LyrArc Article Gist
India and China find a common ground to work together to maintain access to cheaper Iranian oil supplies in the face of threats from the Trump administration of sanctions on countries importing Iranian oil.

LyrArc Article Gist
Oil prices in the U.S. drop to $55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and $65 a barrel for Brent crude price. Earlier expectation of the impact of reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil shrinking global oil supplies have been reversed with increased production from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.

Another new development that caused this reversal in sentiment is that the Trump administration granted waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude oil. The U.S. trade dispute with China has also added to this with lower growth forecasts. Unlike in previous years OPEC or Saudi Arabia cannot by itself shrink global supplies with production cuts. The U.S. and Russian output also plays a significant part.

LyrArc Article Gist
China has emerged as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, in the face of sanctions by the Trump administration to cut Iranian oil exports. China has replaced French company Total for the Pars oil field. It is investing heavily in Iranian oil industry. Iran has offered a 12% discount for China's oil supply needs. China has promised to invest $280 billion in the Iranian oil industry and is seeking to pull Iran into its Belt and Road Initiative. India also seeks to continue its oil trading relationship with Iran, in the face of U.S. sanctions.

LyrArc Article Gist
President Trump says before a summit meeting with Kim Jong Un of North Korea that the U.S. will not make the mistakes of the past where sanctions relief did not stop the North Korean nuclear weapons program. North Korea will be required to substantially give up and dismantle its nuclear program for serious sanctions relief. The North Koreans favor a phased approach. The U.S. will work to make sure that any dismantling of the nuclear program is such that it is irreversible, so that earlier mistakes where the North Kroeans simply restarted the nuclear work are not repeated.

LyrArc Article Gist
Why the Straits of Hormuz are a critical path in the seas near Iran and Saudi Arabia through which much of the world's oil supplies flow. With the U.S. gaining oil sufficiency the straits of Hormuz oil supply lanes in the seas are critical to countries such as China, Japan and India which lack enough internal supplies of oil. Japan's prime minister mediated between the U.S. and Iran to keep the oil supplies lanes open and free of the conflicts and rivalry that have taken place in the region. After initially saying Iran was responsible for some tankers that caught fire, president Trump reversed himself saying that it was unintentional. The U.S. maintains oil sanctions on Iran but is careful not to worsen tensions further, and Iran suffering from the sanctions pursues a policy of trying to wait out the U.S. sanctions.

LyrArc Article Gist
Iranian missiles and drones flying low and close to the ground avoided detection by Saudi and American air defense systems. The missiles and drones hit Saudi oil facilities stopping about half of the Saudi oil production. Iranian cruise missile technology was used for the attack, according to U.S. officials. The attack also showed how vulnerable the oil supplies from this region are to disruption. The U.S. is not dependent on Saudis for oil as it has increased its production from shale. China, Japan, South Korea and India are dependent on Saudi oil supplies. Yet the U.S. is shouldering a greater burden for ensuring reliable supplies to Asian countries, something the Trump administration sees it should be compensated for. Tougher sanctions on Iranian oil hurt its economy, resulting in actions taken by Iran to disrupt Saudi oil supplies. The Saudi intervention in Yemen is another source of tensions in the region. The Trump administration says it is not interested in endless wars in the region, yet its tougher oil sanctions on Iran are pulling it into the conflict in unpredictable ways. China, India, and other countries had sought sanctions waivers to import Iranian oil, and see the sanctions as hurting oil supplies. India with limited supplies of its own was affected by the oil sanctions. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Leaders of North Korea and South Korea, Kim Jong-Un and Moon Jae-in meet on April 27, 2018, at the military demarcation line between North and South Korea.  After handshakes and Mr. Moon stepping onto North Korean soil for a few minutes, Kim Jong-Un visits Seoul for peace talks.  This is a historic moment for the two countries as this is the first time since the Korean War (1950-53) that a North Korean leader has visited the South. No peace treaty was signed after the Korean War. During the period of six decades that followed the Korean War, particularly the period after 1980, the South Korean economy recovered from the war and expanded following the Japanese export model with large conglomerates such as Samsung. The North Korean economy has struggled in the period and North Korea is one of the poorest countries isolated for most of this period like Burma from the rest of the world. The development of nuclear weapons was pursued to prevent any external threats to the government, and decades of sanctions followed with aborted efforts to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. Recent ballistic nuclear tests and the installation of a new anti missile system in South Korea led to tighter sanctions with the cooperation of China. This heightened tensions, followed by the tighter sanctions. Kim Jong Un and the government are looking for ways to win approval in the international community, and find a way out of the tight sanctions. South Korea, Japan and the U.S. government are not sure whether this will lead to any results in denuclearization. The summit with Moon will be followed by a summit between president Trump and Kim Jong Un of North Korea. If a way can be found for the North Korean government and party leaders to transition to acceptance in the international community followed by integration of the North and South's economies over an extended period, there is a possibility that denuclearization could work, because it is to maintain the current government in North Korea that nuclear development was pursued in the North. Ideological conflict is now less of a factor in the conflict between North and South Korea as it was in the early days of the Korean War with the Cold War and Communism's advances in Eastern Europe and Asia the big issue at the time. Today China itself is more of a state run economy under the Communist Party following capitalism with Chinese characteristics than the old Communist model, and ideological conflict is not an issue between the U.S. and Communist run countries. This leaves open the possibility of a solution particularly as at some point just as in the case of Vietnam and the U.S., North Korea could see its future more allied with that of South Korea than with China. That leaves an opening for a timetable of transitional actions plus effective implementation stages, with incentives for the U.S. and Japan to negotiate a settlement. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The firing of John Bolton as National Security Adviser opens up the possibility of a meeting of Trump with President Rouhani of Iran. There is a need for both sides to begin talks on a nuclear deal that would replace the one Iran signed with president Obama to address issues raised by Mr. Trump and Republicans. Iran and countries that buy oil from Iran such as India, China and Japan have an interest in relief from sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on imports of Iranian oil. The European Union is keen to preserve aspects of the nuclear deal. Relief from sanctions is critical for Iran to develop its economy. The last two decades have seen Iran struggle to develop its economy with the sanctions imposed by  different U.S. administrations.   President Trump expressed flexibility on sanctions saying "we will see what happens. I think Iran has potential. They are incredible people." President Rouhani urged Mr. Trump "to put warmongers aside." Mr. Trump told reporters that he had resisted Mr. Bolton's opinions on issues and realized he had moderate views when compared to someone like Bolton.  Trump told Iran "We are not looking for regime change. We hope we can make a deal and if we can't make a deal thats fine too. But I think they have to make a deal." Helping the U.S. and Iran come to talks is president Macron of France who hopes to setup a meeting at the UN General Assembly which meets next week following his efforts at the G-7 meeting in France last month. In the past when tensions were high in the Straits of Hormuz President Trump refrained from aggravating this by saying actions that are "disproportionate" should not be taken and respected Iranian intentions. The tone of the conversation between the two sides has moderated to the point where both sides realize the need for coming to some compromise. This is in sharp contrast to the period a few months ago with rising tensions in the Straits of Hormuz and the seizure of an Iranian ship. Bolton's opinions were not the only issue for president Trump. He was also seen as the source of leaks including one that said Mike Pence, the Vice President, had opposed Mr. Trump's plan to bring the Taliban to Camp David. Also contributing to the new climate for talks is Mike Pompeo the Secretary of State, who has promoted the idea of talks with Iran. He told the media about such a meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York- "Sure. The president has made it very clear that he is prepared to meet with no pre-conditions." The willingness to try new ideas even contrary ones to policy pursued only a short while ago as long as the desired goal is reached is a feature of this presidency and key advisers. From the beginning of the Trump administration there is a firm sense of the need to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. and reduce foreign entanglements that have dragged on wasting resources and destroying priorities. With a willingness to try all sorts of approaches even ones that appear to be contradictory always keeping the end goal in sight. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Editorial Board of the WSJ says in this editorial that president Trump showed his negotiating skills to arrange the oil deal with the Saudis and Russia for cuts in production of 9.7 million barrels a day, including cuts by non OPEC G20 countries. The drop in U.S. production, cuts by Canada and the effects of sanctions on Venezuela and Iran should take out about 20 million barrels a day. Demand has fallen by 30 million barrels a day from the pandemic. This should help 11 million workers in the U.S. oil industry.

LyrArc Article Gist
The inflation worse than Germany in the Great Depression, and the collapse of the economy made worse by US sanctions of Democratic and Republican administrations on Venezuela's Maduro regime has led to the largest migration in the history of Latin America. About 7 million refugees leaving a country of about 28 million people or a fourth of the population in a large oil producing country. Socialist Policies of Bolivarist military leaders promoting populism such as oil at pennies a gallon led to the collapse spiralling inflation, and as relations worsened with the US and its oil sector was neglected. US sanctions played a part by 2012. Yet the economy worsened with further deterioration and stronger sanctions under the Trump administration by 2017.  The situation is such that even the US and both parties had never anticipated this, and not the middle and educated, or the working classes in Venezuela. Such a massive failure has never happened in Latin America in its whole history in the twentieth century. Considering the scale of this disaster, actions of all parties in Venezuela, and the political parties in the US have at every step exacerbated the situation. For further interest on this topic use search term Venezuela. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the NYT shows that Mr. Trump thought his forceful personality and going for the big deal would work where a quarter century of diplomacy had failed- to get North Korea to completely give up its nuclear materials and facilities in exchange for complete lifting of sanctions.  The meeting at a French era colonial building in Hanoi was the result of Mr. Trump's sense that he had developed a special relationship with Kim Jong-Un, the North Korean leader, so that he could suggest a grand bargain to Kim. Meanwhile North Korean negotiators had put forward plans for lifting of the most recent Trump sanctions that were affecting the economy and ordinary people severely in exchange for closing down of the Yongbyon nuclear complex but kept details vague. When Mr. Trump met Kim at the Metropole Hotel in Hanoi he gave Kim a detailed list of the nuclear facilities including one that developed uranium near Pyongyang for complete denuclearization, the U.S. goal.  The North Koreans were simply not ready to give up all facilities at once as they said the trust had to be built up before such a move. This report shows the nature of the wild swings from the early efforts to tighten sanctions and take strong action against North Korea., to the meetings in Singapore and Hanoi. At the time Mr. Tillerson at the State Department had suggested after a visit to Beijing that there were 2 or 3 avenues open, which Mr. Trump rejected and instead fired Mr. Tillerson. Mr. Pompeo who replaced Mr. Tillerson at State Department formerly headed the CIA and had detailed knowledge of the North's nuclear program including facilities hidden in tunnels all over North Korea. He and Mr. Bolton the National Security Adviser did not favor having the meetings first in Singapore and then in Hanoi. After the South Korean president's efforts to increase friendship with the North Koreans and his visit to Pyongyang he passed on an offer for Mr. Trump to meet Kim Jong-Un which Mr. Trump in a complete turnaround immediately accepted. This led to meetings in Singapore and then Hanoi with Kim against the advice of Mr. Bolton and Mr. Pompeo. At this point North Korea has suspended further tests but continues its nuclear development. The U.S. has suspended military exercises with South Korea.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A video view of the damaged oil facilities of Aramco in Saudi Arabia. A proxy war waged between Saudis and Iran with Houthi rebels in Yemen have worsened the situation in the Straits of Hormuz. Tensions were high, an attack on oil facilities was not expected. About half of Saudi oil production was put out of use in the attack by low flying missiles that evaded radar defenses. Saudis plan to meet oil export commitments by importing oil. President Trump imposed sanctions on the Iranian central bank, and at the same time said he would meet with Iran's president Rouhani for talks if arranged.  The European Union called for talks to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal considering all issues nuclear, oil, and political issues in the region. The effect of Trump administration sanctions on Iran's economy have led to worsening relations. Japan, South Korea, India and China are affected by the U.S. effort to limit imports of Iranian oil. As tensions rose Japan with limited reserves made efforts to reduce tensions and bring the parties together. Mr. Trump fired his National Security Adviser in an effort to open up ideas for a renegotiation of the Iran nuclear deal on a comprehensive basis including oil and political issues in the region. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Russian president Putin was hoping for an end to sanctions. The interference in the 2016 election was done with the hope that a Trump administration could make a difference in the sanctions after the deterioration of relations in the last year of president Obama.The U.S. Congress has moved to extend the sanctions, with Democrats and Republicans coming together on this issue. This means there is not much that president Trump can do to improve relations. This report in the NYT by David Sanger even goes as far as citing George Kennan from Foreign Affairs publication in 1947, that a "long term, patient but firm and vigilant, containment of Russian expansive tendencies," is likely to be U.S.policy.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Biden administration sanctions 24 Chinese officials for their role in reducing the autonomous status of Hong Kong. Most of them are connected with Hong Kong, one of them is on the Politburo in the central government in Beijing. The action takes place ahead of a meeting between the US and Chinese representatives in Alaska. China's recent actions to ensure that only those deemed as "patriots" could govern in legislative assembly in Hong Kong have added to the already existing tensions between the UK, US, and China. Earlier the Trump administration had put sanctions on 10 government officials in Hong Kong for eroding Hong Kong' autonomy. This adds to the already existing trade tensions, and protecting US technology tensions with China.

LyrArc Article Gist
Henrik Bohme says not just Putin is responsible for the situation Germany faces of a cutoff of supplies of gas from Russia if the Nordstream pipeline never comes back on after maintenance. Bohme says that in September 2018 at the UN  General Assembly Donald Trump told Germany to look in the mirror, saying that Germany would become completely dependent on Russian energy if it did not change course immediately. In return Trump only got laughter and head shaking from the German delegation says Bohme. Over that period the response was the same from Merkel and the CDU - a smugness and condescending attitude to the US. When the US imposed sanctions on Nordstream 2 Germans suspected a backhanded trick to get Germany to buy dirty fracked gas. Today it is buying the same fracked gas from the US and asking for more. It is similar to the situation for coal as coal is being brought from Colombia.

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ editorial says president Trump can exit because president Obama never really built support for the Iran Nuclear Agreement of 2015. Stephens in the NYT cites a Pew poll at that time showing only 21% supported it with 49% not supporting it.  This editorial says the deal made by Obama gave Iran $100 billion of sanctions relief and a chance to revive its nuclear weapons program after a 15 year waiting period. It says this increased conflicts and wars in the Middle East. President Trump said in his announcement on May 8, 2018 that the deal never led to "peace, or calm and never will." Another issue of winning popular support is mentioned, as WSJ says president Obama did not submit it as a treaty to the Senate for approval. The Trump administration has its own work now to build support with Europe in fixing the nuclear deal's weaknesses, and winning support from Democrats as well as Republicans for sanctions and new negotiations that help bring a better more peaceful Middle East, so that Iran can focus on lifting living standards and improving the economy, setting a new course. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Mr. Trump has a firm resolve not to get the U.S. involved in wars in distant places so that he can focus on important economic and other issues including the current confrontation with China on trade. He has relied on advice from General Keane as he forged American policy on Iran and other foreign policy issues. Mr. Bolton the National Security Adviser holds strong opinions on Iran and this is seen as a problem that could accidentally create more tensions or war with Iran. He was passed over with the job going to General McMaster in the earlier part of the Trump administration.The use of an aircraft carrier moving to the Persian Gulf region was merely a precautionary measure says the Trump administration, and the U.S. continues to look for ways to work out its differences with Iran even as it imposed sanctions on Iran. This brings the U.S. closer to its allies in Europe.

LyrArc Article Gist
The difficulty of protecting vital petroleum facilities in the Gulf region from drones and missiles even with existing advanced Patriot systems is likely to result in fresh thinking about the tight sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran. American pressure on Asian buyers of Iranian oil, Japan, China, India, and South Korea, has resulted in cutbacks of oil imports to Asia from Iran, reducing Iran's oil output and damaging the economy.  The election of a new government in Israel led by Mr. Gantz, departure of Mr. Bolton, Mr. Trump's flexibility to meet with Mr. Rouhani of Iran to renegotiate the nuclear deal, and America's effort to remain in control of its policy in the region consistent with avoiding entanglements in foreign conflicts, all point to a reappraisal of current policy. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Comments in the WSJ on the Trump - Putin meeting in Helsinki, and what the U.S. president should watch for in conversations and negotiations.  It says Mr. Putin's top priority is to shore up his prestige at home, to enhance his political standing. It says Mr. Trump is intent on showing the two countries can get along well but is skeptical of Mr. Putin's intentions on arms control and other issues. The efforts to increase the discord between the European Union and the U.S. are seen by the WSJ as Mr.Putin's effort to erode the will of the West to add to its capabilities. That any American president has to be wary of this effort especially in light of recent events.   From Mr. Putin's point of view the Russian economy is now in much better shape than when the "liberals" were running the country with a collapse of the Russian currency. The need to restore Russian prestige. That the expansion of the EUropean Union and NATO to the borders of Russia, and the situation in first Georgia and then Ukraine, required Russia to respond to protect its defense from foreign threats.This led to wars and intervention in Georgia and then Ukraine as part of Russian policy in response to advances of the West to its borders, and support of proxy governments in the Middle East. The response to economic sanctions was to turn to influence elections in the U.S. and Europe and the U.S. to soften sanctions. On the issue of sanctions this has not happened and the goal of Russia is to mitigate the effect of sanctions. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This analysis in the Wall Street Journal shows North Korea gaining from the cancellation of the meeting with North Korean leader Kim by president Trump. This makes the U.S as being less keen on dialogue. North Korea responded in a subdued tone saying it is willing to continue talks, and praised Mr. Trump's initial openness.

North Korea is seen as benefiting as China may have gained some leverage in how much it will act in enforcement of strict sanctions policies that pressured North Korea. North Korea has its nuclear facilities intact and has gained positive publicity from the Olympics and the meetings with South Korean leader Mr. Moon. North Korea sees the recent moves as its effort to be recognized as a nuclear power state, and is seen as continuing to follow this policy

LyrArc Article Gist
President Macron of France puts forward the basic building blocks for an agreement to reduce tensions with Iran. In a speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations he says that there should be negotiations between Iran, its regional neighbors, the U.S. , European countries and China. The Obama period nuclear deal of 2015 failed because of a lack of a comprehensive settlement and including Iran's neighbors in the region. Macron pointed out that the U.S. approach under president Trump of "maximum pressure" with tighter economic sanctions has produced a response from Iran of maximum pressure on its neighbors, including the attack on Saudi oil facilities with drones that took out half of the Saudi oil supplies. Macron put forward five issues for negpotiations to focus on: certaity that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons, solution to the Yemen civil war, a regional security plan that addresses other conflicts, ensuring security of maritime navigation especially in Straits of Hormuz, lifting of economic sanctions. He pointed out that "today we have a risk of serious conflict based on miscalculation and disproportionate responses." Mr. Trump even alluded to this when he told reporters after the dismissal of John Bolton as National Security Adviser, saying Bolton made Trump look like a voice of moderation. A lot depends on who are the advisers and whether moderation is exercised on all sides.  Macron, Merkel and Britain's prime minister Johnson met with Rouhani on the sidelines of the UN meetings to encourage dialogue. Countries likely to be severely affected by oil shutoff through the Straits of Hormuz are Japan, South Korea, India and China, and are quietly pushing for an easing of tensions.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The increase in economic sanctions in response to missile testing is seen by North Korea as "a violent violation of our sovereignty." The sanctions would cut the export revenues of North Korea by one third, further damaging a fragile economy. The North Korean communist government sees a nuclear capability as the only way to maintain its survival. The rhetoric between the U.S. and South Korea with the North Korean government takes place during military exercizes by the U.S. and South Korea. The tweets by president Trump and the missile tests of the North Korean government have escalated the situation to where everything about this is in uncharted territory in 2017. China backs the sanctions as it has increasingly lost control of the North Korean government's actions, even though it sees the North as a buffer zone in relation to the U.S. alliance with South Korea. South Korea's major city Seoul is only 50 miles from the border, making South Koreans play down any confrontation with the North.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The EU with its $15.4 trillion economy is a bloc comparable in size to the U.S. $19.4 trillion economy. The French State Secretary for Europe, Mr. Lemoyne, says EU does not need to be worried about the way the USMCA, new version of NAFTA was negotiated with pressure from president Trump, as the Europeans are the largest trading power in the world. The EU exports to the U.S. are $252 billion, and up 5% in the seven months of 2018 over the preceding period. The U.S. by comparison exports $153 billion which has remained at the same level with a $600 million decline in the same period in 2018.  President Trump has put pressure on the EU to help improve the trade imbalance. Soya bean exports are pointed to by the EU as this has doubled in 2018, after China responded to U.S. sanctions by limiting soyabean imports. President Trump has stated his intention to impose tariffs on European car imports - trade worth $60 billion- to get the EU to offer concessions.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
President Trump's willingness to use U.S. economic strength through tariffs, sanctions and other methods comes from the view that in the decade of the 1990s and 2000s U.S. worker and the U.S. was suckered by others. In this situation it was seen as acceptable to use U.S. tariffs and economic pressure to fix a global trading system and a China trade surplus with the U.S. exceeding $300 billion a year. Mr. Lighthizer it should be remembered, now the top trade negotiator with China was also the trade negotiator with Japan when it enjoyed a similar trade surplus with the U.S. during the Reagan administration. Economic pressure did not have to be ratcheted up to this level with Japan at the time. Japan was an ally at the time in the Cold War, Today China is seen as both a global competitor in world affairs and a technological competitor. Unlike the situation with Japan many Republican and Democratic administrations had failed to tackle the growing trade imbalance with China till it had become unsustainable. The views of Mr. Trump on trade were views articulated by Mr. Lighthizer for the last ten years resulting in a shift in opinion on trade in the U.S. by 2016 where a majority of people in the U.S. felt that globalization and world trade was working against American workers and industry. Mr. Trump as a Republican was both responding to the failure of others to tackle trade issues hurting the U.S. worker and business, as well as rallying support from workers, farmers and business to his party.   ...