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Republicans in the U.S. are talking about impeachment more than Democrats in tweets, ads and messages they send out. The Democrats are talking about other issues and this is not what you would expect after Democrats voted together on party lines to pass two articles of impeachment of president Trump. Republicans may even use the issue of impeachment in favor of president Trump as the impeachment process moves to the Senate where Republicans are in a majority. Republicans believe president Trump did nothing wrong and may call Senator Biden and his son Hunter Biden to testify in the Senate about activities in Ukraine, say experts.

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India's GST tax collections - which finance infrastructure -reach the 1.40 lakh crore mark  (about $20 billion) for 3 months in a row in 2022. Increase in tax compliance culture, audit analytics, and actions against tax evaders, helped increase GST revenue collections. Revenues from import of goods and revenues from domestic transactions were 44% higher than the same month in the prior year. The increased economic activity and creating tax compliance culture are good indicators for economic growth in addition to the GDP numbers showing about 8% growth in 2021, the highest in the world surpassing China by a wide margin.  The growth slowed to about 4% increase in GDP in the 1st quarter yet the events of the first quarter such as the war in Ukraine increasing food and oil prices, depressing economic activity, have some other indicators unique to India that are entirely positive and hold promise for a surge in economic growth in this decade to 2030. With the pandemic years 2020-2021 pointing to shift in supply chains of US and Germany away from China towards India and other Asian nations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support of China will only make this shift move faster. At a time when Indian logistics and infrastructure improvements under the PM's Gati Shakti Master Plan will create the right conditions for massive foreign investment in the Indian economy. ...

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See the BBC reports on the DJT meeting with European leaders at the White House August 18, 2025, for Ukraine peace settlement. An astonishing day showing the learning curve of DJT, Zelensky, and the European leaders down to the last detail, a communication that was planned to the details, with DJT and Zelensky both reading from carefully prepared remarks, so that everything would go right, no missed chances. DJT also talks to Putin during a pause inthe meeting to brief him on the talks he had with European leaders. Though the media reports this as not expected it was all part of the plan so that DJT could play the role of someone the Russian president could trust, as well as DJT playing the role of someone the Europeans could trust at the same time- not an easy task but done with a sense of seriousness by DJT knowing that the peace depended on winning trust on both sides.

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The WSJ's Troianovski and Benoit's interview with German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Steinmeier served as foreign minister eight years ago in a prior four year term. Steinmeier says he does not know whether he would have taken such an active role 8 years ago in diplomacy and talks with other countries, given the German public's reluctance to take an active role in world affairs. He and chancellor Merkel are much more active and the chancellor has been vocal about Germany's position in a way that Germans are not accustomed to. This has led to criticism inside Germany about Germany's role. A poll by TNS Infratest Policy Research in spring 2014 shows that only 37% of Germans say they want to see Germany more engaged in international crises. The same poll conducted recently showed the results were still the same, little change in how Germans see their post World War II role. Steinmeier says this is the difficulty he faces, to do what is needed as crises happen and call for a German role, presenting no real alternatives. He has on his desk at the foreign ministry a color lithograph of Social Democratic Chancellor, and Mayor of Berlin during the Cold War, Willy Brandt, with Brandt's words from 1969- "We want to be and to become a nation of good neighbors, internally and outwardly." Steinmeier expresses disappointment with the recurring crises in Ukraine, and says he can only guess Russian intentions, that Russia is looking for international respect and recognition. German business critics point to lower exports to Russia. And most Germans prefer that Germany maintain a peaceful role without foreign engagements. Sanctions that hurt the Russian economy are not seen as part of the German role, but Steinmeier who headed the chancellery during Gerhard Schroeder's term as chancellor from 1998-2005, says in the long term Germany has to support a world with rules. It should be mentioned that Willy Brandt as Mayor of Berlin 1957-1966 during the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations was internationally engaged in a way that goes even beyond Steinmeier's engagement today....

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The issues raised on the effectiveness of peacetime militaries such as China after six decades since the Korean war in the fifties are raised in this report in the WSJ. The Ukraine war and the difficulty of transporting supplies except by rail for the Russian army, the lack of a motivated and trained combat force, are showing the problems of peacetime militaries that can lead to major miscalculations by world powers. 

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Lack of ammunition on the Ukrainian side. Russia losing huge numbers of casualties as a large part of its army is committed to the war. The sense of a war no side can win. Dysfunctional aspects of foreign policies in Europe that will cost $138 billion to $750 billion to fix by rebuilding damage in Ukraine, money that could have been used in the absence of the conflict to support the action against climate change and in development needs after the pandemic devastated economies of many countries. No country has surplus money after the pandemic- NYT reports today that China is struggling to meet the high health costs of the elderly during the pandemic. India has huge needs in transport, logistics, housing, healthcare. Both India and China lack a system of social security like that of the US and EU countries. 

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Figures from Kiel Institute for World Economy show that European Union aid to Ukraine is nearly double that of the US- $187 billion for EU to $98 billion for US aid. The American Enterprise Institute conservative think tank also confirms EU aid is significantly higher. Trump said US was $250 billion to European Union $100 billion- completely the reverse of the facts. This is one aspect of the debate with Harris that was not fact checked to reach the 67 million watching immediately similar to the FBI correction on crime rates by David Muir.   "Look, we’re in for $250 billion or more because they don’t ask Europe, which is a much bigger beneficiary to getting this thing done than we are. They’re in for $150 billion less because Biden and you don’t have the courage to ask Europe like I did with NATO. They paid billions and billions, hundreds of billions of dollars when I said either you pay up or we’re not going to protect you anymore. So that may be one of the reasons they don’t like me as much as they like weak people. But you take a look at what’s happening. We’re in for $250 to $275 billion. They’re into $100 to $150. They should be forced to equalize.”   ...

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Questions raised by Nicholas Kristof of the NYT on Russian hacking during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Kristof says the implausible or far fetched idea of foreign interference in U.S. elections is not as implausible as it may appear.

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A major example of how the Ukraine war has pushed the financial situation to the brink in other parts of the world is Egypt. Egypt has borrowed $20 billion from the IMF and is turning to the IMF again. Egypt imports two thirds of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia and the war has sent prices of wheat soaring with shortages. This wheat is subsidized by the Egyptian government for decades as part of the social contract. In recent years foreign money entered the short term debt market, with the crisis some of these inflows have reversed. The Egyptian currency was devalued recently in response to financial crisis with significant part of earnings going to finance interest on loans. On June 24 the IMF approved a standby arrangement for Egypt. Because Egypt has borrowed $20 billion in 3 loans since 2016, and has now reached the limit allowed by its drawing rights Egypt has sought a cosponsor for additional borrowing. This comes through Saudi Arabia which deposited $5 billion in the Egyptian central bank recently. Saudis, Qatar and UAE have offered to invest in Egypt in a show of solidarity. Of this $10 billion were offered by Saudi public wealth fund and $5 billion by Qatar public wealth fund. In addition UAE plans to invest $2 billion by taking stakes in companies listed on the Egyptian stock exchange. ...

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The supplies of natural gas are making a huge improvement in 2023 over 2022 when the war with Ukraine led to the European Union scrambling to replace Russian supplies with LNG imports. The higher temperatures this past winter in the US and Europe have left ample supplies in storage with the unused natural gas adding to supply. The result prices are now half of what they were last summer bringing relief to people for higher energy prices. Summer prices for natural gas are expected to be about $2.84 per million BTU's.

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This report in the WSJ gives the background and positions taken by Patriarch Krill of the Russian Orthodox Church, and his support for the war in Ukraine as part of Russian lands nationalism. Russian lands nationalism is an idea that comes from the beginnings of the Russian version of Christianity that had its origins in Kviv Ukraine in the 10th century. Patriarch Krill has had a varied role questioning some some state policies and then backing off and supporting the state says WSJ. In 2011 patriarch Krill stood up for protesters critical of manipulation in parliamentary elections that year. Patriarch Krill grew up in the years of Soviet rule and was 24 in 1970 when he began his work in the church. He was rector of a seminary in Leningrad by 1984 and after being critical of the Soviets and war in Afghanistan was sent to Smolensk says this report in WSJ. After he returned he worked with the Soviet state, and after voicing concerns in 2011 about parliamentary elections described as manipulated he has supported the Russian state as it becomes assertive about Russian lands nationalism. To understand the Orthodox Church in Russia one has to know its presence in the post Soviet period. About 63% of Russians belong to the Orthodox Church. It also includes Ukrainians. After Crimean invasion by Russia the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that makes up one third of the Russian Orthodox parishes was recognized as a separate church by Patriarch Bartholomev of Constantinople. Patriarch Bartholomev and Pope Francis the two leaders of the eastern and western churches in Constantinople and Rome have been critical of Patriarch Krill and his support for the war and the idea of Russian lands nationalism. Since the war some parishes in Russia have signed a letter opposing the killing of brothers in Christ and one parish leader was fined $500 for his statements. There is now intense debate among Russians about what this war means in bringing conflict on brotherly peoples about their preferences in 2022 for aligning with Europeans in the western part of Europe. For most of Europe in the 21st century there is a big change, in the countries near the Baltic sea in Northern Europe, in countries in the middle of Europe, in Eastern Europe, the 21st century is seen as a time when states and peoples are making their own choices about freedom and what their preferences are particularly the young people. They no longer understand or conform to ideas of the earlier period or centuries. And this is what has made Ukrainian young people oblivious about what Russian lands nationalism means and its relevance today. Buddhism is today not prevalent in South Korea a democratic state and in China a Communist state in the way it existed for centuries. For it to be relevant people need to begin to believe in it as in Japan or Sri Lanka or Thailand. In the 21st century young people are making different choices and this may well be where the Ukraine war shows that people's choices count particularly in the 21st century, and it has little to do with the west or the US or NATO or even Russia. ...

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A study and analysis in the One Earth journal for climate change action shows oil companies owe about $209 billion annually to pay for damage caused from climate change. The leading companies accounting for about 10% of global emissions are Gazprom and Saudi Aramco. These companies have benefited greatly from the oil price surge. The US and European oil majors who also have profited greatly from the oil price surge come next. Further distorting the effects of wars, financial crises since 2010, the war in Ukraine creates price surges from which oil companies benefit while the vast majority of people in the world are affected by a cost of living crisis made worse by higher energy prices. This is what is important to keep in mind as the US under president Biden prepares to play a leadership role in correcting these unneeded and bad distortions on how it affects the lives of workers and families in the US and Europe, as well as in Asia, Latin America, Africa. ...

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A major shift in foreign investment may be taking place as the 2014 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum takes place in May 2014. Russian policy in Ukraine and tensions with the U.S. and Germany could lead to a shift in investment to other emerging market countries. China's tensions with Japan could lead to a similiar shift of Japanese foreign investment. At the same time India has elected a new government with an absolute majority and an overwhelming mandate from young people to accelerate development. The new government under the BJP party's Modi has a decade of experience attracting foreign investment in western India. Indonesia, Vietnam, Africa and other emerging market countries, could benefit from the shift in investment. Investment could also return to the home countries with lower labor costs in Southern Europe, lower labor/energy/transport costs in North America. For Russia the debate at the St Petersburg Economic Forum was about pursuing one of three policy paths with some riskier than others, or some combination also risky and uncertain- depending on state banks and oil windfall funds, increasing ties with Asian countries, continuing on the current path with lower foreign investment and continued capital outflows. The failure to use the time wisely to diversify the oil based economy which could have been better accomplished in an economy not overly dependent on crony capitalism and centralized economy, both current characteristics, will affect future progress. A key weakness for Russia compared to China is the centralization under one person Putin, more so in the third term. In China the two man team Keqiang and Jinping is part of a larger team chosen by consensus and negotiation and part of a rotational scheme. It has senior leaders who initiated the changes to a market driven economy in the nineties determined to see China on track....

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The German response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is to increase its spending on defense to over 2% of GDP.  An emotional Scholz told an extraordinary session of the German parliament - We have to ask ourselves: "What capacities does Putin's Russia have? And which capacities do we need to counter his threats?" "Putin wants to establish a Russian Empire... the question is... whether we can summon the strength to set boundaries to warmongers like Putin," said Scholz. Scholz said he would immediately invest 100 billion euros or $113 billion in weaponry. Mr. Scholz also announced concrete arms procurements including the decision to buy state-of-the art drones from Israel and F-35 warplanes from the US, which he said would be used to amplify NATO's nuclear deterrent against Russia. 

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This WSJ report takes a look at Bucha, a town 55 kilimetres from Kviv, that saw some of the worst fighting of the war. Civilians were caught in the crossfire and after the initial Russian assault was pushed back, Russia occupied the town with another assault before being pushed out. This report in WSJ says Russian soldiers were initially polite and helped residents. As their casualites grew, and as Ukraine's territorial defense forces took up the fight in Bucha the dividing line between who is defending the town and local residents started to disappear.  This is when the the civilian casualties mounted and when Russian soldiers who had intially even said they did not know why they were here and why there was a war began to see territorial defense forces in all civilians leading to the immense destruction in Bucha.

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WSJ's Alistair MacDonald talks to farmers in the Chernihiv region north of Kviv which was overrun by Russian troops early in the war before withdrawing. Herd farmers brave mines and continue to farm in difficult conditions. Many have borrowed heavily for next years harvest. Many farmers have damaged equipment and craters from bombing in the fields. About $4.3 billion in damage happened in the early days of the war. 

Farming is the occupation of 14% of the population. It brings in 40% of the $68 billion in Ukraine exports each year making it important to get farming back as early as possible. 

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Efforts to bring the two sides together for ceasefire succeed for Black Sea but hit snags along the way. Russia wanting to get sanctions lifted on it's Agricultural Bank to lift grain and fertilizer exports. A separate deal on not attacking energy infrastructure was negotiated.  Fundamentally NATO needed to be reconstituted at the end of the Cold War. Russia's apparent weakness was temporary as it converted to a market economy from the Soviet model. It's GDP is not a correct representation of it's capabilities and need for respect as an advanced European economy. With US-Russian cooperation nothing like Syria and Venezuelan disasters would have happened disrupting the fabric of American and European democratic systems. Russian conditions include ones that were clear from the early days of the war. Ukraine joining NATO threatens Russian security. That this was not to be allowed. And Ukraine to relinquish territory now controlled by Russia in Crimea and in Ukraine's east. DJT in the US has ruled out joining NATO for Ukraine. These territories have been integrated into Russia and it is unlikely that this would change so that continuation of the war after so many lives are lost doesn't make sense. Europeans particular Baltic Republics and Poland are concerned about Russian intentions- this too is not going to change by continuation of the war. It can be addressed by putting in concrete safeguards. ...

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Germany's views on DJT Putin meeting in Alaska- proceeding to next step of peace talks with European efforts to ensure a peace that holds. A failure by Ukrainian leaders to build a consensus for the foreign affairs of their country bordered by language and cultural ties to the east but wanting to be open to the west, its unique position after 1990 similar to how Austria navigated German language ties to Germany after 1945 but was outside NATO and carried on with an independent foreign affairs friendly with all sides. The Bush, Obama and Merkel administrations did not pay attention to this and made serious errors, leading to further wrong turns by Ukrainian leaders and Russian leaders for prolonged wars. This led to destabilization in the Middle East, in Latin America, and in Europe and the US around migrant flows, refugees, and local wars, with Russia, US and Europe local regimes acting as adversaries that had not happened in this way in the 1960's -1990 period. This is the mess that DJT and Merz are now having to untangle with the help of countries that suffered huge losses in the war Russia and Ukraine who now may have realized what went wrong and offer their cooperation to end the war. ...

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Russia faces inflation of 7%, and the central bank policy is to fight inflation by increasing interest rates to 7% in March 2014. The crisis in Ukraine and Russian intervention in the Crimea has worsened the prospects for the economy at a delicate time after Russia's growth rate was slowing rapidly in 2013. Capital flight in 2013 accelerated in the 1st quarter with the Ukraine crisis- with about $60 billion in capital outflows in the 1st quarter 2014. Speaking at an investor conference in Moscow, the former finance minister Alexei Kudrin, who strengthened Russia's finances in Putin's previous term continued to warn about taking risks with the economy and Russia's finances. He had earlier warned about higher defense spending. He now says the sharp economic slowdown expected with a possible contraction of 1.8% in 2014, is the price Russia is paying for an independent foreign policy. The policy is popular in Russia now with Putin's rating at about 80% in April 2014, but Kudrin says this does not reflect the situation if the contraction leads to falling real incomes. As investment spending stalled in the 1st quarter, only consumer spending supports growth for the remainder of the year. Russia's Economics Ministry favors stimulus to support growth, but the central bank is concerned about keeping inflation of 7% in check, and the Finance Ministry favors current policy of building up the rainy day fund from higher oil prices. As a result no stimulus is planned even as the economy slips into a risky contraction phase. For emerging markets in 2014 political problems have exacerbated slowing growth first in Turkey in 2013, and now in Russia in 2014, with the reverse taking place in India and Indonesia where elections and a change in government lead to more optimism....

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Germany is building the new pipeline that connects the Wilhelmshaven LNG Terminal to its natural gas storage tank in record time in the midst of an energy crisis in Europe. The new 26 kilometer pipeline for  the LNG Terminal is being built in a few months when it would have otherwise taken 8 years. See Rani Bhandari, Managing Director of Open Grid Europe talk about the project in this video from DW.com to get a sense of how Germany is moving quickly to address natural gas needs for the winter. Click on Original article to see it.

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The European Union has adapted well to a cutoff of supplies of Russian gas. Alternative sources were quickly pulled together in a matter of months after the invasion and cutoff to tackle the winter of 2022-2023. Conservation was moved into high gear, renewable energy investment expanded, and alternative sources for gas established. Germany sought supplies of LNG from the US and Qatar and built gas terminal at Wilhelmshaven in record time of less than 6 months. Norway increased gas supplies to Europe and now provides one third of Europe's gas needs. German industry changed the way they used gas supplies to reduce usage and make it efficient.

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Much of inflation's rise in the US has been transitory after all, says Greg Ip in the WSJ, yet credit Jay Powell at the Fed for his resolute fight against inflation. Gasoline that was over $5.00 a gallon in June when inflation was at 9.1% following Russia's Ukraine war is now $3.27 according to AAA, and this is an important reason why inflation is at 6.5% in December 2023. Demand for autos after pandemic and lockdowns coupled with supply chain problems caused auto prices and used car prices to rise sharply. This is now reversing with price declines. Ultra low interest rates caused a jump in home prices- this is reversing with Jay Powell and the Fed increasing interest rates sharply.

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Rationing of energy would happen if Russia completely cuts off gas supplies to Europe. Prices would essentially become meaningless, says this report. Supplies coming through Ukraine are limited to 18% with the rest of the 38% Russia supplies to European Union coming through other countries or new pipelines. LNG supplies from the US are increasing but not enough infrastructure has been built for this. This may explain also why Russia is acting now on NATO enlargement that it sees as its concern. Increasing shift to LNG and other supplies would make EU less dependent on Russia. NATO countries are also not spending enough on defense with Germany not yet at 2% and Scholz only going up to 1.5%. Russia has modernized its defense capabilities by comparison, the US mired too much in localized wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Russia was never "a regional power" as Mr. Obama had said with a vague understanding of European history, even while America's resources were wasted in two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq where American interests were not involved. Today the realization is that European Union and American leadership had failed under leadership of Merkel, Macron and in the Bush and Obama years. ...

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The opposition to wind and solar energy comes from environmental groups and local authorites. In Italy 90% of wind turbine projects are opposed by local authorites. Europe under plans made by Germany and other countries seeks to remove the dependence on Russian energy by massive investments in solar and wind energy. This makes overcoming opposition to free up the needed climate change action of major importance. This action also  removes dependence on Russian energy following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.