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Fairclough describes the experience of Poland inside the EU, but with its own currency, the zloty. Poland's per capita GDP measured by purchasing power was half the EU average in 2006, it is about two thirds in 2011. Growth is expected at 4% for 2011. Poland manufactures goods using lower to medium technological inputs, such as furniture, shoes, and processed foods. The zloty has declined in value by 25% since 2008. This gives Poland a competitive edge in exports. Additonal factors are cited by one manufacturer of furniture, Forte Manufacturing, as helping it remain competitive- ability to close one of five plants, investing in improved machinery to increase productivity, quality and just-in-time deliveries, computer guided machinery, and ability to run his plants on weekends. Central bank governor, Mr. Belka, points to competitiveness as a critical factor for comfort in the eurozone. Limiting budget deficits to 3% of GDP, and the Maastricht criteria isn't all it takes. Also needed is modernizing and improving the economy, and modernizing the banking sector, says Belka. Poland does not have the debt problems of some eurozone countries because of a constitutional limit on government borrowing and deficits. Belka says Poland benefits from having its own monetary policy, ability to adjust interest rates, the zloty able to depreciate against the euro, and not having to share in cost of bailouts. There is considerable opposition in neighboring Slovakia for having to bear the cost of bailouts. Recent surveys show declining support for adopting the euro in Poland- a Sept 2011 poll showed support at 29% compared to 38% in mid-2010, opposition increased from 47% to 53%, in a poll conducted by the Polish Finance Ministry. Risks for Poland are that 75% of the country's banking assets are owned by foreign financial firms, and the potential for a spread of the eurozone slowdown with lower demand. ...

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Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke says he plans to keep interest rates low till the end of 2014. Bernanke told a news conference after a two day policy meeting of the Fed April 23-24: "It's a little premature to declare victory. Keeping interest rates low is still appropriate for our economy."

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Clive Crook points to the dangers of complacency in 2010. He reminds readers that the critical thing is as Charles Goodhart mentioned in the Financial Times, that capital and liquidity requirements must be time varying and strongly anti-cyclical. He points out that in good times when lending is expanding quickly and financial institutions are least concerned about capital, liquidity requiremets must tighten, something that is not happening under current rules. Repairs in areas of "too big to fail", separating investment banking and commercial banking, and others, will not succeed unless this principle is adopted. And this he says will be opposed by financial institutions because it reduces their growth. But this fight has to be won. It goes back to William McChesney Martin's idea of taking away the punch bowl before the party gets going.

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John Cochrane provides a no-nonsense assessment of what is happening in the euro-zone financial crisis. He says Americans should stop swallowing all that talk about "contagion" from Ireland. He puts it in plain language- there is no bailout of Ireland, this bailout is about bailing out of German and British banks that made risky loan to Irish banks and the Irish government. And he says that European governments if they choose to bailout German or British banks should do so frankly and openly and not by covering it up as a country bailout. If they did this he fears the governments and the German and British banks would face some serious questioning about their risky bets on Irish debt and the Irish property bubble. The German insistence that debt-holders would have to take a haircut, or losses on the face value of their bonds, has been diluted by the French inserting a provision that this would be after 2013 and on a case by case basis. Cochrane sees the vagueness of a case by case threat as the worst combination possible. He says this relies too much on the assessments of IMF and EU officials. The result would be for big financial institutions to bet on a bailout and to lobby these same officials hard. Cochrane's says the big culprit in the problem facing the euro-zone is short term debt. If Europeans won't let governments default, then they must insist on long-term financing of government debt. It is the short term debt of these countries that creates a crisis atmosphere. If investors become pessimistic about long-term debt, bond prices can go down temporarily without causing damage. The way a crisis happens is bad news develops, and governments having financed with short term debt need new money to pay off old debts. The way to handle this refinancing crisis is to have a large forced exchange of maturing short-term debt for long-term debt, and this is what occurs in "restructuring." And this kind of restructuring ocurred with the Brady plan that helped Latin American economies recover from a debt crisis in the late 1980's and early 1990's. This is the only viable solution, as it will be virtually impossible to bail out all euro-zone countries- Portugal, Spain, Italy and so on. For the US this is an eye opener to get its own financial house in order. US government debt is also tilted to short-term debt maturities, with the majority rolled over every year. and the Fed's quantitative easing will tilt this further to shorter term debt. And in the US, many states and local governments are in serious financial trouble....

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Vikram Pandit's style at Citigroup after 4 months, thoughful, asking lots of questions, fixing the little things that actually matter a lot, like the unwillingness of some heads of divisions to sit together in the same room, some hiring decisions and new lines of reporting and responsibiity and interaction in the organization structure that call for teamwork, discussion and collaboration. The oldtimers like Krawcheck used to clear lines of reporting are now getting used to the new culture of collaborative working. His style is first to come to grips with issues and not to come to snap decisions based on intuition, such as interviewing at length and asking tough questions at length to Ajay Banga, head of Citi's international group about the extensive defaults in Citi's consumer loan business in Japan. One of his views is that only if you get the foundation right can you talk about vision. Regarding pettiness in management and small grudges, its either going to be a partnership or you're not going to be here. some of his colleagues like James Forense say that they would take substance over form, judgement over form, any day of the week. And while he does not shy away from details like expecting lower level employees to pay for sporting event tickets Citigroup earlier gave out free, and he himself rides the subway sometimes, he has made some of the bigger decisions. Among these, getting capital from outside sources by travelling extensively abroad, urging Citigroup's board to slash the dividend for the first time in 20 years, selling off 2 peripheral units that did not belong and a third Primerica on sale also. And urged by his mentor former Treasury secretary Rubin who also used a note pad and a thinking thoughtful style like Pandit's at Treasury during the Asian banking crisis and the Mexican financial crisis, Pandit has been direct and realistic. He tells Wall Street that the fate of Citigroup is going to be decided to some extent by the duration of the environment we are going through, the twin perils of the debt-market crisis and the sluggish US economy. And that for now issues like these are going to overwhelm our actions. Pandit's father was a senior executive of one of India's leading pharmaceutical companies when the family moved to New York, so he has grown up around business, and is able to ask the question quite sincerely and matter of factly of his managers at the beginning of every meeting. "What are you doing with the shareholder's money?" After which come the torrent of well thought out questions, probing deeper each time, especiually where issues are festering for a long time, and remain unresolved. ...

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The shift of offshore manufacturing jobs from China to Mexico in 2014-2015.

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One big concern says Nancy Keates of the WSJ about the National Association of Realtors, is that the organization collects and puts out objective data about home sales, and at the same time provides a commentary on the statistics. It also has a mission to advance the interests of its members. There are 2.6 million licensed real estate agents, and NAR represents about 1.3 million of these real estate agents. Would the real estate agents and the NAR tolerate an economist who raised concerns about the boom in lending? David Lereah, is former chief economist for the NAR ,and worked there from 2000 to April 2007. He remained upbeat throughout these years, even when the market was headed downwards. And the way he sees it he was doing for 7 years everything the NAR wanted him to do, and he was pressured to issue these upbeat reports. Critics called him "Baghdad Dave", after a Iraqi information minister for his false upbeat reports even when the war on the Iraqi side was lost. And a Credit Suisse analyst called him Liar-eah for some of these upbeat assesments, when things were clearly going wrong. The way Nancy Keates sees it this economist was eager to profit himself in the boom years. He was an economics Professor at Rutgers, at the University of Virginia, and later an economist and regulator at the Federal Deposit and Insurance Corporation. He himself bought condos 2 in Washington in 2003 and 2004, and one each in Tampa, Richmond, Va. and Alexandria, Va. and Naples, Florida. Owning by 2006 six condos worth between $150,000 and $400,000 a condo. He had an expensive lifestyle says his wife, with a big house worth $780,000, a country club, sports fishing boat. So in some ways suggests this reporter, he was caught up in the boom himself with his investments and the demands of a expensive lifestyle, with little room left for independent opinion and analysis. This is a striking example of things gone wrong, with all the meticulousness and comprehensiveness with which data is collected having its value destroyed by the lack of strict objectivity in the analysis. And the intrusion of strong personal interest bias in one direction making the destruction of objectivity complete. Looking at the economists at companies and associations, there is a subtle bias in operation that needs to be discounted by CEO's and association heads, a bias for giving the CEO's better and optimistic assessments on a consistent basis. An example is the way a large number of economists see the recovery taking place in 2009. Another related example is the sales forecasts for the Detroit auto companies that continued to assume sales in the 16-17 million a year rate into the latter half of 2008, even after the Bear Stearns collapse in March and the increasing foreclosures suggested something was amiss. All with horrendous consequences for the companies or industries involved, and the US and global economies....

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A year after its fire-sale to JP Morgan Chase, Bear Stearns the company, and the name and the culture, disappears completely from sight. Of 14,000 employees only 5000 remain, and they are part of the 225,000 employees at JP Morgan Chase. And yet Bear Stearns fate is better than another name and culture that disappeared, that of Lehman Brothers. Capitalism's many faces, this one is still staring down at firms in bankruptcy and firms in liquidation, companies as large as GM and Chrysler that face bankruptcy in coming months.

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The lessons from the British auto industry which ran through $16.5 billion in rescue money in the 70's and 80's before collapsing as German and Japanese automakers took over its markets. One of the problems was the failure of labor relations, the other was shoddy quality just when the Germans and Japanese were improving theirs aggressively. The labor relations are a problem at the Detroit automakers and quality has also been an issue with Detroit playing catchup again and again for three decades. Management's lack of vision and leadership in fuel efficiency may have struck a fatal blow, and the concentration on overseas markets at GM without foresight and vision for the American market may now be called a failed strategy. British auto experts say that Leyland controlled 36% of the British market even in the 70's before gradually going out of business and its start was even before General Motors.

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As U.S. carmakers vehicle sales recover and the Japanese carmakers go through a slowdown as a result of disruptions from the earthquake, the U.S. and the Japanese carmakers find their situations reversed. Japanese carmakers are facing vehicle shortages in the U.S.. Detroit carmakers see the opportunity to make gains in market share during this period, till Toyota and Honda return to normal. Detroit carmakers have also been affected by the earthquake related supplier disruptions, but to a much smaller extent. Chrysler expects to produce 50,000 to 100,000 fewer vehicles as a result of disruptions, according to Marchionne. Chrysler, the weakest of the Detroit carmakers, has staged a recovery under Fiat's Marchionne. One hurdle was the high interest payments- $348 million in the first quarter of 2011- on the $7.5 billion borrowed from U.S. and Canadian governments. Chrysler increased revenue by 35% to $13.1 billion, with global sales of vehicles up 18% to 394,000, and profits of $116 million in the first quarter 2011. The market situation is still precarious for several reasons. Sales of pickup trucks and larger vehicles- which still constitute a major portion of vehicles sales of Detroit carmakers- are vulnerable to higher gas prices. The Japanese carmakers have large cash reserves for new investments, and will introduce new models as they recover from the earthquake. In the past Detroit carmakers used incentives to maintain sales, which diluted profits. Jeremy Anwyl, chief executive of Edmunds.com, says Detroit carmakers have an opportunity to get back to a situation where they can compete with foreign carmakers on a level playing field, with better market acceptance and higher prices. GM says it will increase prices by about $123 on average to cover higher materials costs. The risk will continue to be in the product mix of a higher proportion of pickup trucks and larger vehicles in a volatile oil price environment....

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Many of the young people joining terrorist groups come from Tunisia. A security expert tells DW.com that the radicalization of youth in Tunisia began with the overthrow of Ben Ali and his government in Tunisia at the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011. Ben Ali's regime detained many of the people in opposition groups, leading to the release from prisons during the revolution. The radicalization of Tunisia's youth began during this period, according to this report. The Benghazi attacks on American embassy from Libyans opposing Gaddafi who had crossed the border into Mali, also followed a similar pattern after the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya. In Libya many radicalized people in opposition groups were released from detention following Gaddafi's overthrow. The current democratically elected government of Tunisian president Beji Essebsi is monitoring the situation. This report describes the experience of some Tunisians in terrorist groups who were brought back home from other countries by their families. EU countries and the U.S. supported the Arab Spring but the aftermath was not well managed leading to further upheaval, and now terrorism. Some of this happened as the governments changed in the U.S. with Obama replacing Bush in the U.S. and Hollande replacing Sarkozy in France, and showing little interest in managing the aftermath or helping the new governments in Libya, Tunisia and other countries make a smooth transition with aid, security assistance, and maintaining the basic services provided by government. A well formulated and conducted effort from the West could have prevented the worst effects that are seen in 2014-2016. The costs to contain the crisis that has ensued are far greater than what would have been needed in material resources and expert assistance from the developed countries of Europe and the U.S.- without military involvement as there was a general sense of being lifted from years of dictatorship in Arab North Africa, and general sense of goodwill towards the West during the Arab Spring.   ...

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Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, Greece's second largest party, is interviewed by WSJ's Bret Stephens. Tsipras describes the problems inside Greece. He describes the bribery in healthcare, tax evasion, burden of taxes on the middle class and honest citizens, a large and inefficient bureaucracy. In its current state Greece would build up debt and deficits all over again if the debts were forgiven tomorrow, says Tsipras. He is for Greece remaining in the eurozone. Tsipras understands the problems Germans have with putting money into Greece with the current state of economic management and lack of conscience of its elite, and why they see this as not fair. He suggests as a model for solving the Greece debt crisis, the London Conference of 1953 forgiving half of Germany's debts and putting the rest on a 30 year scheduled repayment. This would have to come with results in cutting bureaucracy, reducing corruption, and efficient tax collection for Greece democracy to work.

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Mortimer Zuckerman of U.S. News and World Report magazine expresses his disappointment at the Obama administration's performance. He points to a "competency crisis" of the Obama administration and the President. On the Simpson-Bowles Commission's recommendations and President Obama's complete silence on its proposals, Zuckerman like other observers expresses strong disappointment. He says that he and other early supporters are no longer excited by the novelty of his candidacy and his presidency. Obama's single minded focus on getting re-elected is disturbing for Zuckerman.

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The northeastern region of Brazil, the poorest region of Brazil, has benefitted from the economic expansion in Brazil. The region's GDP went up by 4.2% a year for the last ten years compared to 3.6% for Brazil. Bolsa Familia, President Lula's anti-poverty programme has benefitted the northeast, but the Getulio Vargas research institute shows three quarters of growth coming from earnings and expansion of export based agriculture in soyabeans and other products and from mining export industries. Projects in the northeast include development of the port and industrial area around Suape. A petrochemical plant, a shipyard and a Petrobras refinery, are under construction. A new railway will link Suape to the interior. Much of the development is for export industries in soyabeans and iron ore, and for the rail and port infrastructure that supports these exports to China. As a result the development looks similiar to what is happening in Australia with the huge expansion in rail and port infrastructure in that country to support iron ore and other mining exports to China. Any slow down in China will affect Brazil as the IMF has recently warned, because of an overdependence on commodity exports to China. Alexandre Rands of local Datametrica consultancy points to this when he says that infrastructure booms while helpful are not enough to sustain development. Big firms train the workers they need which is how Brazilian companies cope with a weak educational system. Schools in the northeast are however not getting the financial support to improve education, a situation that affects Brazil as a whole, but is even more evident in the northeast....

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Average return on U.S. IPO's for 2011 is a loss of 18% for institutional investors getting in on day one according to Dealogic analysis of 23 IPO's. For small investors the losses are 34%.

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White House visitors database shows lobbyists have frequent access to the White House. On one January day, Jan. 17, 2012, lobbyists came with the CEO's of their companies to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue at 9 am for roundtable with President Obama. The CEO's are on the president's Jobs Concil. At 1 pm representatives from the meat industry arrive. And at 4 pm a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs comes for a meeting with Alan Krueger, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. Its a fairly routine day.

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China's premier, Wen Jiabao, opened the National People's Congress, annual meeting of the Chinese parliament, by saying that China had lowered its growth rate to 7.5% from 8%. GDP growth for 2011 was 9.2%. Wen set an inflation target of 4%. The CPI index increased by 5.4% in 2011. Wen set 14% growth target for M2, China's broadest measure of money supply.

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Oversupply and price wars in China's solar power industry in 2012.

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Joe Nocera of the New York Times, says that it is the Attorney Generals of the 50 states in the USA, that have taken up the rights of homeowners, not the federal authorites. He points out that the Obama administration, the Treasury department and the federal agencies, have failed miserably in getting the banks and servicers to take loan modification seriously. It was the attorney generals of the states that were with homeowners from the beginning, to prevent predatory lending and outright fraud. Until they were stopped by federal bank regulators, who sided with the banks in court. The subprime lending crisis might never have ocurred, says Nocera, had the states not been obstructed in this way. As the subprime lending mounted, the state AG's were talking to people in their communities, and knew the reality on the ground. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision, two primary regulators of the banking industry, saw their role as protecting banks from consumers rather than protecting consumers. Professor Prentiss Cox, of the University of Minnesota Law School, who was an assistant attorney general in Minnesota in charge of consumer enforcement, says federal regulators should have been listening to us, instead of trying to shut us down....