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AMR announces it will purchase 260 A320 planes from Airbus and 200 additional 737's from Boeing. This is the first order from Airbus since the 1980's. Airbus and Boeing have agreed to $13 billion in lease financing to fully cover 230 deliveries . AMR president Horton says financing has been arranged for all othe orders from 2013 to 2016 and for 80% of 2017. This is critical because AMR is still losing money. Its second quarter loss increased to $286 millon from $11 million the prior year. Total debt is at $17.1 billion on June 30, 2011 compared to $16.1 billon the prior year, and cash balance at $5.1 billion the same as prior year. The new order will help reduce fuel costs. They will use 35% less fuel per seat than the old MD-80 planes according to AMR CEO Arpey. The new engines on the aircraft deliveries of A320s and 737s in 2017 and 2018 will provide even more fuel efficiencies compared to the 737s and A320s for this model year. For this reason Standard &Poors says the large order and financial commitment by AMR does not affect its ratings. It said the order will result in an airline that is over time more profitable because of the fuel effiencies gained but also more heavily indebted. S&P estimates of fully adjusted debt are at $24 billon. For Boeing the order means a decision to go with a new engine 737 and not an all new model that would succeed the 737. The technology was there says Jim Albaugh, CEO of the Boeing commercial plane unit, but the production system was not clearly understood to get production to 60 planes a month and avoid delays. For Airbus the AMR order is a significant advance. Except for Southwest which has an all 737 fleet, AMR was the last holdout without any Airbus planes. And the decision by Boeing to stay with a new engine 737 means Airbus wil not have to worry about Boeing leapfrogging the A320neo, which is anew engine A320. ...

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Lawrence Summers, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, writes on August 2, the day the debt ceiling deal passed the U.S. Congress. His reaction to the deal is one of relief, cynicism and economic anxiety. Relief that the deal does no immediate damage to the economy, which he says is no small achievement. This comes from not denting the U.S. safety net of Medicaid, Social Security and other social programs in the midst of high unemployment. And raising the debt ceiling through 2012 avoids a repeat of the kind of tense negotiations that took place recently. Cynicism because with the revised information from the Commerce Department of 0.4% growth in the first quarter and 1.4% growth in the second quarter of 2011, the new forecast of U.S. budget deficits would be much higher in the years further out. A mere loss of one half percentage point in the annual rate of growth could add $1 trillion dollars to the national debt in 2021. Summers points out that Congress votes annually on discretionary spending and a current Congress cannot control what a future Congress does. Caps and sequester deals can be reformulated in 2013 by a new Congress. This deal says Summers has only confirmed the lower levels of spending already negotiated for 2011 and 2012, even though the estimates show $1 trillion in deficit reduction. For the remaining $1.2 trillion in reductions to be negotiated by the "super-committee" there is no baseline for these cuts- it is not stated whether this baseline is with the Bush high income tax cuts included or excluded. His economic anxiety comes from the low rate of growth in the first half of 2011 which suggest an economy at close to a standstill. He sees a one in three chance of a U.S. recession in the absence of any efforts to spur growth. Martin Feldstein was quoted on television business channels on August 2, saying he sees a 50% chance of the economy slipping back into a recession. Steps Summers advocates are a non-extension of the Bush high-income tax cuts which would add $1 trillion to deficit reduction, some entitlement reform, extension of the payroll tax cut, extension of unemployment insurance, and infrastructure maintenance....

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Problems facing India as it searches for a way to modernize the country, build infrastructure, and create strong jobs growth. Glaring weaknesses are evident in a number of areas which have not been addressed: a weak public education system, food poverty for people at the lower end worsening with today's 10% food inflation, child malnutrition, weak infrastructure building capabilities, growth in services but not enough in manufacturing to create jobs, a growing black economy, and a general acceptance of illegal behaviour that has increased with the increase in opportunities for corruption and bribes in a growing economy. The political governance is weak. The dependence on smaller regional parties in ruling coalition governments weakens initiative at the federal government level. The general lack of new political leadership, and the failure to develop new leaders in the Congress party because of the six decades long presence of the Nehru family. Some striking facts- the role of the black or underground economy has actually increased over the years. Arun Kumar, chairman of the Center for Economc Studies and Planning at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, says his estimates show it was 40% of GDP by 1996, and 50% by 2006. This means more business activity evades direct taxes, and less money is available for investments in education, infrastructure and healthcare. It also indicates a widespread tolerance of illegal activity and corruption. The other striking facts are that the calorie consumption by the bottom of the 50% of the population has been declining since 1987, according to a 2009-10 economic survey by India's Ministry of Finance. The modernization of the country appears not to be following the path taken in East Asia- by Japan, S. Korea and now China- where people moved in large migrations from farms and rural areas to cities and manufacturing jobs, resulting in gradual urbanization. Manufacturing in India is only 16% of GDP in 2009, the same as in 1991, according to the World Bank. Certain regions are doing better than others- Gujarat and the Punjab in the north, Tamilnadu, Karnataka in the south- with large population areas in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar lagging behind badly. ...

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WSJ Lingling Wei's interview with Ding Xuedong, chairman of China Investment Corporation on its plans and strategies for 2015-2016, and future years. China's government formed CIC in 2007 to improve the returns on its foreign exchange reserves, estimated at $3.8 trillion in 2015. China Investment Corporation had largely stayed with low yields on U.S. Treasury debt till 2007. CIC has about $650 billion in assets in 2015. Its strategies provide insights into how China sees the outlook for the global economy. Ding sees opportunities in real estate and infrastructure, with a focus on the U.S. and Europe for steady cash flows. He singles out the U.S. as of particular interest as its economy rebounds. Strategies also include paring down of energy holdings. Foreign holdings are now $220 billion and have increased by 16.6% since 2009. A special unit CIC Capital was formed recently to more directly participate in managing foreign holdings with a long term view. Earlier focus of CIC on natural resources and commodities is now shifting as the commodities crisis has reduced long term prospects in that sector. The plan for the future is to shift to an allocation where financial products such as stocks and bonds are about 50%, and long term assets such as infrastructure investments, real estate and other investment take up the other 50%. At the end of 2013 equities and fixed income represented 57.4% of CIC global assets, and 28.2% were in long term assets. Ding wants to see China as the No. 2 engine for the global economy after the U.S. as No. 1. He sees the prospects for Brazil, Russia and South Africa as poor, and is optimistic about good performance from India, Mexico and Nigeria. On Japan Ding is skeptical of prime minister Abe's plans because he sees the lack of structural reforms in the efforts leading to a kind of lazy effort in his view. CIC is learning from the experience of other national investment funds and improving its in-house investment and management capabilities. Ding has many years of experience with China's Finance Ministry, the Cabinet, and the State Council. ...

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Mark Landler of the NYT intervews Ben Bernanke at his office overlooking the Washington Mall, and Secretary Paulson in his Treasury office. Both men look back at events that led to Chinese savings financing excessive American consumption, and currency and other policies on both sides perpetuating the dependence of America on lowpriced Chinese products, and of China on the American export market. Now that this export market is collapsing it presents China with serious problems with unemployment in the export sector, and pesents America with the hangover from a consumption binge that now must be paid for with years of low or negative growth. Could this have been foreseen and if foreseen could things either have been mitigated or prevented. In March 2005, Prof. Bernanke at Princeton was not at the Fed (his Fed job started in 2006), and cautioned about the imbalances presented by Chinese savings finacing American consumption. But Bernanke saw this as a market phenomenon that would take years, even a decade to work itself out in a global economy. He said "for now, we have little choice except to be patient." The prevailing opinion among Greenspan, Bernanke and others was that the global economy worked in ways that were ultimately benign and regulation was not a good thing. After all the situation benefitted American consumers and kept inflation low while also providing China as an additional engine for global economic growth. The American economy it was believed was large and resilient, and it would not be adversely affected in the long run by such a large dependence on foreign savings. Only the positive effects were visible and the adverse effects were simply talked away as not serious for now. Zoellick, who was deputy secretary of state says that successful models are very hard to change, and Paulson says that without some kind of crisis its hard to get changes made once asituation gets entrenched. For China efforts to strengthen the currency that would slow exports and improve internal consumption were stymied by a reluctance to disturb the status quo, and Americans were lulled into complacency as years of low priced imports provided the best of both worlds, high growth and low inflation. ...

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Cerberus will lose control of GMAC, and this may be a good thing, as decisions at Cerberus and GMAC while under its control were made not in the interests of GM and its customers but of Cerberus,s efforts to extricate itself from its troubled investments. One of these decisions was the decision in September 2008 to raise the credit scores for prospective GM customers to 700 before approving credit. Johnson of Barclays Capital says that in November 2008 only 1% of GM's customers used GMAC financing from a figure that was normally at 45%. During September, October, and when the credit crisis hit hardest in November 2008, GM continued to suffer hugely declining sales, and the decision to cut GM's customers off from GMAC credit must have only aggravated a bad situation from GM's concentration in SUV's and trucks and the tight credit conditions. With the November situation worsened by customers simply postponing car purchases due to concerns about job security (as about 586,000 jobs were lost in November), the credit scores decision could only hurt GM badly. Now Treasury is stepping in with $5 billion to GMAC with another $1 billion to GM to invest in GMAC. The result will be reducing Cerberus control of GMAC from 51% to 14.9% of voting shares and 33% of total equity. Cerberus will also stop providing consulting services to GMAC and the 2 companies will no longer share executives. And the GMAC Board will be reconstituted reducing the number of members affiliated to GM and Cerberus, and adding agovernment appointed board member. The government's $5 billion stake will pay an 8% dividend and it will put the government ahead of Cerberus's common equity holdings. Originally Cerberus and dozens of co-investors paid $7.4 billion for the 51% stake in GMAC in 2006. Now Cerberus plans to distribute piev=ces of it current GMAC stake directly to coinvestors. Cerberus has other troubled investments. With its flagship $4 billion fund down 15.8% as of November 30, 2008, and the firm has suspended withdrawal requests from investors after suffering big losses in October and November on a bet in fixed income markets....

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Don't let the current holiday season retail sales fool you as they have held up reasonably well. The impact of the mortgage and housing crisis will be felt in a delayed manner. It won't be till 2008 that the impact will really be felt. And the impact is expected to be lasting and deep, could take the rest of 2008, 2009 and into 2010 for this protracted tightening of credit. About $300-400 billion contraction in credit is expected when banks tighten their credit lending because of losses they are taking in the mortgage crisis. This will happen in an environment of falling house prices and consumers will not have access to the $340 billion in cash from home and mortgage equity financing that they took out in 2006, estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Auto, retail, apparel, and luxury items would be hit the most. On the jobs side not all the jobs will be lost in the USA. The USA imports about $740 billion in consumer goods and autos each year, which is one third of consumer spending excluding food and energy. The lower consumption in auto and apparel would affect exporters in Japan and China and South Korea. But Chinese exports have reached a point that they are causing trade tensions and a call for strengthening the yuan. An increase in American exports and lower imports could help bring down America's trade deficit. This could give China an opportunity to build its domestic market and markets in Asia and Europe so that it is not so dependent on the US market. For the US where the savings rate is near zero this is an opportunity for consumers to build their savings and reduce debt. Europe and India and the Middle East are expected to continue growth and China may see slower but continued growth in 2008 and 2009. In the US industries like aircraft and infrastructure promoting companies that sell to countries like Russia, India Brazil, the Middle East, and China will continue to grow. And because rates are still low large nonfinancial companies still have access to funds for expansion and capital investment. In a global economy the US consumer may be one part of a much larger picture. ...

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Americans loaded up with debt may be turning to older thriftier ways of an earlier generation. This this will affect consumer spending, have an impact on Chinese exports, and on the Japanese economy which is dependent on China for growth. Some argue that there is a culture of consumer spending that runs through recent American history. Even after one boom was over the stock boom was replaced by a housing boom, each boom and easy credit offering free spending and borrowing lifestyles. Is it going to change now? But it could be that a point has been reached where the finances of households and of the nation's credit system can only go so far, and culture won't matter if banks tighten up credit. There is a limit for the Fed to act to lower rates, and household debt has reached highly serious proportions. The savings rate went from one tenth of income in 1984, to 5% in 1994, to slightly negative in 2008. Today for those who borrowed against their homes in 2003-2007, 34 million households or one third of the US households, savings rate was negative 13% in 2006 June. Thhis came down to 7% in end of 2007, according to Moody's Economy.com, which suggests that the cutback in consumer spending from this group of people had already begun. What will this mean for consumer spending in the USA? It means that even though the top fifth of American earners who generate half of all consumer spending according to Barclay's Capital, will continue spending though a bit more carefully than before. The rest of the American people will be cutting back, especially the one third of the nation that is heavily in debt, and the unemployed if job numbers aren't that good. Which could be why Goldman Sachs predicts that Japan is already in recession using the Japanese definintion of decline in output, and China may be slowing down more significantly than is understood because of the poor data that is coming out of China. The Chinese economic activity too chaotic to accurately measure, and with large time lags before what is actually happening is detected and quantified correctly. ...

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The Logan lower cost model produced by Renault's Romanian affiliate Automobile Dacia SA is setting a pattern that is being looked at as a model for the future throughout Renault. It is combining the advantages of Japanese manufacturing methods with their attention to detail and good practices evident at Nissan, Renault's partner company, with the cost conscious methods evident in operations in a Renault joint venture with Mahindra and Mahindra of India. Dacia Automobile was a Soviet era plant, and Renault has modernized it but keeps a more labor intensive attitude with good basics operation here, in contrast to the trend to automate everything and use robots extensively that became popular at other plants in Europe, U.S., and Japan. As Renault managers in France and its overseas operations look at both the expanding markets for lower cost cars and the profitability of the Dacia plant in Romania, it is becoming a model to be imitated. Other plants built earlier now look overautomated and costly for manufacturing cars in a cost conscious pricing sensitive competitive market that automakers face. Logan is contributing to Renault's bottom line, and may help it in reaching the 6% in operating margins that is a new goal for Renault for 2009. Dacia Automobile S.A. initally owned 55% by Renault is now 99% owned by Renault. It has sales of 2 billion euros ,in 2007 with revenue increase of 30% over 2006. The profit was 100 million euros in 2007. It employs 14,000 workers and Renault's investment has reached 1 billion euros upto this point. The plant turns out 60 cars per hour. Compare this with a similiar investment by VW in a Soviet era Skoda automobile plant in the Czech Republic, where VW started with an inital investment in part ownership and ended up in full ownership of Skoda with large investments in modernizing Skoda, and the success in selling Skoda cars known for their good quality. The Skoda is expected to sell at the million dollar sales level in 2010 and is the fastest growing brand in Europe. It ties with Honda in quality surveys. ...

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Changing bank loan payments from 36 to 72 or 82 payments and bank's confidence to make new credit available at interest rates of abot 12% has created a boom in auto sales with 2.46 million cars sold in 2007, according to the National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers, and car factories operating at near or full capacity. GM showed improved results last quarter largely on the basis of its Brazilian operations profits. Inflation at yearend 2007 was 4.5% and Brazil is experiencing a boom based on its commodity exports of iron ore, and other commodities. Foreign investment doubled last year to $34.6 billion, much of it going into the stock market, and the Brazilian currency is strong. And the Lula administration has also put money int he hand os the poor in Brazil so that the boom is more equally shared. The increase in availability of credit is in high double digits for everything from cars, and homes to consumer items like washing machines and televisions, because its starting from a low base as is true of most of Latin America where because of high inflation and interest rates banks were reluctant to lend and borrowers could not afford the high interest rates. Now home mortgages are available for 12% and car loans for 14%, still high but much better by Brazilian standards with extended payment terms. About 20 million more people are able to buy on credit with this new availability of credit according to Mr. Ferreira, President of the National Association of Credit, Financing and Investment Institutions. If interest rates drop further this boom will get new momentum as even more people will be attracted to buying on credit. The volume of outstanding credit in Brazil in February was 35% of GDP, the is compares to eurozone numbers of 116% for domestic credit to the private sector according to the World Bank figures for 2006, and 201% in the USA and 419% in Japan. Mr. Ferreira predicts that the proportion of personal debt to GDP would rise from 38% to 40% this year and increase by 3% each year to 2013....

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Vernon Smith, Professor of Economics and Law at Chapman University, 2002 Nobel prize winner, makes an effort to explain in simple language what has happened in the housing bubble, the various aspects of this crisis, and what might help and what might be difficult to accomplish in the rescue plan. He thinks that a reverse auction is awfully hard to do with some success especially as Treasury has no experience with this, and thinks its better to inject capital in banks and companies in return for equity stakes, which incidentally is what Gordon Brown's plan in the UK intends to do. With that Chapman believes Treasury has experience having recently demonstrated that several times including the way Treasury and the FDIC assisted JP Morgan takeover Washington Mutual. He asks readers to look at the Shiller price index graph from 1987 and asks do they think the home prices which only in 2006 and 2007 gradually turned downward and plumetted in 2008, has it run its course. The answer from the graph looks like a no after such a long runup in prices since 1987 and there is a ways to go in 2009 and into 2010. In this context and the context of a declining economy wiith higher unemployment what are the prospects of stabilizing home prices anytime soon? Which suggests injection of capital in return for equity by the government to recapitalize them and get lending back up, as well as act a a clearinghouse to take some of the fear risk out of transactions, as some of the more sensible solutions. And at the same time putting in a comprehensive homeowner relief program with taxpayer money and lender participation to have the lenders modify mortgages, or something like the Hubbard or Feldstein plans, to keep homeowners in their homes. And there is one bit of good news in all this oil prices have already hit $80 a barrel and are headed downward, and so are the prices of all commodities including steel, and the prices of soybeans, corn wheat and so on. ...

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The Cruz campaign depended on its success in Iowa on a well organized grassroots campaign, and the large turnout of evangelicals estimated at about 62 percent. The record turnout of about 185,000 for the Republican caucuses showed the depth of participation in this election. About 46% of the voter turnout was from Republicans participating for the first time. Trump's poor grassroots organization, missteps including controversial statements by Trump denigrating women- leading to him opting out of the last Republican debate raising doubts about his candidacy- combined to put Trump struggling for second place, with Rubio finishing only one percentage point behind. Cruz had 28%, Trump 24% and Rubio 23%. One of the results of this election is the poor performance of governors Jeb Bush, Christie and Kasich, who combined polled less votes than a neurosurgeon Carson. The anti-establishment fervour was evident with the support for Cruz, Trump and Carson of about two thirds of the vote, reflecting anti-establishment views. Cruz's win was remarkable, say analysts, considering his opposition to special interest lobbies, including the ethanol lobby in Iowa supported by Governor Branstad. It was also remarkable because of the months of media coverage for Trump's statements and exaggerations, and the tacit support for Trump from the establishment Republican party, including Senator Grassley of Iowa and Governor Branstad. Cruz now heads on to the other states, including the six southern states voting on March 1, where he will be favored, with a well financed campaign using grassroots contributions....

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Ohio governor Kasich, New Jersey Governor Christie, and Florida governor Jeb Bush chipping away at Donald Trump's lead in New Hampshire after Trump's defeat in the Iowa caucuses. The three governors did poorly in Iowa getting less than 7% of the vote combined- Bush 2.8%, Kasich 1.9%, and Christie 1.8%. The more diverse industrial state of New Hampshire compared to agricultural and evangelical voter Iowa provides a different contest in New Hampshire.

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New information from the recordings of the World Health Organization as reported by Associated Press, show that during the week of January 6 WHO's lead experts were having difficulty getting information about the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. Maria Van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist and the WHO technical lead for coronavirus says she was going on very minimal information. The WHO's top official in China, Gauden Galea, says in one of the recordings that they were in the situation where information was given to WHo officials in China only 15 minutes prior to it going on China's state television CCTV. In early January Michael Ryan, the WHO's chief of emergencies, says he feared a repeat of the SARS epidemic in 2002, which was initially covered up by Chinese officials, according to the AP report shown in the Guardian. Ryan says he found himself in the same situation as in 2002 SARS, endlessly trying to get updates from China about what was going on, and adds that WHO barely got out of the SARS with its reputation intact given the transparency issues, in the AP report shown in the Guardian. By June 1 about 6.3 million confirmed cases are reported of coronavirus in the world and 375,000 deaths, and huge losses to economies and people. China's authorites did not lockdown Wuhan till January 23, by which time this report in the Guardian says at least 5 million residents had left. China denied entry requested by the U.S.on January 6 for a team of experts into Wuhan, The team was not allowed into Wuhan for a crucial period of 6 weeks during which the virus had time to spread in the western world. This is taken up in Mr. Trump's letter to the WHO, and the work of Gro Harlem Brundtland is clearly stated in the conclusion of that letter. Brundtland was head of the WHO at the time of the SARS epidemic in 2003, and acted decisively with early warnings to prevent its spread.  Because of the extremely contagious nature of the coronavirus the failure of early warning systems resulted in enormous damage to lives and economic losses worldwide.  ...

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Japan has accomplished a remarkable transformation of its workforce and its economy even as the working age population is declining. For years Japan was seen as a stagnant economy with a rapidly aging population. In recent years Japan has shown how a change in policy can work. Since 2012 working age population declined by 4.7 million, yet the number of people working increased by 4.4 million. The proportion of the population in the workforce rose sharply since 2012. To do this Japan turned to three underutilized parts of its workforce and population- the elderly, women and new immigrants. Japan has pursued an active policy of reviving the economy by bringing women into the workforce and breaking taboos on new immigrants. In 2004 Japan raised retirement age from 60 to 65, and then made it mandatory for companies to raise or abolish the retirement age, or introduce a system for re-employing workers who retire. This has changed Japan a lot with Japanese men working well into their 60's and 70's. In the west coast city of Kanagawa which now has a bullet train to Tokyo, out migration was a big problem that added to a declining workforce. The head of Ohara, a family owned company that makes desserts tried a novel method of advertising to seniors in apartment blocks and starting attracting seniors to fill worker shortages. It found that seniors came to work on time, performed even tedious tasks, and brought a great deal of experience. Since then the regional government has started programs to get more retirees and women into the workforce. The special programs teach small companies to adapt to the needs of retiree workers who can work in shorter shifts of few hours and do less physical jobs. Women need predictable hours to pickup children from school and shorter work weeks, for which the regional government program helps companies adapt by sending in specialists to guide the companies. As a result female participation in the workforce, for very long a big handicap is no longer so. Female participation has jumped to 63%, higher even than that in the OECD where the average is 62 years.  Japanese women had a M curve that meant they worked most in their 20's. less in the 30's with children, and more in the 50's. First the government tried to correct this with extended parental leave, increased childcare, and rewarding companies with good work-life balance. Then in 2009 the effort accelerated with employers required to offer 6 hour days if a worker asked for this. Under prime minister Abe's "womenomics" effort child care was significantly expanded- by 2015 Tokyo went from 28 to 38 spots open for every 100 two year olds. Alongside these efforts the Abe government tried to get companies to rethink their assumptions about quantity of work and overtime as productive effort. One could work shorter hours and be productive, and the old notions were seen as resulting in lower productivity. As fathers with parental leave took on more responsibility the changes transformed the attitudes for women at work. Most remarkable is the quiet change in immigration policy. The government allowed foreign construction workers to address shortages for work on the 2020 Olympics. It introduced a 3-5 year visas program for nursing care workers. Two new categories of visas will add 340,000 additional blue collar workers over next 5 years. The total foreign born workers in Japan doubled from 2012 to 2017 to 1.3 million. ...