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Reeves says Reagan ever the imaginative politician seized on the idea of "supply side " economics of a not so well known economist Arthur Laffer. Ideas that were simple and appealing- you reduce marginal tax rates and generate higher revenues. This worked for some time with higher economic growth for a number of years, but the arithmetic of higher spending and borrowing and lower taxes would eventually lead to large deficits at the end of Reagan's term, just as price controls worked for awhile and then led to a surge in prices at the end of Nixon's term. When Reagan became President the deficit was 2.5%, when he left office eight years later the deficit was 5% of the economy. Interest payments on debt jumped to $169 billion in 1988, from $69 billion in 1981. Reeves says American politicians know so little about economics, to which it could be added, winning presidential and congressional elections is always a big part of the picture when it comes to economic policy. Which is why Nixon even with Milton Friedman as an advisor shifted to Keynesian policies of higher fiscal spending in 1971, and why Reagan turns to intuitively appealing and effective in the short term policies of having it all- higher spending, growth, and lower taxes. During the years of the two Bush presidencies and the Clinton administration the success of Reagan policies leads to a general sense as Vice President Cheney put it referring to Reagan and Treasury Secretary Baker's belief, that "deficits don't matter." Which leads us to the current situation where 2012 presidential election politics again frame the terms of the debate on deficits and budgets, only now the deficit is much higher and on a unsustainable path. ...

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This WSJ editorial says prime minister Abe deserves to continue his efforts to revive the economy after Abe calls a snap election for Dec. 2014. It says the Finance Ministry's ideas for increasing spending and taxes have not worked to win over deflation. It points to the need for prime minister Abe to take supply side actions and get the Third Arrow of structural reform to work.

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Israel's prime minister Netayahu and U.S. president Obama move further apart with serious disagreement on when to impose further sanctions on Iran for nuclear weapons development. Netanyahu accepts an invitation from Speaker Boehner to address the U.S. Congress in 2015. Republicans face a serious divide with the U.S. president with serious disagreements in domestic policy, including immigration, taxes, and ways of addressing increasing inequality.

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PM Modi has been invited by Macron to Bastille day in Paris, France's National Day on July 14, as an official guest, a first for an Indian leader in Europe. This happens as India's strategic partnership with France takes new shape in sectors such as civil aviation with significant Indian expansion, in defense, in nuclear cooperation for energy, in renewable energy, and is expanding into other sectors. India's defense forces will also take part with French forces in the parade on Bastille Day in France. Bastille Day is the national day of France with parades and a national holiday. It was established in 1880 and marks the storming of the Bastille on July 14, 1789 with the French revolution for Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite, and of the National Federation Day July 14, 1790.

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This time there is less exposure for foreign investors as the Turkish lira drops because Turkish holdings were reduced. Turkey bondholdings have come down by half and holding of Turkey stocks down by 40%. The decline of the lira also reduced Turkish assets in benchmark emerging market indexes - in MSCI to 0.2%, and in JPMorgan's bond index to 1.1% from 5%. 

So far the situation in Turkey has not spread to other emerging markets such as Russia, Mexico and Brazil. With the Fed looking at raising interest rates earlier than planned, slower growth in China that takes in developing country commodity exports, emerging market assets are under some pressure. The WSJ Dollar Index was at a 15 month high on Nov. 24 and continues to be close to this.

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Gen. Milley is not alone in saying this- that the Joint Chiefs chairman takes an oath to the Constitution of America, which he calls "the idea of America," a Constitution that starts with the words "We the People." Enshrined in these words in the Preamble to the US Constitution is the idea of the "inalienable rights" of man to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Vice president Mike Pence affirmed that the oath was to the Constitution of the US before Milley, and Attorney General William Barr affirmed this before Mr. Pence.  Three of the senior most positions in the US government during the presidency of Mr. Trump. It showed a parting of ways of three of the most senior persons in his administration with Mr. Trump.

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The Fed's Jerome Powell makes a half percentage point rate cut that takes the federal funds rate to between 4.75% and 5.00%.  11 of 12 Fed governors supported the decision for a half percentage point rate cut.

Powell said:

"We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength. This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained.”

This is the US central bank's, the Fed's response to high cost of living concerns in the US. It provides relief to households with credit card balances, and business with variable rate debt. Rates for corporate debt and mortgages had started declining in anticipation of rate cuts.

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In Brazil's 2018 elections most candidates talk about shoring up crumbling infrastructure, and law and order. Yet no one talks about the budget crisis as there is no money left for doing this.  Shocking as this may sound after years of overspending and a recession, Brazil now uses borrowed money to pay pensions and salaries, and keep schools and hospitals open. Brazil's public spending exceeds revenue by about 7% of annual economic output. Taxes are already 40% of economic output, according to CIA's World Factbook website, making it hard to raise taxes.  This WSJ analysis says you cannot overstate the problem in Brazil as about two thirds of the budget goes to paying old age pensions, payroll of public sector and public healthcare. By 2020 these liablilities will grow to the point there is nothing left for discretionary spending such as roads, infrastructure, new hospitals, police equipment. Trimming pensions and freezing wages are likely options to tackle the problem. Still this leaves Brazil with the prospect of a lost decade.   Neighboring Argentina is experiencing a contracting economy and had to turn to the IMF for assistance.  The decline in GDP comes as a new conservative administration took over promising an improvement in the economy. The peso declined by 18% in 2018 so far leaving Argentina's public and private debt of $166 billion which is 80% denominated in U.S. dollars much harder to pay off. The stronger dollar has hurt Argentina leading to a $50 billion support agreement with the IMF.  Much of Latin America is now in an economic crisis. ...

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The Iraqi army takes over the Al Nuri Grand Mosque in Mosul, but what the mosque and the city itself lie in ruins. The minaret is gone in the debris, a shattered city is what is left from the Islamic State takeover of the city in 2014 and the eight month effort in 2017 by the Iraqi army to retake the city.   For more depth see links and groups or search- The problems of Mosul started with the openly sectarian administration of prime minister Nouri Maliki leading to alienation of Sunnis in Mosul. Corruption in the administration and weakness in the Iraqi army combined with alienation of Sunnis to create an opening for a militant group Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. As Iraqi units disintegrated Mosul fell, leading to a worsening of the refugee crisis in Syria and Iraq, increasing the flood of refugees to Europe, and the series of terrorist incidents in Paris, Berlin, London, rise of right wing groups in the European Union, in a chain reaction. The failure of the Obama administration to setup a "no fly zone" in Syria simply compounded the crisis into what it is today. At the root of the crisis - the failed efforts to reconcile Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq, and the sectarian conflicts in the region as a whole stretching from Saudi Arabia and Egypt to Iran.     ...

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As corporate America takes stock of the damage it finds on April 12, 2020-

270 companies have draw on existing credit lines or added ones for a total $221 billon in new debt.

100 companies furloughing 3 million employees.

Unemployment insurance claims filed by 17 million people.

Airlines, retail and automobiles some of the worst hit industries.

President Trump acted quickly on April 11, to save the oil and gas industry by negotiating cuts with OPEC+ so that oil prices do not collapse at the opening of markets on April 13 from the price of $22  barrel. He also pledged to save Boeing.

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The Iran nuclear deal of 2015 begins to unravel as the European Union takes the first step towards the reimposing of sanctions. Britain, France and Germany triggered a dispute settlement mehanism in the agreement which can result in the United Nations reimposing international sanction on Iran's economy, banks, and top officials within 2 months. This follows Iran's resumption of nuclear activities banned under the agreement. Earlier the U.S. withdrew from the agreement and the European Union tried to save the agreement. Recent tensions and the U.S. insistence on the renegotiating for a new agreement have led to this collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran.

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With the arrival of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, and John Bolton as National Security Adviser, president Trump finds support for his own instincts on foreign policy. On North Korea, Iran, and China, president Trump takes charge of foreign policy favoring strong bargaining pressure to achieve foreign policy  goals in trade, containing nuclear weapons and reducing conflicts. He sees the peace talks with North Korea as moving in the right direction with his efforts, and makes the decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 on May 8, 2018, as he leaves the door open for new negotiations with Iran for a better deal that achieves U.S. goals.

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Winkler says the Autonomy acquisition could be a useful step in executing H-P CEO Apotheker's new strategy to focus on higher margin businesses, but it comes at an expensive price tag. H-P paid ten times expected revenue for Autonomy, or 20 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. This is too much cash considering that the share price of H-P has dropped by half since February 2011.

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Apple has foreign cash holdings of $64 billion, as of the end of the last fiscal quarter, which increased by 82% over the prior year. Its U.S. holdings are $34 billion, increasing by 37% over the prior year. Companies that repatriate funds from overseas get credit for taxes paid overseas, but pay the difference up to the corporate tax rate of 35%. This acts as a disincentive to bring back funds.

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Syriza party's young leader Alexis Tsipras retains popularity even as Greece accepts the third bailout program from the EU with conditions for pension reform and tax changes. He now says some of the pension reforms were necessary even in the absence of the bailout conditions, saying it is not normal for someone to retire at age 45 or 50. He also says that he is fighting tax evasion so that the rich pay their share of taxes. The mainstream parties have lost confidence because the programs did not ensure a equitable sharing of tax and other measures, and more of the burden falling on the poor. In contrast to Portugal where the tax burden is shared more equitably, more of the burden in Greece has fallen on the poor and less affluent.

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This WSJ editorial says GE's decision to exit the banking business follows the U.S. Federal Reserve's move to designate GE Capital a "systemically important financial institution," subject to extra scrutiny by the Fed and stricter regulation. This reduces the potential for higher returns that existed in the earlier environment of limited regulation. It points out that GE was so keen on escaping the "too big to fail" label and stricter regulatory oversight that it was willing to pay $6 billion in taxes to repatriate cash from overseas as part of shrinking GE Capital. In an earlier editorial in 2011 WSJ pointed to the role of GE Capital in the financial crisis of 2008, when GE shares dropped to $6 and GE needed government rescue funds.

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Ruth Marcus looks at the assumptions behind Romney's tax plan and questions whether simplifying the tax system with lower rates would help create the climate for higher economic growth and lower unemployment. Much of the differences between Republicans and Democrats revolve around this assumption, a core belief on one side and skepticism on the other. An effort to obtain a bipartisan assessment was made with the Simpson-Bowles commission recommendations, which advised closing loopholes and reducing deductions. The work done by Martin Feldstein on the Romney Tax plan builds on this approach of limiting deductions, and reducing taxes across the board. An issue for Democrats is inequality. Lower wages to improve competitiveness in manufacturing industry is a trend in Republican and Democratic administrations, because of the effort to improve U.S. competitiveness against other trading nations and has played a large part in lowering incomes in manufacturing oriented midwest and eastern states. The other cause of increasing inequality is the housing crisis and the effects on the economy through foreclosures and unemployment. The housing crisis developed under a Republican administration, and the lack of effective measures to prevent foreclosures under the last 4 years of a Democratic administration worsened the economic condition of the middle class, and especially so for minorities. During the housing and foreclosure crisis the proposals put forward by Republicans Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist, and Sheila Bair, head of the FDIC who calls herself a "populist from Kansas," for bold government help to homeowners under water would have helped the middle class financially, and especially minorities, far more than the efforts of the Democratic Obama administration, and under Feldstein's plan even turned aound the housing market and boosted a recovery. Trends in world trade and industry have large effects outside what administrations of either party can control, and a lot depends on the temperament, wisdom and leadership provided....

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U.S. states face their biggest cash crisis since the Great Depression as a result of rapidly declining tax revenues with a state budget shortfall of $434 billion, says this report in the WSJ. This is larger than the 2019 K-12 education budget for every state combined, or more than twice the amount spent that year on state roads and transportation infrastructure. Rainy day funds will be exhausted by the loss in tax revenues after the pandemic closures of business. Nevada, Louisiana, New Jersey and Florida are the worst hit states. The result will be cutbacks in the future and more pressure on the retirement benefits for police, firefighters, teachers, government workers. Over 60% of the revenues of states come from sales and income taxes to meet the general operating funds. Drops in consumer spending and large job losses from the pandemic affect these revenues. Local government workforces were cut by 1 million people. In Michigan 31,000 state workers were furloughed 2 days per pay period for 10 weeks, and others were laid off. Rainy day funds set up after the 2008 crisis are exhausted. Only federal funds are keeping states afloat with a lot of uncertainty about 2021. The state budget director in Michigan calculated that even if the state got rid of 12 state departments including education environment and treasury, all reserves would be gone, and there would still be $1 billion budget shortfall. The rainy day funds set up after 2008 crisis accumulated $50 billion in U.S. states which have helped somewhat, with federal funds helping tackle shortfalls. Yet 2021 looms with huge shortfalls and expected cutbacks across the U.S. ...

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The discussion on whether it is feasible to achieve any significant cost savings as long as middle class consumers are not cost conscious about their employer provided health insurance. This would be so as long as their health insurance benefits are not taxed as income. America suffers from a particularly strong case of not minding the price increases imposed by the health care industry as long as its not out of pocket cost. But Obama seems stuck on his insistence that the middle class not take on any burden, that there be no middle class tax in the form of this tax on health care benefits. Critics say even FDR did this by having the middle class pay with payroll contributions for Medicare and Social Security. And even if the 5% of Americans who make more than $280,000 are taxed it will not generate by itself the money to pay for the $1 trillion cost of the plan, as the prospects of cost reduction are uncertain- especially when the basic nature of America's health care system are not changed, like the lack of cost consciousness of consumers of health care when its perceived to be free and employer provided....

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The difficult task facing Governor Jerry Brown of making the painful cuts in education, the state's university system and social services, as he faces a $15.7 billion gap in the state budget. The Republicans in the legislature have made it difficult for governors in the state to get the two thirds majority to increase taxes, and the Democrats have opposed the spending cuts, leading to chronic budget shortfalls. Governor Brown says unless temporary tax increases, including quarter percent rise in sales taxes and income tax surcharge on the wealthy are passed, California will have to make cuts of $6 billion in January 2013. This would include cuts in public schools and the university system. This would be in addition to cuts of $8.3 billion he has proposed for cuts in welfare, social services, and health care for the elderly. Experts say the political culture in the state is a problem, and is proving to be impervious to this governor's long years of experience and considerable skills. Jerry Brown says California, and the U.S. are both living beyond their means and need to take the medicine....

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Academy Heights Elementary, of Pinehurst, N. Carolina, is expected to close as part of the cost cutting efforts in North Carolina. The state is trying to close a budget deficit. Monroe County's superintendent proposed closing the school to save $500,000. The school has a 98% pass rate on state exams, an award winning math program. It is ranked the second best kindergarden to 5th grade schools in North Carolina. Parents and teachers point out that many of the students come from middle class families where both parents are working, and military families from Fort Bragg, and this is not just the demographics of being near Pinehurst resort; as higher income parents tend to send their children to private schools. They point to the way staff, parents and students work to create an environment that challenges children to learn. The questions here remain ones that are being taken up throughout the country- how to invest or disinvest in education in the face of budget deficits. Should education take cuts and how much? Another twist here is that Academy Heights is in a depressed black neighborhood of Tarrytown whose residents go to to other schools even though Academy Heights urges students from Tarrytown to apply. It is an elementary school and as elementary education has a special role to play in early childhood development, how much of these cuts should fall on elementary schools? Should the best schools be cut under any circumstances or should they be supported with sacrifices made elsewhere or do moderately higher taxes make sense in these situations? Does it make sense to preserve existing excellent schools even as the search for improvement in educational systems takes place -with investments like the $290 million the Gates foundation is committing to improving selected schools? produce excellence in other schools?...

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The Social Democrats leader Sigmar Gabriel is Economics Minister in the coalition government of Angela Merkel in Germany. He is sympathetic to French premier Manuel Valls effort to reduce austerity in the 2015 French budget now being reviewed by Brussels. Here he takes the initiative to call for discussion on the issue of growth and austerity facing the European Union, by joining French Economics minister Emmanuel Macron in asking two economists Pisani-Ferry and Enderlein at the Berlin Institute of Governance for advice on generating growth. The process started in late summer with the defeat of the centre right government in Sweden which supported Merkel's strict austerity policies for balanced budgets. The elections to the European parliament showed the dire situation facing Cameron in Britain and Hollande in France with the unpopularity of austerity policies, higher taxes and cutbacks. The Socialist Hollande government has the lowest public opinion ratings of any postwar government in France, at 18%, and it is unwilling to go further down the road with austerity. At the same time Valls has found a partner in Italy with the growing popularity of Matteo Renzi in Italy who won 40% of the vote in Italy for the EU parliamentary elections of 2014. ECB president Mario Draghi, has generated the debate by saying at a October 2014 Brookings Institution conference in Washington D.C. that countries that have fiscal space (referring to Germany) should use it. He added that governments that did not take action in the economic crisis facing the eurozone of no growth will be swept away by public opinion. IMF president Lagarde, a former French Finance Minister under Sarkozy, has also questioned policy of strict austerity. For the first time since the start of the eurozone crisis in 2010 there is an opportunity for open discussion on future policies for renewal in the eurozone....