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Zhang Juwei of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that the overall fertility rate is at most 1.6. A recent report by CASS says the figure of 1.8 used by the government is an overestimation. CASS says its data shows the fertility rate for migrant workers is about 1.14, much lower than people think. The policy for one-child only was introduced 30 years ago, when the fertility rate was close to 3, having fallen to that level from close to 6 in 1960. Does the policy serve China well in the future as China's population ages and there are more older people for younger workers to support, is a question raised by critics in the Chinese media. China's government family planning officials say it applies to 40% of the people, considering the two child policy operating in some areas of the country.

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The navy of the U.S., Japan, India and Australia to join the annual Malabar exercize in the Indian Ocean. The British Navy played a critical part in the Mediterranean, the Cape around Africa, and the Indian Ocean, during the period 1750-1950, and the Indian Navy now inherits this role from the British period.

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Mike Atherton on India vs England Test cricket series in June-July 2025. It is seen as a Test series for the ages, India vs England 2025. Looking back at the series Australia vs West Indies in 1960 when the Test ended in a tie when Gary Sobers and Richie Benaud were players for their teams, one finds this one drawing the same level of excitement and suspense. The whole series of 5 tests was filled with suspense, Pant's theatrics, Gill's brilliant batting matching world records set by Don Bradman and Jadeja's all rounder performance with bat and ball matching that of Gary Sobers. Bowling was not far behind with Bumrah, Siraj and Stokes.  The England team and the Indian team were evenly matched with Ben Stokes,Root and Woakes, Atkinson, English players giving it their all. Woakes was injured dislocating his shoulder in an effort to save a boundary, such was the fielding effort on the Oval grounds in the final test. Woakes turned up to bat in much pain, but did not face any balls thanks to Atkinson. Stokes bowled overs almost to exhaustion to miss the last Test.  ...

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Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...

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The situation in China with recent rural migrants shown to be different from the migrants from rural areas in the earlier phase of development after the opening in 1990 under Deng. The overnight eviction of recent rural area migrants from Beijing, referred in official documents as "low-end population" leaves this segment of the population (about 90 million) facing uncertain future. The previous generation of rural migrants were seen as more stable as they could farm and had connections to the villages and rural areas. The new migrants lack connection to villages and have little experience working on farms. They were born since 1980, and are seen in party documents as a new generation of migrants. The earlier generation had seen the upheavals of the Cultural Revolution and memories of poverty, and were focused on basic needs.  The new generation of migrants is more dissatisfied, has more education but of lower quality, some were left behind in rural areas by parents who migrated to cities, and men in this group face a lack of women partners because of the one child system and decline in female births. Two thirds of these migrants are unmarried and the men lack the income to pay what is called a reverse dowry of having an apartment and a car to attract women for marraige. The governing party sees this new group of $90 million which has no access to subisidized education and health care under the resident "hukou" system as a source of instability in urban areas of China. ...

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William Galston in the WSJ says outright for the first time in the WSJ that the years from the last term of Clinton, through the Bush, and Obama administrations were an outright failure for the American people. He documents the losses- 5.7 million job losses in 2000-2010 as Clinton opened China's entry into the World Trade Organization without any precautions taken to prevent abuse of world trading rules after the experience with Japan. Worse no help to the displaced workers which fed into the resentment of workers. Sex scandals weakened the presidency and acted as the major distraction during the last years of Bill Clinton. Over the administrations of Bush and Obama almost the entire US manufacturing base was dismantled and shipped to China. Pharmaceutical companies were allowed to charge recklessly when Bush disallowed Medicare to negotiate prices for pharmacueticals placing additional burdens on the American people. Bush started long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that cost the US dearly in lives and resources wasted with no vital US interests at stake as in Europe. This distracted attention from problems simmering at home. Obama continued these wars preferring to focus on reelection. The migration crisis, the neglect of infrastructure worsened during this period. The Bush deregulation of banks led to the 2009 world banking crisis that led to large layoffs worsening a bad situation from outshoring and creating a class of unemployed, and shrinking household wealth and savings. The Biden administration, the first Trump administration and now the second have started the process of revival of the US. And yet Biden, DJT are relative outsiders who came to the presidency and were not favored in the established order of the 1990-2016 period. One can say about Blair, Cameron, Boris Johnson in Britain, about Clinton, Bush, Obama in the US, and Schroeder, Merkel in Germany that the leadership was mediocre and failed the people of Europe and the people of America.     ...

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As Iranian Foreign Minister left Pakistan before arrival of American negotiators showing lack of interest in negotiations on nuclear issue and navigation on which US has insisted, the talks are on pause. The US goal is only for the safety of the Iranian people and the peoples of the Gulf kingdoms, and the Arab world divided into unmanageable countries in some situations by colonial Empires of the British and French in 1921 (Syria, Iraq), the wider Arab world from Egyot to Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, to be free of nuclear weapons. Because these colonial policies not of the US but of the British and French and the counter response of Arab nationalism, have created 5 decades of wars in the world. It is then to remove these nuclear materials to another country such as Russia. The misperceptions created in the media appear in some parts to cast the US as a colonial power which it never was in the way of the Spanish, the British, the Dutch, the Portuguese, the French, the Danish. In fact exactly the opposite. One cannot think of an American who felt deeply for the situation the Chinese people were left in with the Japanese invasion than Gen. Joe Stilwell, as shown by Barbara Tuchman in her book Stilwell and the American Experience in China. Stilwell amazingly risked his life in railroad cars behind Imperial Japanese Army enemy lines in north eastern China in the 1930's because of his deep ly feelings for China at that time. Ever since the US differed with the British and the French on reparations during the Boxer rebellion of 1902, with Woodrow Wilson using the funds to create Tsinghua University in Peking (Beijing), the US has been benevolent in its intentions and as shown in its policy to Africa a partner for nations in Asia and Africa- with China, India, Indonesia, a large part of the Asian population, and now with Africa as shown in the investments in Angola, Congo, Zambia on this page. FDR made it clear in his letter of reply to Gandhi's letter from Wardha whose side America is on even in the middle of World War II. ...

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WSJ reporters Grant and Berzon provide an indepth account of how Donald Trump survived the worst crisis of his business career in the 1990's, as his deals involving the Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City collapsed. By describing how Trump responded the report provides insights into Trump's manner of operating, character, and the financial maneouvring to avoid the worst effects of the crisis. It shows Trump's resilience, and also the nature of the risky business deals that led to the crises in Trump's business life.

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About 90 countries are seeking help from the International Monetary Fund, the IMF. And 60 countries are seeking help from the World Bank. The IMF has about $1 trillion to lend. The World Bank has $160 billion to give out. 

The World Bank headed by Mr. Malpass has given India $1 billion for screening, contact tracing and lab diagnostics, to produce personal protective equipment, and set up isolation wards. 

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About 120 million viewers have watched "Downton Abbey," a BBC costume drama of British aristocracy in a rural setting from the 1920's. It will be shown on Chinese television in 2013 by CCTV. It is a top rated show in countries ranging from Brazil to Australia and Norway.

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Climate change is affecting about one fifth of the conifer forest cover in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, as shown in this NYT report. Forests have moved upland by 100 to 600 feet since the 1930's. Drier conditions and this movement upland have led to mismatch between the soil conditions and the trees in this area.

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Peter Coy, a veteran reporter at BW, who was prescient about the housing crisis, asks if defaltion is a possibility,; something hat happened in Japan in the 1990's and in the US in the 1930's. There is adownward ressure on wages from growing joblessness. With 7.2 million added to the unemployed since December 2008 and 263,000 in September 2009 alone, this pressure for labor to accept lower wages is growing.Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs predicts a drop in average hourly earnings of half a percent from the fourth quarter of 2009 through the fourth quarter of 2010. Hatzius accounts for workers strong aversion for wage cuts, without that the wages go down by 2%. Some experts say someone who lost his job 6 months ago is likely to accept alower wage now. If prices fall faster than salaries are workers better off. Not likely because of the destructive effects of defaltion from unused capacity an underutilized labor.

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As the August 1 deadline approached first the Japanese and then the Europeans who held out till the end sometimes treating the US with disdain and ridicule, realized that the US was dead serious about tariffs. Even the US business community tended to treat DJT tariffs with disdain not realizing that the tariff battles were first fought against Japan by Deputy USTR Robert Lighthizer under Reagan in the 1980's always to get a fair deal for the US. The recalcitrance of the Europeans and the Japanese can be understood by the non tariff barriers Japan placed on US products and the 10% tariff on US autos the European Union had in place for decades when the US only had a 2.5% tariff on German car imports.  The media in the US and Europe has utterly failed to tell the US side of the story. Here at Lyrarc we remain committed to bring out all the facts so that readers can better understand both sides. Initially the EU adopted an adversarial approach as shown in this report in WSJ by Kim Mackrael and Brian Schwartz. How is it that the Europeans and the Japanese took such a position when since 1980 there was no level playing field for the US on world trade clear for all to see? Not till late May as negotiations dragged on did Japan and the EU take stock of their own positions, DJT having to say US would impose a 50% tariff to get the EU to understand, saying "our discussions with them are going nowhere." In the end in Scotland Leyen and Sefovic for the EU accepted 15% tariff on EU imports to US. Akazawa of Japan had accepted this the week before. ...

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Nine months of parental leave and government effort briefly boosted the birthrate in Sweden to above 1.6 and above the replacement rate, then by the 1990's it went below the replacement rate. Sweden now has parental leave at 16 months and extraordinary benefits for mothers and parents. This shows that once the birthrate drops below the replacement rate it stays below the replacement rate even after extraordinary government effort. This is true for Australia and other countries in Europe.

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China put out a new map with Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin as part of China. China sees it as part of South Tibet. China annexed Tibet that was independent for centuries until invaded in the early 1950's, after the Communist Party under Mao formed the new Chinese government in 1949. Because of the map controversy president Xi may stay away from the G20 leaders meeting in New Delhi on September 9, and send Li Quang in his place.

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"When the Legends Played in the Leagues" is the Wisden Book of the Year. The Guardian shows Gary Sobers, the West Indies cricketer from the sixties and the seventies who is one of the most famous cricketers of all time. It shows English cricket in the English Leagues for 1950- 2000. Included here are West Indies cricketers Lance Gibbs, Wesley Hall and Rohan Kanhai. What Ken Rosewall and Rod Laver were to tennis Sobers and Kanhai were to cricket in that era.

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Harold Thibault of Le Monde France says, the rise of China in the past 50 years means the US is wondering whether engaging China turned out be something different than what Clinton anticipated when letting China join WTO without strict rules for a level playing field, and the Bush- Obama years when nothing was done to protect American manufacturing in small towns across America from the ravages of so called "free trade" that was not free, and the effort of American business to integrate its operations with China as single supplier without any guidance from government, behaviour that started with "American triumphalism" of the 1970's and 1990's, that left America with a destroyed industrial base. The Reagan wars that went on with Bush in the Middle East and South Asia and were continued through the Obama years allowed not just the waste of American resources and energy, it also provided a distraction from vital issues of the industrial base in manufacturing and technologies. Only DJT and Biden had the courage to end these wars and focus on the real issues facing the Nation and provide a continuity across three administrations from 2016-2029 to restore America to its past. ...

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US ceasefire proposal July 3, 2025 for Gaza accepted by Israel and Gaza/Palestine. An end to Gaza/Palestine war July 3, 2025 with US Egypt UAE mediators after months of fighting that have left Gaza in ruins, Iran and proxies in disarray, and leadership in Gaza changing three times. This opens up a path for humanitarian help to the population of Gaza/Palestine, ending hostage crisis, and finding a new path to Palestine/Gaza living in peace with its neighbors, Egypt, Israel, UAE and Gulf States.  It marks the end of another chapter of failures in the wars of the Middle East starting with Afghanistan/Pakistan under Reagan and Soviet leader Brezhnev on opposite sides, then Iraq/Iran interventions under Reagan/Bush/Bush first on one side then on the other, Afghanistan/9/11 under Bush Jr., Syria under Obama and Trump, Iraq/ISIS under DJT, and Afghanistan closure under Biden, Iran/Gaza/Israel under DJT second term. Forty Five Years War is an appropriate term reminiscent of the Thirty Years War in Europe in the 17th century, this one that destroyed Soviets and the American administrations priorities of Reagan to Biden 1980-2025. ...

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These pictures show the evolution of German films and Romy Schneider as she does roles as part of the Hapsburg monarchy's Elisabeth in popular German roles in the 1950's, and moves away from that typecast with some very different roles, opposite Anthony Perkins in Kafka's Trial, Heinrich Boll's Group Portrait with a Lady, and The Passersby. In divided postwar Germany in the 1950's these films of the Hapsburg monarchy and Elisabeth with Franz Joseph were popular, and still find fans during Xmas, says DW.com. During the 19th century after the French Revolution the Hapsburg monarchy and Vienna- Budapest its home base were close to Prussia and the German states. Germany was pulled into the first world war by the Hapsburg monarchy, and after its disintegration Austria was part of Germany during the Second World War. Today Vienna and Austrian culture remains close to Germany in the way Swiss culture in Geneva remains close to France and Belgium remains close to France. ...

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Some of the flaws in China's development model are shown by the Economist. Over half of the economy is dominatd by state run enterprises. And the remainder is also heavily influenced by local government and officials from the government. Financing goes through state run banks which lend to state run enterprises, and only a small fraction of lending goes to small businesses. These busineses are not actively looking to support innovation and new products. The other weakness that the Economist correctly points out, is that by contrast even in the 1960's, about 10 years into Japan's postwar development, quality control was a big thing with companies in Japan. The Deming Prize was seen as the most prestigious prize for Japanese companies, and Japanese engineers tried to learn everything they could about quality control to make Made in Japan mean high quality. They succeeded by the 1980's in making this happen, with leading global brands like Sony, Matsushita, Panasonic, Toyota, Honda, Canon and a host of other brands. If 1980 in China, is where Japan was in 1950, now about 30 years later there is nothing like what was seen happen in Japan in the area of quality and global brands. The area in which the freewheeling culture of capitalism has been most successful is the economic zone, a 2 hour drive between Guanghou and Shenzen. It manufactures mostly low tech goods like toys and apparel and shoes, and these manufacturing facilities are of low quality, with poor conditions for labor. With the efforts by the government to move to higher value added and high tech products these businesses came under pressure by mid 2007, with new labor laws, more enforcement, pollution control laws and resulting higher costs. As they felt the impact by mid 2008 from the higher costs, some businesses disappeared. Then another and even bigger problem hit these businesses. The global economic crisis, the shortage of credit in western countries to sustain import orders, and the rapid fall off of demand from highly indebted consumers in the USA, has led to closure of most of these businesses. The rapidity with which many of these businesses closed is amazing, as row after row of these buildings are now empty in the Guangzhou-Shenzen area. Another development is happening in Taiwanese firms like Hon Hai, that with little disclosure, make IPods, laptops, PC's, and other electronic products in the same area. At one point this firm employed 250,000 people in a industrial city sized factory campus. Now it is shifting production to places like Vietnam. Now Taiwanese reports say that the workforce of Hon Hai in Shenzen area will drop to 100,000. Other Taiwanese firms are also shifting production to other countries. Climate change and the heavily polluting industries that are widespread in China is one of the other flaws in the Chinese development model. Another is the lack of energy efficiency in these industries. With all these changes exposing the deeper flaws in the model China has used for development for the last 30 years, this a time for change in the way economic development takes place in China. ...

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The European Union plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, based on 1990 levels. The 21 hour summit of EU leaders met in Brussels. It was a constant worry about climate proposals said Angela Merkel. After a 21 hour debate agreement was reached including overcoming concerns of coal dependent countries. Merkel says "it was worth a sleepless night."

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The bursting of a dam on the Guadalupe river in Texas shows the problems of aging infrastructure in the US. The Lake Dunlap dam was built in the 1920's to generate electricity for rural homes in the state, and is one of six dams on the Guadalupe river. There are 91,815 dams in the US with an average age of 61 years, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers. It would cost $157 billion to repair and build new dams to replace these aging dams.

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Aging US dams are a problem like this one that was almost taken out in Midwestern states floods. The Rapidman dam in southern Minnesota was in "imminent failure condition" when floods hit last week. With the average of American dams at 60 years it looks like things will get worse. This dam 90 miles southwest of Minneapolis was built in 1910 on the Blue Earth River. With extreme weather events becoming common these dams are one more part of our infrastructure that needs rebuilding.

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U.S. president Trump's statement calling for a list of goods for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods leaves China without a clear response and facing new risks. The U.S. exports about $150 billion in goods to China so that China would have to impose penalties to respond at the same level. Placing restrictions on American firms on access to China's market, and imposing other penalties would have the effect of reinforcing the perception of unfair practices targeting American business and lead to hardening of U.S. response.  The U.S. sees itself as being in a better position with the U.S. economy experiencing a growth trend. China with large local government and bank debt faces a difficult situation. President Jinping's policy of reducing the risks of bad debt in the banking system involved sacrificing some growth to stabilize the system. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, the target at 6.5%. Future targets and actual growth now look to be much lower.The trade war with the U.S. has the effect of dampening growth leading to calls for the central bank to loosen its monetary stance. In response to Trump's announcement the People's Bank of China pumped $31 billion into the nation's banks. China is studying Japan's response in the 1980's and 1990's when the U.S. took strong action against Japan's growing trade surplus. Japan responded by appreciating its currency and using stimulus to cushion the effect of lower exports on the economy. The stimulus led to the housing bubble and over time a period of low growth and stagnant economy. The large China stimulus in 2008-2009 has compounded the problems in the banking system. Not deleveraging and controlling financial risks in China's banking system because of the trade war would bring a new set of risks. ...

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NHK documentary showing the atomic bomb explosion on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. The only surviving structure is the Genbaku Dome built in 1914 the entire copper part of it having melted in one second.

"A full scale nuclear exchange, lasting less than 60 minutes, with the weapons now in existence, could wipe out more than 300 million Americans, Europeans and Russians, as well as untold numbers elsewhere. And the survivors as chairman Krushchev warned the Communist Chinese, "the survivors would envy the dead." For they would inherit a world so devastated by explosions and poison and fire, that today we cannot even conceive of its horrors." 

This is John F. Kennedy in a televised address on July 26, 1963