) and boost fuel efficiency in the US. This year only 40% of its cars will meet 140 grams per kilometer. With a production total of 1.4 million cars BMW faces sizable investments with smaller car volume than the likes of Toyota and Honda. R&D costs have climbed 22% in first half 2007 to 1.5 billion euros. BMW has agreements to jointly develop some of the new technology with Daimler and GM on hybrid gasoline-electric drive cars. Its developing a new 3 liter diesel engine for the US market that cleaner and fuel efficient. BMW plans also to boost advertising budgets to promote itself as a fuel efficient carmaker conscious of the environment, See related article. It plans to expand in India China and Russia to get a share of the expanding markets there. BMW's second quarter profit fell 23% on a 7% gain in revenues underlying the additional investments BMW faces. CEO Reithofer wants to increase profits to above last years 3.75 billion euros. ...

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Global aid to agriculture in developing countries is about $5 billion a year. Mr Obama made the decision to double U.S> aid to developing countries farmers to more than $1 billion ayear in 2010. THe NYT reports that with the G8 meeting in Italy in July, America will spend $3.5 billion dollars over 3 years for helping farmers in developing countries. This according to Michael Fromans, an Obama adminsitration official is going to be new money. As far as the other G8 countries are concerned it could include old money for the total $15 billion committed. Since the worst hit areas for agriculture are in Africa, and Africa has lost a lot of ground in development in the last 20 years, suffering neglect in aid to farmers over 20 years both form the American administrations and their own governments, it is surprising that the amount and the details for where it would go in Africa are not revealed. Mr Obama has grasped the need not just for shipping food assistance from the USA, but need to help farmers. He agrees with ANdrew Natsios former head of Agency of International Development, who says that most of the poorest people in developing countries are farmers and herders living in the countryside, the crux of any effort to improve their lives has to start with agriculture. Obama advocates using the "tried and true agricultural methodfs and technologies that are cheap and are efficient but can have huge impact" in the lives of people. Malawi, is a good example, say Prof. Sachs of Columbia University, as subsidies for fertilizer sharply increased food production. Sachs says it is possible to double or triple food production by giving small-holder farmers access to high yielding seeds, fertilizer and agricultural extension services. But more needs to be done and devloping countries themselves that have made progress like India, China and Brazil can provide their know-how and experts and should have been brought into this, which is another reason why there is no reason for a G-8 summit of countries of European origin. An enlarged organization can bring in the resources and ideas of all the major countries in the world, to especially bear in on Africa, where alot needs to be done. Just to get an idea the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization says the global economic crisis will put another 100 million people into facing hunger this year....

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Questions raised in this Hindustan Times report about whether India's participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization makes sense now after the pandemic and the new arrangement in global affairs. New supply chains and trade alliances formed after the pandemic are likely to be very different after the pandemic and formed with dominant consideration of each nation's economic interests including manufacturing in the home country.  India joined the SCO to forge ties with the central Asian countries. But this no longer makes sense as India's manufacturing ties with individual nations such as Britain, Japan, Taiwan and the U.S., European Union may make more sense and build on "Made in India" initiatives than older thinking and approaches. Britain after Brexit, Japan and Taiwan after a realignment of trade relations, are keen on expanding business and trade, investment ties with India. India has many opportunities to pursue for mutual economic benefit with these countries. Germany, France and other EU countries, the U.S. are also keen on expanding trade and investment with India to boost their economies after the pandemic. This is a crucial juncture for India to plan for the next 10 years for a changing world in which India becomes a dominant story in manufacturing. Australia's participation in the RCEP may also not be long term under the prevailing climate of trade relations with China. Australia India trade can be expanded with new efforts.  ...

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Case-Shiller home price index shows 18.5 % drop year over year for December 2009, for single family homes in 20 major metropolitan areas. The Conference Board Index for consumer confidence dropped from 37.4 in January 2009 to 25 in February 2009. Of the 5000 households surveyed more 90% said they expected conditions would be the same or worse in the next 6 months. The Obama $275 billion plan for homeowners does not address the weakest cities in the market which are in places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and much of Florida and Southern California, where prices have fallen 40% or more from their peak. This is because mortgages that are under water are not included, these are mortgages where more is owed on the house than the house is worth, and is ocurring faster in places where price declines are the steepest. One expert Martin Feldstein who is also on the Obama advisory panel has insisted since early 2008 that these homeowners under water have no rational incentive to continue making payments. What this does is to make consumers to postpone purchases like autos and hold back or cut back on all kinds of spending. In this global economy this means places like China's coastal regions which export to the US get hit hard and in turn exporters to china like Germany also get hit hard as what starts in the USA gets passed on theough the global economy from one region to another. Which also means US exports to Asian and other emerging market countries of tech goods and aircraft are in turn hit hard. As Republicans and Democrats follow their ideological leanings they cancel each other out in the debate, as Prof. Potter at Harvard an expert on economic strategy points out in a link, resulting in necessary actions not being taken and no clear direction. ...

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Carrie Lam, Chief Secretary for Administration of Hong Kong SAR government from 2012-2017, led the negotiations on Beijing's side with the Hong Kong movement for more autonomy. She did not back down in the negotiations and is favored by Beijing over the former Financial Secretary Mr. Tsang. Tsang spent some years in the U.S. compared to Lam who spent some time in the UK for education. Chinese official are skeptical of Mr Tsang because he said in the past that more legitimacy for Beijing could be gained with further autonomy for Hong Kong.  Tsang is supported by the autonomy movement in the election to be decided by the 1200 member election committee, and Ms. Lam by pro-Beijing members. Tsang also has good relations with the Chinese government and has higher popularity with the public, but his early years in the U.S. are paradoxically making Chinese officials skeptical, even though Ms. Lam's husband and two sons are British citizens.

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Victor Cha, a professor at Georgetown University, describes China's foreign policy committment to maintaining a divided Korea becacuse of fears of a unified pro-western neighbor to the south. He sees the need for China to change its policy and work with the U.S., South Korea and Japan for a lasting solution for North Korea. Also absent from the calculations of the countries involved is the future of the North Korean people, emphasized in the editorial by the editorial Board of the Washington Post on Dec. 20, 2011.

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Robert Reich, a former Labor Secretary, says that instead of "rebalancing" with Chinese consumers buying more American goods and China exporting less to the USA, things are headed in the opposite direction. Why? Because at the macroeconomic level China is devoting more of its country's resources to production capacity. Chinese consumers are taking home a smaller proportion of the total economy. In 2008 personal consumption amounted to 35% of the total economy, whereas in 1998 it was 50%. Capital investment in the same 10 years went up 35% to 44%. Chinese continue to save and these savings are going into infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. There is even a social twist to the savings, with fewer young Chinese women than men parents with boys have to compete in the marraige market and save assets for this. Households are also saving to support more elderly people as population is aging quickly with population policies. All this means that with all the talk (see links to Niall Ferguson and Krugman), the situation will likely roll on in this manner till things reach an impasse, or there is a strong political backlash in the USA which leads to stronger trade actions by the government, or there is a crisis. Meanwhile the trade deficit is headed higher and Chinese foreign reserves will go far above the current $2.3 trillion. And the Europeans will also be getting restless with their trade imbalance, as the euro edges higher and the yuan remians pegged to the dollar, leading to trade distortions. ...

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China faces three main challenges and how well it handles them will determine if China does well in the future because the things that helped China in the last 30 years of development are now gradually coming to a close. The three main challenges are a changing work force and the gradual phasing out of the demographic dividend thats responsible according to some experts for a third of the progress this far, the gap between the rich and the poor, and severely constrained resources and supplies of energy and environmental resources. On the first its not something China can do to much about, on the second its going to have to have a more balanced development and repair the network of social services and redirect resources to the poorer sections (see the link to the conference at Lindau, Germany and Nobel Prize Winning economists opinions on this issue). This will bring more discussion and challenges about how to proceed as a lot of actions to build new infrastructure and new construction has been done by taking over land where needed. And on the third challenge has not been done so well so far as the amount of energy required to each yuan of economic output has not changed much, seeing a 3.7% improvement over 2006 in 2007 and only a 2.9% improvement in the first half of 2008 over 2007. All this is why Secretary Paulson cautions that many American might be worrying about the wrong thing, China overtaking the USA, what really is the worry he says is whether serious troubles in China will affect the stability of the USA and global economies....

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Bank of America plans to sell its $8 billion stake in China Construction Bank. Bank of America will post a $3.3 billion gain on the sale of these shares. This lowers Bank of America's stake in China Construction Bank to 5% from 10%. Buyers include Temasek Holdings of Singapore. Bank of America's new CEO Brian Moynhan is trying to sell noncore assets to bring the bank closer to meeting new reserve capital requirements set by the Federal Reserve. These steps include selling its consumer credit card unit in Canada, and plans to sell other non-U.S. credit card units. Warren Buffett recently made a $5 billion investment in Bank of America. Restructuring of consumer units will lead to job reductions of 10,000. Earlier this year the bank made 6000 job reductions.

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Robert Kaiser, former managing editor of The Washington Post, reviewed this book on Joe McCathy in The Washington Post on August 7, 2020. It shows the link with today of Senator Joe McCarthy and Roy Cohn, the then 27 year old lawyer chief counsel of the senate subcommittee on investigation when Joe McCarthy became chairman in Jan. 1953. The book is-  Demagogue The Life and Long Shadow of Senator Joe McCarthy by Larry Tye. Roy Cohn passed on some of the methods used at that time to Mr. Trump. Kaiser points out that the senator Joe McCarthy assembled "a coalition of the aggrieved." Tye shows that it started with the junior senator from Wisconsin making a speech in West Virginia for Lincon Day dinner to the Republican ladies of Wheeling, W. Va. The senator used it to talk about threat of communists working in the State Department. He claimed there were 205 Communists. Today we know that this was just made up by McCarthy, at a time when Winston Churchill made the speech about the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union and a sense of shock in America at the People's Republic of China being formed in 1949 under CCP chairman Mao tse tung. McCarthy saw this as an opportunity to gain prominence and a Senate career. What is seen from this carefully researched book is that for a while it succeeded in putting many of the Nation's best leaders on the defense. This includes Harry Truman, Eisenhower himself who disdained McCarthy's and Cohn's methods, Gen George Marshall who was a mentor to Dwight EIsenhower, Joe Stilwell, and other military leaders who ran the 1940's war effort under Marshall in Europe against the Nazis and in China against the Japanese imperialists. On the domestic side it included the head of TVA and the new Atomic Agency setup by president Truman. Gallup said at that time of McCarthy's 38% support in the US following his censure in US Senate by 67-22  -even if it was known that McCarthy killed five innocent children they would still go along with him. Tye writes that in that atmosphere similar to the sense of shock at China's rise and America's loss of manufacturing and falling behind in infrastructure by 2016, in that atmosphere if one told a small lie or big lie it made not much difference in public's penalty or censure, then why not tell a whopper of a lie. This became the ethic for a while in 2016-2024 similar to the period till the collapse of McCarthyism in America by 1957 with McCarthy's death in 1957 and in 1960 the election of John F. Kennedy. What is forgotten is that Richard Nixon a young senator from California was part of the group in Congress, so that in some shape or form it existed and remained part of the Reagan efforts to push back against the Soviets that led to wars in Afghanistan and then Iraq sapping the Nation's energies and resources and with faulty economic theory allowed China to dominate key industries and outspend America in infrastructure investment, creating the kind of shock that led to the second McCarthyist decade under Mr. Trump. ...

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Even though immigration makes the headlines for the average German and daily German life polls and surveys show says the NYT that the main concerns center around a failing economy. For 5 years Germany has experienced little growth. According to Eurostat, Germany's GDP growth rate is 2023 -0.2% 2022: 1.37% 2021: 3.67% 2020 -4.1% Tankersley and Eddy report from Lutherstadt Wittenberg Eastern Germany. As Germany's economy slows companies may move jobs and manufacturing to Austria and France says one CEO of a company that makes fertilizer and additives for diesel motors. This could lead to loss of 10,000 jobs in an already depressed region. The problems faced buy German industry are increasing with higher costs of energy- even after prices have come down energy is 20% costlier than the European average according to Eurostat. Industry leaders say this is the result partly of efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions. Increasing competition from China means Germany cannot compete as before. Investment in public infrastructure has not kept up with crumbling roads and bridges and a rail system with underinvestment and plagued with delays. Investment in digital technology has lagged behind China, India and France.   ...

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The story of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine is the story of 2 chikdren of Turkish immigrants to Germany. Sahin the son of a engineer working at a Ford factory in Cologne, and Tureci the daughter of a surgeon working at a hospital in Mainz Germany. Sahin was born in 1965 on the Mediterranean coast in Iskerundun, Turkey and he went to Germany when he was 4 years old, his father being recruited in a new effort to rebuild Germany with foreign labour. Both are motivated by scientific research and the drive to come up with some method to tackle cancer for patients with new research and cures.  Both did their doctoral dissertation on experimental therapies at the Johannes-Gutenberg University of Mainz in Germany, and both joined the faculty there. Sahin spent years studying the mRNA , genetic instructions that can be delivered to the body to help it defend itself against viruses and other threats. Much of this mRNA research was already at an advanced stage in January 2020 when Sahin heard about the coronavirus in China. At that point he saw the potential of retargeting the mRNA research to tackling the coronavirus. By this time he already had his own company with over 200 million euros invested in it  by investors including Helmut Jeggle, now supervisory board chairman of BioNTech. This report says he sat down one Saturday, January 25, 2020 and working on his computer designed the template for 10 possible coronavirus vaccines, one of which would become BNT162b2, the vaccine now approved in Britain. On the same day he told a surprised Jettle that he would refocus the company on the new virus that had not yet hit Europe. Shain he says cited the Hong Kong flu that claimed 4 million lives. Why Pfizer. Pfizer had already been working with BioNTech on a new flu vaccine based on mRNA technology. A cooperation deal was signed with Pfizer in March for organizing clinical trials, manufacture globally, and distribute the vaccine. BioNTech then acquired a U.S. company and a German pharmaceutical factory in Germany. ...

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11 Pacific Rim nations form the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2018. The Obama administration supported the trade pact alienating supporters in its union base particularly in the midwestern states. Mr. Trump opposed the TPP in his election campaign and made it a significant issue for swing voters in midwestern states after job losses in the auto industry. With the opposition of president Trump the U.S. decided to withdraw from TPP.  The 11 nations agreeing to join a revised agreement are Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. So far six countries have formally approved the deal, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Singapore, New Zealand and Japan, setting the stage for two rounds of tariff reductions starting December 30, 2018. Agricultural products duties will be duty free within 3 to 7 years including for Japan and Mexico. Australia, New Zealand, Canada are major agricultural exporters. Japan supported the deal as a way to counter China's influence in the region. In the U.S. the gains would be in intellectual property rights but losses for workers in the auto and manufacturing industries, a point Mr. Trump recognized in his election campaign as he campaigned in the midwestern states. Mr. Obama pursued TPP over objections of workers organizations and unions including auto workers union, with his advisors suggesting this as a way to counter China's influence in the region. By 2018 the Democratic party support base fractured on this as one of the major issues.   ...

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The huge risks the misallocated stimulus capital from real estate speculation poses for the Chinese economy. China's government rapidly expanded lending after the 2008 global financial crisis. One estimate is that about 10 trillion yuan in new loans were made in 2009, over twice the amount of 2008, expanding the loan portfolio and money supply by one third. A major problem is vacant homes as Chinese put their money in second homes as an investment. Chinese are not investing in the stock market because of the volatility, and with the low yields in bonds and banks money is going into real estate. According to a Morgan Stanley economist, about 25-30% of private commercial and housing space is vacant. This happens just as middle class Chinese are being priced out of the housing market. Prices went up by 12% in the housing market this year according to the China National Bureau of Statistics. Couples wanting to leave their parent's homes find it difficult to do so. It was the topic for a Chinese TV series "Dwelling Narrowness." ...

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President Goodluck Jonathan as "Mr. Clean" aroused many of the same hopes now aroused by the election of Buhari as president of Nigeria. Under Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria's foreign reserves declined from $50 billion to $33 billion, and there is $1 billion in the sovereign wealth fund. About $20 billion in pilfering of state funds was reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria, but no action was taken by Jonathan. Indians may pride themselves on a better performance, yet prime minister Singh of India, seen as "Mr. Clean," allowed auctioning of telecom licenses in the second term, that had to be cancelled because of corruption. Throughout emerging markets not just in oil producing countries, poverty remains entrenched, because funds that should go into infrastructure and services are misused, which creates a disincentive for foreign investment, further adding to the problems in these countries. India and Nigeria are the two fastest growing countries in the planet, and the unspoken fear is that the demographic dividend with so many young people will be wasted by corrupt and inefficient management of the economy and resources of the two countries. The time lost in the last years of the Singh administration and the four years of the Jonathan administration will never be regained, the hopes of millions of young people are dashed again and again, and the goodwill of Europe and the U.S. eager to participate with the latest technologies in the development of the two countries, as they have done in China, is wasted....

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The NYT's Kristof gives this exceptional report on the use of cancer causing chemicals all around us in many consumer products. With the increased use of chemicals has come the tripling of asthma rates in the last 25 years, leukemia up by 1% a year, increasing obesity, and breast cancer rates increasing from 1% in 1975 to 12% today with only some of it from better detection. Doctors at the Mt. Sinai School of Medicine in New York, say American girls who had puberty at the age of 17 in 1800, now have puberty at the age of 14, even 12. Earlier menstrual cycles increase the risk of breast cancer because of increased exposure to estrogen. Studies show exposure to pesticides, PCB's and other cancer causing chemicals increase the risk of cancer, and a link to early puberty. Asian women moving to the U.S. are also experiencing higher rates of breast cancer as they move to societies with higher use of chemicals in daily life, say experts at Mt. Sinai. Poor eating habits and lifestyles with less exercize are also to blame, but chemicals also play a role. Americans are moving towards shunning packaged processed foods for fresh food in their diet, and more are learning the benefits of regular exercize, but the same degree of public awareness is lacking for the extensive use of chemicals in our consumer society. In other societies around the world that are copying us such as in China, India and Brazil, the situation is even worse, with the spread of a reckless idea that modernization requires jettisoning health safety concerns. Even a simple pizza box has PFAC's chemicals made to make the box resistant to grease. In 2015 where products are labeled environmentally friendly by large companies to attract buyers and build the right image in the minds of consumers, consumers asking questions and making better choices make a difference by offering a seal of approval. Carpets have chemicals, and most disposable plastic containers contain chemicals that could seep into the food if heated. The use of plastic containers and microwaves is common practice in todays society, where less cooking is done on the stove than in the period before 1960. The sheer size of the chemicals developed since 1950 is staggering- more than 80,000 chemicals according to the Children's Environmental Health Center at Mt. Sinai. And this Center says less than 20% have been tested for toxicity. ...

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Vietnam has seen rapid growth in the last 20 years as it joined the shifted away from the state planned economy similar to China in the late 1980's, joined the worlds trading system, freed up the economy and attracted foreign investment. But something doesn't seem right. Looking at the Vietnam growth curve, growth in Vietnam's GDP vs growth of world GDP the curve seems to be following a similiar pattern, there is a sharp downturn in the early 1990's with a V shaped bounce back and a sharp downturn in early 2000 followed by another V shaped bounce back in growth to this date. As America begins its first of several years of credit contraction and investment contraction followed by similiar patterns in some European economies like the UK, Ireland, Spain and a slowdown in the rest of Europe, the question hangs over growth in Asia, from South Korea and Taiwan where recent elections reflected these concerns in electing politicians who promised new ways of kickstaring their economic growth, to China, India and Vietnam where the concerns are about how to meet the growing expectations of the large numbers of people, probably the majority of the people in these countries who have been left out of the economic development experienced in urban areas and by the new middle class. Corruption, the stock market collapse or severe setback, and a slowdown in their main export markets, and are problems shared by all 3 countries China, India and Vietnam. India and Vietnam share the problems of a poor infrastructure. In this new environment Asian countries will have to come up with innovative solutions to maintain growth and quality of growth, as some of the chaotic growth of the last 20 years may have come at some cost like that of the environment in the case of China and better solutions can be found than growth that sacrifices goals in health care and other necessary goals of balanced development....

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Unemployment in Germay has dropped from 12% 5 years ago to 7% in 2010. The largest union IG Metall (with 3.4 million members) and other worker unions showed wage restraint. IG Metall agreed to keep wages the same in 2010 except for a one time payment of 320 euros. This empasis on job preservation may change as wages have been restrained since reforms in 2005. At that time unemployment benefits were cut and people with less skills were induced to take up lower paying jobs. German recovery is also helped by the short week Kurzarbeit program with companies retaining workers, the government paying upto 67% of the wages lost from the shorter week and workers agreeing to a reduction in wages. Companies like BMW are hiring and BMW has 1000 jobs to fill in its R&D, purchasing and sales. And Germany has benefited in sales from stimulus in China and the growing demand for automobiles and equipment from China, a situation that auto executives believe may not last.

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Toyota's changes in its global architecture in 2011-2013. Reorganization to build amore tight knit management structure for better responsiveness and decisionmaking. The focus is on getting rid of bureaucracy after years of growth that led to excessive and sometimes indirect reporting layers. For instance, chief engineers now report directly to top product planning executives to speed decisionmaking and make new product introductions faster. Regional managers are now shrunk to three groups: North America and China; Japan and Europe; Australia, Russia and emerging markets. It is interesting to note that China and the U.S. are put together- the logic is based on the idea that the buyers in each group tend to have similiar buyer behaviour for vehicles, say Toyota managers. Another significant effort focusses on increasing the use of standardized parts to 50% for vehicles that are of similiar size. The Prius C, the redesigned Camry and the Etios subcompact in India, were cited recently by CEO Akio Toyoda as examples of products that have utilized these changes in methods and approach....

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Higher oil prices and a steep rise of about 50% this year are leading countries like China and India to consider raising prices for gasoline to promote conservation after years of subsidizing fuel because the needs of poorer people in these countries.

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Michael Fathers reviews two detailed accounts of Mao's Great Leap Forward. From 1958-62 Mao launched an effort to industrialize China in its effort to surpass Krushchev's effort to surpass the U.S. and western nations in one decade. Yang Jingsheng's account in the book 'Tombstone,' is a result of decades of research to find what happened during this period. He lost his own father to starvation during this period when all Chinese agriculture was forced into communes with communal living and communal kitchens. The result were disastrous as agricultural production suffered badly leading to famines and loss of an estimated 45 million lives. The policy was continued even as the result showed a looming disaster by 1959. It was only by 1962 that Mao was forced to accept the failure of the program. As an editor of Xinhua news agency, Jingsheng had access to accounts of waht happened in provincial documents and archives. The other book reviewed is 'The Great Famine' by Frank Dikotter which provides an illuminating account of what happened in these years. Dikotter says the final responsibility rested with Mao for calling for higher grain deliveries from the countryside at the height of the famine and for continuing the policy of force and coercion leading to starvation- he quotes Mao who said: "It is better to let half the people die so that the other half can eat their fill." The truth about this period was hidden by propaganda and the mistake accounts of westerners who visited China including Francois Mitterand till the 1990's. Jasper Becker, a former correspondent in China for the Guardian, gave one of the first accounts of what had happened in "Hungry Ghosts: China's Secret Famine" (1996). What shocked readers was the extent of the dead, the violence, and the fear of speaking out even after 30 years. The fear of speaking out is evidenced in the pen name Mo Yan of the Nobel prize winner in Literature for 2012 which means do not speak out in Chinese because his parents were from a more affluent farming family in the village. Mo Yan uses animal and fairy tale characters and Chinese history in his novels and stories including his effort to describe the behaviour of arrogant local officials. The chronology of this period also tells a story. China's Communists took control in 1949, the famine and violent repression to establish the commune system occured in 1958-1962 only 8 years later, and the Great Proleterian Cultural Revolution was launched by Mao in 1966 and was to last a decade till his death in 1979- a period which saw a new effort of upending of China's countryside to establish communism....

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Hon Kongers have tripled the amount of renminbi they hold to about US$11 billion because of the clear path of yuan appreciation signaled by the government. It has appreciated 7.1% so far this year with the Chinese government controlling the changes in the exchange rate. Forward markets price in another 4.4% gain in the next 12 months. The flood of outside money is why the Chinese reserves have grown by $1.6 billion a day in 2008. At the end of June it stood at $1.81 trillion up 18% from the beginning of the year even though the trade surplus is down 12% from a year earlier and Shanghai's index of domestically owned stocks is down 49% this year. In the first half of 2008 analysts estimate about $50-$200 billion were brought into China even with the tight currency controls. All this new money creates inflationary pressures in China and the central bank knows that it poses risks for the financial system but China is also intesrested in maintaining growth so it may not want to kill this inflow altogether and some of it may go to finance investment in the country....

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Simon Denyer's interview with Vinod Rai, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India. Rai has persisted in uncovering corruption in India. He was appointed by prime minister Manmohan Singh from India's Finance ministry five years ago, and runs an organization with 63,000 employees with accountants in all Indian states. Reports by his agency have uncovered giving away of natural resources and telecom licenses worth billions of dollars. He describes the amounts involved as huge and attributes the increase in accountability of politicians and ministers to active citizens groups. The Indian media and Supreme Court have supported efforts to increase accountability. The CAG has constitutional protection. Rai sees the CAG's role as examining government spending to uncover irregularities and make it accountable to parliament. India is rare in this respect compared to China, Russia and other emerging market countries because of its vibrant media and democracy. A 2010 report uncovered corruption in giving away mobile phone network licenses and a 2012 report uncovered allocation of coal land without a competitive auction, with loss in government revenues estimated at $30 billion. The reports showed prime minister Singh aware of the irregularities but unable or unwilling to call for transparency and proper process. Rai's six year term expires in May 2013. ...

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Even China has not campaigned the way Canada, Mexico and British, American media have against DJT Tariffs because China knows it is basically about getting an even playing field when it is the only country with $1 trillion in trade in its favor in 2024, 12 times the Japanese high of $82 billion trade surplus in 2007. But why should China campaign when the American and British, German media are going to do the job for China? A simple quiz to K-12 would ask school children when is the last time a country has a $1 trillion trade surplus? Answer: Never. Greg Ip has written a few years back that the devastation of China outshoring of American factories and jobs was unlike the 1980's Japan trade invasion because of first China's size, second by the speed with which it happened at 10-14% Chinese GDP growth. There is a third Japan was an ally needing US for security and backed down, China's case is different it is challenging the US for control of the world economy and will fight this one over the long haul. Greg Ip of WSJ on the 53 countries asking to negotiate US Liberation Day April 2, 2025 Tariffs. These countries include Allies of the US in full support asking to negotiate Israel, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, India Allies of the US in partial support asking to negotiate Britain Allies of the US not in full support asking to negotiate Germany, France Allies of the US in the past campaigning against the US, asking to negotiate Canada, Mexico Not Allies of the US, not in full support, not campaigning against the US China A look at his list tells one only one thing, mostly all trading partners except for the $146 billion exports of the US which represents exports to China are the exports that are at risk if things don't work out on tariffs. This is what the media today WSJ added this last week to the NYT, Wash. Post and the BBC, Guardian of UK, German media will not tell the reader.  The DJT Tariffs and Tariff negotiations are Lighthizer Tariff negotiations which won the fight with Japan in the 1980's over unfair trade and gaining a level playing field. Lighthizer as Deputy US Trade Representative conducted the tough negotiations with Japan. He was USTR in 2016-2020 and his Deputy Jamieson is now USTR in 2025       ...