LyrArc Article Gist
How the grandiose visions of Saudi new cities in the desert are being reset after the war, and the people in the poorest countries are being faced with higher prices for food, fuel and fertilizer when they can least afford it in 2026. The media focus has been on the Hormuz without saying, A. -that now with the Omani route added to the Iranian route in Hormuz a new defacto 2 route Hormuz is setup by the US Iran agreement. B.- that China has already reset its energy policy to do without the 3 million barrels a day it got through Hormuz, India has already setup new oil supplies from Venezuela, Japan is working out new arrangements, US is creating incentives for oil companies to produce in other regions of the world. And C.- the renewable energy policies, how much energy to use per unit of GDP under effcient use, is being accelerated in EU, India, China and Japan, and indirectly also in the US as cost of renewables comes down compared to fossil fuels. These will be constructive aspects of the situation. The world also shifts away from the Middle East a source of decades of wars that brought down the Soviet Union, destroyed some economies in South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan), created the distraction for the US that led to letting its infrastructure and economy to weaken, and destroyed the economic and social fabric in many parts of the Arab world and North Africa (Libya, Iran, Iraq, Syria). It closes a chapter of the Middle East from which lessons can be drawn for a focus on economic development and using science and technology to improve living standards of the people of the world, to tackle climate change, and for peaceful cooperation of major nations. ...

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Iranian response to Memorandum of Understanding shows reality of 2 factions in Iran, the IRGC military faction, and the elected president Pezeshkian plus Turkey /Pakistan/Egypt and Qatar as the second faction. With IRGC military rejecting the Memorandum on opening Hormuz and discontinuing nuclear weapons programs. This was true at the time Vance conducted negotiations and the Memorandum appears to have been accepted by IRGC only under great pressure from Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar, and the faction under Iranian elected president Pezeshkian. Where IRGC thinking could have been to give  agreement to the Memorandum that they had no intention of keeping, as its policy on nuclear weapons remains unchanged, and its goal is to use Hormuz for leverage and extend its control of Hormuz channel. The cost of sanctions and not being able to export oil, the effect on its economy, on cost of living with rampant inflation, may be of little concern to the people who run the IRGC military who suppressed all dissent and protests in 2026. Protests across different parts of society to the deteriorating economy. How could the US respond? The US used the time of the ceasefire to create a new status quo by using open navigation of the seas as the principle behind opening and protecting the Omani side of the Hormuz for oil shipment. This is a principle accepted by all countries. There is a backup plan of the US, China, India, Japan and other countries and this is to prepare rapidly to do without Hormuz so that the economies of these nations are not affected. The US also supported efforts by Saudis and Kuwait, UAE, to increase oil exports through channels outside of Hormuz, UAE's decision to increase oil supplies and lower prices by leaving OPEC, and US creating alternative supplies for India through Venezuela. Most important is China's decision that it no longer needs the 5 million barrels of oil from Hormuz for its economy to operate using alternative supplies and increasing efficient use of its oil resources. The world is also building up oil supplies and inventories so that Iran cannot threaten a cutoff from Hormuz because all nations have made other arrangements. Attacks by Iran on oil shipping on the Omani side protected by the US breaking the principle of open navigation of the seas, can then be considered Iran disrupting an open seas navigation route which it no longer is allowed to do under international law. This is something the world public opinion would support. The NYT has been critical of the DJT action in Iran, the WSJ and other media had joined in criticism. The situation in July 2026 is that the criticism of the US by NYT and other media, and from Europe and other countries in Asia will now be muted, because the US has tried all the options and is now finding ways to be able to bypass Hormuz altogether, and a backup plan or strategy to minimize the impact on oil prices. So that oil price of $70 may be kept at level around 10-20% higher not much more as Iran's military IRGC continues to disrupt the Hormuz supplies.  ...

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China 15th FIve Year Development Plan- roadmap to 2030. Slowing growth in the economy has led to a push on exports, investing in AI, EV's, Robotics, advanced technologies.

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UK Reform Party has taken large donations from cryptocurrency companies. Reform leader Nigel Farage has received a 5 million pound gift from a cryptocurrency firm. What does this mean for cryptocurrency regulation in the UK as a world financial center, if Reform wins a general election and appoints the next Governor of the Bank of England when Andrew Bailey retires in 2028. This is discussed in The Guardian. The banking system of the US, UK and large countries was set up over many years and currency is only issued by a central bank with the financial backing of the nation. Cryptocurrency cannot on the basis of technology take that role without posing risks and destabilizing the financial system. The gradual splitting of society by the information economy, neglect of infrastructure, pharmaceutical pricing, banking speculation as in 2009 crisis, have been eroding some of the basic structures of democracy for the last two decades from within.  The wars in the Middle East policies, and the open borders migration policies, were effects from outside. What this has led to is counter to what one would expect. To fight open borders and the marginalization of some parts of the working class DJT Republicans have used whatever resources were available at the time in the 2024 presidential election. The cryptocurrency firms used this in opportunistic fashion to affect regulation of this currency by supporting the reelection bid of DJT in 2024 by making large donations. This has led to less regulation of cryptocurrency firms. Is this in the best interests of the Nation? Will this destabilize the banking system in ways that have happened before in the deregulation of banks before the 2009 financial crisis? In Britain a new Bank of England governor will be appointed after Andrew Bailey's term expires in 2028. Reform party in UK if elected as government would appoint the next Governor of the Bank of England. Reform's growing popularity is a result of Conservatives and Labour failing to take action on open borders, asylum hotels, and migration policy, following an ECHR code of rights that is inappropriate to such migration. What this means is that unexpected things happen as a result. Cyrptocurrency risks of destabilizing the banking system increase as a result of failure of parties on migration. This could be more destabilizing for Britain because of its role as a financial centre than the industrialized  economies such as Germany, China, and industrializing economies such as India. It poses risks in the US yet Federal Reserve Governor Walsh can exercise his own judgement about cryptocurrency and Congress can exercise oversight, the large banks can act to show the risks of destabilizing that cryptocurrency can pose. For Britain it is particularly dangerous as the US is also an industrialized power compared to Britain's focus on finance alone. Andrew Bailey can ignore lobbying by Reform Party in 2026 (Farage met with the Governor of the Bank of England), yet what happens if Reform appoints the next Governor in 2028? These are questions Britain needs to ponder. It is also why Andy Burnham is Britain's last chance to get things right on migration to the point that the British people feel good and proud of their heritage and history, British neighborhoods across the country feel safe and secure, and Britain shifts to reindustrialize its economy with partners in China and India, the European Union, and the US. A former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Sir Charlie Bean told the BBC about donations of Christopher Harbonne, who has a 13% ownership interest in cryptocurrency firm,Tether. "Stablecoins are only stable if they have the appropriate regulatory environment… But there is right now an unsurprising regulatory race to the bottom amid the potential for greater profits." He added: "When funds are coming from major shareholders of such large financial institutions, there is a clear potential conflict of interest here, for example, in the appointment of a new Bank of England governor. Transparency is one solution." ...

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These 2 steel plants date back to Scunthorpe 1861, and Port Talbot 1905, when they were first built, when Britain led the world's industrial revolution. The two plants were modernized in the 1950's. British Steel and Tata Steel Port Talbot only two remaining steel plants in UK- retaking the UK steel supply chain move taken Labour in July 2026 as Andy Burnham takes the premiership. British Steel was privatized in 1988. In Asia British Steel and US Steel were revered during the colonial period to the 1950's and 1960's. In the US and UK strangely economic theories took hold that did not see the importance of steel and other basic industries in the life of a nation and its people. About 40 years later the lessons of outsourcing your main supply chains has been learned at great cost to the US and the UK. Note that in today's WSJ an Exclusive report shows the success US steel has become with government help and American tariff protection agiainst dumped steel from China and India. US Steel has grown till it is now the third largest steelmaker in the world. The UK government is nationalizing Scunthorpe plant now given name British Steel under the Steel Industry Nationalization Act. UK has set aside 2.5 million pounds for subsidies to the Scunthorpe and Port Talbot plants for modernization of old pre-1960's plants. This is the right move, if US Steel is a success story with DJT tariffs and government support, British Steel will be a success story with the same kind of support. And contrary to bad economic theory purveyed by some economists the US and UK can now have their own modern steel industries and supply chains at home. ...

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Andy Burnham is the first UK prime minister to have a degrees in English literature- a degree from Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge. Other prime ministers had degrees in history, Economics, Politics, and classical studies. Blake Morrison says here that a degree in English adds broadmindedness and empathy. Burnham thinks a knowledge of Chaucer ( one of Burnham's favorites), Shakespeare, Orwell and Harrison, has done him well on people's footsteps, as he campaigned in Manchester and Makerfield. This week The conservative press in the Telegraph and The Times, Cambridge University also commented favorably on this. After all a Nation that favors tradition, right down to the monarchy and sessions parliament, in the courts, and in its unwritten Constitution based on precedent, is unlikely to find a knowledge of Chaucer and Shakespeare to be at odds with a knowledge of the people and how to run the country for their benefit in a modern democracy. Economics has become too theoretical and quantitative to the point that it missed completely that China under CCP using an adaptation of a market economy and state planning, could catch up with the United States and Europe within 3 decades, going from bicycles and rural economy to  one of the largest modern transportation networks across the country, and dominating world manufacturing, supply chains and trade. Burnham says this author, professor emeritus from the University of London, could show his father that a degree in English from Cambridge was well worth his time by citing from Tony Harrison's poem called V about the power or words. ...

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France's 2750 kms of TGV track and 300 TGV trains making 1.8 billion euros profit a month. Double decker trains such as on the Marseille to Paris 750 kms route are popular. These trains are very quiet and efficient. Doubledecker trains are also popular. Bordeaux, Lyon, Lille, Strasbourg can be reached, and Geneva, Brussels, London, Zurich. It is the best high speed network in comfort and efficiency, food, in the world, with large group of international travelers. France did this after the 1973 oil crisis.LGV-Sud-Est was completed in two phases in 1981 and 1983. By contrast Britain faile to build ahigh speed rail line and work has dragged on for years. Germany has a similar but smaller network. China's only started in 2008 built over 17 years to 2025. India's is starting now with the latest Japanese technologies and should be connected major Indian cities by 2030, with the first line Ahmedabad to Mumbai complete in 2027.

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The media in US and in Europe presents the US and China on a confrontational course little aware that there is quietly emerging a new trend encouraged by both leaders of the two world powers. "Strategic Stability" in US -China relations instead of China seen as a rival and a threat- is now the goal of Xi Jinping of China in 2026 US-China dialogues and meetings. This was abundantly clear during the DJT visit to Beijing August 14 2026 and will continue to shape relations during Xi's visit in September. This is different from the confrontational attitude taken by both DJT in the first administration and Biden in his four years in office. The result is that these tensions are being gradually brought down which started in 2014, were exacerbated by Covid pandemic in 2019, and were put to the test in 2025 with tariffs policies of the incoming DJT administration. A decade of mistrust now being replaced by  buildup of cooperation, establishing a sense of trust and friendship. Partly out of necessity and partly from choice.This was not secured by giving up on issues the US or China saw as important. US did not concede anything on issues of fentanyl entering the US from Mexico, and tariffs for reducing trade deficits. Similarly China did not concede much on issues it saw as important, mutual respect for China as a significant power, and seeing China's different system of government and industrialization as legitimate and worthy of respect. On Hong Kong and on Taiwan both sides decided to see ambiguity and live and let live as the best option. So that in 2026 nothing, not the Iran War or anything that happens in the Middle East is to be allowed to deter both sides from making the educated good and decent choices that are available to them based on attitude of mutual respect.  ...

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WSJ Editorial Board on the closure of Hormuz and US efforts to strike Iranian coastal missile sites to open it after Iran's IRGC rejected the terms of the Memorandum to open Hormuz. What purpose did the Memorandum serve? DJT let JD Vance come up with a negotiated settlement -accepting efforts of Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar  to mediate a way out to open Hormuz- to make some concessions such as ending Iran sanctions, and opening oil markets to Iranian oil exports, ending the naval blockade, putting nuclear weapons development for negotiations during the 90 day period after the ceasefire.  The IRGC military inside Iran accepted it under pressure from the elected president Pezeshkian and Turkey, Pakistan. Yet its approach has been to accept one day and the following day issue statements contradicting this the next day. Some of the clauses were kept deliberately vague on the insistence of IRGC or worded in a way that IRGC could point to their interpretation and reject efforts for a ceasefire  and opening Hormuz. In the light of this experience 2 conclusions were reached by the US- the IRGC makes decisions for Iran not the elected president Pezeshkian and IRGC does not want to open Hormuz except by charging tolls as away to finance its missile operations. In this kind of a situation how does the US respond effectively without getting into a land conflict that distracts US from its domestic goals of building a strong economy, cost of living action, and rebuilding US infrastructure? This Editorial says Schumer's effort to block defense bills does not serve the national interest. Schumer's point to exercise caution to focus on domestic goals of rebuilding the US economy serves the Nation well, yet continuously blocking the president to gain in the midterms is not a good strategy. Lyrarc points out that the best way is for the US to continue the naval blockade if Iran won't allow Hormuz to be opened to all ships without tolls. And step two would be to find enough alternative sources of oil to make up for the 20 million barrels from Hormuz. Some of this could come from reducing use of oil and gas which China has done by importing less oil from 12.5 million barrels a day to 8.5 million barrels a day, effectively doing without the 4 million barrels a day it got from Hormuz. By doing this the US can avoid the effort to open Hormuz through alternative sources of oil supplies,  avoid being drawn into a prolonged conflict it does not need. Achieving its objectives on nuclear and Hormuz in a different way exercizing patience and using wisdom alongside strength. That course means the US would work with the European Union, UK, China, India, oil companies and other oil producing regions to forgo Hormuz oil as Lyrarc has proposed as the most effective answer to threats about Hormuz, and continuing the naval blockade.  ...

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DJT arrives in Beijing China May 13 2026. Topics that will be discussed are - the Iran War and how to resolve it, trade with China, tariffs, and US Taiwan policy. China continues to run trillion dollar surplus in trade with the world with lower trade surplus with the US after DJT tariffs. From $295 billion in 2024 under Biden the new DJT administration with DJT, Bessent and Jamieson has lowered this to $202 billion by 2026. In that same period the world trade surplus of China has increased from $992 to $1.19 billion. It is not clear whether some of the drop in the US figures is from China sending product through channels to Mexico and Vietnam that is then shipped to the US. DJT showed results in his policies by lowering the trade imbalance by 32%, while trade imbalance with the rest of the world has worsened (increase in trade surplus of China) by 20%. What does this show? We can safely assume that excessive trade imbalances are not in either China, EU, or America's interest. China increases trade and political friction by doing so, and it leaves its own policy weak by overdependence on exports, too little effort to increase domestic consumption and living standards.  FOr the US and EU trade imbalances with China of over $1 trillion reflect misguided policy at the top by US and EU decision makers and governments. By exposing their manufacturing base they are losing valuable jobs by the millions and creating a situation where the few with good jobs in select industries live in large cities and the rest of the country in smaller towns and rural areas suffering from lack of amanufacturing base. This weakens the investment base for public services and leads to lack of investment ininfrastructure. This is called deindustrialization which the DJT and Biden administrations both fight hard to reverse for the last 10 years since the disastrous years of the Obama and Bush administrations 2000-2016. For this reason we can say a good Republican is as good as a good Democrat, a bad Republican is as bad as a bad Democrat, political labels are just that labels. The media in US and EU are on a wrong footing and still fail to cover this the way it should be covered to shake off the lethargy in public sentiment in the US so that a rapid drive to reindustrialize and build new new infrastructure on top of the old that was built after World War 1 can take place. In today's world India is stepping up with major infrastructure building just as the US and EU ramp up their rebuilding.  ...

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China's president Xi Jinping visiting a trade fair in Shanghai, says China will shift to larger imports as it responds to calls from the U.S. and Europe to further open its markets, and buy more rather than focus on selling to the world. He said "it is China's sincere commitment to open the Chinese market." More than 80% of China's trading partners have trade deficits with China with severe complaints and tariffs imposed on Chinese goods by the U.S. president Trump.

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China's 15th Five Year Plan with shift to robotics, semiconductors, EV's, renewable energy, and lower investment in education, healthcare- the shift to a slowing economy, job losses. GDP per capita one third of the US much lower than most of southern Europe or Eastern Europe. China is still a middle income country. Unlike Japan which surpassed most of EU countries  GDP per capita, China with 1.4 billion people is a vast country. The shift in the emphasis in the 5 year Plan means economic growth  of 10-12% is now only 5%. With the collapse in housing construction and slowing manufacturing facing tariffs in the US means job losses.

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In the period approaching the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party of China and its role in the revival of China after centuries of decline, confrontation with European and Japanese invasions, and poverty, China is taking a long view of Hong Kong protests. Carrie Lam stated China was too conscious of Hong Kong and China's international reputation and was pursuing "the long game," in dealings with Hong Kong protesters and its relations with the U.S. and Europe. This approach sees the need for China to create a positive image as it seeks to settle the trade dispute with the U.S. that hurts China's efforts for improving the standard of living and continuing its modernization. This means keeping relations with the European Union on a good footing as it pursues tit for tat tariffs and resumes talks with the U.S. without giving up what it sees as its sovereignty for industrial policy and trade matters.  A new sign of this is changing the focus of Hong Kong protests from the Chinese government to Hong Kong tycoons who China says have created the housing shortages through their policies. By not releasing land they own for building new affordable housing and driving up prices because of the greed for returns the tycoons in real estate are asked to take some of the responsibility for the mess in Hong Kong and anger of protesters. The social and economic tensions have contributed to anger of protesters for which the government has become a easy target says China as it looks for ways to tackle the issues underlying the protests and separate the negotiable issues from the issue of "sovereignty" or China's right to decide its internal affairs. In the light of the Communist party's struggles against European colonialists and Japan's Imperial Army, "sovereignty" is a sensitive topic in China.  As part of this approach Carrie Lam, Hong Kong leader held a Chinese version of Town hall meeting to listen to the complaints of Hong Kong leaders for the first time after weeks of protests, to let people vent out their feelings and complaints.    ...

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Planned restrictions on the export of Nvidia A800 chips to China is a signal from the Biden administration to chip companies to stop circumventing the export restrictions, says this report in WSJ. These restrictions may include cloud services too. A800 chips have the same computing power as the A100 which are already restricted for export, but have a lower bandwith for communicating with other chips.

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How the visit is presented in China, what the Chinese people are seeing of the US president live and on their screens, and of the two leaders Xi and DJT agreeing to a policy of mutual respect and harmony in relations after a decade of mistrust during both the first DJT and the Biden administration. The choice was clear- mistrust and risks for world peace or the mutual respect that leads to harmony in relations. And both leaders are making the educated, decent and good choice.

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Compare AI models for versions v2 v3 by DeepSeek that cost $5.6 million with Anthropic AI model that cost $100 million+, and one gets the order of magnitude in cost for the new DeepSeek China model vs its US counterparts.  The hundreds of billions of dollars that OpenAI and big spenders such as Google, Meta, and Microsoft would have to drain capital markets would be a disaster for workers and families in the US and the standard of living, the infrastructure improvements that don't get done, and the investments in transportation and other vital needs such as schools, education and healthcare that directly impact the cost of living and the standard of quality of life in America and other countries. This is where competing models from China, from India, and from European countries can get us back to where we want to be to continue improving the cost of living and standard of living, quality of life in America for workers and families. This is the choice workers and families made in 2020 and in 2025, rejecting the wasted resources in wars that serve no purpose, and rebuilding the Nation's infrastructure, its water, schools, transportation, healthcare, childcare.  ...

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The 3000 delegates at the annual China party Congress and premier Li Keqiang showed support for President Jinping as the Congress makes changes to the constitution. The constitution was amended to include a reference to Mr. Xi's political theory, that the Communist Party would lead the country as it implements socialism with Chinese characteristics, creating a new anti-corruption commission that has party oversight of all public servants. As Mr. Jinping, 64 years,  begins his second five year term, to ensure continuity and stability the clause in the constitution that limits a president to 2 five year terms was removed. Wang Chen is the Congress vice chairman and he led the anti-corruption campaign in China that firmed up popular support for Jinping in China. Wang Chen explained that the term limit changes were designed to bring presidential tenures more in line with Mr. Xi's other positions as Party chief and military commission chairman, positions with more power and no formal term limits.  The process is part of government restructuring that puts the Communist Party more in charge of decision-making.   There was some instability under the administration before Jinping and growing corruption had undermined confidence in the Party, just as China's economy was slowing, with a bubble in real estate, high debt to GDP and need to pursue a soft landing for the economy. The present effort say some delegates including the president of Haier Appliance, is an effort that stable economic policies can be pursued to ensure China's future as its society ages, and the need to complete modernization in parts of the country that have not seen the gains seen in the coastal regions. And that corruption does not undermine the party's credibility to lead this change. The huge economic problems China faces, bigger now from a public interest perspective of pensions, social security in the Chinese context for an aging society, bringing the rapid development of the coastal regions to the interior of the country, housing, the high debt to GDP ratio, and need to ensure good economic growth to provide a stable economic foundation, may have led to a sense that a stable political foundation was needed to ensure this takes place. Political stability was affected during the previous Hu Jintao administration with the Bo Xilai episode when the party unity was affected as "some  party cadres and leaders were giddy and feverish on the waves of the market economy" as Jinping put it at Central Party School in 2013. Mr. Jinping grew up amid such tensions as his father a senior party leader went out of favor first with Mao and then with Deng after the Tiananmen protests. This instability in the country that affected economic progress is part of the experience of older Chinese leaders and affected their perception of events from memories of this period. Some of the media coverage on this topic can be misleading, as it is important not to forget that China suffered for 2 centuries in the nineteenth and the twentieth century -with British invasion in the nineteenth century and Japanese invasion in the twenty first century followed by the chaos of the Cultural Revolution before finally finding a way out of poverty and backwardness in the final decade of the twentieth century and the first two decades of the twenty first century.  ...

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In a first at Davos World Economic Forum, China's president Xi Jinping uses the 2017 meeting to give a one hour long spirited defense of the world trading system, critical of U.S. president elect Trump's protectionist views without naming him. Xi pointed out that "no one will be winners in a trade war." And went on to add that restricting world trade was like "locking oneself in a dark room, keeping out wind and rain from outside but also light and air." For the first time Jinping stated that China would take the U.S. role of defending the world trading system from attack as needed. On climate change Xi defended the Paris accords, and gave China's commitment to pursue changes regardless of what the U.S. under president Trump does. This follows Chancellor Merkel of Germany's statements on the issue critical of the views of president elect Trump, and taking the lead to defend the world trading system. Xi also pointed out that many of the ills that led to voter discontent in the West were not really from the freeing up of trade but from the pursuit of excessive profit with the financial crisis of 2008.   ...