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Economic losses of 3% in GDP per head with Brexit and 8% with no-deal Brexit leaving Britons poorer
12/01/2018
As the Brexit option becomes clear as a hit to ordinary Britons and the British economy prime minister Theresa May takes her deal to the British parliament for a vote. Most opinion says it will be rejected, if not rejected outright by Conservatives and Labour MP's. A second vote may be taken. The Opposition Labour Party prepares for a new election with a divided government.
Linked Articles
The Economist 11/30/2018
Don’t write off the prime minister’s deal just yetThe Economist 11/30/2018
How the Democratic Party lost its blue collar working class identity to the Republican Party by 2018
07/20/2018
Linked Articles
Donald Trump is causing change in the Democratic Party too
The Economist 07/20/2018
America’s Factory Towns, Once Solidly Blue, Are Now a GOP HavenWSJ 07/19/2018
Jean-Claude Juncker and Der Spiegel on the idea of politicians from traditional parties using the rhetoric of the populist parties
06/16/2017
Linked Articles
Essay: The Dangerous Nationalism of Europe's Left - SPIEGEL ONLINE
SPIEGEL ONLINE 06/16/2017
Juncker Interview: Europeans 'Must Learn World Affairs' - SPIEGEL ONLINESPIEGEL ONLINE 06/09/2017
Goldman Sachs and the Trump administration- Steven Mnuchin at Treasury and Gary Cohen at the National Economic Council
12/09/2016
Bank stocks are up with the election of Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs share price up 34%, with the push back against regulation of banks following the 2008 financial crisis.
Linked Articles
Goldman Sachs No. 2 Seen as a Top Economic Adviser to Trump
The New York Times 12/09/2016
Trump Plans to Name Steven Mnuchin as Treasury SecretaryWSJ 11/29/2016
Educated Chinese women with jobs and careers- changing social and economic landscape in China
09/26/2016
The profound changes underway in China in the notions of marraige and family as a new generation of women are better educated and look for independent lives with their own careers. Over half of all undergraduates are women in China, and half of all graduate students pursuing master's degrees are women, showing how much China has changed in three decades.
Linked Articles
Marriage Falls in China, Transforming Finances and Families
The New York Times 09/12/2016
China Shrugs Off the Ties That BindThe New York Times 09/22/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (3) the inclusion of key "Leave" supporters in Theresa May's cabinet
08/16/2016
By including a key member of the "Leave" vote, Mr Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London, in the cabinet as Foreign Secretary, Theresa May has given herself a lot more flexibility in tackling the Brexit issue so that it does not hurt the British economy. It would be hard for a key cabinet member not to be part of the team position on issues, and for the team to ignore the Bank of England's role in steadying the economy. By making the issues important to working class people in Britain her priorities Theresa May also lays the ground for everyone in Britain to gain moving forward as the economy recovers.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
Theresa May, New British Prime Minister, Gives Boris Johnson a Key PostThe New York Times 07/13/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (1) the pro stay vote in Ireland and Scotland
08/16/2016
Theresa May, Britain's prime minister, is deeply committed to the idea of the union of England with Scotland and Ireland. Invoking Article 50 of Lisbon Treaty, a step necessary for Brexit, would also lead to Scotland's ruling Scottish National Party to initiate plans for a second referendum for Scottish independence, as Scotland votd to remain in the European Union. The issue of Ireland and Northern Ireland's vote to remain in the EU would also lead to serious repercussions. In short it will be hard to separate the leave vote in England from the stay vote in Scotland and Ireland, as it will be difficult for most British people to imagine a England without a British identity. If the referendum had asked the second question "Do you still vote leave if this means the end of Britain or the United Kingdom?" the vote could have turned out differently for nationalist voters.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
No return to border controls in Northern Ireland, UK PM May says | News | DW.COM | 25.07.2016DW.COM 07/25/2016
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton following the party conventions by August 2016
08/02/2016
Linked Articles
The Donald J. Trump Referendum
WSJ 08/01/2016
Donald Trump’s Challenge: Passing the Plausibility TestWSJ 08/01/2016
Donald Trump and the themes for the 2016 U.S. presidential election as seen at the Republican National Convention- law and order, and blue collar lives
07/22/2016
Linked Articles
Donald Trump positions himself as the voice of ‘the forgotten men and women’
Washington Post 07/22/2016
Donald Trump proclaims himself 'law and order' candidate at Republican conventionThe Guardian 07/22/2016
"Deaths of Despair", the causes and effects in a larger context, and the drop in America's ranking in the Social Progress Index to 19th in 2016
07/01/2016
How the middle aged white Americans 45-54 are faring in the current environment with fewer opportunities and greater vulnerabilities in health, education incomes, savings, quality of life, mortality, upward mobility, for this group. Tragically this means their children and the next generation is also affected in the way fewer opportunities are available in the future. The situation is unique to America with weaker social protection than Europe, and to Britain because of years of austerity. There are no quick fixes with easy slogans, and requires first a national awareness, national consensus, and may require the better part of a generation to solve and restore the hope and promise of Jefferson in making the "inalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" available to all.
Linked Articles
Rising Death Rates for Middle-Aged White Americans Are Forcing a Policy Rethink
WSJ 06/30/2016
The U.S. Now Ranks 19th in ‘Social Progress,’ With Finland and Canada Topping the ListWSJ 06/30/2016
Speaker Paul Ryan of the U.S. House of Representatives as the presiding officer at the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland and the party program
04/21/2016
Linked Articles
Inside Paul Ryan’s quest to set the Republican agenda - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/21/2016
Republicans Begin Tangling Over Convention RulesWall Street Journal 04/22/2016
The Republican Party and the working class in America in 2016- a sense of increasing distance from its base
03/28/2016
Linked Articles
How the G.O.P. Elite Lost Its Voters to Donald Trump
New York Times 03/28/2016
This one anecdote perfectly explains how Donald Trump is hijacking the GOP - The Washington PostWashington Post 03/28/2016
Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs
03/08/2016
By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.
Linked Articles
How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016
Can Trump Start a Trade War?Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016
The United States - Mexico Trade Agreement - removing the negative connotations of NAFTA with protections for American auto and steel workers
08/28/2018
Linked Articles
What the U.S.-Mexico Trade Pact Says
WSJ 08/27/2018
Trump Hails U.S.-Mexico Trade Pact, Says ‘We’ll See’ With CanadaWSJ 08/28/2018
Donald Trump Jr, Donald Trump, and the investigation by Special Counsel Mueller in 2017- the Republican Party position in WSJ and the Trump response
07/20/2017
Linked Articles
WSJ 07/18/2017
Citing Recusal, Trump Says He Wouldn’t Have Hired SessionsThe New York Times 07/19/2017
Catholic France, family, traditional values, and France's 2017 presidential candidate Francois Fillon
12/10/2016
The shift in mood in France where people find comfort in family, and the old traditional values, the awakening of Catholic France in towns and in Paris, is increasing the popularity of Francois Fillon, the Republican Party's candidate.
Linked Articles
Fillon Victory Shows France Returning to Conservative Roots - SPIEGEL ONLINE
SPIEGEL ONLINE 12/08/2016
In secular France, Catholic conservatism makes a comebackWashington Post 12/09/2016
The M5S party, Virginia Raggi and Beppe Grillo, following the "no" vote in Italy's referendum in 2016
12/05/2016
Linked Articles
Virginia Raggi could be the answer to Rome's mess | Europe | DW.COM | 04.06.2016
DW.COM 06/04/2016
European leaders call for calm as Italy's Renzi resigns | News | DW.COM | 04.12.2016DW.COM 12/04/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (4) the elections in France and Germany in 2017, and chancellor Merkel likely to link granting benefits of the single market to free movement within the European Union
08/16/2016
Chancellor Merkel has clearly stated that she sees the benefits of a single market going along with the idea of free movement within the European Union. With elections in 2017 and after not giving into Eastern European states in 2016, Merkel is likely to again remind Germany and France of the the true spirit in which the founders setup the European Union.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
EU Governments Gird for Steely New British LeaderWSJ 07/12/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (2) the British economy and the Bank of England's stimulus effort to avoid a recession
08/16/2016
The stimulus action of the Bank of England in August 2016 was designed to avert a recession in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that even with the stimulus the Brexit move will lead to a 1% drop in economic growth every year for 3 years as compared to staying in the European Union. The British public is weary of the austerity programs for 7 years under finance minister Osborne. if higher growth under Brexit turns out to be an illusion as the Bank of England forecasts show, there would be reason for much reflection on the meaning of the vote- seeing it as a rejection of the Cameron-Osborne government in favor of a government more in tune with the interests of working class people under Theresa May.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
Bank of England unveils four-pronged stimulus package in bid to avoid Brexit recessionThe Telegraph 08/04/2016
Speaker Paul Ryan's House seat in Janesville, Wisconsin- improving economy in a U.S. midwestern factory town and the debate on trade, help for working class families
08/10/2016
The unemployment rate in Janesville, Wisconsin drops to 4.4% in May 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was over 9% following the closing of the GM plant and the recession from the 2008 financial crisis. A working class town Janesville was hit hard by the closing of the GM plant in 2008. Amy Goldstein of the Washington Post describes the impact of losing about 5000 jobs at the GM plant, and the problems typical of most manufacturing dependent towns. Throughout the period since being first elected to Congress in 1998 Ryan has continued to be able to get elected on the basis of faith, family and public service, even though some of his policies may not have helped the poor and elderly or laid off workers. Ryan voted for rescuing the auto industry and worked hard to keep the GM plant, and listens to his constituents, and as the economy recovered by 2016 won easily in this old industrial midwestern town. His influence in national politics gives Janesville an opportunity to be heard, as it tackles problems common to many midwestern towns in the U.S.
Linked Articles
Could Paul Ryan’s ideas help his struggling home town? - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/19/2012
Paul Ryan beats outsider 'mini-Donald Trump' challenger in Wisconsin primaryThe Guardian 08/10/2016
Peggy Noonan, Special Assistant to Ronald Reagan, on Donald Trump and the Republican Party
07/29/2016
Peggy Noonan gave a poignant, teary, and touching account of the changes in the Republican Party with the Trump movement. Such a massive rejection of the traditional party leaders is unprecedented. The "establishment" in both parties has lost touch with working class voters, yet this has happened in the past and this kind of "one man Show" is unprecedented in American history. In his letters George Washington did not reject criticism and maintained civility and composure in the face of doubters, even when he was chosen to be the first president of the U.S.
Linked Articles
A Disunited Party’s Successful Convention
WSJ 07/29/2016
That Moment When 2016 Hits YouWall Street Journal 04/23/2016
How the few Oxford educated politicians forming an old boy's club and their infighting by 2016 led to the vote for Brexit
07/08/2016
How Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Johnson, a few Oxford educated politicians put their narrow interests and party politics ahead of the interests of Britain and the interests of the European Union.
Linked Articles
British Politics Gives a Sense of Government by Old School Chums
The New York Times 07/07/2016
Theresa May, Long in Public Eye, Finds Herself Focus of Conservative RaceThe New York Times 07/05/2016
Public focus on good governance, corruption and the rule of law- the situation in Mexico and Brazil in 2016
06/10/2016
The Worker's Party in Brazil and the PRI have seen a sharp decline in popularity by 2016 with public discontent over governance, corruption and the rule of law.
Linked Articles
Mexico’s Ruling Party Loses Gubernatorial Races in Several States
WSJ 06/10/2016
Brazil Workers’ Party, Leaders ‘Intoxicated by Power,’ Falls From GraceNew York Times 05/12/2016
The Bernie Sanders campaign and its effect of increasing negative perceptions of Hillary Clinton
04/20/2016
Linked Articles
Presidential Front-Runners Get Breathing Room After New York Vote
Wall Street Journal 04/20/2016
Hillary Clinton won New York, but her image is underwater - The Washington PostWashington Post 04/20/2016
Lack of coordination between EU nations and with Turkey- identified as a serious problem following the Brussels airport/subway terrorist attacks in March 2016
03/24/2016
Linked Articles
Hillary Clinton Criticizes Republican Rivals in Counterterrorism Speech
Wall Street Journal 03/24/2016
Brussels Suicide Bomber Slipped Terror NetWall Street Journal 03/24/2016
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