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Jens Hansegard interviews IKEA China head, Gillian Drakeford. Drakeford an employee of IKEA since 1988, has run the Chinese operations since 2003. She talks about how IKEA approaches the Chinese market. IKEA's Chinese sales in 2011 fiscal year ending Aug 30, were 4.9 billion RMB, 20% larger than in 2010, with 20% growth seen so far in 2012. Its plans are to open in 2nd tier cities with opening stores in Chongqing, and Wuhan. It has opened stores in Chengdu and Tianjin. The way IKEA opens stores is in partnering with its IKEA Centre Group which owns and manages shopping centres. In Wuxi, Beijing and Wuhan it will open stores with shopping centres of this type. The IKEA customer is 25-35 years in age with relatively higher incomes and education who finds a westernized lifestyle appealing. Space is a constraint, and there is the added factor of more stuff needing to be stored with more products available. A multigenerational family may live on 70-90 square metres. IKEA's challenge is to show how to deal with limited space, keep lowering prices to remain competitive with local competitors who are catching up to new retailing trends of IKEA type stores. Because Chinese middle class means much lower incomes than in the EU, the key is to meet affordability goals, and keep lowering prices for value. IKEA's "Lack" table has come down from 120 yuan to 39 yuan, and since 2000 it has cut prices on average by 60%. IKEA uses China's microblogging site Weibo to reach customers- where it puts up announcements and customers ask for tips, suggestions and put up their own pictures....

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The Sergei Magnitsky bill in the U.S. Congress which would impose visa and other restrictions on Russian officials involved in the imprisonment and death of Sergei Magnitsky.

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Beijin leaders Wen JiBao and Hu Jintao expressdetermination to address quality and safety issues that have plagued Chinese products and come to light in the media recently. They show an awareness of the many challenges facing China and the need for changes to meet these challenges. This includes intra party overhauls to allow for the party to have critics within itself to make the necessary changes said Wen.

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China's EV market is very competitive and price cuts by Tesla have led to falling prices. BYD sold 900,000 electric vehicles in the first 5 months of 2023, Tesla 200,000, and Li Motors 100,000. NIO is struggling and some companies have closed operations. Ford failed in this market and VW is still to make a dent in the market. Most of the top ten companies are local. With the slowing economy, consumers resisting purchases, price drops are needed to keep up sales of EV's.

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Lee Cheuk-yan, chairman of the pro-democracy Labor Party, describes the 17 year old Wong and young people in high schools to a crowd in Hong Kong in this way- these are very young faces, the old men in Hong Kong including many in the elite who dared not to speak up for Hong Kong's cherished traditions and rights out of caution will die, but these young people will carry on. Wong started the group Scholarism as an internet based movement to fight the 2012 "patriotic classes" plan of the Communist Party and Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying. That movement took hold in Hong Kong and the government had to shelve the plan. This time he is fighting for universal suffrage in Hong Kong in 2017 with the right to elect its own leaders without prescreening by the Communist Party. This is in the spirit of the Basic Law, former Hong Kong Governor Chris Patten tells the BBC. Patten helped negotiate the transfer agreement for Hong Kong and handled the transfer in 1997. In August 2014 China changed this intent leading to protest demonstrations. Wong is of Protestant parents who helped stir in him a sense of opposing social injustice. Beyond Hong Kong there is something else at work- a sense that the new leaders in Beijing are choosing the Putin Way that sees these demonstrations as inspired by foreign forces and treating all NGO's as foreign agents. In a larger sense the old leaders are living in a past world of territorial gains and keeping tight grip on power, when the world is now interdependent economically and politically, with change requiring new approaches to problems. The presence of 15 year old high school students and very young generation suggests no such foreign interference, as most of these students are very young....

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Case-Shiller home price index shows 18.5 % drop year over year for December 2009, for single family homes in 20 major metropolitan areas. The Conference Board Index for consumer confidence dropped from 37.4 in January 2009 to 25 in February 2009. Of the 5000 households surveyed more 90% said they expected conditions would be the same or worse in the next 6 months. The Obama $275 billion plan for homeowners does not address the weakest cities in the market which are in places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and much of Florida and Southern California, where prices have fallen 40% or more from their peak. This is because mortgages that are under water are not included, these are mortgages where more is owed on the house than the house is worth, and is ocurring faster in places where price declines are the steepest. One expert Martin Feldstein who is also on the Obama advisory panel has insisted since early 2008 that these homeowners under water have no rational incentive to continue making payments. What this does is to make consumers to postpone purchases like autos and hold back or cut back on all kinds of spending. In this global economy this means places like China's coastal regions which export to the US get hit hard and in turn exporters to china like Germany also get hit hard as what starts in the USA gets passed on theough the global economy from one region to another. Which also means US exports to Asian and other emerging market countries of tech goods and aircraft are in turn hit hard. As Republicans and Democrats follow their ideological leanings they cancel each other out in the debate, as Prof. Potter at Harvard an expert on economic strategy points out in a link, resulting in necessary actions not being taken and no clear direction. ...

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President Goodluck Jonathan as "Mr. Clean" aroused many of the same hopes now aroused by the election of Buhari as president of Nigeria. Under Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria's foreign reserves declined from $50 billion to $33 billion, and there is $1 billion in the sovereign wealth fund. About $20 billion in pilfering of state funds was reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria, but no action was taken by Jonathan. Indians may pride themselves on a better performance, yet prime minister Singh of India, seen as "Mr. Clean," allowed auctioning of telecom licenses in the second term, that had to be cancelled because of corruption. Throughout emerging markets not just in oil producing countries, poverty remains entrenched, because funds that should go into infrastructure and services are misused, which creates a disincentive for foreign investment, further adding to the problems in these countries. India and Nigeria are the two fastest growing countries in the planet, and the unspoken fear is that the demographic dividend with so many young people will be wasted by corrupt and inefficient management of the economy and resources of the two countries. The time lost in the last years of the Singh administration and the four years of the Jonathan administration will never be regained, the hopes of millions of young people are dashed again and again, and the goodwill of Europe and the U.S. eager to participate with the latest technologies in the development of the two countries, as they have done in China, is wasted....

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Adam Bryant's exceptional piece that provides the essence of the Qualcomm Way. Qualcomm CEO Steven Mollenkompf, describes the high tolerance for uncertainty in which the company and its managers operate. It is better, says Mollenkompf, to take risks when throwing the ball than when holding it, a piece of advice from his father using a basketball analogy. This mean approaching the fire as he puts it, when opportunities arise but less is known about the details and a high degree of uncertainty prevails. Here he describes how he hires and how he evaluates employees giving them a lot of room to learn, as basically mistakes can be corrected in his experience. It is a culture that encourages and makes sure the A's and B's have what is needed to influence things, not to spend energy on bringing a C to a B level. For this to happen rewards are given for the right kind of behaviours, and there is no tolerance for negative behaviours (jerks for example)- smart people have to get along with other smart people and that is important to get the company moving in the right direction. In evaluating he looks at contributions made over a longer period, doing the right things so that the organization takes opportunities and succeeds 5 years from today. Qualcomm's ability to grow in a rapidly changing tech environment and seize opportunities as they arise, may be attributed to this style of management....

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A 35% rise against the dollar of the Brazilian real and a rise of 80% of the Brazilian Bovespa index in 2009, following quickly after the global financial crisis, shows the big swings in emerging markets stock and currency values. Brazil is a big exporter of agricultural and mining commodities. Brazilian government is concerned about short term investors who are piling into investments there, but could pull out quickly in another crisis. The government imposed a 2% tax on foreign investments- designed to reduce currency volatility and discourage short term speculative investors. A slowdown in demand for commodities from China or other countries could quickly reverse this rise. And a rise of this proportion in so short a time, coming on the heels of a financial crisis, shows the nature of swings in the global economy that are of increasig concern today. In October 2008 Brazil's currency lost a third of its value compared to August 2008, and the Bovespa index fell by 50%. The central bank had to use its currency reserves to prevent a severe drop in the value of the real. Short term investors were pulling money out of the stock market resulting in dollar outflows, and many Brazilian companies that had bet against the dollar in currency derivative contracts suffered huge losses. The situation was similiar in Mexico. It shows the fragility of economies depending on commodities exports, and the lack of mechanisms to track these derivatives and to restrain speculative short term investors. ...

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The WSJ's Paul Sonne gives this exceptional account of how Russians are coping in the economic crisis of 2015-2016, with the twin shocks of the collapse in the ruble and the collapse in oil prices. He does this by looking at the Kaluga region, a provincial city 110 miles south of Moscow that has benefitted from large foreign investment to meet the needs of 20 million consumers in the Moscow region. The governor of Kaluga since 2000, Anatoly Artamonov, worked hard to attract foreign investment that includes VW, Volvo AG, Continental AG, Lafarge, Samsung Electronics, General Electric, and other companies. He ran a collective in the Brezhnev era, and now is energetic in meeting needs of foreign investors. Karmanov says it is stupidity to not say he is talking to business people in other parts of the world because of the political climate in the country. About 42% of the industrial output in Kaluga comes from the foreign automobile plants, including VW. The automobile and light commercial vehicle production in Feb. 2015 dropped by about 39% compared to Feb. 2014, according to the Association of European Business estimate. Only 40% of autombile production cost from assembly lines is sourced locally, the rest is imported at the new value of the ruble which has fallen about 50%, leading to higher prices and slumping demand. Ordinary Russians are feeling the effects of the crisis with higher prices. Consumer price inflation in Feb. 2015 was at 16.7%, with 23.3% increase in food prices. High interest rates to prop up the ruble meant cutting off access to credit to finance consumer purchases. An 8% drop in real wages in Jan. 2015, according to Capital Economics, added to pressures on consumers. With the political and economic crisis following Russia's Ukraine intervention foreign investment in 2014 declined to $18.6 billion in 2014 compared to $61.5 billion in 2013, and the EBRD bank cut financing with the sanctions....

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This article clearly shows that Russia is turning the corner for full scale use of western technology to tap oil and gas fields in the North. Note the efforts to bring in western expertise include- 1. Efforts to hire Donald Evans, former U.S. Commerce Secretary, to be Chairman of Rosneft. Evans turned down the offer. The hiring of Peter O'Brien a former Morgan Stanley investment banker as chief financial advser.2. With China National Petroleum as a strategic partner. 2. The financial backing and expertise of state run oil companies around the world now give them the ability to contract directly with Schlumberger or Baker Hughes or other oil field technology suppliers. This changes the whole playing field with less need to negotiate with the major oil companies and the ability to do it themselves at their own pace and strategic advantage and execute their own oil policy. Previously negotiating with the oil companies meant giving up some of the ownership of the oil fields to the oil companies in return for the technology. The oil services companies sell the technologies on a fee basis. 3. The pressure to move ahead aggressively with new technology. Estimates from IEA in Paris by Chief Economist Fatih Birol, show that increasing oil production by one and half million barrels a day to level of ten and half million barrels a a day requires Russia to invest $900 billion dollars by 2030 or about 40 billion a year. The only way to generate this kind of investment is to grow its oil development capabilities, keep prices high but stable, invest in the latest technology and bring some of it inhouse....

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The US economy expected to grow 1.5% in 2008 down 0.3% from estimate in October 2007 World Economic Outlook after taking into account a recent update in the model that lowered all forecasts 2005-2008 by half a point. Of this about 0.2 or 0.3% may be the impact of the stimulus package which is included in the estimate. Is this a bit on the high side? Its expectation of growth suggests it does not expect a recession or that it will periodically revise its estimate downward based on new information and the extent of consumption, housing and investment deterioration it sees unfolding in the months ahead. For the European economy it has taken its earlier estimate of 2.1% down to 1.6%. This suggests that it sees the US crisis having an impact in Europe. China's rate of growth will be 10% down 1.4% from 2008 and the Middle East growth about 6% unchanged from 2007, Latin American growth 4.3% down from 5.4% in 2007. This suggests global growth outside USA will remain healthy. However its not clear what would happen if the idea of a recession in the US becomes likely with new information in coming months, and if this is introduced into the model how much would growth in China and the Middle East and India come down in that event. This is the kind of scenario that should also be available from the IMF to know the downside and whether the global growth would sustain till the US recovers from the housing and credit crises in years beyond 2009, given that it would take some time for the excesses there to correct themselves....