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Germany's statistics office Destatis reports record numbers for imports and exports for 2014, showing a stronger economy going into 2015. Exports surged even as imports increased to 917 billion euros. Imports from the eurozone increased by 2.3%, a healthy sign for recovery of other struggling eurozone economies. Domestic consumer spending was up 1.7% for the 4th quarter from prior quarter. The trade surplus for 2014 set a record of 217 billion euros, exceeding the record of 195 billion euros set in 2007. A slowdown in Russia is made up by increased exports to other countries. Analysts say the lower euro exchange rate should improve trade performance with improving global demand also lending support. For the first time since 2007 domestic consumer demand is also picking up as wages are increasing. Destatis reports 1.6% increase in real earnings for 2014, the highest since 2008. Additional positive factor for domestic consumption is that wage agreements in 2015 should boost incomes further, say analysts....

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It is not far away as India and Canada have a long relationship in the British Commonwealth of Nations as prominent members. India and the Eu relationship was also building up for years to get to the takeoff stage with huge potential. The US India trade relationship will also benefit from the deals signed with Germany and EU as it gives new approaches to do trade with US.

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US trade with Germany now exceeds China's trade with Germany. With the change in supply chains, slower German economy leading to lower imports and a slowing Chinese economy, this is likely to lead to US and Germany having increasing trade relations and two way trade from now on.

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Germany holds the presidency of the G-20 in 2017. This provides chancellor Merkel an opportunity to provide German leadership on many issues. The ministerial conferences will lead to the summit in Hamburg in July 2017. Concern about the incoming Trump administration views on trade in international circles gives Germany and China a larger role in the meetings for 2017. Germany plans to put more focus on the real causes of migration and flight from poor countries and war zones.

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US actions to conduct investigations on 18 countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 - March 12 2026 after the Supreme Court asks DJT to use another law for tariffs. A key focus of the investigation is to show how industrial overcapacity is deliberately built through subsidies to push product into US markets and destroy American competition. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said March 11- "Our view is that key trading partners have developed production capacity that is really untethered from the market incentives of domestic and global demand." The US and DJT have repeatedly shown how this has been done over two decades to destroy the US industrial base. Another focus is on the used of forced or underpaid labor working in substandard working conditions and excessive hours. Greer says he will have the investigations results ready by mid-July when the presidents new tariff of 15% (after the SC ruling) expires. Other probes or investigations will also be conducted. All trade agreements signed with Germany, EU, Japan, UK, India, China, and other countries will remain in place. These countries have expressed a desire to keep them in place as that offers key benefit of removing uncertainty in making business decisions. ...

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India European Union Trade Agreement of 2026- game changer in world trade reconfiguring supply channels with 2 billion people market. EU's Leyen says she is determined to push ahead and make this the defining trade arrangement of this century. That the EU will deliver. For India it gives a reliable partner for modernization of its logistics, its infrastructure, and its industrialization, India's modernization in a rapid way. Similar to what China gained over 2 decades with its trading relationship with the EU, even surpassing that because of newer technologies in 2025-2050. It is a relationship based on two cultures and two civilizations, on respect for European and Buddhist/Vedic civilization for each other, totally different from the Imperial Japan of the 1930's that overran China, and the CCP in China ambitions for China Dreams based on belligerent action or support for belligerent action as in Ukraine. Leyen goes as far as citing Romain Rolland, a western philosopher of Indian civilization in the concluding point in her speech. In fact the first translation of the Bhagavad Gita was done by Charles Wilkins in 1765 taking it out of the hands of the Brahmins in Varanasi similar to how William Tyndale translated the New testament into English from Greek in 1534.  The Bhagavad Gita was then translated by German philosopher Frederick Schlegel into German from Sanskrit, spreading learning of Asian languages throughout Europe. India owes a lot to Europe and Europe to India, for two civilizations that speak the same human language of spiritual aspirations. ...

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DJT raises issue of NATO countries Turkey Hungary and Slovakia others buying Russian oil and gas + EU trade with China while asking for US help. Britain is a NATO country expanding trade with China while being strident about Russia. Germany has over two decades built economic relations with China through a period of Russian attacks on Ukraine including the Scholz administration approving China's stake in the port of Hamburg. India has been singled out by the EU and US, and by DJT with high tariffs while Britain and Germany carry on expanding trade with China. DJT believes China's support has emboldened Russia in its policy in Ukraine including pausing peace negotiations.

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Walter Mead of WSJ offers this view- expect more action from DJT in 2026 not less, than 2025. The president took the US Supreme Court's decision in stride, noting that it lets him do the same thing on tariffs- charge tariffs on countries doing unfair trade with the US- with other tools in trade legislation, just not IIEP rules. On the practical side every country wants to keep its trade agreement with the US said the president- Britain, Japan, South Korea, Germany, China, India. China and India have increased exports in 2025 even with tariffs rules that allow some exemptions. Large trading nations do not want the uncertainty that comes with renegotiating agreements arrived at with much difficulty with the US. This is not mentioned much in the media such as WSJ and NYT which instead  focus on the tariff revenue already collected of $130 billion and its use or refunding. What is relevant is that the purpose of splitting powers beteen the executive branch and the Supreme Court and Congress is preceded to a great extent by the public's ideas about what is fair, of rights of the US to fair trade, and preventing the deindustrialization of US and Europe. Which is why the Supreme Court has tried to tread warily on issue of illegal migrants by millions entering the country, and is trying to tread warily on issue of rebuilding American industry and infrastructure using tariffs to reduce concentration in China and act to restore a fair trading system for the US and the world. ...

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Chancellor Scholz of Germany holds talks with PM Narendra Modi on growing ties between Germany and India in trade, clean energy and new technologies. Scholz is on a two day trip to New Delhi and Bengaluru. The trip takes place in the backdrop of G-20 talks in India.

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The world today is in a much better position to complete the transition to zero dependence on the volatile Middle East for oil. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US   2. China  3. India  4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (India through waivers for Russian sources). European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources. US is self sufficient in oil and gas and exports oil to the UK, India, Germany and the European Union. Canada is self sufficient. Germany gets only 6% of its oil from the Middle East, the UK 12%, Spain 13% and Italy 14%. The Iran war is likely to shift more of the needs of UK, Spain and Italy to other more stable sources including oil from the US and Venezuela managed by the US, and other sources. This means that US policymakers can act in the best interests of all the nations of the world for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles. Germany is moving rapidly to renewable energy and this could bring its dependence on the Middle East to zero. India will meet its needs from Russia for the time being till it also shifts to oil from US+ Venezuela. India get 55% of its oil from the Middle East or about 2.7 million b/d. Russia was an important source of oil for India till the US trade agreement called for it to shift- a 30 day waiver and extension means India can get this oil from Russia without sanctions for the duration of the war. Reducing European demand and Indian demand frees up oil for Japan and South Korea on the world market the other 2 countries dependent on Middle East oil- Japan importing 95% of its oil consumption with imports of 2.5 million b/d and South Korea importing about 2 million b/d or 70% of its consumption. This means Japan and South Korea need a new strategy as they are overexposed to one source just as Germany was and learned a difficult lesson to diversify its sources. Japan has learned to reduce consumption for the same level of GDP and some of this can be through conservation, also tried in Germany in the last 4 years. During the 4 years. of Ukraine war Germany had to find ways to diversify sources Japan and South Korea will need rapidly to do the same in the Iran War. This means that only Japan and South Korea because of their lack of policy direction and vigilance have allowed this overdependence on the Gulf region,  (even as Germany diversified its sources, DJT and Israel were firm on nuclear weapons policy) they failed to see signs that they should diversify. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US 2. China 3. India 4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (Indi through waivers for Russian sources), European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources.    ...

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This editorial in the DW.com says the proposal to impose a 20% border tax on goods from countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit is bad for Germany and for the U.S.. It is a double edged sword because 1.6 million German jobs would be affected, according to Ifo Institute.  Yet also true is that German companies generate 672,000 jobs in the U.S., and about 600,000 of the 1.6 million jobs affected in Germany are by American companies in Germany, according to industry body BDI. Many of these American companies would be severely affected. So large is the bilateral trade relationship that no one would come out a winner, all would be big losers. Once the process starts it becomes tit for tat, as Germany and the European Union is faced with a dilemma on how to react, says this editorial. Which is why Merkel and Germany, are coming all out to get the trade talks on the right footing with the Trump administration. Economy minister Zypries warned about taking the case to the WTO if the Trump administration follows through on higher tariffs. Merkel has focussed on trade, and other issues have become secondary at this time. Before this meeting Germany's Gabriel met with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to set the right tone for German- U.S. relations. And the first meeting appears to have been tightly planned so that it goes off with a good start considering what is at stake. Even then this editorial reminds readers that the tone of the tariffs rhetoric from the Trump administration could affect perceptions over the next 4 years. ...

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Germany's 0.3% decline in GDP in second quarter offsets o.3% increase in first quarter. The cost of living and the uncertainty for the industrial base as it readjusts to new rules in trade following the energy dislocations of the shift in energy supplies, remain as hurdles for the German economy.

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The European Union's trade relations with China, and the trade and industry relationship between Germany and China built during the Merkel years is a part of the overall trade setup of the Free World that is likely to be questioned by Habeck, Baerbock of the Greens and chancellor Scholz after Mr. Biden's launch of the IPEF economic alliance for Asia. During her period in office Merkel also built the German trade relationship with Russia leading to Germany being dependent on Russia for 51% of its oil and natural gas supplies. The German dependence on Russia for energy is now being reversed by the efforts of Economy Minister Habeck of the Greens party in the Scholz coalition. The supply chain renewal and redesign by president Biden is likely to be followed by Germany and France and the EU. With it more investments will be shifted back to the US and the EU and allies in Asia such as India that offer a large pool of well trained workers similar to China's. In this sense the IPEF arrangement will be repeated in European Union's new relationships with Asia under the Greens SPD German coalition's leadership. ...

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The European Union has a massive surplus of $147 billion with the U.S. President Trump is making this an issue in trade negotiations. A 20% tariff on German cars imported into the U.S. is part of the tariff response from the Trump administration. 

To settle this dispute Germany is making new offers with the visit of European Commission president, Jean Claude Juncker, to Washington. France sees little room for compromise as it sees Trump's efforts designed to break European unity by driving a wedge between France and Germany.

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India will allow automobile imports at 10% duty instead of 110%, allowing 250,000 EU automobiles into the Indian market, as part of the deal that benefits Germany. Tariff on European wines will go down from 150% to 20-40%. Duties on olive oil and processed food such as pasta and chocolates will go down to zero, which will benefit Italy, and Switzerland. A labor mobility agreement will let professional workers and seasonal workers from India into EU and EU to India. New talks will bring India into the EU's Horizon Research Programme.

It will double EU exports to India by 2032 over 6 years when it is implemented starting in 2027. An astonishing 97% of traded goods are included for cutting or eliminating tariffs. It will save EU 4 billion euros in duties, says the EU. Tariffs are cut on a vast arrayof industrial products- iron and steel (India benefits) chemicals, plastics, pharmaceuticals (India benefits) and machinery (Germany benefits).

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In a first at Davos World Economic Forum, China's president Xi Jinping uses the 2017 meeting to give a one hour long spirited defense of the world trading system, critical of U.S. president elect Trump's protectionist views without naming him. Xi pointed out that "no one will be winners in a trade war." And went on to add that restricting world trade was like "locking oneself in a dark room, keeping out wind and rain from outside but also light and air." For the first time Jinping stated that China would take the U.S. role of defending the world trading system from attack as needed. On climate change Xi defended the Paris accords, and gave China's commitment to pursue changes regardless of what the U.S. under president Trump does. This follows Chancellor Merkel of Germany's statements on the issue critical of the views of president elect Trump, and taking the lead to defend the world trading system. Xi also pointed out that many of the ills that led to voter discontent in the West were not really from the freeing up of trade but from the pursuit of excessive profit with the financial crisis of 2008.   ...

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Instead of a jinx much to the contrary the US economy outlook for 2030 in Feb 2026- a surge in investment spending in 2026-2030, new manufacturing investments and lower energy costs, moderating inflation, are likely to propel the US economy ahead to 2030.The effect of tariffs as a policy making tool has been muted because of exemptions, reversal of tariff rates once key objectives were secure for tariffs as a way to get action on foreign policy as with Indian purchases of Russian oil, deals with Japan, South Korea and China, India, UK and the EU. Some sources such as the Philadelphia Fed see price rises reaching 3% in some inflation guages more than the moderate 2.5% in the consumer price index for January 2026. These sources see the hiring slowing down just as layoffs begin to happen in the latter part of the year which is a possibility but less likely. At this point in Feb 2026 there is a tendency not to layoff and to hang onto employees, and hiring has been slow in 2025. January's report of 130,000 jobs added is the first sign of strengthening of the jobs market. Overall a cautious view would be to call it a soft landing after the inflation surge of the covid period. Another way of looking at is is more in line with the strategic direction of the US economy- freeing up the economy with investments in energy,  reducing the key costs of production, tax policy of Bessent's complete one shot depreciation of equipment increasing business investment, tariff policy making the world trading system fairer and now more attuned to US interests, all creating an investment and jobs surge in 2026-2027. There is an added benefit from US efforts to free up the world trading system from the stranglehold placed on it by China with its control over world manufacturing. A dominance and unwise concentration gained from the serious mistakes of the Bush-Clinton period of not putting in safeguards for US factories and jobs (that form the backbone for families in neighborhoods towns and regions across the US), and US business interests growing indifference to the very communities they were based in by outshoring to China destroying whole regions in America. Even where it is criticized or seen as negative there are huge benefits when the US acted. Tariff increase on India is a clear example- it built Indian resilient attitude in June-Feb 2026, and during this period it cut funding Russia's war in Ukraine by sourcing energy from other sources, the US policy led to India and EU+ Germany signing trade agreements to double their effort and double trade and scientific cooperation ( a goal secured for the US as it reduces concentration in China), was followed by US signing its own trade agreement with India within days, and increases world trade of US and EU and Germany in ways that will bring 2.5 billion people into a strong partnership that overshadows anything that happened in China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failure. ...

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German management consultancy Roland Berger says in astudy that the cash for clunkers plan in Germany is likely to backfire by pulling in sales from 2010. It says car sales in Germany may fall by 20% in 2010, about 90,0000 jobs may be lost, and one in 2 car dealerships could be threatened with failure. GDP in Germany it says could take ahit. Roland Berger's partner Ralf Landmann says the German car market is good for 3.0 to 3.3 ,million cars per year. With sales in 2009 expected to be at 3.7 million, the forecast for 2010 are at 2.7 million to 2.8 million. Economist Carsten Dreger of DIW research institute in Berlin goes further. He says the cash for clunkers program was cannibalizing sales of other consumer products, in addition to taking sales from 2010.

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Canada's Carney gives up on USMCA renegotiated deal with US as he makes deal with China Jan 2026. No date is set for USMCA renegotiation. Carney stepped up the criticism of the US and suggested middle powers find their way by makiing deals of their own. This has drawn criticism from DJT, Luttnick and Scott Bessent, the Commerce Secretary and Treasury Secretary. Canada's economy has some fragile points in its dependence on the US and this may not be the wise course of action for Canada at this time. Germany, Italy, are meeting on February 12 and Europe may follow a different course of action of working with the US, India is close to a trade deal, so that Carney's and other remarks about going to partner with China at a gathering as isolated as Davos is from the real world may be very counterproductive.

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Russia uses SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organization to present it's case on Ukraine saying a coup supported by the US and Europe was the root cause of the crisis, in other words an effort to turn a Russian language country against Russia with it's effort to delink from Russia and join the European Union. US seeing China as the main competitor is trying under a Republican administration to bring Russia back into the European and US fold. The Europeans Germany and France, UK under Macron, Starmer and Merz are pushing back and see it primarily from the Northern European perspective of a Russian threat as they have over centuries of rivalry in Europe since 1600. China sees Germany and German led EU as its main source of western technology, trade and capital needed for a state run capitalism to function effectively. Germany seeks to keep it's China relations on a even keel for its economic interests, so does China. In this situation it can be surmised that it is the Europeans that asked DJT to sanction India for buying Russian oil to cut Russian source of oil resource sales by $119 billion leaving China's $136 billion purchase of oil from Russia aside (knowing China would not cancel sales easily), to buy time till Germany can build up arms supply to Ukraine. India is buying time to make a gradual shift to stand with the US and the improved US-Russia relations under the Republicans can only help India gradually shift to where it always stands- with the English speaking people of the world, the US and Britain, a policy Gandhi firmly supported and which India as an ancient civilization of the Buddha and the Bhagavad Gita finds itself at home with.   ...

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The broken world economy has hurt the American people, in small communities and towns across the US whose societal fabric was destroyed by a system of world trade with abuses done by China. Japan, European Union, Canada and Mexico since 2000. Shortsighted American leaders and economists allowed this to happen. Robert Lighthizer on the New World Order a new system of world trade that replaces the old in 2026. The old trading system was one in which lip service was made to free trade while all the time the system was used by Japan, Germany, China, Canada, Mexico and other nations to build non tariff barriers and other policies to support their industry  at the expense of the United States leading to disillusionment in the US. The facts are mind boggling- the loss of 5 million jobs, many small communities across the US decimated with loss of jobs. About 20 trillion in wealth transfers to China and other countries over 2000-2020, with foreigners owning $27 trillion more of US assets than the US owns of theirs. US Trade Deficits that went up by 40% in 4 years of the Biden administration from $800 billion to $1.2 trillion. Economists and weak leaders got it all wrong allowing this to happen from Geoge W. Bush to Clinton Bush and Obama. Lighthizer says "shortsighted leaders aided and abetted this process," from 1990 to early 2010. Consider that US had 17.3 million  people in manufacturing, in factories all over the US in 1970, in 1999 we had the same number of jobs, even though there were changes in technology and productivity- the US held its own with the rest of the world. The Bush, Obama years were the worst for the US industry - by 2026 we have 12.6 million - loss of 4.7 million jobs since 1999. And real median household income took a big hit growing from $72,000 to $84,000 about 17% in the last 25 years, compared to twice that in the period 1975-2000 prior quarter century. The result is the fracturing of American society- and dire consequences for healthcare as communities suffered from loss of jobs leading to drug overdoses, alcohol abuse and suicides, which are common in post industrial American communities. Think of this fact: two thirds of America's workforce that does not have a college degree, that is working class people, lives 8 fewer years than college graduates, a gap that was only 2.5  years in 1992. The wars carried on by Bush and continued by Obama in the Middle East also wracked these same communities till Biden and DJT pulled out. One has only to drive across America to see this with one's own eyes. Trade may be an abstract topic for economists and politicians- there is nothing abstract about this. And the economic growth of the US has suffered with the unfair trading system with China, European Union, Japan, Canada and Mexico. From 1945 to 2000 American growth was 3.2% a year. Since 2000 only 2 years of growth over 3%. US has not seen historically normal growth for the last 19 years and at this rate (if we continued along this path) the Congressional Budget Office says 1.8% growth for 2027-2035. There are other factors yet the the major driver of this is our trade deficit of $1.2 trillion dollars a year. It is a story of remarkable persistence in the Nation's interest through 2 adminstrations- this Lighthizer story. Lighthizer fought Japanese commercial interests as Deputy Trade Representative under Ronald Reagan, and as US Trade Representative under DJT in the first DJT administration in 2016-2020. His Deputy at the time is Jamieson Greer who is now the US Trade Representative in the second DJT adminstration in 2025. For 30 years this brave American patriot has fought to reverse the bad actions of presidents and economists that have led to devastating losses in the American countryside. He says any new trading system must be perceived as fair to working people. It will survive only if working people think it is good for them. It cannot and must entrench a small, permanent elite. The benefits going to labour must be at least as great as those going to capital. It should create fulfilling high paying jobs for the vast majority of the American people. This is America's new promise to its people, its new compact with its people. ...

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Starmer's visit to China and the result being halving of tariffs- it comes 8 years after Theresa May's visit 2018.  Starmer is following his intution  to set an independent course for Brtian's foreign policy. It makes sense as the US is using common sense in coming back to basics, to getting its own hemisphere policies right. How could there be a situation like that in Venezuela and Mexico as with the drug cartels operating as states within states- what would Teddy Roosevelt say about this? So we now have the Monroe Doctrine, the return of the Panama Canal, the restructuring of the oil industry in Venezuela, and other action. This also means Canada and UK, India, European Union can pursue policies that are common sense. It means for Britain a new openness with China after 8 years inward looking with Austerity, Brexit and Covid. For a smaller economy it makes sense for Britain to have agreements on trade as it signed with India, and now with China. Carney, Starmer and soon Merz will have worked out relations with China on trade and exchanges. For Europe and the US over concentration of making goods in China can be corrected while still engaging with China. For the EU the visits Germany's Merz made to the kite festival an India and Leyen/Costa of the EU following up with trade agreements are all part of common sense to not just reduce over concentration in China, but also to build a new partnership with India to form a 2 billion people market. All of which happened suddenly as European nations realized how to work out new arrangements following the war with Russia over Ukraine and China's support for Russia, taking up the cues from DJT common sense action in its backyard. "I'm a pragmatist, a British pragmatist, applying common sense," the prime minister tells BBC on the plane and says he wants to "make Britain face outwards again."  ...

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Let sleeping tariffs lie is the approach of S. Korea, Taiwan, Japan, China, India, European Union, Germany, UK-  expect all trade agreements with the US to remain in place after Supreme Court decision as no country wants to go through the intensely difficult process of renegotiating on tariffs. It is also the case that DJT can replace these same tariffs using other tools and different legislation passed by Congress to stop unfair trading practices by other nations. The president is also appealing to the public, some of the tariffs are about fentanyl flows into the US, the unfair trade practices and subsidies were a problem for the Biden administration and rebuilding manufacturing was the goal of both DJT and Biden, and will be for future administrations.  When the media NYT, Washington Post respond they are following the editorial line taken that opposes the DJT administration on all issues, when WSJ respond it takes the textbook approach of economists and finance people that free markets are best without considering the real life issues. This is why the president said at his press conference after the Supreme Court decision that 22 Nobel Prize economists had said the economy could not be turned around for growth and low inflation in 1 year, and were proved wrong after the experience of 2025 with low inflation at 2.8%, low unemployment 4.3%, and growth of 2.2% in real GDP (with strong growth in quarters 2&3 of 3.8% and 4.4%). Expect all tariffs to be in place under other legislation to be in place in coming months. ...

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Mead on Greenland and DJT at Davos- he says in WSJ that Europe and US have a lot in common. From the way the media handled it it played right into Mette Frederiksen of Denmark's effort to portray the US in a colonial light when the colonial power on record is Denmark which followed the British, the Dutch and the Spanish in setting up colonial empires, but just failed to compete and sold off its colonies one by one to the US or traded it for territory. Denmark has along dispute with Germany on Schlewig-Holstein. Germany's Merz avoided the rhetoric and his foreign minister Wadephul emphasized importance of Greenland for security of Europe and indirectly of the eastern seaboard of the US. Germany and Italy meet Feb 12 and both coungries will work with the US. Britain's Starmer joined the Nordic countries in protest with its own colonial record providing some of the darkest hours for China during the Opium Wars. Farage and Conservatives see Greenland would be best in US control for US and European security. This means much of Europe is still with the US on the Greenland issue though misrepresentations of the US position by Denmark and many Democrats continue because of a certain inveterate opposition to DJT, with no mention of Admiral Robert Peary's discoveries in north of Greenland in the 1890's (for US Navy), and Democrat Harry Truman's offer of $100 million for Greenland in 1947, going back to Secretary of State Seward's effort to add Greenland to the Alaska Purchase in 1867. ...

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The biggest decision coming out of the NATO and European Council meetings is Germany saying it supports stationing of long range missile systems in Germany by the US by 2026. German chancellor Scholz says the decision was a long time in the making and Germany supports it as a necessary step to secure the country. This happens as China's support to Russia continues through trade and economic relations and the Ukraine war prolonged for another year into 2025. Other decisions were to provide F-16's and added Patriot missile systems so that Ukraine can defend its skies from missile attacks.