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Serious problems facing Turkey's economy. Turkey takes on too many risks as exports cannot keep up with rising imports leading to a severe current account imbalance. Official statistics show the economic growth at 11% in the first quarter, with the growth coming mainly from the construction, retail and financial sectors, and a result of a surge in demand and rapid credit growth. Imports expanded at 42.6% , and exports at 11.7%. The Turkish manufacturing sector has not strengthening its competitiveness. And increases in manufacturing output come from increased imports- with 85% of imports being commodities and semifinished goods, according to an Istanbul economist who contributed to a recent 350 page strategy report commissioned by the Erdogan government. Fast economic growth comes from rapid growth in credit, and consumption demand, but the underlying manufacturing competitiveness and economic fundamentals show warning signs. The government of prime minister Erdogan- distracted by politics and efforts to change the constitution- appears not to have grasped the urgency of the situation it faces....

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The kind of early effort needed to control the public health crisis of the coronavirus. Steps taken in Washington State on social distancing and action underway in the U.S. so that a proactive approach takes place, acting early and decisively.

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Some of the roots of the Alawite role in Syria go back to the colonial period. Alawites are a Muslim sect living in the coastal mountainous region of Syria in towns such as Tartus, Latakia and in the mountains. The French setup a Alawite state in 1924-1936 before it was merged with the rest of Syria. The Russians have set up a small naval base in Tartus. As the Free Syrian Army reaches Damascus and suburbs the Assad regime is expected to move to Tartus and the coastal region and mountains. This account by NYT reporters from the area reveal the unreal nature of the conflict and the Assad regime. The seaside town of Tartus swells with people fleeing Damascus and other cities, with people from the Assad regime or allied to it, and the real estate market booms. During the same week other accounts in the NYT reported accounts of cluster bombs being used against civilians by the Assad regime. The civil war brought artillery attacks and air raids by the predominantly Alawite Assad military regime on mostly Sunni civilian populations thorough most of 2012. The Russians, the Assad military and public officials, living what may be the last weeks of this civil war as it takes on a sectarian nature, in some kind of bubble. From the international community only France, Turkey, Britain, and Egypt may retain credibility in Syria after the passive role of the U.S. under president Obama to the struggle for freedom in Syria. The U.S. Democratic administration's distaste for engagements overseas may have carried it to the point of standing by as artillery was turned against a civilian population. France and Britain's role in the Libyan people's struggle, and its lower profile assistance to the freedom struggle in Syria compared to the earlier effort under president Sarkozy, still creates a measure of respect. A no fly zone by the U.S. would have prevented the destruction to civilian population that occurred and salvaged U.S. respect, at very little cost relative to the one trillion dollars spent in Iraq and Afghanistan....

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After rapid growth during 2021 home sales in the US are expected to decline by 10% in 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors. The rise of remote work and homebuyers seeking more space had pushed up sales in 2021 with low interest rates. Mortgage rates are now up to 5% in an higher interest rate environment having an impact on home sales. Higher median home prices with the median price of a home up 15% in March compared to the previous year, and 9.5% lower inventories are also having an impact.

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Modi's meeting with Pope Francis planned for half an hour lasts for an hour. Both leaders discussed climate change, inequality, upward mobility, and recovery from the coronavirus. Mr. Modi gave Pope Francis a silver candelabra and a book, The Climate Climb: India's strategy, action, and achievements. The Pope gave Mr. Modi a collection of his main teaching documents and a bronze medallion featuring a tree and the words in Italian "The desert will become a garden."  Modi invited Pope Francis to visit India.

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THe Thirty Years War that was fought between 1618 and 1648 devastated Europe and led to the deaths of 8 million people. TMedieval cities like Magdeburg were wiped out. The book by Wilson shows that it was areligious war between Catholic Hapsburgs and Protestant monarchs but it was also awar in which countries like France and Sweden tried to make territoial gains and in which armies simply used the war as apretext for plunder. The ruinous inflation of the small territories in Europe that made up the Holy Roman Empire as aresult of funding this war led to armies being left without pay and supplies, leading them to resort to plunder and not disbanding themselves. Its useful as it adds perspective to the current wars of religion in South Asia and in the Middle East and the perceived threats to US and Europe. Is it only religion or are there other factors in play.

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Reuters reports Datafolha poll showing Brazilian president Lula of the Party of Workers popularity down to 28% in June. With disapproval ratings growing to 40%.

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Douglas Tompkins co-founded outdoor clothing company North Face and women's dresses company Espirit. He started North Face as a small shop selling high end European climbing and camping equipment in San Francisco. He sold the company in 1969 and later started Espirit. A 1968 trip to Patagonia led to the movie "Mountain of Storms," and a life long commitment to preserving the Patagonia wilderness. A book by Sessions and Devall "Deep Ecology: Living As If Nature Mattered," had a profound influence on Tompkins. For $600,000 Tompkins bought 40,000 acres of land in Patagonia as part of apreservation project Parque Pumalin, which would grow to 700,000 acres of pristine wilderness. Tompkins married Kristine McDivitt, a former CEO of outdoor clothing firm, Patagonia, and the couple dedicated their life to Patagonia through their foundation the Conservation Land Trust. Often misunderstood by skeptical Chileans, and opposed by salmon farming interests, Tompkins set forth his views citing a line from Abraham Lincoln- "Laws change, people die, the land remains." He died kayaking on a lake in Patagonia in 2015. A new generation of Chileans, Argentinians, and others can now appreciate his work in the national parks he helped establish like the work of Teddy Roosevelt in the U.S. a century ago....

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The Third Biennial Update Report at COP26 Glasgow shows where India stands on renewable energy, solar, forest cover enhancement, and improving carbon intensity in its climate change efforts so far.  For instance a 17 times increase in solar in the last 7 years to 45 gigawatts, with target of 450 gigawatts by 2030. In carbon intensity 24% improvement between 2005-2014. Scientist Bhatt presented the report for India's Environment Ministry saying India represented 17% of the world's population and historically 4% of world carbon emissions, today 5%. Improvements of carbon intensity per unit of GDP planned under Mod's plan for 2030 require 45% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030. This suggests the trajectory of China will be avoided where highly polluting parts of industries such as steel and cement were left unregulated and lacking strict supervision leading to rampant pollution in 2000-2021. Mr. Birol, head of the Renewables Energy Agency said on BBC's "Hard Talk" program recently that if you combine all of China's steel and cement factory carbon emissions, that alone would equal the total sum of carbon emissions of the whole European Union today. A quick look at a graph of global carbon emissions trajectories shows three fold increase of China's carbon emissions from about 4 billion tons to 12 billion tons between 2000-2021, the period and the explosion of carbon that is the one activity that singlehandedly created the crisis of climate change today. By comparison US remains at about 6 billion tons of emissions, and EU, US, Britain Japan show flat trajectories. Business, globalization interests, US and European financial interests, and local governments in China that financed this explosion in steel and cement ignored the implications of so much pollution in so short a time through unregulated activities- writing a chapter of failure with most of the world's people left to bear the results of such a failure.  It is this that India plans to correct with a 45% improvement in carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 2030, and nothing could be more important in the government's plan than this. New technologies will be key for this. Modi and India realize how vulnerable India is to floods, drought stricken areas, shortages of water, and climate extremes, and see these plans as critical for healthy growth that benefits all of India's people and regions, It is a long term vision like no other today and sets a new direction for all developing regions of Asia, Latin America and Africa. As India leads the way in new technologies and ambitious programs such as one solar, one world, one grid, these technologies will also break open new paths for the regions of the world that need this most from Brazil to Indonesia.  China too suffers from the impact of so much pollution. Even as early as 2010 reports showed the higher pollution had lowered life expectancy in northern region of China compared to its southern region. Yet the most polluting factories were not removed and only recently is the activity being conducted seriously leading to the shortages of fuel from so much overexpansion in the boom years, and making adjustments done abruptly today more difficult.   ...

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The low pay for teachers in Sweden and Germany. A gross salary of 2500 euros per month is considered standard for teachers in the Stockholm area. Here a teacher points out that it is unfair that teachers are not paid better. With taxes cutting into the pay check even a senior teacher earning 42,000 euros a year or about 4000 euros a month is left with only about 36000 euros or 3000 euros per month to live on.

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Peers discusses the divergent management styles of the two CEO's in a proposed merger of Fox with Time Warner, Jeff Bewkes of TWC and Rupert Murdoch of Fox. Murdoch is known for a management style that involves taking risks, compared to the style of Bewkes that emphasizes fiscal discipline. Because Murdoch's $80 billion offer for Time Warner is 60% stock this raises questions from Time Warner shareholders about the value placed on Fox's performance in future years. This is particularly true after the painful experience in the merger with AOL, which devastated TWC shareholders as AOL's business declined. Another difficulty is that the voting structure for the company uses nonvoting shares that give control of the merged company to the Murdoch family, with TWC shareholders not able to influence the future management- particularly Rupert Murdoch's son James Murdoch, who is co-chief operating officer, as Rupert Murdoch is 83.

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Republicans say they are for Family and Children and values that support marraige. Yet they oppose actions to reduce child poverty, paid maternity leave and women's rights that help protect women in marraiges, oppose action that would increase incomes for poor and middle class families in favor of the highest income groups. He says Biden took action that cut child poverty in half and faced resistance from Republicans. These are questions that don't go away as Democrats could do more for families and children yet Republicans aren't letting their actions match their words.

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"So that Berlin remains our home" posters and signs are all over Berlin, Germany. The escalating housing crisis in Berlin is leading to a referendum on September 26, same day as national elections. This referendum is about taking over developer housing over 3000 units with compensation and is supported by a small majority of voters in Berlin. The referendum  required gathering 175,000 signatures in a few months. The Left Party in the Berlin coalition government of SPD, Greens and Die Linke supports it , Greens are skeptical and SPD is opposed to expropriation. The referendum needs 25% yes votes to expropriation which may not happen. More likely is that housing developers will have to work with the government to come up with solutions to the housing crisis in Berlin.  The referendum is constitutionally compatible with the Basic Law in Germany which says- " Land, natural resources and means of production may, for the purpose of nationalization, be transferred to public ownership or other forms of public enterprise by a law that determines the nature and extent of compensation." Private developers expansion has made housing less affordable for Berlin residents and the target is Deutsche Wohnen, which owns 113,000 housing units in Berlin. This trend shows how different the public opinion is in Berlin after decades in which the housing concerns of local residents were set aside. Clearly Germany needs to invest more in housing infrastructure that is affordable and enhances the opportunities for ordinary workers in Berlin to live in the city. ...

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Marina Force of the WSJ gives this excellent report on Carles Puidgdemont, head of the Catalan party that is holding a referendum for independence from Spain in October 2017. The referendum is to be held on Oct. 1, 2017, and will be held in a tense region divided by pro and anti independence supporters, with the central government of Spain declaring the referendum illegal, and police obstructing voters. This has pushed Spain into a major crisis, as Puigdemont says he will declare independence after the vote, and the possibility that many voters may not have voted at all in this tense atmosphere. Here Marina describes the recent history of Spain that dates back to the period under General Franco's dictatorship when state rights in the Basque region, in Catalan region and in the northern region in Galicia, as well as other regions, were suppressed. Today there is regional autonomy and the languages in the regions such as Catalan are used in the autonomous regions. Prime minister Rajoy is from the Galicia region. His family suffered under Franco's dictatorship as he points out in his book- Mariano Rajoy, En confianza, Mi vida y mi proyecto de cambio para Espana. As a result Catalan leader Arturo Mas and other Spanish leaders including Rajoy from Galicia worked hard to establish autonomy for all the regions in Spain, including use of the local language in Valencia, Catalonia and the Basque region, a variation of Spanish. As in Scotland for most of the period after the end of the Franco dictatorship in the nineties, this focus on regional autonomy was seen as a big step forward. Puigdemont is journalist who was editor in chief of a Catalan newspaper in the 1980's. In 2006 he was elected to the Catalan parliament. In 2013 he was elected mayor of Girona, a city just north of Barcelona. It was in this period that the movement for Catalan independence moved forward setting the stage for the 2014 referendum with 81% voting for independence. In 2016 pro-independence parties won a majority in the Catalan parliament. This set the stage for a confrontation with the central government in Madrid that is now taking place. ...

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Passage through Congress of the $1.9 trillion relief bill is expected with a close vote as some Democrats in the House of Representatives oppose the concessions made on the minimum wage and reducing jobless benefits to $300 instead of $400 a week. Senator Manchin, Democrat of West Virginia asked for these concessions in the Senate, saying he would join the Republicans if these concessions were not made. This shows how close the vote is in the Senate which voted 50 to 49  to pass the Biden bill. Overall the bill does much to bring relief to Americans suffering from the effects on income from the coronavirus, and supports local governments. It funds more vaccination sites and more vaccination teams. Unemployment benefits are extended from March 14 to September 6 at $300 a week. About 85% of the population qualifies for a one time cheque of $ 1400. It also increases rent support for struggling tenants and includes $510 million for the homeless. State and local governments can now rehire1.3 million employees using $350 billion in federal aid. ...

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The gradual fading of China's demographic dividend. This is the reason some analysts believe India's growth rate will surpass China's by 2013 to 2015. The World Bank reflects this in its growth rate estimates for China, which slow from 8.7% in 2009 to 7.7% in 2015, and 6.7% in 2020. One reason for this is that India's age dependency ratio, which reflects how many wage earners support older people, is rising, and China's is declining- with experts expecting that trend to continue till 2040.

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Spain's princess Leonor, who will succeed King Felipe, will complete 3 years of military training like her father at the Zaragoza Military Academy. This will be followed by postgraduate studies. Here she is shown at the annual military parade in Madrid. She is known as Cadet Borbon.

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President Macron takes up a difficult part of his promised changes in the election campaign- an effort to rewrite the rules and consolidate disparate pension plans in France. It comes at a difficult time and requires considerable courage as yellow vest protests against inequality had led to Macron holding townhall meetings in France to hear public opinion, after what appeared as a presidency that had lost touch with ordinary people. Macron has revised his plan to allow a retirement age of 62, yet the plan calls for combining many disparate plans with different rules into a streamlined national plan. Most affected are transport workers, lawyers and other professions that have generous benefits, with early retirement, leading to more strikes. Not taking action means the pension plans would become insolvent in the near future.

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The Times of London says that it has turned out the way the chief medical officer of England, Mr. Chris Witty,  has warned and predicted. That limited freedoms was as good as it could get, but there is hope for the future. With vaccinations starting by January the third wave can be prevented and more reopening can be done by then. The very fact that cases are beginning to fall shows that the lockdowns work where tiered restrictions did not work. 

The same situation can be seen in the U.S. where new lockdowns in midwestern states are beginning to cause a fall in daily cases.

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Exxon added a provision not to add CEO of Pioneer Sheffield to its board, for FTC permission in closing a deal by Exxon to buy Pioneer for $60 billion in stock. This was after the FTC raised questions about the Pioneer CEO on collusion with OPEC to raise oil prices.

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The Indian government is putting a 76% stake in Air India up for sale. Air India has not made a profit since 2007 and a bidder would be taking on $5 billion in debt. What makes it attractive is a market in India growing at 20% for airline passengers. Potential bidders include Indigo, which is interested only in the international business of Air India to add to the 9 destinations overseas it flies to. Vistara, a joint effort of Singapore Airlines and the Tata Group is also a likely bidder. Air India has international slots at London Heathrow and at New York JFK airports that are attractive for bidders.

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After a promising start the Pakistan batting order collapses with 8 wickets lost for 36 runs over 78 balls. Player of the match is bowler Jasprit Bumrah with Rohit Sharma a close second for a fast paced 86 runs. It gives India a 7 wicket win with many overs to spare.

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Kulfi Indian easy to make ice cream treat, no ice cream maker required. Use a loaf pan and pour in the thick milk ingredients and freeze, then cut into small slabs.