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Iraqi production now up to 2.5 million barrels a day according to International Energy Agency, helping to ease some concerns about supplies worldwide for winter. About 2 million barrels a day in the southern province by South Oil Company is fairly stable. Its in the north where a lot of the supply has been erratic because a pipeline that carries the oil through Turkey to the Mediteranean has faced repeated sabotage. As security has been beefed up along the pipeline production in the north has reached 500,000 barrels a day. Poor oil field maintenance and lack of security and underinvestment are the main problems. For example even though about $2.4 billion is set aside for capital investment for 2007 only 30% of it has been spent so far. And the $2 billion allocated for 2008 is way short of whats needed.

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How crude oil flows are affected by the narrow waterway Straits of Hormuz if blocked, Kuwait's lack of storage, Iraqi production going from 4.3 million barrels a day to 1.3 million. China could use more coal, it has 300 days of oil inventory, US is self sufficient. Asia will have problems- India, Japan and South Korea.  Europe also faces a shortage of oil supplies. How will this be tackled? 

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It reduces oil prices a little bit so why not let India buy Russian oil for 30 days- Scott Bessent announcement March 5 2025. Bessent said for the US- "India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of US oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran's attempt to take global energy hostage."

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Saudi Arabia continued to follow a policy of high oil production in 2016, and reported that it produced 10.67 million barrels a day in July 2016. Iran is producing at a pre-sanction level of 4 million barrels a day. 2017 oil demand prediction by OPEC is at growth of 1.15 million barrels a day. Experts says that the interests of Iran and the Saudis may be converging to reduce production as they face low oil prices. Iran needs to make large investments and Saudis face budget cuts with low oil prices. They point to this cooperation being temporary as there are issues of competing politics in the region, and beyond that both countries seek to expand their market share.

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French nuclear weapons numbers and new strategy integrated with Germany- Macron explains this from a Navy base in Crozon, France, March 2, 2026. With wars in Ukraine and in Iran Macron says he will expand the French nuclear weapons from 290 warheads, and starts a consultative strategy approach to work with Germany to extend France's nuclear weapons to cover other states like Germany and coordinate with Germany on military exercises for European defense. This also includes Britain.

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Several military bases used in World War II in Greenland and now in disuse are being activated by Northern Command's Gen. Guillot April 6 2026. The US is only required to "consult with and inform" the Danes under a 1951 Agreement updated in 2004. On April 6 DJT stated that NATO was a paper tiger and that the Europeans had not offered to help the US in the Iran War because of their position on Greenland.

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Efforts to setup an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria based on the model set by the Autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq. An opportunity for Kurdish people to be able to live with their own language and culture within the framework of a federal state in Iraq and Syria. The Kurdish Autonomous region based in Erbil has acted as a mediator between Sunni and Shiite interests and worked within the framework of a federal state in Iraq. Turkey still fears the minority Kurds within its borders and seeks to assimilate them into Turkey. The government of prime minister Erdogan has shifted the political stance with Kurds by seeking Kurdish support in elections. There is the example in Europe and Asia of people in certain regions working within a federal state that tolerates the culture and language of the people within the state- the Catalans and Basque people in Spain are one example. This has come after years of repression of language and culture, and it has only changed as a new spirit of tolerance has prevailed in Europe after the pain of the period between the wars. A range of other communities with distinct language and culture have learned to function and prosper within a federal state- French Quebec within Canada is another example in N. America. In Asia, the best example is India, which is a federal state with many languages and cultures, varied enough to be amazing. A properly functioning democracy and economic system, with educational systems that support tolerant attitudes, provides the framework for this to happen. It is challenging at times but it is a better alternative to generations of conflict....

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The NYT report that provides details on what Iran agreed to in the deal reached in Geneva on November 23, 2013 with western nations and the P5+1 that includes Russia and China. It provides a 6 month period in which additional steps to secure that Iran's program is limited to peaceful uses can be achieved. It also slows the Iranian nuclear weapons program by about one month according to this report, and gives additional warning if Iran moves in that direction. Not enough to dismantle Iran's nuclear enrichment program which is what Israel, Saudi Arabia want to see. France has called for tougher steps to limit the nuclear program in prior negotiating sessions. U.S. president Obama has looked for a compromise which would provide the opportunity to do this at a later stage, possibly through a series of smaller agreements. The sticking point is Iran's insistence that it has the right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes like other signatories to the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty. This may be the only agreement that could be reached at this time, leaving tougher negotiations for a later stage when more trust and credibility is achieved, without the risk of jeopardizing a future agreement that goes further and seriously tackles the problem....

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Juleanna Glover points to the need for financing of the Kurdistan regional government in Iraq as the central government in Baghdad has failed to make payments to the KRG for its share of national oil income. The KRG would receive 17% of Iraq's national oil income under negotiated agreements, but only $2 billion of $12 billion owed to KRG has been transferred in 2015. The Kurds also have to support 1.8 million refugees from Syria and Iraq with the ongoing civil war. The World Bank predicts a shortfall in funding for KRG of $1.5 billion in 2015, and it needs a $2.4 billion bridge loan. Peshmarga forces it is reported have not been paid for 3 months even as the Kurds have borne a disproportionate share of the burden in the war.

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Many prior pieces focussed on extravagant gasoline consumption in Iran because of subsidized prices. A recent piece showed how Iranians protested against the rationing of gasoline. Iran needs more refineries as its refinery capacity is limited- no mention on how Iran is tackling refinery constraints. The subsidy is huge as it 34 cents vs $2 on world markets, it also costs Iran $5 billion which it can use to build more refineries. This piece shows Venezuela's willingness to supply Iran in the event Iran cannot depend on supply from India, Netherlands, France, UAE and other suppliers.