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Response to question whether this $100 a barrel oil is possible is yes, if something big happens in the oil flows from middle east or if there is a Katrina style hurricane. Reason being that oil demand has not slackened up either from Asia or from the U.S. automobiles. How would this impact the USA, Europe, Asia? The impact on Japan and Europe would be less because of the high efficiency in use energy use. This could slowdown the U.S. economy considerably as gasoline approaches $5 a barrel. India would be hurt with a drop in GDP growth from 8% to 6% according to an estimate by Crisil, Mumbai. It would affect Chinese growth also but the main impact would be indirect through a decline in the U.S. market for Chinese made products. Russia would gain and economic growth there could accelerate further from 6% to 9% according to estimate by MDM Bank, Moscow.

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Indian prime minister Modi says India "will go above and beyond" the 2015 Paris climate change accord. He said at a news conference with French president Macron that it was "our duty to protect Mother Earth." He said after the meeting that the Paris accord was "the common heritage of the world," and "a gift that this generation can give." India has set ambitious goals for solar and wind energy as costs of solar become competitive with coal. Because India desperately needs energy for over 200 million people who lack electricity, India's shift away from reliance on coal may be a lesson learned from the damage to air and water in China's two decade industrial expansion based on coal.

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The Dow Jones Average stock index drops by 800 points on August 14, 2019 with the ratcheting up of tensions in Hong Kong over autonomy protests, and the ongoing trade U.S. China trade dispute with more tariffs in September. Weak economic data from Europe exacerbated the situation. 

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James Hagerty of WSJ provides this exceptional account of a company that proves it can be done if only you learn from setbacks, and innovate, even in a declining industry. In rural Arcadia in western Wisconsin, an unlikely person trained for farming in an unlikely location, Ron Wynek has built the largest furniture maker in America, growing at 10% a year! This story tells how it started, the setbacks, the resonse and how it is done. Speed in decision making comes from Ashley Industries being a family owned operation with Ron and his son Todd very attuned to the manufacturing process for keeping costs down, and attuned to the opportunities in providing value to customers in America. As furniture makers in the South withered under the impact of Asian manufacturers, Ashley thrives with 60% of manufacturing done in highly efficient American midwest factories with costs kept down, and an efficient delivery system of its own that helps retailers keep low inventory. The imports come from three factories in Vietnam to Prince Rupert in B.C., Canada and are shipped by rail containers to Wisconsin, with grain and hide shipped back in the same containers. Ron Wynek was destined to be a farmer, but his wife preferred to stay in town, where he decided to go into the furniture business. The business faced Asian imports with half the cost of manufacturing, and Wynek took the advice of his Congressman not to look for government protection but find new ways to compete. He started importing from Taiwan, moved into furniture products such as bedroom furniture that faced less intense competition in the early days. He invested heavily in logistics, technology and manufacturing efficiency, to come up with a model that could withstand and grow in the face of Asian competition. Ashley is now larger than Lazy Boy and Ethan Allen combined, with sales close to $4 billion, and is expanding with a large store opened in Shanghai, China. ...

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This is a very informative interview with Joe Biden. So far Biden has given few interviews where he talks freely at length about how he plans to run his administration and what is most important to his heart. The title is very misleading in this respect. Unlike the inexperience of Obama with his "we won" we must be doing something right, Biden with his years of experience comes closer to Lyndon Johnson or Truman and the same drive to get things done. He says in this interview "there is no elation." He just wants to get somethings done as quickly as he can and he knows Congress as well as Lyndon Johnson did when he tried to get his vision of "the Great Society." It is almost as if the Biden sequel to the inexperience of Obama, is like the Johnson sequel to the inexperience of Kennedy.   To understand Biden is to know what hurts him most. Biden feels the pain that every rural county in America did not vote for him. He knows something is deeply wrong that this should happen as it has never happened before. It may be time to define diversity differently - people of diverse backgrounds not just ethnic or race but also whether with rural or urban backgrounds as they are today totally different. He also feels the pain that seventy two million Americans voted for Trump. He will judge his success or failure in winning over about half of them to bring this down from 47-48% to 25%. These issues will define and shape the Biden presidency. Can he deliver to the rural counties, health care, education, broad band connectivity, everything that has disrupted life in rural America from the way it was in the Truman and Eisenhower administrations when it comes to the social fabric. The China issue simply fits into this. European societies are feeling the pain of the fragmentation in their social fabric with starkly different opportunities for life in rural vs urban. Respect for fellow Americans comes before respect for China- or Japan, or India, or Europe. Biden understands what three decades of shift of manufacturing jobs to China and other countries have done to American communities, to small towns and the rural areas surrounding them in America. For this reason Biden does not plan to change the Agreement China made with the Trump administration for 25% tariffs on a portion of imports from China and China's written agreement to buy $200 billion of American products. For this reason his response to China's challenge emerging from trade policy set in motion by the Clinton administration, and allowed to continue by the Bush and Obama administrations with the addition of foreign wars that dissipated the country's finances urgently needed for infrastructure building and investments in education and advancing science and technology, is to reverse all the negative trends. Biden plans to make the investment in America that Mr. Trump started but to do this more effectively, he says.   ...

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Intervew by Deborah Solomon with former Clinton era SEC Commissioner, Arthur Levitt, captures the mood of the public in the USA. Super skepticism and disbelief about public servants, including those of some stature in the past like Levitt. The questions are suggestive of the angst and loss of innocence, and willingness to ask the straight question right out. Solomon tries to get Levitt to take responsibility for what has happened under his and others watch. What do you feel Mr Levitt about the American economic landscape and see 401 K's going up in smoke? Have you changed your spending habits? Are you kicking yourself for not having caught Madoff at his game? After you left your SEC post what led you Mr Levitt to become an adviser to the Carlyle Group, which had ties to the Bush family and defense contracting? This question grates on Levitt. He responds that it is such a Michael Moore like exaggeration, that he was an adviser to the Carlyle Group before he went to Washington. And then Ms Solomon asks the question straight out, saying that frankly she can't understand why the SEC culls its leaders from the world of high stakes investment, when there is this "capture theory" that states that regulators get co-opted by the industries they regulate if one isn't very careful. And the response from Levitt is evasive as he talks about the patriotism of the 4,100 people who served with him at the SEC. Ms Solomon isn't accepting this and calls it boosterism, telling Levitt he hasn't answered her question. Levitt tries another escape route and talks about the European system of gray bureaucrats running government agencies forever, and how refreshing the American system of repotting private sector talent to bring fresh ideas is. Solomon's steers the dialogue in another direction. She reminds him about his father Arthur Levitt Sr. , who was the New York State Comptroller for more than 20 years. Yes, says Levitt Sr.'s son, his father was passionate about defending the interests of pensioners, and his mother was a schoolteacher for 38 years. That gets Levitt reminiscing about his growing up years with his grandparents in Brooklyn, when his grandfather would check 75 used bulbs to see if one worked before using a new one. What has thrift got to do with this Solomon starts to think, after all Levitt is an adviser to the Carlyle Group. Put that in your report, yes, says Solomon, I will. Ms Solomon is getting right down to the point by now. Levitt can reminisce about the thrift about the old days, but the public wants answers. Do you feel you should apologize, does this keep you up at night? Levitt's response: not really, I'll try not to think about it. See the link to Rubin's letter of resignation from his position at Citigroup to CEO Vikram Pandit. Rubin another Clinton era adviser and Treasury Secretary, is being asked similar questions....

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Typical of so much of what is written about the World Health Organization and its role in the pandemic, this podcast in the WSJ fails to quickly convey the critical function of the WHO as an early warning system the world has depended on, including China. The H1N1 epidemic originated in Mexico. Asian countries including China and India depended on very quick response from the country where the epidemic originated  in allowing entry into the affected area for experts from advanced countries such as the U.S. The global response was then coordinated across countries quickly with complete transparency. The head of China's CDC himself faced a problem with transparency with the provincial authorites in Wuhan. 1.    Fundamentally this quick entry was denied the U.S. Request by U.S. to China was made on Jan. 6 for U.S. team to go to Wuhan, quick permission was denied and given only about 6 weeks later on Feb 16. This delay is the crux of the problem for the U.S.. Taiwan confirmed human to human transmission on Jan. 1, the WHO was saying this was not clear as late as Jan. 14. These costly delays are what the U.S.  letter is about.  The head of the CDC China Gao Fu called Dr. Redfield head of CDC in the U.S. on the next day after he suspected Wuhan provincial authorites were vague about what was happening. Gao Fu was alarmed when scanning the internet on December 30, 2019, about rumors of a vaguely worded lung disease in internal memos of Wuhan. He called Wuhan authorites and was not getting clear answers on that day, then deciding on December 31 to send his own team to Wuhan, as reported in German magazine Der Spiegel- Hackenbroch, Zand, 05/20/2020.  Der Spiegel says in its special report on the early period in Wuhan that Gao Fu was so alarmed about what was happening enough to be in tears in his series of calls with Dr. Redfield in the immediate days that followed. The date was shortly after the GAO Fu sent the team to Wuhan, December 31 and New Years Day 2020, as reported in Der Spiegel. See the link to Lyrarc gist of Der Spiegel's "A Failed Deception: The Early Days of the Coronavirus in Wuhan."  2.  President Trump points out the standards of the WHO- in the concluding point of his letter to WHO- when a three time prime minister of Norway, Gro Brundtland was head of the WHO during the SARS crisis of 2003. She acted quickly and decisively and no time was lost. It is this failure of the early warning system under the new president of the WHO after 2017 Dr. Tedros that alarms the U.S.  with about 100,000 deaths.  3.  This failure it can now be said was partly a result of a election in 2017 for the position of WHO president which was flawed. This was the first time a WHO head, an important position was put up for an election. The Executive Board was responsible for this appointment since the founding of the WHO as part of the UN, based in Geneva, Switzerland, after World War II. This system worked. The election was clearly a bad process for appointing the president of the WHO which should be done entirely on the capabilities of the person holding this position not on a flawed voting process. It is flawed because India and Bangladesh hit by a cyclone during the coronavirus have suffered greatly, as have other countries, but had only 2 votes for 1.5 billion people, when Barbados (385,000 population) and Laos (7 million) which had less than one  hundredth the population had the same number of votes. The U.S. had one vote. The election resulted in lobbying and a process in which many candidates stayed away because they simply would not go through such a process. The position was too important to the world- most of the advanced countries had forgotten about the danger of epidemics to let this happen by 2017, as shown in the way the austerity years led to cancellation of the preparations for pandemic in France and Britain. The austerity years and neglect of public health during these tech boom years in the western world made it possible for this to happen. 3.   Along with the 1 month ultimatum action is already being taken to restore the effectiveness of the importance of the Executive Board. The head of the health ministry in India, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, has been appointed the new chairman of the Executive Board on May 22. This restores the voice of billions of people in Asia in the process, and brings the major countries with the greatest risk in a pandemic into the decision process for tackling the pandemic, this includes the rest of the world.     ...

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In his foreign policy address following the northeast state primaries Donald Trump outlines a policy with less foreign engagement in trouble spots, and greater reliance on partners in Europe and Asia contributing to joint defense. It also includes building up the military and nuclear arsenal. It criticizes the Bush administration for intervention in Iraq that benefitted Iran, and the Obama administration for policies that led to the rise of Islamic State. Because Trump is not for supporting foreign engagements in trouble spots the difference in Trump's policies is not announcing or signalling in advance what U.S. response would be, instead keeping it unpredictable. It is not clear how much this would work given that any president would inherit the situation before him, and also the complexity of the situation would not change, such as the need to have Iranian cooperation and Saudi cooperation to tackle Islamic State. The Bush administration started with a similiar intention to focus on domestic policy, till the 9/11 surprise attack steered it away towards nationbuilding overseas. The pendulum swung in the latter years of the Bush adminstration to the Iraq intervention, Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, followed by a swing in the other direction to allowing Libya and Syria disntegrate leading to millions of refugees. Complexity, surprises, and swings of popular opinion, are unlikely to go away, even as caution is exercized and military capabilities enhanced....

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The PRI party defeated the ruling PAN (conservative nNational Action Party) of Presidetn Calderon in midterm elections. PRI won five of six governorships and won 237 seats to the PAN's 143. Mexico is facing its worst economic crisis since 1995 with the devaluation of the peso and American loan assistance. THis time it is aflow-through of the American economic crisis, adrop in exports, a collapse of the auto sector, and drop in remittances from Mexican workers in the USA as well as tourism. The GDP of Mexico dropped 5.9% in 1st qusrter 2009. Unemployment and underemployment have doubled leaving one in six Mexicans without ajob. Poverty also has risen in this situation. Meanwhile a stalemate in the legislature has led to stagnation in terms of addressing critical areas of education, investing in the petroleum sector. And monopolies and oligopolies in a range of industries from tecommunications to cement trim GDP growth by 1% according to Guillermo Ortiz, central bank governor. Oil revenues are dropping, and proven reserves now are equal only to 13 years of current output. And public spending on infrastructure is declining. Disillusionment with the political system is growing, so much so that 5.4% of the ballots were spoiled in response to a campaign by political activists fed up with corruption and paralysis in the political system....

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Hon Hai, a Chinese company which makes IPads and IPhones for Apple has grown by doing high quality work for lower prices than anyone else. In the process Hon Hai has generated a culture that is tough even by Chinese standards. About 250,000 workers are employed in its factories in Shenzen alone. A series of suicides at the plant has attracted attention to the tough conditions. One worker says conversation on the production line is banned, bathroom breaks are limited to 10 minutes for every 2 hours, and the discipline is strict. Hon Hai won Apple's order says one supply-chain search expert, by pricing low. Its CEO Gou was willing to sell some components at zero profit according to people familiar with his actions. Workers come from rural areas, are very young, the first time they are away from their families, and live in dormitories, eight to ten people to a room. Hon Hai's response is to increase wages 30%. But a report about a college graduate who was asked about conditions reflects the general feeling. This graduate makes twice as much in product development, at 2000 yuan a month, or $293 a month. But the monotonous life and the feeling of no future affects this worker and may be a sign of something changing in China's factories. The unwillingness to accept the conditions that existed in the past....

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Australian anthropologist Genevieve Bell heads a group of 75 people at Intel Labs working to figure out all the ways technology affects people and society. Here she talks to NYT's Quentin Hardy. She says there are three areas in which technology is changing the way we live, and act, and our relationship to society. Like electrification the digital revolution is changing the concept of time, introducing new ideas about availability and response time. Here she points out the need to leave some parts of the day for disconnectedness, to preserve quiet time in our lives for recharging and getting a sense of who and where we are. Then there is the idea of space, of imaginary space when connecting to people in distant places, and physical space such as at airports and public places with wifi and internet to connect. After space and time come social relationships, about relating to one's fellow human beings. With this comes ideas of privacy, security and risk. With changes in how we view time, space and social relationships, comes anxiety. Social movements are likely to develop around ideas of government and governance, on issues such as what it means to be unequal and denied economic opportunity, when the digital revolution itself is opening up new visions of what is possible, just as electrification did at the turn of the twentieth century....

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Jeff Bezos's letter to employees of The Washington Post shows why Graham family members, Donald Graham and Katherine Weymouth, who own and run the newspaper, see Bezos as the right person to continue the family's legacy from 80 years of stewardship. Apart from saying he has known Donald Graham for over 10 years and knows no finer person, Bezos also said about the critical role journalism plays in a free society: "I would highlight two kinds of courage the Grahams have shown as owners that I hope to channel. The first is the courage to say wait, be sure, slow down, get another source. Real people and their reputations, livelihoods and families are at stake. The second is the courage to say follow the story, no matter the cost." Bezos also pointed out the major changes in the journalism field from the arrival of the internet. Changes he will now address as owner of the newspaper and one of the business pioneers in the field of internet retailing, starting with books and following this up with the Kindle reader. Bezos sees the changes coming from three sources: "shorter news cycles, eroding long-reliable revenue sources, and enabling new kinds of competition, some of which bear little or no news-gathering costs." His response will be to invent and experiment in new ways....

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Republican Jeb Bush's address to the 2013 CPAC conference focusses on the decline of social and educational mobility in the U.S. to its lowest point since 1945. In this address he points out that " the central mission of conservatives is to reignite social mobility in this country- restoring the right to rise." His focus on restoring the right to rise is on doing everything to increase opportunities for "quality education," an issue on which he focussed as governor of Florida. He sees technolgy and relative youthful population compared to China and other countries in Europe, as giving America a unique advantage. On this and individual efforts he pins the broad hopes of the middle class revival he sees. He puts the problems of America's middle class and working class as wages declined and the economy suffered from misallocation of resources in stark terms- "Today, the sad reality is that if you're born poor, if your parents did'nt go to college, if you don't know your father, if English isn't spoken at home- then the odds are stacked against you. You are more likely to stay poor today than at any other time since World War II." And he sees Conservatives having a response to this situation, and restoring the idea of America as a land of opportunity for all....

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BAE Systems has a $120 million contract to provide social anthropologists to the Defense Department of the USA. In December, L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. acquired International Resources Ltd, a Washington based economic-development firm which is different from its military advisory business. This is the way the Defense Department and the suppliers to the Defense department are changing in response to Defense Secretary Gates philosophy that economic development, rule of law programs and strategic communications and a whole host of soft power initiatives are essential needs, and to the new President's philosophy. Now US Defense suppliers Lockheed and Northrop are providing peacekeepers thorugh the State Department, and BAE SYstems is providing social anthropologists in addition to armored vehicles to go with US troops on village patrols. The State Department, Agency of International Development and a changing Defense Department are all getting the attention of suppliers who are building new relationships for new needs and new services tackle the issues of terrorism, poverty, drugs and crime that generate or exacerbate conflict in other countries. In the first budget presented recently Obama pledged $50 billion double the amount before for foreign assistance. A portion of the $130 billion requested for wartime operations in 2010 will be allocated to these new kinds of services which are more effective and generate better understanding and support for the US in other countries....

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Steinhauser, Walker and Stevis provide an exceptionally good account of the events leading to the March 25, 2013 EU 10 billion euro bailout of Cyprus, with the closing of one bank and the downsizing of another bank. The Cyprus government of president Anastasiades bluffed and lost. That Anastasiades and the Cyprus government would do this in serious negotiations with the finance ministers of Netherlands, Germany, France, the EU, ECB and the IMF at the headquarters in Brussels, in negotiations that ran to midnight on Sunday March 24, 2013, is simply astounding. Charles Dallara representing European bankers tried to do this with German chancellor Merkel at EU headquarters in Brussels during negotiations on Oct. 27, 2011, on an earlier confrontation over bondholder haircuts, bluffed to the last minute and lost. The way Cyprus handled the negotiations surpassed that. Right down to the last hours the Cyprus president waffled- backtracking on earlier agreement to close Cyprus Popular Bank. Calls were made by German finance minister Schauble to Merkel and by French finance minister Muscovici to French president Hollande to give a joint Franco-German response. Finally Anastasiades was told to pack up and leave on Sunday, March 24. The Cyprus government was not defending small depositors as its earlier plan was to tax all deposits at the two largest Cypriot banks 6.875%. Merkel saw this as an error as this would hurt small savers. The final agreement shut down Cyprus Popular Bank but protected insured deposits under 100,000 euros. Another disturbing sign for the ECB and the EU was Cyprus allowing several hundred million dollars to be wired out of the country even though banks were closed and an offical freeze on ouflows existed. A serious mistake in negotiations was when Cyprus finance minister kept EU finance ministers, the IMF and the ECB officials in the dark by not returning calls for 16 hours on Thursday March 25, 2013, while he tried to negotiate a deal in Moscow with Russia's Putin. This destroyed Cyprus's credibility leading to the ECB's warning to cut off liquidity to Cypriot banks which would put the banks into instant bankruptcy. By Friday morning, March 22, 2013, Merkel was angrily briefing her CDU party lawmakers on the negotiations, telling them the Cyprus government and Anastasiades did not get it, that the whole Cyprus model of outsized offshore banking sector- catering mainly to Russian investors - had collapsed. Cyprus unlike any other member of the EU was trying to face down Europe. Negotiations with Greece had been tough and street protests everpresent, yet negotiations went on in a responsible manner and in good faith, something missing here....

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Rebecca Solnit says the Biden administration has governed very well over the last three years, the Washington Post, NYT, WSJ are showing poor judgement and lack of civic duty in not considering what the two alternative visions of America are today as offered by the candidates in the 2024 election. On climate change alone the differences are vast and if nothing is done the results will be catastrophic with increasing risks of extreme heat, floods and other catastrophes. Because of this and all the work being done under Biden's leadership in manufacturing in America, in rebuilding its infrastructure, and in building leadership in science and chips, the Washington Post, the NYT, WSJ, and the television media have shown an extraordinary degree of incompetence. The Washington Post had a sample of its readers responses which we show today in Lyrarc. Of 5 letters from all parts of the country only one stated the Post's position, the rest all 4 wholeheartedly supported Biden and his overall record, his vision and competent administration. This itself shows that the president has the support of the American people and the Media has the lowest ratings in its entire history somewhere in the 20% level where it has languished for the last two decades as we pointed out in Movement for Global Literacy. ...

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The credibility of the US at stake in its ambivalent responses to the protests in Egypt against thirty years of one-party rule under Mubarak. Opposition leader and Nobel laureate El-Baradei leads demonstrators after prayers at a mosque in Cairo and is met by waves of police shooting tear gas. After returning to the mosque El-Baradei tells reporters that Mubarak's regime has closed the door to a peaceful transition with its use of the police in large numbers to stop the demonstrators. He said if the international community is not speaking now when would it speak up. He called the Mubarak regime barbaric in its treatment of the Egyptian people on the streets of Cairo and other cities. He held the US responsible for its wavering and hesitant approach to the popular revolt demanding democracy, human rights and the rule of law. By supporting the barbaric regime the international community should not be surprised if it loses all credibility in Egypt and the rest of the world, said El-Baradei. ...