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German chancellor Scholz is making a 2 day trip to the US to meet president Biden. There is a surge in discussion on looking for a way out of the Ukraine war after meeting between US's Blinken and Russia's Lavrov at the G20 meeting in India. India is pushing for both sides to engage in talks to end the war. Brazil has also offered to mediate to bring an end to the conflict. 

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Huge losses sustained by sovereign wealth funds. Estimated $350 billion for Gulf foreign reserve funds and SWF's, according to RGE Monitor's Rachel Ziemba, or 27% of assets. Sovereign Wealth funds are either using their funds for supporting their local banks as in the Gulf areas, or buying back stakes of cash strapped western banks like RBS in the case of China. Russia, China and other countries are using their SWF's for stimulus spending. And Russia, Gulf economies that are dependent on oil prices, are looking at possible sale of foreign assets at oil prices between $50 and a deterioration to $25. Only China has a surplus that is sustained through the last quarter of 2008, but this is changing quickly as imports pick up after the stimulus kicks in, and exports drop precipitiously in 2010. South Korea and Russia have also learned of the need to have liquid safe investments preferably in dollars in the current crisis, as they have learned how large capital outflows can get in a short time. And the US is not looking at these large capital inflows from overseas as a benevolent thing, because it overvalues American assets, and leads to all sorts of distortions in liquidity and pricing of risk that contributed to the current crisis. In short the whole situation with SWF's has a suprising ending, as with everything in the current crisis, nothing worked out as expected or planned....

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Foreign Minister Wadephul of Germany in India for talks on a free trade agreement that would double trade volume to $64 billion- September 2025. It is notable that German Foreign Minister is in New Delhi to improve relations and shift to larger trade relationship with India at the very time US under pressure from Europe and Germany, France is pushing India to shift away from buying Russian oil to other sources. Each side is aware of the complexities in the relationships. In the long run Germany under Merz will after the experience of China's support of Russian invasion in Ukraine, make the changes that never happened under Merkel- making India its major trade partner in Asia. By 2030 Germany trade's with India could exceed $100 billion.

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The investigation of Special Counsel Robert Mueller now looks into president Trump's business interests and efforts made to secure financing and permits to build a Trump Tower in Moscow. This comes from information provided by Mr. Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen. The timing of these contacts show this to be taking place about the time of the presidential campaign and earlier statements to be misleading.

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Air defense systems for Ukraine are explained in this video in DW.com. US, Germany and France are sending air defense systems as Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure have escalated.

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Former Special Counsel Mueller answers questions in the U.S. Congress related to his investigation of the president's election campaign and interference by Russia. Mueller continues to say nothing exonerates the president for his actions. And insists that he did not act on his investigation findings as a sitting president cannot be indicted according to Justice Department rules. Only Congress can do this and it was upto Congress to act. Mueller also replied in the affirmative that in this case the investigation could continue and action could be taken on findings after the president leaves office. The 74 year old lawyer calm demeanour appeared to be under strain as he handled question after question from Democratic Congressmen. The appearance of Mr. Mueller only brought the details about the flawed election process and poor judgement of officials at U.S. government agencies and of the candidates themselves, to a larger audience. It left the issue unresolved, with new questions, and no one looking good in the process. ...

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The U.S. Deputy Attorney General, Rod Rosenstein, defends the Mueller investigation into Russian meddling in elections in a Congressional hearing. He says most of the employees at the agency with very few exceptions are honest and trustworthy. He is working with Mueller to ensure that the investigation is not affected by the political affiliations of any of its prosecutors. Rosenstein told Congress that Mueller had acted appropriately to keep politics out of the investigation. Prosecutors found to have political leanings have been removed from the investigation.

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This WSJ editorial board opinion lists all the reasons for continuing the war in Ukraine without answering the question raised by Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg about- what US interest calls for losing an entire generation of Ukrainians and Russians young men to war? The US as a beacon of hope in the world requires asking this question. Kellogg is a 80 year old veteran who has seen hand to hand combat in Vietnam and survived, attended the US Army College in Kansas, and has decades of experience in the Army, and was National Security Adviser. The US should ask questions about what is its right role? NATO was started in 1949 against the wall coming up in Eastern Europe under Communism, the Warsaw Pact was formed to oppose NATO in 1955. Yet after the Warsaw Pact was  disbanded by July 1991 after the fall of Communism there was no effort to reassess forming a new architecture that is based on the new situation. Shouldn't NATO have been replaced after Warsaw Pact was no longer in existence? Russia was too weak in the 1990's and till 2010 and there was no one to make the case for a new defense architecture. And no effort to reconsider and see that there is no fallback to positions from the Cold War and before that to British Empire positions about protecting its dominions in India and Asia from Russia. Considering that Russia is the only major nuclear power other than US in 2025, and within the years of a pandemic that destroyed an entire generation of older people- American, Russian, Chinese and Indian.   ...

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The difficulties of unwinding war stimulus that has increased jobs and wages in poorer regions of Russia, and the problems with unwinding a war economy, are discussed here by experts from Russia, the US and Germany. Other aspects include what to do with hundreds of thousands of new recruited soldiers who would be unemployed during a period when the economy's growth has slowed and wage growth is slowing. In 2024 new recruits were given 1 years bonus and were being attracted in large numbers. JD Vance mentioned this to the new Pope in discussions, and this report says even Putin does not know how best to unwind this war economy. Vance told Pope Leo XIV -“I’m not sure that Vladimir Putin himself has a strategy for how to unwind the war.” This is the view also from an expert at the Free University of Berlin, as rapidly demobilizing a large army poses its own problems. Russia could export the arms from new arms factories and keep people employed. This option is difficult as many African countries buy on credit and Asian other buyers may seek the latest technologies, others face financial difficulties or like India are diversifying and shifting to local manufacturing. ...

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The Times looks at troop presence for NATO in the Baltic States, Poland and Romania as the US faces down a Russian threat to Ukraine and a possible imminent invasion. It says contingency planning has been carried out and the US and NATO are prepared.

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Russian economy is faltering under the strain of the global financial crisis. The stock market is plunging, with the RTS Index down 19% on October 6, 2008, and the market down 60% since the high in May, 2008. Construction spending is winding down. Th economy growth rate was 8.1% in 2007 but its slipping. If oil prices hit $50 and they were already at $78 on October 10, 2008, then says Anders Aslund at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, there will be a sharp decline in the growth rate. Moscow analysts say the growth rate could drop to 4%. For Americans Russia may seem remote excpt for investors. But in a global economy there are connections to emerging markets and Russia is one big emerging market, next to China, India and Brazil. When General Motors shares dropped 31% and Ford's 22% on one day on October 9, 2008, the news that spooked the markets was ofcourse a credit watch and questions about liquidity from Standard and Poors rating agency, but alsoimportant was that the one bright spot for GM and Ford in Europe and in Russia in particular was disappearing as GM sales declined in Europe and in Russia. In the prior 12 months GM had seen sales jump by 40% in Russia giving it 10% of a car market that passed Germany recently as the largest car market in Europe. Couple of important things about Russia. Russians today are big spenders, savings are small and Russians do not trust their banks so bank deposits are very low. Household deposits are equivalent of 17% of GDP, compared with 45% in the USA. Only 4% of Russians trust commercial banks according to a poll by National Financial Research Agency in Moscow. So Russia depends on the outside world for much odf the cash flowing through its financial system. Foreigners purchased two thirds of the $170 billion in bonds isued by Russian companies and foreign banks put up half of the accumulated $900 billion in bank loans including almost all longterm debt estimates Moscow investment bank Troika Dialog. With global credit markets in a lockdown mode Russia is simply running short of cash. The government has $560 billion in foreign exchange reserves from years of high oil prices plus $160 billion in two sovereign wealth funds with most of this money in fixed income securities abroad as a rainy day cushion should oil prices tumble. On October 7 the governmet announced $36 billion in emergency loans to Russian banks following earlier pledges in September of $150 billion in loans and relief for Russian companies in danger of defaulting on international debts. One danger here is that about 55% of outstanding corporate loan are of maturity less than 1 year. One of Russia's largest developers Mirax Group is putting 50 projects on hold as bank financing for developers has almost ceased. On the other hand Russia's financial sector is relatively small and the credit crisis cannot hurt Russia as much as it will USA ad Europe. Bank loans account for 10% of corporate finance and the bond market is only a decade old, so about half of all capital investment by companies comes from retained earnings. And Russia has huge needs for investments in infrastructure after years of underinvestment, a stable political structure, an educated workforce, and an economy that is just getting started. As Secretary Paulson answered questions after the G7 meeting October 10, this was another point on the minds of the secretary and questoners, the hope that emerging markets like Russia, India, and China would continue to grow though slower than before, even as the US and Europe slipped into a long recession, and provide a little cushion to the global economy....

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Senators Grassley, Graham, Risch, Blount, are some of the senators on the Judiciary and Intelligence Committees of the U.S. Senate who believe that Special Counsel Mueller's investigation should stay on track and complete its job, even though texts showing bias between Peter Strzok and Lisa Page led to their removal from the investigation. The senators say Mueller is a very capable guy and he has fired the officials expressing the bias against president Trump. The mood in the House is different where Republican Congressmen have called for Mueller to be removed.

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The Biden administration is pushing ahead with a new supply chain at a virtual two day meeting of 17 countries. In addition to the US and the European Union trade and economy ministers of Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, Singapore, Indonesia, will attend. It is an effort to build an alternative to the existing supply chain because of its dangerous dependence on China and Russia.

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This behind the scenes account  shows how the NATO communique with policy declaration was prepared by July 6 before European leaders and Mr. Trump set foot in Brussels on July 11. It shows to what lengths key members in the Trump administration will go to achieve American objectives in preserving the NATO alliance. Particularly now that Russia is taking an aggressive stance to NATO near its borders.  General Mattis at Defense Department pushed for the 4 30's initiative which is about preparing a rapid deployment force to be ready by 2020. This is in the communique. Also in the communique is the setup of a command post in Norfolk, Virginia, ready to act to deploy forces in Europe. U.S. ambassador to NATO, Kailey Hutchinson, received the demand from National Security Adviser Bolton to have ambassadors from all countries work overtime to get the declaration done by July 6. Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General supported this effort. All were concerned that there should be no repeat of the mess that happened for the G-7 communique when at the last minute president Trump refused to sign on, leading to derisive comments about Canada's Justin Trudeau. It was seen as critical to preserve the sense of unity in the U.S. alliance with Europe. This time there was no disruption even though Mr. Trump acted unpredictably in Brussels. ...

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At the G-7 in Italy Biden says- "he (Putin) cannot wait us out." A ten year pact on defense is signed with Ukraine by the US. A $50 billion loan is made to Ukraine with interest from frozen Russian assets in the EU.

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With inflation running at 6.7% in Russia, the central bank has decided not to increase interest rates following the U.S. Fed's bond purchase tapering decision in Jan 2014. The ruble declined by 6% in Jan 2014 and 15% for the last year. With the economy slowing the central bank finds it difficult to raise interest rates, and with inflation the bank has less flexibility to lower rates and increase credit availability. The ruble's lower value is a result of a shrinking current account surplus, with the added effect of capital flight from markets seen as riskier by investors. Currency collapse is a sensitive issue for many Russians after the 1997 crisis and collapse of the ruble. Central bank chief Ms. Nabiullina was on television explaining the decline to ordinary Russians, saying- " It's not that the ruble is weakening but the dollar and the euro are rising in price." Economists say the ruble's weakening won't add as much to inflation as slowing demand will make it harder for retail chains to raise prices....

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Rebuilding the Russian economy with the help of investment from the US and Europe was a key job for Elvira Nabiullina at the Russian central bank and Vladimir Putin as head of the administration during the 10 years after the Yeltsin government from 1998 to 2008. Much of these gains may now be lost with the invasion of Ukraine, and the miscalculations of both western leaders Merkel in Germany and Bush-Obama and Mr. Putin as shown in a recent WSJ report on the miscalculations of the last 20 years.

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XI Jinping tells China's National People's Congress that "western nations- including the US- have implemented all round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to development." Addressing the private sector Chamber of Commerce representatives which create significant number of jobs in China he said the Communist Party "has always regarded private enterprises and private entrepreneurs as our own people, and will always support them whenever they run into difficulties." Job creation in China is a challenge with high youth unemployment estimated at about 20%. The pandemic worsened the situation for state finances and for unemployment for migrants, the construction slowdown has added to this. The burden of trillions of dollars of local government debt increased during the pandemic with the central government lacking the resources to help, creating problems in the local economies.  This WSJ report says Xi's speech seeks to present his government's performance in the light of these challenges and future challenges as growth slows in China. The trading relationship with US-EU added to employment and income problems for China's economy and people, yet it had one weakness an over concentration in manufacturing in one country that European and US business placed in one country. The building of a  new supply chain that creates manufacturing in other countries to reduce this concentration, and the limits placed on access to western technologies by China to protect US-EU in competition, places new development challenges for China, which Xi alludes to. In the past China was able to use huge stimulus to tackle its debt by creating more growth that supported this debt creation. The pandemic may finally have reversed this as trillions of dollars of debt have built up, and construction of homes and infrastructure has reached a saturation point. This is the kind of situation that Japan entered in the 1990's after three decades of torrid growth and development rates. History is being repeated as China like Japan is entering a new phase of an aging society. In this sense the challenges China is facing are very different from that of Russia. Creating jobs is a perennial problem in India and China with their large populations and rising aspirations of people after centuries of underdevelopment, something that Europe including Russia does not face in anywhere to a similar degree. in this sense there is more in common between the EU and Russia even when they are in a war, than Russia and China, and China has more in common with India. The struggle in Europe as Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has pointed out in his History of Europe, is more about the balance of power which is the story of European history since the 1450's where no one country has been allowed to act with impunity in invading its neighbors and other countries formed a concerted group to prevent this. Be it France, Austria, Britain or Russia that acted seemingly with impunity. China has little to do with it or Europe's history. President Biden is right to say that the US only competes with China in the economic and business fields, and seeks to find common ground on climate change and food insecurity. The US has supported China throughout the twentieth century since the time of Woodrow Wilson in 1913, around the period when Tsinghua University was established with US help. The US helped China during the Japanese invasion and the Cold War period ended with renewed relations.  ...

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Russian president Putin tells the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera, before his visit to Italy, that the failure to carry out the agreement of Feb. 2015 called Minsk II- following the eruption in fighting at Debaltseve and Mariupol in eastern Ukraine- is because of the Poroshenko government in Kiev. He called on the U.S. and Europe to pressure the government in Kiev. The Ukrainian position is that the local elections cannot move forward until pro-Russian fighters and weapons are withdrawn, and the control of the border with Russia is given back to Ukraine. As western sanctions on Russia over intervention in Ukraine are coming up for renewal at a meeting of the G-7, Putin said he was committed to the Minsk II agreement for autonomy to be given to the region of the Luhatsk and Donetsk republics, which were established in the east with Russian assistance. Putin told the newspaper in an interview: "The document we agreed upon in Minsk, called Minsk II, is the best agreement and perhaps the only unequivocal solution to this problem. We would never have agreed upon it if we had not considered it to be right, just and feasible. On our part, we take every effort, and will continue to do so, in order to influence the authorites of the unrecognized, self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics. But not everything depends on us. Our European and U.S. partners should exert influence on the current Kiev administration, We do not have the power, as Europe and the U.S. do, to convince Kiev to carry out everything that was agreed on in Minsk." That the two sides are far apart on issues is shown by Ukraine president Poroshenko's position that for an election to take place for implementing decentralization in the eastern region of Donetsk and Luhansk - "It is impossible to provide the election when the bandits and terrorists with guns are on the street. This is not free and not fair." Putin's position is that " Specifically there needs to be a constitutional reform to ensure the autonomous rights of the unrecognized republics. The Kiev authorites do not want to call it autonomy- they prefer different terms, such as decentralization. Our European partners, those very partners who wrote the corresponding clause in the Minsk agreements, explained what should be understood as decentralization. It gives them the right to speak their language, to have their own cultural identity and engage in cross-border trade- nothing special beyond the civilized understanding of ethnic minorities' rights in any European country." ...

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The US dollar is rapidly appreciating against currencies such as the Indian rupee, the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. The aggressive interest rate policy in the US and investor sense that the US central bank will take action against inflation is one reason the US dollar is stronger and will continue to strengthen in coming years. The weakness of emerging market currencies, the Bank of Japan's policy to continue keeping interest rates low, and the stronger US economy vs the European economy as Europe struggles with a war and cutoff of energy supplies from Russia, are other reasons for a stronger dollar in 2023 and beyond.

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Neil Irwin of NYT provides some counter intuitive ideas on U.S. Fed interest rate policy. He says it can't be take as a given that the Fed will raise rates in 2017-2018. This depends on how much punch there is in the Trump economic policies for stimulus, and for infrastructure spending, tax cuts. He cites Senate Majority Leader McConnell who said he would like to keep "tax reform revenue neutral." Getting large spending and pushing up the deficit is likely to run up against Republicans in Congress who have for 8 years opposed large spending increases and large deficits. Trump has given few details about his stimulus or infrastructure spending plans. He says the scale of the spending might not match the talk. Irwin cites JP Morgan Chase economists who have kept their forecasts for GDP growth just under 2% for 2017 and 2018. And he points out that even Trump appointees at the Fed might act independently. The Fed might look at being cautious considering that increased trade tensions with China, and the unpredictability of a Trump administration could hurt growth. Irwin does not mention the uncertainty in other areas such as policy towards Russia on which the Republican party and Congress have very different views than Trump, tensions over Taiwan, that can also affect growth. ...