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Only 28% of the people in Portugal between 25 and 64 have completed high school . This compares with 85% in Germany, 91% in Czech Republic and 89% for the U.S. Portugal's high-school dropout rate is 37%, one of the highest in Europe. Its reading scores lag behind the OECD average, even after improvements in the last decade. The military dictatorships that ruled Portugal did not emphasize education, and education was neglected for several centuries before that. Even after efforts by the democratically elected governments in recent decades there is a huge gap between Portugal and countries like Ireland. This becomes important for Portugal to build industries and have the technical skilled workers to support these industries. Without this Portugal's financial condition can only get worse. With a technical skilled workforce such as that in Ireland, analysts estimate the growth in GDP would be 1.5% higher. Sharp cuts in education spending are going to make the situation tougher. Portugal lacks industry, yet at the same time cumulative deficits with the rest of the world are over 130 billion euros after years of cumulative deficits. This highlights the problems facing the euro currency countries with vastly different educational systems, industry structures and economic management....

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Th situation of poor farmers borrowing at 150% for seeds and fertilizer and 942 suicide deaths in Vidarbha region alone this year. Small farmers with less than a hectare of land account for nearly 80% of the country's hundereds of millions of farmers. World bank estimates that 87% of marginal farmers and 70% of small farmers have no access to credit from a formal financial institution like a bank in india. In 2004 the government cut in half the interest rates on farm loans and commercial bank have since increased farms loans to reach a target of 2.24 trillion ruppees triple what was loaned 3 years earlier. Cooperative banks haven't done much because of lbad loans and lacking funds as they would be expected to do in rural areas. And commercial banks don't have as much of a presence in the farming rural areas with only one for 22,500 people or about 31,000 branches. Better credit would improve living conditions, increase support for political parties that support for good rural credit, and experts say would help increase farm production of grains. India recently banned export of some grains of rice and is having to import wheat. ...

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The effort by 90 German universities to provide education for free to the large number of refugees from North Africa and the Middle East that are being given a home in Germany in 2015-2016. In rural areas especially in former East Germany there is still uneasiness about the large number of refugees expected to come in 2015- but students and most people in urban areas are receptive. Yet the challenges remain as the university system is crowded with students and can accomodate only about a fourth of the refugges coming in 2015. The low unemployment rate and need for workers is helpful in absorbing such a large influx of people into the country. Volunteers and the German language classes will help better integrate the refugees into German society. Though there is a small minority of people opposed to immigration, Germany society remains largely open to taking in and helping the refugees, compared to the situation in Sweden and Denmark where recent elections showed parties with anti-immigration stance getting a larger share of the vote and becoming part of the government....

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This report by NYT's Choe Sang Hun shows in a brief and lucid manner the charges against South Korea's president Park Geun-hye, as the National Assembly votes on a motion to impeach her.  Her close friend and advisor, Ms. Choo Soon-sil, is involved. Ms. Soon-sil is accused by prosecutors of seeking favors from corporations such as Hyundai, and using the help of the president or the administration to secure these favors. This includes contracts for companies and foundations run by Ms. Soon-sil. In the proceedings before the National Assembly business leaders of the nation's largest companies have confirmed that they could not say no because of requests coming from the administration and the presidential office. About $69 million of donations to the foundations were made. The conglomerate Lotte donated $6 million for a sports complex to be built so that Ms. Soon-sil's company Blue K could run it. Prosecutors say these companies feared retaliation or tax investigations if they did not comply with requests from the presidential office. Other charges are about national intelligence and this relates to orders from president Park to an aide to give 47 classified documents to Ms. Choi Soon-sil between 2013 and 2016. Choi had no security clearance and the documents showed who would be appointed to top government positions including national intelligence director. The opposition in the National Assembly says this violates her constitutional obligations. The constitutional guarantees of freedom of the press were violated say opposition leaders because a newspaper's president was fired for covering Ms. Choi's activities. ...

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Keith Bradsher's NYT interview with Raghuram Rajan, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, comes when Rajan has come under criticism from the business sector and the small business support base of prime minister Modi's party. The criticism centers on the drop in oil prices since Nov. 2014, and Rajan's failure to drop interest rates at the Dec. 2, 2014 central bank meeting. Rajan says it was not clear whether oil prices would remain low for an extended period at the Dec. 2, 2014 meeting. Since then new inventory data, EIA estimates and OPEC policy guidance have confirmed low prices will remain for an extended period. Rajan lowered interest rates on Jan. 14, 2015, by one quarter of a percentage point. Under India's setup the central bank chief makes decisions on interest rates, compared to the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee at the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rajan says there is full understanding between the central bank and the Modi government economic team led by finance minister Arun Jaitley, Jayan Sinha, deputy minister of state for finance, and chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanium. Modi and Jaitley prefer to rely on the advice and policy direction of economic policymakers with long experience in the U.S. and international circles. Both Subramanium and Rajan bring this level of experience and expertise. Subramanium brings experience from his years at the GATT which preceded the WTO, the IMF, and the Peterson Institute of International Economics, and Rajan brings experience at the University of Chicago, and as chief economist of the IMF. Modi is a dilgent listener and policymaker giving careful attention to the best advice, making it unlikely that Rajan would be seen as a holdover from the administration of Manmohan Singh. Other criticism that the business sector has made of Rajan are as financial regulator in asking state banks to increase collateral required from large business firms for large bank loans. Rajan points out the need for business to bear the costs as well as the benefits of taking risks. Under previous governments the state banks allowed large firms to keep their holdings at companies even when the risk taking resulted in losses. Rajan has also not tried to reverse the sharp decline in the rupee, which hurts business firms which took on dollar denominated loans. Rajan has instead followed policy of building up the reserves by buying dollars. The reserves were depleted in 2013 by a policy of currency interventions to reverse that decline. Inflation in India reached 9.9% in Dec. 2013, with policy of the central bank under Rajan set to bring it down to 8% in 2014, and below 6% in 2015, so that India could get out of the trap of persistently high inflation with slow growth. This is critical for a new Indian success story. A goal set by Rajan in Oct. 2012 when he was appointed as central bank chief, was to increase foreign investment and encourage new business so that India was no longer dependent on large companies for growth. This is also critical for a new Indian success story, as the Modi administration and the central bank are both keenly aware. Just as Bernanke and now Yellen at the U.S. Fed face criticism for quantitative easing monetary policy, focus on the high long term unemployed, and not focussing on inflation- with their focus on the long term economic recovery in an environment of low inflation below 2% in the U.S.- India's Reserve Bank faces a different kind of criticism for careful and prudent policies to ensure long term growth....

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Cardinal Jospeh Zen of the Catholic Church who supported the democracy protest movement in Hong Kong.

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Germany's president Steinmeier is emerging as a key figure in the current effort to form a majority government in Germany under chancellor Merkel, reports Griff Witte in the Washington Post. This is because the FDP under Lindner with 11% of the vote has pulled out of the coalition talks, and the only alternative is for the SPD to change its position and agree to join the talks. Under Schulz the SPD has for 2 months turned down any effort to join the coalition talks. Partly because the SPD has not done well in recent elections and lost some of its worker base support. Some in the SPD have blamed this on the previous coalitions with the CDU party of Merkel. Steinmeier is a leader from the SPD who was foreign minister in the previous coalition of the CDU-SPD, and has greater influence on the SPD.  Steinmeier has pushed all parties to make another effort. This includes the SPD and Schulz now says the SPD shoulders "a responsibility to the country." After some prodding by Steinmeier and a 8 hour party meeting the SPD now says it will not say no to the talks. One SPD leader, a former mayor of Munich, says the SPD should be careful about what it says because we don't want to sound like "an agitated heap of chickens." In that case Schulz may step aside. ...

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Ms. Le Pen of the National Front called her going into the second round runoff against Macron's En Marche movement, "an act of French pride." Emmanuel Macron has his own way of looking at this. As this NYT editorial points out Macron says his is a movement "of patriots fighting the threat of nationalism." At his rallies and the rally following coming out the front runner in the first round of elections Macron is shown with people waving French flags all around him. The message- that in today's world of global cooperation for economic progress nationalist feeling has to be balanced with healthy cooperation and integration into the regional community, the European Union. That he is a patriot who also has in him a feeling for the communities in his wider region. That real economic progress can only be achieved working in cooperation with neighboring countries and regional community, and around new ideas for renewal.

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Von Mark Schieritz of Germany's Zeit Online describes the changes underway following the election campaigns in the U.S., and France, and the Brexit vote in Britain, all signalling the discontent of people left behind by the tech, capitalism, trade and globalization changes of the last two decades. The appeal of one time fringe politicians using racist slogans and divisive rhetoric to appeal to those left behind, appealing to people lacking intergenerational mobility, and without much hope for a better future, is a serious concern. People who are gullible enough, lack college education, or racially isolated so that they are not likely to look carefully at what is being offered in terms of programs and change of competing parties, and likely to overlook the hard and difficult road for corrective course of action, because of anger and pentup fears. Schieritz cites as part of this change the unanimously approved conclusion in its final declaration at the G-20 meeting in Chengdu, China- "The benefits of growth need to be shared more broadly within and among countries to promote inclusiveness." Yet this can be a sort of "too little, too late."  Bankers who are cited in an email going around Wall Street lack credibility with groups on Main Street, to people adversely affected by tech, trade and globalization changes that have been persistently ignored for over a decade, close to two decades. More convincing is the tone of Theresa May, the British prime minister's first statement outside 10 Downing Street- who spoke of the "burning injustices" and her determination to make this a top priority of her government. Still more convincing are the programs to invest $275 billion over 10 years in infrastructure put forward by the leading candidate in the U.S. presidential election of 2016, to provide easier access to public universities and colleges to those left behind, as a sure way to create new jobs and address intergenerational mobility. In fact every leading candidate had made the loss of upward mobility their central plank already in 2015, long before Trump and Sanders started their campaign. The real hope lies in western leaders Merkel, May, and Clinton, all keenly aware students of changes, all women by the way who have sensed the injustice and have the ability to come up with something new and promising for the future, after learning the lessons of the past. ...

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The Putin administration in Russia has set a goal for 2.5% GDP growth for 2013. The figures for the first 5 months of 2013 show growth at 1.8%. Russian president Putin told the St. Petersburg Economic Forum that central bank policies will continue inflation targeting. Putin's economic aide Ms. Elvira Nabiullina will become the new head of the central bank in July 2013. David Lipton, deputy head of the IMF told the forum the IMF assessment is that there is no slack in the Russian economy. Putin announced $13.6 billion in infrastructure investment for rail and road links, and liberalization of gas export rules, and improvements in the judicial system.

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More doubts about the $200 billion program that will lend money to private investors to buy securities backed by student and auto loans, credit card debt and small business loans, called the TALF or Term Asset -Backed Securities Loan Facility. The Fed will provide these loans at attractive interest rates and provide an insurance policy for possible default of some of the securities, as investors stoped buying in October 2008. This is a vitally necessary step to keep consumer lending going as it collapsed in October. Lenders package these loans into securities and sell them so they can make more loans. See the link and graph on this. But will it stimulate purchases of automobiles and other items? It will keep the lending going but the problem lies in that lenders are asking for higher credit scores from consumers to make loans, and banks do not have confidence in consumers just as millions of consumers have damaged their creditworthiness by missing or late payments. And consumers are reluctant to borrow and make purchases. And while this is a necessary move to keep unclogging the credit channels in the system by the Fed and Treasury, it still means in actual practice to be a limited lending and borrowing to make the continuing slide in demand a continuing fact. Small businesses may fare better with credit unions which should pick up their lending. The situation with mortgage lending is again the same with higher credit scores required and millions of homeowners under water not able to take advantage of the lower rates to refinance. Cameron Findlay, the chief economist at Lending Tree says that at the end of the day it is not just about lower rates but also of qualifications with credit scores of 720 required and a down payment of at least 20%, at a time when unemployment is rising and wages declining. So he sees little or no significant meaningful impact....

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Comments by Eric Schmidt CEO of Google in an interview with the NYT's Helft. Important points emerging from the interview. Google he says does not know how long this crisis will last. Response not to waste money means less hiring and more careful expense reviews, and more focus. Managers are very very sensitive to important aspects of its culture, so such perks will continue which make it fun to work at the company for employees. And he says careful investment inthe future. "If you tighten too much, you eliminate future innovation, and then you set yourself up for a really bad outcome five or ten years" down the road. And here is the most important point he makes in advising the Obama administration. Do not take up the economy first, and let energy come in afterwards, deal with all the major problems at once, especially energy, which are part of the problem and the opportunity for the economy. For instance as the auto industry shrinks these job losses can be filled with jobs making parts for renewable energy like wind turbines and blades, like solar energy generation parts. This is actually happening already, government could speed things up by mandates for renewable energy and by help to companies through incentives. See the link to this in the NYT about companies in places like Newton, Iowa where lost jobs at Maytag are being replaced by renewable energy jobs. And several million jobs can be generated in energy to make up losses in auto jobs in the midwest. These parts of the Obama plan may have come up through conversations with Schmidt and other advocates of this, and by seeing what is already happening as reported by the NYT in the link. It makes Obama look like a farsighted genius, but its just sharp observation and careful listening. Pickens is already advertising this on television for his wind farms in Texas. It is not only Google's thinking, as Schmidt says, but good common sense and some ballpark estimates that would tell one that it would save sending 1 trillion dollars to Middle East and other nations that is needed for investment at home in the U.S.. Schmidt's calculations are that this amount could be saved in 22 years through renewable energy, plug-in hybrids and other innovative technologies. ...

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Patricia Kowsmann provides this picture of life in a town on Portugal's northern coast, Viana do Castelo, with a population of 87,000, as Portugal struggles to make a recovery. Viana do Castelo has shipyards and companies making metal bridges for highways. The money losing state owned shipyard was privatized and sold to Martifer SGPS SA to run till 2031. 600 workers at the shipyard were laid off. The new company plans to rehire 400 workers by 2016 but jobs will not be permanent. Companies making the bridges now sell to former Portuguese colonies of Angola, Mozambique, Brazil. 200,000 people have left the country to look for jobs or higer education, including the mayor's daughter in London. Exports are up and now make up 40% of Portugal's GDP, up from 27% in 2009. The economic growth is 0.9% in 2014, after declining 6% 2011-2013. Portugal accepted the last instalment of the bailout loan of 78 billion euros in 2014. It will auction 1.25 billion euros of bonds on July 22, 2015. Unemployment is now declining dropping to 14% from a high of 17%, and higher than the pre crisis level of 11%. Here in this coastal town the mayor Jose Maria Costa cut public employee salaries 15%, and also cut sports and cultural programs. Two food centers provide free lunch and dinner, and half of the 4000 children in school get subsidies for food and transport. A shipyard worker Antonio Gomes Barbosa 64, is one of the laid off workers. His son's architecture company closed and he left Portugal for Angola. Some of his co-workers now work at a shipyard in neighboring Spain....

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Saudi Arabia continued to follow a policy of high oil production in 2016, and reported that it produced 10.67 million barrels a day in July 2016. Iran is producing at a pre-sanction level of 4 million barrels a day. 2017 oil demand prediction by OPEC is at growth of 1.15 million barrels a day. Experts says that the interests of Iran and the Saudis may be converging to reduce production as they face low oil prices. Iran needs to make large investments and Saudis face budget cuts with low oil prices. They point to this cooperation being temporary as there are issues of competing politics in the region, and beyond that both countries seek to expand their market share.

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NYT reporter Neuman takes a17 hour road trip across the island of Cuba in a 1956 Ford Fairlane. He heads west from Havana near the west end of the island to Guantanamo on the east end. He sees a changing Cuba with houses for sale, little sign of ideological signs in the countryside, old cars, oxcarts, horsecarts, a Cuba that looked like it was stuck in the past. In the five years that Raul Castro took over from Fidel Castro, money and business have gradually taken the place of politics. The average salary of $20 a month is not enough for most workers even with free healthcare and education, and most people dream of making more money to enjoy a better life. Many rely on relatives abroad for additional funds, or buying and selling on the black market, or a second job.

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Defense spending under the new Obama 2012-2013 budget for the fiscal year starting Oct. 1, 2012, is $525 billion, and an additional $88 billion for Afghanistan. This is $6 billon below the $531 billion budget for the 2011-2012 budget of $531 billion approved by Congress, $22 billion less than the Obama administration's proposed budget. An additional $115.1 billion was for Afghanistan. In a move to bring financial discipline to additional appropriations for foreign conflicts, the Obama administration is proposing in the 2012-2013 budget proposal a limit to "overseas contingency operations" appropriations. The total proposed is $450 billion for fiscal 2013 to 2021.

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Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF says that as government borrowing around the world surges, interest rates will go up. Governments borrow by selling bonds to investors, and to attract investors the government competes with stock and corporate bond markets for investor's money, leading to rising yields for investors. As the confidence has returned to corporate bond markets this is already happening. From the end of 2008. the yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury note has increased by one and ahalf percentage points, rising to 3.54% from 2%, the sharpest upward movement in 15 years. In Germany the yield on German 10 year bonds has also risen, rising to 3.57% from 2.93%. Similiarly British bond yields have risen to 3.78% from 3.41%. Congressional Budget Office estimates are that net government debt for the USA will rise to 65% of GDP at the end of fiscal 2010, from 41% at the end of fiscal 2008. In 2009 and 2010 the US government will sell $5 trillion in new debt, according to Citigroup. A decade from now the government's outstanding debt could equal 82% of GDP, or about $17 trillion. Every one point rise in interest rates costs the Treasury $50 billion annually over a few years, and Kenneth Rogoff estimates that this could reach $170 billion annually if the average yield on 10 year Treasury note goes up to 4.7%, as the Congressional Budget Office estimates. This will dampen the effects of stimulus spending. It is a big issue says Rogoff. A year ago under old policy and assumptions before the financial crisis the Congressional Budget Office projected outstanding debt at $5.3 trillion in 10 years. Now the estimate is $17 trillion, which is triple the old number and an increase of $11 trillion. A recovering economy would make these numbers less relevant. But with struggling industries like autos and banks needing more help from the government, and with consumers having to reduce a mountain of debt, a weak economy for a long time and small growth for a decade would make this a story that won't go away. Rogoff says its like what happened to the subprime borrowers, people assuming that the funding is always going to be there. In 2009 and 2010 Citigroup says, the Euro zone countries will sell nearly 1.6 trillion euros or $2.6 trillion in new debt, and Britain will offer 490 billion pounds or $799 billion in new debt. Over the next decade this would slow Europe's recovery and prolong the downturn. Britain faces a bigger problem in the near term as Britain's governmetn debt equals 55% of GDP, and Standard and Poors estimates it could approach 100% by 2013. South America and Eastern Europe will also face the situation of rising rates. Asian countries like China with lower levels of debt are in a better situation, IMF's Blanchard says....