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US president Biden created the largest boom in manufacturing since the space race in the 1960's. It is now at risk because of failures early in 2021-2022 in the Biden administration trying to be humane in migrant policy, but in reality also because of the bigger issues of the pandemic, vaccine skepticism, the economy, the Ukraine war in Feb. 2022 that delayed action till 2023, and the unanticipated complete collapse of Venezuela's economy leading to migrant surge. The Border was closed in 2024 by president Biden. When Trump blocked passage of Republican legislation supported by Biden, senior Republicans asked Biden to block migrant entry by executive order, Biden acted and the Border was closed. Will it now reverse the biggest manufacturing boom the US has had since 1960? How much blame should Biden take when he acted forcefully on all fronts- the pandemic, vaccines, manufacturing, and on no. 4 by closing the southern Border in 2024 by executive order? ...

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Neil Irwin in the NYT why the U.S. China Phase 1 Trade Agreement is more than a hill of soyabeans as he puts it, more than about all the soyabeans that the U.S. farmers can sell to China. China's economy was seeing the effect of U.S. tariffs. Additional tariffs to cover all imports from China to the U.S. would have worsened this. China avoided this by agreeing to Phase 1. The U.S. had looked for some enforcement mechanism based on China putting this down in a written agreement particularly for avoiding subsidies to state enterprises and improper access to U.S. advanced technologies. China's reluctance to do this led to Mr. Trump saying that China had reversed its position and Trump expanding the tariffs stage by stage. These issues are now set aside for Phase 2 still to be negotiated. Both sides taking what they could get. China relief from the threat of tariffs on all exports. The U.S. under Mr. Lighthizer's negotiating leadership retaining the enforcement idea through the tariffs that are still in place of 25% on half of China's exports to the U.S. The bonus for Mr. Trump is the goodwill China generates by agreeing to buy all the U.S. farmers can produce, farmers having not only stood behind Mr. Trump but also forming a key part of his support base. China will continue to compete in technological areas with the U.S., and the state enterprise model which worked for China as Mr. Xi tells visitors will continue. Phase 2 is just that Phase 2, when and if it can be negotiated between Trump with his negotiator Lighthizer and Xi with his negotiator Liu He. On key points neither side is budging. A key goal for Mr. Trump is to put the trade surplus China enjoys of $300 plus billion a year with the U.S. on a serious downward path, and bring so many of the jobs and manufacturing back home. On this trade data for 2019 and the plan for 2020 of both countries is clear. It should be down each year by 10-20% for the next few years, a major achievement of Mr. Lighthizer, who did the same with  Japan under president Reagan. ...

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Gerlad Seib in the WSJ points out that other issues may be distractions, the no. 1 issue for Democrats in the U.S. is to get back the blue collar workers it has lost. One thing he says Democrats need to stop is to talk down to blue collar workers on cultural issues this can happen even without knowing it, as blue collar workers may sense it differently. He points out that the migration issue has divided the centrist parties as we point out in the insights provided by Jose de Cordoba in the article on Guatemalan migration in today's WSJ. This has happened in the U.S., Britain and in European Union countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and in Eastern Europe.  In the U.S. it is this drift to tech support, to pushing trade agreements such as TPP that hurt manufacturing,  and moving away from bread and butter issues of working families that have led to a drift away for Democrats from their usual base with working class people. The Labour Party in Britain has sensed this, and the CDU, the SDP in Germany are beginning to recognize that migration and austerity regimes for the economy need not be a distraction from basic issues with the end of the Merkel years, yet the Democratic Party is yet to find its footing in the U.S. ...

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Paul Krugman's response to Arthur Laffer's recent article warning of the dangers of inflation and rising interest rates, as the monetary base is rapidly expanded by the Fed. Krugman points out that there is one thing Laffer omitted to mention. This is the third time in history that a major economy is facing a liquidity trap, where interest rate cuts have reached their limit, and policymakers and the Fed have to use unconventional measures to keep the economy from a steep descent. Krugman says a rising monetary base isn't inflationary when the economy is in a liquidity trap . He cites facts that the monetary base of the USA doubled between 1929 and 1939, but prices fell 19%. Japan's monetary base rose 85% between 1997 and 2003 but deflation continued in Japan. To reverse course now would repeat the mistakes of that period. And he says the US was experiencing growth in 1937 and 1996, when policy makers reversed course pushing the economy back into a descent, whereas today the US is facing negative growth. ...

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This report in the WSJ gives a detailed profile of Liu He, who as vice premier and top regulator is now a top economic official in charge of the financial system and the industrial sector. The appointment will be confirmed at the annual meeting of China's legislature in March 2018. Liu He is a classmate of Jinping at Beijing's Middle School 101, went to Renmin University for a degree in Industrial Economics, and studied at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard. As the superregulator and overseeing the central bank, Liu He's team has set the goal of bringing financial risks in the Chinese economy under control in 3 years. This team also setup the 2018 economic blueprint that made "Xi Thought" the guiding principles for running China's economy. Financial risks in China's economy from the high debt to GDP ratio which worsened after the 2008 financial crisis and higher lending practices, are seen as a threat to the economy. Policy now is focused on stabilizing the economy and setting a long term path to slower but sustained growth, so that the entire country can share in the benefits of modernization that the coastal regions and parts of the country in the east have experienced during a period of rapid growth. Even the quashing of term limits for presidentcould be seen in the light of this economic blueprint as financial risks could lead to other serious problems if a stable path for the economy is not set and followed over the next decade. As part of this effort Xi Jinping has focused his efforts on corruption to improve perception of the party in the country. Liu He is the main economic official speaking for Jinping at Davos Forum. Another member of the circle advising Jinping is Wang Quishan, who has helped run the anti-corruption campaign. Both Liu He and Wang are expected to handle the future relationship with the U.S. Liu He's policy ideas are for strengthening the state sector with mega mergers, closing less profitable competitors, reducing industrial overcapacity, and making the remaining companies stronger and more profitable. This includes making firms more efficient, better run and more profitable- in the words of the economic blueprint to make "state capital stronger, better and bigger."   ...

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Jack Welch, former head of GE (General), says there is something that does not add up in the Labor Dept numbers for unemployment in Sept. 2012 showing that the unemployment rate declined from 8.1% to 7.8%, because experts estimate the economy has to generate more than 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth. The number of jobs generated for 2012 are lower than this number. Another measure of unemployment which shows the underutilization of labor in America, which the U.S. Federal Reserve's Bernanke looks at because it is ameasure of how effectively the U.S. is using the productive resources of the country, is U-6. U-6 covers people in parttime jobs who cannot find full time jobs and this has remained unchanged at 14.7% for Sept. 2012 according to the Labor Department.

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Elelven of twelve Fed Governors support the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates low till unemployment falls below 6.5%, as long as inflation remains subdued at 2-2.5% and inflation expectations are low. Only the Fed governor of Richmond expressed a dissenting vote. The Fed in its policy statement said it was addressing the problems of the last three years in housing and joblessness. Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed put it this way in a Sept 2011 speech- suppose the inflation rate was 5% when the target was 2%, then central banksers at the Fed would have acted as if their hair was on fire to tackle inflation, then why shouldn't the Fed do the same for unemployment. He succeeded in convincing Bernanke, Yellen and other Fed governors. Bernanke emphasized the enormous cost in human potential and productive capacity of the U.S. economy from high unemployment and people dropping out of the labor force.

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A new $490 billion aid package in Japan is designed to help families and small business. Families with small children will get $900 per child and small business will get $22,000 each if they can show they were affected by the pandemic. Wage increases for nurses and care workers. Economy minister Yamagiva in the new Fumio Kishida government says this aid will "bring security and hope to the people by rebuilding the economy." Japan is following the US by providing aid to the people and business to help rebuild after the lingering effects of the pandemic. In the US president Biden is expected to pass a $2 trillion package including help for child care, paid leave for caregivers and mothers, other aid, and a big investment to tackle climate change.

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Shiller points out that statistical models used by economists can't quantify the risk of a double-dip recession. Confidence indexes show gradual trends so they too are poor at picking up the dangers inherent in the increasing levels of uncertainty and the increasing vulnerability of confidence in the economy. The potential of sudden events in derailing confidence is great. He cites the 10 percent drop in the U.S. stock market on May 6, as one example. And the potential of the BP oil spill creating havoc for the Gulf economy is another such event. Shiller says his definition of a douple dip recession looks at the long term, and doesn't see the short term as a way to correctly read the economic situation. He sees a douple dip recession as a rise in unemployment to high levels, and becomes sticky after that, only nudged down insignificantly. Before unemployment can be brought down a second recession occurs, and there could be years in between. Shiller's Buy-on-Dips stock Market Confidence Index prepared since 1989 shows a steady decline in individual investor confidence since 2009....

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The US now leads a new 12 nation economic alliance meant to advance the 4 pillars of digital economy, supply chain renewal, defense, and transparency plus good governance. The alliance includes partners Japan, South Korea, with Australia, India and Indonesia and other ASEAN nations. On his first trip to Asia president Biden said at the launch announcement of the US led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity in Tokyo- "The future of the 21st Century economy is going to largely be written in the Indo-Pacific- in our region. We're writing the new rules." Behind this announcement one senses a lot of preparatory work has already been done in discussions with key partners in Japan and South Korea, as well as with India, Indonesia and other ASEAN nations. In terms of population the countries involved may exceed 2 billion people with the largest GDP in the world. With other links such as the US EU Trade and Technology Council the group encompasses most of the industrialized world. Combined with Latin America this would reach about 3 billion people. With Biden setting a new vision for the Free World after another US president Harry Truman did this in the years following the Second World War. ...

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Joseph Stiglitz writes that keeping the dollar as the reserve currency is no longer the option. He tells us that it comes with some hidden costs such as a weaker global economy. Having developing countries keep hundreds of billions of dollars in the US in low interest earning reserves makes no sense considering the needs of developing countries, and the improved prospects for the USA and Europe in exports to a growing developing country economies. He points out that a new global reserve currency, with an orderly transition, may be the most important reform to ensure the longterm health of the world's economy. Its bad for the USA to keep exporting T-bills, says Stiglitz, as it does not create jobs. And its bad for all concerned as it lowers global economic growth. Especially he says when it is so unseemly for developing countries not to use the money to improve living standards in their own countries, with the help of exports from developed countries, that in the end improves global growth and the global future....

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David Brooks on the contrast of old stye politics with flamboyant displays of emotion of Joe Biden and the more restrained expressions in today's world with policy focussed candidates such as Paul Ryan. This was on ample display in the 2012 U.S. vice presidential debate. Brooks says independent voters may be turned off by a confrontational attitude, especially now that bipartisanship will be important to navigate through the challenges presented by debt and the deficits. These independent voters will also be looking for a credible plan to turn the economy around in the next four years.

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Liberal lawyers in particular have held back the efforts of president Biden for the government's role in bringing fairness and building better for the economy, says Ezra Klein in the NYT podcast. He says liberals are complicit with Conservatives in restricting president Biden's agenda for Building Better Stronger and for working families, manufacturing and infrastructure building in the US.

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DFA's David Booth runs paasive investing funds with assets of $800 billion. He asked Errol Morris to do this documentary on passive investing called "Tune Out the Noise," offered now free on You Tube for 1 month. It shows the idea of passive investing inthe market by investing in a basket of stocks covering and representing the whole US economy.

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Barton Swaim editorial page writer of the WSJ on Vladimir Putin Weekend Interview with Beatrice de Graaf of Utrecht Uiversity and Niels Drost of Clingendael Institute in The Hague, Netherlands - how Western World missed Czar Peter the Great's World View and its shaping Putin's World View creating vast misconceptions when US thinks Russia thinks like western norms.  Could the US have missed a key component of the thinking of Russian leaders in putting themselves in the line of Russian kings (Czars) since the Enlightenment with belief in nationality, autocracy and Empire of the Enlightenment. “Of course he (Putin) also refers to the Second World War, and he does refer to Stalin—but not that much. Far more often he talks about the great Russian czars.” And the great Czars that was important to Putin, de Graaf counts 3000 statues built in Russia to these role models for Putin. In the early years says de Graaf Putin talked incessantly about the modernization of Russia, Russia joining the Modern World in the years of the Enlightenment, Russia fighting off Napoleon and under the Soviets Nazi Germans. Graaf says he talked about- “Peter the Great and European interests, of Catherine the Great and literacy and the Enlightenment. He spoke of Alexander I and Europe joining to defeat Napoleon." Deep down Putin felt in these talks 11,000 of them on the Putin site which puts up his speeches and talks over a 20 year period, which Niels Grost with his fluency in Russian has looked at. Of these 3000 talks and speeches are in this reference to the great Czars. Even before Ukraine there was a sense of hurt that considering the vast expanse that Russia occupies in Europe Russia had by restoring the old Russia by 2000 found itself in a odd predicament. As de Graaf and Swain point out the US market based economy based on GDP, the US presidents such as Bush and Obama saw Russia as a  middle power based on its exports and imports, its trade, its commerce which was the only way they could see the world. This led to a special kind of shortsightedness says this interview in the WSJ. Putin's key adviser says of Russia's goal - to be seen as a Northern European Power (from WSJ) in 2025.Putin sees Russia as looking for "respect," as a goal.  This is where US business may have got it all wrong- the authors say about China and India- and the US, seeing themselves as Empires not in today's Modern World as with imperialist ambitions, but with a historic sense of regional presence across Asia and North America with their rapid modernization. DJT's talk of Canada as a 51st state, one finds US business as accepting the idea that Canada is part of the US regional influence. And under the Monroe Doctrine of 1824 revived by no less than Teddy Roosevelt and FDR, in its cooperation form by JFK in 1960, the regional influence of the United States in the Western Hemisphere is also accepted by US business and the American public. It is this context that the authors say offer an alternative view of the Russian leader and his policies. Beatrice de Graaf and Niels Drost are the author of "Putin's Czarist Dream" At that point there is in addition to nationality, autocracy and Empire of the czars the ideas embedded in Eastern Orthodox Christianity which are different says de Graaf of Utrecht University in Netherlands, from Western Christianity. This Eastern Orthodox Christian idea is a bit different from St. Augustine's just war and discussion of what constitutes a just war, and the definition of that being given under Russian tradition by Russian Czars or leaders who Putin identifies himself with such as Peter the Great. Peter the Great  created the beginnings of Russia as a modern European state in St. Petersburg during the years of the Enlightenment. In the Eastern Asian tradition the Bhagavad Gita also has a discussion of what constitutes a just war so that it extends to different regions of the world not just European. ...

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Prodigous investments in AI data centers is crowding out investment in essential infrastructure that would cut the cost of living in the US. Such as investment in pharmaceuticals in the US, investment in automobiles and rare earth processing, in housing and schools would reduce cost of living by bringing down prices and provide huge human returns for every dollar spent in addition to larger profits over a long period. Shown here is the AI data center for Microsoft in Atlanta. Microsoft has invested $34 billion the first fiscal quarter of 2025 alone, with similar investments by Amazon, Tesla, Google, and others for $400 billion capital allocation in 2026. Investments are also being crowded out in the replacing of the aging infrastructure of the US  of roads, rail, subways systems, transport systems, bridges, airports and ports. Some of these investments such as in ports and logistics are needed to make America a manufacturing and exporting nation. Economists loved to talk about crowding out of investment by the private sector when the government spending was significantly higher as during and after World War II. Today there is little talk about the massive misallocation of capital in the US economy. Where public infrastructure is ravaged by time and mismanagement as in New York political trends are calling for free public transport  and supported grocery stores in NYC, when the root cause the overall picture of the Nation's spending in rebuilding America is ignored or unaddressed, which would get to the root cause of the cost of living and quality of life issues that concern all the people of this Nation. ...

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A comprehensive study on immigration's impact on the U.S. by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine in 2016, looks at the broad fiscal and economic impacts of immigration. On the drawbacks the new immigrants can lead to lower wages for earlier waves of immigrants and high school dropouts. It can also burden government finances, education budgets at local and state levels. On the plus side it leads to more innovation, entrepreneurship and technological change in the economy. Other facts that are new in the report and run against the popular narrative are that 53% of immigrants had at least some college, including 16% with graduate education, as of 2012- which explains the technological impact of being open to immigrants. It is this that helps lift overall growth says the report- "the prospects for long run economic growth in the United States would be considerably dimmed without the contributions of high-skilled immigrants." About 42.3 million immigrants live in the U.S. in 2014, 13% of the population, increasing from 24.5 million or 9% in 1995. Unauthorized immigrants doubled in this period to 11 million.  A surprising result considering the popular idea of anti-immigrant sentiment in the U.S. is that a WSJ/NBC poll shows 54% of respondents saying immigration helps more than it hurts. In 2006 only 45% to 42%, considered immigration as beneficial to the country. Immigration is an issue today even though in recent years the large scale deportations under the Obama administration and difficulty finding jobs have reduced the flow of immigrants - since 2009 about 300,000-400,000 new unauthorized immigrants arriving and similar number leaving.   ...

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As the economy improves in Mexico a new optimism brings people from other countries to Mexico. Government figures in th U.S. and Mexico show as many Americans going to Mexico as Mexicans coming to the U.S., marking a new beginning in U.S. relations with Mexico.

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China's manufacturing sector contracts in June with the PMI index dropping below 50 - to 49.0.  Exports were also coming in lower. Experts say the increase in interest rates by the US is reducing imports of Chinese goods into the US. This comes as local governments are strained in their finances by $900 billion, and a budding revolt is taking place from property buyers with developers in financial trouble, as reported in the WSJ. Psychological hurdles now loom in the loss of confidence in the public in the property sector, loss of confidence of foreign investors with many constraints in operating, mental health issues for the population in many cities with the covid lockdowns.   The growth has slowed to 0.4% and there is now a realization dawning that there was overdependence both on property sector and foreign investment that set up new factories offshored from the US and Europe that alienated the public in these countries. Unlike wih the situation of Japan in the sixties and seventies for modernizing its economy growth of the scale China was pushed into by misguided and self interested  business interests in the US including its investment banks and local government officials in China without restraint by the central government in Beijing, ultimately led to trade friction and permanent damage to US China friendly relations. Communities in the US and the EU simply could not cope with the hyper growth from hyper shift of factories from the home countries to China that pushed this hyper growth. The property sector played the same role in the domestic front with too big a burden carried by it resulting in hyper growth. This did not have to happen. It happened because of a lack of understanding that this would have consequences in the longer run which is now showing up. ...

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Action to tackle the cost of living crisis taken by G-7 countries France, Germany, Italy, Canada, US, is shown here in The Guardian. France and Germany have taken the strongest action to protect lower income people, the US with the Inflation Reduction Act has taken broad steps to limit healthcare costs and invest in the economy. The UK appears to be the weakest in taking action and the new budget of Mr. Kwarteng is seen in this way as failing to protect vulnerable parts of the population.

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19 percent of China's exports went to the US in 2017, in 2024 this is 15%, but wait, the difference of 4 percent it is simply coming back to the US but through Southeast Asia. As a result some of the same issues that puzzled Trump negotiators exist today. China's exports surged 12.7% in October 2024 over the prior year. Biden was facing this situation and had yet to respond to the surge in exports to US. These exports were sent to Mexico and to Southeast Asia to circumvent the tariffs. It is the same situation revisited in 2024 with two other aspects of the Chinese economy-economic stimulus gets smaller and the housing and construction industry has imploded, the economy has slower growth. The overall price level in the US with a 60% tariff plus 10% for all countries would be 0.72 addition to the price level of 1.10 percent today- that is when including the depreciation of China's yuan by 10%. as it did last time. The result would be price level in the US at 1.82%, according to J.P. Morgan. Drag on China's GDP of the Trump tariffs in first term was 0.65% according to one investment bank GS, with 60% tariffs it would be 2%. Trump secured a return of $116 billion or 58% of the $200 billion China said it would buy of US exports. The other 42%- the deal was not completed in the end. ...

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Trade and economic relations between Germany and China are deteriorating. See the video on Economy minister Habeck "The Naivety towards China is over," in this DW.com report. Habeck said this at a G7 economy ministers meeting in September- "the naivety towards China is over." Habeck has denied the VW group guarantees for investments in China in May. German companies business in China was supported by government guarantees for exports and investments in China. Germany has about 90 billion euros of investments in China. The relationship began in 1972 when China was a poor developing country, and surged particularly in the Merkel years when China was no longer a developing country. Today Germany and the US face technological competition from China and the reappraisal of global supply chains overly dependent on one country.

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Zweig, Light and Pleven reflect on the experience of the last 5 years in the stock market. Investors who went through severe anxiety for higher investment allocation in stocks in 2009 now feel the opposite for low investment allocation in stocks. What does one make of this, and what have we learned, is the question posed. One lesson is that investors should be wary of relying too much on predictions. At one point predictions of Goldman Sachs and other bank economists was for the S&P at 1250 at the end of 2012, when it was 1421 in April 2012. The eurozone crisis and the sluggish U.S. job growth, debt overhang, were major factors in their assessment. The eurozone recovered faster than expected and the Iranian nuclear crisis risks were reduced through negotiations. QE 1, QE 2, QE 3 by the U.S. Fed under Bernanke provided support to the market. Banks recovered faster than expected with help from the Fed. Another lesson is that this can happen with higher volatility, 900 point drops occured in May 2010 and there were drops in April 2012 and other dates. Zweig gives April 2011 as a date for the start of a 5 month bear market, citing Oct 4, 2011 as another date with the market dropping 21% from the April 2011 peak. Another lesson is that performance statistics can play tricks, a month or a year can make a big difference. If 2013 is not included the statistics look very different, if 5 years go back to Feb 2009 when there was a 11% decline instead of March 2009 when there was a 9% improvement the numbers change quite a bit. Another lesson is that macroeconomic news played a major part in the story of the stock market in 2009-2014 and continues today, with continuing support and vigilance from the U.S. Fed and the ECB. The bad news from the eurozone throughout 2011 and into 2012, and sluggish job markets in the U.S., took a positive turn in 2013. The U.S economy is improving and the eurozone is returning to growth gradually in 2014. Because of different timing in their recovery P/E ratios are higher in the U.S., than in Europe....

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China's economy expanded at 0.4% growth rate in the second quarter of 2020, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. It is not just the lockdowns that are dampening consumer sentiment.  US and EUropean demand for manufactured goods from Taiwan, South Korea and China is shrinking.

Youth unemployment is high with 20% of people 16 to 24 years without work. Some experts say the youth unemployment is increasing because companies are showing less interest in hiring and training new workers, or in investing in the future.

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Project 2025, originating at the Heritage Foundation, most dangerous idea similar to abolishing Social Security is to consider abolishing the US Federal Reserve. Why? Because the Fed was established to avoid banking panics and setup a sound banking system, a sound economic system. It suggests unravelling solutions that were developed after one hundred years of experience gained by US that has made the period since 1950 the least crisis prone compared to prior to Fed's formation in 1913.  Mr. Trump himself said in 2022 that the Heritage Foundation will "lay the groundwork and detail the plans" for what our movement will do, according to the WSJ report." It has become a matter of huge controversy with plans for outright attacks on the civil service, a blueprint of plans to shut down important government agencies such as the Education Department, Department of Homeland Security, and affect the functioning of the government of the United States in accordance with the Constitution.  The most radical is to change the financial system of the US that evolved from the Great Depression and previous economic crises since 1900 that led to the formation of the US Federal Reserve as the central bank that monitors aspects of the economy such as inflation and unemployment. Project 2025 says consider abolishing the US Federal Reserve and replace it with 'free banking' that does not control interest rates or the supply of money. These are untested ideas but more significant is the fact that it is the US Fed that under different presidents has taken the lead in managing the economy when a crisis happened. President Woodrow Wilson signed into law the founding of the US Fed, and its regional Fed system with a. supervisory board in Washington on Dec 23, 1913. Before the Fed the US currency was printed by individual banks and inflation or the economy could not be controlled. This led to banking panics the last in 2007, with great loss to the working people and families of America. It is unthinkable today that individual banks not the central bank the US Fed would issue US currency dollar banknotes. Yet it is just this kind of radical Barry Goldwater type of idea that is being put forward in Project 2025 that is written for a future administration running the country. ...