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England goal keeper Mary Earps was third choice of coaches at the 2019 World Cup. After the Sweden game win 4-0 when Earps made some amazing saves including one from Sweden's Stina Blackstenius from an unstoppable angle she now looks back. Earps looks back at these years in the wilderness struggling to make it to the national team and working part time at business jobs. She was with Manchester United, and with Wolfsburg teams mostly in reserve roles.

She says she remembers many times thinking "this is the end of the international road game for me," when coaches passed her over for other players. She was top choice for Euro 22 only after another goal keeper had an injury. She says she is proud to be part of this England team. Her teammates have said some amazing things about her and she feels "I want to be the best I can be for them."

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This WSJ editorial looks beyond Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. It says for decades during which China modernized its economy with US investment and technology, Chinese policy remained peaceful reunification and no set date. The US under this agreement for peaceful reunification agreed that it would follow One China policy and not follow the earlier policy during the Cold War of close defense ties with Taiwan. Now it appears from Chinese policy under Xi Jinping that Chinese plans are for reunification of Taiwan by any means and with a date of the next decade or even in the next 18 months, says WSJ. This is a change of previous Chinese policy says WSJ and the US response should be to act with a change in its policy to provide Taiwan with the ability to defend itself during an invasion of the islands around Taiwan or other invasion.

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Extreme mismanagement of the economy led to the situation of currency notes of 100 trillion in Zimbabwe being issued by the central bank of this African country, unbelievable as it may sound. The situation has deteriorated over two decades. Before independence this country was called Southern Rhodesia run by a small community of white British settlers from the nineteenth century. After a independence war by a liberation front organization this country entered a new phase in which the mismanagement of the country's economy became a serious problem for all communities, in a nation of 15 million people which could attract tourists with diverse African habitats and Victoria Falls. It is an example of how the hopes of a generation  that experienced independence in 1980 in these parts of British East Africa have been waylaid by autocratic leaders and mismanagement. This region includes Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, Tanzania and Kenya. 

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Supporters of prime minister Netanyahu's judicial overhaul in Israel say there is an overreach by the Supreme Court and it has struck down laws passed in parliament. Opponents of the judicial overhaul say the changes would give the government control of a nine member committee that appoints Supreme Court judges. A simple majority of 61 would make it possible to override decisions of the Supreme Court. At the heart of this struggle is the vision of a secular and pluralist state from the time of its founding by Europeans opposed to a religious and nationalist Israel represented by Netanyahu.

The protests may have begun a new trend that in which parts of the religious right see that things have gone too far too fast for such changes. And the need for new ideas to get a better life for all Israelis without the constant elections and legal battles, the focus on cultural differences of the Netanyahu period.

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A tipping point happens when a small push can create a large outcome. Energy experts say we are at tipping points for renewable energy because cost of renewables solar and wind plants is now lower than fossil fuel new plants. Another tipping point is when new renewable energy plants have less cost than old fossil fuel plants. Another tipping point is when storage and production of renewables cost less than new fossil fuel plants. The first is already here and the second and third points are being reached in 2023 and 2024. Another tipping point is the confidence point and this is when it is no longer necessary to use fossil fuels because the costs are just too high. Once this is reached renewables are the first choice around the world. The world is now reaching this confidence point. Germany's Energy and Economy Minister Habeck says Germany will be 80% on renewable energy by 2030.

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Potash a potassium based fertilizer mined from the earth is environmentally friendly unlike nitrogen and phosporous based fertilizers. When Belarus and Russia which make 40% of world supply of potash could not supply the world market because of the war in Ukraine, Canadian producers which make 30% of potash stepped in to increase market share. Two Canadian producers will increase production to meet demand after a 28% increase in the price of potash. Potash has the added advantage of being good for the environment and for climate change action. The use of potash needs to double to meet climate change action goals. Nutrien, the world's largest producer of potash in Saskatchewan, Canada will increase production by 2026 from 15 million tons to 18 million tons a year. BHP has a new plant coming up in Saskatchewan in 2026 for 4.35 million metric tons of potash. 

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The ruble plunges from 83 to the dollar to 111 for its largest single day fall on record on Feb. 27, following the swift American and European response to the Ukraine invasion. The Bank of Russia raised interest rates to 20% from 9.5%. The situation is reminiscent of August 1998 when the government devalued the ruble and suspended payments on debts, leading to collapse of the banking system. That situation led to emergence of Mr. Putin as the Russian economy was stabilized in the years following the collapse. By acting quickly with sanctions on Russia's central bank and on its other banks the trade in the ruble has essentially seized. Russia this WSJ report says may default on its debt as it would not be able to use its $600 billion in foreign currency reserves to support the ruble or its banking system, pay off outstanding debt payments.

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A sense that president Putin may have seriously "miscalculated" the scale of Ukrainian resistance and that he may not be getting the right information from subordinates. The conflict does not appear to be in Russia's long term interest, making it weaker with western sanctions.

For EU the shift away from Russian oil supplies shifts to supplies from Qatar and other nations and use of LNG terminals. The US and EU will likely see a more effective shift to renewable energy after the Ukraine war. Increased funding for defense in US and EU and the funding for social goals with a wealth tax planned in the US.

China also sees an impact on its economy and long term growth with sharply reduced access to western technology and research, and restructuring of supply chains to be shorter and focus more on South and Southeast Asia, less on China.

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The trade agreement with Australia starts a process of taking India's exports far beyond the current figure of $400 billion and creating the jobs that come with it. It will double bilateral trade over 5 years to take it to $50 billion. This also shows the wisdom of India not joining the Comprehensive Economic Partnership pushed by president Obama.

The natural ties within the English speaking peoples and the common historical ties within the Commonwealth of Nations that include Australia, Canada, Britain, the Gulf Nations, and South East Asia provide a natural trade and economic region for India.  Next planned are trade agreements with Canada and Britain, and an effort to bring all the six nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council into and Economic Partnership with India, An agreement was also signed with the United Arab Emirates. Very important is a trade agreement with Germany and the European Union for close economic integration with Europe.

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At a joint press conference with French, Romanian and Moldovan foreign ministers German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announces 695 million euros of aid to Moldova as it deals with refugees from Ukraine. Out of about 4.2 million refugees that fled Ukraine 2.4 million went to Poland, and 1.8 million refugees to Romania, Moldova and Hungary. Moldova is one of the poorest countries in the region and is struggling to cope with the refugee influx which is the highest per capita refugees. "We have your back," Baerbock told the Moldovan prime minister Natalia Gavrilita. It's just the "kick off point for a long term continuous support platform for Moldova," said Baerbock. Gavrilita formally signed an application for accession of Moldova to the European Union shortly after the Russian invasion.

Moldova a country with 2.7 million people is dealing with an influx of 400,000 refugees. About 100,000 have decided to stay.

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Efforts to build air defense systems for Guam, American base 1300 miles east of the Philippines. China has stockpiled missiles that could reach Guam, says this report in the WSJ. There are 150,000 American civilians in Guam, which is an island the size of Chicago. As Guam is entirely American the US can operate from Guam in a manner that it cannot do from Okinawa or other bases in the Pacific, or in South Korea. About 50,000 Americans are based at Okinawa, Japan. US has 22,000 military personnel on Guam island. Guam played a critical role in the early days of the Pacific War with Japan and after it was retaken from the Japanese.

This is becoming important as the US faces the prospect of being able to help protect Taiwan's independence, and protect free navigation on seas in the Indo-Pacific region that extends from Africa to India and Australia and to western US.

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As the push for biodiversity increases the idea of passive rewilding or letting nature and its chaotic way take its course is getting increased acceptance. It allows natural processes to restore themselves and do the work. A certain amount of chaos is accepted as forests reclaim territory, different species come back and fires, floods return. This is seen in the Peneda-Geres National Park in the northern mountains of Portugal. Here Mr. Pereira at the University of Leipzig Center for Biodiversity Research says it is about letting wildlife return, letting fires, floods return and most importantly letting plants and animals move around.

The issues of biodiversity and restoring landscapes to the ways of nature are the topic of discussion at the UN COP 15 summit this week in Kunming, China. Pereira's idea is that if you love something, just set it free, for a biodiversity setting to take shape.

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Kernza is a new kind of grain from wheatgrass that is environmentally friendly being tried out by Kansas farmers in the US. A single seed of Kernza grain grows into a plant that provides grain year after year without the need for costly fertilizer, more water and energy. It forms deep roots that store carbon, and grows alongside other crops and provides wildlife habitat.  In this report from Washington Post an artisan baking company is shown baking Kernza and wheat grains bread.

Climate change makes Kansas summers much hotter and drier, and makes rainstorms more intensive, says this report. Land Institute ecologists say traditional farming is carbon intensive and alternatives are needed. Kansas had some of the richest soil in America say ecologists, but it is being degraded at a rapid rate. As America's breadbasket state a lot needs to be done to enrich and restore Kansas agricultural land.

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Costs of climate change include food insecurity and drought, floods and fires. FR24 pictures show 10 figures from the 2021 Report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for humanity.

Shorter growing seasons lead to declines of 6% for corn and soy, and winter wheat 3%, rice 2% relative to 1980-2010.  2 billion people face food insecurity. Costs from extreme weather events in 2020 was $278 billion. 4 million deaths attributable to air pollution in 2019.

Drought leads to migration in Africa and Asia as crops and cattle wither in the heat from lack of rain. The estimated share of global surface area affected by extreme drought for any given month in 2020 is a shocking 19% according to this FR24 report. Also shocking is that until 2010 this figure was rarely above 5%.

 

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This report in The Guardian says what India urgently needs is for the US to lift export restrictions on supplies for India's vaccine factories, and tools such as genome sequencing to identify and control emerging variants of the coronavirus.

The report also points out that of the 1 billion vaccine jabs about half are in the US and Europe and the low income countries have only a tiny fraction of vaccinations. India which sent 64 million vaccine doses to countries including Brazil and Morocco, Bangladesh, in 3 months prior is reported to have sent only 1.2 million doses this month.

The crisis in India also shows the need says The Guardian for an international approach to the crisis no a country by country approach. It says the Bush plan for Aids and the the 2014 plan for Ebola in West Africa are models of an international approach that is needed now.

 

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Prime minister Boris Johnson outlines his plans for 2021 in the Queens Speech in May 2021. Johnson pledges to seize the opportunity coming from the "extraordinary spirit" with which the British people had faced the corona virus pandemic. He called it "an historic opportunity to change things for the better, level up opportunities across the whole of the UK and address the whole of the problems that have constrained us far too often before." By this he said  he referred to the deep wells of kindness, ingenuity and resourcefulness that exist in each village, town and city in the UK. The government's task will be to unleash that potential.

Jeremy Hunt, a Tory MP and former Health Secretary said that the government needed to address the problem of social care and the catastrophically high care costs that are hitting one family in ten in the United Kingdom.

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The American saving rate is up to 7.8% after dropping to 3.2% by 2009 and the financial crisis. This is a good thing as Americans save for retirement and avoid extravagant expenses to build a safety net. The collapse of traditional pensions means much of the burden for retirement falls on individual families. The student debt burden means families share in high education costs, and the lack of a cost efficient health system means more money is needed for health expenses than in other advanced European countries. The savings rate is still nowhere near what it used to be in the 1970's. 

Higher savings also builds up the funds that are in banks as savings that can be a pool of funds for use in building national infrastructure and other value adding investments for the country. China has used a high savings rate and savings pool of funds for its extensive infrastructure investments that modernized the country.

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The mysterious activities and losses of a South Korean/Japanese venture capital company Softbank which has been part of the massive misallocation of capital away from infrastructure and health care services during the decades before the pandemic. It has emerged recently as the mystery investor in options on tech shares that led to shares losses of 7 billion pounds for Softbank.

It lost half of its value in an earlier dotcom crash. A few investments in China during the early period of its development based on gut feel of the founder, including Alibaba an e-commerce company based on Amazon's success in the U.S. and other investments in China, is the basis of its business model. This model puts huge amounts of U.S. and foreign capital with estimated pool of capital at $100 billion into ventures that set the wrong priorities for investment- leading to misallocation of capital at this time of the pandemic. 

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While attention is placed on Brazil for coronavirus, neighboring Argentina has an economic crisis with debt of $324 billion, reaching 90% of GDP. The new Peronist party government in Argentina is supported by the IMF in negotiations with creditors, as it faces the coronavirus and needs to free up resources from debt payments to tackle the crisis. Its proposal to Ad Hoc group of creditors including investment funds Black Rock and Fidelity is for a three year grace period on debt payments, 62% reduction of interest  amounting to $37 billion, and 5% reduction of capital or $3.6 billion. Earlier governments mishandled the economy leading to overborrowing on an unsustainable basis. Argentina has defaulted on debt 20 times in its history. The last being in 2001 with debt of $100 billion. The pattern of overborrowing and mismanagement by administrations modeled on free market economies has continued. Lenders, borrowers, and the government have not acted prudently knowing this history. ...

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AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria says it is critical to do three things to prevent a possible third wave from becoming a serious threat in India. The three steps are- to adopt covid appropriate behaviours such as mask wearing, social distancing and washing hands and to not fall into the habit of thinking that the virus has gone away when it is spreading and developing into new mutations. To do testing, tracing and micro containment zones quickly to isolate infection prone areas and prevent transmission. Gene sequencing analysis would enable understanding variants quickly to respond. And to vaccinate rapidly the entire Indian population, a program which is being tackled by the federal government.

These tasks are critical also to let the economy recover and let all segments of society recover soon from the pandemic. It is through mutual responsibility and fulfilling one's duty by every citizen that this becomes possible.

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Key points from the prime minister's Independence Day speech on August 15, 2021, as reported in The Times of India. 

The prime minister concluded by saying that 25 years from now on the 100th anniversary in 2047 the aspirations of today will be presented as accomplishments by the then prime minister. He covered many topics relating to goals for India in the next 25 years, from the environment, small farmers, and infrastructure to hydrogen and renewable energy. The thread running through the entire speech was the aspirations of the Indian people, and of Indian youth, that are irreversibly set and that nothing could stop the Indian people from achieving these aspirations with the goals set high for the first time in 50 years. The impossible had to become the reality with hard work and calm, good humored resolve, not affected by the difficulties on the way.

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Six years after the VW diesel emissions scandal was uncovered in September 2015 by the California clean air agency, CARB, perceptions have changed in Germany. This report says the charges leveled against the defendants including former CEO include organized commercial fraud and tax evasion. The grounds for this are that thousands of former VW customers were able to claim tax credits in Germany for the vehicle misstated low emissions levels. In Germany organized fraud is subject to up to 10 years in jail. German experts cited here say it is very unlikely that higher management were no aware of the effort to distort emissions results. 

Much has changed in Germany since then. The auto industry has shifted away from diesel to electric cars. German federal government no longer sees Germany's auto industry in the same way that it did in the early years under Merkel.

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Speaker Johnson tells Politico that he plans to take up Ukraine aid in a separate bill. It would  be one Ukraine aid only bill or combined with Israel aid. He said it would happen using the House's suspension calendar. He sees it coming up on Ukraine aid on a stand alone basis. Suspension calendar requires a two thirds majority to pass bills and this means a large number of Democratic votes. Separating Israel and Ukraine aid is under consideration. The Freedom Caucus and some Republicans are not favoring bringing up the Ukraine aid bill. A government funding bill comes to the floor of Congress next week. Johnson says of the raucous Freedom Caucus that he has been always philosophically aligned with it with the same core principles as a lifelong movement conservative.The only difference is in tactics, and its never personal, Johnson says.

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A problem for Tesla is that it has no response for competition from German, Japanese or South Korean imports of EV vehicles. Its last new model was in 2020 a cybertruck priced at $85000 and the next new car model is slated for 2026, says this NYT report. Tesla models are priced at $45,000 as competitors from Asia are cutting costs and prices rapidly. Competitors BYD, VW and BMW, Kia, plan to introduce new models much faster. BYD has its own battery technology and makes its own batteries, so that it can cut cost. The result in the first quarter 2024 Tesla sales declined to 387,000 from 423,000 in 2023, BYD's increased by 13% to 300,000, with an additional 324,000 hybrid cars up 15%. Consumer Reports says the controls are all from the screen make a Tesla harder to drive as other cars have switches and other controls. 

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The Biden administration is the first administration in decades to do this to protect American industry and industry of other manufacturing capable nations such as India, in effect protecting a whole new supply chain that allows all to participate but non to dominate unfairly. The Bush, Trump, Obama administrations failed to do this. A concern most economists and many business leaders fail to understand to the great misfortune of America's workers and communities and workers and communities in other nations. As the US restricted flow of technologies in advanced chips to China to protect its tecnologies, China is investing $40 billion in mature chips. The Biden administration is now shifting its attention to mature chips technologies to protect American chip industry and prevent overproduction of mature chips in China for export leading to dumping of the product in the US and hitting the domestic chip industry hard.