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The publisher of the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Co., is working to overturn a court injunction that prevents the public from seeing the Medicare billing records of individual doctors. Dow Jones & Co., filed court papers in January 2011, to overturn the court injunction. The American Medical Association has fought to keep secret the amounts of money individual doctors get paid by Medicare. The AMA filed a lawsuit against the government to keep secret these Medicare records, on the grounds of privacy rights, and won a court ruling in 1979. This court ruling still stands. The position of Dow Jones in its efforts to change this situation, is that giving the public access to the records is essential to the monitoring of so large a public expense as Medicare. These records would then be available to state medical boards, nonprofit organizations, universities and newspapers who can act as watchdogs over the $500 billion Medicare program. Such transparency and monitoring is an essential feature for the proper functioning of such programs and to prevent misuse of public money. For a program like Medicare, fraud and waste has enormous implications, as it adds to the spiralling cost of healthcare and to the unsustainable budget deficits. In one of the largest cases so far, the FBI, Justice Department, 700 state, federal and local agents, worked together to charge 114 defendents nationwide with Medicare fraud in February 2011. A senior law enforcemet official says Medicare fraud is so rampant, "there's no way in hell you can prosecute your way out of this problem, no way." He says the the answer is more effective monitoring of the money that goes out. And a key part of that is transparency and public access to how the money in Medicare is spent, what individual doctors and healthcare providers are getting paid by Medicare. The lack of this transparency for a program the size of Medicare can only lead to a lack of monitoring as the Dow Jones suit asserts, and make it difficult for the government to check abuses in the way money goes out. At a time when teachers and public workers and seniors are expected to make their share of the sacrifices to fix the budget deficits, it is incomprehensible that money should then be allowed to go out of the Medicare system through fraud and waste, because of a lack of transparency....

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A new report by Medicare trustees found that the Medicare hospital trust fund would face insolvency by 2029, which is 12 years after the projection made last year. But Medicare's chief actuary questioned this by saying that this assumes cuts in payments to medical providers in the health reform bill would be implemented. Not realistic he says, considering that many doctors would drop out of Medicare causing difficulty for seniors. After 2029 Medicare would be able to pay 85% of the benefits according to this report. Separately the Social Security fund is expected to need a $41 billion cash infusion, with more paid out in benefits, than collected in tax receipts in 2010 and 2011, with this situation getting worse by 2015.

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Germany will provide 140 million euros in extra funding for Syrian refugees and at least 500 million euros in humanitarian and development aid for 2015-2017, according to Foreign Minister Steinmeier.

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German born Joerg Reinhardt, the new chairman of Novartis, is overseeing the plan to revitalize and strengthen its R&D operations. Reinhardt who has a doctorate in pharmaceutical sciences, spent 30 years working for Novartis and its predecessor company Sandoz, before leaving for Bayer in 2010 and returning to Novartis. He is leading the effort by setting up a board subcommittee setup to oversee the research and development effort. The new subcommittee's task is to review the R&D strategy and organization. The subcommittee will advise the board on scientific trends and activities critical to R&D success. Novartis has increased R&D budget to 5.6% in 2013, which will remain at that level in 2014. The pharmaceutical industry by contrast decreased spending by 2.2% in 2013 compared to the high point in 2011, according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Research activities will be concentrated in 4 cities- Shanghai, Basel, Boston and La Jolla, California, to take advantage of infrastructure already in place in these places. A review of Novartis's portfolio of business begun in 2013 will be completed in 2014. Reinhardt says acquisitions of upto $5 billion could be made to build scale for promising smaller units. The review also includes Novartis's one third stake in Roche built up since 2001, and conversations Reinhardt is having with Roche's new chairman Christopher Franz....

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Kudos to Ellen Barry for hands on reporting right from Amethi, Uttar Pradesh state in India. For years UP (Uttar Pradesh) has been seen as one of India's most backward states, even though it is the largest state in India centering around the Ganges valley. Politicians were content to use backward parts of the state as mere vote banks at the time of elections. The elections in 2014 focussed on development are beginning to change this. The Gandhi family based in Allahbad, India, had Amethi in UP as the place where family members stood for parliamentary elections. In recent years as the Gandhi family's grip on UP loosened, the same vote bank policies were employed by caste group parties led first by Ms. Mayawati and then Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav. The elections of 2014 were about making the shift and sea change in Indian politics in the heart of the country- the north central Ganges valley region- away from vote bank politics and caste groups. The BJP under Gujarat's Modi focussed the election on development and delivery on infrastructure and jobs. For too long reporting on an important part of Asia has been laid back from metropolian centres without the hard work needed to grasp the situation in the countryside and on site. Kudos also to NYT's Bearak's report from Ladakh on the enormous logistics required for an election of this magnitude with about half a billion voters. ...

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With poor sales for the Blackberry Z 10 in 2013, AT&T and Best Buy retailers are discounting the phone to $49 for a refurbished phone, and $99 for a new phone from the original price of $199. Such steep discounting soon after the March 2013 launch of the Z 10 suggests the phone is selling poorly.

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Losses of about 75% of production at some textile plants in Pakistan from severe electricity shortages. Demand outstrips supply by a huge margin. The Ministry of Power estimates demand at 18,0000 watts for a country of 180 million and supply is only 12,000 megawatts. There is a electricity crisis in Pakistan. The first priority of prime minister Nawaz Sharif is to get electricity production up significantly. This means textile plants cannot operate, fans can't operate in the heat of the summer months, and children cannot do homework because of lack of lighting, the whole country and people suffer from the lack of electricity.

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GM's decision to close the NUMMI plant, a joint venture with Toyota that makes the Pontiac Vibe which is being discontinued, the Corolla, and the Tacoma truck. Its a way to reduce excess capacity for Toyota but also is a sensitive point as Toyoa has pledged to keep plants open. Toyota may decide to make the Prius at NUMMI. About 4600 workerts are employed in the San Francisco Bay area at the NUMMI plant.

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The school as an extension of the caring nurturing family, starts with the good motivated teacher, one student at a time. The example of teachers at a Union city public school in New Jersey. At one time a failing school it is now an example of what can be done with good motivated teachers. David Kirp, professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, is the author of the book: "Improbable Scholars: The Rebirth of the Great American School System and a Strategy for America's Schools." Kirp reminds us that the answers are closer to us than we think, the nurturing influence of the schools extends the work of the family, more intuitive, and resembling more of the ways we think and feel children respond to good teachers.

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During the presidential debates Donald Trump was asked about his proposal for a 45% tariff on imports from China to the U.S.. Trump's response was "if they don't behave." he would use this as a negotiating tactic against China. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas responded by reminding viewers of the high tariffs under Smoot-Hawley legislation that were one of the factors that created the Great Depression in the 1930's. Economist and former Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke is a student of the Great Depression, and says "it was highly counterproductive, it lengthened and deepened the Great Depression." Economist Peter Petri of Brandeis University in his study cited in this article, says that the tit for tat that starts with such a move could eventually cost the U.S. 1 million jobs. It might fix one problem the one of imbalanced trade with China his figures show, and create another huge problem the loss of markets for U.S. goods all over the world. Overall a 45% tariff would reduce U.S. merchandise imports by $383 billion and reduce U.S. merchandise exports by $658 billion, says Petri. Gordon Hanson, economist at the University of California, San Diego, who has actually shown how trade has affected different counties in the U.S., leaving some dependent on government assistance. Hanson sees this tariff as counterproductive, it makes the U.S. more self-sufficient but hurts U.S. exporters, would significantly hurt the tech boom, and reduce America's standard of living. The problem is that everybody can get into this in a tit for tat. France did this even before the Smoot Harley Act of 1938 was passed in 1930 with 60% increase in tariff on individual items, by higher tariff legislation in 1928. Close allies Canada followed quickly after Smoot Hawley increasing its tariffs, so did Great Britain. Unemployment went up significantly after 1931, worsened by weak banks and lack of support from the Federal Reserve. Trade with Mexico would come to a halt Petri shows, and the result would be more Mexicans trying to cross the border turning a relatively non existent problem of immigration in 2015 -with Mexicans preferring to remain home and net immigration dropping significantly following the 2008 financial crisis and the strict Obama policy of deporting illegal immigrants- into a real one. Trump says its just a threat, but it is likely to lead to a tit for tat response by China, then by U.S. allies, other trading partners. Consider that president Herbert Hoover opposed the Smoot Hawley bill for raising tariffs on industrial goods, and only proposed adifferent legislation reducing tariffs on industrial goods and increasing the tariffs on agricultural goods to give relief to American farmers. Politics intervened as Smoot from Utah and Hawley from Oregon, from mountain and agricultural states with a lack of understanding of how the international trading system works but as heads of two influential commmittes, the Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee, let politics overrride and pushed their legislation through Congress. In 1932 Smoot and Hawley were defeated for reelection, but the damage had been done, and promises of better conditions for workers and farmers never kept. A significant reason for the U.S. standard of living is that it is a leader in the global trading system. Even in 1945 and the years following the end of the war tariffs were higher in Britain and other countries. In return for this leadership the U.S. enjoys the advantages of the dollar being the main global currency, and the advantages of a world leading technological sector that has large global markets. Hanson and Autor have pointed out how imbalanced trade has hurt some counties in the U.S. This is a very real problem for workers in the manufacturing sector, as shown by elections in the midwestern states, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and other parts of the country. The problem is compounded by the tech sector looking out for itself, the financial sector looking out for itself, and forgetting that we are all in the same boat. And that includes the Chinese who are in the same boat. China is doing a major shift in policy towards a consumer driven economy, and this needs to be accelerated for the benefit of ordinary Chinese. This makes the policy of a 45% tariff by the U.S. doubly unproductive because it hopes to add urgency to the problem of the U.S. trade deficit and manufacturing workers, but takes an approach that risks ending up damaging the global trading system by setting in motion a process that no one controls or can foresee the destination....

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Pierre Razoux, a French historian provides this account of the Iran-Iraq war that lasted from 1980 to 1988, at a cost of 680,000 people killed and $1.1 trillion in war destruction and money diverted from the economy. In 1980 Saddam Hussein of Iraq launched the war by attacking Iran which had just come under the Ayatollah Khomeini with the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979. The war dragged on for 8 years with Khomeini persisting in the war. With U.S. and Saudi policy to increase production bringing the price of oil down from $30 to $10 designed to bring Iran and Iraq to the peace talks, as well as the Soviet Union to withdraw from Afghanistan, all three being major oil producers. The dollar also weakened by 37% during this period. The diplomatic isolation of the Khomeini regime made it more difficult for Iran to buy arms on credit than Iraq could, leading to the war ending with Iran finding it no longer possible to continue the human losses. The Carter administration, particularly with National Security Advisor Brzezinski, tilted towards Iraq to oppose Soviets in Afghanistan, and the Saudis also supported Iraq during the early period. Under president Reagan the U.S. began covert and direct assistance to Iraq to prevent an Iraqi defeat early in the war. Rumsfeld visited Baghdad in December 1983 and March 1984 to organize the U.S. effort to oppose Iran. This may have laid the seeds for future conflicts that lasted through the administrations of the elder and junior Bush. As Razoux points out the Revolutionary Guards became entrenched from this period in Iran's history, making it difficult for election process to work or elected governments to operate. 23 months following the end of that war in 1988 Saddam Hussein launched a war on Kuwait, leading to the U.S. led Gulf war and the entry of the U.S. into a ground combat role, which was followed by the invasion of Iraq under George Bush after 9/11 attacks. The twin wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are estimated to have cost the U.S. over 1 trillion dollars. The result today is largely the division on the ground into Shia regions under the Revolutionary Guards and the Shiite government in Baghdad, and Sunni regions led by Islamic State and autonomous Iraqi Sunni tribes, ignoring the Iran-Iraq boundaries set in the colonial period by the French and the British. In all the amount spent in the Khomeini-Saddam war of $ 1 trillion being about $2 trillion in today's money, and the $1 trillion spent by the U.S., means about $3 trillion has gone into the wars in this region. This comes at a time of deficits in government budgets in the U.S. and a deep recession in the U.S. and Europe. It also explains why the U.S. public is reluctant to take even the minor action such as giving a standoff "no-fly zone" protection to the rebels in Syria, and supported the Obama administration in its reluctance to keep even the basic military force in place to protect its diplomatic mission in Libya, where the cost would be small relative to earlier enlarged military missions under the two elder and junior Bush administrations. The result is that refugees are pouring into Europe from Syria and Libya, through Turkey. Turkey itself is host to millions of refugees in camps along its border. The vacuum and the withdrawal of the Obama administration from the region has led to the rise of Islamic State with covert assistance from Sunni regimes in the region to counteract the growing influence of Shiite Iran. It also may explain the Iranian people's support for the nuclear weapons effort through years of sanctions, leading finally to an agreement with the Obama administration that relaxes sanctions in exchange for a future possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons. Lost in the conflict is the Arab Spring of 2012-2013, with the Tunisian democracy the only surviving result of that movement for democracy and awakening among Arab peoples. The Reagan administration in its aggressive anti-Soviet position made large errors- including ignoring human rights abuses and use of chemical weapons in the Iran-Iraq war, by supporting Iraq and reversing position after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, having a disastrous effect on the entire region decades later. Much of the Obama administration's reluctance for any action may stem from the U.S. role in this period and its consequences of protracted conflict. ...

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It makes for good political rhetoric, but in reality the flow of money goes both ways. A lot of investments are made by American companies overseas. This time the flow of oil money because of high oil prices, from the USA and Europe to the Middle East is being recycled back to the USA in the form of investments in the US through small equity stakes in companies and more so through purchases of capital equipment and services to build Saudi infrastructure projects. The $500 billion investment plan over several years in Saudi Arabia is to build everything from new cities, aluminium plants, electricity generation plants and chemicals and plastics plants. The fears and rhetoric are overblown, as the USA also invests overseas with holdings according to the Treasury department of $6 trillion of foreign stock and debt. The acceleration of foreign investment in the US is to be seen in the numbers, as the dollar gets weaker, and its more advantageous for Canadians and Euuropeans to invest here. Last year $414 billion of foreign investors money went into buying stakes in American companies and building factories and purchasing stock, according to Thomson Financial. Thats up 90% from 2006 and represented one fourth of all announced deals. This year in just 2 weeks foreign investors poured $22.6 billion in just the first 2 weeks of January, and that represents one half of all deals. Shows how quickly the picture is changing. One way of looking at it is that Americans buy a lot of foreign goods and the money Americans use to pay for a lot of imports is now being returned to the USA in the form of foreign investments. Note that foreign investment is desirable because it brings new ideas and technology and new management methods to the host country from other countries. These foreign investors in many cases are able to make these investments overseas because they are good at what they do, having them in the host country benefits the host country and shakes up competition in the particular industry in the host country that is receiving the investment. This is why economies once relatively unfavorable to foreign investors like Japan and S. Korea are now passionately seeking foreign investment to make their economies thrive through the exchange and inflow of new ideas and ways of doing things. The same can be and is true for the USA. The other aspect is that most of the investment is still from countries like Canada, Germany, Japan, S. Korea which are big free trade partners of the USA. Manufacturing investment is heavily skewed to European and Japanese companies. Foreign multinational investment (Sony, Toyota etc) grew to $43.3 billion in 2007 from $39.2 billion in 2006 according to OCO Monitor, and will accelerate significantly as companies like VW and other German companies find it cheaper to build in the USA and shift more manufacturing here. To get an idea why the rhetoric is overblown Canada spent the most in buying American companies, $65 billion in 2007, according to Thomson Financial. Russia spent $572 million and India $3.3 billion. How will this improve the chances of the USA making it out of this recession? Five million American work for foreign companies in the USA. Of these one third are manufacturing jobs. These jobs pay about 30% more than jobs in American owned companies. Figures from Treasury Department. There will be more of these jobs as companies like VW build plants here. Roubini Economics estimates that an infusion of about $300-400 billion is needed for the USA to overcome the effects of the current mortgage and credit crisis. $414 billion was invested in the USA by foreign investors according to Thomson Financial in 2007, going up from something like $200 billion in 2006. If this pace continues becasue of some of the same underlying reasons as the weaker dollar, stronger economies overseas, then $200 billion additional investments this year would add that much to a stimulus package of $150 billion by one estimate, to provide a boost of somewhere around $350 billion. In the range of the needed boost. Companies like IBM and GE which have significant investments in India and China and investments in software or infrastructure industries that are growing rapidly or Caterpillar with growth in construction overseas, may keep growing through this downturn. This recession may hit selectively and differently, not be a complete hit to the USA economy, and could prevent it from going beyond 2009 with recovery in 2010. ...

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Modernizing India's construction industry may be one of the keys to keeping global growth from slowing down significantly. Here's why. If China slows down significantly after almost two decades of breakneck growth since the 1990's, as nothing like that goes on forever and China is facing significant environmental challenges, skilled workers and managerial talent constraints, and demands for fair treatment and compensation for workers, that stem from this uncontrolled and haphazard growth and export drive. This would leave India as a potentially large engine for world growth if properly managed, a role China has played alongside the USA for so long. India's infrastructure is one of the critical hurdles to achieving this potential. And neither India or the world can afford not to overhaul India's construction industry which is a roadblock to accomplishing what needs to be done in infrastructure. As described here more than 80% of the people in the construction industry are unskilled workers, usually working as day laborers or migrant workers in tiny crews. The other 20% - the carpenters, welders, painters, tile layers, pipe fitters, brick layers, and other skilled trade workers, are becoming harder to recruit and those unskilled workers that receive basic training by companies like Reliance are keen on looking for better opportunities in the Gulf region. The unskilled workers work at construction sites with little training are mainly workers coming from agricultural areas and villages for better wages and living conditions. One of the striking things about Indian construction sites is the use of few machines with most of the unskilled workers, men and women, carrying loads of bricks on their heads, digging holes with shovels and cutting steel bars with mallets and moving sand with spades. There is a huge opportunity for foreign and Indian manufacturers of construction equipment and rapidly increasing production within India of all types of construction equipment should be one of the first things to be tackled. Special incentives by the government and efforts should be made to bring new foreign and domestic investment and plants for construction equipment. Big construction firms that handle large projects, construction equipment manufacturers worldwide and domestic firms interested in investing, and firms involved in large construction projects throughout the country should be brought together in executing the plans for modernization of the construction industry. Training of unskilled workers chosen and recruited for aptitude, discipline and interest in learning new skills from villages as opposed to just working with "nakas" should be initiated in large numbers. A new vocational training system should be initiated borrowing from ideas of systems in countries that have excelled in this in Europe such as Germany so that workers can go straight from villages or urban areas to vocational schools for training in a craft or trade in the construction industry or in the manufacturing industry. And living conditions have to be improved for workers so that skilled workers see advantages in remaining in India rather than leave their families behind for work in the Gulf, and unskilled workers have the basic but good living conditions, access to clean water, basic but decent housing, and clean toilets and showers, and kitchen facilities. One thing is clear one cannot reach organized and well though out development goals on the back of such a haphazard and ineffective sytem of using the human and machine resources in the best possible manner, and free markets and capitalism may not be the best guide in this matter. China's example may not be a good guide in this matter either. There has to be a better way where treating people right and using the most intelligent use of resources brings better results than haphazard approach as with week by week recruiting through "nakas" and minimal use of machines, and recycling of agricultural labor through free markets in labor. The haphazard approach rejects the idea that the training, the discipline and the well thought out approach on recruiting training and best use of human resources without losing sight of costs can lead to superior and continually improving results. The continual improvement and better methods in the construction industry would free up the infrastructure bottleneck and hurdle to growth. Then it would be best to take an original path to development which would be true to the Indian character and spirit and emphasis on education and thoughtful way of doing things, which means that India should make an efficient use of its human and machine resources, and take advantage of all its human resources and intelligent approaches to develop industry and agriculture and avoid the waste in human resources. ...

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Heeding Pascal is the best bet, words from Welch on global warming issue. Instead of taking sides how should business respond. It makes sense to do what Welch says. Now does this apply to other issues such as Hybrid cars how aggressively should one push hybrid technology. There are many aspects including that of image of being first in new technologies and being environmentally conscious, all of which can help in marketing. But hpw many will be sold? It depends on the price of gasoline? Again one will never know for sure what the price of gasoline will be just as one is not sure of global warming. But its a safe bet that companies that push these technologies will be in the best position in the years ahead even as prices of gasoline fluctuate.

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How changes in technology as wireless networks move from third generation technologies to fourth generation technologies and chnages in scale of investment by its customers can lead to huge writedowns for telecommnications equipment makers. Alcatel-Lucent is taking a Euro 2.52 billion writedown on its CDMA wireless technologies. Its also making the Alcatel-Lucent comination look murkier as integrating overlapping technologies and merging two companies and meeting customer needs all while the market itself is moving forward making technologies that are promising today look like yesterday's technologies in a short period of time. This is whats happening as broadband technologies are now the thing in wireless networks. And Alcatel's valuation of Lucent at $13 billion also looks like too much was paid for Lucent. In 4th quarter alone Alcatel-Lucent lost Euros 2.58 billion.

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One of the things Blackstone's Schwarzman calls for is principles based regulation. Rather than issue a whole set of new regulations every time things change in financial markets make regulation comprehensive so that no one is excluded not hedge funds like they are today, and all global financial players would have to be regulated under some unifying principle, and make regulation under a unified authority. But also have a set of guiding principles for regulating authority which it will follow. If this was done a lot of the damage that ocurred from extensive leveraging by investment banks could have been avoided, as investment banks would have been required to follow prudent financial practices to limit leveraging. And in other areas like mortgages prudent and safe financial practices would have been required.

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This Journal editorial points to a Philadelphia Fed study showing that students in the middle class with higher student debt are reluctant to start small business. The Fed study shows new firms with five employees declined by 17% on average for 2000-2010 in counties where relative student debt was up by 2.7%. The average student loan customer owes $28,000. Student debt has doubled from $547 billion in 2007 to over $1 trillion in 2015. As small business makes up about half of the private economy and generates 6 of 10 new jobs, the effects on small business show the damage being done rising student loan debt.