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This editorial in the NYT says Bill Clinton moved the Democratic Party to the centre in 1992. In 2016 about 25 years later, after the removal of the Glass Steagall Act led to the 2008 global financial crisis and a deep recession, after the trade relations with China led to loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs over two decades and the hollowing out of industry in the midwest, things have changed. The revolution led by Bernie Sanders, a shrinking middle class, smaller access to college education for the middle and working class, and wide disparities in income, are putting the Democratic Party closer to its roots and the days of FDR. The Democratic Party platform calls for a 21st century Glass Steagall Act to separate normal banking from investment banking, opposes the TPP to prevent any further export of jobs overseas, and goes for a $15 minimum wage. This was also evident at the opening day of the Democratic National Convention when Sanders told the gathering in Philadelphia that even though he was not the candidate, these are the planks of the platform that Hillary Clinton will be pushing for in her presidency. What the editorial does not point out is that the Republican economic platform also calls for reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act, opposes TPP and opposes any loss of American jobs to overseas locations. It differs on the minimum wage leaving it to the states, and it is likely to skew tax cuts towards the wealthy, but also possibly removing the lower income brackets from taxes as Britain has done under the Conservative Party. Both parties today are looking for support from the middle and working class and have directed their appeal to these two groups which are in upheaval. The election of Trudeau in Canada recently also followed this trend, after the hollowing out of Canadian industry in Ontario and Quebec in a similiar pattern as in the midwestern U.S.  ...

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Results in the Saarland election show the AfD party with only 6.2% of the vote. The CDU is well ahead of the Social Democrats. This result shows that the support for the AfD is strongest in the east. With the refugee crisis not as big an issue as it was in 2016, and the larger effort put forward in push back by CDU/CSU and SPD in the western part of Germany, the AfD sees its support declining from the levels it had in 2016.

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The resilience of Indian democracy shows in the fourth phase of the election with 70% election voter turnout for parliament. The Election Commission says 67% over all four phases with the current heat wave 45-50 degrees centigrade. 150 million more voters over 18 years will vote this time in 2024 compared to 2019. 978 million people or 70% of the population eligible to vote. And 5.5 electronic voting machines, 1 million polling stations, 15 million election workers and security personnel. Compare this to the elections for European parliament with voter turnout in 2014 of 42%, in 2019 of 51%, and expected increase in June 6-9  election to 61%. Total seats are 720 compared to 543 in India. There are 3 debates, in Maastrict, Netherlands and Brussels, Belgium, in May the last in English. With Ursula Von Der Leyen of CDU heading European People's Party, Zimmerman of Renew and Nicholas Schmit for Party of European Socialists and others. EPP met in Bucharest, Romania, PES in Florence, Italy in March, Greens in Lyon, France. Issues in EU Climate change, Security policy, Economy, Migration and Borders. In India issues are Vikshit Bharat 2047 modernization effort, State governance leakage of funds intended for development, Security, Backward Caste development. ...

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Rebecca Solnit says the Biden administration has governed very well over the last three years, the Washington Post, NYT, WSJ are showing poor judgement and lack of civic duty in not considering what the two alternative visions of America are today as offered by the candidates in the 2024 election. On climate change alone the differences are vast and if nothing is done the results will be catastrophic with increasing risks of extreme heat, floods and other catastrophes. Because of this and all the work being done under Biden's leadership in manufacturing in America, in rebuilding its infrastructure, and in building leadership in science and chips, the Washington Post, the NYT, WSJ, and the television media have shown an extraordinary degree of incompetence. The Washington Post had a sample of its readers responses which we show today in Lyrarc. Of 5 letters from all parts of the country only one stated the Post's position, the rest all 4 wholeheartedly supported Biden and his overall record, his vision and competent administration. This itself shows that the president has the support of the American people and the Media has the lowest ratings in its entire history somewhere in the 20% level where it has languished for the last two decades as we pointed out in Movement for Global Literacy. ...

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Even though immigration makes the headlines for the average German and daily German life polls and surveys show says the NYT that the main concerns center around a failing economy. For 5 years Germany has experienced little growth. According to Eurostat, Germany's GDP growth rate is 2023 -0.2% 2022: 1.37% 2021: 3.67% 2020 -4.1% Tankersley and Eddy report from Lutherstadt Wittenberg Eastern Germany. As Germany's economy slows companies may move jobs and manufacturing to Austria and France says one CEO of a company that makes fertilizer and additives for diesel motors. This could lead to loss of 10,000 jobs in an already depressed region. The problems faced buy German industry are increasing with higher costs of energy- even after prices have come down energy is 20% costlier than the European average according to Eurostat. Industry leaders say this is the result partly of efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions. Increasing competition from China means Germany cannot compete as before. Investment in public infrastructure has not kept up with crumbling roads and bridges and a rail system with underinvestment and plagued with delays. Investment in digital technology has lagged behind China, India and France.   ...

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Community Aging in Place: Advancing Better Living for Elders, has been here since 2009, it is offered in about 65 places across 26 states. in the US. It helps people 60 and up stay in their homes such as Chikao Tsubaki 87 years shown here in the Washington Post. It brings a repair worker into the home to figure out how to make it safer for falls, in addition to an occupational therapist and a nurse. Center for Disease Control and Prevention says these falls contribute to deaths of 41,000 older Americans each year and cost Medicare $50 billion. Yet this report in The Washington Post shows Medicare does not cover it, and most private insurance plans do not grasp the idea of keeping people healthy in good settings, paying only when people fall, doing little to prevent the falls. Sarah Szanton is a nurse practitioner who worked with older Americans in home settings in West Baltimore and started CAPABLE in 2009, and is now Dean of the John Hopkins University School of Nursing. In it the client and care team work together to do problem solving and brainstorming. One study shows $20,000 in savings a year for Medicare continuing for 2 years person after one CAPABLE intervention. ...

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Car insurance and tariffs on Mexico made auto parts would take a 2 year lag in inflationary impact, says this report in WSJ. Insurance companies will wait to see the impact and how long the tariffs are in place. Tariffs are put in place to stop fentanyl flows through Canada, Mexico and China to the US, which have cost 490,000 deaths in the US over the last 12 years. Canada now fully supports the US for action to be taken and cites similar loss of lives in Canada from fentanyl comparable to the US for its smaller population. Much of the focus on tariffs is seen as economic action in the media, when as Commerce Secretary Luttnick pointed out it is being used as an instrument to get immediate action from countries that have not acted to stop the flow of fentanyl -action they should have done taken many years back. DJT's action is to protect average Americans, communities across the US that have lost their manufacturing base to Mexico and China, and are being hit by the flows of fentanyl across borders for over a decade now. Never in American history has this kind of flow across borders happened since the first settlers came to America in 1600. ...

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Geert Wilders says he he is withdrawing support of his party PPV which won 23% of the vote in the last election from the Dutch coalition government because his 10 point plan for immigration was not being implemented. It calls for border closures for asylum seekers, deporting dual nationals who have committed a crime, and the military controlling Dutch borders. Wilders says "no more asylum centers. Close them." Germany is putting through strict immigration laws under the CDU leadership of chancellor Merz including control of borders, border checks, deporting dual nationals who have committed a crime.  This policy is being followed by the DJT administration in the US. There is little public patience with migrants after the experience in the US and Europe. What has changed is that centrist parties, Catholic/Protestant centrist parties such as CDU/CSU in Germany or business centrist parties such as Republicans are partnering with socialist parties such as Social Democrats in Germany, and many Democrats in the US with the clear goal of controlling borders. In the UK and in Denmark socialist parties such as Starmer's Labor in UK and Mette Frederiksen's Social Democrats in Denmark have clear goals to strictly close borders and send back migrants to home countries. ...

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“Getting gas from America is always a good thing.” Alaska's governor Dunleavy tells Japanese and South Korean, Taiwanese investors. Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba says the LNG from Alaska is "wonderful for us." It takes just 7 days to get this LNG to South Korea or Japan.  Mike Dunleavy's plan, called Alaska LNG, is for a 800-mile pipeline from Prudhoe Bay that would feed gas to a to be built liquefied natural gas terminal at Nikiski near Anchorage. What was once just a hope as investors pulled out is now a reality with DJT telling Dunleavy, "lets get it done, let's not just talk about it." Note that something similar is likely to happen for car investments by Japanese and South Korean companies. Already Hyundia Kia has announced a $21 billion investment. For Alaska LNG pipeline South Korea has said this has "infinite possibilities for growth." US Navy is rebuilding for protecting the Asia-Pacific, Japan and South Korea know the importance of the actions of the new Republican administration for Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region, and tariffs can be a time to invest more in American manufacturing and show restraint in pricing. ...

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How reckless actions that ignored public sentiment on illegal migrants have led to a surge in Germany and the US of foreign born populations, It jumped in Germany from 7.5% in 1990 to 21% by 2025 and in the US from 10% in 1990 to to 16%  in 2025. This means as shown by NYT graphs the US went up by 60% and Germany went up by a shocking 300%. This is why young Germans voted for the AfD. Merz's CDU has rejected Merkel policies and has imposed a series of actions to put in border controls, stop migrants.  Putting such stress on working class communities is an affront to people when they face crime as has happened in recent years, and when cost of living issues, covid pandemic have already caused much stress. Here the NYT reverses its position on migration and speaks of the dangers of such migration, the stress on woking class communities where migrants settle, on the public services and resources stretched to their limit. It now says Merkel made a huge mistake and ignored public sentiment leading to the situation where extreme opinions endanger democracy and young people in Germany prefer the AfD to the CDU and SPD, or the Greens. ...

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WSJ Editorial Board on 2025 DJT version of Eisenhower's 1954 Operation Wetback to curb foreign born employment. After the Biden years when foreign born employment surged the decrease by 773,000 shown by Trend Macro in foreign born employment for Jan- April 2025 in the WSJ, is an adjustment from the effects of Biden open border policies. This also prevents downward pressure on wages for American workers in construction, hospitality and retail- the story of the last 20 years. This is similar to what would have been seen in the Eisenhower years after Operation Wetback led by Gen. Swing and AG Brownell in 1954. Just as by 1956 the foreign born employment declined after years of uninhibited illegal migrant growth and open borders in the years of World War II. Note that Mexico's agribusiness owners were against open borders in that period and the Mexican government was also against open borders and the loss of labor from Mexico needed in agribusiness. Today the situation is somewhat different but in the sense of an adjustment it may be very similar. Just as in 1956 Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 had a mandate for making this adjustment DJT has won a mandate for a similar adjustment in 2024. ...

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Michael Gerson of the Washington Post reflects on billionaire property developer Donald Trump's campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. He says Trump's temperament could make or break his campaign, citing the disparaging remarks made by Trump when Megyn Kelly brought up the issue of denigrating women to Trump in a presidential debate. Roger Ailes, head of Fox News, and Rupert Murdoch head of the parent company, refused to disqualify Kelly from the seventh debate on Jan. 28, 2016, as Trump had insisted on for his participation. Gerson cites a little incident at a Pensacola, Florida Trump rally, with a microphone malfunctioning Trump uses strong language, according to Gerson. He compares this with a similar situation when he was with George Bush in the family theater practicing his first address to Congress, where he apologized to a teleprompter assisting him for being blunt and walking out. Gerson says it is time to take a deep breath and reflect on where we are today after many weeks of a campaign where the public discourse has deteriorated in unimaginable ways....

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This editorial in the WSJ points out that U.S. president Obama made economic inequality "the defining challenge of our time" in his State of the Union address in 2013, yet the U.S. has seen widening economic and social disparities in his two terms- creating the situation where Bernie Sanders is now in a virtual tie in Iowa with Hillary Clinton. It says Hillary Clinton wins handily over Sanders on three of four issues of the most concern for Democratic caucus voters in pre-entrance polls, healthcare, terrorism, and on the important issue of jobs and economy by 51% to 42%. Where she falls behind is on the issue of income inequality, and by a very wide margin reflecting voter disillusionment with policies that resulted in marginalization of some workers through globalization and long term unemloyment, and reduced access to education with high tution costs- there Sanders wins by 61% to 34%. Federal Reserve policies that kept rates low near zero hurt middle class savers, working class savers, and benefitted disproportionately upper class investors in the stock market, widening the social and economic disparities....

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Donald Trump remains far behind Hillary Clinton in preparation for a general election in fall 2016, and behind where Mitt Romney was at this stage of the campaign in 2012. Part of the problem is his unconventional campaign based on personality and minimal grassroots structure, which is only now being organized with field offices, large staff, and campaign experts, getting a late start, and the campaign supporters not accepting the change. Trump has about $36 million from his personal finances, and $11 million raised from donations. Hillary Clinton has spent $26 million on 1100 organization staffers and firms providing digital, strategy, and voter data services, compared to $7 million spent by Trump for 200 staffers through March 2016, and Romney's $17 million spent at this point in the campaign. Romney advisor Stevens is skeptical about the Trump capabilities for the campaign that is expected. A NYT report says a Hillary super PAC is already preparing its advertising strategy and booking television time for $125 million in April 2016....

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WSJ's Chuin-Wei Yap provides a glimpse of life in Chengdu with the closing of the Panchenggang steel factory. The Chengdu Iron and Steel factory was started in 1958 under Mao's effort at industrialization. The city depended on the huge steel complex for jobs as generation after generation worked at the same factory. The factory was closed in 2015. Mr. Deng is a laid off worker who gets $24,000 in buyout following 26 years at the plant, and 1500 yuan or about $235 month for 2 years of unemployment benefits with required retraining classes. Economic uncertainty is faced by many laid off workers, worrying about children's college education, spouses doing odd jobs, including a pedicab run by Mr. Deng's wife. About 2 million workers in China work in steel factories, with production having reached extremely high level of overcapacity of 800 million tons. With the plant gone, the local hospital Panchenggang District Hospital, is restructured and bought by a private company, 115 doctors and other staff are offered buyouts....

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This WSJ editorial is pessimistic about the prospects for Abenomics without the actions needed for structural economic reform. Japan is in a recession after two successive quarters of declining growth by the end of 2015. It gives credit to prime minister Abe for encouraging companies to add more independent directors to the boards and pushing for improving corporate governance, but finds other actions lacking. The low unemployment rate is seen as concealing the problem of two tier labor market with most of the recent job growth coming from temporary workers, and the total number of worked hours actually declining. The 30% decline in the yen has not boosted the economy as much as expected because it also means decline in consumer spending power, and Japanese companies continue to move jobs overseas. It cites a Nikkei poll showing only 25% of the Japanese public now see Abenomics as improving the condition of the economy. The declining growth in China is also playing a part in slowing growth in Japan, adding more headwinds for Abenomics in 2016....

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Only 5.8 billion of the $39 billion in the stimulus package of $787 billion assigned to the Department of Energy for creating jobs in the field of "green" energy has been allocated as of June 19th. THe Department of Energy is structurally still making the shift o its new role as funder of green energy projects for energyefficiency and green fuels. It was understaffed as an agency with abudget of $26 billion. With the additional $39 billion a lot has to catch up for it to meet its new role. Besides awarding new contracts and grants the Department of Energy has pre-existing loan guarantee and direct loan programmes for energy projects that are boosted by stimulus money. And as this was moving very slowly, taking 3 months just to appoint an analyst to to look at an application, the staff for this is being boosted from 35 to 95. Because of the shortage of people the Department has asked Universities and trade associations for help for volunteer experts to look at loan applications. About 2000 experts have offered their help....

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Mnay people who have engineering degrees and jobs which pay 60,000 to $75,000 in the auto companies are now visiting food banks as they exhaust their unemployment benefits. They live in suburbs of Detroit, in Rochester Hills, in Dearborn Heights, in Taylor and so on. THe unemployment rate has reached 14.1% and there are more layoffs ahead. THis is also affecting the health care business as companies cut benefits. By the end of of 2009 100,000 residents will have lost their benefits, according to the state's unemployment insurance agency. THe US Department of Agriculture provides 20% of the food aid in the state to food banks and is watching the situation closely. In May, the caseload of the Michigan Food Assistance Program, which adminsters the USDA's food stamp aid for the state rose to 719,000 households, up 3.1% in April and nearly triple the figure in 2000. THe USDA has doubled its shipments to Gleaners, a food bank, which says it is stretched, as it does not serve the once affluent suburbs....

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The plant in Tychy, Poland where Fiat turns out 500,000 small cars a year, one every 55 seconds. Chrysler engineers are now visiting this plant to see what can be done with small car production. The Fiat 500 is turned out here. Its Fiat's best effort in terms of quality. Zdzislaw Arlet, is director of the Tychy (pronounced TICK-ee) plant. He says the right combination of robots to individual workers was critical to achieve efficiencies and to have the flexibility to switch to different Fiat small car models depending on which is selling more. This enables the Tichy plant to operate round the clock six days a week. About three years ago workers were assigned an individual ID that is stamped on the sections of the car that they assemble so any problems at the end of the line can be traced to the source. As a result of these efforts defects have fallen from 20% in 1996 to just 4% now, and the time to have a car roll out of the assembly line has been halved.

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The House Energy and Commerce Committee passes ahealthcare plan with 31 to 28 vote. The Senate version takes adifferent approach. The Senate version has moved away from the employer requirements in the House bills. The Senate committee is moving towards aproposal to require employers to contribute if their workers are getting government assisted insurance coverage. It has also moved away from the surtax on the wealthy in the House bills which is expected to raise $500 billion. Instead the Senate version proposes an excise tax on insurers for health plans that offer generous benefits. Under the current bill being considered in the Senate such a insurance policy tax could raise $180 billion. The Senate Finance Committee is also different in that instead of the public insurance option it offers nonprofit health insurance cooperatives as an alternative. There is agreement between the two parties on anumber of things so the debate will center on the public insurance option, surtax on the wealthy to pay for the plan, and the requirement for an employer mandated coverage for all employees....

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Ford executes new strategy for reaching the younger first time buyers of small cars in India. The car is a hatchback called the Figo designed with the help of Indian engineers for the Indian and overseas markets. It has done a$500 million expansion of its plant in Chennai, India, doubling production to 200,000 vehicles ayear, and 250,000 diesel engines a year by 2010. Mullaly says: "literally India is designing the small car for the world." Separately Ford is building a new car plant in Chongquing, China, for 300,000 cars, midsize and suv's. The change is huge and dramatic for car production. CSM Worldwide predicts car sales in India 45% higher in 2011 compared to 2007, and 39% growth in China, 26% in Brazil. In contrast, car sales in North Americaand Europe will not have returned to 2007 levels by 2011. Considering declining levels in Japan and Germany sales may be on a slow downturn. See links to this. For instance Ford predits Ford's production in North America will decline to 35% of global production by 2015 from 54% in 1997. ...

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Investing strategy that is in contrast to PIMCO's Gross and El-Erian view that we are entering aperiod which is the "new normal"- aperiod of diminished expectations with stocks playing a smaller role. This means that investors hold as little as 30% in stocks. Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ, a quantitative research firm says he sees this recession as similiar to the 1973-74 recession and sees growth picking up by 2013, or 5 years into this one. Ritholtz thinks its wise to have larger investmetns in fixed income and similar investments, but also to have exposure to stocks in growth areas of the world. Robert Arnott of Research Afiliates, aresearch and analytics firm, suggests a mix of five even baskets: Us stocks paying healthy dividends, stocks and bonds from mature foreign economies, stocks and bonds from emerging markets, stocks and bonds built around oil and commodities to hedge against inflation, and 20% in bonds. including Treasury inflation-protected securities. Such aweighting would increase stocks as apercentage of the portfolio to 50%....

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Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, did economic and monetary research at the University of Siegen, Germany, where he received his doctorate. He joined the economics faculty at the University of Bonn in 1994. This is unlike others in central banking who rose through finance ministries or national central banks. He was made head of the Bundesbank in 2004. He resigned recently after expressing his dissent when the ECB made the decision to buy the government bonds of Greece and other financially troubled eurozone countries. In his view the ECB should stick to its mandate for setting monetary policy and not get involved in fiscal policy. He returned to academia and will teach central banking at the University of Chicago till May 2012. He brings an unconventional approach by his willingness to talk to the media and express his dissent over issues that affect Europe and the global financial system. The same informal style he adopted in teaching and engaging in discussion at the University of Bonn. See the interview in the Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2011....