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Steve Jobs anticipated a post PC period when he told a technology conference in 2010 that PC's would retain a lot of their value, but he said they will be used only by one out of so many users. Tim Cook told a Goldman Sachs investor conference recently: "From the first day it shipped, we thought- not just me, many of us thought at Apple- that the tablet market would become larger than the PC market, and it was just a matter of time that it took for that to occur." Analysts see this happening sometime between 2013 and 2017.

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Saudi price cut in November 2014 to reverse market share decline in the U.S. The Saudi share of total U.S. oil consumption declined to 4.6% in August 2014 from 7% in August 2013, according to EIA. This brought NYMEX price to below $80 in early Nov. 2014.

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The Potential Gas Committee 2013 report showing the U.S. has 2384 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources. The report did not identify the resources that can be extracted at a reasonable cost. This figure is 90 times the gas used in the U.S. in 2012, and about 26% higher than a report by the same industry group in 2010. About 20 companies have applied for permits to export liqufied natural gas from the U.S. to other countries.

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US manufacturing revival under Biden and Trump policies of the last decade 2016-2026.

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Moody's Investor's Service downgrades China's credit rating to A1 from Aa3. Moody's predicts a slowdown in growth for China. GDP growth for 1st quarter 2017 was 6.9%. Total debt has grown from 149% of gross domestic product in 2008, to 213% in 2013, and is now 253%, according to JP Morgan. The problem is that ever higher levels of credit have supported growth and more of this is coming from the shadow banking sector. Higher levels of debt in future years from the already high levels will weigh heavily on growth, leading to an eventual slowdown in the economy's growth rate.

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Petrobras plans investments of $224 billon over the next 5 years 2010-2014, up from $174 billion planned in the 2009-2013 plan. The focus is on development of large offshore oil reserves in the presalt area in the Atlantic ocean.

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Patrick Buisson, a key Sarkozy adviser, who helped him win the presidential election in 2007, says Marie LePen's chances in the 2017 election are dimmer than people realize. Her Front National is popular in the north of France with working class people who formerly voted in favor of the Communist or Left parties. In the south of France in areas like Nice her niece Marion is popular with people who have social views on the right on abortion, and gay marraige. The problem is reconciling these 2 blocs of voters and the way Le Pen appears to have moderated her views on social issues. The opposing candidate from the Right parties formerly led by Sarkozy is Francois Fillon, actually prime minister for the full term of 5 years under Sarkozy. Fillon's views are closer to the FN voters in the south and opposes gay marraige and abortion, and has a strong foothold with Catholic voters in traditionally Catholic France. It is this split that hurts LePen who had hoped to run against Bordeaux mayor LeJuppe. The left parties are in disarray and likely not to be a factor. Another difference is that the voters in the south of FN do not see it the same way as FN voters in the north on issues of increasing the size of the state. Voters in southern France do not favor increasing the size of the state as Le Pen has promised and opposed by Fillon. Fillon has plans to cut France's large state employees by 600,000. France has a large state owned sector of companies and increasing the work week to 48 hours, reducing the state sector size to help private companies with incentives is seen as a way to increase productivity and grow the economy, plans supported by Fillon. A major problem for Marie LePen is her family name of Le Pen which Buisson says people in France associate with her father Jean LePen, and extremist positions. Buisson thinks Marie LePen will never be able to shake off this image in the second round of the election as she loses some of her right wing Catholic support to Fillon, and fails to attract enough working class voters in the north of France because of the family name. ...

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The U.S. Fed FOMC's decision to continue paring bond purchases by $10 billion monthly. Fed chairman Bernanke said in 2011 responding to criticism from other countries -"it is upto emerging markets to find the appropriate tools to balance their own growth." The Fed Open Market Committee voted 10-0 to continue tapering bond purchases, by reducing it to $65 billion a month from $75 billion a month. The Fed is forecasting growth for 2014 of 3% in 2014 and over 3% in 2015 can be made without sparking inflation. 2013 growth estimated by the Commerce Dept is 2.7%.

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Ford Motor Company's results in the second quarter of 2013 show sales up 15% to $38.1 billion. Profits were up to $1.23 billion from the $1.04 billion for the same quarter in 2012. Most of the profit comes from N. American market with $2.33 billion pretax profit in the second quarter of 2013, increasing from $2.01 billion in the same quarter 2012. Earnings in Asia were $177 million, after a $66 million loss in 2012 for the same period. Losses in Europe were down to $348 million from $404 million in the second quarter of 2012. Vehicles with a common platform strategy such as the Kuga in European market and the Escape in the U.S. market are part of Ford's strategy for maximum coverage worldwide are helping increase sales. Building of 7 new plants in China under a $5 billion investment plan and a 8th plant under construction have helped increase sales in China. As a result car sales in China increased 47% in the first half of 2013 to 407,721 vehicles, in a late effort to catchup with VW, GM and Toyota. Overall sales growth in the automobile industry in the U.S. provides about 20% of growth in U.S. GDP, according to Ford economists....

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In its performance review for Pakistan the IMF says growth estimate is 2.8% for 2014. The IMF sees a poor outlook for the balance of payments situaion, and has raised the issue of critically low foreign exchange reserves. Inflation is increasing and is at about 11%. Foreign currency reserves have declined from over $6 billion in 2013 to less than $4 billion. Yaseen Anwar resigned as head of Pakistan's central bank in Jan 2014, as Pakistan begins its second quarterly review with the IMF representatives in Dubai. The IMF has only released $1.1 billion from a $6.7 billion bailout in Sept. 2013. The quarterly reviews are designed to see that Pakistan meets the bailout conditions. The new administration of prime minister Nawaz Sharif is making an effort to bring the security situation under control in Karachi and other cities to generate business confidence and expansion.

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Spotify is in the same position as Netflix in 2011 with its margins restricted by the fact that most of the major TV content was controlled by a few companies. It broke out of this with its own TV series "House of Cards." The gross margin at Spotify is at 24.5% but it will be hard to bring it up because Spotify is dealing with a few producers of music for licensing deals, the big 3 and Merlin controlling 87% of songs streamed.

Competitor Apple Music has the deep pockets to offer music subscriptions on plans that are minimal cost in the first year. This puts pressure on Spotify with monthly subscriptions dropping to $6.55 or 5.32 euros in 2017 from 6.84 euros in 2015. This pressure on pricing from Apple Music will only grow. Spotify meanwhile has not made profit since its founding.

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U.S. vice president Mike Pence visits the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea and says that North Korea should not pursue its nuclear weapons program. Pence says the U.S. wants to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program "through peaceful means" but "all options are on the table." Pence said North Korea should not test "U.S. strength and resolve."  Snap elections are to be held May 9, 2017 in South Korea, with one of the candidates saying he would reconsider deployment of the THAAD missile system. Following the deployment of THAAD anti missile system in South Korea China has responded with a economic boycott of South Korean goods. Seoul is only 30 miles from the border with North Korea and the sentiment in South Korea is to avoid military action which would affect the region around Seoul of 20 million people. The missile tests by the North are also seen as a threat to South Korea and Japan. China sees the THAAD system as an effort to increase American presence in the region and has opposed deployment. The U.S. response has been to speed up the deployment of the THAAD missile system ahead of the election in South Korea on May 9, 2017. ...

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A Pew Research Center poll in September 2016 finds 81 percent of Indians have a favorable opinion of Narendra Modi in 2016, compared to 87 percent in 2015. Even among supporters of the opposition Indian National Congress a majority say they have a favorable opinion of Mr. Modi. The author of the poll, Bruce Stokes, says the opinion of frustration of the Indian elites and media about the Modi administration is not reflected in public opinion. Recently the Modi government passed legislation for a national Goods and Services Tax replacing overlapping state and federal taxes that are seen as holding up growth.  Issues the Indian public ranks high are corruption, unemployment and terrorism.

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Britain's economy shrank by 0.5% in the last quarter of 2010, according to Office for National Statistics. Unemployment went up to 7.9% and 2.5 million jobless. Inflation up from 3.3% in the year to November, to 3.7% in December 2010. Mervyn King, governor of Bank of England, says inflation will go up to 4-5% in 2011. The austerity plan is only now beginning to go into effect and creates a difficult year. The VAT, a consumption tax, goes up to 20% from 17.5% on Jan 4th, and public spending cuts go into effect in April. With consumption depressed, higher investment and exports are the two areas supporting growth. There is a risk that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates, as it left interest rates at 0.5% in December 2010. Under these conditions not much of a recovery can be expected in 2011-2012.

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Pakistan's GDP growth is expected to be 4% in 2012, an increase from 2% in 2011. Foreign exchange reserves are up to $18 billion. Repayments in 2015 to the IMF will be a quarter of the payment in 2012, says Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh. Tax collections are up 24% for the first 9 months of the fiscal year 2012. Remittances from Pakistanis aborad are up 21% to $9.7 billion and exports up 5.5% over the $25 billion exports for 2011. In an WSJ op-ed, April 16, 2012, Michael Boskin,who helped negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement for the elder President Bush, says it is time for a free trade agreement between India and Pakistan. Shaikh says he expects to see trade with India up from the insignifcant levels of $2.7 billion in 2012 to $10 billion by 2015. Boskin sees the potential for trade at $50 billion based on trade models. This would help change the landscape in the South Asian region after decades of neglect, strife and conflicts and is long overdue to benefit the billion people on the subcontinent....

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DJT new retirement plan idea to match Worker retirement contributions with US $1000 contribution effective 2027.

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Some of the key executives are leaving Airbus as the company faces turmoil in its executive ranks. CEO Tom Enders leaves in April 2019, Chief Operating Officer Fabrice Bergier leaves Feb. 2018. John Leahy in sales left Airbus, and others who left the company include the head of engineering, and the chief technology officer. All this is happening as the company faces investigations in several countries including France and Austria for corruption, and according to this report for using middlemen and making illegal payments.

In France Airbus offices have been raided in an investigation. Enders is one of the executives being investigated in a combat jet deal. COO Bergier is leaving with a good record for managing the smooth development of the A350 wide body aircraft, and the production increase to 700 aircraft in 2017 for the first time in the company's history.

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The repeated denials by VW officials from global headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany, and from VW in the U.S., since 2012- when the problem of higher emissions on roads compared to emission test readings first came to public attention- show that VW management took the problem lightly. The deep consequences of such a move to hide real emissions, not just from the EPA but from unwary buyers, appears to have been entirely missed by management. Even when the issue was raised by the EPA, VW stated to EPA that the differences in results on roads vs actual emissions tests were technical flaws. In December 2014 VW even made a voluntary recall of half million diesel vehicles. Yet the high emissions on roads continued till VW officials told EPA about the software that was the real cause in August 2015. Even then VW officials offered to personally apologize, and asked for certification of 2016 models in the U.S., missing entirely the deep consequences of their actions. VW now says that the software to conceal the real emissions was installed on 11 million vehicles worldwide. VW management has set aside $7.7 billion as provision for penalties. The VW stock declined by 35% by September 22, 2015....

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How millenials are helping increase auto sales in the U.S. in 2015-2016. About a quarter of Toyota's sales in the last quarter of 2015 were to millenials, according to Toyota executives cited in the WSJ.

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Gikas Hardouvelis was finance minister during a crucial period of impementation of the 2012 bailout program for Greece from June 2013 to Jan. 2015. Here he outlines the mistakes he sees made by the IMF in not agreeing to the 7.2 billion payment to Greece in 2014, 4% of Greece GDP, with one third of that not a loan. At the fifth review of the 2012 bailout the EU commissioner for economic affiars, Pierre Muscovici , said Greece had completed its requirements and the 7.2 billion euro funding should be released. Yet he says the IMF to preserve leverage over a future Syriza administration in the 2015 elections decided to hold back. This made it harder for the Samaras administration to tell voters that it had completed the program a year earlier, and the lack of the funds hurt the Samaras administration as it erased signs of growth that had appeared in early 2014. Following this error he points to 4 mistakes made by the Syriza Tsipras government. The first was that it was bitterly opposed to the lenders (IMF, EU and ECB) and failed to focus on the economy. Hardouvelis points out that the maturity of the debt of 16.5 years and low interest rates meant that it was not the immediate issue facing Greece, and he calls it very manageable. This was not to say that it was important but with creditors worried about moral hazard, other issues could be taken up first. Another mistake was to allow a loss of liquidity to the private sector so that prospects of growth were erased. The new finance minister acted as if the $7.2 billion infusion was not important and let payments be delayed. Tsipras and Varoufakis let the uncertainty increase in the private sector, and let the economy decline all the way to the closing of the banks. How costly was this is evident from the IMF's own paper in Juy 2015 and the 3 page update of July 14, 2015, on the Greek debt, showing it cost Greece a total of 60 billion euros in additional financing needed and an additional 25 billion euros for the shock from the closing of the banking system. That 3 page IMF paper shows that within the space of one year a shocking amount of damage was done by Syriza left government- it says Greece went from being on track for reaching Debt to GDP of 105% by 2022 under the Samaras-Hardouvelis administration in July 2014, to 142% by June 2015, and with the closing of the banking system to 170% by July 2015. Some of this would have come from the IMF's own withholding of the 7.2 billion euro payment to the Samaras government. ...

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Germany holds the presidency of the G-20 in 2017. This provides chancellor Merkel an opportunity to provide German leadership on many issues. The ministerial conferences will lead to the summit in Hamburg in July 2017. Concern about the incoming Trump administration views on trade in international circles gives Germany and China a larger role in the meetings for 2017. Germany plans to put more focus on the real causes of migration and flight from poor countries and war zones.

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Mexican president Nieto's poll numbers are at all time low of 24%, according to Reforma newspaper. He took office in late 2012 and has been hurt by human rights scandal of the murder of 43 students in the state of Guerrero, corruption issues, and failure to improve the economy. The invitation to Trump to visit Mexico left even people close to the president surprised, and was criticized widely inside Mexico. It is not clear what Trump or Nieto gained from the trip. As Trump continued his talk about building a wall on the Mexican border and having Mexico pay for the estimated $23 billion it would cost. He did this in a speech to supporters in Pheonix on the same day he met Nieto, showing the use of teleprompters and prepared script was not his way of campaigning. Just as the message to black people that Democrats take them for granted cannot resonate without the basic message delivered with compassion and understanding- such as done by the presidents Bush and Reagan- so also the message to Hispanic people is suffering from the same lack of empathy. Recent polls show only 3% of blacks support Trump. McCain and Romney gained only 4-6% in the U.S. presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. The message of the wall is also baffling as an election strategy. A Gallup poll in July 2016 shows only 15% of Americans opposing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and only 24% of Republicans. There is another problem in the strategy. The rhetoric about walls and mass deportations, and the Trump temperament combined with handling of nuclear weapons is not winning college educated women in the suburbs with polls showing Trump lagging behind Clinton by about 20 points or 4 million voters with this group. It is hard to undo the damage done by this kind of rhetoric used in the primary elections as it gains distrust of voters. It would require a bad economy with illegal immigrants taking local jobs, and handling of immigration seen as weak, for such a message to gain some national traction. Both are absent for the most part with a steadily improving economy since 2012, lower unemployment, a tough enforcement policy on deportatons under Obama that exceeded that under Geoge W. Bush, and the talk of a wall comes with illegal immigration having declined steeply since the 2008 financial crisis. The real culprit appears to be elsewhere, the triple hit taken from hollowing out of the manufacturing economy that hurt the Conservatives in Canada, the insecurity created for older whites from the job losses and hits to net worth from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the increasing loss of access to health care and educational opportunities with high  costs. About 62 million households or the bottom half of the distribution in the U.S. have a net worth of about $10,000, a quarter of this group having zero net worth, according to the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen at an Inequality Conference in Oct 2014. Problems no wall is going to solve, problems that built up over 2 decades, problems that will take a generation to fix.  It shows the tech miracle of the last 2 decades as a mirage for quality of life of the middle and working class. Tech as a tool to a goal, not a goal in itself, is the better way forward. ...