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Approaching euro dollar parity and the weakening currencies in Japan and Britain is the subject of this editorial in the WSJ. The ECB is focused on preventing divergence in bond rates of Germany and Italy more than it is in fighting inflation. The Fed in the US is increasing rates aggressively to curb inflation. This divergence in policies of central banks is making the dollar stronger.

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The S&P 500 index gained 5.9% the week of October 29th for its best gain since November 2022. For 2023 it has gained 14%. A jobs report showing less job growth of 150,000 slightly higher unemployment at 3.9% and slowing inflation, led the US Fed to pause raising interest rates. This has created optimism that inflation would gradually decline which is good for the economy.

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Both presidents Biden in 2024 and Carter in 1980 faced high inflation that reduced their popularity, under Biden over 9% and under Carter 13%. Cost of living became a major issue as wage increases did not keep pace with inflation. WSJ attributes the inflation under Carter to policies of Richard Nixon and failure of the Fed under Miller and Volcker to control inflation. It attributes the inflation under Biden to Covid spending and on top of that the Spending under the Inflation Reduction Act and other bills passed to rebuild infrastructure. Biden and Fed's Powell did bring inflation down in 2024, and it had also to do with supply bottlenecks, opportunistic behaviour by retailers in 2022-2023.  A significant weakness for Biden was the Border and failure to act quickly under Homeland Security head Alejandro Mayorkas, against whom the Republicans started impeachment proceedings. Added to this was the continued flow of fentanyl destroying American lives. Another weakness was the unease of parents with policies on transgender. On foreign policy the Obama policy of funding Iran under the nuclear negotiated agreement increased risks for Israel and emboldened Iran. ...

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A look at the top candidates of the SPD, Greens and CDU parties in Germany in the upcoming elections for the German parliament. This election is likely to bring in a government that sets a new direction for Germany after the pandemic and the social, economic crises.

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Peter Fisher spent 15 years at the New York Fed and was Under Secretary of the Treasury for domestic finance. Interviewed by Maria Bartiromo he says the fourth quarter is going to be very hard and its going to take several quarters to get some stability and freeing up credit markets. Why did this happen. We had says Peter Fisher several years of negative interest rates the middle of this decade, and its this essentially free money that distorted the system. Capitalism he says is premised on the idea that capital is a scarce commodity rationed with a price mechanism. And everybody took advantage of this to leverage themselves too far from the clever guys on Wall Street to people in the housing and financial services industries. This in his view was the engine that led the economy so far astray. Fisher does not believe all financial institutions should be treated by fed and treasury the same way. The ones that overly leveraged with weak managements and are doing poorly ad not likely to survive should be closed. Once it is clear that the prospects for some financial institutions are dim and their survival is uncertain he thinks Fed and Treasury should not wait around for consolidation but close these as quickly as possible. He sees some banks being closed and not just commercial banks. ...

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Peter Eavis describes the results of the new Federal Reserve LISCC's determination under Tarullo, Gibson and Taylor, to bring discipline to financial markets and reduce systemic risk. Over the last 3 years Goldman Sachs has spent $16.3 billion in buybacks, about 70% of profits, to return money to shareholders and improve metrics such as earnings per share. This strategy will now have to be reversed. With the Fed stress tests in Feb. 2015 the focus is on banks with large trading desks. Goldman unlike other banks has counted on a strategy of preserving a large trading operation in the hope that this will earn the bank larger profits when the market recovers. This does not sit well with the Fed in the 2015 stress tests- showing a $23.8 billion loss if the stock market fell by 60% in a crisis, leaving Goldman with a bare minimum in reserves. Goldman will now have to reduce the buybacks to add to reserves after the current stress tests, and pare down its trading desk operation.

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Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke's writings as a professor at Princeton on the banking crisis in Japan after the real estate bubble, a crisis similiar to what the U.S. is experiencing.

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says this is not chaos in tariff policy because you don't change 70 years of policy overnight. He says China's is highest because it has the highest trade deficit, then EU, Japan, South Korea at 15% because of the smaller deficits with these nations, Vietnam because it is used  by China to send products to the US, India because of geopolitical reasons buying Russian oil. See Dasha Burns, Politico White House Bureau Chief's  interview with USTR Jamieson Greer.  He says about India- Jamieson USTR calls India "an outlier" and says "I'm confident we will get a deal with India in the near future." India he says has largely corrected its imports of Russian oil and negotiations are underway for a deal.  ON USMCA Greer says of the $31 trillion in trade with Canada and Mexico $29 trillion is us right. trade between Canda and Mexico is small. So he says it makes sense to negotiate separately with Canada and separately with Mexico. This suggests that there doesnt need to be a USMCA- separate deals are just fine says Greer. Mexico has gained much in automobiles under USMCA- US wants to make more in the US including auto parts which it can do by negotiating this with Mexico. It does not make a ton of economic sense to marry the three economies together, says Greer, as the import export profiles, lab,or situations are all different. Are Tariffs good for the economy and do they lead to higher prices? Greer says inflation was down in the first DJT term in trade with China and tariffs. Greer says there is never a 1 to 1 with tariffs. It tariffs become a kind of leveage in getting agreements. That is the style of these tariffs. You tell Ecuador or Brazil we don't make these here so there will be no tariffs on bananas and on coffee. Says Greer- we have seen inflation in check, imported goods relatively low priced. We have seen that we can have growth and higher wages with tariffs at the same time. The growth in 2025 third quarter at 3.8% annual growth, and Atlanta Fed predicting 4.2% growth in 2026. And tariff money can be used for paying down the debt and financing America's reindustrialization, Greer says members of Congress are asking about this.When a new administration comes tariffs will still be part of the playbook. ...

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In this report November 29, 2019 Jeanna Smialek in the NYT raises the cautionary flag on the Randy Quarles  period as Fed's vice chair of supervision. The Fed and FDIC report issued April 29th 2023, puts the fault for the lax supervision of Silicon Valley Bank on the culture that sees the less regulation the better.  Smialek shows the meetings Randy Quarles had including with a former employer Davis Polk Wardwell- Republican Senators 29, Democratic Senators 17  Davis Polk  law firm 22,                     Daniel Tarullo his predecessor 0 Goldman Sachs 24, JP Morgan Chase 22                   Daniel Tarullo his predecessor had this to say about Quarles role at Fed- It is he said "A kind of low intensity deregulation, consisting of an accumulation of non-headline grabbing changes and an opaque relaxation of regulatory vigor." To which Quarles reply is- "The argument that it is a drip-by-drip erosion: the quantification of that, they can't really demonstrate any quantifiable reduction in the overall resilience of the industry." The Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank crisis could have damaged the US banking system, and the capacity of the US to make the huge needed investments in the country, without the strong action of the Biden administration. It showed the very erosion of banking supervision that Smialek pointed out in the NYT in 2019. The costs of a weakening of the banking system and the US capacity to invest in the country are borne by the American people, by workers and families in the US. Which is why the Biden administration acted quickly and decisively to limit the ripples from this crisis.       ...

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Prof. Cochrane of the University of Chicago goes over the Federal Reserve's new "Enhanced Prudential Standards and Early Remediation Requirements" for big banks. He finds serious shortcomings in the Fed's proposals to regulate the largest banks. He points to the proposal that puts less than one dollar at risk for every 10 borrowed dollars as ridiculously low, and says the Fed is admitting it really does not know how to correctly measure and regulate credit exposure in today's banking system. The Fed's remediation requirements are basically ways to get regulators to take action early with "triggers," because regulators were slow to act in the last crisis. This is down to regulating the Fed, not the banks. As stated in recent editorials in the Journal, and supported by Daniel Tarullo at the Fed, the best way to protect the financial system is in having capital reserve requirements that are high enough and reliable enough for a crisis.

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US Senator Elizabeth Warren says the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank happened after president Trump signed a law with the help of Congress and the US central bank the Fed to roll back some of the strict oversight and regulations that were setup after the 2008 financial crisis from the failure of bank practices. The Guardian reports that the CEO of SVB lobbied to reduce the regulatory oversight needed leading to its collapse.

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The housing downturn as a result of sharply higher interest rates as the Fed's Jay Powell takes on surging inflation is very different from the problems of bank's shoddy mortgages of 2008. The 2008 financial crisis was a banking crisis from overleveraging by US banks and the use of questionable mortgages in housing. The rules set down and strict regulation since 2008 protect the housing market from the errors of 2008.

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The Seattle area, Bay area, Denver show slowing in rent and housing prices with improvement in affordability, increasing vacancies for rental housing. The housing and rental part makes an outsize part of the CPI index -35%. As prices of housing decline this has an effect on inflation. Fed chairman Powell says activity in the housing area has flattened out and remains well below levels in 2022. One reason Powell says he may cut interest rates next year.

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Kate Conger NYT looks at working for Google in 2007 vs 2025 how tech or software jobs are not exciting anymore. Many of the so called Tech companies -as technology and science is the very basis of life since the year 1700 in UK, Europe and the US and today's "Tech" is a misnomer in that context- have become huge bureaucratic, and unresponsive. Computer coding is not the profession it once was, not even in India as Indian reports show it has also lost it's glamour there. This kind of "Tech" of Google, Apple, and social media was always a cultural fad that made things look cool so that the highest profit margins could be made and justified, ignoring the essential facts about science and technology over 300 years 1700-2000 in the UK, Europe and the US. Since the early scientific observation in the 18th century in UK and Europe science has underpinned our lives, and with the industrial revolution and machines it has covered every aspect of our lives with new inventions and scientists into the 19th, 20th and 21st century. As a cultural fad of the Google /Apple kind it came on the back of the largest deindustrializing of US and Europe in the late 20th and 21st century, and ignored the fact that science and technological application is part of everyday life, the very meaning of the word modern that Japan, China and India has aspired to, to copy the Europeans and Americans, not the prerogative of any corporation.   ...

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These scathing remarks by Rob Mudge of DW.com about Angela Merkel as bringing change or modernization to Germay come as Germany votes on Sunday. He says of Merkel's CDU that its core base is over 65 years voters. Mudge says CDU should modernize itself first before attempting to modernize Germany as it says in its slogans around Germany. He says the constant eulogizing of Merkel in the media is pointless. CDU party he says is mired in Merkel's sedate weiter so (keep it up) politics. Most of CDU is staid and unadventurous at a time when Germany needs to move forward with new ideas and invest in its future. He faults the CDU, both Merkel and Laschet, with spreading meaningless fear mongering about the SPD and Greens, at a time when the SPD vice chancellor has devised most of the anti covid economic packages for Germany and the European Union. Social Democrats Olaf Scholz, as vice chancellor, brings the very stability Germans look for, with the efforts for modernization and bringing together all sections of society Germany desperately needs today. Annalena Baerbock of the Greens party brings youthful energy with a new openness to invest in Germany and the people of Germany. ...

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Controversy on abortion views for Ms. Brosius-Gersdorf, nominee to Constitutional Court Germany 2025. Brosius studied at the University of Hamburg in public law before doing her Masters degree in Law at University of Edinburgh in UK. After 4 years 2000-2004 pracicing law in Bonn and Berlin, she returned as research assistant to Harmut Bauer atTechnical University Dresden and University of Potsdam. In 2025 she was put forward by SPD in the Merz coalition govenment as nominee to succeed Doris Konig on the Constitutional Court of Germany. She says some in CDU distorted her views on abortion. Chancellor Merz offered his support for Brosius-Gersdorf on the highest Court.

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A provision in tax code letting companies expense investments in US including R&D in 5 years expired in 2022. For budget reasons it was not renewed. The DJT Big Beautiful Bill lets US companies expense R&D in 1 year compared to the 15 years in overseas investments. This is leading to a surge in R&D investment and hiring by companies. Fed's Powell sees this as one of the big positive factors for the US economy in 2025-2028.

The change lowers cost of hiring by 20-25% and this means more engineers and other people are going to be hired.

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Lael Brainard, Fed Vice Chair, is the new director of the US National Economic Council, which advises the president on economic policy and coordinates policy between executive branch agencies. The NEC director will now oversee the implementation of the infrastructure and semiconductor spending packages. WSJ says she may also have the task of managing the economic fallout from Ukraine because of her background growing up in west Germany and communist Poland as the daughter of an American diplomat.

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California says Arizona should cut back on its use of water. Arizona says it needs water for Pheonix and Tucson. About 80% of the water goes into agricultural use where there are ways to make it more efficient. The Interior Department suggests each state cut back use by the same percentage. Aridification in the region has caused concern about the levels of water in Lake Mead which is fed through the Hoover Dam by the Colorado river.

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It is a serious problem when big banks such as JP Morgan Chase offer 1-2% in interest on deposits when the Fed has increased market rates to above 5%. The average for all banks is only 0.73%. Consider that JP Morgan Chase made $14 billion in profit in 2022. This reduces the interest earned by the vast majority of average Americans who have savings at American banks and reduces their wealth further increasing inequality in the US.