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Sectarian conflict in Iraq between Shiites and Sunnis following the U.S. withdrawal. Efforts by former Baathist party members and officers in the Saddam regime to aggravate sectarian tensions.

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The U.S. effort to protect the sea lanes in the straits of Hormuz as the Iranian backed Houthi rebels advance into the southern port city of Aden in Yemen. This involves support of Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and control of airspace over Yemen. In Iraq the U.S. makes airstrikes to support Iranian backed Shiite militias near Tikrit. The lack of a coherent policy and years of inaction by the Obama administration in the Middle East leads the U.S. into a situation where it is drawn into airstrikes on both sides of the Middle Eastern sectarian Sunni-Shiite conflict.

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The U.S. oil sanctions on Iran reduce flows of Iranian oil and create the possibility of conflict in the Straits of Hormuz where oil tankers carry supplies from Middle East producers to other countries. The sanctions lead to the unwinding of the nuclear deal Iran negotiated with the Obama administration. Another sign of how a change in administration leads to a reversal of policies and continued involvement of the U.S. in the region in different and unpredictable ways.

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U.S. president Obama visits Saudi Arabia in April 2016. President Obama presents arguments for forging "a cold peace" between Iran and Saudi Arabia after proxy conflicts in the Middle East. During the visit president Obama will encourage dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, at a time when Saudis are skeptical about U.S. policies in the region. Saudi Arabia has reduced the economic gains to Iran from lifting of sanctions and entering the oil market by ramping up Saudi production to bring down prices. The situation also affects Russia and Venezuela.

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U.S. Gen. James Mathis is troubled by the results of an Internal Look military planning exercize of war with Iran in the Persian Gulf . The two week military exercize concluded in early March 2012. The exercize showed the unpredictable and uncontrollable chain of events once a conflict started.

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The Syrian war started with Arab Spring in 2011 and a popular uprising against the rule by a Alawite minority that came to power in a coup staged by the elder Assad in 1970, says this report on the civil war in Syria. The war dragged out over a decade with the northwest in the control of Kurds, and groups backed by Turkey. Groups backed by Turkey which want to restore Syria to its national origins before the current regime took Homs, Aleppo and Damascus in a week as Iran and Russia withdrew from the country following the war in Ukraine and the Israel conflict with Iran. The US has only a small presence in the country to protect against terrorist groups. One of the effects of the conflict is the flow of migrants to Europe through Hungary into Austria and into Germany during the Merkel years. The opposition to migration that led to the CDU's decline in popularity and to Brexit in Britain started with this flow of migration from North Africa and the Middle East conflicts emerging out of the Arab Spring. In Britain the migration was also from Poland and countries in Eastern Europe.  This led to Reform UK and the Brexit referendum. In the US it led to the Border becoming a major issue in 2016 with migrant surge from Mexico in the last years of Obama's second term.  The collapse of the Venezuelan economy, economic troubles in central America led to another surge in migration in 2021-2023 from these countries making the Border a major issue in the US in 2024, and giving DJT a second term in office in 2025.   ...

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Why the Straits of Hormuz are a critical path in the seas near Iran and Saudi Arabia through which much of the world's oil supplies flow. With the U.S. gaining oil sufficiency the straits of Hormuz oil supply lanes in the seas are critical to countries such as China, Japan and India which lack enough internal supplies of oil. Japan's prime minister mediated between the U.S. and Iran to keep the oil supplies lanes open and free of the conflicts and rivalry that have taken place in the region. After initially saying Iran was responsible for some tankers that caught fire, president Trump reversed himself saying that it was unintentional. The U.S. maintains oil sanctions on Iran but is careful not to worsen tensions further, and Iran suffering from the sanctions pursues a policy of trying to wait out the U.S. sanctions.

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This article in DW.com says Russia's open intervention in Syria with bombing attacks on Aleppo comes with risks. It says the prevailing opinion is that Russia is trying to show its superpower  status in the Middle East and other areas. Other views are that it is showing that it will counter all civil society movements following the one that toppled Yakunovych in Ukraine, and sending a message to civil society movements in Russia. President Obama after meeting with Putin in Hangzhou in September 2016 for 90 minutes, said it appears that Russia is willing "to live with constant low grade conflict" for a long time. DW.com says this is risky for Russia, and it offers so little in return, with the loss of credibility with world public opinion. Compared to Georgia where ethnic Russian ties were involved, and Ukraine where Russia has historically had ties with the eastern part of Ukraine, Russia has no interests of this kind in the region of Syria-Iraq. In its ties with Iran Russia was historically one of the colonial powers like Britain and the U.S., with U.S. relations having worsened only after the 1950's, so no historic ties exist with Iran either.   ...

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Iran and Houthi rebels in Yemen seeking to enlarge the Gaza response of Israel into a wider regional conflict. The US under Biden seeking to limit the contours of the conflict and convince Israel to end its invasion of Gaza. Shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal are affected as Maersk now sends its ships around the Horn of Africa. The US and UK warships tackle a recent barrage of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea last week and the US says it will respond to keep theshipping lanes open for Suez and the Red Sea. The WSJ shows these shipping lanes and the impact.

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Lt. Gen Trainor and Michael Gordon describe the situation during the last months of U.S. presence in Iraq. President Obama is ambivalent about the size of the military presence he would like to leave, settling for 3000 troops and a few F-16's from a inital figure of 10,000. Obama sees the presidential election approaching and sets an objective of keeping it minimal. The military cooperation treaty with Iraq has to be approved by a Iraqi parliament with different factions in parliament not likely to approve it. Prime Minister Malliki decides not to move ahead. In the end no military cooperation treaty is signed after 8 years of war and a date is set for a complete withdrawal. Iraqi airspace is used by Iran to ship supplies to Syria's Assad regime, and the U.S. has less leverage in the region as the Arab world goes through a transition to popular government and elections. The Obama administration shifts most of its attention to Afghanistan where the U.S. has no vital stake in the long run compared to the Middle East region, with its large population, growing economies, move towards democracy and meeting the aspirations of hundreds of millions of young people. One Middle Eastern leader says the U.S. had no long term policy under the Obama administration for Iraq, and this applies also to the rest of the Middle East region, and mostly reacted to events as they happened. The Obama administration's committment to the war in Afghanistan, just as it focussed on winding down the war in Iraq, responded to the American public's waning support for the war in Iraq. It did not reduce the total cost of the conflicts because of the initial escalation of the war in Afghanistan and later slow progress towards a negoiated settlement to that conflict. A negotiated settlement is the best the U.S. could achieve, and the best desired objective considering the limited interests in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan most of the dynamics would be determined in the long run by the situation in Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relations, which the U.S. could influence constructively only through dialogue, promoting cooperation between the two countries, and economic relations....

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Gerald Seib in the WSJ gives 3 reasons for reluctance of president Trump to get involved in wars in the region on behalf of the Saudis- the U.S. is less dependent on Saudi oil with its increased oil production, China, South Korea and Japan depend on Saudi oil making it necessary for these countries to pay for the conflicts not the U.S. Other reasons are the U.S and Mr. Trump's opposition to endless wars that lead to neglecting U.S. priorities such as infrastructure and building its economy.  If the wars cost trillions of dollars the U.S. expects the Saudis or Asian countries to pay the U.S. for the cost of these wars. Japan is the most dependent on Saudi oil and it is playing a constructive role to reduce tensions between Iran and the U.S. Mr. Macron of France is playing a role because the EUropean Union also imports oil and wants to prevent the Iran nuclear deal from being ditched or at least for it to be renegotiated.

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With the arrival of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, and John Bolton as National Security Adviser, president Trump finds support for his own instincts on foreign policy. On North Korea, Iran, and China, president Trump takes charge of foreign policy favoring strong bargaining pressure to achieve foreign policy  goals in trade, containing nuclear weapons and reducing conflicts. He sees the peace talks with North Korea as moving in the right direction with his efforts, and makes the decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 on May 8, 2018, as he leaves the door open for new negotiations with Iran for a better deal that achieves U.S. goals.

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President Macron of France puts forward the basic building blocks for an agreement to reduce tensions with Iran. In a speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations he says that there should be negotiations between Iran, its regional neighbors, the U.S. , European countries and China. The Obama period nuclear deal of 2015 failed because of a lack of a comprehensive settlement and including Iran's neighbors in the region. Macron pointed out that the U.S. approach under president Trump of "maximum pressure" with tighter economic sanctions has produced a response from Iran of maximum pressure on its neighbors, including the attack on Saudi oil facilities with drones that took out half of the Saudi oil supplies. Macron put forward five issues for negpotiations to focus on: certaity that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons, solution to the Yemen civil war, a regional security plan that addresses other conflicts, ensuring security of maritime navigation especially in Straits of Hormuz, lifting of economic sanctions. He pointed out that "today we have a risk of serious conflict based on miscalculation and disproportionate responses." Mr. Trump even alluded to this when he told reporters after the dismissal of John Bolton as National Security Adviser, saying Bolton made Trump look like a voice of moderation. A lot depends on who are the advisers and whether moderation is exercised on all sides.  Macron, Merkel and Britain's prime minister Johnson met with Rouhani on the sidelines of the UN meetings to encourage dialogue. Countries likely to be severely affected by oil shutoff through the Straits of Hormuz are Japan, South Korea, India and China, and are quietly pushing for an easing of tensions.  ...

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Israeli officials say it did not see an attack on the Iran consulate in Damascus as a provocation. Israel did not let the US know till just before the attack. Israel's government made a miscalculation on the response says this report in the NYT. US officials see  events in the Middle East as miscalculation after miscalculation on all sides leading to escalation after escalation with unpredictable consequences, and seek to de-escalate the conflict.

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Kevin Maurer looks back at 15 years of covering Afghanistan since 2004, and asks was it worth it.  The conflict has cost 145,000 lives for the U.S. period of the war alone. Not counting the war in which the Russians were involved in the decade before the U.S. involvement. In fact the Russian involvement in Afghanistan was costly enough to hasten the collapse of the Soviet Union and bring Gorbachev to power to unwind the war and make the changes that led to the collapse of the Berlin Wall.  2400 U.S. servicemen dead and 20,000 Americans wounded. The cost to the U.S. is $737 billion for this war, according to a report in 2018 from Brown University's Costs of War Project. Just as the Soviet Union showed the damage from this war the U.S. has seen the cost of this war and foreign entanglement in another war that started accidentally with international interventions in the Iran-Iraq region as a cost that was borne with consequences. This includes the neglect of infrastructure and the damage to the middle class prosperity built up in the 1950's and 1960's after the Second World War. The U.S. got into this war with 9/11 attacks on New York City. By 2010 what began as a war fought by a few Special Operations teams turned into a war with troop levels reaching 100,000. Presidents Bush and Obama both failed to end the war by winning it. In 2014 finally combat operations stopped and American troops mainly conducted anti-terrorism operations and trained Afghan forces. In recent years the war has gradually disappeared from the national discussion in the U.S. and is barely talked about. President Trump wants to end the war even if it means talking to the Taliban and negotiations directly with the Taliban are ongoing.  One result of this war is the aversion to costly international entanglements and the highly unpopular nature of the conflicts. There are serious costs of the conflict in terms of neglected domestic priorities including infrastructure, loss of U.S. technological edge in key industries, and the competition from China, an the investments in health, education, services that were not made, the increase in inequalities and the diminishing of the middle class. The global financial crisis of 2008, the result of faulty banking, added an economic dimension through the loss of middle class savings in the U.S., worsening the financial situation of the middle class in the U.S.    ...

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John Bolton looks at the continual dithering behaviour of the U.S. president in the Middle East- Iran, Libya, Syria, Iraq in sequence- and provides some insights into the president's behaviour. He says it comes from Obama's distrust of the U.S. role in the world as a positive factor, and a deterministic view of the "arc of history" bending towards outcomes he finds ideologically acceptable. This coincides with a different public perception of America's role in the world, not so much of mistrust and skepticism, as of indifference and focus back on domestic issues following the event of the first war in Iraq and of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The two are different in nature as the public including women may not share the ideological frame of mind of the president that the U.S. is not overall a serious positive factor in the world through the presidencies of TR, Wilson, FDR, Truman, Ike, to Kennedy, Reagan and Clinton, from the Russo-Japanese war, through the First and Second World War, the Berlin Airlift and the Korean War, to the Balkan conflict. Bolton writes at a time when the two perceptions are about to diverge as the U.S. returns to its normal role of positive and constructive engagement with the world....

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The legacy of U.S. president George H.W. Bush is a four year presidency that benefited from the growth under president Reagan and low inflation but was cut short in a loss to Bill Clinton in 1992, Persistent budget deficits and high unemployment were seen as a result of the supply side deficits Mr. Bush supported as vice president under Reagan, but derided as "voodoo economics" as president breaking his pledge of no new taxes to cut the deficit. The collapse of the savings and loan banks with poor lending happened during his administration, and was handled by Treasury officials including current Fed chairman Jerome Powell. Mr. Bush is chiefly remembered for his negotiating the issues leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification of Germany. His handling of the Iraq war left a unstable situation in Iraq that led to a major problem for his son George Bush who became president after Bill Clinton, leading to a second and protracted costly war in Iraq. The effects of that conflict led to the changes in the Republican Party with its new leader Mr. Trump and a U.S. non-interventionist policy in foreign conflicts. Greg Ip points to the defict reduction as a positive contribution under the elder Bush, yet much of these gains were wasted in the costly Iraq conflict with U.S. hasty intervention. ...

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President Trump outlines a plan for Afghanistan that increases the U.S. troop presence from about 8500 with an addition of 4000 more troops and advisors, in addition to a counter terrorism force. To war weary public in the U.S. he says: "I share your frustration over a foreign policy that has spent too much time, energy, money- and most importantly, lives- trying to rebuild countries in our own image instead of pursuing our security interests above all other considerations." About his criticism of the war when president Obama was in office as a huge costly waste of resources Trump said: My original instinct was to pull out, and historically I like to follow my instincts... I heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk at the Oval Office." After resisting the advice of his own advisers Trump decided to fire Bannon who had supported use of American private security contractors for the war in Afghanistan, and used parts of the media to question national security advisor McMaster's views on this. Gen. Mattis, completed a strategy review that showed the mistake of creating a vacuum would repeat the situation of Iraq where president Obama withdrew forces in 2011, leading to a sequence of negative events- with Russia, Iran and Islamic State moving into the vacuum, making American intervention in the war necessary, increase in terrorist incidents worldwide, and a flood of refugees into Europe. Ironically clearing the path for an outsider's bid for the White House, with Brexit in which refugee fears and uncontrolled immigration played a part, and the news of terrorism and the war in Syria-Iraq creating a sense of insecurity. A key difference in the Trump approach with Obama's approach is that "conditions on the ground, not arbitrary timetables will guide our actions from now on," in line with Trump's criticism of Obama's approach. The military in the U.S. has long maintained that the best approach would have been to insist on U.S. presence in negotiations with the Iraqi government under the sectarian prime minister Nouri Maliki. Gen. Mattis was head of Central Command under the Obama administration and must have pushed the view of the military to president Obama to no avail. Failure to do so led to the growth of Shiite militias and the alienation of Sunnis in Mosul, leading to the fall of Mosul to Islamic State thus creating the current crisis. Gen. Mattis and Lt. Gen McMaster are intimately aware of the problem and must have convinced Trump that this is what really happened, that a repeat would waste the sacrifices of American soldiers in the twin wars. Trump gave this as his reason when he said in his televised speech to the nation- essentially a criticism of Bush that he expanded the conflict too quickly, and Obama exiting too quickly to create a void. Trump call his policy "principled realism."  The roots of the crisis are in the India-Pakistan conflict. Like the conflict in South East Asia the conflict in South Asia extending from Iran to India and Pakistan, may take a generation to overcome. A rapprochement between India and Pakistan, beginning with trade and economic relations, is not only in America's interest, it also provides the basis for a realistic American withdrawal. ...

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Attacks from Iran on Saudi oil infrastructure leading to a loss of half of Saudi oil production is likely to be a problem for countries such as China, South Korea and Japan that have reduced oil imports from Iran and increased dependence on Saudi supplies. This was a result of tighter U.S. oil sanctions on Iran. India is also affected. About 30% of the lost production will be restored say Saudis.  The U.S. is less dependent on Saudi supplies and as Gerald Seib points out in a video in WSJ the U.S. has 3 reasons not to intervene on behalf of Saudis. The U.S. has increased its oil production from shale oil and is less dependent on Saudi oil. It is also becoming reluctant to engage in Saudi Arabia's wars such as the one in Yemen against Houthi rebels. There is also less support in Congress and in the country for supporting endless wars that originate from Saudi actions. A Trump tweet before his election campaign shown in WSJ makes this point about endless wars and the U.S. needing to be paid trillions of dollars for these wars. The conflicts in the region affect China and India where growth is close to 5% before any impact from oil price increases. Together Asian countries take in 72% of Saudi oil exports and China now imports more Saudi oil than Russian oil by a wide margin- in June 1.88 million barrels a day. Saudi oil makes about 19% of imported oil in India and 33% for Japan. Imports into India of Saudi oil are up 8% this year to 847,000 barrels a day in 2019. China is better situated than Japan with reserve supplies of 644 days of imports compared to 230 days for Japan. This why Japan has played a constructive role in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and urged both sides to negotiate. China and India also have interests that converge in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. As a first step president Trump removed his National Security Adviser John Bolton in preference for reduced tensions.  ...

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Fears that the conflict in Syria might spill over and lead to a conflict with Iran pushed up oil prices. At the same time the new forecast by the International Energy Agency in early August 2012 showing a 20% decrease in demand growth in 2013, as a result of the economic slowdown in the U.S., Europe and China, acted to put a lid on oil price increases. Light sweet crude for September delivery was at $92.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on August 10, 2012, and Brent crude was at $112.95 a barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange.

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The complex relations of Jordan and Saudis with US and Israel, in June 2025.  There is also the perception and actions of the two American parties Republicans and Democrats that have exacerbated the situation. This see saw of relations under the two parties in the US has only served to exacerbate the relations and draw the US into Middle East conflicts that have their origins in British colonial rule and interests of western oil companies from 1900.  During the Reagan period American involvement under Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to support the Iraqi invasion of Iran in a balancing act. And just a year earlier the Democrat Carter's efforts to look at the Islamic revolution as a response to the CIA's intervention in Iran's internal affairs under Eisenhower's Foreign minister Dulles to secure oil supplies, and efforts to find a way to good relations with Iran. This was followed by the Democrat Obama negotiating with Iran, normalizing relations and Democrat Biden handing over Iranian assets  of hundreds of billions of dollars that were used DJT says to build its military that had suffered badly under the earlier western sanctions under Republican Trump.  It has led to some of the migration from Syria after Russian involvement that flooded Germany with millions of migrants and destabilized European countries democratic processes. These earlier interactions between US and Iran have turned into an Iranian effort to develop its nuclear capabilities bringing the situation faced today, and showing the failure to find solutions of everything tried before and not helping the people of the Arab World and the Gulf regions.   ...

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Hoover Institution scholar Fouad Ajami describes in this essay how a more active policy by the Obama administration could have prevented the chaotic situation in the Middle East, the sectarian conflict, the breakup of Syria and Iraq, the increase in terrorism eventually affecting France and the U.S., and the refugee crisis in Europe. This active policy he says would have included- keeping some presence in Iraq, and taking action to prevent the spread of the conflict by restraining regional and foreign powers and terrorism.

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Pierre Razoux, a French historian provides this account of the Iran-Iraq war that lasted from 1980 to 1988, at a cost of 680,000 people killed and $1.1 trillion in war destruction and money diverted from the economy. In 1980 Saddam Hussein of Iraq launched the war by attacking Iran which had just come under the Ayatollah Khomeini with the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979. The war dragged on for 8 years with Khomeini persisting in the war. With U.S. and Saudi policy to increase production bringing the price of oil down from $30 to $10 designed to bring Iran and Iraq to the peace talks, as well as the Soviet Union to withdraw from Afghanistan, all three being major oil producers. The dollar also weakened by 37% during this period. The diplomatic isolation of the Khomeini regime made it more difficult for Iran to buy arms on credit than Iraq could, leading to the war ending with Iran finding it no longer possible to continue the human losses. The Carter administration, particularly with National Security Advisor Brzezinski, tilted towards Iraq to oppose Soviets in Afghanistan, and the Saudis also supported Iraq during the early period. Under president Reagan the U.S. began covert and direct assistance to Iraq to prevent an Iraqi defeat early in the war. Rumsfeld visited Baghdad in December 1983 and March 1984 to organize the U.S. effort to oppose Iran. This may have laid the seeds for future conflicts that lasted through the administrations of the elder and junior Bush. As Razoux points out the Revolutionary Guards became entrenched from this period in Iran's history, making it difficult for election process to work or elected governments to operate. 23 months following the end of that war in 1988 Saddam Hussein launched a war on Kuwait, leading to the U.S. led Gulf war and the entry of the U.S. into a ground combat role, which was followed by the invasion of Iraq under George Bush after 9/11 attacks. The twin wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are estimated to have cost the U.S. over 1 trillion dollars. The result today is largely the division on the ground into Shia regions under the Revolutionary Guards and the Shiite government in Baghdad, and Sunni regions led by Islamic State and autonomous Iraqi Sunni tribes, ignoring the Iran-Iraq boundaries set in the colonial period by the French and the British. In all the amount spent in the Khomeini-Saddam war of $ 1 trillion being about $2 trillion in today's money, and the $1 trillion spent by the U.S., means about $3 trillion has gone into the wars in this region. This comes at a time of deficits in government budgets in the U.S. and a deep recession in the U.S. and Europe. It also explains why the U.S. public is reluctant to take even the minor action such as giving a standoff "no-fly zone" protection to the rebels in Syria, and supported the Obama administration in its reluctance to keep even the basic military force in place to protect its diplomatic mission in Libya, where the cost would be small relative to earlier enlarged military missions under the two elder and junior Bush administrations. The result is that refugees are pouring into Europe from Syria and Libya, through Turkey. Turkey itself is host to millions of refugees in camps along its border. The vacuum and the withdrawal of the Obama administration from the region has led to the rise of Islamic State with covert assistance from Sunni regimes in the region to counteract the growing influence of Shiite Iran. It also may explain the Iranian people's support for the nuclear weapons effort through years of sanctions, leading finally to an agreement with the Obama administration that relaxes sanctions in exchange for a future possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons. Lost in the conflict is the Arab Spring of 2012-2013, with the Tunisian democracy the only surviving result of that movement for democracy and awakening among Arab peoples. The Reagan administration in its aggressive anti-Soviet position made large errors- including ignoring human rights abuses and use of chemical weapons in the Iran-Iraq war, by supporting Iraq and reversing position after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, having a disastrous effect on the entire region decades later. Much of the Obama administration's reluctance for any action may stem from the U.S. role in this period and its consequences of protracted conflict. ...

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It costs Israel about $200 million a day. Building repairs from buildings damaged by missiles might coast $400 million. A month of war could add up to $12 billion. Air defense systems cost $700,000 for incoming drones and missiles per interception for the David system. For the Arrow system it costs $4 million per interception for ballistic missiles. This is why the ballistic missiles and drones launched against Israel from sites in Iran are big hit first. It is also why US -Russia and relations are so important in any of these regional conflicts. As two technologically sophisticated military powers both need responsible behaviour to prevent conflicts involving nuclear weapns proliferation. In this sense the idea of western powers is a colonial period idea of the colonial powers Britain and France, that the US should be wary of accepting and the importance of western civilization that includes Russia as a reliable concept that maintains world peace and nuclear non proliferation. ...

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The Obama administration started the first term in office with efforts at reaching agreement on reducing nuclear arsenals. By the second term of the Obama administration the talks were already faltering. The war in Syria and Iraq and other conflicts in the Ukraine led to worsening relations with Russia. During the first year of the Trump administration that followed the two Obama terms in office the situation is completely reversed from what it was in 2008, showing that more than good intentions are needed to pave the way for reducing nuclear weapons. The expansion of NATO to Russian borders, the conflict in the Ukraine, the sanctions that hurt the Russian economy in Obama's second term did more to destabilize relations. The Trump administration's ambivalence towards Russia is not seen in the way the U.S. is responding to Russia'a policy actions to expand its nuclear weapons capabilities.