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The WSJ/Vistage U.S. Small Business Confidence Index ends 2013 at a new high of 108.4 reflecting optimism of small business owners. The Index for 2013 shows a sharp drop by November 2012 to about 82 followed by a sharp increase for Dec. 2013 to about 94, and a similiar pattern is observed as it declines to about 95 in October 2013 and increases to 108.4 in December 2013. The sequester and deadlock in talks by Nov. 2012, and the government shutdown and its resolution by Dec. 2013 are likely causes. The Dec. 2013 Ryan-Murray budget agreement points the way out of political uncertainty that Vanguard CEO McNabb pointed to as a primary obstacle to investment and growth. This may be the strongest indicator of what lies ahead for 2014- 52% of 937 small business owners surveyed online in the Index in Dec. 2013, say the economy has improved in 2013, an increase from 36% in 2012. And 38% say they expect conditions to be still better in 2014, from the prior years 27%. Small business owners polled have sales less than $20 million and fewer than 500 employees. They are the main engine for growth in employment. Loten cites small business owners in construction and other industries who have increased hiring and expect to see a significant improvement in 2014. One owner who represents the pattern taken by small business, cut back employees by 2010, and held back on investment till 2012, increased investment in 2013 and is now expanding. Availability of credit with improved bottom lines and banks more willing to lend will be another positive in 2014-2015....

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Ratan Tata welcomes Air India- formerly founded as Tata Airlines in 1932 by an accomplished pilot JRD Tata who flew the maiden postal flight in South Asia from Karachi to Bombay in 1932- back to Tata Group. JRD Tata assumed the position as head of Tata Sons in 1938. Nehru nationalized Air India in 1953 after years of bureaucratic interference in the management of the airline. Ratan Tata was selected by JRD Tata to run the Tata Group in 1990 and was present during the early formative years of the airline. The decision to take 100% ownership of Air India in 2021 appears to be a good one considering the difficulties JRD Tata had- and which Ratan Tata is familiar with- from interference by the government in the management of the airline in the early period after independence in 1947. This gives Tata Group a clean start to build a new airline. By taking responsibility for three fourths of the debt of Air India with Tata Group taking on the other one fourth, the government gives the new airline a good start. Air India was losing 3 million dollars a day according to a report in DW.com. This transfer also frees up this huge investment for use in other areas of the economy such as infrastructure building, healthcare, education, logistics for exports. ...

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The next tranche of aid to Greece is 31.5 billion euros on Nov.12, 2012. Greece has agreed to a package of austerity measures of 13.5 billion euros of spending cuts and tax increases. About 85% of this will go to recapitalizing Greek banks which took losses on sovereign Greek bonds under an agreement. The hope is that Greek banks will lend to businesses but there is skepticism in Greece about bank's willingness to lend. The economy is expected to contract by 6.5% in 2012. Under the agreement civil servants on "special salaries" will see cuts of 35%. Associate professors at universities will see the count reducd from 15,226 to 2000. A majority of tax exemptions will be ended. About 5000 civil servants in 2012 and 20,000 in 2013 will face salary cuts and be transferred to other jobs or dismissed. The package has to be passed in the Greek parliament. Finance minister Stournaras says Greece needs to reduce the interest rate on its debt and extend payback periods. Stournaras says Greece will be given more time to implement the austerity measures. The Merkel approach to the Greek crisis is causing a rift within the eurozone with France's president Hollande and the SDP opposition leader in Germany critical of the way it is being handled....

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Jurgen Kroger, is the chief negotiator for the European Commission, and Poul Thomsen, heads the IMF negotiating team, for the 78 billion euros in loans extended to Portugal under a bailout agreement. Kroger offered his views on the agreement in Lisbon. Kroger said he was convinced that the program gives Portugal the means to boost growth and jobs, as it builds a sustainable and competitive economy. Two thirds of the loans come from the EU at an interest rate that is yet to be set. The yield on Portugal's 10 year bonds keeps rising and is now at 10.20%. The IMF will provide one third of the funds. The IMF's Thomsen said the issue of interest rates was addressed by arranging for two thirds of the loan package money coming in the first of the three years of the program. What this does is to take Portugal out of the markets for medium and long term debt for a "little over two years" he said and gives Portugal the "breathing space" it needs to restore credibility before going to the financial markets. The fear expressed by analysts is that the tough austerity measures in the programs of the EU and IMF can cause the economies of these countries to worsen, making it even harder to repay the much larger debts when the loan package money is added to the original debt. The IMF and the EU negotiators had to create a credible program for recovery in the light of these facts. Already Portugal's finance minister is predicting a contraction in the Portuguese economy of 2% in 2011, and 2% in 2012. The negotiators appear to have taken this into account in setting interest rates. Portugal will pay the IMF an interest rate of 3.25% for the first 3 years, with the rate going to 4.25 in the fourth year. By comparison Greece's loans are for seven years with an average interest rate of 4.2%. Ireland's seven year loans carry an interest rate of 5.8%, which it is working to renegotiate. To give Portugal more breathing space the terms of the loans set a slower reduction in the budget deficit than originally planned. Portugal gets to cut its budget deficit to 5.9% of GDP in 2011, and 4.5% of GDP in 2012. The 3% target is set for 2013, one year later. Economists such as Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics, say the loan package will only increase Portugal's debt and lead to a larger default later on when the debt amount owed is larger. The debt restructuring solution is being actively debated in the EU, including the risks that European banks would take large hits. Negotiators are also mindful of keeping any negative impact on Spain as low as possible. As Portugal's financing costs have risen, Spain's have risen also. Spain offered higher rates to sell 3.4 billion euros of five year bonds on May 5, with the average yield on Spain's bond sale rising to 4.55%, up from 4.39% on March 3. ...

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Hyperinflation of 1 million percent annualized rate for Venezuela. This is the revised estimate from the IMF for 2019, after first estimating it at 13000 percent. Is this even possible for an oil rich country? It shows what can happen with severe economic mismanagement. It is happening as the economy is damaged by failed socialist policies, corruption and a collapsing oil industry. The successor to Hugo Chavez after he died in 2013 has failed to tackle the situation with the government having a hard time paying for the paper to print bolivares, the currency. Electronic money is paid into accounts, A petro currency was created backed by oil supplies, but nothing has worked. As an example dishwasher soap cost 3.8 million bolivares a week ago, today it is 4.9 million. Some families are down to small bits of soap, and cut out proteins from the diet, says this report. For one of the richest countries in Latin America this hyperinflation is an extreme form of impoverishment, say experts. The worst case experts say is that of Hungary after World War II when prices doubled every 15 hours. Zimbabwe and Serbia also recorded severe hyperinflation in recent memory. ...

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Brooks takes a different view about the 1986 Reagan tax reforms providing a way forward in 2013. He says growth is slower now in the U.S. with changes in the global economy and any growth killing tax increases or disincentives for investment are risky changes. He suggests taxing consumption and providing incentives for savings and investment. Closing loopholes will have to tackle the major deductions such as charitable deductions says Brooks.

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This very exceptional report from the city of Recife in Brazil's northeastern state of Pernambuco, comes from WSJ reporters Johnson and Jelmayer. It is about the physicians Vanessa van der Linden Mota, and Ana van der Linden Mota, her mother, who first alerted health authorites in Pernambuco about the cases of encephaly and the links to the mosquito Zika Virus in Recife, Brazil. From 147 recorded encephaly cases, and babies born with shrunken skulls or calcified brain structure in 2014 in Brazil, the cases reported jumped to 4,180 suspected cases. Estimates of cases by 2020 for such cases run up to 50,000 to 100,000 if the problem is not tackled. The family of the van der lindens come from Dutch-German immigrants settled in northeastern Brazil, a less developed region of the country. The family is unique with five doctors including neuro pediatricians Ana and Vanessa working in public hospitals in Recife , and father Helio a neuro surgeon. The entire state of Pernambuco has a total of 15 neuropediatricians, according to this report. The Ebola Virus emerged in countries such as Sierra Leone and Liberia which suffered from war and neglect of health infrastructure. Here in Pernambuco state, as reporters Johnson and Jelmayer point out, the problem stems from neglect in public health infrastructure, especially sanitation and drinking water for shantytown dwellers and vast majority of poor residents in a city of 3.5 million, typical of developing countries in Latin America and South Asia, where development in some parts of the country have lagged far behind, and where needed public health infrastructure investments have not been made. Lack of dependable drinking water means collecting water in containers that are susceptible to breeding mosquitoes, such as the mosquitoes carrying the Zika Virus. A public debate on the lack of attention by socialist and worker's party led governments to this type of infrastructure and transportation services was already underway in Brazil leading to widespread protests in 2013. A $226 million investment in a soccer stadium in Recife, and similar investments in other smaller cities in the northeast were made under the Worker's Party government. Large investments for the Olympics now come as the economy contracted in 2015, and Brazil is hurt by another boom-bust cycle with the slowdown in China- with fiscal austerity policies, a loss of a third in the value of its currency, and the popularity rating of the newly elected government from the Worker's Party in single digits....

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US president Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure spending plan is being compared to the New Deal infrastructure plans of Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1930's. FDR was preceded by Republican administrations under Hoover and other presidents who followed policies that can be compared to the Reagan administration policies when public sector spending was not seen to be as efficient as private sector spending. By the time of the economic collapse in the 1930's it had become clear that only the federal government could save the country in the depression. During the pandemic and collapse of the health systems it was clear that only the federal government could save the country. It is now also evident that infrastructure building led by the government can rebuild America. In the 1930's and during other periods in American history such as the building of the Erie Canal and other public sector infrastructure projects in the 19th century it was the federal government that led the way to building America. ...

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DJT takes action on Venezuela for not taking action fast enough to accept deportees from the eight million that left the Latin American country over the last 10 years because of mismanaging the economy, runaway inflation and repression of dissent. He also cited that free and fair elections were not honored by the regime of president Maduro who followed after the death of Hugo Chavez in March 2013.

The US immigration problem comes largely from the Venezuela problem. What happened there hurt the US with the flow of millions of migrants across the border from Venezuela and gangs other elements entering the US. 

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Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, says Poland has achieved a remarkable transformation over 25 years with steady growth of 4% year after year. The bright spot is manufacturing. For emerging nations the average percentage of GDP from manufacturing exports is 22%. Poland is at 33 percent of GDP for manufacturing exports. Countries dependent on commodity exports such as Argentina, Brazil, Russia, lack this steady growth from a manufacturing base and are less likely to cross the line of $15,000 of GDP per person that qualifies for it to be called an "advanced economy" for the IMF. South Korea, the Czech Republic and Poland are some of the countries that have benefited from manufacturing exports. Poland's wages are one third of that in Germany and its currency is cheap, giving it an advantage as an export hub for German companies. Germany is the main destination for exports and the German automobile industry uses the Czech Republic and Poland as export hubs. Poland's and Czech Republic's geographical location near Germany with a highly educated population makes it attractive for German companies. Poland has gone from $2300 per capita GDP to about $13,000 in 25 years according to the IMF, and is likely to be the next country to make it to advanced economy status by 2020, says Sharma. It is important not to run up debt, to manage finances carefully, and to maintain steady growth not growth in spurts interrupted by declines, and have a manufacturing base, says Sharma.  ...

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Joe Parkinson of the WSJ gives a in-depth account of the emergence of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey's politics, with contributions by Emre Peker, Ayla Albayrak, Yeliz Candemir. Erdogan grew up in a poor neighborhood of Istanbul, and became the head of a local youth branch of the Islamist National Salvation Party in 1976 after an adolescent period steeped in mosque culture and Islamic ideas. In 1994 he is elected Mayor of Istanbul amid voter discontent with corruption and problems with infrastructure and public services. He served for four years making improvements. After reciting a poem publicly that said "the mosques are our barracks, domes our helmets, minarets our bayonets and faithful our soldiers," he is jailed for 4 months by a military backed secular government in 1999. During this period Erdogan, described by friends from his youth as having a unique ability to adapt to difficult situations, makes a transformation. He moves to the centre, coming out in favor of stronger ties to the EU, and works hard to attract support from the secular and nationalist voters to add to his conservative religious base. In 2003 he is elected prime minister as head of the Justice and Development Party. This begins a period of ten years in which Turkey sees remarkable period of economic growth during which Turkey's GNP nearly quadruples from a little over $200 billion in 2002 to $794.5 billion in 2012, according to the IMF. It may be partly coincidence and partly good management of the economy under Erdogan. Turkey's previous banking and currency crises before 2003 created a better understanding and discipline for managing the economy. Emerging markets such as Brazil, India, China, Russia, Indonesia, and other parts of Asia and Latin America were able to achieve high rates of growth during this 10 year period. Competitiveness in Brazil and Turkey has not improved significantly in this period according to experts, and large capital inflows into Turkey partly supported the credit boom in Turkey. And just as growth is slowing significantly in all emerging markets, Turkey under Erdogan faces a new test. Especially now that Erdogan is seen as autocratic in his effort to suppress protests to build an Ottoman era army barracks in Taksim Square, Istanbul. The fears of secularists in Turkey are that this is the Erdogan of the period in 1999, after serving as Mayor of Istanbul. Just as Turks turned away from the overreaching actions of the military, the public sentiment may be shifting beyond the overreaching actions of the religious parties in Turkish politics. The protests in Brazil against the Rouseff administration after the popularity of the Lula administration, show that slowing economic growth and missteps by the elected government can alienate younger voters. The parties still retain a majority but face an uncertain future in which lower economic growth and missteps lead to a search for alternatives. At the same time Turkey's efforts for accession to the EU are beng put on hold as Germany opposes the actions to suppress protests of the Justice Party in Turkey. ...

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Speaking at a banking conference, advisors including the head of Russia's largest retail bank Sberbank, German Gref, minister of the economy, Aleksei Ulyukayev, and head of the central bank , Elvira Nabiullina, express deep concern about the economic prospects in 2015. Foreign investment is down from about $90 billion in the 1st quarter of 2013 to a negligible amount in the 3rd quarter of 2014. Capital outflows following the Ukraine crisis are estimated at about $110 billion by former finance minister Alexsei Kudrin. The ruble dropped to its lowest level against the dollar since the 1990's. And the sharp decline in oil prices with Brent crude at about $90 is another risk factor as 50% of the budget comes from oil and gas revenues and 60% of exports are still oil and gas, with no serious or effective effort to diversify under the Putin adminstration. Putin told the banking conference that a deficit free budget and reserves of $460 billion are "fundamental factors supporting stability." Advisors and leading bankers remain unconvinced. The problem is that even at the beginning of 2014 before the Ukraine crisis foreign investment had slowed to a trickle, similiar to what India experienced in 2013. The central bank head says her effort to open up the bond markets in Russia to foreign investors is now in vain because there are few foreign investors. Instead of reversing the situation as is happening in India with the new Modi administration, policy under Putin and the Ukraine conflict may have scared investors away with the increasing western sanctions and stagflation (estimated 8% inflation and about 0.5% growth in 2014). The head of Sberbank Mr. Gref told the banking conference- "The Soviet Union broke apart because of the mind boggling incompetence of the Soviet leadership. They did not respect the laws of economic development." The problem with sovereign reserves is that it can protect a sovereign currency such the Russian ruble or the Brazilian cruzeiro to some extent, but today's vibrant economies need foreign investment and foreign technology for growth. Even a country such as China with a trillion dollars in reserves needs the reserves in its special case because of its billion plus aging population, and is no exception to these laws of economic development about the need for foreign technology and foreign investment. ...

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Household debt levels declined in the U.S. to 108% in 2014 for ratio of total debt to disposable income, returning to levels in 2003, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. The level reached a high of 130% for the U.S. in 2007. The reached a level exceeding 150% in Canada for 2014, which combined with decline in oil revenues with lower oil prices puts additional stress on the Canadian economy. In Japan the level has declined to 125% in 2014. France is close to the U.S. level, up significantly since 2003. Germany's ratio declined significantly to about 90% in 2014. In the U.S. consumer credit levels were up 2.3% in the 3rd quarter as credit for consumer purchases such as autos and appliances increased. Credit for home mortgages increased only slightly by 0.1%, as demand for new homes remained sluggish and banks imposed stricter standards following the mortgage crisis. U.S. households continued to pay down mortgage and credit card debt.

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Portugal's finance minister Vitor Gaspar says all taxpayers will pay an additional tax of about 4% on annual income in 2013. The tax brackets will go down from eight to five raising average tax rates. Other measures include a "solidarity tax" on top earners of 2.5%. These tax increases will raise about 2 billion euros. Public workers will forego one paycheck, and there will be a new tax on financial transactions. Portugal's plan is to lower the budget deficit to 4.5% in 2013 from a deficit of 5% in 2012. The economy will contract by 3% in 2012 and 1% in 2013, with unemployment going up to 16.4% in 2013, according to government projections. Gaspar says "the tax rises will divide the effort equitably among the Portuguese population." Earlier tax proposals for raising worker payroll taxes and reducing employer contributions in a questionable effort to promote growth were discarded. This happened after they were seen as a transfer from workers to business and depressing consumer spending resulting in wide scale protests, with opposition also coming from the business community....

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South Korean president Moon Jae-in sees his popularity drop from a high of 83% with the outreach efforts to North Korea, to 60% by July 2018 with concern about the economy. Presdent Moon-Jae-in made a campaign pledge for $9 minimum wage by 2020. Recently the minimum wage was increased by about 11% for 2019 after a 16% increase for 2018. Job growth slowed from 836,000 in first 6 months of 2018 compared to 2.15 million for the prior year.

Critics say the increase affects mom and pop small business and results in slower job growth. Youth unemployment is at 9%.

Moon's 83% approval rating is still unusual for South Korea. The opposition conservative party has only 14% approval rating and the previous democratically elected presidents left office with 30% approval.

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Wang Yi, a senior adviser for China's decarbonization strategy and 5 year plan has this to say about China's approach to climate change. Yi says it is more important to focus on what actions are to be taken between now and 2030. Here he says China has outlined concrete steps that it will take that the world media has not covered in its coverage of COP26 Glasgow. Yi says China is making changes to its entire system not only its energy sector, across the whole society and the economy. Yet he says "nobody knows this." The working guidance document for carbon control China has put out says it will peak coal consumption by 2025.  Yi says it is unfair to ask China to close all coal powered plants, saying that if these plants with a life of 10 years were closed now who will pay for stranded assets and who will hire the laid off workers. He called attention to western nations failure to provide climate finance to China, India and developing countries. And he called attention to the the plans that by 2030 Chinese investment is to have 1200 gigawatts of installed solar and wind energy, more than the entire installed electricity capacity of the US. He says we are all in the same boat yet in different cabins, with some living in bigger space and consuming too much. ...

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Germany is struggling to deal with the 2.4 million asylum seekers entering the country since 2015. It is getting overwhelmed by the scale of migrants even though immigrants are needed in parts of the economy. In Austria and Poland new restrictions are being placed to stop migrant flow. Denmark has a socialist government that is restricting migrants from entering the country. Britain under Starmer and Labour has made cutting migrant flow a major priority, the Tories failure to cut migrants flow led to its defeat in 2024.

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This report in WSJ shows how European countries are maintaining salaries of employees who would otherwise be laid off. Governments have setup programs in France, Britain, Germany and other countries to provide employers with the money for 80-84% of salaries up to 2500 pounds ($3165) in Britain and 5330 euros a month in France. As a result 1 worker out of three in the private sector in France for subsidy applications for 6.9 million workers are already received. For the German program 2.4 million workers will get this benefit. About 1 million companies in Europe retain employees with this program of governments simply sending out the salaries with funds directly to households. This helps to keep out the stress for families, particularly families with children. It is as if the employees are not really laid off but asked to stay at home for manufacturing facilities and work from home in shorter hours where work can be done remotely.  Money is quickly deposited into the bank account of employees in these countries, though it is slower in Italy and Spain. It is as if the European approach is put the whole economy on pause for 2 months and restart it almost like before with only a small dent in employment once the coronavirus is pushed out with lockdowns and strict control actions. This will cap German unemployment at 5.9% compared with 5% last year, only a modest increase. The cost is not that much considering what it accomplishes. 10 billion euros is the cost in Germany where the state fund for this has 26 billion euros. 10 billion pounds in Britain. And 20 billion euros in France.  The U.S. adopts a similar approach also through its $349 billion program which provides loans to companies with less than 500 employees to meet payroll for 8 weeks and pay some overhead. Loans are forgiven based on job retention and employees on the payroll and only if the employees are retained. Another program is for companies larger than this. And a third program targets entire industries such as airlines, aerospace, and companies in other industries so that they do not have to layoff employees. U.S. unemployment insurance is modified to work along similar lines maintaining incomes of employees laid off because of the pandemic. Another program sends checks directly of $1200 to households with lower incomes to help them and to help people at poverty level or without jobs. The thrust of both the European and American efforts is the same, lose as few jobs as possible, keep people's incomes steady, and do this in a way that the economy can pick up quickly to the former level in as short a time as possible. Compared to Europe U.S. unemployment will be higher predicted at 9.8% with the expected rebound lowering the unemployment in 2021. ...

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Christina Romer, economic advisor to President Obama, offers a different view about monetary policy in 2011, suggesting that monetary easing after QE II should continue. She also argues for higher stimulus. She cites the improved economy in the period 1933-1937 as an example of the advantages of monetary easing, of 1937-1940 as a period where a focus on deficits resulted in a fall back of the U.S. economy. This is a view presented also by Paul Krugman. Meltzer's and Fed Governor Hoenig's view is that excessive monetary easing in 2003 created bubbles and that QE II has not reduced unemployment. Meltzer warned in 2009 that excessive monetary easing needed to be gradually withdrawn rather than risk an excesssive contraction later on.

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The 1985 hit "Small Town" by John Mellencamp is about Seymour, Indiana. Republican State Representative Jim Lucas says the city of Seymour welcomes immigrants legally here who are properly vetted. The concern is about migrants not vetted and not legally here. At a recent city council meeting Lucas attended it was decided not to go ahead with an economic development agenda. Says Lucas- “However, Seymour has changed drastically in just the past few years, and many of us are obviously concerned about the direction we are headed,” he added. New immigrant cases or migrant arrivals for Jackson county, Indiana, where Seymour is located went up to 435 in 2024 from 66 in 2021. It is at that point that the welcome center idea ran into opposition in this small town in Indiana, an hour from Indianapolis population 21,000 in Jackson County. As the town's population mix changes - it was 1% Hispanic in 1990, then 5% Hispanic in 2000- jumping in two decades of Bush-Obama-Trump-Biden to 25% Hispanic, questions besides economic about the sense of uneasiness of resident came up. Also of cultural literacy of the state of Indiana, and of the history of the state within the Union forged by Washington and Lincoln, FDR and Eisenhower, and of Wendell Wilkie of Elwood, Indiana. Unemployment rate for Jackson County is 3.3%, median income $63,000, home ownership 57%. Issues were not about the economy alone, and about how many immigrants could be absorbed and the cultural and language literacy of arriving migrants. There were issues about the perceived crime rate (metrics show traffic related offenses were up), and about drawing too much of the school's resources as English learning went up slowing learning in the schools. Republican State Representative Jim Lucas says it is crowding the health care clinic downtown with immigrants. ...

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Russia's Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, says Russia's economy contracted in the first of 2014 compared with the prior quarter. Intensifed capital flows and lack of new investment could lead to the economy and GDP declining by 1.8% in 2014, according to the ministry forecast. Russia experienced capital outflows of $60 billion in the 2014 1st quarter, almost as much as for all of 2013. Russian law caps spending not covered by direct revenue at 1% of GDP. He called for tapping the rainy day fund for spending on infrastructure and investment to revive growth. Currently much of the revenue from high oil prices goes into building up the rainy day fund, used to cushion the impact of financial crises, after learning from the disaster of the 1998 financial crisis when the ruble collapsed.

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Gerald Seib of the WSJ says president Biden is coming back with new actions to revive the Democratic agenda after a challenging period in the first year. Yesterday's first formal press conference of 2022 gave Biden an opportunity to respond. Why the WSJ, NYT, did not cover on their online edition front pages president Biden's first formal press conference on Jan. 19, after 1 year of the Biden administration, will remain a mystery. With the American press acting this way it did not take much for Germany's DW.com to run the story with the title "Biden's first year weighed down by disappointment," with a thoughtful Biden at the press conference replaced by a picture of Biden staring downwards.  This is only the first year of the Biden administration. Actions are planned to ease the supply chain situation and bottlenecks at ports. Much is made of inflation, Afghanistan, Ukraine, by Republicans assailing the Biden record. President Biden responded to this by asking at the press conference what Republicans are for. On Afghanistan Biden held firm on not investing billions of dollars every week when there is so much need in America and the rest of the world at this time of the pandemic after a failed adventure for 20 years in "a graveyard for empires."  Biden pointed to the bright spots in 2022- vaccination and testing achievements in the face of anti-vax sentiment with 200 million vaccinated, the job creation in the economy with unemployment way down and wage increases by employers, and the $1 trillion in infrastructure spending tackling much needed projects state by state with immediate impact. Rarely has a president faced so many challenges in the first year as Biden pointed out- vaccination drive in the face of the Delta variant and anti-vax sentiment, the Ukraine crisis with a president Truman period like event of the Berlin Wall coming up just potentially around the corner, and efforts to tackle problems left untackled for a generation in infrastructure, for working families and climate change. Scoring on infrastructure spending, one of the three, with the other two for working families and climate change to be tackled in the remaining three years and beyond.  Biden also told the American audience at the press conference that he was reminded of what his father used to tell him- that if all goals are equally important, nothing is important. In saying this he said help for working families through child tax credit, child care assistance, community college education funding, health care costs, climate change investment were priorities for his administration that would be tackled step by step. And he pointed out from the outset of the conference that only one or two senators were blocking the party's plan for children and working families. All 48 other senators were united in the Democratic party behind his plans for workers and families. As were 5 Republican senators who he said he would not disclose because of confidentiality. In that sense president Biden already has the majority he needs in Congress. This is not happening because of the peculiar situation of the 2016 and 2020 elections in the US and also in Europe- the historical problem of administrations of Democrats in US, Social Democrats in Germany, and Labor in Britain having give up on their working class families and middle class roots. Tech revolution and internet has further complicated the situation with economic changes, tech companies not paying taxes normally due, and tech workers shifting to Democrats yet living in a world distant from working class families fracturing social cohesion. This is changing in Germany with Scholz in Germany with the help of the Greens determined to restore the dignity of working class families, for Biden with a similar coalition, and a process underway in Britain as Labor returns to its roots. In essence Biden was saying- the process of unwinding decades of unwise policy that hurt America as a nation and leader of the free world would take time, requiring a patient step by step approach. To bring America closer to its own roots and Jefferson's immortal words of "all men are created equal and endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, and among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness." Jefferson went on to say in the Declaration that when government becomes destructive of these ends it is the Right of the People to alter it.   ...

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Barley points out the resignation of prime minister Monti in Italy is not a cause for panic, as his likely successor Luigi Bersani, head of the centre left Democratic party which leads in the polls with its electoral alliance having about 43% support, has committed to following through with Monti's policies and committments to the EU. Berlusconi is not the factor he once was with only 15% support in the polls, and anti establishment parties opposing public corruption such as Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement appealing to younger people have about 20% support changing the political landscape in Italy. Other factors favoring Italy- a lower level of debt redemption in 2013 of 158 billion euros compared to 200 billion euros for 2012 will lower Italian bond issuance, Italy's primary budget surplus, the Italian economy bottoming out, and credit conditions improving. Year to date Italian bonds have returned 19.5%, and he sees no reason for an exit from Italian bonds. If polls continue to show a committment to the policies introduced by Monti, Italian bonds will continue to be attractive for investors. By setting Italy on the path to restoring and strengthening governance Monti has removed a key element for volatility in Italian bonds....

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China's strategy for climate change action makes allowance for the need for coal as base energy, and insurance to prevent factory shutdowns from shortfalls of hydroelectric energy in drought seasons. It planned 80GW in 2024 for new coal powered plant construction. 

What should the US do? DJT and Republicans including North Dakota Governor Borghum say the US should also make some room for this in transition policy. DJT calls it "drill baby drill." Yet it is more nuanced than that, it means US will produce natural gas to supply Europe and keep gas and electricity prices down as a cost of living action. DJT knows industry has already put in plans for renewable energy production, it just won't be accelerated in ways that won't let the US economy grow. This is the rational for Alaska oil and gas and rare minerals policies shown alongside this article.

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Landers and Gale of the WSJ show how undersupplied conscript soldiers, high inflation and industrial breakdowns during wartime have led to major upheavals in Russia. Three conflicts led to such changes in Russia's domestic situation. The Russo-Japanese war in 1905 led to Russia seeing one fourth of 340,000 Russian troops killed in a battle near the Chinese city of Shenyang, and loss of most of its Baltic fleet in a Japanese attack on Port Arthur. The war ended with a peace treaty arranged by president Theodore Roosevelt of the United States. The Russian czar gave up most of his absolute powers in 1905.  In 1914 Ukraine was involved in regime change as the Germans fought to take Ukraine. The czar wanted to keep Russia's expansive sphere of influence. Without Ukraine's agriculture and industry and its population Russia would not be a great power, says an expert on Czarist Russia. At the time the Russian military was ill prepared in motorized vehicles and communications equipment, and industry lacked the ability to resupply the military. Inflation jumped leading to unrest and protests. Fighting in the First World War led to millions of refugees. In 2022 experts see the same old problem of seeking spheres of influence leading to wars, and the lack of sufficient ability to cope with prolonged wars when short wars were expected by the regimes in power in Russia. Dissent inside Russia and protests led to the abdication of Czar Nicholas in March 2017, and Bolsheviks led by Lenin seizing power in November of 2017. By 1979 Ukrainian leader Leonid Brezhnev was leader of the Soviet Union as Russia's economy could not keep up with modernization. Seeking spheres of influence Brezhnev pushed into a long war in Afghanistan in the mistaken idea that a quick strike on Kabul with a change in government would achieve Soviet goals in central Asia. By 1989 the Russian army withdrew from Afghanistan and in 1990 the protests led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union and emergence of Russia as a separate country. Landers and Gale of the WSJ see these events in Russian history showing how wars have led to domestic changes and upheavals in Russia when leaders projected power beyond Russia's capacity to handle the results of conflict. Russia's economy is about the size of Italy or Britain say experts and its industry much smaller than the European Union economies and the US, Japan combined.  ...