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The Guardian makes a serious point that the German miracle 70 years ago after World War II, was based on giving debt relief to war torn Germany. Half of Germany's borrowings accumulated after two world wars were written off. Germany was allowed to repay a large part of its debt in its national currency. The cost of servicing the debt was kept at 5% of export revenues. In 2021 the comparable figure is 16% for poor indebted countries. Yet the generosity extended to Germany is not extended to poor indebted nations in 2023, says The Guardian. There is no space for them to gain industrial strength or control, says this editorial. Big powers are not in a hurry to let poor nations develop away from sectors such as agriculture and mining. Private bondholders would be the biggest ones to pay for international debt relief- institutional funds and investors lent 250 billion dollars to 55 most climate vulnerable countries, China 46 billion dollars. It calls on US and UK to pass legislation requiring private bondholders to take part in international debt relief, as bonds are covered under English or New York law. ...

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Airlines are learning to price aggressively, and sophisticated pricing models are helping to improve revenues. Online buying and search habits of travellers aim at getting lower prices, even as the airlines are using pricing models to price aggressively by monitoring passenger buying throughout the day. Further consolidation, as for instance a merger of Delta with US Airways, would further shrink airline fleets and raise prices as seat capacity is filled up. Southwest Airways continues to expand its fleet and is moving in the opposite direction, but it is also expanding routes flown and is increasing its presence in the market visa vis the other airlines. Overall, with 80 to 100% of capacity filled, airlines are finally obtaining some of the pricing power to operate at a profit. Note that leisure fares and business fares are moving in the opposite direction. Leisure down 9% year over year, business up 20% year over year. After the seats fill up the unsold seat is discounted as a filled seat vs a unfilled seat, means at the margin pure profit for the filled seat even at highly discounted rates. It also raises the capacity filled per flight to a higher level....

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Election expert, Karl Rove, says following the win in the New York primary Trump has 845 delegates according to Associated Press, yet there are 950 delegates on the opposite side, putting the gap at 105 with the others. Trump has won 47% of the delegates upto this point, and needs to win 58% to get to the needed 1237 delegates for a majority. Rove, says Trump's threat to run as an Independent is an empty threat because of the filing date for running as an Independent for 12 states is well before the convention on July 18, 2016. By that date 12 states with 166 electoral votes will have already seen deadlines passed for registering as an Independent. The states include Illinois, Indiana, Florida, Texas. Michigan's date is during the convention. Registering as an Independent before the convention and some of the primaries would alienate his own voter base, says Rove. Another factor is that Trump would have to raise a significant number of signatures under the rules which is doable, but would create the impression of being in a spoiler role than a serious candidate....

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Argentina's presidential election on October 25, 2015, offers an opportunity for new leadership. President Christina Kirchner is limited 2 two terms by the constitution, she served 2007-2015, following her husband who was president 2003-2007. The candidate of Kirchner's Peronist Party, Daniel Scioli, governor of Buenos Aires Province, has 38% support in the polls, followed by Buenos Aires mayor, Mauricio Macri, of the centre-right PRO party, who has 30% support. The other candidate is Sergio Massa, former mayor of the city of Tigre, who leads the Renewal Front party, with 21% support. The election rules require the winner to win 45% in the first round or a 10% margin over the second place candidate, if not it goes to a runoff. Both Scioli and Macri are seen as being new faces with different policies to tackle the country's economic downturn, who would give Argentina a fresh start after the Kirchner years. A devaluation of the peso which has an official peg of 9.4, but trades unofficially at 15, and restoring trust of foreign investors, are some of the problems facing a new president....

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In an hour long interview at the Moncloa palace in Madrid, Zapatero, Spain's prime minister, talks to NYT reporters Rachel Donadio and Victoria Burnett. He is standing firm when it comes to protecting labor rights and upholding th social welfare state. Zapatero says "my goal is to make this an innovative, creative, entrepreneurial country while upholding the social welfare state." He sees the need for government to invest in the economic crisis facing Europe and America. And he sees opportunities for Spain to create jobs and growth in sectors like renewable energy, biotechnology, civil engineering and high-speed railroads. About 4 million immigrants entered the country during the years of 3.8% growth from 1997 to 2007. Four million people are now unemployed, and the burden of unemployment has fallen hardest in construction and on immigrants and younger workers. The government has expanded unemployment benefits coverage and about half of the unemployed 4 million receive benefits. Zapatero's government turned down an effort by business leaders to roll back the payment to laid off workers from 30-45 days for each year worked to 20 days....

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Friedman describes the development of a tablet computer by a team led by Prof. Kalra and two professors of electrical engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology, Jodhpur, which costs less than $50 to produce. The new price point is needed to reach over 200 millon students in India who need such a device to escape poverty and poor teaching. The new tablet computer enables them to reach out to knowledge in language, sciences and math, and the humanities in the world outside them. This is an I-Pad like, internet enabled, wirlessly connected tablet. The average Indian family in rural areas saves $2.50 a month, and government support for its educational benefit could subsidize a portion of the cost. The tablet would bring distance learning, teach English, to students and help track commodity prices for farmers. The invented device uses the Android 2.2 operating system, a 7 inch touch screen, 3 hours battery life, and can download YouTube videos, PDFs and educational software. The governmment is expected to subsidize wireless connections to students. The name of the tablet is Aakash, Hindi for sky....

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Marek Belk, head of Poland's central bank, says Poland should prepare for impact of a general slowdown in the eurozone. Poland's economy is expected to grow at 4% for 2011, but experience a slower rate of growth in 2012. Poland's public debt is at 55% of GDP compared to 120% for Italy. Belka said the mistakes in Italy show it is important to stay ahead of the markets. The action taken in Italy on November 14, 2011, if taken 2 months earlier would have prevented the jump in Italy's borrowing costs. Risks facing Poland come from the fact that a large proportion of the nation's banking assets are owned by banks of other European countries- as much as 70% of Poland's banking assets. As a result if these banks experience difficulties the local branches could become orphans. Belka would like to see private capital in Poland be used to bring a larger share of the banking sector back in Polish hands. Belgian and Portuguese banks are considering selling their banking operations to Polish banks, and PKO Bank Polski SA, PZU SA are possible buyers. Poland's central bank has kept interest rates steady at 4.5%....

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Mariano Rajoy, leader of the Partido Popular, becomes the new prime minister of Spain, as his party wins 186 seats in the 350 member parliament. The Socialist party of outgoing prime minister Zapatero won 110 seats, which is down from the 169 seats it had in the previous parliament. The Socialists won elections in 2004 and 2008, when the Spanish economy was growing at 3%. This gives Rajoy and the Partido Popular an absolute majority in parliament; which it will need to take stronger measures than were taken by the Zapatero administration to resolve the debt situation with the cajas savings banks, and make other changes to get the economy growing again. Rajoy told the Spanish people that Spain needed to make a "common effort" to face the "most difficult economic situation that Spain has faced in the past 30 years." Referring to the general feeling in Spain that in the waning days of the Zapatero administration Spain had appeared to have no voice in the EU negotiations, Rajoy said: Spain's voice "needs to be respected in Brussels. We will stop being a problem and instead form part of the solution." ...

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Charlie Rose talks to Bowles and Simpson of the President's Deficit Commission. On health care and Paul Ryan's point that the Deficit Commission did not take on health care, Simpson says they did not do as much as Paul would like to see, but they have $500 billion in cuts for the next 10 years. Simpson says its garbage to say that they balanced the budget on the backs of Social Security, and Bowles says they took a very balanced approach. With the Social Security Trust fund running out in 2037, Bowles-Simpson raises a little bit of revenue, benefit cuts mostly on upper-end people. On the Bush tax cuts Bowles says, if you give more tax cuts you lose revenue. Their approach was to broaden the base, bring down rates. Bowles points to $1.1 trillion worth of tax expenditures, what he calls spending, in the tax code that benefit mostly upper-end people. Some of these are mortgage interest deductions, deductions for state and local taxes, charitable deductions, and he says their approach was to eliminate those and bring tax rates down to 8%, 14%, and 23%, and the corporate tax rate down to 26%....

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Land prices went up by 500% during the last decade and developers went on a building spree in Spain. 800,000 units were built in 2007 alone. Many of these developed areas are now ghost towns. Coastal villages were turned into residential areas for vacationing Spaniards and for retired people from other parts of Europe. At the peak of the boom in real estate the construction sector accounted for 12% of GDP, double the level in Britain and France. Spain's deputy finance minister, Jose Campa,says that the adjustment in housing prices has already taken place. Yet housing prices are down a modest 12.8% from the peak according to the Bank of Spain. And that leaves plenty of skeptics. The estimates of the central bank, the Bank of Spain, are that banks in Spain have $280 billion in "problematic exposure," on their books, out of $580 billion invested in real estate and construction. With the lack of adequate disclosure it is hard to estimate the real exposure of Spanish banks. To improve investor confidence, the Bank of Spain is forcing banks to make more disclosures and to acknowledge bad assets faster....

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Fitch Ratings Agency says that 65-75% of homeowners getting home loan modifications under the Obama administration's Home Affordable Loan Modification Program (HAMP) will default in 12 months. This is because the median ratio of total debt payments to pretax income is about 64% according to a Treasury Department estimate. Many of these homeowners have large credit card and other debt, and little is left for food, clothing and other expenses. By April 2010, 295,000 homeowners had taken loan modifications under HAMP, which provides interest rates of as low as 2%. And another 637,000 homeowners are in trial modifications, which require that homeowners show they can make the lower payments consistently and provide documets to show eligibility. The Obama administration has provided $50 billion for the HAMP program, with financial incentives to loan servicers and mortgage investors to modify loans. Critics say the program would have worked better if the government and HAMP dealt directly with homeowners- as homeowners complain about the long time, upto a year, it takes for loan servicers and mortgage companies to get the loan modified on a long-term basis....

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Views of East Germans in the city of Erfurt on the eve of the 20th anniversary of Germany's reunification. Disparities remain after over a trillion dollars were invested to improve conditions in East Germany, yet the positive changes are visible. In this city of Erfurt the burning of lowgrade coal for heating homes made the air less breathable. It could take years just to buy a car. Still Germans in the east are disappointed, as their expectations were high during reunification. Wages in the east are 80% of wages in the west and unemployment is 12%, and the average wealth of east Germans is 40% lower than west Germans. Young people have immigrated to the west, leaving older people and retirees. Because of this the term reunification is less used than the term "die Wende"- meaning the turn or the change. A sense of the loss of the old values forged in a socialist state is still felt deeply by some east Germans and the change has been largely positive but wrenching in terms of a loss of identity, a sense of being treated as immigrants in their own country....

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India's ruling Congres party suffered losses in the two major states of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. In Uttar Pradesh, the socialist Samajwadi party gained an absolute majority of 224 seats in the 403 seat assembly. The Bahujan Samaj party of Kumari Mayawati lost its majority winning only 80 seats, the BJP won 47 seats and the Congress won only 28 seats. Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party campaigned heavily in the state and the results show that his campaign against Mayawati did not result in Congress gaining enough seats to form a coalition government with the Samajwadi party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav. Yadav has held the position of chief minister three times before, and campaigned for greater rights for lower castes and for a quota in education and jobs for Muslims. His other campaign promises included increasing electricity production, and improving the business climate. In the Punjab state, the Shiromani Akali Dal party won 56 of 117 seats, with the Congress getting 46 seats. National elections will be held in 2014, and the results reflect a repudiation of the Congress party after corruption scandals, slower economic growth, and lack of clear policy direction....

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Gerhard Richter, who is now 80 years old, is softspoken and reticent, and works out of studios near his home in Cologne, Germany. He calls the prices for his paintings "absurd." The son of a schoolteacher in Dresden he crossed over to West Germany a year before the Berlin Wall went up. He has a range of styles, from portraits to abstract paintings with lots of color, experimenting in different ways to put the colors. Right upto 1962 he was largely unknown except in Germany, where local collectors put together collections of his work. At the time his paintings covered subjects that reflected Germany's recent history- "Aunt Marianne" who was mentally ill and was killed by the Nazis, and "Uncle Rudi," a Nazi soldier. It was not until the 1980's that he experimented with different styles and large brushes for colorful abstract paintings that have become popular in auctions. About 40% of the paintings are in museums. In 1995 New York's MOMA paid $3 million for 15 paintings called "Oct 18, 1977." They were done in 1988 after the arrest, trial and death of young German anarchists....

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With government spending currently at 24% of GDP, the budget proposed by Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Commttee, proposes to bring this down to 22.5% in 2012, and to 20% by 2018. The Ryan proposal would cut spending by $5.8 trillion for 2011-2021, with spending $6.2 trillion less than proposed by the Obama administration. It is a bold effort by House Republicans to bring the deficits down from the $1 trillion plus levels of the last 3 years. Major changes are made under this proposal to Medicare, and Medicaid. People who retire after 2021, would choose from an array of private insurance programs, and the federal government would help pay the premium. Medicare under this arrangement would be a "premium support" system. Medicaid would become a block grant for the states. This proposal estimates a saving of $771 billion on Medicaid over 10 years. The Food Stamp program would also become a block grant system. In addition to this the top individual and corporate tax rates would be 25% instead of 25%, with the changes being revenue neutral as a series of tax breaks would be eliminated....

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The overheating economy in Turkey. Inflation could reach 7.5% by the end of 2011 according to Goldman Sachs. HSBC economist, Murat Ulgen, estimates the current account deficit could reach 8% of GDP in the the 12 months ending in March. Goldman Sachs economist, Ahmet Akarli, says the government has kept the fiscal and monetary stimulus for too long. The AKP party is expected to win elections in June 2011 elections and the growing economy is helping it win voter support. His estimate is that nominal wage growth is 18% a year, domestic demand is rising by 25% and credit growth is 30-40%. It is proving hard for the central bank to control capital inflows which is making monetary conditions far too loose. In 2010 the central bank cut interest rates and raised reserve requirements for foreign and local banks to slow capital inflows but this was ineffective. Now the central bank is raising interest rates. Consumer lending is at an all time high and raising reserve requirements is not working. Turkey's new central bank governor, Erdem Basci, says the seas are choppy and a storm may erupt at any time even though things are steady at this time. ...

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The sudden change in the prospects for Venezuelan bonds with the sharp drop in oil prices by Dec. 2014. Price of credit default swaps on Venezuela debt show a 61% chance of default in 2015, and a 90% chance of default in the next 5 years. In previous years Venezuela debt was considered safe by emerging market investors because of oil revenues. Venezuela and its state owned oil company, PDVSA, issued a significant amount of debt from 2007 to 2011. Analysts say the debt outstanding for PDVSA and Venezuela is $66 billion. In the short period of a year sharp declines in commodity prices have created a crisis for Venezuela's finances. Fitch Ratings has lowered the credit rating on the bonds to CCC from B. Venezuela's benchmark bonds traded at 46 cents to the dollar on Dec. 19, 2014, after dropping as low as 38 cents. Yields on short dated bonds are above 40%. Problems in Venezuela can create contagion effects for other emerging markets- Russia, Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, India, Indonesia, China- especially with Fed signals about raising rates which lead to capital outflows. ...

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Growing the banking business right into the 2008 financial crisis - with the effects of the crisis playing out over the next decade- is one decision GE CEO Immelt has described as one he didn't do right. Moves in 2014 and 2015 were designed to focus GE on areas of its historic strengths. GE plans to sell $26.5 billion of office buildings and commercial real estate debt to Blackstone Group and Wells Fargo. This is after moves to spin off the private label credit cards and retail finance business as a separate company called Synchrony Financial. Most of GE Capital's $500 billion business will be sold off or spun off in 2015-2016, except for aircraft leasing and financing for energy and health care, which are related businesses. GE shares were up to $28.38, up 10%, in trading on April 9, 2015. GE Capital's shares were down to $6 in the 2008 financial crisis requiring an injection of government funds. Immelt's 13 years as CEO would end on a positive note with this move, as the role of GE Capital in contributing to the crisis is considered a blemish on his record....

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Britain's campaign finance laws limit each party to spending $29.5 million for the year before the election. British elections are determined by the results in 650 local constituencies, under a parliamentary system, making campaigning local. There too the laws are strict. Candidates for a parliamentary constituency have a limit of $60,000 for spending for the 5 months before the election, plus additional amounts depending on the number of voters and if it is rural or urban. Britain bans election advertising on commercial television and radio. Parties are provided pre-election broadcasts shown on commercial television and by the British Broadcasting Corporation. This stands in obvious contrast to the U.S. where an estimated $10 billion will be spent on the 2016 presidential election. Candidates spend as much time raising money as they do getting across their election message in the U.S. Britain also disproves the popular idea that election campaign spending inevitably moves in an upward trajectory. British researchers estimate the cost of the 1880 campaign to be 100 million pounds in 2002 prices, and the election spending in the 2010 British general election of 45.5 million pounds coming to less than half that....

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This editorial in the WSJ after Jeb Bush's opening campaign rally, says his candidacy livens up the field because he could act as someone who brings the country together compared to other candidates who would act as polarizing figures- Hillary Clinton, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and others. It gives high marks to Jeb Bush for his two terms as governor of Florida, and says the only governor coming close for the last 20 years is Mitch Daniels of Indiana. And it says the Republican party needs someone who can attract non-Republican voters if it is to win in 2016, which means taking states like Florida and swing states Colorado and Virginia. It cites as a plus Jeb Bush having a nearly 60% approval rating in Florida when he left office. On immigration and other issues affecting the middle class Jeb Bush has the potential to act as a unifying force in the country. His goal to achieve 4% growth, after the 2% growth in the Obama years, will be needed to improve the prospects for the middle class and working class people in the U.S., after the damaging effects of the 2008 financial crisis....

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The EU has pushed the date for France to reduce its deficit to 3% once before -to 2015 giving France 2 more years. French president Hollande faced with unemployment at 11% in March 2014, has set the task of convincing Brussels to allow more time after losing badly in local elections and facing opposition to continued austerity in his own party. France is expected to come up with a plan to present to the EU for cutting public spending by 50 billion euros over 3 years 2015-2017. In the televised address on March 31, Hollande put the priority on growth, saying "Its not a question of cutting spending for the sake of it." After election in May 2012, Hollande and prime minister Rajoy of Spain went to Brussels together to push for a growth oriented policy in the eurozone. This time he has support from Socialist Party leader in Italy, Matteo Renzi, who is also introducing growth oriented policies to reduce unemployment and boost the economy. The two leaders faceoff with Angela Merkel on the need to relax austerity policies in the eurozone....

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The introduction of a tax on sugary drinks to fight a surging diabetes rate, setup of a universal social security system, unemployment insurance and tax reform by the Nieto administration in Mexico in 2013. Taxes on high income earners will increase from 30% to 32%, a capital gains tax of 10%, and closing of some corporate tax loopholes such as tax consolidation to offset losses in one subsidiary against gains at others, are part of the tax changes. The remarkable aspect of these changes is the Pacto de Mexico signed by the three major political parties, centre left and right, to provide Mexico a new competitiveness for the economy, eliminate monopolistic pricing, introduce testing of teachers in the education system, combat health risks such as diabetes, and the social reform of seting up a social security system that Mexico lacked. Nieto said in a televised address while being flanked by the leaders of three major parties- "the tax reform is a social reform." For the first time in decades Mexico is poised to compete in a global economy with a new spirit of change and renewal....

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New rules set by Brazil for investment in the oil industry give about 80% of revenues generated back to Brazil. The rules require 30% participation for Petrobras, Brazil's state owned oil company, in all projects and operating of oil fields. The rules also mandate sourcing of equipment inside Brazil to develop local suppliers. Shell and Total, eager to add to oil reserves, will participate in development of the Libra oil field. BP, Chevron and Exxon declined to participate. The Brazilian government faces the difficult choice of keeping as much of the benefits of oil production inside Brazil and yet making it attractive enough for major oil companies with the knowhow for deep water drilling to participate. Delaying development for years means pushing revenue generation further into the future even as the growth rate for Brazil is slowing- down to 0.9% in 2012 and expected to be 2.5% in 2013. The street protests in 2013 making it even more important to show that the benefits of oil production will stay inside Brazil and yet not delay the generation of revenues needed for investment in Brazilian education and infrastructure....

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Michael Gerson was a policy advisor to Geroge W. Bush when Bush announced the PEPFAR program to fight AIDS in Africa. Here he reflects on its lessons. He recalls visiting sub-Sharan Africa and finding only about half a million people being treated out of about 30 million afflicted with the disease. About 14 million orphans had already resulted from AIDS, life expectancy had declined by 20 years, and in whole villages only grand parents and grand children were to be seen, says Gerson. The support came from Rep. Hyde, Rep Barbara Lee, Senators Frist and Kerry- in 4 months after the announcement in a State of the Union address the law was signed. Bush said: "a work of mercy beyond all current international efforts to help the people of Africa. This comprehensive plan will prevent 7 milion new AIDS infections, treat at least 2 million people with life extending drugs and provide humane care for millions of people suffering from AIDS and for children orphaned by AIDS." By late 2005 PEPFAR and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria had treated 800,000 people, and by 2012 this had increased to 5 million....

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The smartphone market is critical for Sony as it makes its way back to profitability in 2013. Sony sees smartphone unit sales growing at 50% in the year ending March 31, 2013, compared to a decline in unit sales of video camcorders of 9%, decline in digital compact cameras of 29%, and decline of televisions of 31%. The Sony-Ericsson joint venture was a world apart from the current Sony Mobile business. Sony Mobile executive vice president, Kaz Tajima, expressed his frustration that Sony was missing opportunities when working at the joint venture. Decisions came slowly as they had to be approved at different levels. Sony Mobile moves quickly on all decisionmaking. Companywide technological capabilities are also quickly available in designing a new product. The Experia Z uses all of Sony's technological capabilities in design, cameras, television and other areas. It now appears that the joint venture was the worst thing that happened to Sony. Sony bought out Ericsson's stake in the venture in 2011. Sony starts with global smartphone market share of about 4.5% and has a lot of catching up to do....