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This report in the WSJ points to Democrats having won consistently 18 states plus District of Columbia adding upto 242 Electoral College votes in every election since 1992. Democrats need 28 more to cross the needed 270 votes. Republicans consistently having 13 states with 102 electoral College votes. Demographic changes in recent years have shifted to where Hillary Clinton may not need to devote resources to Colorado and Virginia because of a more favorable position there.  Carrying Pennsylvania with these 2 states would put Clinton over the 270 required. Vice Presidential candidate for Clinton, Senator Keane is from Virginia and is popular in the state.  Pennsylvania has a long history favoring Democrats. North Carolina has also seen demographic changes favoring Democrats. The Clinton campaign is focussing ads on these states as well as the swing states of Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as Georgia, Arizona and Utah which are becoming competitive for Democrats. By keeping up the effort in Georgia, Arizona and Utah, Clinton hopes to make Trump divert resources there. Other two swing states are Ohio and Florida, but this WSJ report says Clinton has to win only one of the four swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina to go over 270 and Trump needs all four. Of the 20 media markets Clinton or her super PACs have focussed their ads on 16 are in these 4 states. The Clinton campaign is looking at several alternative routes to 270 Electoral College votes, which gives it more flexibility to plan the campaign.  ...

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The impact on the Republican party in 2012 of reform governors who came in with the 2010 U.S. elections- Christie of New Jersey, Walker of Wisconsin, Brownback of Kansas, Snyder of Michigan, Daniels of Indiana, Jindal of Louisiana and other state governors from Maine to Tennessee.

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Biden issued executive order on June 3, 2024 to close the Border with Mexico and deny asylum. Once border crossings reach 2500 a day the border is closed. Then it is opened only when crossings drop to 1500 a day and after 14 days. Officially permitted including humanitarian parole pathways are limited to 1500 a day. This is being done because the legislation that passed in the US Senate on bipartisan basis negotiated for closing the Border with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Republicans and Senator Lankford (R) was blocked in the Senate by Mike Johnson on instructions of Mr. Trump who sought to use it as an election issue. "Today I’m moving past Republican obstruction and using the executive authorities available to me as president to do what I can on my own to address the border,” said president Biden. The signs “SECURING OUR BORDER” were prominent in the White House East Room. “Frankly, I would have preferred to address this issue through bipartisan legislation,” he added, “but Republicans left me with no choice.” On this page the WSJ looks at the Border on August 5, 2024 and finds the border crossings have dropped to levels in 2020 and to levels seen during the last year of president Trump. The US and Mexico have cut border crossings with Mexico moving migrants back to southern Mexico in a Chutes and Ladders program where migrants head north, and the Mexican gocernment buses them back south, at which point some return to their home countries. At the Guatemala border there is busing to take them to other locations in the south of Mexico. ...

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Biden issued executive order on June 3, 2024 to close the Border with Mexico and deny asylum. Once border crossings reach 2500 a day the border is closed. Then it is opened only when crossings drop to 1500 a day and after 14 days. Officially permitted including humanitarian parole pathways are limited to 1500 a day. This is being done because the legislation that passed in the US Senate on bipartisan basis negotiated for closing the Border with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Republicans and Senator Lankford (R) was blocked in the Senate by Mike Johnson on instructions of Mr. Trump who sought to use it as an election issue. "Today I’m moving past Republican obstruction and using the executive authorities available to me as president to do what I can on my own to address the border,” said president Biden. The signs “SECURING OUR BORDER” were prominent in the White House East Room. “Frankly, I would have preferred to address this issue through bipartisan legislation,” he added, “but Republicans left me with no choice.” On this page the WSJ looks at the Border on August 5, 2024 and finds the border crossings have dropped to levels in 2020 and to levels seen during the last year of president Trump. The US and Mexico have cut border crossings with Mexico moving migrants back to southern Mexico in a Chutes and Ladders program where migrants head north, and the Mexican gocernment buses them back south, at which point some return to their home countries. At the Guatemala border there is busing to take them to other locations in the south of Mexico. ...

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Galston says the Republican establishment's support for Trump before the Republican primary in Iowa is shortsighted and a mistake.

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This NYT analysis of fund raising by the Republican and Democratic parties for the 2020 election campaign shows Republicans hardly raising any money from people with incomes over 250,000 and very little from incomes over $200,000 with most funding coming from the base white working class and lower and upper middle class. For Democrats fund raising is significant at the levels of income over $200,000. Geographically the Democrats get most of their funding from the east and west coast areas.  This reflects the changes in the parties starting in the the 2008 elections when higher income groups in software, finance, and in professions of law and medicine and Silicon Valley tech shifted to Democrats. The Democrats also held onto minority votes. In 2016 this changed with a sharp turn with tech on the west coast and finance professionals on the east coast shifting to the Democrats. The PPP agreement under Obama favored tech over the auto industry, and renewal fossil fuels such as solar were favored over the oil industry and fracking. In 2016 this helped shift the votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania to Republicans. Older manufacturing industries, oil and fracking were supported by Republicans who pushed back against ceding global dominance in manufacturing to China. By 2020 these changes are now entrenched with white working class voters in industries decimated and communities destroyed by foreign imports mainly from China, supporting Republicans. Republicans under Trump have made regaining the manufacturing leadership of the U.S. that was the situation after World War II, a top priority for the U.S.  The minority vote shifted with Hispanics moving towards Republicans to a much larger degree than before. The urban rural divide is similar to Europe where the similar impact of foreign imports mainly from China have destroyed older industries and led to sharp decline in older towns and communities outside major cities. This is the situation facing the U.S. and Britain, France, Italy Spain, and Poland. Germany as a manufacturing country dependent on exports is also affected but to a lesser degree. The unwholesome aspect of this is that the larger urban areas are divorced from the rest of the country  and rural small towns, smaller cities. In some form reintegration has to take place. The vast majority of the working class classified in today's terminology as the less educated lacking a college degree and white are  paradoxically with Republicans, and the wealthy professionals and industries in software, finance with Democrats. Nothing makes this more evident than a quick look at the map of the U.S. with blue on the opposite coasts for Democrats and mostly red in between and in the south. This is unprecedented in American history. A rising tide that lifts all boats in the U.S. and the return of the U.S. to the position it held after World War II could change this in the next decade. ...

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U.S. Senator Ben Sasse suggests an alternative approach of simply repealing the Affordable Care Act called Obamacare and replacing it at a later date. This is endorsed by president Trump. This is the new Republican strategy in July 2017. Forty nine senators voted in favor of this repeal in 2015, when president Obama vetoed this legislation. Two more senators are expected to support repeal according to Ben Sasse.

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Republicans have a narrow majority in the House of Representatives 222 to 212 for Democrats. This means Republicans can only lose 4 members of their party in a vote when all members vote. Kevin McCarthy was not elected Speaker of the House after 4 days of voting as 20 Republicans oppose his nomination.

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The distrust in negotiations between Republicans Boehner, Ryan, Cantor and Democrats Reid, Obama, and Pelosi, during the weeks in October 2013 preceding the reopening of U.S. government after the shutdown. Republicans call attention to the rising deficit from $4.9 trillion in 1993 compared to $16.7 trillion in 2013, triple the increase in the deficit in just one decade compared to the five decades prior to this period. Democrats say sharp spending cuts would hurt economic growth and the unemployed.

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Trump was the only candidate who raised his hand when Bret Baier asked candidates if anyone would not support the eventual Republican nominee in 2016.

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View from Le Monde in France on the visions of Macron, Merz,, and Rubio for rebuilding the transatlantic alliance.  France under Macron sees less hope for the rebuild of the transatlantic friendship. The Germans under Merz and Soder of Bavaria see it differently. As shown in Nina Haase's interveiw with Johann Wadephul Germany's Foreign Minister, he sees Marco Rubio's speech very positively and like Merz wants to rebuild the relationship. It is not fully understood in Europe that Vance was also. partly reflecting his own views and his own tendency to sound and act like DJT. RUbio was once a candidate for the presidency in 2014 whom DJT had to defeat in the primaries. Rubio's recent book on how the elites have failed US and Europe shows a man of his own convictions. He and DJT agree because he brings out the best that is in the Republican party today to look back at its heroes from the past, Teddy Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln with a profound belief in western civilization and America's role in it. When seen in this context it changes everything- all that talk of Vance means little because Vance is a much less experienced politician from the midwestern state of Ohio compared to Rubio with his long years in the Florida legislature and in the Senate in Foreign Affairs. Rubio speaks for the United States so much more so than an inexperienced and very young politician from Ohio who has emerged only in the last 5 years, compared to Rubio's 20 years in public service. ...

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The recent appointment of fast food executive Andrew Puzder as Labor Secretary has caused great concern among union leaders. Puzder supports a $9 minimum wage compared to $15 supported by Democrats. Unions now represent 7% of the labor force, down from a high of 20% during Reagan's time when Reagan appointed a construction company executive as Labor Secretary and cut regulations.  Globalization has thinned the ranks of workers in unions. And the failure of Democratic administrations to stem the shift of factories overseas to China, Mexico and other places, as part of global supply chains focussed on cost, has weakened Democratic support among workers since the period of Bill Clinton. It eroded to the point where Obama won 65% of support among unions and Hillary Clinton won 56% in 2016. Interestingly the Republican Romney gained 33% versus 37% for Trump, showing voters were more inclined to move away from Democrats and only a smaller number willing to support Republicans, but the shift enough to give Republicans a win in 2016 for the presidency. The figures are from a Election Day survey of trade union AFL-CIO, and a larger proportion in midwestern states showed disaffection with policies from Clinton to Obama. In fact Obama spent years promoting another free trade agreement TPP that favored tech more than auto and older industries, just as Bill Clinton had promoted NAFTA, without giving thought to what this was doing to its worker base of support. A similar situation happened with Social Democrats in Germany as a SPD administration moved to the centre and handed Christian Democrats led by Merkel a win in parliamentary elections. As Democrats such as former Labor Secretary Reich, a professor at UC Berkeley who served under Bill Clinton, describe the problems of working class people their is less reflection on the impact of the changes from globalization and how Democrats handled or mishandled it, and more on the politics between the two parties.   ...

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Nikki Haley of South Carolina decides to run for the Republican nomination for president. She joins Trump and Rod de Santis of Florida in the race for the Republican nomination.

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The divisions in the Republican Party as Trump wins in Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, and Cruz wins in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska, in the March 1, 2016 Republican primaries.

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Public opinion in the district of Steve King, a Republican in the House of Representatives favoring defunding of Obamacare healthcare law.

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The BBC Fact check for crime, cost of living, immigration, world affairs is shown next to this transcript of the former president's speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, July 2024. The biggest issue is cost of living, for housing, food and groceries, gas and automobiles new and repairs. "I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy . We will drill, baby, drill. Prices will start to come down." Fact: Gas prices may come down a bit, but it will do little or nothing for the other major components of cost of living - for housing and mortgage rates of 6-7%, for automobile prices and auto repairs, for food and groceries.The problem of job creation will come to the fore because of an inherent contradiction of trying to commit to Republican old platform of tax cuts for the wealthy and efforts to take cost of living action for the now larger lower and middle classes. Without this money that goes to tax cuts for wealthy there is not much to invest in Make at Home, in manufacturing in US the way Biden is doing and plans for next 4 years creating hundreds of thousands of jobs every month and still keeping inflation low at 3% through an investment driven economy. ...

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DJT MAGA factions in general support action in Venezuela and in Western Hemisphere for Monroe Doctrine, this includes J.D. Vance, Steve Bannon and Hispanic supporters from Cuba and Latin America in Florida. They support action to bring drug traffickers to justice in the Western Hemisphere. Essentially supporting the Monroe Doctrine that no colonial European or other foreign powers should interfere in the running of Latin America in the western democratic tradition set by Britain and the United States, and now popular throughout Asia and Latin America and Africa. The government in Venezuela say Canada and Britain is illegitimate and lost the 2024 election by a huge margin 30% or lower to 67% for the opposition under Machado and Gonzalez. And the drug trafficking by Maduro and his associates against the US is an offence that can be tried in US courts, is something Republicans support, and has general support in America. Worse drug trafficking to the European Union constitutes something the Europeans should be worried about because of its growing scale and damage to Europe. ...

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The Maduro government and its predecessors caused the largest refugee crisis in the history of Latin America. The opposition leader won the last election in 2024 and the results were not respected by the Maduro regime. About 8 million people, a third of the country were turned into refugees, and inflation reached over 300% making life difficult in a nation with abundant oil resources. Millions of Venezuelans crossed the Mexican border into the US during the Biden administration, aggravating the migration crisis, and leading to the defeat of the Democrats and a plan under the Republicans to tackle migration. This included the return of Venezuelans in the US and in other parts of Latin America including Peru, Chile, to their home country. Much of Venezuela's infrastructure and public services has "rotted" and the cost of living makes life extremely difficult for all Venezuelans. Venezuela is an example of what happens under utopian socialist schemes, and how military and inept governance can ruin a country blessed with natural resoures.     ...

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A WSJ/NBC News poll taken in Dec. 2015 after the San Bernardino terrorist attack on Donald Trump's proposed total ban on Muslims entering the country, shows 57% of the people surveyed opposed to it, and 25% supporting it. Among Republican primary voters 39% oppose it and 38% support it showing the Republican voters almost evenly divided on the issue, and the proposed ban not affecting Trump's standing with his supporters. About 56% of Republican voters see Trump in a positive light compared to 26% negatively, showing that Trump has strong support in the Republican party. The divergence in views sharpens when considering that half of Republican primary voters have an unfavorable view of Muslims while 79% of Democratic primary voters having a favorable view. In the country as a whole the poll shows about 60% have a favorable view of Muslims.

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Mr. Trump appears strong on the economy issue says this report in the NYT. About 9 million jobs were added in April, May and June after loss of 20 million jobs in March and April in the U.S. The Republican base of white voters is less affected by the loss of jobs- only one of five Republicans had the perception that they would lose their job. There is confidence about the economy in this base as small business and workers see conditions improving.

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This editorial in the Washington Post says Republican Majority leader Boehner in the House should have taken a up or down vote on the Senate bill on immigration. By not doing this and participating in the give and take of politics with the Democrats the Republicans helped create the situation in which an executive order is issued by the president, says the editorial. In its view this unilateral approach is not the right way. WP says if the Republicans want revenge, they can have it, and this is called legislation.