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Keller reflects on Putin and Russia's effort to pull Ukraine away from the European Union as protests continue in Ukraine.

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US president Biden makes three nominations to the US central bank, the Federal Reserve. Lisa Cook's nomination to the central bank is confirmed in the Senate 51-50. Following the appointment of Lael Brainard to the central bank as vice chairwoman, president Biden has nominated Cook, the first Black woman on the Federal Reserve board from Michigan State University. He has also nominated Mr. Jefferson of Davidson College to the Federal Reserve board. A fourth nomination is of Michael Barr, a law professor, as the Federal Reserve's vice chair of supervision. Lael Brainard served under president Clinton and is on the board of the Fed since 2014. She was Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs from 2010 to 2013, coordinating economic policy at G-7 meetings during that time. Jerome Powell, the current chairman of the US central bank is being renominated as chairman by president Biden after Powell's term expired in February. Lisa Cook's research focus was on policies that promote broad economic opportunities for women and racial minorities. She served on the Council of Economic Advisors under the Obama administration, and has worked at the Treasury Department. With Janet Yellen at Treasury and Jerome Powell and Brainard at the US central bank there is a shift to policies that will promote president Biden's agenda for his first term to invest in infrastructure, supply chain renewal and working class families in America. ...

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What better way to sit back and relax this October fall season with an American pasttime. BBC Sports tells you everything you want to know about New York Yankees LA Dodgers baseball including videos. Did you know that- Not since 1981 have the New York Yankees met the LA Dodgers in the World Series baseball. That the Brooklyn Dodgers played the New York Yankees before 1981 in cross city rivalry 7 times. The Brooklyn Dodgers became the Los Angeles Dodgers when the team moved to the opposite coast in 1957. Gerrit Cole of Yankees is Cy Young Award pitcher of the year and the Dodgers pitching staff including Flaherty who dominated the NY Mets have 33 scoreless post season innings. Yankees all star Aaron Judge has equalled he batting record of Babe Ruth and Joe DiMaggio. Japan's Shohei Ohtani of the LA Dodgers holds the 50-50 record of 50 home runs and 50 runs batted in record in American baseball. Yankke hitters Giancarlo Stanton, Juan Soto and Anthony Rizzo are pitted against LA Dodgers  hitter Mookie Betts, Teoscar Fernandez and Freddie Freeman. In Game 1 Giancarlo and Freddie hit home runs with Freddie hitting a walkoff Grand Slam. Schedules of all games are shown here starting in LA, going to NY and ending in LA. ...

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The Washington Post gives the green light to most of the nominees of DJT except Pete Hegseth at Defense, RFK Jr. at Health and Human Services, Tulsi Gabbard for National Intelligence, and Russell Vought for Office of Management and the Budget (OMB). RFK Jr has support for his stand on obesity and drug costs, if he convinces the Senate on vaccines. Jamieson Greer was Deputy Trade Representative under USTR Robert Lighthizer, Greer and Stephen Miran at Council of Economic Advisers give DJT the resources to create a level playing field for America in world trade, business and manufacturing at home, to reverse the lack of government support of three decades that destroyed much of American manufacturing. Elise Stefankik is a good choice of young Congresswoman from upstate NY who has potential to put America's position before the world.  Kristi Noem brings good experience at Homeland Security as 2 term governor of South Dakota, and experience in Congress. Dough Borghum is a two term governor of North Dakota and is a good choice for Interior Secretary. Tom Homan as Border Security Head complements Noem and Borghum as a Border Patrol Agent who has worked, the WSJ says, under 6 administrations including the Obama administration and is likely to combine immigration goals of DJT with realism. Homan would focus on getting immigration right so that the migration issue is resolved cutting out crime, illegal migration, and restoring the southern border.    ...

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Over the short run Europe presents some opportunities after Germany's Merz gets the constitutional brake on spending removed and plans $1 trillion in spending on infrastructure and defense. The US is busy with immigration and other challenges, and tariffs are part of the effort to stop fentanyl on Canada, Mexico and China. This poses uncertainty for business in 2025 which should gain clarity as most tariffs are meant to ensure a level playing field and India, China, EU, Mexico, Canada cannot argue with the idea of we charge them what they charge us, as reciprocal tariffs, as fairness in trade. These countries have reason to cooperate as it is basically fair trade DJT administration is after. Japan cooperated so history shows it can be done and Lighthizer was Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan when he got the Japanese to cooperate and be fair. His deputy is Jameson, now US Trade Representative in 2025. They are no ideologues, just fed up with the way things are and US carrying the trade imbalances and shipping manufacturing overseas that hurts ordinary Americans. US exceptionalism is seen as prevailing after a period in which American companies gain a footing in a level playing field and unfair advantages China, EU other nations had are corrected for investors in the UK, Australia, India and many European countries. It also gives American companies a chance to retool for a new business environment that can offer more opportunities and markets including in India and Europe. ...

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Efforts to bring the two sides together for ceasefire succeed for Black Sea but hit snags along the way. Russia wanting to get sanctions lifted on it's Agricultural Bank to lift grain and fertilizer exports. A separate deal on not attacking energy infrastructure was negotiated.  Fundamentally NATO needed to be reconstituted at the end of the Cold War. Russia's apparent weakness was temporary as it converted to a market economy from the Soviet model. It's GDP is not a correct representation of it's capabilities and need for respect as an advanced European economy. With US-Russian cooperation nothing like Syria and Venezuelan disasters would have happened disrupting the fabric of American and European democratic systems. Russian conditions include ones that were clear from the early days of the war. Ukraine joining NATO threatens Russian security. That this was not to be allowed. And Ukraine to relinquish territory now controlled by Russia in Crimea and in Ukraine's east. DJT in the US has ruled out joining NATO for Ukraine. These territories have been integrated into Russia and it is unlikely that this would change so that continuation of the war after so many lives are lost doesn't make sense. Europeans particular Baltic Republics and Poland are concerned about Russian intentions- this too is not going to change by continuation of the war. It can be addressed by putting in concrete safeguards. ...

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As many as 2 million votes in the 2014 Afghanistan elections are called into question. This is 2 million out of a total of 8 million. In the last election it is estimated 1.3 million fradulent votes were made for Hamid Karzai. This time it is said security officials, government officials and others worked together to get as many as 2 million votes for Asraf Ghani, who Karzai supports. This is happening even as the Taliban are increasing attacks in the country and the Americans are withdrawing. It shows that instead of a withdrawal that the Obama administration promised their appears to be a situation that is no different from that of the Bush administration, where American lives were lost and sacrifices made without even the most basic results- no assurance that if the government collapses from strains within and outside, Taliban and terrorism could not happen again as is hapening in Iraq.

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This Buttonwood column in the Economist after the British 2015 general election says the election results show serious dissatisfaction with the political class. Labor was never forgiven for the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis, and the "lost decade" in terms of decline in real wages and no improvements in the standard of living since then. The SNP because it is not tainted by these actions did better as a fresh face and authentic voice in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats suffered from their participation in the coalition government and the austerity years. The Conservatives benefitted from the problems and the crisis of confidence faced by the other major parties. The column asks the question about whether austerity can ever be a vote winning strategy. And it points out that the Conservative party won 37% of the vote compared to 36% in 2010. Labor went from 29% in one of the worst results ever in 2010 to 31%. UK Independence Party gained 13% vote share with increase in English nationalism. Behind all this it says is the general disillusion with the political class in Europe. And the Conservatives should take care lest the dissensions in the party with the EU referendum lead to a divided party. ...

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James Stewart of the NYT describes the remarkable turnaround at Best Buy executed by Hubert Joly, a graduate of the French Etudes de Politiques in Paris and former CEO of Swedish hotel and travel company Carlson. He did this by carefully analyzing the areas where Best Buy was falling short and not delivering for customers a winning proposition. Statistics showed Best Buy had fallen behind on price. One survey showed only 23% of respondents found Best Buy prices were lowest, compared to 71% for Wal-Mart, 56% for Amazon, and 38% for Target. That Wal-Mart and Target are able to hold their own- in the case of Target with 38% along with some other advantages of customer targeting- against showrooming and internet retailers such as Amazon, and the 56% for Amazon which showed Amazon was itself not a price leader, gave Jolly insights into the strategy to pursue. Jolly took out costs elsewhere and made Best Buy the place where the shopper would get the lowest price and much more in terms of convenience, service and advice. The strategy has worked but Jolly is not complacent saying that in this business your success is only as good as your last call. Best Buy's stock is up 240% and is one of the best three stocks of 2013....

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Dennis Berman takes a very instructive and reflective look at what happened in history, the thirties when something like what we are seeing now happened, a huge global downturn. One thing that is being repeated is the tendency to think that things will recover maybe in 2009 or 2010. But oftentimes this is not the way it turns out. President Hoover said to the American people in May 1930, " I am convinced that we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover." Hoover is now seen negatively but a visit to the museum section of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University shows that he was a geological engineer, well travelled to other countries, was President of Stanford when it was a small school, and was active in relief efforts for Russia in the years of civil war after the first world war. Was he less compassionate than FDR, was he less educated, and less aware of conditions in other countries than FDR, and less determined than FDR? Could it be that he did not realize the depth of the downturn that lay ahead and for this reason failed to take more aggressive action? WIth FDR, less well known as Berman points out, is the period of 1936 and 1937 covered in the book "The Forgotten Man", a popular history of the Depression by Amity Shlaes. The Federal Reserve used New Deal laws to tighten reserve requirements on the nation's banks. The goal was to make the banks stronger, but the unanticipated result was that the banks tightened still further. This aggravated things in the economy when it was still stuck in difficulties. The Dow Jones Average fell by more than a third between August 1937 and January 1938. Unemployment jumped. Historians call it the 'depression within the Depression. Just a year before this period, FDR predicted in 1935, "Never since my inauguration in March 1933, have I felt so unmistakably the atmosphere of recovery." Berman reminds us that the main force in the economy at this time however well intentioned is the government. And the government is at the whims of politicians, and the error proneness of human beings in positions of responsibility, with so many decisions taken on an ad hoc basis, responding to emergencies and dire situations as they arise, with not enough time for careful thought, and often with little sleep. The AIG intervention has already taken $177 billion in government money in a few months, and everything is being done on a crash basis with little preparation mostly in response to surprises popping up in financial markets. As Frank Rich points out the danger to the President's plans and vision is not from the work outlined for education, energy, health care, or Republicans, as much as it is from this uncertain element about available capital to make the wheels of the economy move again to sustain employment and incomes....

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The Europeans led by France and Germany demand stricter regulation and a financial regulatory system that oversees the entire financial system, and oversees all the larger countries. The US in contrast wants to see a lighter regulatory system, and lighter regulation of parts of the financial system like hedge funds. For the USA where the crisis originated, the emphasis is on larger stimulus spending. For the Europeans which have a larger safety net that they would like to see considered as part of their stimulus- and their social arrangement such as reduced hours in Germany to avoid layoffs, and the presence of a large public sector in France that is about 52% of GDP- the situation as they see it does not require breaking the EU's committment to control large deficits. The cultural and historical roots are also different. Germany was hit by hyperinflation in the period between the two wars, and there is thought there that this helped the rise of demagogic leaders and the collapse of democracy there. At that time the issue was war reparations that Germany found difficult to absorb in an economy devastated by the first war, which strained German finances. France and Germany also have no foreclosure crisis, and car sales and consumer spending are not in the deep decline that is seen in the USA. In fact car sales have increased in the two countries with the refunds for scrapping old vehicles, with no such plan in place in the USA. Making there is a credible position on the European side. Germany does see itself hit by the collapse in international trade. Germany and France face the prospect of helping their banking systems deal with the large bad loan situation facing them in Eastern Europe. At the same time Germany and France want to save some firepower for coming to the aid of key parts of the European community like Spain, Greece, and Ireland, which are facing a worsening crisis. In short both sides have credible positions, and some form of accomodation as events unfold may be a better desired outcome than some unified outcome. And little has been said of the position of the other countries in the G20, the emerging countries like Brazil, India, China, Russia, Indonesia, Argentina and others, and the position of the World Bank speaking for the poorest countries. These countries may favor stronger stimulus, and would favor the stricter regulation and supervision of global financial systems favored by the Europeans. This is because they may rightly feel that the messups in the global financial system have stolen their chance, at just the point where they were turning the corner in their efforts at bringing better standards of living to their peoples....

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A 2004 rule made under SEC Chairman Donaldson and requested by the investment banks one of which Goldman Sachs was headed by Paulson changed the whole playing field and created the dangerous situation of huge leveraging that has led to the collapse of some of these banks. Older regulations limited the amount of debt that these investment banks could take on. With the new rule billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses could now be used by these banks to invest in mortgage securities and credit derivatives, a form of insurance for bond holders. Others on the SEC who supported it included Goldschmid, an authority on securites law at Columbia who asked relevant questions but relied on the assurance of Annette Nazareth, head of market regulation that under the new rules the investment banks would also be restricted by the commission from risky activity, that under the new rule the SEC would be able to look into the books of the parent companies and subsidiaries of the investment banks. But no detailed and strict oversight methods were laid out, and instead these banks were allowed to go out on their own without any restrictions. The riskiness of investments would be measured by the computer models and brains not of the SEC but of the investment banks themselves. And these banks went on a leveraging binge with 33 to 1 for Bear Stearns which collapsed in 2008. One lone dissenter was a person who wrote the computer models to determine the riskiness of investments which were used by the banks, was at the University of Chicago, and was a risk management expert. He cautioned in a letter that these computer models had failed in the 1997 LTCM collapse and could not be relied on as environments change. At the SEC oversight was handled by 7 people and this was to oversee some $4 trillion in assets, hopelessly understaffed, and most of them believing that the investment banks would self police themselves as they were ideologically believers in deregulation. So no inspections were done for an year and half upto August 2008 even when there were clear signals of trouble according to an Inspector General's report. This group had no director since March 2007. Soon after the rule Donaldson the SEC chairman left and a Congressman from a conservative district in California became Chairman, Christopher Cox. He favored deregulation and may not have even been aware that the 2004 rule had created a new and dangerous environment, so he followed his instincts and even dismantled a risk management unit Donaldson had established. Which is why McCain has called for his firing....