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David Kostin, Goldman Sach's U.S. equity strategist and his prediction of the S&P 500 at 1250 at the end of 2012. The S&P was at 1421 on April 1, 2012, the highest it has been since May 20, 2008. In his research note Kostin says that over the longer term the stock market will offer opportunities after a more normal growth environment is reestablished. This is similiar to the view held by John Bogle, founder of Vanguard. For the short term- the 2012-2013 time frame Kostin sees tactical risks, and results below average. The reason he gives is low economic growth and the large degree of uncertainty. The situation in Europe shows slowing to no growth and more deficit problems, and the sanctions on Iran pose risks for oil prices.

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Policies and actions taken today to reduce future consumption and to conserve oil will create expectations for lower prices in the future in relation to today's price. It will lower price pressures as these expectations get embedded, and as this makes it more profitable to produce more oil rather than leave it in the ground. In addition see the supply of Iraqi oil, and efforts to reverse the oil supply situation in Iran which may happen with a different administration in the US. The reduction in fuel subsidies in Iran would lower oil consumpion in Iran. Efforts to reverse years of decline in Mexican oil fields, and increase supplies in the US by drilling in new areas, would create new supplies. While supply would see changes, demand would see a new fuel efficient car fleet on the streets in several years, and better use of mass transit and rail transit, and oil conservation across the board, this would then create anew and favorable dynamic. But look for oil prices to stabilize at lower levels in relation to current levels of about 140 and higher as it rises in 2008 and 2009 till new expectations get embedded, and not a sharp decline in prices, as pressures from the developing world's demand will continue for years to come. Think a billion people being absorbed over time into urban type economies....

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This report in the NYT says US officials now say Russia was not involved in the attack on the Nordstream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The pipeline was connecting Russian oil and gas undersea to Germany and generated revenue for Russia, cost $12 billion each to build for Nordstream 1 and 2, so that it would have no reason to sabotage its own pipeline, say US officials. Cost of repairing the pipeline would be over $500 million.  Nordstream I and 2 stretch across the Baltic sea from Russia to Lubmin, Germany for 760 miles under the sea. Nordstream 1 completed in 2011 cost $12 billion to make, with a similar amount for Nordstream 2 completed over American objections in 2021 by the Merkel government in Germany. American officials are still reviewing the intelligence to understand how it happened. Just as happened for the spy balloons over the US initial reports and speculation have turned out to be misleading. It shows the importance of getting all the facts right, more than ever.   ...

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Russian seaborne crude shipments are up 18% as of June 11 over the prior year, Iran's shipments up even more by 45%. The result is increased supplies even though the Saudis tried to increase oil prices by limiting production. China's economy is slowing and faces headwinds that will not go away anytime soon of debt close to 290% of GDP higher than US or Europe. And lower imports by the US and EU as they correct the mistakes of overconcentration in China. The European Union faces high inflation and a mild recession. This is cutting demand as supplies increase. It will help the Biden administration as it seeks to give all Americans a fair chance to improve their standard of living, by reducing the cost of living and investing in the economic potential of the country in a way no other adminstration has done in the last 40 years.

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Russian president Putin visit to China covered by NHK's Analysis. This is the first visit after being reelected for Putin. China's president visited European Union countries and Serbia, Hungary recently. China seeks to keep its relations with the EU and stabilize its economic relations with the US because of its weak economy. China benefits with supply of oil at better prices in its trade with Russia that has reached $240 billion, at a time it's economy faces a large debt burden and a collapsing real estate industry. It needs markets in the EU for surging exports of electric vehicles. Russia is also probably reassessing the situation in Ukraine to position itself for an eventual settlement, as China clearly has no interest in the war in Ukraine and seeks to limit any negative fallout from the conflict in its trade and economic relations with EU and US.

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The Bell 212 helicopter that crashed in dense fog over East Azerbaijan due to technical failures leading to death of president Raisi and the foreign minister of Iran, was originally built in 1971 for the Canadian Armed Forces. Later supplied to the US Army and in 1988 manufactured in Quebec, then discontinued in 1998. Iran and other countries in eastern Europe still use Bell 212 helicopters which were widely used for commercial purposes. Iran has to contend with difficulty of getting spare parts from the US and Canada. The only other crash reported for Bell 212 is one in 1986 in North Sea oil facilities in dense fog. Reports say the 50 year old Bell 212 depends on visual flight conditions meaning only what the pilot can see from his seat which would have made it very difficult in the steep mountain slopes of eastern Azerbaijan. 

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Chief of TechMet a company in mineral resource development says that it will take years to dislodge China's dominance in rare metals mining and development for metals critical to technologies in car batteries, wind turbines, cellphones. This includes nickel and cobalt for car batteries.Last week president Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and authorizing use of the Defense Production Act to speed development of mines. The U.S. imports 80% of its rare earth elements from China, with further supply coming indirectly from the country. For 14 of 35 critical types of minerals the U.S. has no domestic production. Gallium for light emitting diodes in cell phones is one of these metals. Half of Barite a metal used in hydraulic fracturing for shale oil is imported from China. To get some idea of the neglect in U.S.policy in these area under three administrations, the U.S. in the 1980's was the largest producer of rare earth metals and the technology to process them. Today there is only one mine the Mountain Pass mine in California, and no processing plants. It takes about 10 years to develop a mine. Just as in health care products essential to tackle the virus the U.S has found its manufacturing and technology base left in woeful shape after manufacturing and mining were neglected in a failed policy. Under the guise of globalization corporations transferred essential manufacturing from the U.S. and Europe to China, without understanding the importance these products played in the life of countries, and governments neglected to help local manufacturers and mining companies. Governments play a critical role as China has done by providing loans and grants to develop the national industrial base. Tariffs and quotas are also used to promote local development of the manufacturing base and mining base. Another factor is that investors are more able to invest in these companies when the government take some of the risk with its help and active support. With the Trump executive order comes a new awareness in Canada, Australia, and European Union which are now taking active steps to nurture and develop the local resources. ...

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Russia's economic planners and president Putin underestimated the importance of foreign investment to build its tech sector and diversify the economy away from its dependence on oil and gas commodity exports. The strong balance sheet with only 20% of GDP in government debt and over $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves created a false sense of security. An adventurous foreign policy has resulted in western sanctions and a poor investment climate crippling much needed foreign investment. Capital flight exposed vulnerabilities in the economic situation and cracks were evident in the emerging markets crisis in early 2014. Russian corporations were exposed as they depended on access to financial markets which was reduced with EU and U.S. sanctions. These problems were compounded by Dec. 2015 as OPEC led by Saudi Arabia did not cut back production to offset higher shale oil supplies, leading to the drop in oil prices below $50. Experts see the drop as being a lasting factor and Russia's finance minister sees no rebound of oil prices to $100 as happened after 2008, accepting a long term situation of low oil prices. This increases dependence on oil says Barley. It shows how Russia under Putin had grown complacent about the risks to the economy of not forging ahead with an aggressive plan of diversifying into tech and related sectors. In a competitive global economy the risks of standing still, of complacency, misallocation of resources, poor decisions, and weak political processes, can be disastrous....

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Keith Bradsher's NYT interview with Raghuram Rajan, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, comes when Rajan has come under criticism from the business sector and the small business support base of prime minister Modi's party. The criticism centers on the drop in oil prices since Nov. 2014, and Rajan's failure to drop interest rates at the Dec. 2, 2014 central bank meeting. Rajan says it was not clear whether oil prices would remain low for an extended period at the Dec. 2, 2014 meeting. Since then new inventory data, EIA estimates and OPEC policy guidance have confirmed low prices will remain for an extended period. Rajan lowered interest rates on Jan. 14, 2015, by one quarter of a percentage point. Under India's setup the central bank chief makes decisions on interest rates, compared to the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee at the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rajan says there is full understanding between the central bank and the Modi government economic team led by finance minister Arun Jaitley, Jayan Sinha, deputy minister of state for finance, and chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanium. Modi and Jaitley prefer to rely on the advice and policy direction of economic policymakers with long experience in the U.S. and international circles. Both Subramanium and Rajan bring this level of experience and expertise. Subramanium brings experience from his years at the GATT which preceded the WTO, the IMF, and the Peterson Institute of International Economics, and Rajan brings experience at the University of Chicago, and as chief economist of the IMF. Modi is a dilgent listener and policymaker giving careful attention to the best advice, making it unlikely that Rajan would be seen as a holdover from the administration of Manmohan Singh. Other criticism that the business sector has made of Rajan are as financial regulator in asking state banks to increase collateral required from large business firms for large bank loans. Rajan points out the need for business to bear the costs as well as the benefits of taking risks. Under previous governments the state banks allowed large firms to keep their holdings at companies even when the risk taking resulted in losses. Rajan has also not tried to reverse the sharp decline in the rupee, which hurts business firms which took on dollar denominated loans. Rajan has instead followed policy of building up the reserves by buying dollars. The reserves were depleted in 2013 by a policy of currency interventions to reverse that decline. Inflation in India reached 9.9% in Dec. 2013, with policy of the central bank under Rajan set to bring it down to 8% in 2014, and below 6% in 2015, so that India could get out of the trap of persistently high inflation with slow growth. This is critical for a new Indian success story. A goal set by Rajan in Oct. 2012 when he was appointed as central bank chief, was to increase foreign investment and encourage new business so that India was no longer dependent on large companies for growth. This is also critical for a new Indian success story, as the Modi administration and the central bank are both keenly aware. Just as Bernanke and now Yellen at the U.S. Fed face criticism for quantitative easing monetary policy, focus on the high long term unemployed, and not focussing on inflation- with their focus on the long term economic recovery in an environment of low inflation below 2% in the U.S.- India's Reserve Bank faces a different kind of criticism for careful and prudent policies to ensure long term growth....

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A farming family at Misty Brook Farms in Albion, Maine realizes how suddenly you find contamination from forever chemicals in the soil. You can't see this, can't feel or taste it, say farmers in Maine. Some time in the past sludge from waste water treatment plants in Maine was used as fertilizer for the soil without realizing the danger of toxic chemicals such as PFAS, called forever chemicals. This story in the WSJ shows the damage it is doing to agriculture in Maine and other parts of the US.

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This report in the WSJ provides details on the groundwork that was laid by the Trump administration as it worked to find a solution to the problems facing Venezuela with refugees and economic crisis, and months of protests. The plans were set in the days before Nicholas Maduro took office for the second term as president. The night before Juan Guaido, head of the National Assembly, declared himself president, U.S. vice president Mike Pence stated that the U.S. would support him if he took the reins of government from Maduro by invoking a clause in the Venezuelan Constitution that makes the head of the National Assembly take the office of president if the existing president is declared illegitimate taking office unlawfully. About 60 nations did not recognize the elections that gave Maduro a second term. On Jan 2 Mr Trump who feels deeply about the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and rising poverty, the suffering of the Venezuelan people, met with presidents of Brazil and Colombia. Colombian president Ivan Duque and Trump hinted at a plan to cooperate to help people fleeing Venezuela and respecting its democratic heritage. Mr Pompeo spoke to allies of the U.S. The National Assembly laid out its plans on Jan 15, for using a constitutional mechanism that allows the head of the Assembly to lead an interim government till new elections are held if the existing president is declared illegitimate. A leading Republican senator of Cuban origin Mr. Rubio supported the move. On the eve of protests in Venezuela Rubio and two other senators from Florida met Mr. Trump and Pence at the White House. Also present were Bolton, Pompeo, Ross and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Mr. Trump then decided to do it. He placed a call to Mr. Guiado  to tell him that if the National Assembly invoked Article 233 the U.S. president would back him.  The U.S. believes the rank and file in the military are with the opposition even though its leaders back Maduro. After the U.S. action, the governments of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia, backed the move for an interim government. The European Union called for free and credible elections. Russia and Mexico supported Maduro.  The State Department instructed the U.S. Federal Reserve about Guiado government as the sole representative for Venezuelan assets in banks. Sanctions could be placed on Venezuelan oil exports as backup efforts proceed to support the interim government. ...

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U.S. revised GDP figures from the Commerce Department show growth of 5.1% for the 3rd quarter 2014, up from 4.6% in the 2nd quarter of 2014. The 1st quarter's contraction, and slower growth of about 2-3% expected in the 4th quarter 2014 means the full 2014 GDP growth is expected to be about 2.5%, according to U.S. Fed officials. For 2015 oil capital expenditures will decline, and housing continues to struggle. Exports from the U.S. may slow with a stronger dollar and weakness in Europe and China, creating some of the same uncertainties faced in 2014.

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Chavez wins 61% of the vote to Rosales' 38% and wins reelection for a six year term. Social goals will continue to dominate in Venezula's oil based economy. Importance of cooperatives for poorer classes. Development of a Bolivarist class of businessmen who support social goals with freedom to operate and benefit from oil resources fueled economy. Are their similiarities in a sense to pursuing welfare and equity goals to the elected government in Iran? Both are oil based economies and large producers with exploration and production issues, how do these similiarities and policy differences with the US affect oil access and prices?

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Russians vote in 2021 parliamentary elections. With 30% of votes cast the United Russia party of Mr. Putin wins 45% of votes cast, followed by the Communist party of the Russian Federation with 22%, and the Liberal Democratic party getting 8%. Russia has mixed voting system with half the seats directly elected from party lists, and the other half assigned to individual candidates. United Russia had 334 seats out of total 450 seats in the outgoing parliament. Putin will need over 300 seats in the new parliament to get the two thirds majority to enact changes to the constitution. Putin needs this to extend his current term which ends in 2024.  Putin draws most of his support from the older part of the population that has seen the hardships imposed following the collapse of Communism around 1990. This led to collapse of the ruble currency, increase in poverty, an effort by oligarchs to capture state enterprises, and a chaotic period for law and order. Shockingly during that period even life spans of Russians declined as reported in the WSJ. Liberals who supported the shift to democracy had not anticipated all the ill effects of introducing capitalist free market systems in such a sudden and free fall way. Such sudden shifts to free markets are now better understood and seen as the wrong way, as western capital markets fail without inbuilt protections, safety net for workers and retired people, and are subject to serious distortions if no vigilant authority exists. This is in reality not a free market but a market captured by the few, in the interests of the few. Once this was clear retired people, pensioners, military, law enforcement, and liberals realizing what had happened shifted support to United Russia founded by Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin faces the typical situation faced by incumbents over long periods where there is a sense of the need for change. Yet the pandemic and other economic crises that could happen in the event of mismanaged economy are never really too distant for countries such as Russia, China, India that are developed but yet have not the strong industrial base of US, Germany, France. Such economic crises including the ruble currency and Russian energy companies were better managed under Putin than under the chaotic period following the collapse of communism and the introduction of so called "free markets" that were anything but. During the recentfree fall in oil prices Putin was able to manage a transition period with the help of president Trump who negotiated a price for oil with the Saudis to protect US shale oil workers and companies, as well as Russian workers and oil companies. As a result Russians particularly young people look for alternative places to vote for opposition parties such as Liberals, Communist party, and other parties. But the majority of Russians including those working for state energy and other state companies tend to stay with Putin's choices for state, regional and federal administration and for parliament. Nationalist spirit also provides additional support as Putin has restored Russia's status as one of the important nations in the world. Some missteps such as interference in US elections have led to a loss of some of this international influence, yet even president Biden understands the situation in Russia and is willing to work with Putin with new rules of conduct Under the Russian system about 70% of the laws are not made by parliament but are done by the government and the administration of the president and then go through parliament. In addition to parliamentary vote there are 6 governor races and three races for heads of regional republics. ...

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Greg Ip points out that the stronger dollar in 2018 is creating serious problems for Argentina, and will have an effect on Turkey, Indonesia and other developing countries. Dollarization hurts because it increases debt as debt servicing becomes costlier with dollar denominated debt and imports denominated in dollars become costlier. The dollar has increased in importance in the global economy. This is why the economic growth has suffered in developing countries in 2018. It is also why president Trump believes he can cut off Iran from the U.S. banking system to increase chance of new negotiations to fix flaws in the Iran nuclear deal, says Ip.   Argentina has seen internal problems compounded by the rising dollar causing the peso to drop by 17% so far in 2018. 88% of Argentina's imports are denominated in dollars. A rising dollar means it costs more in pesos for imports. Argentina's different levels of government have $98 billion in dollar denominated debt, and private sector has an additional $68 billion, the total being a third of its GDP. A decline in the peso means this is harder to pay off. About 40% of world trade, according to Harvard economist Gita Gopinath, is invoiced in U.S. dollars, four times U.S. share of world trade, and developing countries together owe $2 trillion in dollar denominated debt according to BIS. This makes it harder for developing countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, India, Argentina, Brazil, as they now face rising oil prices in combination with a rising dollar. In Argentina a poor crop for soyabeans and other agricultural exports in 2018 creates additional woes.   ...

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About 1 million jobs in Germany depend on China. Scholz is derisking but not decoupling Germany's relations with China because of the close linking of the two economies under Merkel. About half of German business depend on China for some part of their supply chain or for parts. Yet it is clear that the relationship has changed after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the lessons learned from the shutdown of oil and gas supplies from Russia, the search for alternative supplies to get through the winter. Germany like the US is rebuilding its supply chain to correct the over concentration in China. The annual dialogue between the leaders of the two countries is also no longer the same as premier Li Qiang of China meets chancellor Scholz.

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The sinking of two oil tankers in the waters off Mexico led to Mexico joining the war against Japan in 1942. Mexican president Avila Camacho sent the 201st Fighter Squadron as part of the Mexican Expeditionary Force to train in the U.S. By 1945 this force was taking part in the war in the Philippines. Mexico is the only nation from Latin America after Brazil that fought on the Allied side in the war. Brazil sent forces to Italy. 

India made an amazing contribution of 2.5 million soldiers in the war effort as part of the British effort in the second world war.The largest contribution in the war effort came from Indian troops against Japan in the northeastern part of India with Indian Air Force pilots based in Imphal, Manipur. The Indian Army mostly from Indians with British officers played a key role in repelling a 80,000 large Japanese Army in the northeast and Assam. The Indian Army was also active throughout North Africa and in Italy. 

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The Iranian response to the tighter sanctions of the Trump administration are seen in this report from Tehran in the WSJ. The economic arm of the Revolutionary Corps that helps run the Iranian economy managing civil construction projects, oil projects, and commercial real estate, is now led not by a general from the Iraq-Iran war. The new head is Saeed Mohammed who has a PhD. in civil engineering and has managed civil construction projects. He hopes to use his company's resources to fill the void left by foreign investors complying with sanctions and withdrawing. The companies run by the new leader are run on management efficiency principles leaving behind the revolutionary fervour of the previous period. As CEO of Khatam Construction Base, 50 year old Saeed Mohammed plans to stabilize the economy and soften the harsh effects of the sanctions of the Trump administration on Iran. He plans to work with other private companies inside Iran to shore up the Iranian economy till the sanctions regime and the differences with the U.S. are settled. ...

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A copy of the letter Mr. Trump sent to Mr. Erdogan of Turkey telling him " don't be a tough guy... don't be a fool," to invade the Kurdish zone in Syria. He says history will judge him, that he should "not let the world down." 

Turkey sent forces into the Kurdish zone even after the letter from Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump said that it was a bad idea getting involved in the Middle East that trillions of dollars had been wasted. He made exceptions for keeping the Straits of Hormuz open and flow of oil from a commercial standpoint in providing assistance to Saudi Arabia and Aramco, something the U.S. has done since FDR administration.

It also says Mr. Trump has worked hard to help Turkey. And admonishes Erdogan saying "I don't want to be responsible for destroying the Turkish economy- and I will."

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Response to question whether this $100 a barrel oil is possible is yes, if something big happens in the oil flows from middle east or if there is a Katrina style hurricane. Reason being that oil demand has not slackened up either from Asia or from the U.S. automobiles. How would this impact the USA, Europe, Asia? The impact on Japan and Europe would be less because of the high efficiency in use energy use. This could slowdown the U.S. economy considerably as gasoline approaches $5 a barrel. India would be hurt with a drop in GDP growth from 8% to 6% according to an estimate by Crisil, Mumbai. It would affect Chinese growth also but the main impact would be indirect through a decline in the U.S. market for Chinese made products. Russia would gain and economic growth there could accelerate further from 6% to 9% according to estimate by MDM Bank, Moscow.

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The U.S. National Security Agency is going through four separate reviews- one by a White House internal review team, by the Review Group for Intelligence and Communications Technology setup by president Obama in August 2013, by the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board setup in 2004, and by the Senate Intelligence Committee. Sources say the head of the agency Gen. Alexander offered to resign but this was not accepted because it would be seen as a win for Snowden. Proposals being considered are having a civilian head the agency, setting up a process where a determination is made balancing the potential value of the information with any political implications. Decisionmakers at the NSA are trained to be apolitical in collecting intelligence making it difficult for them to make such determinations. The recording of conversations on Merkel's mobile phone was made at the request of the State Department. Mr Ledgett, a senior NSA official says there are 36,000 pages of "requirements" or intelligence requests from all parts of the U.S. government, including State, Defense, and Commerce. What to do with such requests and how to assess them will now be important questions for NSA. One of the risks of the NSA revelations is that individual countries will impose restrictions on the internet to protect information leading to a fragmentation of the Worldwide Web. U.S. relations with Iran have remained stuck in the original atmosphere of the period under U.S. president Carter in the late seventies with the Islamic revolution with the most recent president Ahmadinejad being one of the activists from that period, the isolation and sanctions have also created a siege mentality in the Islamic republic. The U.S. and the world has changed since that period after over three decades. The Obama administration sees an opportunity to gradually resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis by relaxing tensions and giving small wins to moderates in Iran like Mr Rouhani. Rouhani may see a way out for Iran's isolation and falling behind other countries in the region in developing its oil resources and economy. The moves also helps to reduce new sectarian tensions in the Middle East as the different countries take sides in the Syria....

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Sadanand Dhume in WSJ reflects opinion in the US that is wary of handout politics that has been carried to an extreme in India's election. In Venezuela the bad turn for the oil rich economy was when Chavez's successor Maduro ignorant of the problems it would create decided to give oil at almost no cost to all Venezuelans. In India the leading opposition party offered $1 lakh rupees to every woman in the state of Uttar Pradesh. India's federal government under Modi has given free food to about 800 million people and renewed the pledge this year because of the pandemic's devastating the rural economy- about 60% of India is still rural. This is essential for India to advance to build a broad based growth model for India similar to China 1990-2010 and Japan 1890-1915 and 1950-1970 during the transformation of their economies, similar also to the US under FDR/Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy 1940-1965.  Clean environments Swacch Bharat was essential for basic sanitation and toilets to reduce health risks, cooking gas to shift rural women from firewood and health risks, direct deposit bank accounts for 300 million rural households essential to eliminate leakages, solar energy is planned to cut energy cost  This has brought and will bring the level of income and consumption power of the lower and middle classes to create a 500 million strong consumer base for industry. It is a carefully planned effort based on the success in states such as Gujarat, and looking at the way this was done in China and the US for learning lessons. It is not a reckless effort to win votes such as the offer of 1 lakh rupees to every woman in Uttar Pradesh state with no plan for industrialization and modernization of the Indian economy to make it the third largest ahead of the EU by 2035. Dhume is right to point this out and it is apparent to any outsider who looks at Sab Ka Vikas Sab Ke Saath- prosperity for all, including all parts of society irrespective of caste and religion.  ...

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A supply chain crisis, shortages of coal and oil are affecting major world economies. The Guardian looks at the economies of Britain, the US, Germany, Russia and Australia. Inflation is above 4% in Germany for the last month. Shortages of workers is affecting most economies. Ports are filled with container ships that have not downloaded their shipments because of a lack of workers. There were a record 10 million job openings in the US mostly in the restaurant and entertainment industries. Low wages have led many to reconsider their careers during the pandemic, a phenomenon called the Great Resignation. Other people have dropped out of the workforce because schools have not reopened and there is a lack of good affordable childcare. The chairman of the US central bank Jerome Powell, says "It is frustrating to acknowledge that people getting vaccinated and getting Delta variant under control remains the most important economic policy we have. It is also frustrating to se the bottlenecks and supply chain problems not getting better- in fact at the margin getting a bit worse." ...

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Compared to the Trump Putin meeting in Helsinki when Trump went in casually into the meeting and Putin was late by half an hour, this meeting had a lot of preparation. Jill Biden when asked about it said "Oh my gosh he was overprepared." The meeting with Putin also came after Biden met with the G-7 in Cornwall, UK. He was briefed by EU officials, and had preparation with Blinken and Sullivan  before going into the meeting with Putin.  One result is that the meeting lays the ground for further discussions on many issues. By talking openly and plainly about US expectations from Russia- laying out expectations on cybersecurity and hacking, on arms control, on EU and other issues, the US made it possible to get tangible results. Both sides have an incentive to work for the interests of their countries including preventing another cold war, ensuring cyber security through mutual respect and US response capabilities, and arms control. One of the economic issues related to Nordstream 2 which was settled before the meeting with US respecting the wishes of Germany to go ahead with the project bringing Russian oil and gas through the seas to Germany. ...

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As Chancellor Scholz sets anew direction for Germany reminiscent of the days of Adenauer and Brandt following the Berlin Airlift in 1948, two previous chancellors offer a stark contrast. Policies of Gerhard Schroder of the SDP and Angela Merkel of the CDU created some aspects of the situation where China and Russia are able to act in the manner they are acting today. Schroder made CDU policies under Merkel look acceptable even as they actually strengthened the position of both Russia and China in relation to the US. Both Schroder by joining the boards of Russian oil companies and Merkel with her policy towards China integrating German economy with China's, have created a situation where the American and European, Indian and other Asian, Latin American, African views of the free world are being challenged.