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Failing states pose immigration issues in the US at the border with Mexico. With a collapsing economy there are 7.1 million refugees from Venezuela. Many have settled in Latin America. Others hundreds of thousands want to cross illegally into the US. As the US has no diplomatic relations with the US making harder to deport them. When Ukraine war started Ukrainians were kept from crossing from Mexico by setting up a legal path for them to come. 78000 Cubans, Haitians and Nicaraguans were crossing in December 2022, this dropped to hundreds by July by setting up a legal path for these people to get a work permit for 2 years legally. Venezuela will require a similar innovative solution at the border.

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A clean break from commissions of every sort is needed in India, without that Mohandas Gandhi's work and legacy is lost, the opportunity of modernization of India and the economy on a scale surpassing China using the latest technology and huge investments in infrastructure is lost.  Lyrarc has a pledge in India -The Way Forward for every young person in India to take. The future of infrastructure building, ease of living, modernization of a nation of 1.4 billion depends entirely on this. Every penny, every cent, every rupee goes into infrastructure building to create a modernized nation and economy similar to the US and Europe. The situation with "40% commission" in Karnataka and its impact on the recent outcome in the southern Indian state of Karnataka is shown in the Indian Express. Indian Express analysis shows that the ruling party did well in coastal Karnataka and poorly across the rest of the state in comparison to 2019. It happened even in Gujarat but was corrected in time by Mr. Modi.  This analysis in Indian Express says the reason the vote share of 36% led to 104 seats in 2019 and only 66 seats in 2023 is that a lot of the votes were concentrated not all over Karnataka as in 2019 but only in Old Mysore and in Bengaluru, and also in south Karnataka where it cut into JDS party votes without winning seats. Divine providence offers an opportunity for everyone to reject commissions 100%. Gandhi's Hind Swaraj 1910 needs that kind of committment today to surpass that made in 1931 during the Salt March against British rule, to build a modern nation and modern economy by 2035 comparable to the best in the US and Europe. ...

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Greg Ip says all the data show the economy is much stronger with low unemployment and inflation coming down, yet for the nation people are not so upbeat, and for their own state really upbeat. He attributes it to the general mood of uncertainty of people, and the negativity with which the media presents news. Some clues to what they actually believe can be seen below the superficial look at the data. For instance as people surveyed say they feel the economy is much worse today by a significant margin for the whole nation they say just the opposite for their own state by an equally significant margin. Listen to this- the WSJ poll Greg Ip cites shows US economy is getting worse or better in the graph. For the US it shows 31% think it is getting worse. The opposite for Arizona 30% and Pennsylvania 25% think it is getting better. In other states people say it is about 18% better- the states are Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. This suggests that the surveys have to be looked at from the perspective of their own state which reflect the data which clearly shows a big improvement. Greg Ip says the WSJ has seen this in another place, when people are about Congress they say its looking worse, when asked about their own state Congressman they say just the opposite and quite favorable. It is something that is important to bear in mind in 2024 and for the future, the American people are still rational and science based in their thinking, as they have been throughout the nation's history pioneering in the Industrial Revolution. ...

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Vigorous and eloquent testimony before Congress by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, answering questions from Republicans and Democrats. Bessent had just landed from London at 3 am in the morning and after 3 hours of sleep took the time to answer over 5 hours of questioning by members of the House of Representatives. In question after question he explained how the certainty offered by the tax cuts bill would help small business and job creation in the US. The permanence of the 100% expensing of buildings and equipment would help farmers and small business , regulations would be cut, and manufacturing would take off. Manufacturing employs 9% of the workers in the US and their wages will rise faster than for service workers. The combined effects of the improvements for small business, farmers and for manufacturing workers will help the American middle class, America's working class, and increase the growth of the economy. Bessent points out that in the original bill of which the new tax bill is an extension the top 10% paid 7% more in taxes in 2017. He also points out that workers were hurt the most by the slower rise in wages and the rise in cost of living of 21% in 2021-2022, which he says was in essential goods with the actual impact of about 30%. With higher jobs creation by small business and more investment in the economy more able bodied men can join the workforce and gain healthcare benefits under new rules. He pointed to low inflation at 2.1% and to higher job creation, and to higher growth in the economy of 2.6%, that with other savings could lower the deficit. ...

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The South China Morning Post, SCMP, looks at China at the 40th year of the great economic experiment  that changed China. This started with the Deng reforms by the then Chinese leader that opened up the economy in 1978. As this report points out in 1978 Deng Xiaoping's efforts at loosening the state control of the economy and business was actually a way to get out from the effects of the Cultural Revolution and prevent another Cultural Revolution. Deng was removed from office during the Cultural Revolution. Instead of unquestioned acceptance of Mao the new criterion was "Practice is the Sole Criterion for Testing Truth." In economic and business matters this was followed so that if it worked then the experiment was expanded, gradually giving life to the Chinese model of state capitalism, economic expansion under the state with the state supporting state corporations that operate in a market economy.  This means the Communist Party was to continue its control but with experimentation away from the planned economy in the coastal provinces of Guangdong and Fujian, and then into Shanghai. Experts close to Jiang Zemin, the next leader after Deng, say China's Communist state would not have survived without the changes started by premier Deng. Farmers still did not own the land but they were free to plant and own the yields for their efforts.  Deng established the Three Benefits Principle in 1992 trip to Guangdong, whatever helped increase productivity, increased the strength of the country and improved living standards was good, you did not judge it by whether it was socialist or capitalist. Jiang Zemin's work was to follow Deng's ideas and help negotiate the entry into World Trade Organization and set up the new economic regulations. Capitalists were allowed to join the Communist Party for the first time. State and local government ownership of land was turned into an advantage as this provided one of the critical inputs in terms of land for setting up new factories, with capital coming from savings, and other inputs of technology and investment coming from the U.S. after entry into the WTO brought American and European companies to China. A steady supply of labor poured in from the countryside and urbanization became a goal of Chinese development policies. Today India and other countries in Africa, Latin America, can look at the Chinese experience and effort and look for ways to modernize, urbanize and improve living standards, productivity and strength of their economy. One key is to experiment and look for what works that can then be expanded to other locations, and build on the advantages that may open up as the experiment makes progress. Following entry into WTO China was able to take advantage of overseas markets and build an edge in manufacturing, something that was not evident even in 1992.   ...

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This essay in the Economist magazine describes the voter rejection of ruling parties and their candidates in France. Two presidents and two former prime ministers from the Socialist party and the Republican Party, Hollande and Sarkozy, Valls and Fillon face rejection. And another candidate from the Republican party Juppe also has fared poorly. This leaves two outsiders LePen of the National Front, and Macron a former Economy minister in the Hollande government who launched En Marche as his own movement for moderate change alternative in 2016. The rural-urban and less educated-more educated divide which was evident in voting in the U.S. election and the Brexit referendum is now seen in France, says this essay. Research from the Economist shows National Front support highest in outlying areas of major cities. The fears of immigration, terrorism, and globalization leaving parts of the working class behind are factors in this election. Support for the European Union is also a factor as it has suffered in recent years.     ...

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The U.S. perception that the shadows from the period of non-alignment in the Nehru era still linger in Indian policy, a sort of ambivalence that has denied India's true potential as an alliance partner for the free world. A perception in the U.S. that has not seen the true potential of the largest population in the world of 1.5 billion people in India and Bangladesh has also colored perception of the relationship. This population is now at a point at which a broad based development is not only possible (sab ka vikas sab ke sath) but also moving at an accelerated pace. With a combination of cumulatively increasing inputs of technology, capital, land and educated labor force this is now at the potential of becoming a very doable world changing event by 2035- a $20 trillion economy by doubling every 5 years based on renewable energy and dedicated to health, education and development. What makes this a world changing event is the opportunity to meet the aspirations of about 2 billion people in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and surrounding nations, offering new hope for Africa and Latin America. For this the U.S. commitment cannot have any traces of ambivalence, and the Indian commitment cannot have any traces of ambivalence. India needs one more change in its perceptions - to realize that for the first time in its history that this is within its reach. ...

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The failures in Argentina's management of the economy recurring decade after decade for the last 50 years and with an historical trend, relate to the breakdown in the political process in the country, the failure of society to come to grips with the problems as one community with common interests when fighting inflation as we see in most nations including in the US, Europe and modernizing nations of Asia. As well as countries such as Brazil that have overcome their issues with inflation since the 1970's. The lack of industrialization in Argentina and Chile leaves the countries vulnerable to commodity exports. A bad harvest year can ruin the economy as no rainy day fund exists as was done in Russia after economic crises. Borrowing from the IMF leads to a cycle of repeat crises followed by IMF borrowings, austerity budgets such as Milei's when budgets can be corruption free, disciplined and efficient to begin with for a startand kept that way by the whole of society acting together under responsible political leaders. Asian nations learned from Europe and drafted their economic path, Latin America which is largely populated by emigrants from Europe has failed to do this. The differences are stark. Much of Asia experienced war and strife since the 1930's and the suffering created a dire need for good leadership and programs for modernization and infrastructure by all of society pulling together. In Latin America the failures of political parties across the spectrum has led to drugs entering the economic framework, leading to failed states in other ways, and large parts of Latin America are now affected by this problem. The results are that this affects the people of Europe and the US with illegal flows, a problem unprecedented in the history of the US since 1787.  ...

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The author of the study Youth in Germany Kilian Hampel says, German youth after the pandemic have increasing stress about soaring housing costs, inflation, war in Ukraine, and fears about old age poverty. This is similar to what is happening in the US. This will be a factor in the European elections. Though a lot is written about far right parties. Much of the work that remains is about ensuring fairness, and equity, tackling inflation and building housing. This needs greater investment than Germany is today undertaking. Much of the Greens and Socialist party plans to invest in the last federal election were stalled when they did not get a majority and had to depend on the FDP which is too conservative for making the investments needed in the economy. In the US Biden forged abipartisan effort and invested heavily in Republican areas in the south and west. A similar task is needed in Germany including investing in the East and in education, healthcare and building new infrastructure. Rail, road, airport and bridge infrastructure in Germany is dilapidated and only by investing in it can the economy gain strength to meet the aspirations of young people. ...

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PM'S Questions UK Parliament, November 12 2025- on Labour and Reform UK performance on migration, governance and the economy. Keir Starmer answers questions from MP's in the British parliament. It comes as Conservatives shift to UK Reform and the Conservatives are at a new low in popularity, and the Labour Party revamps its migration policy so that it is closer to socialist prime minister Mette Frederiksen's policy in Denmark who has a successful policy to stop migrants and deport illegal migrants. Without this action by Labour to follow the US and Denmark it faces serious challenge from Reform UK in the north and east of England. 

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The US dollar is only 5% way from reaching parity with the euro. The euro was at $1.03 during the beginning of May. It is at $1.05 on May 21. With the US central bank raising rates, and the effects of energy shortages on the European economy, parity looks likely says this report in WSJ. Additionally weakening demand from China for European goods or the EU shifting its supply chains back to home countries and trading less with China could also have an impact from the ripple effects of China's support for the Russian position on Ukraine.

 

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There is a clear difference between Biden and Trump on the Climate. Biden put the US back into the 2015 Paris Climate Change Treaty in fight against climate change after Trump took the US out of it. Trump supports coal and oil & gas. Biden is working to phase out of coal and fossil fuels in a way that still keeps the economy strong. There is place where the difference is so starkly clear. Expect climate change events, storms, fires, floods to grow under Trump, and storms, fires and floods to be made to recede under Biden with strong climate change action.

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The Russian economy had GDP decline of 2% and was relatively not affected by the shutoff of imports of oil and gas from Europe in 2022. Gas exports to Europe began declining in the summer. The EU ban on seaborne oil from Russia and price cap went into effect in December 2022. Russia made a huge stimulus of 4% of GDP in 2022. The result is that only now in 2023 is the full impact being felt on the Russian economy.  WSJ reports that in January and February Russian exports of oil and gas revenue which makeup half of the budget fell by 46% year over year, while state spending jumped 50%. Analysts estimate that it would take a price of $100 for Russia to balance its books. Yet the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil has brought it down to $50- the price the Ministry of Finance says Urals crude sold in February. This is a deep discount to the $80 price of Brent Crude, the US benchmark.  A bigger problem is the downward trajectory the Russian economy faces in future years. Worker shortages are severe for industry and a shift to wartime production does not add to productivity or productive capacity. The cut off from access to western technology and western financial markets will have a severe impact in the productive capacity for the economy, for oil and industrial production in the years to 2030. Russia needed to protect against the gradual shift away from fossil fuels to fight climate change by shifting the economy in a new direction using its access to western technologies not just China's technologies. Instead it now finds itself in a period of 1 year in 2022 when oil revenues surged with prices jumping from the war, and then a steady slump in all the inputs of development- supply of labor, capital and technology declining rapidly after 2023 as the costs of the Ukraine invasion are absorbed into the economy. As this report points out it is the social contract that similar to China's social contract of growth and improvement in standards of living that led to people having a large measure of confidence in the government. It was not fully grasped but it was the access to American and European Union plus Japanese technology, manufacturing, capital and markets that made this possible. With this absent the situation changes to put Russia, and China to a lesser extent as long as it trades with the west, on a different trajectory.  ...

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Andrew Ross Sorkin points out that investors are sitting on their hands and money is moving out of the stock market. About $171 billion has moved out of mutual funds over the last year, according to the Investment Company Institute. About $208 billion has gone into the bond market in the same period. There are now fewer long term investors and the market is dominated by professionals which increases the volatility. There is a lack of confidence in the economy, the same reason that businesses in the U.S. are sitting on $2 trillion in cash that could be invested, and for investors the feeling that the market is rigged to favor insiders. The Financial Literacy Group surveyed 878 students at 18 high schools in 11 states in the U.S. It found that three fourths of the students agreed with the statement: "The stock market is rigged mostly to benefit greedy Wall Street bankers."

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Two popular mayors today run the two largest cities in Turkey- Istanbul and Ankara. The two mayors Imamoglu and Yavas are part of the campaign of Republican People's party head Kilcdaroglu, which has a real opportunity to provide a new government in Turkey following the disastrous earthquake and high inflation in the economy. This would also strengthen NATO during a period following Russian invasion of Ukraine and bring Turkey closer to its historical relations with the US and EU.

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About 60% of Americans think the testing for coronavirus and getting medical supplies to health care workers is too slow, in a poll by Wall Street Journal/NBC News. About 6 in 10 Americans in a new survey say they are concerned that the U.S. would move too fast to loosen coronavirus restrictions to slow the spread, and only 3 in 10 say they are concerned that it is not moving fast enough. About twice as many Americans thinking the risks were higher that public authorites and governors would reopen states too soon. About 75% of respondents in the survey say they are very or somewhat worried about themselves or a family member getting the virus. Mr. Trump's approval rating  remains unchanged from March with 46% approving. Most people place their faith in the governor of their state- 66%, and Mr. Fauci, Director National Institute of Infectious Diseases- 60%, than anyone else. On the economy president Trump is seen as being better at handling the economy 47% to 36% than Democratic nominee Biden, even though Biden has a nine point lead. This confirms the widespread dissatisfaction at the way medical supplies shortages are felt at hospitals, and the way testing for coronavirus is happening with not enough testing. President Trump perceived by business and the public as better at handling the economy is also confirmed in this survey. The dissatisfaction with the president for supplies shortages and testing lagging behind may also be tempered by a sense that the public has not taken aggressive action in supporting an early lockdown with many governors and people not supporting or following strict distancing rules till late March. By contrast the president acted quickly to stop all flights from China. ...

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China sees the situation in Hong Kong spiralling out of control after two months of protests and leading to a loss of China's sovereignty in Hong Kong. The Chinese official in charge of Hong Kong Affairs in the State Council, Zhang Xiaoming, met with the Hong Kong government representatives in Shenzen and made it clear offering a dire assessment and the most severe since China resumed sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997 from Britain. Zhang stated- "If the situation worsens further, and there is turmoil that the Hong Kong government is unable to control, the central government absolutely will not just watch without doing anything." He also stated that the central government had enough strength to end the unrest, that the Party center and military force if necessary is behind the Hong Kong government. Wang Zhmin, China's top official in Hong Kong gives a better view of how this is seen in the Party in Beijing. He even called it a "life and death war" comparing it to the "color revolutions" the democratic movements that unseated governments in Georgia, Ukraine and Serbia. China sees this differently than western countries. With its long struggle against colonial rule in the territory controlled by Western powers along China's coastal region, China's ruling party leaders have a very different perception of the situation than is shown in most western media, particularly during the two decades of China's reconciliation with Japan and the U.S. in its effort to catch up. In the rest of the world the perception is very different. The use of a military garrison or riot police from other parts of China would affect China's image carefully built up over two decades of a peaceful developing country working hard to catch up in living standards and technology. As the economy slows to 5-6% the damage would be to business confidence and investment, and to Hong Kong's status as a world financial center. This could also affect China's relations with the U.S., European Union and Britain. with criticism on action by China. Unlike negotiations with Japan by Mr. Lighthizer for president Reagan, when Japan enjoyed a trade surplus such as that of China today (where there were no such issues with Japan as the U.S. had offered security guarantees to Japan), negotiations with China on trade could be affected by issues such as status of Hong Kong. This could lead to a worsening of trade relations, indefinite duration of tariffs and lack of any settlement on trade, further slowing the Chinese economy and hardening positions. ...

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Friedman says Putin acted emotionally by letting impulsive reaction to the anti-Russian feelings in western Ukraine determine Russian policy following the collapse of the Yakunovych government. The months long Russian response in Crimea and eastern Ukraine may have secured Russian pride at a large cost. This includes the damage to the relationship with Germany, seting the EU on a path to look for other sources of energy to reduce dependence on Russian gas, a natural gas deal with China in which the price was kept "a secret" and may have provided China with a bargaining edge considering the timing of the negotiations. The most severe impact is in the loss of confidence within Russia, reminding the Putin administration that though the economy has grown in the Putin years it is still fragile and connected to the global economy. The capital outflows of the magnitude of $160 billion at a time of high inflation and sharply slowing growth actually put at risk the gains Putin and Russia made in the last decade, and risk the future agenda to improve the standard of living of the Russian people eyond the major cities. Putin's own assessment would eventually be closer to that of Alexei Kudrin. Kudrin, finance minister in Putin's previous term, correctly saw the dangers of impulsive policy concentrated in one figure, and the suppression of other voices including the opposition needed for Russia to be governed in a manner similiar to western Europe, to attain a similiar level of economic progress and standards of living. In today's global economy even the U.S., France, UK and states inside Germany need foreign investment for jobs, new ideas and technology, and the opinion expressed on media television and internet shapes investor sentiment to a larger degree than fully understood....

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Harvard professor, Benjamin Friedman, reviews journalist Timothy Noah's book "The Great Divergences: America's Growing Inequality Crisis and What We Can Do About It." Friedman says, Karl Marx got it wrong when he predicted greater inequality based on the situation he saw in Europe and the U.S. in the late nineteenth century. Inequality actually decreased in the U.S. and Europe with industrialization, technological progress, higher educational and income levels by the early part of the twentieth century. Similiarly Simon Kuznets, Nobel Laureate, also got it wrong when he extrapolated from what he saw in the early postwar period, assuming greater equality and better opportunities in future decades. The approach Noah and Friedman advise is to look at individual factors that promote or discourage less divergence in income levels, opportunities and upward mobility. And based on this shape policy and action agenda for better outcomes. A whole range of issues fall in this range- promoting manufacturing and higher wage jobs, immigration policy, investments in education to upgrade skills, better educational opportunities, vocational training, upgrading education to keep up with new technology, and investments in research and new technologies for new industries that would create better opportunities. Because inequality is increasing worldwide, and countries are focussing on improving competitiveness as well as preserving the social fabric in a global economy, this is an issue facing all countries that seek a better future....

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Upward mobility in China was weak and income growth for average workers sluggish during the years before the coronavirus outbreak. In this sense China is similar to the U.S. and Europe where upward mobility gains after the second world war were lost in the last 30 years partly from the loss of manufacturing to China. It is much worse now as the effects of the coronavirus lead to drops of as much as a third in income for ordinary workers. Lower income workers, the vast majority of Chinese numbering hundreds of millions now suffer from lost work or diminished wages. Small businesses cannot afford to pay the salaries paid before and as workers dip into savings or increase borrowing the retail spending is taking a hit. As a result economists see a vicious cycle of lower spending and lower incomes for the hundreds of millions of ordinary workers in construction and smaller businesses. Some small businesses could just close down because of weak demand affecting the economy over the long term. Before the coronavirus China went over three decades from being a Communist country with relatively equal distribution of wealth but lack of growth and technological development to a capitalist country with the structure of state control of the economy from the Communist period. The result is that 1% of the people control 33% of the wealth and the bottom 25% having 1% of the wealth, according to a 2015 Peking University study. China's president Xi Jinping, head of the Communist party, tried to reverse some of these trends by attacking corruption and making changes that began the task of reversing decades of unequal distribution of wealth under state sponsored capitalist growth. Investments were made in rural medical care, infrastructure and basic services. This did not have much impact because much of the pattern of growth over three decades continues including the housing bubble.  With coronavirus the trend is set for even more unequal distribution of wealth as many workers at the bottom half of the population in incomes either lose work, or see drop in incomes as businesses that hire them struggle from shoe factories to other retail business. Reports of informal economy and street markets in Chengdu in western China and bringing this part of the economy back by the state are effort to get people work in other ways. Researchers estimate that China's bottom 60% of household in incomes lost about $200 billion in income in the first half of 2020. In May premier Li Keqiang said 600 million people in China earn only about $140 a month. Many who lost income or jobs do not have support from the government as China lacks a program of comprehensive unemployment insurance as in Europe and the U.S. to help people get over bad times. 300 million migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to loss of income and dipping into savings.   ...

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Michael Boskin of Stanford University, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under the elder Bush, on the risks of protectionism and higher taxes to the economy in the long run, and the need for the Fed to balance the need for providing help with rate cut with the need to keep inflation at low levels. He suggests workouts of the losses from subprime mortgages not bailouts is the correct answer. P.S. A note on December 6, 2008, after the crisis with Bear Stearns in early 2008, and the severe October credit crisis and a series of bailouts of banks, financial institutions and the Detroit auto industry. If one looks for the thinking that was behind the Republican Bush administration's early stand to take no proactive steps to improve things in the economy, then Boskin's article summarizes some of the thinking behind it. Lowering rates at the time except gradually,after the Greenspan moves in preceding years to lower rates and let them stay that way too long (leaving too much liquidity and loose lending in the financial markets), was not to be taken lightly with additional concerns of pushing inflation upwards. And Boskin way underestimated the losses from subprime in December 2007 when he used the estimate of $300 billion investor losses centred in real estate made by the OECD at the time, or as he puts it just one-half of 1% of American's net worth. Concluding that in a $14 trillion economy such losses could be absorbed. He anticipated delays in financing and the need to mitigate that but did not anticipate a collapse of credit markets. Part of this may stem from not realizing the impact of highly leveraged debt on the books of financial institutions and what it could do if fear gripped the financial markets, and underestimating the impact of subprime debt with mortgage securities that had no transparency and distorted credit ratings. Which is why he says that policy should be for workouts not bailouts, emphasizing that the worst idea out there is for a broad interest rate freeze for mortgage borrowers which would throw into question the sanctity of private contracts and thus deter investment. This policy of resisting loan modifications continued as policy of the Bush administration even as Martin Feldstein, another Harvard economist and Reagan administration economic advisor, advocated just that from early 2008 with repeated oped articles in the WSJ throughout the rest of the year....

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Bruni on the view that Obama has squandered his advantages of oratorical transcendence, poetry, serious thoughtfulness, in the U.S. presidential election of 2012. He does not mention the lack of a serious plan to turn the economy around, high rate of joblessness and declining incomes that are a basic issue in the 2012 election, and how oratorical transcendence has little correlation with getting the right policies implemented. The Des Moines Register's support in 2008 put Obama on the road to the presidency in 2008 with a victory in the Iowa primary. In 2012 it gave its endorsement to Romney to give him a chance to correct the problems with the economy and to do this with a new effort to forge the bipartisan consensus missing in the Obama first term.

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With the German economy stagnating and the FDP partner Lindner as Finance minister not willing to invest in the German economy or in defense, Chancellor Scholz fires Lindner. One of the problems that the Social Democrats accepted in the coalition with the Greens and FDP is the role given to the FDP which has acted as a brake on German investment in the economy. By comparison US president Biden has invested a trillion dollars in the US over the last 4 years for infrastructure, chips, science, manufacturing.The result is that the US economy is in stronger shape. It comes a bit late for Scholz but it shows the urgency of the issue and the need to tackle it as the coalition has lost popularity by sticking with the FDP and not able to offer Germans the program they were elected to accomplish of growth and investment in housing, childcare and other areas of the economy.

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The Economist cites figures showing Canada lost 500,000 manufacturing jobs since 2005, with employment in manufacturing down to 1.7 million by 2013. From 2000 to 2013 manufacturing's share of GDP declined from 18% to 10%. This situation is shown by the decaying manufacturing towns seen in Ontario. About 500,000 manufacturing jobs were lost between 2005 and 2013, as the price of oil increased to the $100-$120 range and the Canadian currency was overvalued, leaving the Canadian economy more dependent on energy exports. Some of the auto manufacturing supplier base has shifted from the midwest to southern U.S. states, reducing the attractiveness of Ontario for manufacturing investment. Overvalued currencies have hurt the manufacturing sector of commodity producing countries dependent on exports of mining products or oil, especially Brazil and Canada. The depreciation of the Canadian currency in 2014-2015 may not help, as many of these jobs are not likely to return.

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Egyptian president Morsi appoints a new defense minister and two leading generals are asked to retire and continue as advisers. Because Gen. Tantawi was 76, and the new defense minister who comes from the military body the SCAF is 58, it appears to observers that this is a shift to a new generation within the military. In the background is the situation in Syria with the Assad military regime at risk of falling in a civil war, and the focus of Sunni nations in the Middle East and the U.S. on Iran, which could have led to a U.S. effort led by Secretary of State Panetta during his recent visit to mediate between the different factions for a rapprochement. The rapprochement would benefit the retired generals and the military to continue operating businesses that constitute about 25% of the economy, a younger generation in the military better able to adapt to the changes in the Middle East to assume control under civilian leadership, for the Muslim Brotherhood and other political parties the reversing of military decrees subverting the election results, and for the U.S., Sunni nations in the Middle East and European allies better able to focus on the situation with Iran. For all side a win-win negotiation through efforts by Leon Panetta....