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The propaganda war taking place in Russia and China, and anti-western sentiment promoted on Chinese social media Weibo with the linking of Ukraine with the issues China faces in Taiwan. A kind of Monroe doctrine thinking that prevails about legitimate spheres of influence of Russia and China. Under the Monroe doctrine the US considered South America its sphere of influence during the administration of US president Monroe in the 19th century when such thinking about spheres of influence prevailed. A closer look shows that this was a policy against restoring Spanish or French colonization of newly independent nations in South America such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Mexico. It was put forth in an annual message to Congress in 1823 by president Monroe.  It had the support of Thomas Jefferson and James Madison, founding fathers of America. Originally it was intended to be a joint British-American declaration by Canning and Monroe. In this sense even the superficial notion of America supporting such spheres of influence is based on protecting liberty of nations that suffered colonization such as Mexico, Venezuela, Peru, Argentina and gained independence from Spain. Around 1823 when it was stated it was the British Navy that prevented any recolonization by Spain or France. Under president Theodore Roosevelt it was used to keep European powers from invading Venezuela in 1903 to enforce the payment of debts Venezuela had with European countries. ...

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China's leaders including president Xi Jinping, and China's financial regulators have frowned on the lack of regulation of the financial businesses of Alibaba. They see the state banks which are highly regulated with capital requirements as supplying the capital on which Alibaba makes a profit on transactions, yet having to take on the risks if something was to fail. Alibaba itself has avoided the financial regulation needed for stability in its rush for growth. At one point says the WSJ, Xi and other leaders were infuriated and decided to halt the Ant initial public offering that would provide accumulation of wealth and a pay day while increasing risks in the financial system for China.

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The $3.5 trillion bill of president Biden to help America get back on its feet after the pandemic and after years of neglect of infrastructure, manufacturing technologies, child care, health and education, is that much only if offsetting tax increases and spending cuts are not included. When this is taken into account the US is spending about $871 billion to rebuild its economy and for a better life for Americans. That is the estimate provided in the report September 13 by the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.

Experts say that if president Trump's bill- Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was calculated without offsetting cuts and tax increases the same bill would be $5.5 trillion package.

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The failure of the 117th Congress to pass key parts of president Biden's agenda for hard hit families and workers in America is now taking place. The 50-50 standoff in the US Senate and failure of two Democrat senators Sinema of Arizona, Manchin of West Virgina to support Biden's Families and Workers Plan leaves key parts of the safety net being left out. This leaves out the education, and paid leave part of the agenda and provisions for utilities to accelerate shift away from coal out of the bill. It fails to implement a new national agenda for upward mobility, child care and paid leave to help stressed out mothers and families. The failure to include even a modest community college 2 years of support at a time when men's college enrollment is dropping to disastrous levels for America's economic competitiveness is a failure of the 117th Congress to grasp the needs of families and workers in America today. Only a new Congress in 2022 can take up the needed action for families and workers in education, health care, child care and help for families. The passage of the infrastructure bill and the current version of the social spending bill can only be seen as a first step in the right direction, after three decades of different administrations neglecting infrastructure, education, healthcare, childcare, elderly care, upward mobility, and climate change. On the plus side as the first step to restore dignity and health of families and workers in America it includes- $150 billion for rental assistance, home buying help, public housing repairs, and building 1 million affordable housing units. $150 billion for federal programs for home health care and community care for older Americans and people with disabilities $165 billion to reduce premiums for people under Affordable Health Care Act, cover additional 4 million through Medicaid, adding hearing coverage but not dental or vision to Medicare. $200 billion for child care tax credit to parents. $400 billion to reduce health care costs and give universal pre-kindergarden for 3-4 year old children. $40 billion for worker training $555 billion for fighting climate change including through tax incentives for sources of energy that are low emission and low carbon. It will be paid for by additional taxes on incomes of very high income earners in annual $1 million plus range, and by having a corporate minimum tax of 15% for large corporations, including on profits overseas, that previously did not pay this tax. A wealth tax on unrealized capital gains of billionaires or other wealth of the richest Americans is left for a future Congress to consider for financing the key parts of climate change provisions, education and health care that were left out. The education and healthcare provisions need to be expanded to restore America's historic mission of upward mobility for all. A provision for Medicare to comprehensively negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies that would be taken for granted in any advanced country as in Europe, is also left for a future Congress that understands and responds to the dire needs of families and workers in America for affordable healthcare medicine neglected by administration after administration for the last three decades.   ...

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This report in FR24 looks at the Ukraine war from a demographic perspective. The chaos in Russia after the collapse of Communism led to fewer births during the 1990's and there are fewer people born during this period who are now of child rearing age. This has led to a further effect on childbirths after the earlier decade when population declined to 143 million.  Mr. Putin has offered incentives for child birth, improved hospital care, and incentive payments to new parents. Yet the war can have its own effects of reducing the sense of economic well being and opportunity that drops the level of childbirths. This is already confirmed by statistics showing a decline in childbirths in the first quarter of 2022. The Russian government and Mr. Putin see that Russia's position in the world depends on its population. Mr. Putin may have wanted to make up for the population decline by integrating parts of Ukraine such as eastern and southern Ukraine into Russia, says this FR24 report. It also shows that other factors such as population decline may have played a part in the invasion. It is a miscalculation according to the Biden administration and also from the perspective of many Russians who see Ukraine as a brotherly people speaking the same language and sharing culture and traditions. Russia's occupation of Poland for 2 centuries since the 1750's, and the region of western Ukraine near the Polish border such as Lviv about 100 miles from the Polish border  with Polish influence and distrustful of Russia, have led to pro-EU sentiment in Ukraine. This played apart in splitting opinion in Ukraine about Russia leading to the conflict. With Putin going by historical ties with Ukraine from the foundation of the Russian state in Kviv in 1000, and today's geographical realities after 2 centuries of occupation of Poland and the desire for options to join the European Union of a younger generation of Ukrainians. ...

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The US state of Nebraska has 69,000 job openings and only a third of that in persons looking for work. After Nebraska at 1.3%, the unemployment rate is lowest in Utah at 2.2%, and in Idaho, South Dakota, Oklahoma, all with unemployment rates of below 3%. The US unemployment rate is 4.6% in October 2021.

Factors deterring people from looking for work in the US are fear of coronavirus, child care responsibilities especially for mothers, a desire for work-life balance, desire for stable employment with decent incomes, retiring early, and people moving away from restaurant, hotel, travel and entertainment industries that are hard hit during this pandemic. A sign of how this mismatch between demand for workers and the supply is happening is the national "quits rate,"  a measure of workers leaving jobs as a share of total employment, which is at a record rate of 3%. 

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While attention is placed on Brazil for coronavirus, neighboring Argentina has an economic crisis with debt of $324 billion, reaching 90% of GDP. The new Peronist party government in Argentina is supported by the IMF in negotiations with creditors, as it faces the coronavirus and needs to free up resources from debt payments to tackle the crisis. Its proposal to Ad Hoc group of creditors including investment funds Black Rock and Fidelity is for a three year grace period on debt payments, 62% reduction of interest  amounting to $37 billion, and 5% reduction of capital or $3.6 billion. Earlier governments mishandled the economy leading to overborrowing on an unsustainable basis. Argentina has defaulted on debt 20 times in its history. The last being in 2001 with debt of $100 billion. The pattern of overborrowing and mismanagement by administrations modeled on free market economies has continued. Lenders, borrowers, and the government have not acted prudently knowing this history. ...

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The idea here of promoting biodioversity by turning backyard lawns into places of biodiversity. Bringing back natural backyards where biodiversity takes root. A movement to encourage private owners of backyard plots and lawns to corporate campuses to create homegrown national parks. It envisions turning over 40 million acres of lawns in the US to imperiled native plants and trees. The idea is that of a land ethic- we abuse land because we think of it as something we own, not something we share with the rest of humanity just for a while. This way we treat it with the love and respect the land deserves. One way to do this is to design native landscapes as formal gardens so that they do not look so biodiversity plots not look messy. Intentionaly designed elements delineate larger messy wilderness in such biodiversity inclined garden spaces. Do this one small patch of land at a time.

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Chris Buckley of the NYT looks at selected speeches of president Xi of China to military officers during the first 5 years 2012 to 2017 but fails to look at the China Xi Jinping faced in these years. It was a period of change in China when it was not clear which direction China would take after the messy experiment with free markets under a socialist state controlled system led by the CCP. That period from 1990 onwards led to hypergrowth in China that modernized China yet shifted American and European manufacturing to China alienating working class communities in the western countries. It hurt China also through widespread contamination of air and water, and widespread corruption and decline of the CCP. The Bo Xilai demagogic effort to subvert the system from inside happened by 2012 endangering the system itself from the inside while it responded to the pressures created by the experiment with free market from corruption, regional inequality, and other problems. ...

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Hillary Clinton's estate tax plan would increase the estate taxes on the largest estates from 40% today and her proposed 45% to the higher figure of 65% proposed by Senator Bernie Sanders. Compared to the current $5.45 million exemption only the first $3.5 million would be exempt from estate tax for individuals ($7 million for a married couple). The top rate of 65% would apply to individuals with over $500 million. Beyond $10 million a 50% rate, and beyond $50 million a 55% rate.

The latest proposal adds $260 billion over 10 years adequate to pay for simplified small business taxes, and for expanding child tax credit.  Over 10 years Clinton would increase taxes by $1.5 trillion to pay for expanded education assistance, paid family leave and other programs. She would increase federal revenue by 4% and have the burden fall on only a small portion of households.

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By large margins voters have favorable opinions of Harris and Walz. For 52% of the WSJ survey Harris has the right temperament to be president, for Trump this was 42%. 40% of voter sample have unfavorable views of Walz compared to 50% for Vance. 82% of the voter sample say they know enough information about Harris to make a firm opinion. Even though media presents it as people not so familiar with Harris. A big difference is seen in views about Project 2025- only 9% have favorable views of Project 2025 that would terminate civil servants, restrict abortion access, and end the Department of Education. 57% have unfavorable views of Project 2025, 53% very unfavorable views.

These are general trends. Harris is changing perceptions on her handling of the economy and cost of living by outlining her plans for specific action on housing, child care and food costs.

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Chile, Mexico and the U.S. rank high in the diabetes rate for top soda consuming countries. In the U.S. the diabetes rate is at 7.7% of the population, in Chile 9.6% and Mexico 9%. Soda consumption per capita was at 165 litres in the U.S., 146 litres in Mexico and 134 litres in Chile, and 145 litres in Argentina where the diabetes rate is at 3.9%, for 2012. A new public service ad in Mexico City subway stations says it all, showing an ad with a soda bottle and the words- "Would you take 12 teaspoonfuls of sugar? Soda is sweet, diabetes isn't." The new Pacto de Mexico agreed to by all major political parties includes the soaring diabetes rate in Mexico as a problem to be tackled, including lunches at public schools and the consumption of coke and sodas by children. A particular acute problem in Mexico is the lack of clean drinking water in many areas and the dependence on coke and sodas for liquids. But bottled water could be used in its place if available at lower prices. One proposal is for a soda tax which could generate $2 billion and be used for setting up clean drinking water fountains in schools and other places. Elected officals in Mexico are firm about the need for action, as Mexico recently became the first country over 100 million inhabitants with the highest obesity rates at 7 adults out of 10 over the age of 20 obese or overweight, and the consequently high diabetes rate. Diabetes is the No. 2 killer in Mexico, and a serious health danger. Coca Cola gets its second highest revenues from Mexico after Europe, and the situation has evolved after years of heavy coke advertising to the point where Coca Cola is taken at every meal by some Mexican families, and is a sign of prestige. The company's response is to fight the public service ads with ads showing people burning off 149 calories by walking. The country now faces a long and uphill fight. Russia is one of the countries which is also conducting a similiar fight against soda drinks. The Bloomberg Philanthropy is financing efforts against soda drinks in Mexico, as part of its campaign against smoking and sodas as health hazards, and this maybe Bloomberg's bigger contribution to society than his service to New York City. Developing middle income countries such as Mexico, Chile, India, China, Brazil, are the hardest hit by soaring diabetes. And the costs to their health systems in 10-20 years from uncontrolled obesity and diabetes will be enormous. The U.S. is a developed country with similiar high rates of obesity and diabetes, with soaring medical costs, and serious problems that strangely have not received the public awareness and efforts that one should expect. ...

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S&P downgrades Netherlands to double-A-plus and raises Spain's outlook from negative to stable while retaining Spain's triple-B-minus rating.

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China's rapidly aging population is leading to a new problem of rapidly increasing rural suicides. With urbanization about half of the people over 60 have no adult children living with them and 10% live alone. With meagre savings there are more suicides in isolated communities. 

Over two decades the number of people over 65 has risen from 7% of the population to 12%. The one-child policy is only partly to blame. A rapid drop in births as seen in Latin America was also taking place in China with urbanization and modernization.

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NY Times analysis shows upper and middle income groups support 33 year old Zohran Mamdani,  black and Hispanic residents support Cuomo for NYC Mayor. Mamdani has a good ground presence with 50,000 volunteers knocking on 1.6 million doors in an unprecedented effort in one American city as it became less and less affordable (WSJ). Paradoxically large numbers of higher income resident and middle income residents favored Mamdani over Cuomo, and Cuomo did better in black and minority neighborhoods. Mamdani promised better housing, freezing stabilized housing rents and going after landlords who do not fix rental properties, free buses, and city run lower cost grocery stores, free child care. For the funding Mamdani says $5 billion by making corporate tax 11.5% similar to New Jersey, and by a wealth tax of 2% on incomes over $1 million (which at $20,000 would not affect their standard of living), as the property owners supported Mamdani. Mamdani is a immigrant who came to America from Kampala, Uganda at the age of 7 with Indian parents. His father taught at Columbia University, Mamdani attended Bowdoin College in Maine. ...

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US president Biden has asked Democrats to first reach an agreement on a social and climate policy package and only then vote on an infrastructure bill. Republicans have supported investments in infrastructure, but not supported the social and climate policy package. Democrats progressive wing supports infrastructure but only after the social and climate policy package is approved. To pull together the different groups in the Democratic party and win support among some Republicans requires a skillful balancing act bringing in support from all sides in the national interest. The Biden plan for $3.5 trillion for Build Back Better has a$1 billion infrastructure plan, and a plan for workers and families on social issues confronting the country including child care, education, income related to reduce disparities, and healthcare. It also includes investments in green energy so reduce emissions to tackle climate change. Because Democrats have a thin majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives this balancing act will also require Democrats to reduce the size of the package to less than $3.5 trillion bringing in the most essential components for investment in 2021-2022 and making additional investments in the following years. ...

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US president Biden gives a rousing and vigorous speech drawing a picture of his vision for the country and contrasting that with the chaos, prejudice and lack of action on key issues facing America of his predecessor. On defending democracy, on Ukraine and Europe, on the economy and jobs, on preschool and education, on pharmaceutical cost reduction, on fair taxes and cutting the deficit while investing in manufacturing and new jobs, on all these issues he drew a sharp contrast with the predecessor and former president. He also drew on the tradition of America for democracy and called on America to move forward in line with its values and decency and diversity, not go backwards in the way of his predecessor. He said it was not about being young or old as he was considered too young when he was the youngest senator of the US at 29 years of age, and now people talk of me being old. It was of not being old in the way that the oldest emotions are of hate and resentment reminding people of his predecessor's sharp language about other people and cultures. ...

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Ted Cruz, US Senator from Texas makes a pitch for $1000 accounts for every newborn American child set up by the American government to which parents and relatives can contribute $5000 a year, invested in accounts based on S&P 500 index growth, which would create enough money by the age of 18 to create citizens with a share of the wealth in society. It would create $170,000 by the age of 18 for each child 18 years from now when invested at a historical average of 7% in mutual funds that are based on the S&P 500. It would give them a sense of participation in society that the current system fails to do when it puts most of the advantages on one side which is higher educated and with higher income parents vs the other side of less educated and lower income parents with additional burdens from social ills.

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The failures in Argentina's management of the economy recurring decade after decade for the last 50 years and with an historical trend, relate to the breakdown in the political process in the country, the failure of society to come to grips with the problems as one community with common interests when fighting inflation as we see in most nations including in the US, Europe and modernizing nations of Asia. As well as countries such as Brazil that have overcome their issues with inflation since the 1970's. The lack of industrialization in Argentina and Chile leaves the countries vulnerable to commodity exports. A bad harvest year can ruin the economy as no rainy day fund exists as was done in Russia after economic crises. Borrowing from the IMF leads to a cycle of repeat crises followed by IMF borrowings, austerity budgets such as Milei's when budgets can be corruption free, disciplined and efficient to begin with for a startand kept that way by the whole of society acting together under responsible political leaders. Asian nations learned from Europe and drafted their economic path, Latin America which is largely populated by emigrants from Europe has failed to do this. The differences are stark. Much of Asia experienced war and strife since the 1930's and the suffering created a dire need for good leadership and programs for modernization and infrastructure by all of society pulling together. In Latin America the failures of political parties across the spectrum has led to drugs entering the economic framework, leading to failed states in other ways, and large parts of Latin America are now affected by this problem. The results are that this affects the people of Europe and the US with illegal flows, a problem unprecedented in the history of the US since 1787.  ...

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Meg Gentle, who helped build the first LNG terminal for Cherniere Inc. in the Gulf Coast of the US for export of natural gas extracted in the US, is now switching to work in green hydrogen production. The first facility goes up in Texas by 202 7after an experimental project in Chile. WSJ shows many former fossil fuel executives are taking this route to green hydrogen. Gentle says the nascent green hydrogen industry is similar to the beginnings of natural gas. She says there are all the same elements in both. And that the new companies can go from one plant to create a new transformation just like that done for LNG. A chief technology officer of Airbus, a head of GE Europe and China, and an Italian from Eni Enel are also working at green hydrogen companies. What has turned an historically uneconomic business into a possibly profitable business are subsidies from president Biden put in place for clean energy. These subsidies now cover 60% of the cost of green hydrogen, says the WSJ. Green hydrogen requires permiting, infrastructure, financing, customer agreements, similar to the fossil fuel industry. Many are joining for the challenge as green hydrogen when converted into a liquid for transport can't carry as much energy as fossil fuels. About 120 startups raised $2.6 billion in 2022, a 50% jump from 2021. The GE executive says no one has done this on scale making the opportunity enormous. ...

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When shortages of wheat following the war in Ukraine are causing a crisis in some countries such as Egypt and Africa, there are other unusual changes  as emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian Real and the Chilean Peso, South African Rand are increasing in value. Even with the strengthening of the US dollar the supply chain disruptions are benefiting exporters of soyabeans such as Brazil and Argentina, and copper such as Chile with strengthening of their currencies. The Brazilian Real has strengthened by 13%. The WSJ calls it the sharpest commodities rally in modern trading history. One analyst says this is unusual how emerging market currencies could rally in the first quarter of 2022 with war in Ukraine, supply chain disruption, strengthening dollar reaching almost parity with the euro.  Today this is a positive sign for the Free World in Latin America. Currencies weakening are ones in countries exposed to a sharply slowing Chinese economy and rising energy costs such as Thai Baht and South Korean Won.  Brazil's central bank is also increasing its lending rate to the highest level in 5 years. Other American allies in Eastern Europe such as Poland which has taken in 3 million Ukraine refugees are also seeing a strengthening currency in this new situation. The National Bank of Poland increased its key lending rate by three quarters of a point to 5.25% which has attracted investors to the Polish currency the Zloty. ...

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Reforms planned by the administration of prime minister, Naoto Kan. Plans to raise the consumption tax, to make changes to social security, and to commit Japan to join the Trans Pacific Partnership. Japan's business community supports the plan to join the free trade community called the Trans Pacific Partnership. This group consists of USA, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Peru, Chile. South Korea has signed free trade agreements with the USA and the EU, and Japanese business does not want to be left behind.

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The efforts in Alsace on the border between Germay and France to make the European experiment work with two systems, cultural experiences and lifestyles. This happens at a time of high unemployment in French Alsace and many job openings in German Alsace for German speaking people of Alsace. The debate in France is underway on what things need to change for the French system to work taking into account cultures and different national experience. A keen awareness on both sides of the border- in German Emmendingen and French Selestat- that the European experiment works best when people on both sides of the border do well. It is also a microcosm of the debate underway in the larger European society with different cultures in Northern and Southern European countries, with a focus on improving competitiveness while respecting and not denigrating cultural differences. After reunification Germany faced high unemployment and the costs of unification, and made changes in the economy, with close cooperation between business, universities and the government. It is often forgotten that Germany's low unemployment took years to achieve. A similiar process is in its early stages in France....

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Over 200,000 people turned out in demonstrations in Tel Aviv and 30,000 in Jerusalem calling for social justice, and protesting the rising costs of housing, food, fuel, education and child care.