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To really understand American history from its founding with the Mayflower voyage read the two volumes of Francis Parkman of the period between 1600-1756 that is rarely read and understood about how the American Indians and the French, the British, lived and built new settlements on the American continent. It is told in a very readable and authentic way by the greatest history and story book teller of this period. Library of America published Francis Parkman's France and England in North America. The Washington Post said that a thousand years from now, if their are still Americans here, Parkman will be their Homer. Too much of the American story told by only one person and PBS documentaries. One can learn about it simply by reading about it through different books, asking one's own questions,  and coming up with one's own understanding of American history which would be more authentic. This would include excellent biographies written by authors such as David McCullough whose range and vision combined with other authors including Barbara Tuchman for the 19th century, and many British authors such as Roger Knight covering the Napoleonic period offer a better picture of European and American history intermingled, a better perspective than the monopoly business venture that history becomes with these PBS documentaries by one person.           ...

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U.S. president Obama called Libya and the policy of not following up on helping establish a stable democratic government in Libya his biggest mistake. Kristof of the NYT says people looking back would say Syria and not establishing safe zones is Obama's biggest mistake. He describes the 470,000 deaths in Syria as a huge tragedy that could have been avoided to a large extent by setting up safe zones. In addition the UN estimates that millions of refugees on a scale similar to the partition of India in 1947 were created.There is bipartisan opinion on this. Kristof cites General Cartwright's opinion in a conversation he had with Cartwright that this should have been done. Others who agree are Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton's Secretary of State, who spoke at the Democratic Convention about how America helped change her life as a young refugee after Russia's invasion of Czechoslovakia following Prague Spring. Albright says force should be used carefully so as not to aggravate the situation but action taken where needed, something that was done successfully under Bill Clinton in the Bosnian conflict following Serbia's ethnic cleansing policy under Milosevic. Not only that, with the diplomacy of ambassador Holbrooke Clinton was able to negotiate the peace accords that hold till today- a huge achievement.  Kori Schake, director of defense strategy in the George W. Bush White House also agrees. This would have improved U.S. relations with Turkey as this was a key Turkish request. And it would have reduced the dimensions of the refugee crisis in Europe, which has hurt the European Union. The Brexit "No" vote many in Britain have attributed to ads showing refugees in endless numbers streaming across Europe's borders. Similar ads were used in Austria's elections. Kristof points out that Secretary of State Kerry's job of negotiating a peace is difficult in these conditions. Another issue raised by Kristof is the lack of Obama's leadership in helping the refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, as he points out only 41% of this is funded. David Miliband former British Foreign Secretary, who heads the International Rescue Committee , says 200,000 Syrian kids are growing up in Lebanon without an education. George Washington counseled against getting involved in the wars on the European continent for a young nation, this advice was not followed in the Reagan and other administrations without showing the carefulness needed before action is taken. As Hillary Clinton has once pointed out the situation has resembled a pendulum swinging in the other direction under president Obama, and former Defense Secretary, Panetta, has expressed similar views. Hillary Clinton and Leon Panetta, Gates, Gen. Jones, served in the first term of the Obama administration, many of these mistakes were made in the second term by president Obama and his White House advisors Dennis McDonough, Valerie Jarrett who clearly lacked the deep foreign policy experience of Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta (who served under Bill Clinton), and Gates who served under many presidents). ...

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In talking about the systemic risks of the failure of GM, about 3 million jobs depend on the auto industry with 1,187,000 employed by dealerships of which 325,000 are employed in GM dealerships. Another concern is that GM's pension obligations are underfunded by $18 billion at the end of 2008 according to Deutsche Bank. This would be added to the $11 billion deficit at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. were GM to fail.

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Paul de Grauwe, a economist at the London School of Economics points to two problems with the June 28, 2012 EU deal that allows the EU rescue fund to buy Spanish and Italian bonds and provide capital aid directly to Spanish banks. One is the limited funds of the rescue fund, European Financial Stability Facility or by its other name European Stability Mechanism. The EFSF or ESM lacks credibility because it lacks resources, it has only 248 billion euros, and has to first raise money in the bond markets. A better approach would be for the ECB to buy Spanish and Italian bonds aggressively, allowing a smaller spread between these bonds and the German bonds, says Grauewe. Germany is the largest shareholder at the ECB and opposes this move as a form of mutualizing of debt in the EU. Grauwe's recent paper shows that the depressed bond conditions for Spain and Italy are driven largely by a psychology of fear and not hard true economic numbers. Christopher Marks, global head of debt capital markets at BNP Paribas, says it is important to create the confidence to get longer term core investors such as pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies back into this market for Spanish and Italian bonds by reducing volatility and yield. These longer term investors have left the market creating a severe problem. The shorter term investors, who came into this market in the last 1-2 years, are now the loudest voice saying Spain and Italy are likely to fail. These shorter term investors are either selling these bonds short or getting credit default swaps. A big problem coming out of the June 28, 2012 agreement, is that it is short on details. The details of how the rescue fund will operate, its funding, and the conditions for making making direct loans for stakes in banks or buying government bonds are still to be clarified. Germany's Constitutional Court also will rule on how this would be conducted and the Merkel government would continue tough negotiations on the details creating added uncertainty. ...

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  Tennis player Roger Federer's speech at Dartmouth College is useful advice - "its only one point" when you lose it, how to move on to the next one free of thought no negative energy, “When you lose every second point, on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot. You teach yourself to think, ‘OK, I double-faulted. It’s only a point.’ When you’re playing a point, it has to be the most important thing in the world, and it is. But when it’s behind you, it’s behind you. This mindset is really crucial, because it frees you to fully commit to the next point and the next point after that, with intensity, clarity and focus.” And how often does this happen? Every second point almost. Because he says he won at Wimbledon and US Open with only 54% of the points. He lost about half of the points and still made it, and this message is real life, it matters to most of us. When we focus, when we concentrate on the task at hand it is one minute at a time.  Mikaela Shiffrin is the ultimate example of concentration skill going downhill fast between poles requires utmost concentration and she did this for the US in the Olympics after many disappointments in previous Olympics, none of it mattered to her, as she practices and focused. And that takes one to Federer's next point it wasn't effortless. It was repeated practice, it was girt with practice that made a difference. Only today this was evident as Sanju Samson talked about talking with Sachin Tendulkar last night before today's World Cup cricket game Final with New Zealand in which he hit 89 runs and the third time he has done it in the last 2 weeks, in Ahmedabad's Modi Stadium, to become the Player of the Match, watched by nearly 1 billion fans around the world. And Federer's last message is to do this by having some fun, enjoying the experience, learning something new, exploring, and getting to one's potential. ...

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US $1.5 trillion budget request for 2027 fiscal year by the president for military and defense spending is about 4.7% of US GDP forecast of $31.8 trillion in 2026. In 1960 it was 9% following the Korean War. It dropped to 3.1% of GDP by 2000 and stayed around 3.4% till the current effort to modernization of the US military is thought to require about 5% of GDP.  (World Bank charts). The US spent far higher during an earlier period reaching 14% of GDP in 1953 during the Cold War with the Soviet Union. This report shows WSJ Analysis of where the $1.5 trillion request for Defense is going-  $1.1 trillion for War Department and $350 billion for critical munitions. The munitions are in short supply and war in Iran shows that it plays a critical part in defensive systems such as intercepting of missiles as missiles in short supply affect overall capabilities. An additional $200 billion for Iran War. Pay raises for Defense personnel. $66 billion for shipbuilding- 34 ships to put the US back in the lead for shipbuilding it has lost to China, with the help of Japan which is also ramping up the shipbuilding it has lost to China. US and Japan were leading shipbuilders in the  1930's and in the 1960's, then lost it to South Korea and China. About a 12% decrease in other Department's budgets including Health and Human Services, Treasury, Commerce, Interior, Housing and Agriculture.  These cost reductions some of it coming from more efficient functioning and from concepts such as zero based budgeting where every line item in the budget gets reviewed every year for how much is needed for the purpose, is the purpose still valid, and can it be done more efficiently costing less. $660 billion is coming from the savings. The Nation's capital will also get a facelift, a major renovation, after being ignored for years. In the new Budget is $10 billion for the Presidential Capital Stewardship Program within the National Park Service for beautification projects in Washington D.C., which will give the National Capital a much needed new look for millions of visitors from the 51 states in the Union.    ...

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The question what does the Remain Campaign do to tackle Leave's message of "Tell them again," is essential for the second referendum on Brexit to lead to a way out of the endless wrangling. The Times looks at this and comes up with the message - "Tell it to Stop" to address the growing fatigue with endless infighting in the Conservative Party and in Britain of some Leave voters. Many Leave voters now say they know better. The Conservative Party is more divided on the issue than ever and the infighting is only getting worse, turning off some Leave voters.  At the same time The Times suggests hiring some disenchanted Leave supporters to the Remain campaign, and moving it out of Remain supporting London. New connection has to be made with Leave voters concerns about unrestricted immigration into Britain. Voters who are concerned about Britain's place in the world, and any disconnect with EU leaders in France and Germany should also be addressed in a way that sends a positive image. A new face in Germany with AKK, Kramp-Karrenbauer as chancellor, would also help as the migration issue is made less toxic and a new framework of international relations is emphasized that reestablishes Britain's place in the world.  Remain has to have a strong message to counter "Tell them Again" to offer a way out of a mind boggling mess. This would include the ten or more years Britain would have to work its way through in negotiations related to complex issues, to make Brexit work, by which time much of the world will have moved on. ...

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This essay in the WSJ by Louise Aronson, geriatrician, professor of Medicine at UC San Francisco and author of "Elderhood, Redefining Aging, Transforming Medicine, Reimagining Life," and Teva Brender, UC resident in Internal Medicine, says age should not be a factor  in electing leaders, as over the last century life expectancy has grown by 25 to 35 years. People can be healthy into their eighties and modern medicine provides ways to tackle small physical, auditory or visual impairments. In addition these can be handled with strength training, better nutrition and social support, says Aronson. His point is that there has been an increase in "health span" the years we define as being healthy, a compression of morbidity, the disease at the end of life. As a result people can be productive for many years, early retirement is a bad idea economically and for the people themselves when they feel better working. When there is so much wisdom and experience that they can bring to the job, and when that  wisdom and experience is sorely needed by the nation, that guiding light has immense unreplaceable value. President Franklin Roosevelt was at such a time able to steer the nation in the 1930's through the Great Depression and the 1940's through the Second World War, even though he had disabilities. Aronson says the work of elected leaders is fundamentally cognitive and when the basic physical demands can be met it is possible for leaders to work successfully. ...

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A Flash Eurobarometer poll before French elections in 2017 show 56% of Europeans in the EU saying the euro is a good thing, only 36% saying its not, those saying its good at 64% in Germany, and being 57% in Spain, and 53% in France. Walker of the WSJ says the euro has survived the crises of the last few years, with some but not all the steps taken to avoid a repeat of the problems, and public opinion still favoring the eurozone as it looks forward to economic growth in coming years. The middle class is not attracted to risking its savings in euro denominated assets, costs of the turmoil that might be caused by leaving the euro act as a signal for caution, and in Southern Europe countries remember the days before the euro with devaluations and high inflation. With gradual economic recovery it appears that the euro is still the best option there is. Surveys show three fourths of the French oppose leaving the euro, and experts say the euro is not to blame for France's slow economic recovery- more confidence and political stability with economic renewal are seen as the ways to get France going again. This may be why the national elections in France will likely bring a president who is pro-EU. ...

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Guiding the debt ceiling talks in a safe way that does not distract in any way from the stronger economy that is taking shape with large investments in every sector, and which people can see and feel in their own lives, is the goal of president Biden. It would be a win for Biden if overall spending can be kept at the level of 2023 for the next two years. How he does this is by maneouvres that concede somewhat in some areas- one example is by reducing spending on the Internal Revenue Service by $10 billion from $80 billion to $70 billion, and shift the $10 billion saved to education and other similar spending. The idea is to mitigate the effects of small cuts by shifting money from other places in the budget spending plan. These maneouvres are designed to keep the overall investment largely intact and deliver results in 2023 and 2024 in a rebuilding of America that the people can see. 

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Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer meets Russian leader Putin for 90 minutes and tells him that he has "lost the war morally" and that "in war both sides are losers." As shown by the World Bank today the Russian economy could be impacted by somewhere between 11% to 25% loss for its economy, for Ukraine the loss would be 45%. For Belarus, Moldova and former soviet republics of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Krygyz, the loss to their economies about 30% because the region is interconnected with remittances and other trade impacted. These would be devastating economic losses. The entire region in this part of Europe would be suffering losses. Many of the countries would have to turn to the IMF or the World Bank to remain solvent. One of Russian leader Putin's goals was to build a rival economic bloc from former Soviet republics and regions. Instead the invasion has done just the opposite. The economic losses will have impoverished the whole region.   ...

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Germany has performed poorly in banking by copying practices of American banks. Deutsche Bank is a notable example. After years of government scrutiny and investigations into faulty practices, efforts to merge it with other German bank by the government, and losses plus penalties, legal liabilities, the bank's management is now retrenching by cutting down the size of the bank. Tens of thousands of jobs will be cut and the bank returning to a more traditional role of what a bank should be before the faulty practices and mismanagement of the bank resulted in this mess. 

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Questions raised by investors following the layoffs at 3G acquired companies and the practice of investing in Coca Cola sugary drinks- does the carefully cultivated folksy image of Warren Buffett match the investing practices and the special rules that apply to Berkshire?

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MBZ Mohamed Bin Zayed's leadership in UAE, the exit from OPEC and recognition of Israel, that is changing the Middle East. India has close relations with UAE and there are 9 million Indians working in the Gulf region. MBZ and Saudi leader Salman were close until both leaders differed on oil prices. Saudis wanted to keep oil prices high to finance its ambitious projects which contrasted with the UAE interest in increasing production. Saudis have a less diversified economy whereas the UAE has tourism and finance as other business sectors. UAE has capacity to produce 5 million barrels a day, but is only allowed by OPEC to produce 3.5 million barrels a day. US president DJT says UAE's exit from OPEC should lead to lower oil prices. About 250,000 British nationals live in UAE and millions of Indians. Even though the Abu Dhabi and Dubai region of UAE is small it has a large population of 12 million with about 10 million expatriates from India. It is also amore advanced economy with the help of the British and India, and now Israel. Saudi population is about 35 million and Saudis were poised to recognize Israel in 2024-2025. Egypt, the largest Arab nation, has shifted policy to be part of a Middle East that seeks modernization and economic development after decades of war and has close relations with UAE, so does Morocco, another Arab country with close ties to Europe and India.    ...

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A sense that president Putin may have seriously "miscalculated" the scale of Ukrainian resistance and that he may not be getting the right information from subordinates. The conflict does not appear to be in Russia's long term interest, making it weaker with western sanctions.

For EU the shift away from Russian oil supplies shifts to supplies from Qatar and other nations and use of LNG terminals. The US and EU will likely see a more effective shift to renewable energy after the Ukraine war. Increased funding for defense in US and EU and the funding for social goals with a wealth tax planned in the US.

China also sees an impact on its economy and long term growth with sharply reduced access to western technology and research, and restructuring of supply chains to be shorter and focus more on South and Southeast Asia, less on China.

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Us efforts led by Piedmont Lithium in North Carolina to build supplies for the lithium needed in electric vehicle batteries. The effort to get the first US big new lithium mine into operation is part of a broader effort to  build a US supply chain for the ultra light lithium metal that is highly conductive. In fact the modern lithium mining industry started in the rolling hills of the Piedmont region in North Carolina. At that time in the 1950's it was needed for nuclear bombs. Today China mines 10% of world's supplies. Abermarle Corp of the US based in Charlotte extracts lithium from mines in Australia and Chile which have large deposits of lithium. President Biden has signed an executive order calling for a review of supply chains for critical materials, including lithium as the US looks to build its own supply chains and become independent of supplies of metals from China. The lack of such supplies has become a strategic vulnerability for the US.  The growth of the electric vehicle industry and the efforts to reduce climate change emissions means higher demand for lithium. ...

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Increasing regulation on Mexico's telephone monopoly of America Movil, and Telmex, part of Carlos Slim's telephone business in Mexico. Mexico's three main parties have agreed to increase regulation on the monopoly to reduce the high charges paid by Mexico's telecom users. Estimates by OECD show Mexicans paying an extra $13 billion a year from 2005 to 2009 because of the monopoly and high prices. The administration of Pena Nieto made controlling telecom and other monopolies an important part of its program. To get an idea of the extent of the monopolistic control - 70 percent of the cellphone market and 65 percent of fixed lines are controlled by companies run by Slim.  AT&T is now a competitor and is helping bring down high cellphone plan prices.

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Two years after it was launched the Jal Jeevan Mission to bring tap water to every household in India has made significant progress. Only 17% of all rural households had tap water in 2019, today even with covid disruptions 41% of rural households have tap water. 48 million more households have tap water connections added. The goal of Har Ghar Jal (Every home tap water) is now seen as achievable by 2024. Financing in 2021-2022 is increased from 115 billion rupees to 500 billion rupees, quadrupling the financial resources dedicated to providing water to all of India's people. The Swach Bharat Mission Director General, Akshay Rout, shows how this mission for water is moving as as quickly as the open defecation free ODF mission  under SBM. A household in ODF saved Rupees 50,000 a year from cleanliness and medical costs according to UNICEF. A WHO study shows 200,000 diaorrhea deaths prevented. JJM is decentralized, demand driven and community managed. Rout says that setting a deadline and aiming for saturation that leaves on one behind is a good way of tackling critical problems such as hygiene, sanitation and water. He says shoddy implementation or product can be prevented by robust monitoring and supervision systems. By 2019 India had made big achievement in hygiene and clean India campaign with ODF open defecation free achieved under this approach. ...

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The Bank of England under Governor Carney cut interest rates 0.25% from a low of 0.5%, and suggested further cuts were on the way. This follows Brexit and action by the central bank to avoid a recession. The British pound fell about 1.6% to $1.3112 against the dollar, and euro 1.770 against the euro. Government borrowing costs declined, and the 10 year bonds yield dropped to 0.639%. Economic growth in Britian for the second half 2016 will be little or none. The GDP growth forecast for 2017 is now 0.8%, down from 2.3% before the Brexit vote. Bank of England staff say their calculations show Brexit vote has "conservatively" reduced growth by 2.5 percentage points over 3 years even after the rate cuts and stimulus action of the Bank of England, which other estimates show could add 0.5% over 2 years. This brings the Brexit impact to about 3% loss in GDP over 3 years, with these reliable estimates. Months after the Brexit vote the question remains whether Brexit supporters misled British voters, leaving the Bank of England to come up with a way to prevent a recession. After the austerity cuts since 2009 and the prospect of some improvement in the economy, this is a step backwards at a time when some of the working and middle class find themselves left behind. ...

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U.S. president Trump's executive order reversing parts of the Clean Power Plan of president Obama may extend the life of older coal powered plants, but overall it is unlikely to change the shift away from coal for the U.S. utility industry. It will do little to reverse the market forces that are leading to a shift to natural gas for the utility industry with the increasing availability of natural gas. In this WSJ report Cassandra Sweet cites Duke Energy Corp. CEO Lynn Good, who says natural gas for Duke will be the leading fuel followed by coal by 2026, and natural gas now makes up 28% of its mix with coal at 34%. He says a $11 billion ten year investment in natural gas and renewable energy will go through regardless of what the Trump administration does because of the economics- the declining price of renewables, the competitive price of natural gas. Companies are loath to base their long term plans on changes in administration as they see the economics dictated by advances in technology, and the general sense that cleaner energy is here to stay for the long run. Already in the U.S. 34% of total power supplies are from natural gas and 30% from coal for 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Department. This may change slightly as coal is used where it is economical and makes sense without the carbon rules, yet the long term trend is clearly towards natural gas. ...

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Facial recognition cameras will be used by London Met police across London following a court order that allows use of the cameras. This includes train stations, pubs, clubs and shopping centres.

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Jan Hatzius, economist at Goldman Sachs, says the May 2012 jobs report of only 69,000 jobs added, and 49,000 fewer jobs added in March and April after revisions by the Labor Department, should be seen in the light of higher hiring in the winter months because of warm weather. His estimate is that the warm weather added 100,000 extra jobs in the 3 months through February 2012, taking jobs from the March to May 2012 period which averaged 96,000 jobs per month. The underlying job growth if these weather related effects are taken out would be 120,000 to 130,000 jobs added each month in the March through May 2012 period. Macroeconomic Advisors draws the same conclusions, and adds that reductions in energy prices should offset any negative effects of slower job growth by boosting real disposable personal income and supporting real consumer spending.

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GM shares have fallen to $32 by April 2011, having dropped by 13.5%. Ford Motor shares have dropped by 9%. All automobile manufacturers have been affected by rising oil prices. And the government's plans to sell all of its GM shares this summer at a loss create additional uncertainty about the value of GM stock. A sense that the IPO roadshow for GM last summer may have oversold GM and created expectations that may not be fulfilled.

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Italy and Spain get Germany's chancellor Merkel to agree to direct recapitalization of eurozone banks by the European rescue fund instead of the government having to ask for rescue funds as happened for the $125 billion aid request from Spain. The condition is that a European banking regulator with wide powers to regulate eurozone banks has to be setup first. This means Spain will have to provide the initial funds to recapitalize its banks but can reduce the stress this places on its debt by letting the banks get aid directly from the European rescue fund later this year. This is one of the short term measures needed to restore market confidence. Italy pushed hard for the rescue fund to be allowed to buy Italian or Spanish bonds in the private markets to reduce the high yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds, which reached 7% for 10 year Spanish bonds in June 2012. Merkel agreed to this with fewer strings attached. These are the immediate short term measures which were very important for Spain and Italy. Through marathon 14 hour discussions described by Monti as "hard and tense," the Italian and Spanish governments stood firm on these short term measures, and at one point indicated their willingness to let the talks collapse if Germany did not agree. France's president Hollande stood by Italy and Spain in the negotiations. Other long term fixes such as a European authority for country fiscal policy review and a detailed road map were left for future meetings in October 2012....

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The European Union is making good use of the crisis in Ukraine to ramp up its shift to renewable energy. This WSJ report shows charts of where the EU is focusing its efforts from conservation, heat pumps, hydrogen, to wind and solar. Wind and solar show massive increases by 2030. By 2030 the European Union plans to increase wind and solar energy from 20 billion cubic metres to 170 billion cubic metres according to estimates from The European Commission shown in this graph by WSJ.

By the end of 2022 two thirds of Russian natural gas imports to the EU will have been replaced and by 2030 all of such imports will be replaced.