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Apple to ship 25 million iphones made in India to the US for the June quarter 2025, meeting 50% of US demand. This will reduce iphone tariff from 20% for China to 10% for India. Apple will take $900 million in added costs for the tariffs for the June quarter and higher costs for future quarters. Apple made 24.8 billion on $95 billion in sales for the 1st quarter of 2025.  Apple will not get the $20 billion payment it gets from Google for making Google search the default search engine on Safari web browser. This is 25% of Apple profit. A federal judge declared this payment illegal on antitrust grounds. Another federal judge has referred Apple's App policies for criminal contempt investigation. Apple has been late to recognize the dangers of concentrating production in one country. Eight years after the 2016 election won by DJT Apple has not corrected this concentration in one country. Apple has focused on proift alone ignoring the potential for education for it's products such as the iPad. The public perception of Tech companies is that Tech is all about profit alone without regard for the Nation, education, investment in American communities and jobs, and other needs. ...

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China's agriculture based on small farms is undergoing a change as the government pushes automated farming and large farms in the face of limited imports from the U.S. China put tariffs on agricultural imports from the U.S. in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. China's Agriculture Ministry says it will build 254 "strong agricultural industrial towns" as models for the country. President Xi stated on a visit to northeastern province Heilongjiang, that "unilateralism and trade protectionism are rising, forcing us to take the road of self reliance." The yield per hectare in the U.S. for soybeans is about twice that in China. Mechanized farming is limited in China because it would eliminate many jobs in rural areas. As the state has ownership of land and farmers merely use land, farmers are less likely to take risks with large long term investments. It can be risky for farmers to rent their land use rights to others, which would lead to consolidation.  Now a separate "Made in 2025" plan makes upgrading farm machinery and equipment one of the 10 goals. China may lift ban on genetically modified seeds now that ChemChina has acquired Swiss seed company Syngenta. China plans to partner with Asian Development Bank to provide $6 billion of loans, grants and investment to fund a list of development projects in rural areas, to modernize agriculture. WSJ cites a project of consolidation into an 8200 acre farm in Shandong province that  has increased yields 43% by investing in new farm equipment and planting machines, pesticide spraying drones. Scaling up has made this possible.    ...

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This article gets a 2 red flags for what the report tells one about the German retailer Metro AG has done in India to ensure the proper storage and transport of food supplies from its source to the retail shelf. Its quite an effort and remarkably interesting effort by Metro in a new environment. Does Metro have experience like this before in other countries it operates. Its like making a sea change in the way things were done in a developing country to how its done in Europe.

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China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, countries that are part of the G-20 are not part of the G-8. Without the developing countries no real progress can be made on climate change or on emissions control. Climate change was a key focus of this summit in Itlay for the G-8 but with India and China only on the sidelines and acting more as an opposition excluded from the main deliberations the whole climate change agenda had to be shelved. The European countries lose influence in an enlarged summit so the G-8 keeps going along. Sweden holds the rotating Presidency of the EU, so the Swedes are there also. And so is Portugal in away with Manuel Barroso representing the European Commisssion. Except Japan, Asia is not represented, and no country from Africa or Latin America is represented. The European club looks like an anachronism and it is. Merkel and Sarkozy say they know this, but there is too much resistance in Europe to giving up this privilege. When the Guardian reported that Italy may be left out in future meetings of an expanded summit. the Italian press and the Italian prime minister Berlusconi denounced the report. Other countries that lose influence in an expanded arrangement are Canada and Japan. ...

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The US Saudi Strategic Alliance is modeled on the US Japan Treaty and commits US to defend the Saudi kingdom. A draft of the treaty is being negotiated. It requires a two thirds majority in US Congress. A parallel US Saudi Cooperation Agreement is also put in place by Biden and can be done by Executive Order. What motivates this at this time and why after 9/11 when most of the attackers were Saudi, and after relations with Saudi deteriorated under Obama and president Biden's questioning some Saudi actions? The two main reasons are the change Salman of Saudi is bringing to the country modernizing its internal society and and freeing it up from the religion based restrictions of an earlier period, and his focus on investment in the economic development working with India and partners in the region, a relief from the incessant wars from the period of Reagan/Bush as the US makes domestic policy benefits determine foreign policy under Biden. Unknown in most of the world and media a change of demeanor happened at the G-20 meetings in India when prime minister Modi brought Biden and Salman together on economic development plans of a development corridor linking India through Saudi andest Asia to Europe. Biden supported the effort and it showed the Saudis under Salman as leading a development plan along with Modi and other partners for development in the Middle East after frequent wars dissipating the resources of the region and of the US. since Reagan/Bush policy failures and escalation. It is this intervening period of three decades of war that led to China's gains in relation to the US, with twin strikes to the US of China's domination of supply chains, deindustrialization, and loss of manufacturing jobs for working classes in US and Europe. Coupled with this is the opportunity for Biden and Blinken to give Israel an opportunity it never enjoyed for most of its life as a free nation since 1948 to have peace with its Arab neighbors. It is even possible that the prospect of this happening without a settlement for Palestinian statehood that would leave things in Gaza and Palestine at status quo that propelled the sudden attack on Israel. Biden and Blinken want to do the Saudi deal with a new element of getting Palestinian statehood on a basis of respect for dignity of people and of economic independent country which would put to rest decades of Arab neighbor disapproval of Israel. This is both a new vision of West Asia, what we call the Middle East, and an opportunity to focus and also cope with on Asia with the rise of China, India, as the two largest economies with EU and US in the world. ...

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UNICEF say 2.5 million children are not attending school in Syria and another 1 million are in danger of dropping out. And that one third of school buildings are destroyed. This is what is left after decades of civil war. The intervention of local and foreign powers in the Arab world has led to huge breakdowns in society, and massive destruction in countries facing civil war such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya. This is the kind of situation that happened in China's northern and southern provinces in the 1930's, and 1940's. A new pathway for peaceful development outside of ideologies and socialist movements, pan arabist or religious movements need to be found for the region, the Arab world in North Africa to the Middle East. China, Korea, and Vietnam found a way out after civil wars over 1940-1975. India is putting out a map for a course of action with Vikshit Bharat  or Developed India after two centuries of stagnation under the British Empire 1756-1947, and 5 decades of stagnation under the Congress Raj 1947-2000. The spirit of development and desire for modernization, for modern science and technology, good governance and institutions, must come from within.   ...

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The reasons for pessimism are the effect of the global credit decline which makes it harder for Indian business to get access to credit, and the impact of shrinking export markets overseas. The lower inflation and less need for oil subsidies with the fall in the oil price are positive factors. The biggest positive factors though are the fact that exports amount to a much smaller amount of GDP, about 22%, smaller than other Asian exporting countries, as the export markets shrink. The resilience of its democracy and the energy and dynamism of its young people, added to the demographics that show about half the population is below the age of 25, and 40% under the age of 18, so there will be more wage earners and savings to support growth for decades to come. What experts including at the Economist see as the major advantage is the high savings rate which has risen from 28% in 2003-2004 to 35.5% in 2007 according to the Economist statistics. With this the investment rate in India has grown from 25% in the 1990's to 35% in the last five years since 2003 with Indian manufacturing growing at arate of 12% in 2007. And the Indian investment rate has been covered mostly by domestic savings. The two areas that hobble growth are the education levels and the state of the infrastructure which are challenges for organizations inside and outside the government and for business and will remain so for many years. With the global financial crisis the Indian growth rate is expected to fall to somehwere in the range of 5-6% for 2009 by experts. ...

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The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council in India lowered the growth rate for the current fiscal year through March to 7.1%. Growth is expected to improve in the next fiscal year to 7.5%-8.0%. C. Rangarajan, the head of the advisory group says he sees the fiscal deficit exceeding the budgeted target of 4.6% of GDP. One panel member says the fiscal deficit target could be exceeded by as much as 1%. Rangarajan emphasized the need to cut subsidies and raise some indirect taxes. India's central bank governor, Subbarao, also emphasized the need to cut subsidies and reduce the deficit in a recent interview with Wall Street Journal reporters Frangos and Jain, Feb. 14, 2012. Lower foreign investment, and reduced credit after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI, India's central bank) increased rates repeatedly, and lower exports due to the eurozone crisis, have reduced the growth rate. The panel expects inflation of 6.5% in March 2012, which Mr. Rangarajan considers to be high. Deputy Governor of the RBI, K.C. Chakrabarty says 7% growth is reasonable under the conditions, as inflation has to be lowered to below 5% to accelerate growth to 9%. Chakrabarty does not see any quick turnaround in growth rates in the next fiscal year with all the headwinds facing the Indian economy....

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Turkey is reviving its relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Prince Bin Salman will visit Turkey as part of a remake of Turkey Saudi relations. Turkey's economic crisis has revived the relationship as Turkey badly needs aid for its economy. The pressure on emerging markets is increasing with US central bank raising rates reducing inflows of western money into Turkey even further. Prince Salman has already received visits from French and British leaders. He visited Jordan and Egypt this week and will now be in Ankara. In the summer he will visit Greece and Cyprus. Saudis are modernizing their economy changing culture in relationships of men and women, in women's rights and education, and broadening relationships with the world under Salman. There is an astonishing openness to science and technology in a drive to be modern. The old Saudi monarchy and conservative rule with ancient traditions is giving way to what the Saudis in the group under Salman see as the modernization of Europe and America in the 20th century using science and technology as what they would like to see in their own country. There is also a drive to think independently from the dogmatic positions of the past that have turned the Kingdom into an American dependency with no obligation or incentive to modernize its culture and be open to the world outside.  The US fought a war to ostensibly modernize a backward mountainous remote state as Afghanistan, while being perfectly comfortable with the old Saudi monarchies of the past that made little change in the ancient culture and tradition and in women's rights and education. Such were the contradictions in American policy and the failure to think anew. As president Lincoln said "as our case is new we must think anew, and act anew." President Biden will now visit Saudi Arabia to build a new relationship with an independent nation, which along with the UAE is bringing change to the Middle East through infrastructure development and modernization. Salman's modernization comes as the kingdom also faced a need to make a transition out of dependence on fossil fuels. Salman sees trips to Greece and Turkey as opening up to all sides. Saudis have good relations with Israel and Egypt another part of this openness. The US senses this, India has sensed this. India's Modi government  made sending the Oxford vaccines manufactured in India to Saudis a priority during 2021. The Indian example is also changing the way the UAE and Saudis see infrastructure development and modernization in the region. This is also changing the way the region is looking at itself. For decades Egypt lacking the resources to build infrastructure on its own has languished economically. A helping hand from the Saudis is changing Egypt. The entire rail system is being modernized with the latest technology from Siemens. The Saudis have stabilized the Egyptian economy with a $5 billion deposit in the Central Bank of Egypt. On June 21 Egypt and Saudis signed $7.7 billion in investment deals for infrastructure, logistics, port administration, food, industry, medicine, energy and technology. In the investments in Egypt some of the oil money going to Saudis with $100 per barrel oil price is going to an economy in Egypt that can easily absorb and make good use of the investment to modernize.   The influence of Saudi leverage in fossil fuels which drove the US relationship with Saudis since FDR is being replaced with an independent Saudi kingdom making decisions to modernize across the board in all aspects compared to one that favored a few American companies such as Exxon Mobil and ARAMCO or arms makers such as Boeing and Lockheed that helped recycle American money going to pay for Saudi fossil fuels back to America.    ...

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Deep and Bumrah hold off the Aussies in the Third cricket Test at the Gabba in Brisbane, Australia. Australia on Day 5 can only score 150 runs aggressively and hope to bowl India out in a short time -but that is a stretch. So the Test being drawn it leaves India and Aussies at 1-1, heading to the MCG.

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Farmers are switching from paddy rice cultivation to apples in areas an hour from Srinagar in Kashmir. Farmers using traditional varieties of apples are also changing by planting high yielding varieties of apples imported from Europe, and doubling yield, profits. New varieties are also less susceptible to damage from hailstorms. By providing farm machines, tractors, sprayers, juice preservation plants, the government hopes to change the economic future of Kashmir. This sector has potential as a major employment generator, with 71% of India's apple production in Kashmir. In the last 3 years alone the sector has grown 50% from 6000 crore to 9000 crore rupees. Because apples are far more profitable than paddy rice cultivation it also enhances incomes in the state, with the additional benefit of generating many man days of work in orchards- one hectare creating 400 man days. Today 700,000 farming families or 3.3 million people are supported by apple production in Kashmir. ...

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The Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research in India, Suman Bery, says that of all the countries in the G-20, India is least dependent on export led growth. This is why India gains from a reactivation of the American economy. This view was expressed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during President Obama's visit to India. Singh supported the Fed's move to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities.

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The difficulties of acquiring land for industrial development or infrastructure building in India. India's Congress party increasingly supporting farmers who are protesting the acquisition of their land. India's highway commisssioner committed in 2009 to building 12 miles of highways each day, but highway officials say only 5 miles of highways have been built. The Congress party plans to propose legislation that requires farmers to be properly compensated- one proposal is to pay farmers the average recorded price plus 50%, as the recorded price used to compensate farmers does not correctly reflect the entire market price including cash paid unofficially.

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Samuel Palmisano on the internationalization of IBM getting into 50 developing economies in the world that have great potential in the years and decades ahead and positioning IBM early on to take advantage of the growth by helping build infrastructure, education, and becoming a real partner for these countries and building a talent pool in these countries and building human resources, r&d capabilities. Countries like Egypt where IBM is growing fast and which has significant potential in addition to India and China. And building local centres for Brazil, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe. Countries like Bulgaria and Vietnam.

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Modifications proposed for Agnipath recruitment to the Indian armed services include full healthcare benefits and pension benefits for the scheme. The government has presented a fact vs. myth explanation to provide a clear understanding of the intent of the scheme to reflect a younger population and integrated India without the regimental bias towards caste and region present since British times. Job security is always a concern in India. The better technically trained and better financed Agniveer recruit would have more opportunities for education and training after 4 years and become an attractive asset for the private and public sector. A program of this kind was the GI Bill in the US that Franklin Roosevelt signed in 1944 and the Veteran Act of 2008 that continued educational benefits for free college. These programs have resulted in benefit of great value to the US economy and to the military veterans who used these benefits. In India's fast growth period after 2025 the Indian economy would be 50% larger and be easily able to take in these graduates from the armed services with technical training and advanced courses just as the US economy did decades ago. During the days following the pandemic there is a sense of pessimism in some sections and the government can enhance the package with added pension benefits and healthcare and still keep the financial aspects in good shape. ...

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Fears about a property price bubble in China bursting with the central bank not able to control the economy. Increasing fears that China may not be able to control the bubble. Other countries where bubble effects are taking place: Canada where housing prices are accelerating, Brazil with expected GDP growth of 5.8% and "hot money" pouring in, India where inflation has reached 15% and $92 billion of foreign investment in Indian stocks and bonds, Australia with its hot mining sector with trade connections to China, South Korea with growth approaching 5% and high rates of household debt. GDP and property prices increased by 11% in China in the 1st quarter of 2010. Many of these economies have connections with China, including Brazil and Australia with commodities sectors dependent on China.

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 Frustration has grown with the poor early management response from U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, says WSJ.  The president responded at one point with a tweet that "he told me nothing until later." The WSJ looked into Mr. Azar's missteps in a report recently. The president is considering replacing Mr. Azar says WSJ. Ms. Verma the head of Medicaid and Medicare Services is being considered. She has worked closely with vice president Mike Pence throughout this crisis. Mr. Azar served as HHS general counsel and later deputy secretary under president George W. Bush. He then worked as lobbyist for Eli Lilly.  This WSJ report says Mr. Trump called Mr. Azar on his flight from India to Washington, and the next day replaced Mr. Azar as head of the White House coronavirus task force with Mr. Pence. The president says repeatedly that vice president Mike Pence, as head of the White House task force has worked night and day round the clock to guide the effort- including talking to 51 state governors, coordinating the entire effort, and providing the president with reliable advice. In the depths of this crisis never has so much depended on so few- on vice president Pence, a former governor of Indiana, Admiral Polowczyk, Dr. Birx, Dr. Fauci, and the governors of states worst affected by the coronavirus. ...

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Some of the coverage such as this report in the WSJ looks at the empty stands and the loss of ticket sales, the strict rules that limited movement and the restrictions, seeing the Tokyo Olympics as a strange sporting event. Yet for the billions of viewers on television around the world the Olympics brought some relief and sense of exhilaration from the daily news of the delta variant and the pandemic. In many countries such as India, Britain, Canada, the US and Japan, viewers followed their favored athletes for 17 days. The Japanese government was able to pull this off precisely because they took the safe and tested route of empty stands and televised viewing around the world. This was also a needed precaution because of concern within Japan and fears of spread of the Delta variant.  The restrictions produced results- as 400 infections were confirmed for 190,000 people working at the games. Few clusters emerged from infection in the Olympic village as daily testing and rules for social distancing and hygiene were enforced for 11,000 events. Nine out of ten Japanese watched Japan win 58 gold medals including 9 in judo alone. In terms of grit and resilience, and keeping a glimmer of hope and revival during the pandemic, yet not letting its guard down even for a bit, accepting moments of doubt at times, Japan has shown the way when things are tough.    ...

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The Indian government's chief economic advisor, Kaushik Basu, says the opening up of India's retail sector would have benefitted everyone including middle traders. This would happen because the retail sector would go through a vast expansion creating room for more players even though the per unit margin from products would go down. Experts say the infusion of new technologies and investment in India's supply chain and cold storage setup would help reduce food prices and inflation. Basu made the comments at the launching of the New Oxford Companion to Economics in India in Feb 2012. Basu is co-editor and it has contributions from Ratan Tata, Pranab Mukherjee, and Nandan Nilekhani.

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India recorded 100,000 cases in one day on April 5, 2021. About half of these cases are in one state Maharashtra. Most of the cases are in about 6 states. Super spreader events such as cricket matches, weddings and social gatherings, political rallies with elections in states of Tamilnadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Holi festival, are increasing the rate of infection. People have become lax in wearing masks and following the safety protocol after cases dropped to less than 15,000 for the whole country in February. This report says variants also are playing apart. Google Mobility Reports have shown that movements around retail areas dropped to about 80% below regular levels in the middle of the national lockdown in spring of 2020, and have come back up to about 20% below normal levels. When the winter surge did not happen, and the vaccination drive started in January in India people became less vigilant, allowing infections to increase. The vaccination drive is accelerating and open to everyone over 45 years. About 80 million doses have been given and the target is still for 300 million doses by August.  ...

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Data from India in a large study shown in Science magazine show useful findings. Only a small number of people cause the wide spread of the coronavirus. This study covers the two southern states of Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh with total population of 128 million. Contact tracers in the 2 states reached about 3 million contacts for the 435,000 coronavirus cases. Researchers analyzed data from 85000 of these cases where enough data was available with 600,000 contacts. Some interesting findings are- About 5300 children infected 2500 contacts among other school age children showing children in schools can spread the virus. About 5% of the people account for 80% of the infections detected by contact tracing. 71% of the people did not seem to have transferred the virus to someone else. Median hospital stay is only 5 days much less than in the U.S. The number of deaths in India is much smaller than the U.S. less than 100,000. 5.2 million people out of 6.2 million people have recovered.       ...

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How financing for ambitious infrastructure and Atman Nirbhar Bharat (self-reliant economy) development is being financed in India is explained here. The central bank acting as debt manager for the government of India is pushing government securities to trade in lots of 5 crores or more, seven crores being about 1 million dollars. This is now being traded among commercial entities. These are essentially 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month treasury bills, and long term debt instruments for the government that run to maturities of 5 to 40 years. Retail investors are being provided opportunities to participate in a different pathway. Currently institutional investors such as banks, mutual funds, insurance companies are major participants.The government needs 1.2 million crores or $175 billion from the financial markets to fund its ambitious capital expenditures for 2021 financial year. To do this it turns to financing such as government securities. Higher demand for capital leads to higher interest rates. The RBI and the government want to keep interest rates down and one way its to broaden the base of investors for government securities which it is now doing. ...

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Experts in the U.S. say the U.S. made a mistake in not supporting the idea of a new financial institution to meet the urgent needs of development and infrastructure financing of Asia's developing countries. India, Australia, S. Korea, Britain, Germany, France and Italy are joining as founding members in 2015. China has offered leadership in providing resources for the new bank. Jane Perlez says China is looking for the best talent worldwide to help write the charter for the bank and to run it. It is a project pushed forward by China's president Jinping, and was discussed at the 2013 G-20 meeeting in Moscow as a critical part of the agenda. Laurence Brahm, who supported Chinese premier Zhu Rongji in 2001 for entry into the WTO, says it is natural for China to look for ways to use its extra capacity in steel, concrete and pipes to build projects in other parts of Asia, which would mutually benefit China and the region. Paul Haenle of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, says the U.S. lack of support is shortsighted, as the existing U.S. sponsored institutions World Bank and the Asian Development Bank are sorely lacking the resources to deal with the huge infrastructure challenges in Asia. China's Finance Ministry is looking for the best talent worldwide to write the charter and run the bank. Natalie Lichtenstein, a lawyer with 30 years experience working at the World Bank will write the bank's founding charter. ...

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Questions may relate more to how these situations affected the role of Gates and similar individuals in protecting the interests of the US, Europe, India, Latin America and Africa in health organizations such as the World Health Organization. As globalization spread governments in the West surrendered some of the essential role they played in world health organizations to individuals and NGO's, and countries lacking experience needed for such an important task. The mishandling of the pandemic is partly a result of this retreat by western governments from the role that they have played during the nineteenth and twentieth century. In the US letter to the WHO by president Trump the role of Gro Harlem Brundtland of Norway was shown in handling an earlier virus epidemic that originated in Asia so that it would not spread and could be controlled. This is the H1N1 crisis in 2003 cited in Mr. Trump's letter to the World Health Organization. Brundtland took strong action that was missing during this pandemic after the US and western nations surrendered the essential role they have played for centuries based on role in medical science discovery for maintaining public health. Surrendering this role or seeing it erode is one of the biggest mistakes of our time and a mistaken form of globalized behaviour. It is only now being corrected as the realization dawns on major nations such as US, UK, France, Japan, Russia, India and other countries about the essential stability provided by western nations knowledge, experience and resources to this task of maintaining global health. Even a nation like India has to base its role on hundred or more years of work in medical science and commitment to public health that transcends political preferences or national interest to take on and be a worthy participant with the advanced nations that have played so great and beneficial role for the world in public health. What to speak of transient interest of nations in the developing world or countries where national interest or political preferences play a part in public health of the peoples of the world. This responsibility for world's public health can never be delegated to individuals, foundations or any one country, or small countries, or a combination of these, only to the collective experience of the last 300 years in medical science discovery and the role of Europe including Russia, and the US in leading the way.  The Biden administration has the same underlying concerns as the Trump administration about this mishandling of the pandemic and the disasters that followed bringing so much death and suffering This excerpt on Brundtland of Norway is from the letter the US sent to the World Health Organization- "In 2003, in response to the outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in China, Director-General Harlem Brundtland boldly declared the World Health Organization’s first emergency travel advisory in 55 years, recommending against travel to and from the disease epicenter in southern China. She also did not hesitate to criticize China for endangering global health by attempting to cover up the outbreak through its usual playbook of arresting whistleblowers and censoring media. Many lives could have been saved had you followed Dr. Brundtland’s example." ...