LyrArc Article Gist
Dropping wheat and corn prices will reduce the effect on increase in inflation for food prices. A recently signed agreement for UN and Turkey to supervise exports of Ukrainian grain to world markets is showing up in declining futures prices for corn and wheat that will show up in lower food prices. A large harvest for wheat and other foodgrains in Russia and Ukraine is also having an impact. Slower economic growth in China from frequent lockdowns and the ailing property sector, could bring oil prices down from the highs. The shift to renewable energy taking on a huge impetus from recently passed legislation in the US Congress for $369 billion investment and similar moves in Europe with a 15% required reduction under new EU rules could have the same effect of pushing down fossil fuel prices from their highs. This suggests Fed chairman Powell's sense that the economy would improve in the second half is consistent with international developments. The war in Ukraine could also have a possibility of coming to a close in coming months with Russian gains in the east and Ukraine recovering lost land around the Black Sea in the south. Decades of fighting in Ukraine may have obscured the fact that the eastern parts of Ukraine voted in pro Russian governments in the past and the western parts of Ukraine have voted in pro EU governments. The war could end with a settlement around these new boundaries. This would also enhance president Biden's foreign and domestic policy achievements and help the US focus on climate change actions, building new supply chains, rebuilding its manufacturing, its leadership in science and technology, its alliances with EU, and with Japan and India in the Indo-Pacific. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A group of oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia stall progress on climate change goals at the conference in Belem, Brazil. Even deforestation goals are left out. A standoff between European nations and oil producing countries leads to lack of agreement on how to phase out fossil fuels. The US is not present.  

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan is now the fifth nation in the world to land a spacecraft on the moon. India did this recently. The other three nations are the US, Russia and China.

LyrArc Article Gist
The US Senate voted 71-26 to ratify the new START treaty with Russia limiting nuclear weapons on both sides. It is a key part of rebuilding relations with Russia. In one of the last acts of the lame duck Congress, 13 Republicans including Senator Dick Lugar, a senior Republican who has been an influential voice for arms reduction, voted in favor of the treaty.

LyrArc Article Gist
The US is sending the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System to Ukraine to counter Russian artillery and long range rocket attacks in the eastern Donbas region. This is part of a new $700 million 11th military aid package to Ukraine. Germany will provide its IRIS-T system to Ukraine with radar to track Russian artillery, so that entire cities can be protected from Russian artillery attacks. The US has obtained assurances from Mr. Zelensky that the HIMARS US system will only be used on Ukrainian territory and not into Russian territory. Ukraine currently lacks this type of system that reaches for 45 miles for its midrange system, and it is seen as crucial for defending Ukraine, as Ukrainians are being forced back with Russian artillery attacks. Mr. Biden in an article in the New York Times said the US goal was simply to see "a democratic, independent, sovereign Ukraine," not to oust Mr. Putin, or seek a broader conflict with Moscow. Mr. Biden said that this aid will make a diplomatic settlement more likely, as it will strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. House of Representatives votes 420-0 calling for public release of the Mueller report on the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. The probe by Special Counsel Mueller looked into whether anyone in the Trump circle aided Russian meddling in the election. The unanimous vote is a result of the public support for releasing the report. Mostly all Democrats and 80% of Republicans support its public release.

LyrArc Article Gist
This Editorial Board article in WSJ says president BIden should provide additional military aid to counter Russian advances in eastern Ukraine. It says US rocket systems are needed to slow the Russian advance to Severodonetsk.

LyrArc Article Gist
US 28 Point Peace Plan for the Russia- Ukraine war put out on November  20 2025 and the Ukrainian response. Ukraine and EU plans for counter proposals on some of the key points. Zelensky says Ukraine may have to choose between losing a partner and dignity in his message to the Ukrainian nation as the US takes a neutral stand in the war and pushes for a settlement which Ukraine and Europe see as "capitulation."

LyrArc Article Gist
This report by David Sanger of the NYT shows how the Russia sanctions that president Putin hoped to remove are likely to remain in place and somewhat expanded. Russia's economy has seen slow growth of 1% as a result of a fall in foreign investment. This is likely to continue, says Sanger. American investment in privatization will be restricted to not more than $10 million, and the investments in Nord Stream pipeline are affected. Russia needs foreign investment in its economy, and this is affected. Sanger points out that even if president Trump and Secretary of State Tillerson preferred the option of having presidential authority to lift sanctions to improve relations with Russia, this now runs into Congressional opposition. At the Aspen Security Forum in mid July, Dan Coats and Mike Pompeo, senior intelligence officials in the administration, said that there was an effort to influence the U.S. election. The problems started with the opposition movement in Ukraine, leading to the collapse of the government in 2014. Before this Russia- U.S. relations followed the trajectory set early in the Putin first  and second term of improving the economy by forging better relations with the EU and the U.S. This resulted in a stronger economy and more foreign investment. Things deteriorated after the Ukraine issue came into prominence. For the U.S., the EU and Russia, an inability to come to a better understanding and resolve differences on Ukraine has created a downward trajectory, that has not benefited any of the countries involved.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The different views on Ukraine of the Republican party in the US are shown here in this WSJ report. The views range from Rand Paul, Donald Trump to Republican leadership in the Senate under Mitch McConnell. Mr. Trump is also seen as representing an older view of relations with Russia that may no longer exist after the full scale invasion of Ukraine. In this sense Russian tanks invading Ukraine is a watershed event like that of Prague in 1968 and Hungary in 1956. Old views no longer hold. The Cold War began with the Berlin Blockade in 1948- the response of president Harry Truman was the Berlin Airlift supplying the city of Berlin, and some such response is taking shape with the $350 million immediate aid to Ukraine that Biden promised on Feb. 26, within 48 hours of the invasion. The Hungarian revolution in 1956 set the stage for the Cold War after Soviet tanks entered Budapest. The West and the entire free world rallied in 1956 and again in 1968. Some such change is happening now throughout the free world. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In the New York Times Interview January 2026 the US president says about international law- it all depends on what you mean by international law. Presumably saying that if it is ok under international law to send drugs in to the US that kill hundreds of thousands of young people a year as is happening with gangs in Mexico and Venezuela, Colombia, and this is not a problem under international law for a decade now, then there is something wrong. The local population in these countries also suffers from such gangs and crime and this destroys the rule of law in these countries. Not much appears in the BBC, The Guardian, the Times of London, and the NYT, raising this issue in the name of international law and the rule of law. This leaves the president of the US to take actions based on his own sense of what is morally right in the case of Venezuela. On Greenland DJT has this to say. There is a long term lease of bases in Greenland but ownership is critical for it's defense and for protecting the eastern seaboard of the US. This is nothing new as Secretary of State Seward sought to get Greenland along with the Alaska Purchase in 1867. US made offers in the 1900's. And in 1946 Democrat Harry Truman offered $100 million in gold for Greenland. Today as in 1946 in the words of the US Commanders in chief "it is completely useless for Denmark." Denmark is a colonial power from Europe and has done little to develop Greenland. Less than 60,000 people live in the harsh climate of Greenland and mostly Inuits tribes. The US can better develop Greenland and invest in it. “Ownership is very important,” Trump said, adding: “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success. I think that ownership gives you a thing that you can’t do with, you’re talking about a lease or a treaty. Ownership gives you things and elements that you can’t get from just signing a document.” On China and Taiwan DJT says- “This was a real threat … You didn’t have people pouring into China. You didn’t have drugs pouring into China. You didn’t have all of the bad things that we’ve had. You didn’t have the jails of Taiwan opened up and the people pouring into China,”  DJT also said that no criminals were “pouring into Russia”. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US Naval Blockade Day 10- US stock markets up 4.1% for 4 months, oil price $95 a barrel, prices at pump $4.02 down from $3.94 a month back. If all the US seeks out of an agreement is getting nuclear material out of Iran to keep nuclear weapons out of the Middle East based on 5 decades of war in the Middle East- Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and now Iraq/ Lebanon- this is to protect the people of the world from nuclear weapons, including China, India, Brazil, Russia, EU and other nations. This was the goal of Democratic administrations also, only the Republican approach is to err on the side of safe and take zero chances on future nuclear escalation while the Democratic administrations were based on trust, trust which is not a sure thing in the Middle East political and cultural environment. Some of DJT comments were bluster, but the basic position is the same- against nuclear proliferation for a safer planet. In this light the Naval Blockade only seeks not to block Iran's path to a prosperous economy and a bright future for its people. Iran's economy is affected in the same way that India's and China's, Africa's is affected, for upwards of 4 billion people compared to 100 million for Iran. Africa, Pakistan and Bangladesh, Indonesia, among the poorest in the world, poorer by far than Iran. The economic impact on this part of the world is not part of Iranian perceptions. The economic impact on Gulf kingdoms an adversary of Iran is by comparison only a small fraction of the impact on the poorest countries. In this situation US is working to support the poorest segments of the Chinese people ( the part of China in the hinterland that is the one third not urbanized) and the Indian people through its cooperation and direct or indirect support. In this perspective the US economy stands as a steadfast support for US policy of fairness and respect for all nations since 1900- US is not one of the colonial powers such as Britain and France who created some of the artificial states Syria, Iraq, out of the remains of the collapsed Ottoman Empire in the interest of their Empires by 1921, and setup regimes in Iran for its oil, that are the source of today's problems and wars. No Empire of Britain and France promised Iran $28 billion as this Nation does today if Iran ships nuclear material out of Iran for a 100 percent shift to a peaceful Middle East that works for the modernization and industrial development of its economies in the interests of the people. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Ukraine president Poroshenko tells a news conference in Kiev in September 2014 - "the doors of the E.U. are open to us; I am absolutely convinced of this. Events in Kiev and Brussels gave us a firm hope, a belief, that we will soon get the prospect of E.U. membership." Poroshenko plans to repeal a 2010 law barring Ukraine from membership in any military or political alliance, so that it can apply to join NATO. Clearly Mr. Putin's remark to EU president Barroso that Russia could reach Kiev in 2 weeks has stiffened resolve all over Eastern Europe from Lithuania to Poland, and changed perception in Germany and France about Mr. Putin. The German response from Merkel was to have "a consistent presence" in the Baltic Republics, so that the consequences of threats in Eastern Europe would be made clear to Mr. Putin. Poroshenko says he is in constant communication with Putin about settlement of the situation in eastern Ukraine, showing the costs recognized by all sides to prolonging the conflict....

LyrArc Article Gist
Sanae Takaichi press conference with DJT at White House March 19 2026- there is no mention of Japanese help with clearing Straits of Hormuz. US Japan relations after the meeting of Takaichi and DJT at the White House appear to be in good shape. Japan will invest $73 billion in US investment projects in 2026 as part of the $550 billion commitment made at the time of the US Japan trade deal in 2025 under the previous LDP prime minister. Takaichi is coming with strong support in Japan after winning a landslide victory in the general election. Japan's main concern is the belligerent North Korea and China's posture in Asia as it relates to Taiwan. Agreements were reached on critical issues- to develop alternative supplies of critical minerals, to rebuild the shipbuilding industry which US and Japan had given up after dominating it for most of the 20th century. This is critical to ensure open navigation on the oceans of the world. Agreements on high tech and AI, and agreement to purchase Alaskan oil to cut Japan's 90% dependence on volatile Middle East supplies. Japan has managed Middle East supply by keeping over 254 days of inventory but this looks to be very risky as Germany learned from its dependence on Russian oil which went in the wrong direction under Merkel. Japan has released about 18% of its total reserve amount of the 254 days inventory (146 days in national reserves and 101 days in private mandated reserves). It uses 3.14 million barrels a day in 2026 down from 5.8 million barrels a day in 1996, using about half today through conservation and using renewable energy showing the potential for the US and Europe. Germany has cut oil consumption by a third in comparison from 2.9 mbd in 1996 to 2.0 in 2026. And the US remains stagnant with oil demand highest in 2005 at 20.5 mbd and 20 years later at 20.5 mbd mainly because 14mbd or 70% goes to cars and trucks on the road for 347 million people over continental spaces (compared to 297 million in 2005) for a reduction of oil use of 15%. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, is at the center of talks for resolution of the crisis in Europe over Ukraine. Under the arrangement setup under OSCE with Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France as members the security arrangements in Europe are set forth- all nations as member states will respect each others national sovereignty. Russia's approach to settle its concerns about Ukraine joining NATO on its borders was to exclude European Union and deal with this entirely as a US Russia issue. For Europe turning to the OSCE emphasizes Europe's role to solve disputes in its own backyard. This opens up ways to bring all parties to the table for talks. This is because the US position remains firm not conceding on the point of Ukraine choosing its own future and foreign affairs, in effect preserving the right of all of Eastern Europe to choose its own future, something gained after the fall of the Soviet Union. The US approach is also to use an information war of sorts to deter invasion by saying an invasion is imminent. This places the ball right back in the European court in this war of nerves. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Foreign investors make up only 7% of Russia's domestic bond market compared to 30% for similiarly rated Mexico. Russia is rated BBB by Standard & Poor's. Moody's Investors Services rating is one notch higher. The yield on Russia's 10 year government bond is about 7%, compared to 4.35% for Italy and 1.8% for U.S. Treasurys. Russia's deputy finance minister, Alexei Moiseyev, says he hopes changes will raise the foreign holdings to about 33%. Martin Gilman, a former IMF representative to Russia in 1998, and now a professor at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, says rates will go higher because of appreciation in the ruble and large monetary easing in Europe and the U.S. The situation has changed completely from the 1998 Russian default on debt payments of $160 billion. The IMF estimate is for overall debt to be about 11% of GDP by the end of 2014.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ukrainian view on surrendering the 25% of Donbass it does not control for peace deal are shown here in interviews by DW.com in that region near the frontlines. The Kviv Institute of Sociology survey shown here is that 71% of Ukrainians are against giving up the 25% of Donbass. Survey in the Donbass region show 47% opposed, 29% undecided and 24% support giving up tereritory for a peace deal. About 200,000 people mostly pensioners and people who do not want to see their home being looted still live in the Kviv controlled Donbass areas near the frontlines. What about elections? If elections are held and an Ukrainian party including that of Zelensky were to agree to surrendering the Donbass how would the Ukrainian 71% opposed or undecided react. Other attitudes to giving up the rest of Donbass is that there is afeeling even among people who might favor this for a peace deal that Russian forces might continue the war at a later time. Germany's Merz is investing heavily to build up the Bundeswehr and recharge the German economy- the German response is to coordinate with UK, France and Italy and the EU to set up a bloc independent of the US to respond to the peace overtures of the US president with one's of it's own that do not include giving up the Donbass, and to create guarantees that the war ends here, no sporadic starts as in the last 2 decades. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After resisting calls for impeachment inquiry into president Trump's dealings with Russia during his campaign by the Democrat controlled House of Representatives, Speaker Nancy Pelosi decides to launch the inquiry in September 2019. The issue raised in the inquiry relates to a call made by the president and released transcript, and whistleblower's letter that showed president Trump asking the Ukrainian president to look into corruption of a company in which Democrat Joe Biden's son was a board member.

The U.S. provided funds to Ukraine as it struggled to keep Eastern parts of Ukraine from separating with the help of Russia. Mr. Trump states that the U.S. was left with providing most of the cost without European countries contributing enough, a complaint he has made since the beginning of his campaign about all U.S. allies in American engagements overseas such as Korea and Japan and NATO.

LyrArc Article Gist
For the first time foreign ministers of Russia and the US, Lavrov and Blinken meet briefly since the start of the Ukraine war. The meeting takes place at the G20 foreign ministers meeting in India.

LyrArc Article Gist
After a 90 minute meeting with Putin in Hangzhou, China, president Obama wonders aloud whether Putin " is willing to live with constant, low-grade conflict." Richard Haas of the Council of Foreign Relations, says its affirmative, that low grade conflict is Putin's thing. Other experts say Putin's intention is largely to build up his image at home at a time when the Russian economy is facing problems, and to create confusion through cyberattacks. In the case of cyber intrusions into voter rolls of Arizona and Illinois, FBI Director Comey says it  may be intended to just sow seeds of doubt on the whole election process."

LyrArc Article Gist
Thomas Friedman of the NYT sees a climate change as an area in which Trump has ignored the information of eminent scientists. He sees a weakness of the Trump administration in Trump's putting no importance to briefings by experts from climate change to national security briefings. Friedman sees Russia and hacking as a major issue facing the new Trump administration, including the new hearings in Congress from leading Republicans on the cyberattacks.

LyrArc Article Gist
Khalid al-Falih, chairman of Saudi Aramco, says at the World Economic Forum in Davos, on Jan. 26, 2016- "If prices continue to be low, we will be able to withstand it for a long, long time." With $630 billion in foreign currency reserves the Saudis are following a long term policy of full production. Gasoline subsidies are being reduced, IPO of Saudi Aramco being discussed to raise additional capital, and other steps being taken to plan for long term oil prices. Flexibility for a change in policy is diminished with the addition of Iranian oil production to supplies following the lifting of sanctions. The events in 2015-2016 of Russian bombing campaign in Syria, and the cutoff of diplomatic relations with Iran, have worsened the standoff with Iran and Russia in the Middle East conflict. As a result it appears that the Saudis are settling down for a long term policy of full production which would keep oil prices low for the long term. India, Japan, China, the U.S. and the European Union, Turkey and other countries benefit from low oil prices when their economies need a boost in 2016-2017....

LyrArc Article Gist
Hubbard and Erdbrink report on U.S. president Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia to begin a new chapter in relations with the Gulf nations and the Saudis. Under president Obama the U.S. distanced itself from the Saudis and the Gulf nations, preferring to pursue a policy of closer relations with Iran and signing the Iran nuclear deal. This included a policy of staying out of Syria to the point of turning down a decision to deploy U.S. airpower to maintain no-fly zones to protect refugees. Syrian government forces fighting rebels were supported by Iran. The new policy is dictated by the new conditions in the Middle East. The U.S. has sought since the presidency of Reagan to balance the power relations in the region. With the nuclear deal signed and Iran respecting the deal according to independent reports, the U.S. allied with Iran in the battle against Islamic State in Iraq,  a shift was needed to balance the support provided to Iran by Russia which worsened the refugee crisis in Syria. The Republican party and Mr. Trump were critical of the Obama Iran policy during the nuclear deal negotiations. The safety of Israel is also a factor as non-state actors were supported by Iran threatening Israeli security. For these reasons the shift is an effort to rebalance the relations in the region. The arms deal in its size and president Trump's statement that Iran had "fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror," can be seen as this rebalancing. A business aspect of the large arms deal is that it will promote job growth in the defense industry in the U.S.. Other countries including Germany have seen growth in their defense industry. This is not the best way forward for the Middle East, yet it is a way the U.S. and nations in the region are adjusting to realities- the collapse of the Arab Spring from within and without the help from outside, the sectarian conflict arising from the Shiite pushback from Iran following the Baathist and Sunni control of Iraq which collapsed with the U.S.invasion, where the majority of people are Shiite yet with a strong Sunni presence. Elections brought Shiites in power, leading to a Sunni response in the form of Islami State caliphate move into Mosul, Iraq's second largest city after Baghdad. A decade of conflict and the efforts by the Bush administration ended in failure and sectarian conflict, resulting in the U.S. policy of rebalancing in favor of Iran to negotiate the nuclear deal. In this sense the arms deal does not solve anything. A similar rebalancing under Reagan by arming one side, followed by arming the other, led to involvement with ground forces under president Bush. It only leaves the region poor after years of sanctions against Iran to the point where a NYT reporter was not sure whether it was safe to fly from Tehran to Mashad with Iran Air because of the lack of spare parts for the airline. War torn, with millions of refugees in Syria and Iraq, the region remains broken in many ways, waiting for a sensible non sectarian view to prevail in the interest of the people in the region. The election of Rouhani in Iran by 57% of the vote is only a sign that young people in the region given a chance would opt for a different course in future. The rest of Asia has moved forward and shows a path that can be followed. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Defense Department is about to move forward with a plan to store battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and heavy weapons, for about 5000 American troops in Baltic countries and Eastern Europe. The move is in response to calls from Baltic republics to prepare a rapid reaction capability in response to any Russian action.