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Experts at Moody's say that a partial deal with China like the phase 1 deal Mr. Trump announced this week will leave unresolved the fundamental differences in the two countries' economic, political and strategic interests. Mr. Trump suspended a new tariff on Chinese imports set to go into effect in December on mobile phones, laptops and the remaining import products not yet covered by tariffs. Any improvements in relations is seen only as temporary. In the agriculture sector most farmers are taking a cautious attitude. Importers of products such as luggage and other basic consumer products are living with the uncertainty- product quality may deteriorate now that importers cannot pass on a 25% tariff cost.

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The prospects for direct U.S. talks with the Taliban after the planned opening of a Taliban office in Qatar. The preliminary efforts were started by U.S. special envoy for S. Asia, Richard Holbrooke. Holbrooke died in 2010, and his successor, Marc Grossman, a former ambassador to Turkey, has continued the efforts as senior representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Grossman now has a team of officials from the Defense Department, the State Department and Intelligence agencies working with him. After a decade of war, a shift in public opinion in the U.S. to domestic issues, and a withdrawal date by the international forces set for 2014, the time appears right for the negotiations that would end this war. Grossman has the backing of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in this push for a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. The recent deterioration of U.S. relations in Pakistan to a breaking point, the complex relationship between the Taliban and the Pakistan military, the growing unpopularity of the U.S. in Pakistan, the meaningless struggle with a Taliban with intrinsic links in the Pakistan military, and the fragility of the elected government in the country are other factors that may be leading the U.S. government to look at the bigger picture and grasp any opportunities towards a negotiated settlement. ...

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More than half of the money in the $1.9 trillion aid package that was passed in the US Congress will go to people who need it most, the unemployed, the poor and struggling Americans on low incomes. The pandemic hit this group very hard. US president Biden has taken on a new role of supporting the poor, not just the working class as he has done with his roots in a working class district in Delaware. Biden says the aid will give the working class and struggling Americans "a fighting chance."

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GDP expanded at 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Turkey Statistics Office. This follows a contraction by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016. For the full year the GDP growth is 2.9 percent, a decline from the 6.1% in 2015. In 2015 Turkey gained from lower oil prices. This was offset in 2016 by the politics in the region- the increased instability in the country following a crackdown on the opposition and media, internal conflict in the Kurdish region which appeared for a time to be leading to peaceful settlement. As a result tourism revenues declined by 30% and this was offset by increased government spending. The uncertainty before the referendum also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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Paul Tough's detailed and vivid account of the problems in Chicago's South Side in 1987 when Obama worked there as acommunity activist, in 2007 when Obama visited the area and expressed his vision about what was needed for the Roseland section, and in 2012 when Tough visits Roseland to document life today in this part of Chicago. He sees the same problems and a need for an all round approach to help kids of parents without work living below the poverty line to provide not just financial help but the kind of support and institutional help that would help them overcome the disabling effects of growing up in broken homes and counteract the destructive effects of a poor environment surrounding them. He left Roseland with a feeling that the President has not pushed hard to accomplish much of what he started out to do and let opportunities slip by.

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Crime by violent street gangs with whole sections of cities controlled by different groups, some a remnant of the guerilla wars, has fueled the migration crisis. Many people have left central American countries of San Salvador, Costa RIca, Guatemala, because of the crime and extortion experienced and the lack of law and order in these countries. Criminal violence by these gangs hurts business which leads to even fewer economic opportunities for young people. This leads to a steady flow of migrants to the borders of Mexico trying to enter the U.S. Experts say 95% of homicides in these central American countries are not tackled, with severe distrust of police.  There are fewer emigrants from Mexico as the economy has improved and population growth has slowed. Most of the faces of migrants are now from the Central American countries. A program is underway to create jobs skills in Honduras. But this a small effort in tackling a much bigger problem of violence, lack of economic opportunity, and the legacy of the civil wars in central America in an earlier period that have left whole sections of urban areas under control of former guerillas and militia turned into gangs.  ...

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Reagan words taken out of historical context by Ontario ad- Lighthizer as Reagan's USTR negotiating with Japan experienced Japan's efforts to unfairly capture world markets. It was only after years of negotiation that Lighthizer was able to get Japan to play by fair rules of world trade. In 2025 Jamieson as US Trade Representative for the US is Lighthizer's deputy in prior negotiations with Asian trade partners who have unfairly gamed the system to their advantage. Canada, Mexico and China are misrepresenting the facts to show they play by the rules when they clearly and blatantly flout world fair trading practices that lead to losses for American workers. The reality is that the Smoot Hawley tariffs by the senators of states that were not industrial states in the US inthe 1930's were adopted by the reckless atitude of Herbert Hoover as president and by senators who had no grasp of world trade. Senator Harry Truman from Missouri as president made correcting these mistakes a top priority in the late 1940's. Today's abuse of the system by Asian countries and Canada, Mexico have nothing to do with the tariffs of the 1930's- America wants all nations to play by the rules which over time will create a stronger world trading system. ...

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Sweden gets a centre left government led by Stefan Lofven, who gets a second term in office. He managed to put together an alliance of centre left parties with the Green Party and Liberal paties after the elections gave 40% of the vote to centre left and centre right and proved inconclusive. Lofven governs without a majority in parliament because the minority government has support form other parties with 77 votes in parliament that abstained. Both centre right and centre left did not want to join with the far right anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. Lofven says Sweden chose a different path than other governments that sought to form governments with anti-immigrant parties. He said "in Sweden we stand up for democracy, for equality. Sweden has chosen a different path." To get Centre and Liberal parties support Lofven promised to cut taxes, reform the rental housing market, and relax strict employment laws.

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Farming vegetables causes less greenhouse than livestock production. Climate experts say people should eat more vegetables for better health and for slowing greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change.

Consider that studies show farming and other land use account for about a fourth of all greenhouse gas emissions, and about half of methane gas emissions are released into the atmosphere from cattle and rice fields. Meat in particular has more greenhouse gas emissions. 

Climate experts say the nutritional value of wheat grown in higher CO2 areas is 6% to 13% less for protein, and 5% to 8% less for iron. Another problem aggravating the situation is that drought has grown 1% a year between 1961 and 2013, IPCC researchers have found. This is a result of the growing climate change issues. Drought and nutrition is a major problem in India and Africa.

 

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A call for immigrant friendly policies in the Republican party in this WSJ editorial. It shows immigrants are not looking for a handout and immigration today is net zero from Mexico.

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China is closing energy inefficient aging factories. The Chinese government plans to close 76 factories in cement, 279 in paper, 175 in steel, and 84 in leather as part of this effort. This still leaves China with a lot of work to do to acheve the 20% reduction per unit of economic output in 2010 compared to 2005, that its current five year plan calls for. Efficiency went up by 14.4% in the first four years of the current plan, but went down by 3.6% in the first quarter causing serious concern.

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UAE second Fujairah pipeline for completion by 2027 to double capacity from 1.6 million b/d to 3.2 million b/d. This pipeline was intended to bypass the shipping route with tankers through Straits Hormuz by taking it directly to the Gulf of Oman by pipeline. The Saudis have a similar pipeline at Yanbu to bypass the Straits Hormuz by taking it to the Red Sea.

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U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke, says the Fed will keep interest rates low till unemployment reaches 6.5%, as long as inflation remains at about 2%. If unemployment reaches 6.5%, and this is because more people are dropping out of the labor market, he will take this into account. If unemployment stays high the Fed indicated in its statement that it would tolerate a higher inflation of 2.5%, as long as the longer term outlook was for inflation to be at 2%. Bernanke said this doesn't mean monetary policy is on autopilot, because the Fed will watch conditions carefully and will leave room for flexibility- keeping an eye out for new asset bubbles that could develop, and monitoring labor market conditions and inflationary pressures and inflation expectations. If inflation falls well below 2%, or unemployment rate falls mainly because of people dropping out of the labor market, the Fed may continue to keep interest rates low. This policy was announced as U.S. fiscal cliff deficit negotiations continued in Dec. 2012 with one scenario being considered by both political parties being going over the Jan. 1 deadline before coming to an agreement. Bernanke pointed to this, saying "this is a major risk factor right now." The Fed's activist policy in economic policy has given financial markets and business a measure of stability not provided by government and Congress. Fed policy is to buy $40 billion of mortgage securities, and $45 billion of long term Treasury securities for each month in 2013. It will fund the purchases by adding reserves to the banking system, which is to say that it will print money to buy more bonds. This is a major decision by the Fed in that the Fed has shied away from unemployment targets in the past. Bernanke described this action as a new"automatic stabilizer" in the U.S. financial system- if unemployment rises investors know this pushes the Fed's interest rate increases further down the road and would drive interest rates down, if unemployment drops sooner than expected, investors anticipating Fed's rate increases would drive long term interest rates up, to keep stable growth....

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WSJ Analysis of $1 trillion Medicaid Cuts in the One Big Beautiful Act-who it impacts most. It means less money for insurers, hospitals, and 9 million able bodied Medicaid recipients being moved to being covered by new employers. Under extension of Obamacare able bodied Americans were added to Medicaid in some of the states. Some states such as Texas and Florida and other southern states decided not to do this. The One Big Beautiful Act removes this extension of Obama care and the funding to states and adds the able bodied requirement to cut funding by about $1 trillion. Insurance companies who covered the insured and got payments from the federal government will lose these payments. Hospitals will also lose these payments from the federal government that sent money to the states for funding Medicaid. Overall Medicaid funding is proportionally cut more in Republican states. In Arizona, Kentucky and Virginia Medicaid cuts will be 18%, compared to 9% in New York and 13% in California. 93% of the cuts are in states that have expanded Medicaid to include able bodied adults. The Big Beautiful Act also cuts down on provider taxes which hospitals used to get more funding. Rural hospitals are given access to a $50 billion fund in the Act  so they can be kept open. ...

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German authorites are looking into the possibility that higher up management knew about the emissions cheating and whether management had permitted it to take place. A search warrant was issued by a judge in Munich in March 2017 that makes it possible for investigators to take documents and other evidence on mobile phones of senior management, including Mr. Muller and Mr. Stadler, two very senior executives who head VW and Audi. Almost 2 years after the story first came to light the investigation continues and the probe deepens into who knew what at the highest levels of management.

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Changes in Iowa in the Des Moines Register-Selzer poll in the last days of 2024.

This poll shows-

The Democracy issues raised by president Biden have traction in the state of Iowa, as this is the No. 1 issue cited by people supporting Harris and Biden, by 51%. Abortion comes next at 22%. 

It also shows the Economy and Cost of Living was the No. 1 issue for traction for Republicans in Iowa it being cited by 49% of Republicans. Immigration comes next at 25%.

Harris support among older Iowans over 65 years who almost always vote at 55% to 36%, and by voters under 35 years by 46% to 44%. 

97% of Democrats support Harris, 89% of Republicans now support Trump in Iowa. 

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What the shape of the $1 trillion stimulus package over 2 years will be and what its going to look like.

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The Conservative Party under David Cameron won 330 seats in the British parliament, securing a majority in the 2015 general elections. The Labor party won 232 seats, losing 26 seats compared to the 2010 election. The Conservatives gained 24 seats. The Labor party lost very badly in Scotland, winning only 1 seat. The Scottish National Party won 56 of 59 seats in Scotland. Opinion polls underestimated the strength of the Conservatives whose campaign theme was jobs created under the Cameron administration. Austerity was a theme for the Scottish National Party and Labor, yet as Greg Ip reported in his column on the British economic recovery the Cameron administration adroitly managed this by relaxing deficit targets after 2012 forecasts on the deficit cutting could not be met with lower revenues. Labor was hit by the sense that the Tony Blair type liberal economics had failed to reverse the decline in real wages and jobs for working class people, and the Conservatives were taking on a tough situation with the deficit and the 2008-2009 recession that started under Labor. This hurt Labor in Scotland and in the rest of Britain. Labor leader Ed Balls lost his seat. The UK Independence Party fared badly winning only one seat and its leader Nigel Farage lost his seat. Prime minister Cameron promised a EU referendum for 2017 during the election, and he will now have to manage this issue as his party favors membership in the EU with some changes. The improvement in jobs was a strong point for the Conservatives, yet Britain faces wage stagnation with low productivity gains which will be a challenge for the new administration....

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The comments attributed to Chief Executive Leung during the election in 2012 about supporting the use of riot police against protestors opposing an anti subversion law in 2003, and his use of tear gas against demonstrators, have infuriated people in Hong Kong. Toeing the Beijing line without consideration of Hong Kong people is making life diificult for Leung. Particularly because of revelations made in the 2012 election campaign that he could not have at the age of 31 been appointed to the committee on the drafting of the Basic Law unless he was a member of the Communist Party. Because of his huge unpopularity Wong says it may be easier for Chinese president Jinping to dismiss Leung and placate Hong Kong people, as a first step. This could be followed by more discussion on the issue of universal suffrage and free elections without prescreening of candiates by the Communist Party.

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Mary Barra, 51, head of global product development, is the new CEO of GM following Dan Akerson. Akerson will retire. She is a electrical engineer who started as a co-op student at GM in 1980. Her experience includes engineering positions, managing a assembly plant, and heading the human resources department in 2009. The president's position goes to CFO Dan Ammann, 41. Former Cummins CEO and chairman, Mr. Solso, will take up the chairman's position at GM. Mark Reuss will assume Mary Barra's position. This completes the transition planned by Akerson as the government sells its remaining shares in GM following the bailout. Akerson says he felt as if he was seeing a daughter graduate from college. It is a significant moment for the U.S. auto industry as a younger leadership looks to the future.

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Melania Trump and her documentary "20 Days to History" with Amazon support in production and marketing. Melania says at the premier that she wanted to show what it was like to be in her role, to "show other people what it takes to go from being a private citizen to first lady again." Melania has been underestimated and has shown leadership in mental health issues, on how internet and social media affects children, on housing in disaster relief, and on a range of issues that affect women and children. She also brings originality in her thinking about issues. For someone from Slovenia to come to the US as an immigrant and to be thrust into roles that she never would have anticipated she has shown exceptional composure and ability to learn and absorb from events happening so quickly around her. TR would have recognized her abilities and her softspoken and effective ways to assert herself on issues relating to the social media and how it affects children, one of the key issues facing the US for the next generation. ...

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 Housing and lack of rental housing units in Amsterdam a top issue in 2025 elections. There is an estimated shortage of 400,000 homes in Netherlands, about 5% of the total housing units in the country. D66 party of centre-left has proposed 10 new cities. The Labour- Greens propose a tax on vacant properties. Geert Wilders Freedom Party proposes a "crisis plan" and fewer rules. Young people from overseas find the situation worse than in New York City. A 2024 law on affordable rents has led to landlords selling off properties instead of renting out space.