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Oil prices at the pump for automobiles are declining for the seventh straight week. Prices declined to about $4. In Texas the average is about $3.67 a gallon. California has the highest gas prices at an average of $5.46 a gallon. The price decline is a result of rapidly slowing growth in China. China and India are still getting oil supplies from Russia which frees up oil supplies for the US to import. 

Public in the US is also cutting back on driving and the miles driven is likely to see a drop of 5-10% this summer. There is better planning of trips to combine errands. This helps combating climate change through conservation efforts that were neglected during the last decade.

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Did Kirsten Tatlow points out the different perceptions of China's anti-corruption initiative in a country with deeply rooted corruption. China's ranking dropped to 104th of 175 countries ranked for corruption in Transparency International's Corruption Index for 2014. The current campaign under Xi Jinping is lacking because it is partial, opaque and politically driven say researchers at Transparency International. For it to be effective it has to be done in a transparent manner, and with stronger laws for bribery, whistleblower protection, asset declarations, according to the researchers. China dropped 20 places since 2013. China's score declined by 4 points to 36. Denmark is highest at 92. Turkey dropped by 5 points. Norway, Finland, Sweden and New Zealand, are at the top of the list. Transparency International points out that free speech, accountable government an independent judiciary are essential to tackle corruption. These are not sufficient however as the example of India shows. A culture of corruption or lack of transparency and effective laws can enable corruption to grow even in countries with genuine democratic process. Democratic process does provides remedies through a change in administration as happened in India with the decisive defeat of the corruption scandal affected Congress government....

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Toyota seeing the American market in sharp decline has finally realized the need to build up manufacturing capacity in India. Today it ranks seventh in sales in India behind Suzuki and Honda. Its market share actuallly slipped in 2003 to 3.5% from 4.7% partly because it neglected having a lowpriced small car in its lineup. Toyota sees the Indian market growing in the long term even though it is slowing down this year with effects of the global credit and economic crisis. In 2007 Toyota sold 54,000 vehicles in India. It now plans to increase sales to 400,000 vehicles by 2015 or about 10% of the projected passenger car market of 4 million vehicles by 2015. To do this it plans to add new models, including a lower cost car and open a plant with capacity of 100,000 vehicles a year. It is also opening a Technical Training Institute. In September Honda plans to open a technical college. And other carmakers have formed partnerships with India's technical institutes for training. What it hopes to do is instill lessons of discipline, for instance exercizes are part of the routine and inspections are made at morning exercizes to ensure that hair, uniform and other details conform to Toyota standards. It teaches subjects like math, English and Japanese as well as teaching skills in welding auto assembly and maintenance. And it teaches lessons in company principles of eliminating waste, continuous improvement and consensus building. And it teaches hard work and resilience with one sign on the campus reading "small drops of water make a mighty ocean", reminding one of the power of small individual efforts combined and organized over long periods of time to build great things, like Toyota's own efforts from its humble beginnings from scratch in the thirties. To get the right kind of person for training Toyota looks for about 180 junior high school graduates from poor farming families from a large pool of applicants, who would be open to new ideas and training, and have the right kind of temperament and discipline and intelligence to make good factory employees in a Toyota type production system of continuous improvement and cooperative effort....

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China Merchant Port Holdings takes a 70% stake in the Hambantota Port project, in an agreement with Sri Lanka Ports Authority. It will handle the commercial operations of the port under a 99 year lease. This is part of the plan to convert the $6 billion Sri Lanka owes to China into equity. Hambantota port has losses of $300 million since 2011. China plans to invest $600 million to develop the port. The port project is a $1.12 billion lease to China. Sri Lanka's ports minister says the port will not be a military base for any country and will operate under Sri Lankan law. China is making the investment as part of its One Belt, One Road Initiative, which has aroused concern in Japan, India and Australia.

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India's airlines together will lose $1 billion to $2 billion in 2008, twice what they lost in 2007, according to aviation analysts. The airlines face a glut of domestic overcapacity. Until recently therre were 50 flights between Bombay and Delhi with 4 seats chasing each passenger according to Keskar, Boeing vice president in charge of sales in India. Boeing and Airbus are advising airlines in India to delay deliveries of planes so that the overcapacity does no lasting damage and the industry can recover from this as they see India as a boom market in the future. Boeing expects India will need 1001 aircraft till 2027. Reasons for the airline losses are that in the 12 months ending April 2008 passenger traffic increased by only 7%, and in the 12 months before that by 31%, and in the 12 months prior by 59%. Air India is cutting its domestic flights by 15% returning 14 leased jets to their owners as the leases expire and freezing the size of its fleet. Worldwide the airline industry could lose $6.1 billion in 2008 with a third of the losses in the USA. Passenger volumes fell in China for the second straight month in June but China's airlines appear stable because of milder competition and government support....

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The Washington Post points out the astounding fact that given a choice Japanese voters would have chosen as the new prime minister, Seiji Maehara, who has a 40% approval rating in a recent poll. Instead finance minister Yoshihiko Noda was chosen by 398 Democratic Party of Japan legislators. His approval rating? Below 5%! The ruling DPJ has a 18% approval rating, and the Liberal Democratic Party has a 15% approval rating! It is interesting to note that a similiar situation exists in other major Asian democracies. In India the ruling Congress party coalition and the opposition parties are deeply unpopular because of a series of corruption scandals involving both parties. In Singapore the ruling party barely scraped through in elections. Many of the Asian democracies have an aging leadership and a new generation of effective leaders has not appeared to make the transition.

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Satya Nadella joined Microsoft from Sun Microsystems in 1992. He is originally from Hyderabad, India, and studied electronics and communication engineering at Manipal Institute of Technology. In the U.S. he studied for a master's degree in computer science from the University of Wisconsin and a MBA from the University of Chicago. At Microsoft Nadella worked on business areas Windows, Office suite of programs, the Bing Search engine, SQL Server database, and cloud service Azure, moving every couple of years. Langley, Clark and Ovide relate comments from classmates of the student days and colleagues at Microsoft about the 46 year old Nadella's aspiring nature, willingness to take risks and good rapport with engineers and staff at the company- including one comment from a former Microsoft executive that collaborative work spirit alone will not be enough to change Microsoft's culture.

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IKEA's plans announced in June 2012 for opening 25 stores in India with an investment of $1.9 billion. IKEA says it will meet the requirement that 30% of its products be sourced from small scale local industries, as it plans to increase its purchases in India from $450 million currently to $1 billion in a few years. It said the government should be flexible in its defining of small-enterprises. For India the entry of large scale retailers will help modernize its supplier base in a number of areas. India's current account deficit has increased to 4% of GDP making it important to send a strong positive signal to foreign investors.

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This report from Brazil is of major relevance to India in its growth efforts, and for aging societies such as China. In many ways showing the price countries and the people pay when growth is mismanaged. A major crisis is hitting countries such as Brazil as fewer young people and young workers support an aging population of retirees. This is to be seen in the money allocated in Brazil's budget- only 3% goes to infrastructure, 3% to education, health gets 7%, and retirement system takes up as much as 43% of the budget. Increasing retirement obligations are nearly bankrupting the Rio de Janeiro state government.  At the core of this crisis is a steadily aging population that is happening now faster than in the developed world. Also part of this is the fact that fertility rates have dropped rapidly in Brazil, the rest of Latin America, and in China. It took just 27 years in Brazil and 11 years in China for fertility rates to drop from 6 to below 3, creating a situation where there are fewer young people to join the workforce as retirees live longer and the retired population increases. This report shows that it took 82 years for the fertility rates to drop from 6 to 2 in the U.S. so that the U.S. had a longer period in which to build up infrastructure.  Only 50% of Brazil's sewage is treated, and sanitation systems need investment. The average adult has about 8 years of schooling. An unfunded and unfundable social security system means infrastructure, health and public services such as transportation will remain unfunded for years to come. China's policymakers have done far better by building infrastructure rapidly yet face the same squeeze of aging population lower fertility rates as China's modernization continues. India needs to learn from such failures and successes in framing its own policies. Unrealistic giveaways or promises such as Brazil's retirement age of 55 and poor priorities of soccer stadiums in the northeast over sanitation, health, education, have a steep price. Good intentions are not enough as the Workers Party in Brazil granted pensions to farmers and informal workers without generating the sustained growth needed for funding the pension system, with $3 billion paid in and $36 going out for this added benefit.    ...

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Amol Sharma and Paul Beckett of the WSJ interview Finance Minister Chidambaram about the Indian government's decisions to open up the insurance, retail and airline sectors to foreign investment, and bring the deficit down to close to 5.3% in 2013. Faced with slowing growth and the risk of credit ratings agencies lowering India's credit ratings the government of prime minister Manmohan Singh has decided to take some decisive steps, including a shift in coalition partners to maintain parliamentary support for these steps. When asked about what influenced the government's resolve to take these decisions, Chidambaram says credit ratings was one factor, another was the difficulty Indian companies were having raising capital inside the Indian market and overseas. In addition he says growth could not be sustained at earlier levels without new capital, and new foreign investment was needed for sustained growth. The Kelkar committee report provided a sense of urgency to the government by providing an independent view and showing the worst case scenario if the government maintained the status quo. Chidambaram says subsidies will now be transferred in the form of cash directly to beneficiaries and reduce costs by cutting leakage in the system.The government will use the list of LPG cooking gas households to transfer the subsidy for 6 gas cylinders directly to beneficiary accounts. The plan is to do the same for the Rural Employment Guarantee Program and subsidized foodgrains to cut the leakage that stems from duplication and falsification. The Indian government's ongoing program to use information technology to have computerized records of the the entire population and linking to the financial system, incuding a large rural population, now makes it possible to take these steps. On the Kelkar committee's recommendation to increase prices of basic commodities cooking gas, kerosene and food to reduce government subsidies, Chidambaram says this is ambitious and the government has to consider the political context even though it agrees that this has to be done over time....

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Nissan has fallen behind in China and India. It is now trying to take a new approach by being one of the first to build a small car in India that would cost initally $7000, then bring it down to $5000, and also is working to make a car in the long run for about $3000. India has a small car that runs about $5000 made by Maruti Suzuki but this model the Maruti 800 has a rudimentary design that has not been changed since 1983 and its peak time may have passed. Tata Motors is coming up with a small car costing about $2500 or 100,000 rupees w th a sales target of 2 million cars in the first 5 years, with 4 doors four to five seats, and a 660 cubic centimetre rear engine similiar to the size used in minicars in Japan. Hyundai is also big in the Indian market and holds the second largest market share after Maruti Suzuki. Honda has the Civic in India for about $17,000. And Toyota's Corolla runs $23,000 and Toyota is looking at a small car for the Indian market. Nissan is focussing on the Indian market at a time when sales in Japan are falling. The Indian strategy for a global export hub from India for small cars means Nissan has to dedicate resources and priority for this effort. Nissan and Renault plan a joint business center in Chennai. It will also mean Nissan has to break all the old rules as with the current methods margins are very low, 2-3 % on small cars, so new things have to be tried. ...

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India and China subsidize the cost of fuel to their people. In India kerosene is the urban poor's cooking fuel. It sell around Delhi at Rs 9 a litre compared to a market rate of about Rs. 25. Inida subsidizes kerosene and liqueefied petroleum gas directly and subsidizes diesel and gasoline indirectly by preventing the state oil companies from increasing prices, instead issuing bonds that help compensate the oil companies for their increased costs of crude. In October the Government announced it would issue bonds worth 235 billion rupees this fiscal year to compensate the oil companies for 43% of their losses, according to Lombard Street Research, a British firm. The fuel subsidies amount to a total of $17.5 billion or about 2% of GDP. The government which is a shaky coalition facing elections in the near fuure is unlikely to hurt election prospects by increasing oil prices, in addition to the facts that the country's poor depend on these subsidies to carry on their daily lives.

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Peter Hotex of Baylor Medicine in the US is a pioneer and leader in getting low cost traditional vaccines to billions in Africa, Asia and Latin America.  Here Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine Tropical School is interviewed in The Hindu. He talks about how the new mRNA vaccines are "shiny toys" pushed forward in the US in 2020 under innovation drives, and that the vaccines made by traditional methods are just as effective and provide lasting protection. Without vaccinating the entire world population including the billions of people living in Africa, Asia and Latin America, there will be no end in sight for the pandemic, he says, and the best way to do this is through vaccines made by traditional methods, methods used by Bharat Biotech for Covaxin and Biological E for its vaccine. He said mRNA is a brand new technology  and "it will take years to scale it up to make 9 billion doses" of vaccine for poor countries. Baylor has developed the vaccine technology using traditional methods such as yeast fermentation expression technology used for Recombiannt Hepatitis-B vaccine. Its been around for 40 years. Baylor will transfer the technology to Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, all over the world. He says in terms of virus neutralizing anti-body immune responses it is as effective as the mRNA vaccines. Hotez is critical of some pharma companies- "the rest of them want to bicker about patents. we're not going to go down that direction." Baylor is providing its technology for manufacture to companies to fill the need in poor countries, without patent protection or quibbling about legal things such as indemnities, says Hotez. Hotez also thing recombinant protein technologies vaccine with its traditional approach could also overcome vaccine hesitancy, a key factor for unvaccinated in Europe and US which have stuck to mRNA vaccines. The newer technology behind mRNA could make parents hesitate to vaccinate their children with these technologies, and also be a part of the mental attitude of unvaccinated adults having hesitancy.   ...

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Lenovo shows a profit of $129 million for this fiscal year compared to a net loss of $226 million in the prior year. Revenues in the 1st quarter of 2010 went up to $4.32 billon from $2.77 billon with proft at $13 million. Margins are still under pressure because of growth in the lower priced PC market segment. Gross margins fell to 10.4% this year. To diversify Lenovo has introduced the Le Phone with China Unicom (Hong Kong) and sees sales of its mobile phones exceeding Apple's iPhone sales. It has also developed a prototype of a tablet PC in January 2010. PC shipments in China of $2 billon account for 45% of 3rd quarter revenues- up 67% in China's fast growing PC market. And Lenovo's plan is to expand sales in India, Russia and Turkey, from the current 5% in the fourth quarter ending March 31, 2010, to double digits.

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India's National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority placed pricing controls on frequently used antibiotics including Ciprofloxacin, diabetic drugs including Metformin, and heart medications. It also said it would audit manufacturers to ensure that normal production continues. The pricing authority acts under a 1955 law that requires pricing to be affordable for essential drugs needed by the vast majority of poor people in the country. Some mass consumption drugs are now imported where it is unprofitable to make them in India. In the case of other drugs the volume increases from lower prices increases access to medicines, and the volume makes up for the price cuts. An example cited by the pricing authority is essental antibiotic (especially for children), Augmentin, where the prices dropped by 40% but the volume increases as it became more affordable have more than made up for the price reductions, with overall sales higher than before the price cuts.

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The German government under Chancellor Merkel and the German public's preference for continuity and continuing the course Germany is in at this time. This is to continue the export emphasis for as long as possible to countries like China and India, which neede the machinery Germany makes. Exports makeup 47% of German GDP, the highest of large industrialized countries. German industries are being assisted by the government to keep employees and tide over the transition period as markets in Aisa and emerging countries stuggle to recover form the economic crisis. GErman industries in chemicals, automobiles, and machinery are feeling the change and are scaling down and moving to other countries where its advantageous to manufacture. The alternative of promoting entrpreneurial sectors such as software and computers has not met the same degree of success as building a large solar energy industry, in which Germany is taking a leadership role.

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China's assembly work accounts for just $3.70 of the Apple I Pod's value, The display module costs$20 made by Toshiba-Matsushita and of the $224 wholesale price $80 consisted of Apple's gross profit. This is from a study by 3 economists of the University of California at Berkeley and Irvine, Linden Dedrick and Kraemer. Out of electronic and IT exports of $300 billion China's value added was about 15% or $45 billion according to Leo Branstetter of Carnegie Mellon University. Foreign firms account for the largest share of exports and all of the top ten are overseas firms. In India mostly the IT business is a services business and it has not made the breakthrough to create original software products that are marketed worldwide.. In this sense there are a lot of missing pieces in both countries efforts and a lot remains to be done.

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The German ambassador to India calls the Indian preparations for the G-20 meetings simply outstanding. Annalena Baerbock, the German Foreign Minister, is a very unpretentious person and when her plane arrived early, decided to spontaneously leave the plane without any formal arrival ceremony. The German ambassador says- "she laughed, she thought to herself it was quite funny, and we had a very nice welcome." Annalena Baerbock is simply one of the friendliest persons from Germany to land in India. It is clear about the way she relates to Africa and India- Baerbock was amazing the way she took the Benin Bronzes back to their home ground in Nigeria from Germany recently. For India she is one of those rare visitors the country is grateful to have from Germany, and welcome like no other, as one of its own. Baerbock and Habeck have given Germans something they can feel optimistic about the future.

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In the next 15 years approximately India will have a higher percentage of working age population to non-working age population than China, based on information from the UN and Morgan Stanley. The number of people over 64 and under 15 has declined from 69% to 56% in 2010, according to UN figures. By 2020 the working age population will increase by 136 million in India, compared to 23 million in China. From this it can be seen that a huge demographic change is playing out. As China's economy matures and with the one-child policy in place, China's working age population is expected to decline; just as India's working age population picks up. This should give India momentum in the next 15-20 years, and lead to an increasing growth rate in India, just as China's growth rate slows. India's weak areas are infrastructure, and education. Infrastructure development will accelerate nevertheless, with larger private investments and participation in projects; and India will move up the experience curve as more projects are completed. Education for the poorer classes and in public schools will remain a problem. Private schools are making up for the weakness in this area, and private schools now make up 20% of attendance even in the rural areas according to one estimate. The strong points are democratic structures and the rule of law, private enterprise and private companies, English speaking middle class, and smart initiatives by business to develop low cost products that are affordable for all segments of sciety in India. For instance a $35 laptop developed by the IIT and Indian Institute of Science researchers, and Tata Chemicals development of a filter for 30 rupees or 65 cents that would filter water for a month for a family of five. This will bring the benefits of development to all segments of society as development progresses, and is crucial for balanced development in the poorer parts of Asia. Tata Motors 1 lakh ruppees car concept and the Tata Nano as its tangible product, is another verson of this kind of development being pioneered in India. Being a democratic country makes some processes slower, yet at the same time the private initiative enabled by democratic processes -cultivated over a long period from British times -enables a creative sort of development that could be turned into a distinct advantage....

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With the decline of its hardware business making iPhones Apple is looking at other fields. It is launching cheap online TV subscriptions in streaming wars in competition with Netflix and others. Apple is launching a new TV streaming service Apple TV+ in 100 countries for 4.99 British pounds a month undercutting Netflix's price of 5.99 pounds. The new service will be started November 1, 2019. Disney plans a streaming service for 7 pounds a month starting November 12. This service is alongside iPhone 11 launch and anew iPad, a new iWatch. Buy any new Apple device and you get a 1 year streaming service free.  Sales of iPhones fell 14% in the April to June 2019 quarter to 39 million units. Samsung's business is growing by 4% to 75 million units and Huawei by 16% to 58 million units. Apple sees the need to increases its services business with a target of $50 billion in 2020. Apple sees itself more as a media and cloud services company as it makes this change. In markets such as India Apple's growth is limited by its failure to lower prices on new iPhones. In China it faces strong competition from Huawei. The trade tensions are increasing the strength of Chinese brands in the Chinese market. The market in U.S. and Europe is saturated after years of expansion. New iPhone models are costly and bring peripheral advantages such as more and better cameras and features such as screens that are not breakable- for the iPhone 11- not dimensions that are critical for making a costly purchase. After years of growth tech companies such as Apple, Google, Alibaba, Amazon are reaching a point where incremental growth is not what it used to be and most of the rapid growth behind them. Trade tensions are also limiting the outlook in the Chinese market, and pricing remains a major factor in the Indian market. Western markets are saturated. There are fewer and fewer substantial new ideas from these tech companies. ...

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China's new prime minister Li Keqiang makes his first foreign trip with a trade delegation for talks with Indian representatives and business leaders, showing the importance he places on India. India offers China's companies access to large opportunties in infrastructure development, and China can benefit from India in the area of information technology and pharmaceuticals. Trade is envisioned as expanding from $70 billion in 2012 to $100 billion by 2015, and expanding rapidly as the two economies grow. Economic contacts also would provide an anchor for future relations as China faces difficulties in its relations with Japan, and S. E. Asian countries, and a U.S. wary of China's capabilities. This was pointed out in the joint statement. Li Keqiang also emphasized this in an editorial page article in India's daily newspaper, the Hindu, saying India and China have "to work hand in hand," to promote Asia as "an anchor for world peace." A peaceful India-China trade and economic relationship opens the way for investment and participation in development by China alongside Japan, Germany, France, UK and the U.S. in India, as the next major source for global economic growth. This also serves to defuse Asian tensions as both economies grow, and increased contacts between cities in India and China with the twining of cities program launched in the meetings. India can use China's capabilities in infrastructure development, the two countries share the need for information sharing on lowcost solutions in healthcare, in managing urbanization, and solutions for clean water in rural areas, and use of IT solutions in development, where much remains to be accomplished through cooperation. Some of these themes are the focus of Li Keqiang in his efforts for urbanization in China. ...

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The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact led by Japan and the U.S. moves to the next stage with legislation introduced by Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden in the U.S. Congress for granting trade promotion authority to the U.S. president. This would facilitate the negotiation of an agreement leading to concessions by different countries. Talks between Japan and the U.S. intensified with the U.S. president Obama saying in his 2015 State of the Union message that China wanted to write the rules for trade in Asia, and asking why the U.S. should not work to write its own rules. Defense Secretary, Aston Carter, called it more important than another aircraft carrier. Support from Europe, India and other countries for the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as a rival to the U.S. dominated World Bank and IMF, also give urgency to the TPP. The TPP countries, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Peru and Chile, make up over $400 billion of about $4 trillion in U.S. trade, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The TPP is now seen not just a free trade pact, but also as away to counter China's influence in Asia. Experts see the Obama administration as having bungled its handling of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which the U.S. did not join, and its allies in Europe, other Asian countries including India, decided to join as founding members. Democrats in Congress led by Senator Schumer, Warren, oppose the legislation granting fast track for free trade pacts citing the loss of jobs and lowering of wages for workers in manufacturing in the U.S., with only about a dozen Democrats favoring the legislation, leading to a split in the party. Projections by Peter Petri, Michael Plummer, Fan Zhai, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, show a net negative impact on depressed wage sectors such as U.S. manufacturing with additional $45 billion in U.S. imports and $35 billion in exports for heavy manufacturing from the TPP free trade pact, and additional $33 billion of U.S. imports and $10 billion exports in light manufacturing by 2025. Higher wage sectors such as U.S. Services including IT get a boost with additional $42 billion in exports and $ 8 billion imports. Agriculture shows insignificant gains with additional exports of $2 billion and imports of 0.5 billion. The auto and transport sector disproportionately favors Japan with $33 billion in additional U.S. imports and $8 billion in exports. ...

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India's Supreme Court ruling on the Delhi Government vs the Union of India case says that the power lies with the elected representatives not the Lieutenant Governor in India's democracy. For Delhi it is the elected government in which authority is vested. At the same time the ruling says these powers are not "absolute." The case arises from the conflict between the AAP Party and chief minister Kejriwal in Delhi with the central government appointed Lieutenant Governor.

Mr. Kejriwal conducted a protest at the LG Governor's offices because of this conflict.

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Joydeep Gupta, director for South Asia at North Pole, environmental news site, says 2050 is important but even more important is what India does now. This is why what Modi promised at COP26 Glasgow for 2030 matters- achieving 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, improvements of 45% in reducing carbon intensity, and cutting carbon emissions by 1 billion tons. Here Gupta looks at what India will be doing, the obstacles and ways of achieving these goals.

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The Times of India looks at four decades of the BJP party's presence in India's largest state Uttar Pradesh. The first BJP prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee is from this Hindi speaking region.

In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections the BJP party increased its vote percentage from 39% to 42%. The BJP plans for rapid economic development in the state were affected by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021, as resources were diverted to tackle vaccination and healthcare priorities. Uttar Pradesh is India's largest state with a population of 250 million. Much of India's development agenda is being shaped by the state's leadership and the federal government with the Master Plan of Gati Shakti and development from the grassroots to new airports, logistics for export markets and Made in India, new highways and modernized rail networks, infrastructure development, and industry.