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Swiss bank UBS plans to make 10,000 job cuts in the next 3-5 years. Most of the job cuts will come at the investment banking operations which has 16,432 employees. Carsten Kengeter will be made chief of investment banking to concentrate on the downsizing effort. Andrea Orcel, who was brought in by new CEO Sergio Ermotti to be co-head of investment banking will run the remaining businesses of advising on mergers and equity underwriting. Trading businesses, especially fixed income, will be closed down. A third of the employees and 15 lines of business in the investment banking operation will be cut. The strategy is focus on businesses that do not require much capital to run and to build on its competitive advantages. This means focussing on its strong points in wealth management operations and the asset management division, which combined have $2 trillion under management. This move away from capital intensive business is part of an effort by Mr. Ermotti to dispel notions that UBS is not adequately capitalized. UBS suffered losses of $50 billion during the early part of the 2008 financial crisis, followed by the rogue bets by a trader in the London office leading to a loss of $2 billion in 2012. Following the most recent losses Sergio Ermotti was hired to replace Oswald Grubel in 2012. UBS now provides an example for other banks to overhaul their banking operations and downscale the importance and risks of investment banking....

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This report by Martin in the NYT points out that Ohio no longer plays a critical role in U.S. presidential elections. It was critical for a Bush win over Gore, and president Obama carried it by 2 points against Romney in 2012. It is critical for Trump to win. For Hillary Clinton other states are gaining importance as they better reflect the demographic changes in the U.S. and the mix with minorities- states such as Georgia, N. Carolina, Colorado and Florida. Ohio has not seen an influx of Hispanics as other states, and is now more white, more evangelical voters, and reflects a mix that was prevalent earlier. 

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Internet penetration in India is increasing rapidly. India had 71 million internet users in 2009 by one estimate. Current estimates are of 80-100 million internet users. India's internet penetration as percentage of population of 5% is low compared to China which is at 28.9%, Brazil at 39.2%, and Mexico at 28.3%, according to figures from the International Telecommunication Union. Analysts expect the launch of third generation broadband networks will help increase internet use in India. One study done by investment bank Caris & Co. shows internet use growing to 180-200 million users by 2015. Most of the major internet sites are in news, job-search or match-making. Internet retail is just beginning to grow with online purchases of $1.4 billion in 2010 going up to $5 billion in 2012.

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Unemployment in Fort Wayne, Indiana, is 6.8%, and 14,600 workers are looking for a job. Peters and Wessel talk to employers in this midwestern U.S. city and find that employers are looking for people in manufacturing with just the right set of skills, in other cases the benefits and parttime local school system jobs paying $8-$12 per hour with no benefits go unfilled because of the lower wage.

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Following Brexit on January 31, 2020, Britain's government led by Boris Johnson prepares to negotiate new trade deals with the U.S. and other countries. The freedom to negotiate these trade deals was a key part of the plan of Brexit supporters and Mr. Johnson. The Times, Britain's leading newspaper, looks at the prospects of trade deals with each country- the U.S., Australia, New Zealand, Japan. Facing re-election Mr. Trump is seen as favorably inclined to work out a trade deal that he can show during the campaign. Trade discussions have taken place between the UK and Australia, Japan. Mr. Morrison in Australia and Mr. Shinzo Abe want to see strong trading ties and investment with Britain. Japan or Australia could be the first countries that work out a trade deal with Britain as discussions are at an advanced stage.  Britain has a small deficit with Japan in trade. It has a small dollar surplus in trade with the Australia and New Zealand. With the U.S Britain has a large surplus, it exports 121 billion pounds and imports 76 billion pounds. The prospects of trade deals are enhanced by the similarity in outlook of the governments of the U.S., Australia, and Japan, which share views on jobs expansion, economic growth and are centre right in economic philosophy. They also share a strong connection with working class voters under Johnson,Trump and Morrison. Mr. Trump is seen as a strong deal maker so that any deal would involve some concessions from Britain that increase U.S exports, including farm exports. Difficult issues with the U.S. are -pharmaceutical drug imports that could increase Britain's NHS cost for drugs, the digital services tax from Britain on U.S.  companies such as Google and the Trump retaliatory threat to impose tariffs beyond the current 2.5% on car imports of $11 billion from Britain. On agricultural imports Britain's natural foods preference conflicts with imports of genetically modified (GMO) foods from the U.S. Experts say this could lead to a partial or Phase 1 deal that does not need approval from the U.S. Congress, similar to the Phase 1 trade deal with China which sidestepped the thorny issues on trade. This is something both sides can show their support base as a win. ...

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The Socialist party is likely to win the most seats in the Dutch parliament in the Sept 12, 2012 elections. Research firms TNS NIPO and Peil.nl polls show the Socialist Party winning 37 seats up from 15 currently, in a 150 member Dutch parliament. The Liberal party in the ruling coalition is expected to win 30 seats down from 31 currently. The right wing Freedom party that withdrew from the ruling coalition is shown as winning 18 seats down from 24 seats currently. The Socialist party will need to form a coalition with the Labor party which is expected to win 17 seats down from 30 seats currently. Because of the fragmentation of seats between parties, a Socialist-Labor coalition will still need the support of other parties. The current coalition government's austerity drive is not popular with voters leading to a shift. The EC estimate is for a 0.9% decline in GDP in 2012, with 0.7% growth in 2013, but with the global slowdown underway this recovery is in doubt. Offical government estimates show a slowing economy for years, and the need for 20 billion in euros in budget savings for 2013-2017. The Socialist party leader Emile Roemer, wants more time to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, to do this by 2015 instead of the 2013 target set by Mr. Rutte in the current ruling coalition. Roemer also supports a broadening of the ECB's mandate from price stability to stimulating the economy for creating jobs....

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The U.S. government has spent $18 billion on training and job-search programs, with 47 programs offering training for the year ending Sept. 2009, according to the Government Accountability Office. President Obama proposed spending $8 billion more over 3 years to train 2 million people for new jobs. In addition there are state and local programs which get federal funding. Lawrence Katz, a Harvard labor professor says the money is given out on a haphazard basis and does not have a good track record of matching the training to the job openings. Part of the problem is that the government leaves it to state unemployment offices to evaluate labor markets and help trainees decide on professions to prepare for. A better approach is now being take by getting employers to offer on-the-job training. This approach is being adopted by community colleges and the Labor Department to improve matching of skills training to job openings.

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Laurent Berger, head of the French Confederation of Labor, C.F.D.T., is a moderating force in France as president Macron leads an effort to make a revision to France's labor code. With a large parliamentary majority president Macron is expected to push for a shift to a Scandinavian version of "flexible security," that allows companies and the economy to adjust the work force, introduce retraining and create flexibility so that new jobs can be created. His union is now the largest, after surpassing the militant General Confederation of Labor. Issues in labor changes proposed by president Macron are- direct negotiations between management and employees bypassing unions, and a cap to compensation in unfair dismissal cases. Berger's view is that though the interests of labor and management conflict, there has to be dialogue instead of constant confrontation. He is willing to see some jobs lost if business creates new jobs with improvement in the economy. Macron has summoned labor leaders for marathon talks. ...

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A study by the National Employment Law Project shows most of the job creation in the economic recovery to 2014 in the U.S. is replacing the better paying jobs with lower paying jobs in fast food retail and similiar low paying industries.

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This report by Juan Montes in the WSJ shows how much Lopez Obrador has changed since he lost by a small margin in the 2006 Mexico presidential election. His campaign manager, Tatiana Clouthier, says broadening his appeal to women, evangelicals, middle class Mexicans, rich and poor, is needed for Obrador to win in 2018. In elections in 2006 and 2012 Obrador continued to be seen as the candidate only of the working class. An effort is being made to change this image. Obrador, 64 years old from the party of the left, formed his own party in 2010 after leaving the PRD party. He is a former mayor of Mexico City. Five recent polls show Obrador leading by an average of 7.5 points over Ricardo Analya, the PAN candidate for president which now has the support of the PRD. PAN on the right and PRD on the left are other opposition parties. PAN party formed the government under Felipe Calderon before the current PRI president Nieto now tainted by corruption scandals became president in 2012. If he were to win Obrador would change the way Mexico was governed for 5 decades. His first step would be to review the 91 exploration contracts given by the government under the Nieto administration to check for signs of graft. Corruption is a key platform of the parties running against the current government of president Nieto, for both Obrador and the PAN/PRD alliance candidate Anaya. Obrador says he would keep balanced budget deficits and respect the central bank's autonomy. The shift would be from the current export model that Mexico has supported for 35 years, to one based on import substitution policies, higher salaries, and more government spending for education, jobs programs, healthcare, new oil refineries. With the Trump administration's stance on trade and immigration Mexicans are now showing anger and frustration, with 75% of Mexicans in a Reforma poll looking for change. Both the PAN/PRD and its new face in Ricardo Analya, 38 years old, and the Obrador party see corruption and with it in the Mexican context the rule of law as a key issue.  ...

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Yaroslav Trofimov gives his reflections on what the war means for Russia in this Essay in WSJ, and the sense within Russia that the war itself was a mistake. A result of miscalculations and a result that leaves Russia in no way better than it was in 2021 before the conflict. Hard won economic gains achieved by Mr. Putin during the last two decades have in fact been compromised by the conflict. No discussion has even been done on the transition away from fossil fuels that have been accelerated by the conflict. This is particularly relevant for Russia where the question of redundant fossil fuel assets during the rapid transition to renewable energy is a problem that needs to be tackled. The Ukraine diversion in this way affects the Russian economy and acts as a distraction from important economic goals. Global public opinion is also affected in ways that do not look favorable for Russia the longer the war goes on particularly the effect on food insecurity in poor countries, and energy security in Europe for poor households, the senseless destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine and millions of women and children displaced, all creating a sense of overwhelming moral failure. Mr. Modi of India is reported by FR24 to have told Mr. Putin at a meeting on September 15 that "this is no time for war." This is shown on today's pages in Lyrarc. How could it be a time for war when the pandemic has taken lives of over 1 million people in the US, over 2 million in Europe, millions in Asia, Latin America and Africa, and the world is only now coming out of it. The competition is not between countries for major power status but between countries on achieving better lives for its people, stronger economies, and better job, health, infrastructure and services to ordinary people, tackling problems on a common basis such as climate change. In most situations even the advanced countries of North America and Europe are facing the same problems faced by middle income countries such as China,Russia, and developing countries such as India- how to combine market economy with State participation in the economy and government ensuring fairness to all, better distribution of incomes and wealth, ensuring that there is a level playing field for all and opportunities for all. ...

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The problems 900,000 Ukrainian refugees in Germany are facing are shown here in DW.com. 350,000 are registered as looking for work. Ukraine refugees are given 3 year protection status, access to health insurance and the labor market. This report says many of the problems come from the lack of German language skills. There is also a lack of English language skills for people from eastern Ukraine who learned Russian, rather than English. Ifo Institute estimates a third of Ukraine refugees are led to taking jobs below their qualification level because of the lack of these language skills. All this is happening even as Germany is facing a severe shortage of workers with 1.7 million open jobs in 2022.

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Christian Seifert, chief executive of the German Football League acted quickly to get the Bundesliga played by teams in empty soccer stadiums but reaching millions on televsion. Following the example of the Bundesliga which started with games on May 16, the La Liga in Spain starts on June 11, and the Premier League in Britain on June 17. Two rounds of play are done and seven more to go for Bundesliga. Even the sounds of fans were brought back for television. Bayern Munich played Borussia Dortmund in  1-0 game that brought the old games and rivalries back to life for sports fans on television. Seifert says he was just doing his job. It helped that the German health infrastructure was good and handled the coronavirus well, making it possible for sports not to be seen as a potential burden for hospitals. The empty stadiums- all the teams and team fans accepted this. It wasn't that some teams had different views on how to proceed. A $300 million broadcast rights payment was one more incentive to get going and still be safe by keeping the stadiums empty-  and everybody calmly accepting that as a necessary aspect of the modified way for 2020. You could still enjoy the game and be thankful you could - on television. ...

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Comments on X that cause difficulty for DJT chief of staff Susie Wiles to keep a clear narrative and the loss in the Wisconsin SC election are leading to a sense that Elon Musk could be a political liability. DJT focus is on the midterms and keeping the majority in the House, which is also why Elise Stefanik was asked to not accept the job of UN Representative and remain in the US Congress. The immediate focus is on tackling the Tariffs Liberation Day action April 2, 2025 so that followup negotiations with about 50 countries including major ones with Japan, Taiwan, Israel, Britain followed by European Union, South Korea and other nations. This would reassure markets as country after country is developing a new trade relationship that respects US manufacturing goals. China could then be tackled as a special case with America limited to loss of $146 billion in energy and grain sales which would be diverted to Europe's energy needs and farmers could be given a $50-100 billion support package. China would then have to find a way to preserve its $1 trillion surplus without the American market  which would require it to find other markets, and create a domestic market, if it chose not to negotiate and accept American manufacturing goals. ...

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This report in The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, gives insights into the Chinese position in trade war with the U.S.  China has its own internal groups which support China being able to take a leadership role in world affairs. Xi Jinping made giving China a prominent role in the world a feature of his presidency. China  has this internal audience and its own sense that China's resurgence was won with hard work and cooperation, plus dedication of the Chinese people. In the past Japan and South Korea also used state subsidized industries, and subsidies to gain leadership in key business sectors involving high technology. China would see this state subsidies model as its own model of development. From this standpoint the U.S. demands on subsidies as unfair competition could be seen as changing a key part of its economic model.  Asking China to put everything in writing and show tangible proof of enforcement as the U.S. insisted in talks, was too much for the Chinese side. China said trust us to do this, and lift the tariffs based on our verbal assurances. The U.S. having seen decades of no progress on this point, wanted tangible proof before tariffs were lifted. Added to the demands on subsidies were the demands for no more of what the U.S. calls stealing of U.S. technology through forced transfer of technology by U.S. firms as a condition to operate in Chinese markets. With the U.S. lagging in 5G technology and Huawei ahead the issue resonates on the U.S. side. Add to this Mr. Trump's key voter base includes the former Democratic party supporting workers who have shifted to him because of trade agreements and policies of Clinton and Obama that hurt American workers through seemingly endless closure of manufacturing plants from Chinese competition.   ...

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David Gelles of the NYT column Corner Office, talks to the head of Accenture, Julie Sweet, about creating an inclusive workplace and levelling the playing field for women. In this interview Julie Sweet talks openly about her upbringing in the small Orange County, California town of Tustin. Her mother graduated from college when Julie was in her freshman year. After several jobs to help her family she went to law school and joined a New York law firm. She tells Gelles about her experience at this law firm Cravath where there were very few women partners and about breaking down sobbing at a unconscious-bias training session at the firm when asked about her own experience as a woman. After being elected partner she set up the first woman's program leading up to bringing more women upto the point where today women are 25% of the partners. Accidently she takes a call from a recruiter 17 years later about a position as general counsel at Accenture. She accepts the offer and five years later she is made the CEO North America of this consulting company with 469,000 employees. Asked about what tactics are effective in creating a level playing field for women Julie Sweet says it comes from making it a business priority. Making diversity and women a priority with measurable goals. Set goals, have accountable leaders and measure progress, says Sweet. Accenture did a study and found stats that were shocking. 40% of companies have no plan for advancing leadership, and less than 40% look at attrition between men and women. A big disappointment but also a large opportunity here to get results by putting in place some basic things. In 2015 She set Accenture goals for 40% women, and sees 2020 goal at gender parity 50-50%. For a firm with hundreds of thousands of consultants worldwide what are the qualities she sees as important in hiring? Sweet says lots of different interests and curiosity for learning. Next comes being able to do straight talk with clients, to deliver tough messages as companies are constantly telling her they want to hear what they need to hear not what they want to hear. ...

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DJT plans for 25% tariff on all imported cars goes into effect April 2, 2025. It is intended to promote additional investment in the US auto industry, boosting jobs and wages in the US. These countries have now wrapped their behavior around national sentiment even though they very well know how the US has looked out for Europe, and especially China throughout cataclysmic events in the 20th century and the 21st century such as foreign occupation and failures in modernization. By 2015 the US which had given Europe the Marshall Plan and helped Japan rebuild from the ashes of World War II, South Korea rebuild from the devastation of the Korean war, and China rebuild after the failed industrialization experiments of the 1960's and 1970's, was now facing nations that only saw this as a One Way Street, making the US look stupid and showing a degree of irresponsible behaviour on fentanyl, drug and migrant trafficking  by Canada Mexico and China that has few parallels in history. The narrative from the US is that the US allowed Europe, Japan and South Korea, and Mexico as a manufacturing base for these countries 25 years since the 1970's when Japanese Toyota vehicles made inroads into the US market to help these countries recover, a post Marshall Plan benefit given to Europe and Asia. During 1995-2015 a series of weak administrations Clinton-Bush-Obama allowed the US manufacturing base to decline under a falsely premised globalization that served US financial interests but hurt US manufacturing towns and communities across the country.  This means BMW, VW cars imported from Germany, Subaru, Toyota, Nissan, Honda cars from Japan, Hyundai and Kia cars from South Korea, Chinese EV vehicles, and cars made in Mexico for Asian and European makers, all will face this tariff. ...

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As the federal revenues rise to about 18.1% of GDP (close to historical rates after return to growth) and outlays to offset the effects of the 2008 recession diminishing, the deficit is forecast to drop to 3% of GDP in 2014, and 2.6% in 2015, close to the average for the last 40 years. The deficit is estimated to be total $514 billion for fiscal year 2014, declining from $1.4 trillion in 2009. Real GDP growth (adjusting for inflation) of 3% is forecast for 2014-2017. In 2018 and the years to 2024 the deficit will increase because the pace of growth slows, and spending will increase- slower growth of the labor force as the population ages, increasing health care costs, subsidies for health care, and increasing cost to service debt. Outlays other than for health care, Social Security and interest payments on debt for year 2016-2024, are set to be the lowest percentage of GDP since 1940, according to the CBO report in 2014. Debt will increase to 79% of GDP by 2024 from an estimate of 74% for 2014. CBO projects unemployment only slowly decreasing, remaining above 6% till late 2016, with the rate of participation in the labor force- lower now because many people have opted to not look for work discouraged by the job prospects- slow to recover....

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The US needs 100,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth. And 7.2 million jobs have been lost since December 2007. Where will the new jobs come from to replace lost jobs in retail, banking auto and other job losing sectors and when, and will some jobs never come back. Global Insight forecast show 8.1% unemployment in 2013, suggesting that jobs needed for population growth and some jobs from the pool of job losses will not be recovered for some years.

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This commentary in the WSJ says it is essential that the U.S. get back manufacturing of all technological goods back to the U.S. or its allies. The dangers of depending on China or other countries not clearly allied with the U.S. is quite clear especially after the pandemic. The U.S. and European supply chains need to be completely remade, restructured, to avoid dependence on China or countries that are not allies. This is what supply chain renewal is about. Yet initiatives alone with hundreds of billions of dollars price tag re not the answer to the problem. What is needed are specific targeted actions such government direct assistance to key sectors to ensure U.S. technological advantages in worldwide competition. Giving a hole range of incentives and direct financial support to industries making everything from electronic and computer components to high tech parts that go to defense and civilian production.   The U.S educational component in this puzzle is university students in all high tech courses which should be kept for U.S. citizens or from key allied nations at American universities. The manufacturing base would mean securing incentives and aid to manufacturing industries, component by component, part by part, to secure American leadership and distinct advantage.  Job losses have to be reversed and industries relocated back to the U.S. And only in cases where it is advantageous to manufacture overseas to relocate in allied countries India, Japan or South Korea. U.S. labor has to be brought into the picture as a key participant in the national interest and given an important role. R& D efforts have to be developed component by component, technological part by part, and technology by technology, so that a systematic plan can be followed to secure American leadership for the rest of this century, is what experts including this one say is required today. ...

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The U.S. Labor Dept. reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 243,000 in January 2011. Of this number the private sector made 257,000 job additions and the government sector suffered job losses of 14,000. The professional-business-services industry added 70,000 jobs, including an increase in temporary workers. Manufacturing employment went up by 50,000 jobs. The unemployment rate dropped by two tenths of a percentage point to 8.3%. Another measure of unemployment the U-6 rate which includes job seekers and those in part time jobs went down by one percentage point to 15.1%. The U-6 reached a high of 17.1% in Sept. 2010.

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After all the media talk about tariffs inflation- inflation is at 2.4% in May 2025. Tariffs was part of the toolbox of strategies under Lighthizer and Jamieson on getting fair world trade, and not like Congressman Hawley in the 1920's who understood little about the workings of the US economy. This fact the official media such as the WSJ and NYT, Wash Post, BBC need to get it right about the Hawley Tariffs. Hawley was born in rural Oregon in 1864 went to country schools, and was president of Willamette University in Salem, when it's population was 4258. As House Ways and Means Committee chairman he wrote the failed tariffs bill Hoover signed in 1930. DJT's US Trade Representative Lighthizer in 2016 led the successful negotiations with Japan under Reagan, Scott Bessent who leads negotiations on tariffs with China with USTR Jamieson, has a deep understanding and grasp of today's financial markets. Tariffs is one of the tools in the US toolbox to get Japan, China, South Korea to even the playing field for US companies and bring back manufacturing to the US. Without it China would not budge from its unfair advantage and would not negotiate in fairness. This is proven in the way Japan in the 1980s and China today are responding to the US position preparing their economies for not relying on sudden surges in exports putting whole industries and workers in America and Europe out of work and out of jobs. DJT says- "No we are not going to accept that," the EU is catching on and adopting a similar position, China knows that.  The media is irresponsible in presenting tariffs in a negative way, irresponsible to American workers the 10 million put out of work since 2000, and to American families and the Nation.   ...