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This report in WSJ says China's government faces severely strained government finances. Local government entities sale of land financed 40% of local government revenues in China, and most of these have dried up with the very real loss of confidence in property sector. Government now faces $900 billion in shortfall in revenues says this report. There may be psychological hurdles in China's growth with the effects on mental health from lockdowns in major cities, the revolt in the property sector with home buyers losing confidence in developers, the loss of confidence of foreign investors from US and EU. The dependence on the property sector to carry so large a burden of growth for the last 2 decades in China may now look like an error. The dependence on foreign investment may also be an error as the loss of confidence could mean some withdrawal and a lack of sustained investment.  It could even be said that restraints on both sectors property and foreign investors could have created alternative paths to growth, and reduced the shift of factories from the US and Europe to China that have now caused trade friction and and a reverse shift of investment back to home countries of US and EU. Trade friction has it appears backfired in a way that extends to the overall relationship which could have been prevented by preventing the hyper growth that happened. Greg Ip of the WSJ has argued that compared to Japan's growth in the sixties and seventies from a country of 100 million the hyper growth for a country of 1 billion for 2 decades created a massive impact on communities in US and EU that were dependent on factories that were lost to China. This has alienated large sectors of the public in the US and EU which could have been prevented by restraints on hyper growth in China. Ip says the growth was too large and too fast for the US to cope. It may have permanently damaged the relations between the two countries showing that trade and globalization had unintended effects when left to business which has no comprehension of how the macro developments can affect the relations between the peoples if the other effects in the relationship such as community impacts are ignored which business says is not its role,  and governments staying away from keeping an eye on how it was happening and adjusting for ill effects with restraint and redirection of business policies. ...

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Zweig points out that P/E multiples fall quickly in the midst of higher uncertainty. Benjamin Graham's "cyclically adjusted" P/E refined by Yale economist Robert Shiller smooths out the top and bottoms of the market by averaging the past 10 years of earnings and incorporating effects of inflation. This "cyclically adjusted" P/E for the U.S. market for the last 50 years is 19.5. The P/E for the market when the S&P 500 was at 1325 in late July 2011 was 22.9, and at the low in the first week of August 2011 of 1167 was 20.2. With the higher uncertainty- as for instance Bank of New York Mellon charging clients to hold cash- the P/E multiples are in a different territory. The P/E dropped to 13.3 in March 2009 after the financial crisis of 2008. Larger macroeconomic trends and uncertainty may have yet to play out and not registered fully in the market indexes. Jack Hough throws light on this from a different angle in the Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2011 comparing stagnant wages and its relationship with corporate earnings....

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Areva will take a writedown of 1.46 billion euros on the value of its uranium mining business. It will take an additional writedown of 800 million euros for the nuclear business following the nuclear accident in Japan. Areva expects a 2011 full year operating loss of 1.4-1.6 billion euros. Areva's new CEO, Luc Oursel, says he plans to reduce the company's debt load. About 1.2 billion euros of assets will be put on sale. The French sovereign fund, SFI, says it will buy Areva's 26% stake in mining group Eramet. Areva faces losses on its acquisition for $2 billion of uranium mining company UraMin, which has declined in value by 80% as uranium prices dropped and uranium reserves in African mines turned out to be less than estimated. Areva's new plans show organic growth of 3-6% from 2012 to 2013, increasing to 5-8% in 2015. Areva's shares at 19.20 euros on Dec. 12, 2011, were down 45% since the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster. Britain and the Czech Republic in Europe, China and India in Asia, plan to invest in nuclear energy....

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In the third fiscal quarter ending June 28, 2014, Apple sold 35.2 million iPhones, up 13% from the year ago quarter. Profit reported was $7.75 billion for the quarter, up from $6.9 billion in the prior year quarter. Revenue increased to $37.43 billion from $35.32 billion the prior year quarter. Apple is not experiencing the weakness in smartphone sales that Samsung is seeing. The strong sales comes with increasing sales in China following the distribution deal with China Mobile. iPad sales slowed with sales declining to 13.3 million iPads in the quarter, down 9% from the prior year quarter. While Samsung has difficulty in preventing lower cost competitors such as Xiaomi and Huawei from eroding sales in China Apple sales are increasing. Apple's revenue in China increased by 28% for the quarter. China is a western brand conscious market as seen in sales of U.S. and German made automobiles. Another trend Apple is capitalizing on is the sale of larger screen iPhones. Screens larger than 5 inches make up 20% of iPhones shipped in China, according to IDC, which are estimated to go up to 50% by 2017....

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Sony announced that it was expecting a loss of 110 billion yen or $1.1 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2014. Sony also announced the sale of the PC Vaio computer business to Japan Industrial Partners, a decision he called "agonizing." Another change is splitting off the television business into a separate subsidiary. The projected full year loss includes $690 million in charges for restructuring the PC and TV business, including job cuts of 1500 in Japan and 3500 overseas by March 2015. Currently the mobile phone and Playstation videogame businesses are operated as separate subsidiaries. TV sales are improving in the 4th quarter 2013, increasing by 40%, and operating loss for TV's is down to $48 million for that quarter. Increases in sales of premium priced ultra high definition TV sets improved margins. For the full year TV business had a loss of 25 billion yen. This is the first sign of a change in the TV business. Playstation sales are expected to hit 5 million by March 2014. Overall Sony showed a net profit of 27 billion yen for the 4th quarter of 2013....

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Fed chairwoman, Janet Yellen, speaks at a community reinvestment conference in Chicago about the difficuties faced by people who are unemployed and take up jobs at lower wages. Yellen says- "the recovery still feels like a recession to many Americans, and it also looks that way in some economic statistics." She cited the case of Jermaine Brownee an apprentice plumber and skilled construction worker, 39 years old, who lost his job, worked on odd jobs and is making lower wages now. Yellen talked to Brownlee on the phone before her speech. Yellen emphasized the indicators she has in mind- the seven million Americans working part time and still looking for full time work, the large number of long term jobless, slow growth in wages, and the insecurity that is preventing Americans from changing jobs to better their position. Yellen's first press conference gave the impression that the Fed was planning to increase rates earlier than previously anticipated. This speech restores confidence in financial markets that the Fed will continue to provide support to the economy. It is also in line with her background and her concern for the unemployed coming from her mentor Yale economist James Tobin....

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Browning points out the record Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) average was not in 2007 but in 2000 when adjusted for inflation- on Jan 14, 2000. Since 1994 consumer prices measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have risen by 55%. Using 1994 dollars the March 5, 2013 closing DJIA average is at 9256, the 2007 high at 10194, and the record on Jan 14, 2000 at 10424, according to calculations made by Bespoke Investment Group. In inflation adjusted terms these calculations show the Dow barely making any progress in relation to the 2000 figure. When dividends and taxes are included, Browning says the inflation adjusted Dow is still not back up to the 2000 level. For retirees and sensible investors the real value of this money has to be taken account. Yale University professor, who founded the CAPE cyclically adjusted P/E, confirms what Browning says in an article in the WSJ March 10, 2013. There Shiller says that the inflation adjusted S&P 500 index has not made it to the 2000 level, so that investors have not made up for money lost in inflation in 13 years....

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General Motors lost a third of its value in a single day as the Dow plunged 679 points on Thursday, October 9, 2008. Why? Citigroup Global Markets estimates that GM which needs between $11 billon and $14 billion in cash to run its business, would end next year with $998 million. Citigroup says "very thin even with a $5 billon asset sale execution." And car sales have not yet reflected the economic downturn's impact on unemployment and consumption, and the effect of foreclosures increasing at an accelerating rate on consumption, as well as the impact of loss of savings in a severe drop in value of shares of over 25% in 2008. As conditions depress the global auto market from Europe to China and India to Brazil, so the few bright spots for GM and Ford overseas are fading quickly. Gimme Credit, an independent ratings agency says Ford has "nine to 12 quarters of liquidity". Citigroup estimates Ford would end next year with an "adequate cash surplus of $5.7 billion". But from the standpoint of the deepening economic downturn these numbers could change as sales drop further in 2009 and increase the losses at Ford. ...

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Amy Chua interviewed in her office on the Yale campus. She relates democracy to ethnicity and has a book on this. This creates complex situations which need to be recognized and democracy has to be crafted for that special situation. As for instance Stiglitz describes the succesful effort by Malays under Tunku Abdul Rahman in post independence Malaysia to make provisons for economic protections for the native Malay peoples within the democracy crafted for Malaysia. Carothers of the Carnegie Endowment points to post colonialism experiences in some countries. " Many of the problems that countries face are the legacy of European colonialism not United States policy. Why should democracy get blamed for failed empire?" In these countries their own unique situation, history, culture, time and place requires crafting and using free markets and democracy ideas with a healthy mix of measures the state can take to protect the weaker interests in society to achieve economic progress and fair distribution of benefits to all parts of society in the same way that the US and European countries with their different situations are doing in their individual circumstances. ...

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Anna Botin, new CEO of Banco Santander says she is acting on the three goals she set for the bank- to increase the number of independent directors on the board, bring in new management, and strengthen its capital cushion. Santander moved to increase its capital cushion to 10% under Basel III rules by selling 1.2 billion shares at 6.18 euros each to raise $8.8 billion in Jan. 2015.

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The sale buy Allianz of Dresdner Bank which it acquired in 2001 to Commerzbank will result in a bank with the largest number of retail branches. It will also make Commerzbank the leader with Mittelstand companies.

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Mr. Trump has decisively changed the Republican party. Most Republicans support Mr. Trump personally, less the Republican party. Mr. Lindsey Graham, a senator from South Carolina, says of the Republican party before Trump that it had become a bit staid, that we looked like the banker next door who may foreclose on your house. Mr. Romney epitomized that in his view. Gone are the views on deficits, on wars, and on imports and transfer of technology to China as being acceptable.  Five years from 2015 when Mr. Trump came into prominence with his new style taking on the establishments of both parties with a fierce disdain for convention, both the Bushes and the Obamas and Clintons, the Republican party is completely transformed. Registered Republicans are now 60% non college educated in 2020 compared to 50% non college educated in 2016. The Trump policies on trade putting American workers first and America first have a resounding popularity with this audience- this should be no surprise after decades of job losses and factories shipped overseas under the previous administrations for 2 decades. Most of these workers are not college educated and are white and had enjoyed a good standard of living with a high school education in American factories till the shift of American manufacturing to China destroyed good paying jobs and impoverished the American working class.  Only 30% of college educated people are registered Republicans in 2020 compared to 40% in 2016. Overwhelmingly about 90% of registered Republicans are white.  They are majority male and older but there is a significant about 40% female and 40% young population under 40 years of age. This might resemble the party put together by Missouri Congressman Harry Truman as he led the Democratic Party in 1948 with a majority of non college educated Democrats, fighting for American workers and America first in the cold war with Russia. Truman also had a rough Missouri farm language and accent comparable to Mr. Trump's rough style and language disdainful of the old establishment and new tech establishment. Both were heavily disliked by the media and both did not let this bother them in any way. Both liked facing large crowds as Truman showed in campaigning by train across the country and Trump has shown in campaign rallies run in his own way. ...

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Obama wins South Carolina Edwards home base by 55% to Clinton's 27%, and Edward's 18%. Obama wins 24% of the white vote. What happens when the white men who voted for Edwards choose between Clinton and Obama ? As many white men voted for Obama as for Clinton. And 70% of white voters in exit poll by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool of television networks say they would be satisfied if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. When asked if the country was definitely ready for a black President 25% of white voters said yes. Obama's coalition of young people, black people, and white male voters, alienated by the Clintons and working through the internet and other media outside of the establishment, may resemble the one put together in South Korea by young people to put an outsider in the President's position a few years ago.

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Daimler refocusses on the luxury car segment and with sale of Chrysler sees an immediate improvement of results. Sales are expected to exceed last years 1.25 million and earnings before interest and taxes are expected to be 8.5 billion euros for this year.

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Shiller points to a Gallup poll that shows that two thirds of Americans don't see a recovery in two or more years. He cites the economist Samuel Bowles who points to the errors of thinking that a high performing economy can be based on self-interest alone. In these lectures titled "Machiavelli's Mistake" at Yale, Bowles warns that the overuse and abuse of incentives that appeal to individual's self interest only could lead to a collective disorientation. He points to a book "Identity Economics" that carries the same theme. In that book economists George Akerloff of the University of California, Berkeley, and Rachel Kranton of the University of Maryland, show that an economy works well when peple identify with it . Their self-esteem has to be woven into the activities of the society and economy. This describes today's mood where other polls done by Wall Street Journal and NBC in January 2010 show a majority of people do not see a bright future for their children's generation. And it has become hard for ordinary Americans to identify with activities in an economy where individuals are pursuing their self interest regardless of how it benefits the society and the economy as a whole....

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Hamdi Ulukaya on how he started the Chobani brand of yogurt and the company from an idea and a postcard about a Kraft yogurt plant put up for sale in Columbus, New York. Here Hamdi is interviewed by the WSJ's Sarah Needleman. He describes how he developed the recipe with a master yogurt maker from his home country of Turkey, knowing that he had only one shot to get it right. That included pricing because Greek yogurt is costlier to make. The idea came from the postcard which made Hamdi think about the fact that always astonished him- that there was no quality yogurt in the U.S. He hired five people in the plant, had the walls painted, and the master yogurt maker as the sixth employee. The yogurt was introduced in 2007. The pricing had to be right- costing betwen $1.00 and $1.30, not too high. He decided on giving out free samples to get people introduced to the product and had a sampling truck go around the country, similiar to what Ben & Jerry's did with their ice cream in the early days. To avoid costly ad campaigns Chobani was introduced using bloggers, Facebook and Twitter to reach consumers directly....