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Didi Kirsten Tatlow describes the experience of Angel Feng, a 26 year old Chinese graduate from a business school in France, fluent in English, French, Japanese and Chinese. She intervews with Chinese companies in 2010, who always ask a last question about whether she is planning to have a baby and refuse to believe her when she says she does not plan this for five years. Her first job is with a company promoting Chinese brands, which turns out to be bad as the company fires people immediately to slash costs, maintains long working hours and does not respect basic rights. One woman has a miscarraige and is ordered back to work in three days. The socialist era structures have been removed in China and this includes some of the protections for women, and the old ideas are returning in force. Angel decides to work for a semi-state organization run by the Ministry of Education. Women's rights are better protected in state sector companies. The pay of $625 a month is abit lower but it has benefits, including lunch at the canteen, housing allowance, and hours are 8.30 to 5 pm for 5 days a week. Her employer, China Education Association for International Exchange, covers childbirth with employees given at least 90 days maternity leave with full pay....

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Plans to increase VW production in China by 70% for 2018 and introduce a small budget car designed for the Chinese market at a price range of 6000-8000 euros. A depressed European market with VW sales down 8% in Europe in the first 2 months of 2013, means a vigorous push in China, India, Russia, America and Southeast Asia. The new budget car would be modeled on Renault's Dacia. VW will build 10 plants outside Europe, 7 in China. Additional plants will increase capacity in China to 4 million vehicles from the current 2.3 million in March 2013.

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The US sees no contradiction to India looking for bargain priced oil from Russia to meet the growing needs of its economy and is actually furthering the goals of the G-7 by lowering the price Russia gets for its oil. It helps the economy of 1.2 billion people that like the rest of the world has struggled to fight the pandemic and has incurred the kind of heath costs that even China is now struggling to pay for. President Biden clearly understands and supports this. Democracies an only succeed if they fulfill the aspirations of their people. On this point Biden made clear in his State of the Union that he will generate what it takes from large corporations that paid no tax, to invest in America. Rather than fuel the profits of large oil companies India has increasingly chosen to use Russian discounted oil to invest in India. The Biden and Modi policies are identical generate savings and invest big time in trillions of dollars over the next few years to put democracies ahead in meeting rising aspirations that have been unfulfilled for far too long, which is where the real battles are being fought and will be won, and rightly so. US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, Geoffrey Pyatt,  said during a visit to New Delhi on Feb. 16-17- "Our experts now assess that India right now is enjoying a discount of about USD 15 a barrel in the price that it is paying for its imports of Russian crude. So by acting in its own interest, by driving a hard bargain to get the lowest price possible, India is furthering the policy of our G7 coalition, our G7 plus partners in seeking to reduce Russian revenues."  Looking at the bigger picture the problem was created by Germany under Merkel who built Germany's over dependency on Russian oil to power a cheap fuel economy it thought was in Germany's interest. This is now being reversed by the hard work of Mr. Habeck of the Green party in the coalition government of Scholz in securing alternative supplies in record time for the EU to avoid a recession. In this sense the perception created early of India which has suffered itself from invasions in 1962 and incursions in the Himalayas more recently, it is not a problem India can solve by becoming energy short at a time when it has invested so much in fighting the pandemic. A similar problem was created by Republican and Democratic administrations of the past that concentrated the supply chain in one country. India lost much investment in the last 8 years as a result of the policies of Merkel's Germany and past Republican Democratic administrations in concentrating the supply chain in one country. ...

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In a first at Davos World Economic Forum, China's president Xi Jinping uses the 2017 meeting to give a one hour long spirited defense of the world trading system, critical of U.S. president elect Trump's protectionist views without naming him. Xi pointed out that "no one will be winners in a trade war." And went on to add that restricting world trade was like "locking oneself in a dark room, keeping out wind and rain from outside but also light and air." For the first time Jinping stated that China would take the U.S. role of defending the world trading system from attack as needed. On climate change Xi defended the Paris accords, and gave China's commitment to pursue changes regardless of what the U.S. under president Trump does. This follows Chancellor Merkel of Germany's statements on the issue critical of the views of president elect Trump, and taking the lead to defend the world trading system. Xi also pointed out that many of the ills that led to voter discontent in the West were not really from the freeing up of trade but from the pursuit of excessive profit with the financial crisis of 2008.   ...

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Boeing plans to have a new facility in China complete assembly of its 737 jets by the end of 2018. The finishing center is being built near Shanghai. Boeing's order book is up to 5800 jets at a value of $518 billion. About one fifth are in deliveries planned for China. Inflight entertainment systems, seat systems and other finishing for aircraft will be done at the new facility. Boeing continues to see this a a part of doing business in China even as tensions have increased with China over tariff issues and market access. Boeing says it will continue to assemble 737s at its plant near Seattle, and send some planes for completion to China. Sales to Iran will require following Trump administration guidelines.

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Jacobs and Richtel of the NYT give this exceptional story of how Mexico changed between 1980 and 2016. Following the joining of NAFTA free trade zone the Mexican diet and food ecosystem began to more closely resemble the food diet system in the U.S. bringing with it severe health consequences. Soda and coke are now more entrenched in Mexico, as are fast food outlets. In 1980 only 7% of Mexicans were obese, compared to 20% in 2016, according to Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington. And diabetes kills 80,000 people a year, becoming the top killer according to the World Health Organization. A trade expert at Tufts University, Timothy Wise, says Mexico took on the worst aspects of a first world country like the U.S., with few protections. A similar problem is taking place in India and China as obesity grows, according to the T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard, as low nutrient highly processed foods of large food companies with huge advertising budgets take a prominent place in diets. This is a growing problem for countries from Colombia to Ghana and Nigeria. ...

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Automobile parts imports into the U.S. have increased from $89 billion in 2008 to $138 billion in 2014, up from only $31.7 billion in 1990. In a huge shift in wages with increasing global competition wages at an American Axle plant in Michigan at $10 an hour are about what Target stores and Wal-mart pay for retail workers. An new generation of workers in manufacturing are seeing a shift from being in the middle class during their parents generation to lower class, with this downward pressure on wages as parts are manufactured in places such as Mexico and China.

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A 2024 Study by the International Trade Commission predicted that a 25% tariff on imports would reduce imports by almost 75 percent while increasing average prices in the US by about 5 percent.  As US companies have about half of the US auto market this would mean US auto manufacturers now have access to an additional 37 percent of the market by investing in auto plants in the US. US steel and aluminium plants will get additional investment to build these cars in the US. There is nothing new about this the US makers built plants in China. Germans, Japanese and Koreans took the US for stupid by keeping US cars out of their markets and thinking this could go on while by destroying US manufacturing it was  destroying America's middle class. It also gives the Germans BMW and VW, Subaru, the Japanese Toyota and Honda, Nissan, the South Koreans Kia and Hyundai, Chinese makers of EV's the option to Make in the USA and build plants invest in US manufacturing.  ...

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The documentary "Last Train Home," directed by Lixin Fan, shows the life of migrant workers and their families in China. Fan sporadically spent 3 years with one family, Zhang Changhua and Cheng Suqin, to capture glimpses of this family's life as one of China's 130 million migrant workers. The family left a village in Sichuan province, to work in a factory in Guangzhou, which manufactures denim jeans. For 7 days a week -once working 15 hours a day for 29 days straight- the Zhang family works continuously, just to send money back home to the grandmother who raises 17 year old Qin and another child. The daughter is rebellious as she is resentful of the parent's absence. This is the story of migrant families throughout China, the quiet hidden ordeal, that is behind the cheap products available in western countries. And Fan documents this well with scenes at the railway station, as the family catches the last trains back to Sichuan, for the yearly trip back to the village. There is a whole society in transition, and there are many sides to this story, this is the human one of families caught up in this transition. Lack of farm subsidies and taking over of farmland for building and construction has hurt life in agricultural areas. The Communist party has made dissent difficult. And the imposition of a decades old registration system that denies education and social services to migrant workers from the villages, creates huge strains on family life. Fan says- before the showing of this film at the IFC Center in Greenwich Village- that he hopes to raise questions in the minds of viewers. Does the blame for this go to the government, the factory owners and companies, or the West, something Fan says he is not able to answer. That there is little official opposition to the film- in the same manner that the suicides at Hon Hai, and the factory conditions there and in other factories across China, are being freely reported- suggests that China is coming to terms with the different angles from which to view the economic transition that has taken place over the last two decades. It is also a belated recogniton of the whole range of questions raised by a singleminded policy of manufacturing for western markets, especially when these markets with debt-laden consumers may present huge uncertainty in the future....

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Crude oil or crude world. This book by Peter Maas "Crude World: The Violent Twilight of Oil," shows how places like Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea suffer from the lack of infrastructure and jobs, as the oil industry does not create many jobs and the companies and the ruling classes in these countries are the main beneficiaries. Nigeria's anticorruption official, Nuh Ribadu, is cited in the WSJ, with an estimate of $380 billion of $400 billion in oil revenues in Nigeria over 3 decades being wasted through corruption and misuse of funds, with little money going into infrastructure and jobs. Manufacturing in China, Vietnam, and Malaysia for basic consumer products from textiles to shoes, creates jobs even at low wages, making the people in these countries better off as wages rise. Oil on the other hand creates few jobs and companies do not move upscale manufacturing tech products in the next stage of manufacturing, leaving the people as worse off as before. The margins are thin in manufacturing, whereas much of the oil revenue can be deposited in accounts of influential individuals. Mouwad in the NYT points out 93% of profits go to the government in Nigeria, only 7% to western oil companies. Even in countries which have tried to root out corruption through socialist experiments such as Venezuela and religious parties such as in Iran, the failure to integrate with the globalized economy and extremist policies leads to lack of development and backwardness. This shows that the best way to develop is through emphasis on education, science and technology, building a culture that thrives on modernization and technological advancement over several decades, even if this means starting with basics and continually moving forwards into higher technologies. Japan, South Korea and China moved from shoes and textiles to iPads and smartphones, Japan starting in the 60's, S. Korea in the 80's and China in the 90's. ...

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Slower growth for luxury car sales in China in 2013. German carmakers BMW, Audi and Mercedes are strong in this segment.

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Average return on U.S. IPO's for 2011 is a loss of 18% for institutional investors getting in on day one according to Dealogic analysis of 23 IPO's. For small investors the losses are 34%.

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Procter and Gamble's new CEO, Robert McDonald, set a new goal of over half a million customers a day for five years, hoping to add people in remote villages of China, India and other developing countries for its shampoos, toothpaste, diapers and other products. In many places people are not even familiar with the products like diapers, and need education about the benefits and use. McDonald sees the potential as just "absolutely amazing, amazing." And under the prior CEO, Lafley, progress was made in Mexico, and developing countries are now 32% of the $78 billion in sales, up from 23% four years ago in 2005. Sales are doubling every 4 years in these countries. In Mexico the marketing at low price points throughout Mexico has moved sales per capita to $20, which compares to $1 for India and $3 for China. The idea is to move China, India and places like Nigeria up to the Mexican level. McDonald sees sales growth of $40 billion with this move. Distribution is a challenge, and new ways to use these products and their design for low price markets and local customer habits is needed to make this a success. Families that don't use diapers are encouraged to start using them only once a day at night to promote restful sleep, and young girls are introduced to feminine hygiene pads. Shampoo is in tiny packets for 1-2 uses and may cost no more than an egg. Even though this puts P&G in head on competition with better established Colgate and Unilever, P&G executives see the efforts of all 3 companies actually helping to educate the people in using these products and broadening the market for all. ...

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This review of Acemoglu and Robinson in the MIT News is relevant to the situation faced today. The two professors at MIT and University of Chicago, have provided two books relevant to today's crises, the first "When Nations Fail" in 2012 about the need for inclusive nations, and the second "The Narrow Corridor" about the importance of the role of individual and society in sustaining democracy. Their point in the first book "When Nations Fail" in 2012 coming after the financial crisis caused by banking excesses stated that the nations fail when they are not inclusive.  In practice it is about " the system being rigged" to favor some groups as the Republican party and Mr. Trump say has happened. The banks and lobbyists, pharmaceutical industry and lobbyists, tech industry and lobbyists, leading to a system where individual and society are pushed into a corner. Social theorist and economists fail to look at things in practice such as profit seeking behaviours and unethical behaviour that goes unchecked, which continued after the financial crisis into the election of 2016, with charges of rigged systems.  This week Germany's DW.com oped pages covered New York with the statement that treatment in New York costs $15,000 for coronavirus infection illness yet many New York residents in the worst affected neighborhoods would find a $500 expense difficult to bear. Early closing of schools to control infection rate was resisted by Mayor De Blasio of New York because many parents depended on schools for lunches for their kids. The situation had been allowed to deteriorate to that level.  In their second book the MIT authors are saying that the role of the individual and society are important to check that of the state (for example if it is perceived as being rigged by the influence of lobbying of legislators and politicians as the Republican party and Mr. Trump have maintained). It is only when it is checked and there is some tension is there the possibility of democracy and democratic processes, say the two MIT authors. In the absence of this the states and elites of politicians and business interests supporting the leaders and their common behaviours, become a perpetual state, in effect a one party rule of two parties with similar behaviours and interests in the state. A situation that allowed the outshoring of American manufacturing and European manufacturing to China including critical infrastructure, essential infrastructure over 2 decades even over the protests of Mr. Lighthizer since 2010. As the twin crises evolved in Europe of austerity policies after banking excesses in Europe, and the migration crisis of migrants coming from North Africa and the wars in the Middle East, a similar situation began to develop in Europe as the political elites entrenched in Germany, France, and Spain faced new voices. The tensions that arose were constructive bringing in the role of society and individual that the MIT authors say are so necessary for the narrow corridor of democratic process to function. New parties emerged in France with Macron's La Republique En Marche, Podemos and Ciudadanos in Spain, and in Germany with the SPD and CDU shrinking till the revival of Merkel for her handling of the pandemic. Coming from an intuitive way born from experience in East Germany, Germany's recent president Joachim Gauck, civil rights activist  came up with the same ideas. He is a Lutheran pastor in former East Germany who struggled against the government of the German Democratic Republic (former communist East Germany) for a role for individual and society against the state. We profiled and quoted him in "The Way Forward"  column in Lyrarc.com. Gauck's point was that  having diverse groups in the conversation is important, not excluding others from outside in the conversation is important. Gauck called  debate "the oxygen of democracy,"  that needed to be maintained.  Genuine democratic process is hard to sustain, it happens only when the role of individual and society is given prominence, so that only a narrow corridor exists for democracy, a narrow space in which can be sustained only if the effort is there, the goodwill is there, and the grace of Divine Providence.  It is fragile and it is critical to sustain.   In this sense the sometimes heated debate in the U.S. and Europe, Asia and Latin America about words such as- austerity, community, solidarity, migration, New York Mayor De Blasio's choice between school lunches and infections, about infrastructure, pharmaceutical prices, infrastructure, outshoring, jobs sent overseas, manufacturing locally, made in USA or made in India or made in France, Atmannirbhar Bharat, misallocation of capital starving health and public services, are all relevant and essential for democracy. This includes the discussion to avoid use of the military in protests in American cities in the middle of a pandemic which just crossed the 2 million mark in cases in the U.S., that was taken up by Defense Secretary Esper. In it lies the hope for democracy and many voices. Der Spiegel recent look at the pandemic how it happened in China, closes with the line- you need more than one voice in society. A constant reminder that many voices be heard, counseling patience, but also that wise choices be made with divine providence.           ...

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VW AG China will recall cars with direct shift gearbox systems with quality issues, including acceleration problems. This follows a CCTV broadcast of consumer issues program 315 on World Consumer Rights Day. The 315 program has taken up quality issues of foreign brands in China, including Carrefours, McDonalds, Yum Brands, and Apple. The program shows the shift in China supported by the new government for greater attention to consumer issues. It acts as a signal to foreign manufacturers in China to provide the same quality and attention to detail in the Chinese market that is provided in their home markets. For companies such as VW that depend on the Chinese market for growth, and generally for German, Japanese and U.S. manufacturers that depend on export growth, this will be the new standard for the Chinese market. Companies are at greater risk of quality problems during periods of rapid expansion, such as that being experienced by VW as it ramps up to become the leading global automobile manufacturer. This is similiar to the situation Toyota faced in 2009 leading to recall problems in the U.S. and negative publicity....

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The demand for ships went up so steeply that shipping rates hit the roof, and the prices of ships went up accordingly. Between the end of 2006 and July 2008 , shipyards received enough commissions, says the Economist, that this would double the world's fleet. Just as demand has collapsed and international trade has gone down, about 9000 ships are coming onstream. Now 11% of fleet capacity justs sits on the water, in the seas outside the harbors of Singapore, Hong Kong and other southeast Asian ports. A 150 tonne cape class ship that sold in 2003 for $18.5 million in the used market, when rates for charter were $15,000 a day, had risen by summer 2008, to $85 million with rates of $175,000 a day. These rates went up even more to $300,000 a day, which is 20 times what it was in 2003. And rates today are back down to $15,000 a day, where they were in 2003. This ship, cited by a broker, to give some idea of the extent of this boom and its collapse, was sold for scrap at $7 million. And South Korean shipyards are taking this into account, in their pricing and collection of payment, with 20% demanded upfront, 60% during construction, and 20% upon delivery. The backlog in shipyards is estimated by Clarkson Research, a maritime research firm, at $526 billion, even as banks are leery of lending and concerned about the value of the collateral in the event of default. Some smaller Korean shipyards are closing. Steve Mann, analyst at HSBC, says that half of the orders for delivery in 2010 will be delayed, so that there is work for 2011 and inventory or excess capacity does not pile up on the oceans. Even in this situation China, India and Vietnam continue to support the expansion of their own shipyards. This suggests additional losses for shipbuilders, shipping lines and the banks that lend to shipyards. All this also goes to show that the rush to industrialize, once it gets a firm footing- like it has in the Chinese model of increasing investment and local governments pushing infrastructure, industry and export factories with officials judged on GNP growth numbers- can exacerbate a boom-bust cycle. This is one industry, others include machinery manufacturers, commodity producers, and manufacturers of parts that go into finished products assembled in China for export. This means it would take the world economy down with it, if some external factor like the drop in export demand suddenly slows everything down. Machinery manufacturers in Germany, commodity producers in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and manufacturers of the high tech parts in Japan and Taiwan that are shipped to China for assembly, all go down in this boom-bust cycle, in a dramatic manner. ...

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The Trump administration is set to impose 15% tariffs on $156 billion of Chinese goods including laptops, mobile phones, and apparel, on December 15, 2019. This is in addition to the tariffs already in place on $361 billion of Chinese goods. The new list of goods for the tariffs on December 15 are goods that are made mostly in China. About 87% of the goods on this list are made only in China. If talks fail with China by this week the tariffs will go into effect. WIth this tariff all goods imported from China will have tariffs on the goods imported into the U.S. adding to the difficulties facing the Chinese economy. A recent article in the WSJ shows China is shifting to higher skilled manufacturing and the service sector to maintain jobs growth.

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The Journal's Jeff Bennett talks with Rodney O'Neal, the CEO of Delphi Automotive. O'Neal says Delphi's success depends on focussing on advanced technologies where emerging market producers are less able to compete. He has focussed on 33 product lines which are 'green,' safe' and connected.' If it doen't create value then revenue and cost numbers are wrong, is O'Neal's lesson from the bankruptcy filing. He likes the chaotic discussion coming form strong debate, where views are expressed with passion and counterpoints made, and he takes this debate seriously, because as he sees it choosing the right course is a significant task in itself, which takes much time to correct if wrong. There are major improvements in emission and fuel economy ahead and a high tech future for the automobile industry. He see America's future in high-tech where America can do better than emerging market producers, and ensuring that the steady flow of exceptional American talent continues to be channelled properly....

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Policy shift by the National Development and Reform Commission in China to protect domestic carmakers by reducing incentives given to foreign automobile companies. This happens as a rapid deceleration of the car market in China is taking place leaving foreign automakers in a stronger position compared to local automakers.