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Kessler in the WP corrects Obama's claim that he created 800,000 jobs. He says this is clever arithmetic as it takes a low point in Feb. 2010 following the financial crisis. Kessler points out that according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. manufacturing jobs were 12.56 million in Jan. 2009 when Obama became president. In Nov. 2016, early estimates show there were 12.26 million manufacturing jobs, a loss of 300,000. This loss does not reflect the problems in the U.S. auto industry and older industries in the midwestern states as a result of trade and globalization that speeded up with the rapid industrialization of China. And led as Greg Ip pointed out in a recent WSJ report to a rapid acceleration of job losses in a decade that did not happen in the same scale during Japan's industrialization and urbanization in the sixties. This aggravated the situation in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania, and was met with a feeble response from Democrats. Even a economist like Krugman favoring the Obama administration's efforts came to the conclusion that TPP did not add much to gains from trade as most of the gains had already been realized. More of the gains went to tech and IT in California, at the expense of the auto industry based in the midwest. A report in WP show a president too close to IT in California and failing to grasp the situation in the midwest. Voters punish whoever is in power, regardless of being Conservative or Liberal, in Canada the hollowing out of manufacturing under Harper in Ontario and Quebec led to the win by Trudeau's Liberals.  ...

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Elbridge Colby memo led to slowing of US shipments to Ukraine in July 2025 just as Russia expanded its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine. Leading DJT to resume all shipments and override Colby as he supported shipment of Patriot systems to  Ukraine, with Germany willing to pay for the cost. Who is Colby? Colby 45 years, was made undersecretary of defense for policy in DJT second term. He is the grandson of a former CIA director, attended school in Japan where his father was working at an investment bank, and later at Yale Law School. Colby's view is for the US to focus on Asia, specifically on China and the defense of Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan. He does not favor Ukraine in NATO, sees Russia as a potential partner, and is a Republican who opposed the war in Iraq as a monumental waste of American resources. Some of his views are controversial such as focus only on China when US faces other threats around the world. Colby opposed an attack on Iran and even argued that US could manage a nuclear armed Iran which he has now retracted. ...

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Debt of poor countries is a serious problem in 2022. Debt owed to foreign lenders by low and middle income countries increased by 6.9% on average to $9.3 trillion in 2021, faster than the 5.3% in 2020, according to World Bank estimates. As a result the percentage of the poorest countries in debt distress or high risk of debt distress increased from 15% in 2015 to 60% in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund.  The pandemic has clearly worsened the situation for countries in weak economic situations in 2019. A country is in debt distress when it is unable to fulfill its financial obligations and debt restructuring is required. Argentina, Sri Lanka, Pakistan are recent examples of countries undergoing serious debt restructuring after falling behind in debt payments. Rising interest rates, inflation, and weak growth lower government revenues and make it harder to make the debt payments to service the debt. A list of weaker economies shown in this WSJ report where interest rates have risen are Russia, Ukraine and Belarus in Europe, Argentina, Ecuador and Venezuela in Latin America, Ethiopia, Ghana and Mozambique in Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in Asia. Mismanagement of the economies, overborrowing, not taking corrective action during a period before the crisis, corruption, wars or drought, factors affecting tourism or remittances from overseas, are some of the factors leading to debt distress. ...

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Galston of the Brookings Institution says globalization has hurt workers in manufacturing with job losses and declining incomes. It has produced outcomes that have favored some industries such as tech, and not others such as automobiles which in the past helped create the broad middle class by offering good paying jobs to people with less than a college education. Immigration has created an issue that political leaders outside of the main parties have appealed to in France, the U.S. and Britain. The result is a polarization in the voters that has rarely been seen to this extent before. The middle class in the period from the 1950's to the 1980's is not the middle class that we see today in Europe and the U.S. The 2008 financial crisis added to the problems with the slow and uncertain recovery for some groups such as white men, the less educated, students, and people on minimum wage. 

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Dana Milbank describes comments by Dick Cheney, former vice president, on the Iran nuclear deal of 2015, and what he sees as the lack of credibility Cheney brings based on his handling of the WMD issue in Iraq.

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Property sales are estimated to fall by 28-33% in China, twice as earlier forecast by S&P Global Ratings. This is a steep decline that will affect the Chinese economy so dependent on construction. This week there were reports of property buyers in 100 cities getting together to withhold payments on unfinished apartments. Property developers depend on these payments as they have severe liquidity problems and need cash for operations.

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There may be psychological hurdles in China's growth with the effects on mental health from lockdowns in major cities, the revolt in the property sector with home buyers losing confidence in developers, the loss of confidence of foreign investors from US and EU. The dependence on the property sector to carry so large a burden of growth for the last 2 decades in China may now look like an error. The dependence on foreign investment may also be an error as the loss of confidence could mean some withdrawal and a lack of sustained investment.  It could even be said that restraints on both sectors property and foreign investors could have created alternative paths to growth, and reduced the shift of factories from the US and Europe to China that have now caused trade friction and and a reverse shift of investment back to home countries of US and EU. Trade friction has it appears backfired in a way that extends to the overall relationship which could have been prevented by preventing the hyper growth that happened. Greg Ip of the WSJ has argued that compared to Japan's growth in the sixties and seventies from a country of 100 million the hyper growth for a country of 1 billion for 2 decades created a massive impact on communities in US and EU that were dependent on factories that were lost to China. This has alienated large sectors of the public in the US and EU which could have been prevented by restraints on hyper growth in China. Ip says the growth was too large and too fast for the US to cope. It may have permanently damaged the relations between the two countries showing that trade and globalization had unintended effects when left to business and governments staying away from keeping an eye on how it was happening. ...

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This report in WSJ says China's government faces severely strained government finances. Local government entities sale of land financed 40% of local government revenues in China, and most of these have dried up with the very real loss of confidence in property sector. Government now faces $900 billion in shortfall in revenues says this report. There may be psychological hurdles in China's growth with the effects on mental health from lockdowns in major cities, the revolt in the property sector with home buyers losing confidence in developers, the loss of confidence of foreign investors from US and EU. The dependence on the property sector to carry so large a burden of growth for the last 2 decades in China may now look like an error. The dependence on foreign investment may also be an error as the loss of confidence could mean some withdrawal and a lack of sustained investment.  It could even be said that restraints on both sectors property and foreign investors could have created alternative paths to growth, and reduced the shift of factories from the US and Europe to China that have now caused trade friction and and a reverse shift of investment back to home countries of US and EU. Trade friction has it appears backfired in a way that extends to the overall relationship which could have been prevented by preventing the hyper growth that happened. Greg Ip of the WSJ has argued that compared to Japan's growth in the sixties and seventies from a country of 100 million the hyper growth for a country of 1 billion for 2 decades created a massive impact on communities in US and EU that were dependent on factories that were lost to China. This has alienated large sectors of the public in the US and EU which could have been prevented by restraints on hyper growth in China. Ip says the growth was too large and too fast for the US to cope. It may have permanently damaged the relations between the two countries showing that trade and globalization had unintended effects when left to business which has no comprehension of how the macro developments can affect the relations between the peoples if the other effects in the relationship such as community impacts are ignored which business says is not its role,  and governments staying away from keeping an eye on how it was happening and adjusting for ill effects with restraint and redirection of business policies. ...

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China's manufacturing sector contracts in June with the PMI index dropping below 50 - to 49.0.  Exports were also coming in lower. Experts say the increase in interest rates by the US is reducing imports of Chinese goods into the US. This comes as local governments are strained in their finances by $900 billion, and a budding revolt is taking place from property buyers with developers in financial trouble, as reported in the WSJ. Psychological hurdles now loom in the loss of confidence in the public in the property sector, loss of confidence of foreign investors with many constraints in operating, mental health issues for the population in many cities with the covid lockdowns.   The growth has slowed to 0.4% and there is now a realization dawning that there was overdependence both on property sector and foreign investment that set up new factories offshored from the US and Europe that alienated the public in these countries. Unlike wih the situation of Japan in the sixties and seventies for modernizing its economy growth of the scale China was pushed into by misguided and self interested  business interests in the US including its investment banks and local government officials in China without restraint by the central government in Beijing, ultimately led to trade friction and permanent damage to US China friendly relations. Communities in the US and the EU simply could not cope with the hyper growth from hyper shift of factories from the home countries to China that pushed this hyper growth. The property sector played the same role in the domestic front with too big a burden carried by it resulting in hyper growth. This did not have to happen. It happened because of a lack of understanding that this would have consequences in the longer run which is now showing up. ...

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A delicate balancing act for the Federal Reserve, in not withdrawing support to the debt securitization markets in a manner that throws the economy off balance, and leads to the collapse of credit markets still again. Lee Sachs, an advisor to Timothy Geithner, Treasury secretary, says that its important to do it incrementally, where and when you think you can, and not sooner. The debt securitization markets act as a shadow banking system, they finance mortgages for homes, corporate loans, student loans, credit card debt. Before the debt crisis in 2008, banks made loans for mortgages, and then sold these loans packaged into securities in the debt securtization markets. 60% of American credit has in recent years come from this process of debt securitization. This is how the markets look at this time in September 2009. 1. A thriving private market in securities packaged out of home mortgages, collapsed from $744 billion in 2005 at the peak, to $8 billion during first half 2009. THe Fed is almost the only buyer of mortgage backed securities, with $905 billion of these government guaranteed securities purchased through mid September, 80-85% of the market. 2. The market for bonds backed by consumer debt - credit card debt, auto loans and student loans - has recovered to before the crisis. But this is only because of the government's Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility or TALF, which provides attractive government financing to buyers. Hyun Song Shin, a Princeton University economist, who is an expert in this area, says the big question is what happens without TALF, can the market stand on its own two feet or is it permanently hobbled. 3. The market for securities in commercial real estate loans has not seen any securties issued in two years. Overall says Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist, the security markets are dead, we are stuck in a situation where no one knows what will happen when the government gets out of these markets. The Fed will continue to support the mortgage markets till it goes from the $905 billion now to $1.25 trillion. At that point it will have to make some tough decisions, and banks are not lending, making it tougher for business. On top of this banks liquidity requirements are being increased after the G20 agreement, and Britain's FSA has already taken the initiative on this. And a further $50 billion in corporate real estate securities are to be refinanced in 2010, says CALPERS, Arnold Phillips. If there is no mechanism to address support here, these properties will default, leading to bank losses and even tighter credit. ...

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Galston says the Republican establishment's support for Trump before the Republican primary in Iowa is shortsighted and a mistake.

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This Washington Post editorial says many Republican leaders have shown lack of courage to speak up against the anti-immigrant rhetoric, and other extreme positions taken by Trump. A separate op-ed piece by Robert Kagan, says this leaves him little choice as a Republican but to vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton.

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Rosa Ines Rivera, a cook at the cafeteria for the Y.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, with 2 small children, describes the protests over the increase by Harvard administration of the premiums charged on health insurance that now take up over 10% of the income. She says she lives in public housing with her parents as she lost her apartment because she is behind on the rent, and now cannot afford to pay the increase in premiums. About 750 workers at Harvard are on strike on this issue. She says dining hall workers want the current pay of $31,193  a year increased to $35,000 to provide a living wage that helps them afford medical care, because of the high cost of living in Boston.  To get some idea of the plight of workers who provide the kind of nutritious meals that a lot of students depend on for healthy living- Rivera says she takes in about $450 a week after taxes, or about $1800, rent is $1150, which leaves $650 for herself and two children for all food, and expenses in Boston. The $4000 in premiums for health insurance would be about 330 per month, leaving her about $320 for food and living expenses with 2 children. Why the need to bring up children in poverty in America, for generation after generation, after putting in a full day of work? ...

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Different visions of primary education, one from the Cambridge Primary Review, and the other from Sir Jim Rose, for children in the UK. Sir Jim Rose thinks there is a lot of overcrowding of subjects in primary education or curriculum overload, and wants to go back to a core curriculum, computer skills, a foreign language, and replace the 12 subjects taught with 6 crosscutting areas of learning. Cambridge Review doesn't see overcrowding as the problem but the lack of good quality teaching of subjects outside the narrow diet of numeracy and literacy. They don't like the dumbing down to core subjects and want to see a broad, rich and balanced curriculum. The Government is following Sir Jim Roses's report as it has been commissioned by the government and is written by one government report writer. By contrast the Cambridge Primary review is independently conceived and has been years in its preparation and draws on international experience and many experts. They are both very different in their perspectives. This is too important an issue, the educational upbringing of a whole new generation of children, to be left to a kind of random selection without discussion of the different views and their merits. ...

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Robert Kagan makes the case for continued leadership of the U.S as a champion of liberal democracy and free trade, as the view that it will just happen in a multipolar world of China, India, the U.S. and Europe, is not credible. The existing democracies- India, Brazil, Turkey, S. Africa, Australia -are weak and lack the experience to provide this leadership. India and China could easily end up in rivalry in a multipolar world. This has implications for today. The U.S. cannot provide this leadership as a services economy- it needs a strong manufacturing base to do this. Lessening inequality was a hallmark of the progress made in the 20th century, and especially the six decades since World War II when the U.S. clearly exercized this leadership. The progress to European unity was another hallmark of these six decades. A healthy Japan was also part of this.

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The Post's Lally Weymouth interviews Enrique Pena Nieto, leading presidential candidate in Mexico. Nieto discusses the war on drug cartels. He says his government is commited to continuing the fight, but says Calderon's strategy has not worked, and the need now is for reducing the rising level of crime. Nieto's priorities are to open up the economy to competition by reducing the power of the monopolies and oligarchs, reduce poverty by providing social security to all Mexicans, increasing private investment in Pemex, and increasing the taxpayer base to finance new investment and programs.

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Mead points out that the world with an effective U.S. leadership based on democracy and the values we cherish is needed now more than ever, after the failures of the Bush and Obama administrations to provide the kind of balanced leadership all Americans can stand behind. A world without an effective and enlightened leadership from the U.S, is one in which the world could fall apart in regional rivalry, one in which the hundreds of millions of people in the poorer parts of India, China, Russia, Brazil, and other developing countries of the world, will have less opportunity to meet their aspirations for a better life. This is because a focus on development requires less regional rivalry and because serious missteps can reverse in a few years decades of economic progress as shown in the 2008 global financial crisis. More so because we live in an increasingly interdependent global economy. It is also the kind of world where suppression of freedoms and suppression of the opposition as in China and Russia, provides a wrong kind of message, a world in which we or our children would not want to live in. Russia, India and China, are too driven by rivalry and lack the deep experience to go it alone, multipolar is more likely to end up being multipolar rivalry leading to a race to the bottom, which would be bad for all, especially for the poor in Asia and the developing world. The 2008 crisis showed what some serious economic mistakes could do to employment and incomes in the world with output dropping by a third in most places. Political missteps could lead to a slippery slope of this magnitude but more difficult to correct. Greater participation in the political process and more enlightened leadership is needed in all countries to allow many voices and greater interaction across boundaries, focussing on the dangers of such multipolar rivalries. The world of the G-7 is already moving to the G-20 where many voices are heard and serious discussion of differences takes place, but participatory is different from multipolar....

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Dow Chemical CEO, Anthony Liveris, is co-chair of the Advanced Manufacturing Partnership, an effort to bring together federal government, industry, universities and other groups to invest in new technologies that would generate good-quality jobs and increase U.S. competitiveness. He writes this letter in the Wall Street Journal to correct two misperceptions. The first, is that government has no significant role in nurturing an environment that is good for business and manufacturing industry. Because other countries, including China, are now operating like companies, it is important not to let the U.S. be in a disadvantageous position. Government has always been involved in its writing of tax and incentive policies, regulations, trade agreements, and creating a climate of certainty. The second, is that the loss of manufacturing capacity and job losses in the last 10 years are different from the job losses in the 1980's. These are not the low tech and less efficient manufacturing job losses of the 1980's, but job losses as a result of moving advanced manufacturing capacity and research and development centers to outside of the U.S. Of the 8 million jobs lost in the last recession, he says two million manufacturing jobs of higher pay and supporting employment in other sectors were lost. His point: its time to focus on expanding manufacturing in the U.S. because manufacturing is the sector with the highest multiplier effect on other sectors. Public-private partnerships are critical to this effort for increasing technology development and increasing investment. This view is supported by other experts....