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The Ukraine war is heading in the direction of a wider war, says Antonio Guterres, secretary general of the United Nations. "I fear that the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war, it is doing so with its eyes wide open." On the lack of strategic vision and near term thinking focused on gaining that slight advantage in the near term, and the actions of global finance, he said it was deeply irresponsible and immoral. He says a "radical transformation" is needed, as without it one side will pile up wealth and the other left on the wayside with crumbs. 

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The Centres for Disease Control agency in the U.S. was unprepared for this pandemic in the early period from January to March. This report in the NYT shows how the agency failed to respond effectively in the early days leading to the loss of lives now past 100,000. When travelers arrived at U.S. airports in February from China carrying the virus with them these flights were diverted to selected airports with CDC conducted screening but the screening proved to be defective. Health officils desperate to set up isolation and quarantine could not act because the information provided was not accurate and missed many details resulting in the inability to quarantine early and isolate clusters as other countries Germany and South Korea have done.

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The $3.5 trillion bill of president Biden to help America get back on its feet after the pandemic and after years of neglect of infrastructure, manufacturing technologies, child care, health and education, is that much only if offsetting tax increases and spending cuts are not included. When this is taken into account the US is spending about $871 billion to rebuild its economy and for a better life for Americans. That is the estimate provided in the report September 13 by the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.

Experts say that if president Trump's bill- Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was calculated without offsetting cuts and tax increases the same bill would be $5.5 trillion package.

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A sense that president Putin may have seriously "miscalculated" the scale of Ukrainian resistance and that he may not be getting the right information from subordinates. The conflict does not appear to be in Russia's long term interest, making it weaker with western sanctions.

For EU the shift away from Russian oil supplies shifts to supplies from Qatar and other nations and use of LNG terminals. The US and EU will likely see a more effective shift to renewable energy after the Ukraine war. Increased funding for defense in US and EU and the funding for social goals with a wealth tax planned in the US.

China also sees an impact on its economy and long term growth with sharply reduced access to western technology and research, and restructuring of supply chains to be shorter and focus more on South and Southeast Asia, less on China.

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The NYT's Kristof gives this exceptional report on the use of cancer causing chemicals all around us in many consumer products. With the increased use of chemicals has come the tripling of asthma rates in the last 25 years, leukemia up by 1% a year, increasing obesity, and breast cancer rates increasing from 1% in 1975 to 12% today with only some of it from better detection. Doctors at the Mt. Sinai School of Medicine in New York, say American girls who had puberty at the age of 17 in 1800, now have puberty at the age of 14, even 12. Earlier menstrual cycles increase the risk of breast cancer because of increased exposure to estrogen. Studies show exposure to pesticides, PCB's and other cancer causing chemicals increase the risk of cancer, and a link to early puberty. Asian women moving to the U.S. are also experiencing higher rates of breast cancer as they move to societies with higher use of chemicals in daily life, say experts at Mt. Sinai. Poor eating habits and lifestyles with less exercize are also to blame, but chemicals also play a role. Americans are moving towards shunning packaged processed foods for fresh food in their diet, and more are learning the benefits of regular exercize, but the same degree of public awareness is lacking for the extensive use of chemicals in our consumer society. In other societies around the world that are copying us such as in China, India and Brazil, the situation is even worse, with the spread of a reckless idea that modernization requires jettisoning health safety concerns. Even a simple pizza box has PFAC's chemicals made to make the box resistant to grease. In 2015 where products are labeled environmentally friendly by large companies to attract buyers and build the right image in the minds of consumers, consumers asking questions and making better choices make a difference by offering a seal of approval. Carpets have chemicals, and most disposable plastic containers contain chemicals that could seep into the food if heated. The use of plastic containers and microwaves is common practice in todays society, where less cooking is done on the stove than in the period before 1960. The sheer size of the chemicals developed since 1950 is staggering- more than 80,000 chemicals according to the Children's Environmental Health Center at Mt. Sinai. And this Center says less than 20% have been tested for toxicity. ...

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Viewing people as "pass throughs for units of fiscal stimulus" that is no longer an option, no longer wise, no longer possible. Brian Deese, US president Biden's economic adviser, uses this sentence as he describes the approach of president Biden in putting together a $2 trillion plan to invest in infrastructure and in the people of America. He compares 2009 to 2021 and talks about the differences then and now after the pandemic. The coronavirus pandemic exposed all the weak spots in the American fabric and society and in the way national life was organized. Today the pain is felt in socio economic groups throughout the country.    US president Biden wants to make a decisive impact with large investments in infrastructure, education, health and jobs. In American manufacturing competitiveness and in America's technological advancement. The investments made in 2009 were in simple recovery mode, this time the investments are intended to bring America back to its position in the world after 1945, the hope and the optimism for a better future. ...

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Sabrina Tavernise writes about vaccine skeptics in the US. She sees it as a problem about gut beliefs. It is prevalent among people of different political views, not just conservatives. The misinformation on vaccines has made people who normally would be open to getting vaccinated a bit leery. Because of the flood of information spread in today's hyper sensitive news environment, including misinformation. Tavernise describes how different people in the US tackle the decision to get vaccinated or not and how this leads some to simply postpone getting vaccinated. Britain tackled this problem of spreading misinformation on vaccine effectiveness or risks early. It also helped that in Britain there is a very high regard for the National Health Service, the NHS. In Germany and also in France there was increasing skepticism in the beginning, yet this is reversible as there is growing recognition of the benefit of taking the vaccine in Germany and France. Much can and needs to be done to create public confidence and limit the spread of misinformation that leads to postponement of vaccination at a time when variants are becoming more contagious. ...

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AP/NORC poll March 2023 shows 7 out of 10 adults in the US feel that the US is spending too much on development assistance when the budget for USAID is $40 billion. In general Republican administrations prefer foreign aid to be adminstered by the State Department not a separate agency. USAID was setup during the Cold War with the Soviet Union by president John F. Kennedy in 1961. Today it adminsters programs for HIV/Aids and for pandemics, health programs that can be done through the State Department. Attitudes have shifted following the pandemic with 9 out of 10 Republicans opposed to foreign aid through USAID. Some of the criticism is that it funds bureaucrats favorite programs. The actual impact is now uncertain in the developing of an economy. For example Sri Lanka benefits more from aid and development assistance from neighbor India than from programs of USAID as it tackles the current economic crisis following the pandemic. India pulling together the aid through IMF for Sri Lanka, and the investment in energy from India is way more important than the small USAID programs.  ...

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Jenny Strasbourg of the WSJ provides this much needed report from London about the courageous decision by AstraZeneca and Oxford University to give vaccines away at no profit to the whole world, to billions of people in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Without this brave decision by a British company and a British University the world would be a lot poorer, more variants could have happened, making us realize the great contribution Britain has made and how indispensable it is to the planet. Add to this the effort of Indian companies including Serum Institute that provided the manufacturing facilities and capabilities for making most of the British vaccine. AstraZeneca delivered 2.3 billion doses of the vaccine globally as of mid-December, according to the company. The International Monetary Fund estimates that low and middle income countries received 3.25 billion vaccines as of Dec. 11, About half of this or 1.6 billion doses were Astra Zeneca shots. This is a bigger share than any other vaccine by far and a life saver to the world. AstraZeneca stepped up early in a true to the best ideals in Britain to meet the needs of the world-  aiming to deliver 3 billion doses in 2022 and sell them at no profit as long as the pandemic continues. As the shot does not need cold storage it is ideal for India and other Asia, Africa and Latin America. "We are all very proud throughout the company of the impact we have had," says AstrZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot. By far the biggest manufacturing was done at Serum Institute of India which supplied 1.3 billion doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine to 70 countries. Mr. Modi pushed forward the export of vaccine made in India to the world from the beginning in the same spirit of cooperation and the best ideals that Britain was living upto. Serum Institute can produce as much as 250 million doses of vaccine a month making it possible for India to tackle the vaccination population of 1.3 billion people.   None of this could have happened without Oxford University and AstraZeneca and Indian companies with Mr. Modi's active support living up to the best ideals of Britain and India for the world. "When you add up the benefits to humanity, I think you'll find the vaccine holds up pretty well in terms of the ill health it has prevented, and the deaths it has prevented," says John Bell, a senior Oxford academic who in 2020 guided the University through its vaccine-partnership talks with Astra Zeneca. Because in the real world AstraZeneca shot has held up so well it is also a choice for booster shots. ...

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French youth are an important part of the protests in France in extending the retirement age from 62 to 64 years. A neuropsychologist at a Paris hospital says "are there any social benefits they haven't rolled back," in this report in FR24. Youth feel that the reform asking workers to work longer in the current situation in France is basically unfair at a time when workers are facing a cost of living crisis and are just coming out of a once in a century pandemic. And with the stress on schools, hospitals and older people, the shrinking savings of workers and families as pandemic period benefits are being phased out. In the US and Germany there is support for working families during the cost of living crisis, much less so in France, and even less in Britain. France is facing protests and possible strikes, Britain has strikes across health, transport and education. 

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Two parts per million of lead in cinnamon is the maxiumum that is considered normal. Five parts per million of lead in cinnamon is considered bad for health. Children are particularly affected by lead contaminated products. High lead contamination in applesauce product pouches lead to recalls by the US FDA recently. In the case of the cinnamon applesauce pouches this Washington Post report says federal investigators have called it "an act of economically motivsted adulteration." The European Union limits lead to 2 parts per million. McCormick & Company says it adheres to strict safety protocols and procures whole cinnamon bark rather than ground cinnamon to control adulteration and contaminant. Frontier Coop which sells brands Simply Organic and Aura Cacia says it tests for heavy metals and follows New York standard of one part per million of lead in spices. People are discouraged from buying in bulk for turmeric and cinnamon as this creates risks of contaminated or adulterated product. ...

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Absurd is a word that would apply to many aspects of New York City- the subway system, the transport infrastructure, the dilapidated sidewalks, the garbage shown here without any proper system of storage and pickup that other cities in Europe and Asia have. It all goes back to indifference from New Yorkers, as this report says New Yorkers go about their business inured by all this. The root cause is lack of investment and the capital markets of the US and of New York crowding out  investment in ,the very things that are essential for the quality and ease of living, sanitation transport infrastructure, public services, education and health. And instead a massive diversion of capital into other areas. The so called Reagan revolution's domestic side, the so called "freedom to choose" domestic side, where a few people choose to make the decisions for capital allocation away from what is in the public's interest.

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Latin America is hit hard by the pandemic. About 20% of the region's companies will close down or about 2.7 million companies, and loss of 8.5 million jobs. GDP decline in 2020 of about 10% is expected.

All the statistics of a fall in poverty in Latin America that used to be cited by economists have proved to have no good foundations. Even before the pandemic the economies of Argentina and Brazil were in trouble. The pandemic has worsened the situation. It shows how important it is for countries in Latin America to build on strong foundations of education, health care and good governance. With fall in trade and in tax income the debt to GDP levels are expected to go up from 57% to 70% and 30% drop in earnings coming from relatives overseas to support families at home, resulting in great difficulties. 

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This WSJ report looks at the work of Sandberg in building up the advertising revenue part of Facebook. Ms Sandberg took many risks which were highlighted in WSJ investigations of Facebook. This showed the toxic effects on young girls mental health, on democratic processes, on an angrier discourse with algorithm changes to reverse falling user engagement. 

This period of social media growth, and tech growth at other companies such as Google and Apple, which turned into monopolistic behaviour has damaged America's social fabric. This period is now coming now coming to an end as America looks to the future to rebuild after decades in which its manufacturing was ceded to other countries with the loss of  manufacturing communities in America through actions of tech companies. And the growth of social media has disrupted the normal discourse and discussion in America.

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Key takeaways from XI's speech to the 20th Party Congress of the CCP, China's Communist Party, are shown in the Guardian. Xi presented a vision of continuity. Goals that were seen as significant were self-reliance in science and technologies and building China's capacity for innovation by building up its capabilities in science education. This was stated as the main driver of future growth. It does not favor decoupling with the US even though the US sees it in its own interest and that of its working class to bring home manufacturing and rebuild supply chains for American self reliance - the pandemic showed the weakness of free markets approaches that ignored this. A promise to step up regulation on income distribution and wealth accumulation, to cut down the growing inequality gap that developed in the last two decades of hypergrowth.  To focus on the quality of economic growth after lessons learned on climate change. To double down on the zero covid policy. He lauded the "all out war on the virus." To continue the battle against "corruption on a scale unprecedented in our history." "Corruption is the biggest cancer that harms the vitality and affects the combat effectiveness of the party, and anti-corruption is the most thorough self-revolution. As long as there is the soil and conditions for corruption, the fight against corruption will not stop for one moment." ...

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The higher risk of infection in counties in the U.S. that did not impose stay at home orders and enforce them is shown in this report in the NYT. Florida has counties in the list and the state only imposed a lockdown in the state as a whole on March 25. People in Jacksonville and Tampa continued to travel at a higher rate than people in other parts of the country says this report in NYT. In Louisiana not till March 20 weeks after after Mardi Gras celebrations in New Orleans was travel reduced significantly. 

It takes 2-3 weeks of this higher travel to show up in data about infected people. Dr Fauci, the leading health expert on the crisis, says the impact of following the stay at home lockdown shows up in the reduced level of new cases in many areas, making this change in behaviour very critical.

 

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Yaroslav Trofimov gives his reflections on what the war means for Russia in this Essay in WSJ, and the sense within Russia that the war itself was a mistake. A result of miscalculations and a result that leaves Russia in no way better than it was in 2021 before the conflict. Hard won economic gains achieved by Mr. Putin during the last two decades have in fact been compromised by the conflict. No discussion has even been done on the transition away from fossil fuels that have been accelerated by the conflict. This is particularly relevant for Russia where the question of redundant fossil fuel assets during the rapid transition to renewable energy is a problem that needs to be tackled. The Ukraine diversion in this way affects the Russian economy and acts as a distraction from important economic goals. Global public opinion is also affected in ways that do not look favorable for Russia the longer the war goes on particularly the effect on food insecurity in poor countries, and energy security in Europe for poor households, the senseless destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine and millions of women and children displaced, all creating a sense of overwhelming moral failure. Mr. Modi of India is reported by FR24 to have told Mr. Putin at a meeting on September 15 that "this is no time for war." This is shown on today's pages in Lyrarc. How could it be a time for war when the pandemic has taken lives of over 1 million people in the US, over 2 million in Europe, millions in Asia, Latin America and Africa, and the world is only now coming out of it. The competition is not between countries for major power status but between countries on achieving better lives for its people, stronger economies, and better job, health, infrastructure and services to ordinary people, tackling problems on a common basis such as climate change. In most situations even the advanced countries of North America and Europe are facing the same problems faced by middle income countries such as China,Russia, and developing countries such as India- how to combine market economy with State participation in the economy and government ensuring fairness to all, better distribution of incomes and wealth, ensuring that there is a level playing field for all and opportunities for all. ...

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Healthcare, climate change, pensions and social benefits, are three issues uppermost in the minds of German voters. Three million new young voters most of them only about 2 years old when Merkel started 16 years in office, look for change. They are well informed and for these young voters climate change is the most important issue. DW.com shows three voters and how they plan to vote. One voter has cast a mail in ballot for The Greens party. The second voter will vote for the Greens. Both because of climate change concerns. The third voter Thurid says her mother is a geriatric nurse and is not vaccinated. She is vaccinated but had talks with her mother and understands her worries about vaccination. She will vote for the Free Democrats because they oppose compulsory vaccination. The three leading parties for young voters are the Greens party, the Free Democrats, followed by the Social Democrats all in the range of 16-18% of support. The Greens have sent out 2 million brochures to voters. Out of 60 million voters in a German population of 80  million, 3 million is only 5% of the vote. What makes a difference is that it is consistent with the general direction of voters young and old, all looking for change in Germany as the CDU party attracts only about 20% or one fifth of German voters. Social Democrats Scholz is way ahead of Christian Democrats Laschet in how voters view each candidate. Will German voters be well informed enough to make a decision based on their desire for change after 16 years of Merkel or will the CDU bringing back in the last days of the campaign the old fears that the communist Left party would somehow find its way into the government using the Greens as a way in- this is a question for German voters. In1994 during the Cold War with Soviets Kohl used this to keep the Social Democrats out and Greens out and formed a coalition with the FDP. Yet today Merkel has grown close to both Russia and China and away from the Western alliance in a way that was unimaginable under Adenauer who helped build the new Federal Republic of Germany after the war. Merkel refuses to even immediately accept a call from a new US president Biden, American president who is closest in style and temperament to Harry Truman who faced off the Soviets in Berlin in 1948.  The FDP opposes a wealth tax or any form of taxes in which the wealthier pay a fair share of what is needed to build crumbling infrastructure in Germany neglected in the Merkel years. In Germany social and economic disparities have grown during the pandemic with poverty increasing during the pandemic as has happened throughout Europe and the world. The US is already committing to increase taxes for the upper incomes. This is where voters have a choice- do nothing with infrastructure, health or climate change or do something by increasing taxes. The choice is now before the German people.  With this question comes a choice for western civilization, with the recent election in the US, and two elections in Germany and then France. Will it look with optimism to the future or will it huddle up in a deeply cautious and slightly pessimistic view of the world that is embedded in Angela Merkel's cautious vision that ended up only responding to crises- some self inflicted as in migration policy, and even self inflicted in tackling euro problems created in the euro currency's faulty design. In fiscal policy as in migration policy Merkel has reversed her position- by supporting European solidarity. Will Germans vote for optimism or never ending caution? Are lessons learned?     ...

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Old Right vs. Left arguments become redundant or outdated in the present state of aspiring young people looking for education opportunities in the private sector, and in the context of the 2018 budget with fair price for farmers, health insurance for rural poor, and better environment for industry. Efforts with GST implementation were called "biting the bullet" by finance minister Jaitley, which he said previous administrations had failed to do in taking up challenges of implementation. The picture for a growing and rapidly developing country is much more complex than the old labels, as actual results count the most.

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The Republican House health care bill AHCA  keeps some some of the more popular parts of the Affordable Care Act such as not taking pre-existing conditions to deny insurance, keeping children covered on parents insurance till age 26, and increase contributions to Health Savings accounts. It is different in that the expansion of Medicaid at 138% of poverty rate threshold is rolled back. Age is used for tax credits instead of income, hitting those approaching Medicare age harder. The maximum charged to older people is now set at  5 times compared to 3 times what young have to pay. In general the Republican bill is seen as targeting the elderly to keep premiums down. The elderly on low incomes are hit hardest. Fox News O'Reilly Show showed the host questioning House Republicans, citing the CBO estimates that elderly on low incomes may have to pay as much as $14,000 a year for insurance making it basically unaffordable, and 52 million Americans would be affected adversely. Large companies are no longer required to offer mandatory health insurance under the new bill. Conservatives from Freedom Caucus wanted to see the essential areas of benefits covered by the law limited to fewer than the ten areas in the Affordable Care Act. The ACHA Republican bill leaves to states to determine what are required essential benefits. At one point maternity benefits were to be dropped but this was changed to let states decide. As a result the bill is 33 votes short of the number needed for passing the house in March 2017.   Neither the Democrats Affordable Care Act or the Republican House bill of Speaker Ryan do much to tackle the real problem- the absolute amount and increases for health care dollars for treating each disease in the U.S. compared to European and other countries. As a result health care has become more of a partisan struggle between the two parties than a real effort by all to overcome the problems that have to be tackled. Republicans want to see premiums drop and keep the burden on the deficit down- but with the level of U.S. health care costs disproportionately high compared to Europe and the rest of the world the arithmetic is tough and ends up leaving out vulnerable groups such as the elderly on low incomes, thus making the whole proposition prone to fail. For the same reason the Democrats failed to keep premiums down with a wider safety net leading to calls for repeal of their version.   ...

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Walk in clinics at drug stores like CVS and stores like Walmart now have the cooperation of hospitals. Hospitals are now affiliated with 25 Walmart clinics. THe Cleveland Clinic has lent its name and backup services to a number of CVS clinics in northeastern Ohio. And the Mayo Clinic is operaing ne Express care clinic at asupermarke in Rochester, Minnesota, and asecond one at ashopping mall. This helps clear emergency rooms of people seeking bsic medical care as for astrep throat or flu. About one thousand clincs are operating in the US at drugstores, supermarkets and big stores since the idea took root 4 years ago. Wal-Mart has partnered with hopitals like the Christus Medical Group in Texas, Aurora Health System in Wisconsin and COxHealth in Missouri to setup clinics. Mayo did so after employees and patients said they wanted more convenient treatment for minor medical problems, so there may be a need here that as not been met. The lower costs at these centers compared to primary care doctors offices or emergency rooms make it possible for them to price lower and meet the needs of the 45 million or so uninsured people in the US, numbers growing as jobless rate increases. They are typically staffed by nurse practitioers or physicians asistants. Dr Herman at Mayo Clinic, who supervises its retail store clinics, says rather than fight this trend primary care doctors should learn from it, and work with hospitals around the country to offer more convenient locations and consumer friendly office hours, including periods of walk-in care with no appointment....

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EU Commission president Leyen announces Pfizer will supply EU with 1.8 billion doses of Pfizer vaccine to 2023. The increased supplies will include booster shorts to increase immunity. Another change is the new date for 70% of European Union population to be vaccinated, which is now advanced to end of July instead of end of September. With new waves of the coronavirus affecting Europe, and criticism of the EU's earlier effort in securing vaccine supplies, more urgency has gone into the new effort in 2021. Leyen told Pfizer CEO Albert Bouria- "If I may say so, engineer the mRNA in a way that it can adapt to potential escape vaccines," at a joint press conference. Leyen thanked Pfizer for its enormous effort in boosting vaccine manufacture and delivery. This will help accelerate the vaccination effort in Europe after the slow start in March and April of 2021. Bringing much needed optimism and new hope of a lasting recovery both in economic activity, health and in the mood in Europe, which can then spread from the US and Europe to the rest of the world. ...

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Feldstein says GDP growth was smaller than the 1.8% that was reported for the 1st quarter of 2011, because two thirds of that 1.8% went into business inventories and not for sales to consumers or final customers. This means final sales growth at an annual rate of 0.6% and actual quarterly increase of 0.15%. With mostly inventory investment and not much response from the consumer he says business cannot be persuaded to hire and invest. A closer look at the numbers shows the growth was in February and March, with declines in April for real wages, durable goods orders and manufacturing production, existing home sales, and in real per capita disposable incomes. Feldstein sees the Obama administration's failure in several areas. The stimulus could not make up in size and structure for the loss of annual consumer spending of $500 billion and loss in housing construction of $200 billion. At $300 billion in 2009 and $400 billion in 2010 it was not enough to fill the huge gap presented by the financial crisis. President Obama allowed the Democratic leadership in Congress to put together a package that while adding to the deficit added less than a dollar to GDP for every dollar of stimulus. The stimulus lacked punch for economic growth as it consisted more of transfers to state and local governments, transfers to individuals, temporary tax cuts for low income people etc. The lack of a plan to reduce the deficit by creating higher uncertainty about future tax rates and interest rates has hurt the economy. The President's health legislation with the cost of $1 trillion over 10 years diverted much needed time, attention and bipartisan goodwill from the core issues of unemployment and the deficit. The Obama administration also did not tackle the housing issue as suggested by Feldstein with specific proposals in the first year of the Obama administration, with very little done to reduce the millions of foreclosures that have kept housing in a prolonged slump. ...

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RBS CEO Stephen Hester steps down in 2013 after 5 years of UK government ownership of RBS. Finding good leaders at the British banks has been difficult for the UK government. Hester's stepping down comes as the Board plans to return RBS to private ownership. The fragile health of British banks and weak lending to business is holding back Britain's economic recovery.

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Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont, where Dean helped set up health care improvements, says the bill currently in Congress for health care reform does not deserve to be called reform and may do more harm than good. He points out that it does not insert competition into insurance markets, does not significantly lower costs, and does not improve the delivery and use of health care services. And few Americans will see any benefits till 2014, by which time premiums will have increased significantly. He sees insurance companies as winers in this bill, and the American taxpayer about to be fleeced with a bailout in a situation that dwarfs even AIG. One of his keen criticisms is already apparent to the public in this health care bill, that clear thinking has been thrown out in favor of compromise and political calculus, and by political moves the bill has been stripped of real reform , the end result being a bill crafted for votes and not to reform health care. It also then sets an irreversible course of how future healthcare reform is done, doing more harm in the future. ...