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U.S. President Obama's 2013 State of the Union address focussed on the problems facing the U.S. middle class, calling it "our generation's task" to tackle this problem. Economic changes have changed the patterns of economic growth and jobs, growth, income growth, that prevailed from the end of the Second World War to about 1989. But he offered few solutions beyond increasing the minimum wage to $9.00 from $7.25 to reduce poverty.

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Former U.S. president Bush says the U.S. has an important role as a beacon of freedom, human rights and democracy in the world. The U.S. should not shrink from the challenges in the name of a false and temporary stability, and flexibility should not mean ambiguity, difficulties should not mean shrugging away from America's role. Patience, creativity and active American leadership are needed. The Bush administration supported the struggles of people in central Europe and in other countries. This is from a speech Bush gave at the Bush Institute, Southern Methodist University in Dallas, a year into the Arab Spring. A speech that was giving voice to the aspirations of people in the Arab world.

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Japan's governing LDP party wins over two thirds of the seats in parliament in a snap election called one year before the end of the term in office. Prime minister Abe's popularity by summer 2017 dropped to about 30%, and yet with a divided opposition he managed to win the election with a large majority. The opposition led by the Democratic Party and Tokyo Governor Mrs Koike fragmented with the formation of new parties, Yuriko Koike's Party of Hope, and the Consitutional Democratic Party. Mrs. Koike failed to keep the opposition united with some missteps including asking for a loyalty pledge from candidates. This election win makes it possible for Abe to get a third term as leader of the LDP and eventually becoming the prime minister with the longest term in office. Abe had a poor start during his first effort as prime minister when he resigned in less than a year. This is a comeback for Shinzo Abe from that difficult period. Yet the constitutional changes to support Japan's Self Defense Forces with the growing threat from North Korea are not getting the same level of support. Opinion remains divided on that issue.  One aspect of this election is that very few women candidates are running for parliament. In contrast to the election in Britain with more women running for office and getting elected, in Japan's 2017 snap election less than 10% of candidates elected are women. ...

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There is a mixed picture behind the drop in investment in new oil exploration. The IEA estimates that overall investment will be down 15-20% in 2009. The number of drilling rigs in use globally fell 32% in the year to April 2009, to 2055, according to Baker-Hughes, an oilfield services firm. In America the number of rigs in use is down by 50%, and OPEC countries are cancelling 35 big projects, according to the OPEC secretary general, Salem Al-Badri. Cambridge Energy Associates estimates that 5.5 million barrels a day of capacity additions may not take place in the next couple of years, which is a third of expected net increase by 2014. Examine this a bit more closely and you find that the oil majors despite lack of access to oil in inhospitable terrain or foreign countries, are still holding up well in investment. Exxon increased capital spending by 5% in the 1st quarter 2009, and Shell and Chevron plan to invest the same in 2009 as in 2008, $31 billion and $23 billion. BP plans to go from $21 billion to $20 billion. Canadian Tar Sands investments are being reevaluated in the light of prices, and smaller companies like Devon Energy are cutting back, for Devon from $9 billion in 2008 to $4 billion in 2009. From the national oil companies the investments are holding up in Saudi Arabia, whereas they are faltering in Russia and cash strapped Venezuela. Saudi Aramco recently completed a 5 year project increasing capacity from 10m b/d to 12.5 b/d at cost of $70 billion. And another $60 billion is set aside for more investments which will be less vigorously pursued as Saudis have 4.5m b/d of idle capacity after production cutbacks by OPEC. Petrobras plans to increase its investment by 55% to $174 billion in the next 5 years in offshore discoveries challenged by deep waters and thick layers of salt. The oilfield services companies like Schlumberger are cutting back, with Schlumberger cutting investment in 2009 by 13% to $2.6 billion and shedding 5000 jobs. Baker Hughes shed 3000 jobs. Mature fields are also receiving less investment, so that the drop from mature fields will be 9.4% according to IEA instead of 7.7% projected earlier with larger investments. The picture described above shows investments by the Saudis, the majors, oil field services firms, investments in recovery improvements in mature fields, not in a precipitious decline. The picture is of cautious and careful investment and some pullbacks as the economies of the US suffered decline in GDP of 6% in the 1st quarter 2009 over prior year and the German and Japanese economies suffered decline of 15-16%. Even the most optimistic forecasts for China do not go above 8% for 2009. In the light of these growth estimates the moderate drop in investments in new oil exploration may match the moderation in growth in Asia and the drop in growth in the USA and Europe and Japan. The forecasts of steeply higher oil prices or spikes like those in 2007-2008 are based on the notion of a quick economic recovery. See the links to economic recovery on this. These links suggest that the current surge may not last as the basics for a recovery are weak. In the US foreclosures, toxic assets, housing, consumption and savings, and unemployment all indicate a weak economy for several years down the road. And it is this weakness that the oil investment exploration budgets may be responding to in amoderated manner. The latest sign of this weakness is the spread of foreclosures to prime borrowers with job losses, link NYT May 24, 2009. The Saudi king thinks that $75 is a fair price for oil. Current prices have taken oil to $60 a barrel, even as inventories remain strong with over 60 days of supply. No spikes like those in the past are realistic in this economic environment....

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The slowdown in China, the collapse of oil prices, and depreciation in emerging market currencies, suggest that low inflation in the U.S is likely to continue in 2016. This will make it harder for the U.S. Federal Reserve under Yellen to increase interest rates in 2016.

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Mexico's growth rate has averaged annual growth of below 2% for 2013-2015 under the Pena adminstration. Predictions were for growth of 5-6%. The investment in the oil industry is low with decline in demand for oil. The peso has dropped in value to 16 to the U.S. dollar in August 2015 compared to 13 in 2014. The popularity rating of the Pena administration dropped to 34% in August 2015.

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Agatha Sangma, at 28, is the youngest member of Parliament in India. Se was reelected from the Tura constituency in Meghalaya,, in India's northeast. She is minister of state for rural development in the newly elected Congress coalition government. Her father PA Sangma was a speaker in the Lok Sabha, India's Parliament. In India's system the cabinet minister has the biggest chunk of work and under him comes the minister of state. But considering how big the rural economy is in India, at over 40% of GDP and growing fast from a low base, its aposition of great responsibility for ayoung woman. Here she talks to Jyoti Malhotra of the WSJ. She is responsible for drinking water and sanitation. Access to drinking water, contamination of water, and water supplies for agriculture are a huge challenge for India. Agatha has studied environmental management in the UK, so she can bring knowledge of modern methods for managing water to her job. She likes to be responsible for implementing work in the rural areas, and has the youth and energy to travel and see things first hand for implementation. She says accountability is important for implementation and out in the field she can observe and ask questions. One of the problems she shees in implementation is properly using the funds allocated. This fund alone is 62,000 crores. And seeing that these funds are properly allocated and spent to generate the best use of the resources is critical for improving lives and meeting the needs for rural development. She sees room for experimenting, for innovation and bringing fresh ideas to this job. She seems to handle the interview questions quite well....

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Serious problems facing Turkey's economy. Turkey takes on too many risks as exports cannot keep up with rising imports leading to a severe current account imbalance. Official statistics show the economic growth at 11% in the first quarter, with the growth coming mainly from the construction, retail and financial sectors, and a result of a surge in demand and rapid credit growth. Imports expanded at 42.6% , and exports at 11.7%. The Turkish manufacturing sector has not strengthening its competitiveness. And increases in manufacturing output come from increased imports- with 85% of imports being commodities and semifinished goods, according to an Istanbul economist who contributed to a recent 350 page strategy report commissioned by the Erdogan government. Fast economic growth comes from rapid growth in credit, and consumption demand, but the underlying manufacturing competitiveness and economic fundamentals show warning signs. The government of prime minister Erdogan- distracted by politics and efforts to change the constitution- appears not to have grasped the urgency of the situation it faces....

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Jon Gertner makes several critical points about the importance of supporting and investing in manufacturing. The U.S. private sector in new industries such as alternative energy, and electric cars is competing not just with the private sector in Germany, S. Korea or Japan. It is competing with the governments of these countries which are investing heavily to build innovation and jobs in their home countries. Innovation, design and manufacturing are woven together in these new industries in a manner that is different from the iPhone/ iPad/ Search algorithms /Facebook software type industries dominated by names such as Apple, Google and Facebook. The software industries are the opposite of jobs intensive industries with Facebook having 2000 employees and Google having 29,000 employees. By comparison the lithium battery industry could generate over 62,000 jobs in the next 10 years, and the electric car industry as a whole with its supplier networks could generate much larger numbers of jobs. Because of the advanced technology involved these are good well paying jobs. The finance industry in the U.S. is attracted to the quick returns in the software related fields, leaving a gap for the American government to fill a role nurturing these industries. This would be similiar to the manner that the German and Japanese governments do working with their own private sector. The private sector in the U.S. needs only the early nurturing and can operate on its own by innovating its way to competitiveness in manufacturing and cost after the early years. Because of missteps in failing to support manufacturing in the U.S., the U.S. may have to import some of the technology from countries such as Japan and S.Korea to make up for these missteps. This is happening in the lithium ion battery manufacturing technology and facilities, which experts say is being successfully imported from these countries to the U.S.. The Obama administration has provided $2.5 billion dollars from the stimulus investments to support projects of 30 companies operating in the advanced battery technology field. This includes companies such as A123 Systems and LG Chem Power in Michigan. As a result of these efforts the Department of Energy estimates that by 2015 the U.S. will have the capacity to manufacture 40% of the world production of lithium batteries for the autombile industry. In 2009 the U.S. had capacity to manufacture 2% of the batteries....

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The problems Brazil faces with a sea of liquidity from developed countries with low interest rates going to emerging market countries with higher interest rates. Brazil is taking steps including a recent cut in interest rates to stem the flow. But interest rates at 12% are still too high not to attract business people in the carrying trade who borrow at low rates in the U.S. and Europe and invest the money in Brazil. The foreign direct investment has also increased. The result is an artificially overvalued currency- by as much as 36% since Jan 1, 2009 according to analysts- which hurts exporters and job creation in Brazil, as it becomes cheaper to import products than manufacture at home. Workers from VW recently protested in Sao Paulo as imports of cars are up significantly and there is a fear of job reduction at VW plants in Brazil. Brazil's automakers association estimate is for car imports to make up 25% of all cars sold in Brazil in 2011. This compares with 5% of cars sold being imported in 2005. It also shows up in production statistics. Brazilian industrial production declined by 1.6% in June 2011 from May. The cost of inputs are increasing rapidly for labor, raw materials, transportation, making Brazil a costly place to do business. The cost of living is now higher in Sao Paulo than in New York city. Cynthia Benedetto, the CFO of Embraer, a large Brazilian aircraft maker, says she always thought since she was a little girl that Brazil was the place of the future. But its deceptive now that the future is here, because this euphoria of progress could be shortlived. Embraer is investing in technology to reduce labor costs and is opening factories overseas. Bombardier, one of Embraer's competitors from Canada recently announced plans to build a manufacturing plant in Mexico. Brazilian president Rousseff is aware of this, and told Latin American leaders in Lima, Peru: "we have to defend ourselves against this immense, fantastic, extraordinary sea of liquidity that finds its way to our economies in search of returns that it can't find in its own." At the same time Rousseff has election promises to fulfill that require larger spending and for which the capital inflows are convenient but could prove erratic- for social welfare projects, and for infrastructure spending in advance of the Olympics. Turkey is seeing a similiar situation with booming consumer credit sustained by capital inflows even as its manufacturing competitiveness has remained weak. ...