LyrArc Article Gist
DJT on Canada "lives because of the US," and Carney's referencing the relationship and saying "Canada does not live because of the US." Rupture in relations started earlier but was mended. This time Carney takes the first step after visiting Beijing to clearly distance Canada from the US in speeches at Davos, by being openly critical of US policies. This does not bode well for negotiations onthe USMCA agreement that is being rewritten. Disputes with Mexico continues over US preference to strike on land against drug cartels in Mexico that are trafficking drugs to the US with loss of hundreds of thousands of lives more than the Korean and Vietnam wars, and World War 1 combined over the last decade. The USMCA involves negotiations with Mexico and Canada. The Border has been secured but like Eisenhower in 1954 DJT faces the problem of how to send back the surge in migrants that entered the border illegally through Mexico with the Mexican government not intervening and the Biden/Harris/Mayorkas government failing to secure it -asking for legislation as late as 2024 when most of the illegal entry had already happened. In 1954 Eisenhower organized Operation Wetback to do this, which is now underway in the US in a different way by DJT in 2026 with the clear focus on getting criminal activity out. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Iraq is being dragged into Iran War with Iran backed Popular Mobilization Forces as part of the current Iraqi government. Today there are Sectarian divisions Shia and Sunni jostling for influence and power in the state of Iraq, a state created artificially in 1921 by Britain to protect its regional interests. After the Ottoman Empire 1524-1918 was broken up, after the WW1 in 1918, the British in subsequent negotiations got the League of Nations Mandate for Mesopotamia- historically the region between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. It was made up of three provinces of the Ottoman Empire Basra, Baghdad and Mosul. Basra had a large Shia population, Baghdad and Mosul had a large Sunni population.  To this date no census has taken place except in 1987 and 2024 and never one that shows which portion of the population is Shia or Sunni, so no one really knows. Britain installed Faisal 1 as the King of this artificially created kingdom in 1924. The British operated in this way controlling the Shah of Iran at the time, and the Iraqi king, Egyptian king. Britain and France tried to install a Caliph in Istanbul who would rule Turkey and protect British and French interests but failed because of a Turkish military officer Ataturk who declared a independent Turkish state based in Ankara in the 1920's and defeated British sponsored armies and forces from Greece.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Morning Star Firstlinks on AI investing which says that AI is not generating cash flow, it is burning it. It looks at the huge depreciation of data center technology over 5 years and that 25% returns on the AI center investments would not recover the cost of depreciation, let alone the whole investment. The depreciation for 2025 year is shown at $40 billion with $15-$20 billon in revenue in this hypothetical case. Revenue has to grow ten fold from what it is now to support the $40 billion in depreciation each year for these data chips.

LyrArc Article Gist
Children's aid UNICEF shows a photograph of a young girl on top of a garbage heap taken by Arez Ghaderi, as the photograph of the year for 2016. It was taken in Iran at the border with Afghanistan, for Balochi tribe, with a bullet riddled school in the background. The second prize went for a picture of faces of children at a Greek refugee camp as they wait for a a film showing at a makeshift cinema. In both pictures the children seem happy and smiling, the opposite of the picture around them.

LyrArc Article Gist
Prime minister Renzi of Italy resigns after defeat in a referendum to change the constitution. Renzi had said he would resign if there was a "no" vote on constitutional changes to make it possible to pass further reforms. The results show the "yes" vote with about 41% of the vote, and 59% saying "no." About 65% of 47 million registered voters voted. The referendum called for cutting the size of the upper house Senate eliminating some constitutional bodies, and increasing powers at the federal level. Renzi may have made the mistake of making the vote for or against constitutional change a vote for his democratic left party, and not understanding the depth of public skepticism of established parties. Parties such as 5 Star M5S  have appealed to a public skeptical of how economic reforms would help bring more prosperity to the middle class, and a desire to try out new options. Virginia Raggi of M5S was elected mayor of Rome recently and Renzi's referendum move similar to the way prime minister Cameron moved for a referendum on an old issue of euroskeptisim, may have failed to grasp grassroots changes. The irony is that in 2014 elections to the European parliament Renzi's democratic left party won 40% of the vote and was seen at the time as a success, and the same size vote in the referendum is seen as a failure. In a referendum all other parties votes are added together from right to left parties and new parties. In the Brexit vote the Labor party "no" vote including Labor voters who never voted added to the votes of Brexit supporters and the newer UKIP party giving Brexit the slight edge needed. The singular feature of the trend is that working class voters are combining with right leaning voters to upset established parties, in the midwestern U.S., in the north of England, and in the north of France. In the medium to long run this means the left parties are likely to move to realign themselves with their base of support. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Increasing regulation on Mexico's telephone monopoly of America Movil, and Telmex, part of Carlos Slim's telephone business in Mexico. Mexico's three main parties have agreed to increase regulation on the monopoly to reduce the high charges paid by Mexico's telecom users. Estimates by OECD show Mexicans paying an extra $13 billion a year from 2005 to 2009 because of the monopoly and high prices. The administration of Pena Nieto made controlling telecom and other monopolies an important part of its program. To get an idea of the extent of the monopolistic control - 70 percent of the cellphone market and 65 percent of fixed lines are controlled by companies run by Slim.  AT&T is now a competitor and is helping bring down high cellphone plan prices.

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

LyrArc Article Gist
India imports 2 million barrels a day of oil from Russia. It now faces the need to address the problem this has created for Germany and US seeking an end to Russian missile attacks on Ukraine. Without other leverage DJT and indirectly Germany are putting pressure on India to shift these purchases to the US and cut India's $46 billion deficit with the US.  India needs to accept that the reprieve it got during the covid years to import from Russia to help it control inflation at home would at some time come under increasing pressure from the US. That time may be now as DJT and Merz see this as the only few areas of leverage they have to get Russia to reconsider its position for settling the Ukraine war entirely on its terms. Just as in the India Pakistan war the current talk of nuclear escalation resulting from the Ukraine war has to be a major consideration for US, EU, Russia, China and India, all the world's leaders, to step back and see ways to work for an overall interest than in time to come will help these nations national interests.  It will require brave moves from India, China, the US and Russia. Yet this is the new course that alone can bring a return to a world focused on modernization and improving the lives of the people of these nations. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The shares of Belgium's Dexia bank dropped 22% on October 4, 2011, to 1.01 euros. Dexia has large holdings of sovereign debt- 21 billion euros of debt from troubled eurozone countries. Of this 3.8 billion euros is in Greek bonds, 13.4 billion euros in Italian bonds. The total Dexia holdings of Greek, Portuguese, Italian, Spanish, and Irish debt is about 3 times the book value of its equity. After the 2008 crisis Dexia attempted to change to a retail bank based in Belgium and Turkey. But customer deposits are only 25% of its liabilities, making Dexia heavily dependent on issuing covered bonds which are difficult to issue because of the large debt from troubled countries. The response of the Belgian and French governments on October 4-5 is to breakup Dexia. The breakup plan includes selling off the asset management business and DenizBank, its retail bank in Turkey. Other actions include selling Paris based public finance Dexia Municipal Agency to French savings banks Caisse des Depots & Consignations, and La Banque Postale. The 21 billion euros of bonds from troubled eurozone countries will be placed in a "bad bank" with guarantees from Belgian and French governments. ...