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The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
The huge negative effect of tech on jobs in the U.S., and other countries- prioritizing solutions in 2015-2025
10/06/2014
The Economist and William Galston writing in the WSJ, look at the hugely negative effect on jobs as technology makes it possible to produce the same output in goods with fewer workers. Galston offers solutions for the U.S., and the Economist offers solutions for EUrope, Asia, and other regions that need to create jobs.
Linked Articles
Countering Tech’s Damaging Effect on Jobs
Wall Street Journal 10/15/2014
The world economy: Wealth without workers, workers without wealthEconomist 10/06/2014
Hope and reality in India and Nigeria- The Singh administration in India 2010-2014, and the Jonathan administration in Nigeria 2011-2015
02/21/2014
Are too many young people in the most populous countries of Africa and Asia seeing their hopes dashed and their dreams vanish with the mismanagement of the resources of the country and of the economy? Is the demographic dividend in these countries about to be wasted? Is the goodwill of foreign investors in Europe and the U.S. eager to bring the latest technologies to these countries, as they did in China, about to be wasted by sheer mismanagement and misallocation of resources? These questions are on the minds of young people in Nigeria and India as they rest their hopes on the Buhari and Modi administrations.
Linked Articles
Nigerian Central Bank Governor Ousted
Wall Street Journal 02/21/2014
India Allocated Coal Fields to Private Companies Illegally, Top Court RulesNew York Times 08/25/2014
Job interviewing at Amazon- emphasis on cultural fit and use of "skilled evaluators"
05/01/2013
Linked Articles
What It's Like to Interview at Amazon
Wall Street Journal 05/01/2013
Amazon's Current Employees Raise the Bar for New HiresWall Street Journal 01/08/2014
U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke's activist interest rate policies to tackle high unemployment and central bankers from MIT
12/12/2012
A pragmatic activist focus in economic thinking shaped at the MIT economics department in Cambridge, Masachusetts. The ECB's Mario Draghi, Bank of England's Mervyn King, and Bernanke shaped their thinking at MIT. Draghi and Bernanke had the same PhD. advisor- Stanley Fischer. Factors calling for a pragmatic approach include the lack of political agreement on th deficit, the housing and foreclosure crisis effects, higher inequality and unemployment effects on the middle class, the effects of the globalized economy on working class manufacturing jobs, people dropping out of the labor foce, and lower inflation, which called for a larger focus on unemployment. Bernanke emphasized the "enormous waste in human potential and productive resources of the economy" throughout 2009-2012. Draghi emphasized the abnormal nature of excessive borrowing interest rates for Italy and Spain during the ECB's bond buying efforts in 2011-2012. Both efforts had a stabilizing effect on the economies of the U.S. and Europe during a period of political discord about future policy.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/13/2012
MIT Forged Activist Views of Central Bank Role and Cinched Central Bankers' TiesWall Street Journal 12/12/2012
Russian president Putin and BP's 20% stake in Rosneft
10/18/2012
Putin sees the larger British ownership stake in Rosneft a offering more stability to the company. This also provides Russia with a reliable partner on other projects and access to new technology. Putin defended the deal for Rosneft to acquire TNK-BP because of the endless conflicts between the partners, which he says he warned against at the outset. He pointed to the 50-50 ownership arrangement in TNK-BP as inherently unstable leaving no one in control.
Linked Articles
Moscow Had 'Mixed Feelings' on TNK-BP Deal, Putin Says
Wall Street Journal 10/25/2012
BP Nears Deal to Sell TNK-BP StakeWall Street Journal 10/18/2012
The importance of vocational training in cities like Dayton, Ohio, with historically low college graduation rates
05/28/2012
These cities are being squeezed by high unemployment and declining incomes from lower paid manufacturing jobs. This makes college education more elusive than ever, and much worse so with the over $1 trillion in college debt in the U.S with spiralling cost of higher education. Vocational training in higher paid fields for families that cannot afford college and children who are not likely to go to college, is the only way not to leave behind a generation of growing children behind in these cities. It is an issue of the utmost importance for renewing America's smaller cities that do not have the advantages of San Francisco, Washington D.C. and Raleigh, S. Carolina, with their advanced university and technology hubs and access to finance.
Linked Articles
As College Graduates Cluster, Some Cities Are Left Behind
New York Times 05/30/2012
It’s time to drop the college-for-all crusade - The Washington PostWashington Post 05/28/2012
Research In Motion's Blackberry 10 and the effort to put together a patchwork of technologies
03/30/2012
Research in Motion failed to come up with a smartphone in time to match the iPhone and Android based smartphones. The Blackberry 10 was put together in crisis mode by June 2012. This is a classic example of the chaos created for established players by new entrants and new technologies.
Linked Articles
RIM's New BlackBerry 10: The Patchwork Smartphone
Wall Street Journal 06/07/2012
BlackBerry Maker in TurmoilWall Street Journal 03/30/2012
The views of Condoleeza Rice and Vladimir Putin on Russia's evolution through democratic processes
02/09/2012
Rice points out that diversification of the economy away from oil utilizing Russian technological capabilities will help Russia move away from the corruption of a resource based economy and build a healthy democratic setup. Putin says he recognizes the need for democratic processes to keep pace with the development of civil society and the growing middle class, but emphasizes that democracy cannot be built overnight, and places a higher priority on what he calls the "sovereignty of the people," the right to work, the right to education and free medical care.
Linked Articles
How Russia’s urban middle class can bring an end to Putinism - The Washington Post
Washington Post 03/09/2012
Vladimir Putin: My vision for a better Russia - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/09/2012
Two central bank chiefs compared- Draghi at the European Central Bank and Shirakawa at the Bank of Japan
01/30/2012
A cautious Shirakawa compared to a vigorous Draghi and Bernanke from the MIT School of Economics.
Linked Articles
Bernanke's Imprint on Fed Not Easily Erased
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2012
Key Excerpts: Mario Draghi Says ECB ‘Ready to Do Whatever It Takes’Wall Street Journal 07/26/2012
A smaller Wall Street in New York as the culture shifts towards emphasis on technology and other fields.
12/27/2011
The culture at Goldman Sachs and on Wall Street and the growing feeling that a shift to growth in other fields is a healthy development for New York and the U.S.
Linked Articles
Public Rebuke of Culture at Goldman Sachs
New York Times 03/14/2012
Wall Street Meets RealityNew York Times 12/27/2011
A cultural shift in job choices on U.S. campuses away from investment banking and finance to technology and other fields
11/22/2011
Shift in choices by graduates during U.S. campus recrutiing by companies.
Linked Articles
Wall Street' Latest Campus Recruiting Crisis
New York Times 03/15/2012
A Blow to Pinstripe AspirationsNew York Times 11/22/2011
Missteps by H-P's Board and the risk-averse nature of the Board at Microsoft- two tech companies and the transition to new information technologies
08/28/2011
Linked Articles
Microsoft Board Shows Little Taste for Bold Choice in CEO
Wall Street Journal 09/02/2013
H-P's One-Year PlanWall Street Journal 08/28/2011
Shaile oil as a lasting factor for oil supplies beyond 2015- U.S. shale oil production likely to weather Saudi price cuts as technology advances
10/23/2014
Linked Articles
The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale
Economist 01/13/2015
The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale BoomWall Street Journal 10/23/2014
The ways in which the Modi administration can accelerate growth in India (2) - rapid technology adoption and the synergy between new technologies, human resources and invested capital
05/17/2014
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/17/2014
Tata Consultancy Services CEO Welcomes Narendra Modi ElectionWall Street Journal 05/19/2014
Studies on mammograms by the British Medical Association and Harvard researcher Keating show lack of effectiveness of mammograms
02/11/2014
More mammograms are done the more cancer is suspected, with many women being treated when there was no cancer. Some lives are saved but the large number of women who begin treatment when they have no cancer shows the technology is still not there for effective screening without arousing fears that are not founded. Both studies confirm this from decades of data of women taking mammograms.
Linked Articles
More Doubts About Mammograms' Value Are Raised in Large Study
Wall Street Journal 04/02/2014
Study Adds New Doubts About Value of MammogramsNew York Times 02/11/2014
The LNG ship Prelude and the oil drilling rig Noble Bully 1- New technology changing the prospects and look of deep water oil drilling making it safer, cost effective and increasing production
01/03/2013
Shell's experience and technological improvements are changing the way oil drilling in deep waters is done. Chevron and other companies are also developing their expertise as this is critical in reaching the more difficult to access reserves deep in the ocean floor.
Linked Articles
A Novel Ship Extends Shell's Reach
Wall Street Journal 01/03/2013
Shell Plans Boat to Tap Gas FieldsWall Street Journal 01/29/2014
BP's sale of its stake in TNK-BP to Rosneft and a new start in Russia
10/18/2012
The Rosneft acquisition of TNK-BP ends a fractured relationship for BP with a difficult partner. BP starts a new relationship with Rosneft, and opportunities to pursue new deals in Russia. For Rosneft the acquisition makes it the world's largest oil company with a need for western technology from BP.
Linked Articles
BP's Russia Dance Reaps a Poor Dividend
Wall Street Journal 10/23/2012
BP Nears Deal to Sell TNK-BP StakeWall Street Journal 10/18/2012
ECB president Mario Draghi and the pragmatic and activist approach developed at the MIT Economics department
10/02/2012
Linked Articles
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2012
MIT Forged Activist Views of Central Bank Role and Cinched Central Bankers' TiesWall Street Journal 12/12/2012
The absence of solutions to the underlying problem of increasing U.S. health care costs in fiscal cliff deficit negotiations
04/03/2012
Without a new approach to increasing health care costs, especially considering the demographic changes in the U.S. with more people on Medicare in future years, the problems of defunding other areas such as education, R&D, and infrastructure, to fund these increases is likely to continue. Estimates show that the 50 million Americans enrolled in Medicare in 2012 will grow to 80 million by 2030, according to the Medicare program actuaries. Demographic changes as the baby boom generation ages mean more Americans relying on Medicare and Medicaid. With continually increasing health care costs from costly technologies, increasing of diabetes, asthma and other diseases, pricing in the medical industry, and some fraud costs, this is a toxic mix that will lead to to a situation where one of three dollars in spending get swallowed up here.
Linked Articles
Beneath Budget Battle, a Health-Spending Juggernaut
Wall Street Journal 12/17/2012
What to Do on the Day After ObamaCareWall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Surging U.S. car sales 2013-2016- the impact of an aging automobile population, new technological features including fuel efficiency, lower gasoline prices, lower monthly payments and an improving job market
03/16/2012
Linked Articles
U.S. car sales hit record high in 2015 - The Washington Post
Washington Post 01/06/2016
As Cars Are Kept Longer, 200,000 Is New 100,000New York Times 03/16/2012
Two central bank chiefs compared- Shirakawa at the Bank of Japan, Bernanke at the U.S. Federal Reserve and King at the Bank of England
01/30/2012
A cautious Shirakawa compared to a vigorous Bernanke, Draghi and King from the MIT School of Economics.
Linked Articles
Bernanke's Imprint on Fed Not Easily Erased
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2012
Vote Challenges Japan's Central BankWall Street Journal 12/13/2012
Kodak's slow struggle to reinvent itself since 2000, and the succesful effort at reinventing itself of Fuji Films in Japan
01/20/2012
Kodak Labs scientists continue to look for new applications for its patents and technologies at Eastman Kodak Park in Rochester, New York. A more successful effort at reviving the company in the face of technological obsolescence was made by its rival Fuji Films in Japan since 2000.
Linked Articles
At Kodak, Clinging to a Future Beyond Film
New York Times 03/20/2015
Fujifilm Thrived by Changing FocusWall Street Journal 01/20/2012
Technological change and America's future
12/26/2011
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2012
Behind I.B.M.'s Big PredictionsNew York Times 12/26/2011
The U.S. Supreme Court's review of the health care law in 2012 and the Wickard-Filburn decision of 1940
11/15/2011
In the Wickard-Filburn decision the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled against an Ohio farmer, Mr. Filburn, who questioned a federal law that imposed a penalty for every extra bushel of wheat grown beyond a stipulated amount. The briefs presented by both parties present arguments about what are the limits of federal power under its powers to regulate interstate commerce and in what circumstances- with the Obama administration arguing that it imposes larger costs on people in all states if some people refuse to buy insurance.
Linked Articles
At Center of Health Care Fight, Roscoe Filburn's 1942 Case
New York Times 03/19/2012
Health Insurance and the Broccoli TestNew York Times 11/15/2011
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