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Behaviours of young people going to beaches and bars, ignoring social distancing guidelines and not wearing masks is leading to a rise in the number of daily cases in Europe. This includes an illegal rave in a Berlin park. The incidence of coronavirus is now 19.6 per 100,000 people for persons ages 20 to 29 compared to 9.7 per 100,000 for the French population as a whole. Germany has recorded 900 new cases daily, France 1000, and Spain 2000 as a result of these youth behaviours during the last week.

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Spain and Italy, the New York region, delayed their response, just as Japan and Sweden are doing today, resulting in the severity of the pandemic in these countries and regions. This pandemic is showing the earlier you act to lockdown, quarantine, use contact tracing and isolation of clusters method, the better it is with fewer people infected and fewer deaths. This is the single most important lesson of this crisis, which health experts worldwide, including Dr Birx, head of the White House Response, and Dr. Fauci, never get tired of repeating.

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Austin Goolsbee says the overvalued currencies of Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal and the lack of growth under austerity plans proposed for these countries create impossible odds for resolution of the financial problems in these countries. The German position is that profligate spending and irresponsible accounting in Greece, and structural issues in Italy ranging from entitlement spending to tax evasion, need to be resolved.

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With the Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratio CAPE at 26 for the U.S. in 2014, and the CAPE in Japan at 21, UK, Italy, Spain at about half that in the U.S., experts say international diversification is a good idea.

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Schmemann ponders over the situation in Spain with Catalonia and Scotland with Britain, where national identity arouses pride and there is a strong sentiment for autonomy or independence. He says the situation in Slovakia which sought its own identity and separated from Czechoslovakia, but sought an otherwise peaceful status in the EU, should not be confused with the nationalism that has aroused conflicts in other regions and periods. He puts Scots interest in autonomy or independence in this light, as simply seeking its own future in the EU, with closer attention being paid to the local interests in Scotland.

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England's batsman Alastair Cook talks about the pitch in the Third Test at Ahmedabad. He says he would have had considerable difficulty facing the spin bowlers on that pitch in Ahmedabad. With a spinner in his groove, and men all around the bat, Cook says its hard to even get off the mark, with the noise from the stadium and constant scrutiny of the batsman's technique.

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States in Germany that have imposed quarantine and lockdown are Bavaria, Saarland, Rhineland-Palatinate., Hamburg, Lower Saxony, and Hesse. People are asked to stay inside unless going to the doctor or supermarket.  Bavaria where Munich is located reported few violations. Chancellor Merkel is meeting with state premiers on March 21 to decide on a nationwide lockdown as in Spain and Italy. 

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European Union countries, Britain and the US face the risk of a resurgence of coronavirus through the Delta variant and other variants. The Delta variant detected in India is 40% to 80% more transmissible than the Alpha variant detected in the UK, with the Alpha variant 50% more transmissible than the original coronavirus that originated in Wuhan.    Virologists in Italy feel they are flying blind at this time because of the lack of genetic sequencing in Italy, Spain, France and across most European Union countries. The UK has done genetic sequencing on 27% of recent covid positive tests. The figure drops to 1% for Italy and is tiny for most of the EU countries including Spain and France. Without genetic sequencing it is hard to predict and take steps. Another problem in the EU is that the southern economies Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, Croatia are dependent on summer tourism for the economy. The UK economy can handle a delay to a full opening for 6 weeks without serious impact to the economy, says WSJ. Southern European economies can afford only short delays to full reopening. Croatia acted as a door to spread of coronavirus into central Europe when Germans and Austrians went to vacation spots in Croatia in summer 2020. This situation could be happening again in 2020 with British and other tourists visiting vacation areas in Portugal, and Germans visiting Greece and other summer tourism spots. Portugal's national health institute says the Delta variant represents 60% of new cases in the area around Lisbon based on early data. The government of Portugal is facing criticism for letting a Champions League soccer final to take place in Porto, Portugal between two English teams. Thousands of English fans watched the game at the stadium. Other problems are in relaxing of mask rules in France and Italy, last week in France and in the coming week in Italy. French nightclubs open July 9 without mask requirement. Germany is maintaining some social distancing measures and this includes mandating medical masks in closed public spaces and on public transport. Half of French, Italians, Germans are vaccinated and quarter fully vaccinated. Yet the gaps of unvaccinated people is large enough to cause serious concern of another wave. The relaxation of mask rules- the entire stadium in Budapest was packed for a recent game between Hungary and Italy for a soccer Euro 2021 game with no masks to be seen. Stadiums played a key role for the spread of the original coronavirus in Italy with a game in Bergamo, Italy, in the area near Milan. All this makes health officials concerned about the risks of still another wave of the coronavirus.   ...

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P/E ratios for stocks in the U.S., Europe and the emerging market countries in 2013. A large gap between the U.S. and Europe for longer term returns, 22 for the U.S. compared to 10 for southern European countries such as Spain, Italy and Ireland. This uses the cyclically adjusted returns based on the Shiller P/E which takes average ten year earnings adjusted for inflation. Using earnings expectations for the next year the U.S. P/E is 13.5 compared to 12.7 for developed markets including Germany and the UK.

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Poland's collapsing birth rate at 1.0 compared 1.62 in France another Catholic country, and Spain's 1.1, Germany's 1.3- 2.1 is the replacement rate per woman. This has profound consequences for Poland. The future workforce will be 20% smaller compared to 4% smaller in France in 2 decades. Many schools will close in rural areas which are hit hard. There are more deaths than births in many small towns. At this rate 1.7 million homes will become vacant in 2 decades.This report looks at Warsaw as well as rural areas near Belarus where the war has created much anxiety. The population of Poland will shrink from 36 million to 31 million over three decades if these trends continue. By 2000 the birhtrate dropped from 2.1 to 1.3 and the government introduced payments of 190 euros per child per month and expanded the childcare system. But this has not helped as the rate dropped to 1.03 in 2025. Under the Communist system industries were located in small towns and men stayed there while women moved to cities leading to a mismathch for men and women. The economic boom that doubled per capita income led to less interest in having children. The economy was supported by long hours of work which led to less interest in bearing children for women. Other reasons are a lack of interest in sharing and making the effort, the cost of raising children in a hyper competitive society like South Korea where births are at 0.7. ...

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Spain's new monarch, Felipe, brings a background of being carefully trained for the new position say most people in Spain from experts to taxi drivers, and brings educational training to understand the complex economic and constitutional issues facing modern Spain. He studied law at the Autonomous University of Madrid, and did his graduate education at Georgetown University in international relations. One columnist and constitutional scholar, Carreras Serra, says the prince has helped bring focus in meetings with government officials, and can skillfully conduct discussions on difficult topics of economics or constitutional law. His abilities are sorely needed as Spain navigates through a period of economic hardship with high unemployment, especially among the young. Relating to young people will be key test for Felipe and the monarchy. He starts off with considerable goodwill as 61% of Spaniards polled have a favorable opinion of him. Two leftist parties in Spain which view the monarchy as unnecessary for Spain won 18% of the vote in European parliamentary elections in May 2014, with the two main parties of post war Spain, the Partido Popular and the Socialist party, polling below 50% (a similiar situation in UK and France), provided a signal for Juan Carlos's abdication at 76. Spain's modernization was made possible by putting behind divisions from the traumatic twentieth century conflicts, and continued economic progress will require the same degree of skill and renewed committment from all parts of the political spectrum in Spain. Because of liberal tendencies existing in a conservative culture and history, Spain's best years and progress depend on keeping the social and political fabric together without divisions, and the monarchy earning and reearning its trust -side by side with the main political parties and young people seeking a better future- to keep it this way through coming generations....

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Many Italian university graduates lack proficiency in foreign languages or computer skills. Lack of on adequate on the job training programs compounds the problems as graduates are not able to pick up the skills at work. This discourages hiring of new graduates, especially graduates outside of engineering and technical areas. Technical graduates face another problem- the slow level of technological improvement and application in Italian business relative to Germany or the UK. R&D spending in Italy is only 0.7% compared to 1.4% in France and 2% in Germany, according to the OECD. Only 41% of Italian university graduates work in specialized areas, 44% in Spain, compared to 60% in the UK and Germany. Being overqualified is common for young people, or lacking other business type skills with a overemphasis on the humanities.

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A survey of immigrants all over the world asked about their new living standards shows Mexico at the top with Taiwan, Portugal and Spain. And Kuwait at the bottom. Surprise is that New Zealand ranks next to Kuwait at the bottom. The reason is the high cost of living and jobs not paying enough, fewer opportunities, a growing rich poor divide. New Zealand ranks high in the natural environment and climate, yet the cost of living is too high in relation to salaries. New Zealand ranked below global averages in worklife- in feeling fairly paid for work, seeing purpose in work, or liking workhours. By comparison Australia ranks ninth from the top- for the economy, compensation and work hours. 

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The European Union had 1.14 million asylum seekers in 2023. In addition to Syria and Afghanistan, Pakistan, there are asylum seekers from Venezuela and Columbia and Turkey. Compare this with 4.4 million Ukrainians granted temporary protection in the EU and not considered as asylum seekers since the war began. There is a significant increase in asylum seekers in Germany and smaller increases in France and other countries. Germany has labor shortages. About 23% of 1.14 million or 334,000 asylum seekers for Germany. Next is France at 167,000, Spain at 162,000, Italy at 137,000. About 50% of asylum seekers have been allowed and the rest rejected. EU has a new asylum law that processes asylum with faster vetting, more detention centers and quicker deportation.

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Pedro Sanchez's efforts to defuse tensions over Catalonia and still form a government in Spain, without alienating Spanish voters following a tight election. Sanchez needs support from 24 of 25 members of parliament from separatist parties of Catalonia to reach the 176 he needs to form a government. Sanchez calls his efforts to reduce tensions between Barcelona and Madrid "dejudicializing" the process instead of "amnesty," and has been able to govern with support of other parties. In the July election his PSOE Socialist Workers Party was 1.4% percentage points behind the centrist Partido Popular. The PP leader Feijoo has failed to form a government and Sanchez will have a chance to form a government in October.

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As Katya Adler of BBC explains here Catalonia's crisis is less about independence than about populism. Catalonia is already one of the most autonomous regions in Spain. Catalans want to be able to choose their future with dignity, yet on independence opinion is divided in Catalonia. Prime Minister Rajoy has not handled the crisis well says Adler, when he had many things in his favor including EU support and support under the Constitution. Police action and the negative coverage have hurt Spain. Adler also points out that Rajoy and Puigdemont may be doing this for political purposes to increase their support. Rajoy's government failed to win support for the 2018 budget as it is a minority government with thin support in parliament. Puigdemont may also have overreacted and called the referendum  without considering this carefully. and having a realistic plan. Both politicians are criticized for corruption in their parties. Catalonia wants to see more investment and revenues sent back to its region from taxes sent to the federal government making financial issues prominent more than grievances about use of Catalan language. ...

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Enel, Italy's energy company, plans to invest $83 billion over the next decade to 2030 to increase renewable energy capacity from 45 gigawatts to 120 gigawatts. Renewable energy's share is expected to increase from 27% to 33% by 2025, according to IEA. Europe has committed to spend a third of its $750 billion recovery fund on addressing climate issues. ENel market share would increase from 2.8% to 5% by the end of this decade. With Iberdrola of Spain Enel was early in making investments and is the largest company in renewable energy in Europe.

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Germany is now in the same situation as France, Spain and Britain during the second wave with over 500 deaths daily in the first week of December. The partial lockdown with closing of the leisure sector and keeping work open, and retail shops open has not helped keep the virus in check as hoped. Christmas is an important holiday period in Germany and crowds continue to form in many shopping areas spreading the virus. Chancellor Merkel lacks authority in a pandemic as the law says states have to decide how best to tackle a pandemic.

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Problems of finding a job in Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy for younger people. A sense of a lost generation, as more people are fighting for fewer job opportunities. The situation is worsened by austerity measures and the deepening economic crisis in these countries. Many young people have moved in with their parents, and others are emigrating to northern European countries. A former Italian prime minister, Giuliano Amato, tells the Italian newspaper Corriere della Serra, that youth protests against university reform in Italy are also about the general lack of opportunities- "against the general situation in which the older generations have eaten the future of the younger ones." Here the NYT tells the story of Francesca Esposito, 29, the daughter of a fireman and a school teacher, the first generation of her family to attend college. She has an Italian law degree and a master's from Germany, and has fluency in five languages. She worked for some time as an unpaid trainee at Italy's social security adminsitration, till she quit. She has found it extremely difficult to find a paying job. Coral Gomez, 33, of Madrid, who has a PhD. in humanities lives with her parents because no steady jobs can be found. Coral earns 600 euros as a children's drama teacher. She says she will be going to Costa Rica to teach at a university....

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This editorial in The Guardian points out that only a tiny fraction of the British people, merely 160,000 members of the Tory Conservative party are for the last 2 months in July and August 2022 determining what kind of government Britain should have at a time of cost of living crisis. Most of these 160,000 are male, upper class, older and propertied. No government action is taking place to protect people from cost increases. In France the energy price increase is limited to 4% by the government, Spain is doing the same to limit cost increases. And in Britain Ofgem regulator has allowed the price cap for energy to triple relative to a year ago and no minister there available to answer the public's questions, kind of surreal.

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This article in the Economist magazine says the initial criteria for the euro currency were fudged to let southern European countries with weak finances into the euro region. The result was that Italy, Spain and Portugal were allowed in, followed later by Greece. This was a critical design defect for the euro currency. It says French president Mitterand accepted German unification and German president Kohl gave up the Deutsche Mark in exchange for the Euro, under the 1992 Maastricht Treaty that set up the euro currency. The other flaw was the lack of a bail out mechanism if governments needed help, the ECB not designed to tackle this, and the central banks of each country not capable of tackling this on their own. With the lack of devaluation option to address inflation, and drop in competitiveness of some countries, the mechanisms to address economic problems were not put in place- it says because political union was seen as happening earlier but never happened. The French are seen as more interested in pursuing closer economic integration, with Germany not as keen until budget discipline is established first. Germany also looks at immigration as a critical area in which agreement has to be reached. As a result the euro currency is likely to continue with some of its current problems, yet with improvements in many areas such as budget discipline and lessons learned from the eurozone crisis in Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal.   ...

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The ECB president Draghi announces an interest rate cut, lowering the interest rate in the eurozone to 0.15% from 0.25%. He also lowered the rate on overnight bank deposits at the ECB to a negative 0.10%, to encourage banks to lend at a time when credit is tight for businesses in the eurozone. The eurozone faces a risk of deflation with low growth in the eurozone economies. Popular discontent was reflected in eurozone elections in France, UK, Greece and Spain.