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It is too early to say it is a playbook. Trudeau's action may be more effective in the long run. The issue of fentanyl from Mexico is different in 2025 from the first term of DJT in 2016, 8 years later with 490,000 deaths from fentanyl in the US, a part of America's younger generation- unprecedented in American history and since the settling of the American continent since 1600. Fentanyl smuggling into the US from Mexico is the biggest issue facing the US along with closing the US Border. This report in the WSJ says Sheinbaum tried to deflect 25% tariffs by making the offer of sending 10,000 troops to the US Border. This was similar to her predecessor saying he would send 28,000 troops to the Guatemala Mexico border to stop migrants. DJT raised the issue. The week before the Feburary 3, 2025 call between Sheinbaum and DJT the White House said Mexican drug-trafficking organizations “have an intolerable alliance with the government of Mexico.” These are aspects of the problem that the White House needs addressed in effective ways to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US. Action from the first term of DJT has not solved the problem so that DJT will have to find real effective solutions. The Canadian government followed its own approach. It set $140 million for a new unit to gather intelligence on organized crime. And appointed a head for an organization on stopping fentanyl from entering the US. Canadian PM Trudeau followed the US and DJT in labelling the Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations. Issues the US faces with Mexico that remain unresolved are the $150 billion deficit and bringing home US manufacturing in the auto industry back to the US.   ...

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Feldstein is back after his proposal that the government step in with low cost loans to families thatwould help homeowners reduce what they owed the bank by 20%, for those homeowners who are close to negative equity but not there yet. This is needed to prevent the next big wave of defaults on loans, from homeowners who see that walking away from their loans is a rational solution once they reach the point of negative equity. Feldstein hammers away at some critical points that point out that reducing rates risks more than it accomplishes. Food prices globally do not benefit from lower rates, as governments may have to raise interest rates to cool inflation in their economies. Rising food prices threatens the livelihoods of poor and working classes in the global economy, especially in developing countries of Asia and Africa. It also does little to stimulate the economy in the USA and actually helps increase inflation for commodities like oil and food products. So why is the Fed lowering rates even though the costs are more significant than the benefits. Lowering rates would be counterintuiive in this situation as Feldstein points out. Bernanke's response would be that its a temporary crisis response, lower interest rates helps financial firms restructure their debt and helps them restore health to their balance sheets in the fragile financial markets, where the financial architecture itself is being questioned. And the immediate crisis was in the financial markets, whereas some other solutions could be found for the damage this caused to the overall world economy in terms of inflation. Feldstein quotes estimates of inlation at 4% in the last 12 months and of 4.8% this year. The inflation rate in China is estimated much higher at about 8.5% and has become the focus of government efforts including relaxing the exchange rate, as the rise in prices especially of food affects the large working poor in China. Another aspect of lower interest rates is that lower rates surely would do little when there is such a large inventory of unsold homes. Significant also is the fact that lowering rates for fed funds by 3% from this time last year, has done little to lower mortgage interest rates which have come down only by 0.5%. So it does not give much relief to homeowners either. So is lowering rates a medicine that comes with a lot of side effects that you adminster only because the patient is in a critical condition, as the financial and credit markets appeared to Bernanke and Paulson that weekend only a few weeks ago? Probably so,which takes one back to Feldstein's main point. That main point is that the only way to get to solutions that strike at the core of this crisis is to help homeowners avoid default on their home mortgage loans, by reducing the loan amount by something like 20%, through government loans which can later be recouped to some extent. It cautions the Fed to use the medicine of lower rates sparingly, and urges the market participants and the public that insists that there be no "bailouts" to come to their senses, and accept that their will be tolerable losses for all if there are not to be intolerable losses for all....

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Thomas Sargent of New York University, the 2012 Nobel prize winner in economics, says the EU leaders can learn from the way the federal government in the U.S. handled the issue of state's debt when it came up in the 1790's and in 1840. In 1790 the federal government- under the leadership of Washington and Hamilton- saw the need to honor state's debt because of the contribution made by states in the war of independence and the U.S. assumed state's debt. In 1840 the U.S. refused to assume state's debt and states went into default. The result was beneficial because state's passed balanced budget rules and restrained reckless spending. Another benefit was that this preserved state rights to manage their finances and the federal structure setup under the constitution.

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Li Keqiang, China's new premier, entered Peking University in 1978 by excelling in merit exams. Li and a fellow student, Yang Baikui, translated the English book "The Due Process of Law" by British jurist Lord Denning. Professor Gong Xiangrui, brought the book to China and educated his students in the ideas of constitutional law and western liberalism. Yang says Li learned English on his own and meticulously carried a stack of notecards with English on one side and Chinese translation on the other. Li would study the cards while waiting for a bus or in the line at the school cafeteria. Li has political discusions with students from that time, some of whom joined the pro-democracy demonstrations of 1989. He is the son of a mid level county official from Anhui province and moved in the party ranks through diligent effort. Li's doctoral thesis is in economcs and he is expected to focus on economic changes, with Xi Jinping, the new president, taking the lead in making changes to the political system. Fellow students from Li's days at Peking University say the difference between them and Li is the pace of democratization, with Li looking at it as a longer process. Recent articles by Li Keqiang on economic change show his emphasis on urbanization as a way to improve agricultural conditions with a smaller number of farmers improving producitvity in agriculture, and the importance of creating a better social safety net for people in China....

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Nasdaq OMX Group CEO, Robert Greifeld, says Janet Yellen and the U.S. Fed Open Market Committee should exercize caution in increasing interest rates in 2014. He cites the heavy risk for long term investor outlook and psychology of the Fed moving too quickly in increasing interest rates, because of the steep drop in oil prices, the crash of the ruble, slowdown in Europe, deflationary trends in the eurozone and Japan, and slow growth in China. The Fed now has more room for taking a cautious approach says Greifeld, as wage growth is tepid, the dollar is strong, and oil prices are down significantly.

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Germany faces the unique challenge of phasing out coal and nuclear energy at the same time. Germany's response to the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan was for Chancellor Merkel to announce that all plants would be closed over the next decade. By the end of 2022 all 17 nuclear energy facilities will be shut down.

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Krugman says that the Democratic party will have to look elsewhere for its leadership needs than the Obama administration. He faults the administration for its pay freeze for federal workers, when the issue of the extension of the Bush tax cuts for higher incomes is the much larger issue in terms of savings for deficit reduction.

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Pfizer stops selling inhaled insulin drug Exubera 2 years after its introduction because of sales being less than 1% of the insulin market. Pfizer will take a charge of $2.8 billion for this failed attempt.

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Jacob Yuma as leader of the African National Congress in the post Mandela period for South Africa- what kind of leadership will he provide after he ousted Mbeki from a third term as ANC President.

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With an extraordinary sentiment for China's people Joe Stilwell showed America as different from the colonial powers of which Japan was a part with its occupation of Korea and China in 1930-1945. America should recognize and be proud of men like  Joe Stilwell who commanded all American Forces in China and the Asian sector in World War II. Such forced labor as shown in Tuchman's book "Stilwell and the American Experience in China," was never seen in its human aspect. Stilwell was the first American to understand the ordinary Chinese people struggles of that period. He participated in their struggles, once even hid himself in Chinese freight trains in the 1930's to collect intelligence about Japanese intentions in northern China.  The war conditions for the Imperial Japanese war effort railway built through dense jungle between Rangoon and Bangkok in 1942-43. Tamil Indian and Indonesian laborers who died working on the railway are remembered here. 250,000 romusha or forced laborers of whom 90,000 died were Asian Indian. A much smaller number were Britishers and European POW's 12,000 in number immortalized in Bridge over the River Kwai, a movie about this period. Till now most of the Indian laborers remained obscure like so many millions obscure in the history books about the colonial period for Indonesia and India, with a population now numbering 1.7 billion people in the world. China with 1.2 billion people suffered the same fate in bombings by Imperial Japanese forces that rampaged across China in the war years. Such forced labor as shown in Tuchman's book "Stilwell and the American Experience in China," was never seen in its human aspect. Stilwell was the first American to understand the ordinary Chinese people struggles of that period. He participated in their struggles, once even hid himself in Chinese freight trains in the 1930's to collect intelligence about Japanese intentions in northern China.  ...

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This year 2025 is the 75th year since the invasion of Tibet by Communist China under Mao in 1950, and the 66th year since the uprising in Lhasa in 1959. The new book by Tibet Dalai Lama will be out in March 2025- Voice for the Voiceless: Over Seven Decades of Struggle With China for My Land and My People.  The Dalai Lama calls for preserving Tibet's Buddhist civilization and culture within China. Bringing China's borders to the borders of India was a serious mistake as the mountains of Tibet and Nepal acted as a buffer zone between China and India. The invasion was a result of seeing India as India under a colonial power the British and independent India still run in 1950 under a system modeled on Britain- what Mao fought against since the 1920's.  In 2025 India has emerged as distinctly Indian and China has emerged from the 1950's communist state into a market economy state. The old colonial period systems no longer exist and only a reversion to the old Buddhist periods since the 5th century in terms of borders makes sense. The Tibet invasion after millenium in which Tibet had relations with Nepal, China and India has created other issues in this region. In the centuries before the colonial powers entered Asia in the 15th century, the Portuguese, Dutch and the British, there was contact, commerce and other relations between India, Nepal, Tibet and China. The earliest contacts were with Bodhidharma prince from from India going to China through these Tibetan mountains to convert China to Buddhism in about the 6th century AD. China reverting to its Buddhist culture is a serious possibility because it is so intertwined with a sense of being Chinese and the culture of China. And with this the borders of times past.   ...

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Differences between the U.S. and China on trade, investment and economic policy in 2015 during Xi Jinping's visit to the U.S.

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This report by Goodman in the NYT shows that the ANC has lost most of the moral authority it had under Mandela. After 9 years under president Zuma, and after the term of his predecessor Mr. Mbeki from 1999-2008, South Africa remains stuck with stagnant economy, and about two thirds of young people in the townships being jobless. The challenge is how to change the economy to where growth is generated and benefits go to a broader section of the population. Problems the new president Ramaphosa faces are how to change the protections given to conglomerates that dominated the economy under Apatheid, and the patronage network that evolved with the ANC in the post Apartheid era. Growth performance of the South African economy is dismal. According to the World Bank the South African economy in 2016 was about the size of the economy in 2009. Many warnings about the economy and the operation of the state run electric utility appeared during Mr. Zuma's presidency, including one by former president De Klerk. Growth in 2018 is expected to be only about 1.1%. The economic gains by the largely black population have suffered with lack of growth and mismanagement of the economy. Official unemployment is at 27%, with about two thirds of the young people in the townships being jobless.  ...

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Sweden gets a centre left government led by Stefan Lofven, who gets a second term in office. He managed to put together an alliance of centre left parties with the Green Party and Liberal paties after the elections gave 40% of the vote to centre left and centre right and proved inconclusive. Lofven governs without a majority in parliament because the minority government has support form other parties with 77 votes in parliament that abstained. Both centre right and centre left did not want to join with the far right anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. Lofven says Sweden chose a different path than other governments that sought to form governments with anti-immigrant parties. He said "in Sweden we stand up for democracy, for equality. Sweden has chosen a different path." To get Centre and Liberal parties support Lofven promised to cut taxes, reform the rental housing market, and relax strict employment laws.

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When asked what projects they wanted to see in Helmand province, ordinary Afghans said they wanted the repair of the main sluice gates that lead to the irrigation canals off the Helmand River. These were built with American aid in the 1950's, and its been 30 years since anyone did any work on that canal. See the link to India and irrigation, only 50% of the land is estimated by experts to be irrigated in India. WIthout irrigation, as the uncertain monsoon rains this year showed, India's agricultural heartland in the Punjab and Haryana would collapse. When other Afghans were asked they mentioned security, they did not want to see the Americans in tents, but in some sort of permanent presence. BUt considering the vast and undeveloped landscape of Afghanistan, one sees several differences from Iraq's insurgent dominated priovince near Baghdad. It has mountainous terrain, with no electricity, no roads, no water, totally desolate in most parts of Helmand and other provinces, and it is a vast country with illiterate people tired of war. Would America's 40,000 troops be enough, or would you need more and more. If McChrystal's strategy shown here is to occupy civilan areas and fight the Taliban, and the Taliban with the help of Pakistan's ISI dissident elements are getting more and more sophisticated with roadside bombs, there will be growing casualties. The Americans could hold their own if there was no outpouring of support because of unpopularity of the Afghan government, but throw that into the equation- something McChrystal has not thought through according to Dexter Filkins of the NYT- and things get muddied. And from his training as a Special Operations commander this is a problem McChrystal is not as well prepared to understand or tackle. Consider the implications if Afghanistan is not Iraq- where Shiites and Aytollah Sistani their spiritual leader formed a core of support that the US always had on its side once it supported a democratically elected government- and no core of support here in Afghanistan except an unpopular government. McChrystal may also not have factored in a key factor of the "allergy" of Afghans to foreign boots on the ground. With a largely illiterate police recruits and army recruits, would the idea of transferring the job become delayed and the American boots end up in an untenable position? See the link to Commander Adams and Khost province, where Adams points out its all about visible evidence of progress. For his 250 paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne this meant delivering on roads built in Khost province, and a spring water system for 12,000 villagers. Here Filkins starts with Afghan villagers asking for the repair of the canal leading to the Helmand river which has not been repaired since the 1950's. McChrystal could only say "it takes time." But the US has been in Afghistan for 8 years and as commader Adams says only fighting "one year wars." The other point Adams says is that an effort in Afghanistan only works by befriending the tribes, because its the tribes who will see that IED's are reported and any insurgents in the area are reported, and only they have the capabilities to do it, which no number of American troops can do. These are serious questions that need answers. See the groups for- Commander Adams, and for Dexter Filkins (the article on McChrystal's Long War), which touch on similiar development issues....

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During the election campaign Obama talked about sending at least 2 more combat brigades to Afghanistan. The Defense Department is already planning to send 20,000 additional troops in response to a request of General David McKiernan, top commander in Afghanistan,including 4 combat brigades and an aviation brigade with helicopters, increasing the American troop levels to 58,000, with an additional 30,000 NATO troops already there from other countries. The timeline for this is 12-18 months but with the escalating insurgent attacks in Afghanistan this will probably be done more quickly. Obama and some Democrats talked about Afghanistan as somehow being the good war and he vowed to defeat the Taliban and militants in Afghanistan. But Afghanistan is a different place and most military experts are suggesting that a good strategy will be needed, for example winning over the tribals and some of the militants, and not trying to win militarily. However with the deteriorating situation there the only way to win over tribals and militants may be to get the situation to where the NATO and US forces are in a strong situation. The two big handicaps in this are first history, where the terrain and rural distribution of the people make it difficult to exercize any control over the vast region of mountains and deserts. So throughout history no one has controlled this region and there is no history of centralized government, with different tribes controlling their regions. The other is the problem created by the corruption and lack of any popular support for the Karzai government, which is made worse by the involvement of its officials in the opium trade with opium growing booming in the southern part of Afghanistan. How does the US and NATO create an effective Afghan army and police under a state that does not enjoy any popular support. And yet the strategy that Gates. Petraeus and McKiernan are pursuing involves preparing the Afghan army and police for the task of controlling the vast mountainous region against a rural insurgency that knows its way in the mountains enjoys rural support because of the independent spirit of the Afghan people who find it easy to see the NATO forces as white foreigners in their country. The Afghan army is small for such a vast mountainous region, only 70,000 in a nation of 32 million people, and the police forces of 80,000 mostly corrupt and ineffectual. The present plan is to build the Afgan army to 134,000 still small for such a large region. The other problems stem from the Pushtun population in Pakistan that supports the rural insurgency in Afghanistan and the support of tribal people in the border areas of Pakistan. The picture tells the story, a small number of NATO soldiers in a remote ridge in Afghanistan. And the problems actually are across the whole of the far northern region of what was once British India, of Afghanistan and Pakistan, as the Pakistan government is quite fragile, having an army that operates as a power center of its own with little accountability to the central government. And years of war during the previous military government of Pakistan under Zia Ul Haq, in which Zia with the support of the Reagan administration supported another rural insurgency in Afghanistan that drove the soviets out of Afghanistan, and the subsequent sponsorship of the Taliban movement by the Pakistan military in Afghanistan, has created a situation in Pakistan where militants now operate freely and with impunity in Pakistan itself, disregarding both the Pakistan military and the Pakistan elected government's power structures....