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Vannis Varoufakis, Greece's feisty finance minister in the debt negotiations with the IMF and the EU, dispels the notion that the Argentina default is an example for Greece to follow, both in his blog and talking to James Stewart of the NYT. He says in his blog, that this is "profoundly wrong." Greece's economy is dependent on the euro, its banks and private sector borrowings tied to the euro, and going back to the drachma would be harder than Argentina removing the peg to the dollar and devaluing sharply in 2001. Even then half of the purchasing power was gone in conversion from dollar denominated deposits to pesos. In December 2001 Argentina defaulted on $93 billion in debt, sharply devalued the peso, resulting in a economic depression, riots and demonstrations. The economy stabilized in 2002, and paid back debt owed to the IMF by 2006, only because of export demand for Argentina's main products of soya beans, and corn, soya oil with high demand from China and Brazil. Greece's exports of cotton and fish cannot provide the basis for such a recovery, says Varoufakis. Arturo Porzecanski at American University, and Daniel Gros, Director of the Center for European Policy Studies have written 2 separate papers on Greece following the Argentine example, and agree with this conclusion....

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Instead of $20 billion proposed before Argentine elections when the country was facing economic pressures, banks will lend $5 billion in a short term facility, according to this report in WSJ November  20 2025 

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This is a watershed event for Argentina after it returns to international capital markets after decades of being shut out because of the 2001 financial debt crisis and protracted legal settlement. This was possible after a new administration of Mauricio Macri replaced the administration of Peronist party's Christina Kirchner, and U.S. president Obama's confidence boosting visit to Argentina.

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The situation in Argentina in April 2021. Economic growth of 7% is expected with higher prices for soyabean exports. The financial crisis with extravagant borrowing by the Macri government led to negotiations for help from the IMF. The IMF under its new head, Georgina Kristalina Georgieva, is working with governments around the world to lessen the burden of loan payments.

This report shows that the pandemic has hit working families in Buenos Aires suburbs very hard. The Peronist administration of Mr. Alberto Fernandez is making efforts to help working class families during the pandemic.

Argentina is too dependent on agricultural exports. Diversification of the economy would add stability and protect Argentina with less fluctuation in financial reserves.

 

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India's wheat output in 2023 looks to supplement output in Argentina, Canada, Russia and other countries to makeup for a shortfall in Ukraine's production. This will lead to lower prices and ease food shortages in other parts of the world.

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While attention is placed on Brazil for coronavirus, neighboring Argentina has an economic crisis with debt of $324 billion, reaching 90% of GDP. The new Peronist party government in Argentina is supported by the IMF in negotiations with creditors, as it faces the coronavirus and needs to free up resources from debt payments to tackle the crisis. Its proposal to Ad Hoc group of creditors including investment funds Black Rock and Fidelity is for a three year grace period on debt payments, 62% reduction of interest  amounting to $37 billion, and 5% reduction of capital or $3.6 billion. Earlier governments mishandled the economy leading to overborrowing on an unsustainable basis. Argentina has defaulted on debt 20 times in its history. The last being in 2001 with debt of $100 billion. The pattern of overborrowing and mismanagement by administrations modeled on free market economies has continued. Lenders, borrowers, and the government have not acted prudently knowing this history. ...

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Most of the provinces vote in favor of Milei including Cordoba and Mendoza, Salta and SantaFe. Only Buenos Aires province and two other provinces vote in favor of Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate. Milei wins by 56% to Massa's 46%. The election is affected by the Peronist party president Fernandez's failure to control inflation that has reached 140%. La Nacion points out that most voters are angry at the political and economic reality, and are not voting for an ideology. In April 2020 one US dollar was worth 80 pesos, in 2023 it is 1000 pesos. Argentine has a chronic problem- repeated bouts of high inflation over 4 decades.

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Faces of ordinary Argentines in Buenos Aires, as Argentina faces high inflation following a devaluation of the peso by 17% in early 2014. Argentina has faced recurring crises of devaluation of the currency and high inflation, in 2001 and a decade earlier under president Alfonsin, and in periods stretching back to the period after independence from Spain. Brazil had recurring bouts of inflation and devaluation of the currency which was followed by a buildup of foreign currency reserves during the recent boom in commodity markets. This has helped Brazil keep inflation under control, better than the situation facing Argentina with much smaller currency reserves.

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Messi uncertain if he will play for the World Cup in the US in 2026. It is 20 years since he played at the age of 18. The aging Messi says some days he feels good, on other days not so good, and it depends on his physical condition if he will play. He recalls with affection the chance to play in Argentina and score goals in the game against Venezuela 3-0 before retiring. He was thankful for the chance to play for Barcelona fans.

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A fellow Christian of Pope Francis who distributed food and blankets to remote villages in the Andean mountains of Peru driving his white pickup truck is the man chosen to lead the Catholic Church in the third decade of the 21st century. He is Robert Francis of Chicago, an American who first came to an Augustinian mission in Peru near the Ecuador border in 1985. In 1988 he returned to Peru, this time to the Augustinian seminary in Trujillo, Peru, where he taught canon law and was a judge in the regional ecclesiastical court. He spent 13 years in Peru before returning to the US in 1998. He was appointed by Pope Francis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, as apostolic administrator of Chiclayo in 1998, then Bishop in 2023 and Cardinal in 2024. In his speech from the Vatican Pope Leo XIV- Robert Francis- switched to Spanish in the middle of his speech. We now have not one but two popes from different parts of Latin America from the Atlantic coast Buenos Aires to the Andes mountains of Peru, knowing that Mexico, Chile, Argentina and Brazil ar Catholic countries, so is Central America and part of the US that is Irish and Italian, Spanish and French. It includes Spanish colonies in Asia such as the Philippines, and Portuguese settlements in Africa. ...

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Milei wins 41% of the vote in Argentina midterm Congressional elections in October 2025, with one third of Congress to support his economic programs to fight runaway inflation. About one third of the people live in poverty, as Milei resorted to tough action to fight over 100% inflation. It is  now down to 30%. Argentines are determined to find a way out of this inflationary crisis that happens once every decade for the last 70 years. The US plans to provide $20 billion in loan assistance, and another $20 billion from private funds. The IMF has a $55 billion program to support the economic programs that cut the number of people in the state sector companies and government, cut economic subsidies and social assistance, in a desperate effort to rein in inflation. Only when all members of society pull together, particularly young people, can a nation get its economic act right. Argentina must find a way. A rainy day fund has to be set up as happened in Brazil and Russia, financial prudence exercised by leaders, and the young people stepping up to change the country's future, change the trajectory forever. ...

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The Lula government in Brazil gets off to a good start. The economy grows by 1.9% in the last quarter and growth is expected to be 2.5% for 2023. New budget rules passed the conservative Congress providing funding for infrastructure and social programs. Brazilian cooperation makes it possible to add Argentina to the BRICS membership at the recent BRICS meeting in Johannesburg. Brazil also attended the recent G-7 meetings.

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Uki Goni writes from Buenos Aires, Argentina, describing the chaos and poverty of the years 2001-2003 following Argentina's default on its debt. At one point half of the population was below the poverty line. Argentina eventually recovered in 2004 under a new government of Nestor Kirchner, but had already incurred a terrible cost. This was especially hard on the lower middle class who had only their savings to live on and could not access their accounts at banks which were closed. Barter stores were common in those days as the barter currency gained wide usage for exchange of services. It is not clear whether this was due to badly implemented economic policy or defaulting on the debt. Goni says Greeks should seriously consider the cost of such a steep decline in the economy as they consider exit from the eurozone, and carefully evaluate the policies of Syriza politicians who risk a break with the EU.

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The increasing number of dengue fever cases in South America with 2.6 million cases in 2024 three times that in 2023.

Costa Rica, Caribbean, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina, Colombia top foreign destinations for US travelers have high rate of dengue fever caused by mosquitoes. Cases in South America spike during the summer which is from December to February.

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Argentina faces severe inflation of over 70%. The central bank raised its main interest rate to 75% to rein in inflation. In December 2022 the International Monetary Fund approved $6 billion, in a 30 month program that is expected to reach a total of $44 billion. The government of Pedro Sanchez has announced additional $10 billion in cost of living aid to take the total to $45 billion. It comes through reduced VAT and $200 one off payments to households making less than 27,000 euros a year.

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The drop in the value of the Turkish currency, the lira, hits ordinary Turks as it pushes up the price of food, medicine and other essentials. The lira has dropped by over a third of its value against the dollar in 2021. This is leading to a decline in living standards in Turkey, says this report in WSJ. President Erdogan is pushing an unconventional strategy to increase growth, by having the central bank cut interest rates as the value of lira drops sharply. This could lead to further drops in the lira making it difficult to make dollar debt repayments says this report in WSJ. The problem extends beyond drop in standard of living for average Turks. The country's banks are affected and companies that have borrowed heavily in US dollars and foreign currency denominated debt. A large mismatch between foreign currency debt such as dollar debt and the country's foreign exchange reserves has led to countries such as Argentina falling behind and seeking IMF assistance. WSJ points out that Turkey has about $160 billion in foreign exchange assets, and $280 billion in liabilities as of August 2021, according to the Turkish central bank. Bank lending in foreign currency is 24% to 45% of their total loans in the first half of 2021, according to Fitch Ratings. This could lead to dollar debt rollover difficulties as debt repayment comes due in April 2021. ...

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Risk is inherent in investing. It just needs to be understood well and grasped. There is a lesson in here that some risk is necessary, depending on one's risk horizon and it does not have to be Argentine bonds. Argentine 100 year bond and US Treasury 30 year bond returns 2017-2025 show quite a surprise.  50% return for 2017-25 on Argentine 100 year bonds vs -10% on US Treasury 30 year bonds. It shows the nature of emerging market risk says the WSJ- political risk. At one point the Argentine bonds showed a 50% loss, yet investors willing to stick through the downturn did better than expected, much better. The recovery did not start till Jan 2024 though, 7 years later. In this case the risk was the pandemic in addition to political risk of Argentine earlier defaults but the recovery took place years after the pandemic declined and with the election of Milieu as president.

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Italian immigrants like Mr. Bonato on his 4200 acre farm in Brazil's central savannah are trying to change the way Brazil looks at wheat. Once a wheat importer from Argentina, Brazil is trying to change this by growing tropical wheat. Italian immigrants in the cooler southern states such as Rio Grande do Sul were wheat producers. Now Brazil's agricultural agencies are getting these farmers to produce wheat in the more tropical central region of Brazil. Higher wheat prices are changing the way farmers look at wheat. Rotating wheat and beans is a good agricultural practice and the Brazilian agricultural agency is encouraging this. Brazil's agricultural agency Embrapa launched the wheat variety BRS 264 as a highly successful one for tropical wheat growing. In 2021 Brazil imported 40% of 12 million tons consumed mostly from Argentina. The idea is that with central Brazil meeting Brazil's wheat needs this would free up wheat from the cooler southern part of Brazil to replace the lost production from Eastern Europe. Mr. Bonato says his work is helping feed more people, and his interest in his work comes from holding wheat growing on the ground as a child on the family farm. After all he says, what is more important than bread?   ...

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Brad Guzan, 40 years, reflects on age and playing soccer, as his crucial saves helps Atlanta beat Lionel Messi's team Miami in the first round of the MLS playoffs in 2024. Next he will face Orlando on Nov 24. He says "40 is the new 21." Guzan says age brings experience- “It’s not about feeling younger. It’s about using my experience. It’s about using moments that I’ve been in before in terms of games and situations I’ve faced, and within a millisecond trying to analyze the situation that I’m currently in, and how to use my experience to help me make a save in that moment.” Guzan's two seasons in 2021 and 2022 were not promising. He could not stop Messi in the 2016 Copa America which US lost to Argentina 4-0. He worked hard throughout till the results in stopping Inter Miami's Messi in three games this season. His son idolizes not Messi but Aston Villa (Birmingham club) goalie Argentina's Emiliano Martinez. Guzan gained his early experience playing in the Premier League for Aston Villa. ...

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Latin America has made a huge turnaround through successful vaccination drives. Today more people are vaccinated as a percentage of the population in Latin America at 62% than in the US at 56% or Europe at 60%, according to Our World in Data project at Oxford University. There is little resistance to vaccines in Latin America after successful vaccine campaigns against yellow fever and other diseases. During the first year of the pandemic Latin America had one third of the deaths in the world with 8% of the population. Deaths after vaccination drives have dropped to 8%.  Brazil with 617,000 deaths from coronavirus was second only to the US with 800,000 deaths. Brazil is now back to normal after a successful vaccination drive that has 66% of the population fully vaccinated, and 80% with one dose, some of the highest rates in the world, according to Our World in Data at Oxford University. In Colombia with 50 million population about 50% of people are fully vaccinated. Cases have dropped from 30,000 in June to 2000 a day and deaths from 700 daily that month to 50 a day in December 2021. In Buenos Aires, Argentina's capital, 83% of three million population are fully vaccinated, 14% have received a booster. Buenos Aires city health minister says Argentine society has an affinity for vaccination campaigns. "They rapidly accepted receiving them," he says. Yet from the point of view of new variants emerging there is a different situation in rural areas. In industrial states such as Sao Paulo 78% are fully vaccinated, yet less than 40% are fully vaccinated in poor Amazon state of Roraima.   We make it a point to honor the brave reporters in these countries who provide the reports in the WSJ, as we did earlier for NYT Stephanie Nolan's reports from South Africa and Zambia about frontline workers against Omicron in Africa.  Luciana Magalhaes in Sao Paulo, Jenny Carolina Gonzalez in Bogota, and Sylvina Frydlewsky in Buenos Aires and Kejal Vyas writing this report from San Salvador. ...

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A general strike in Argentina in Nov. 2012 to protest rising inflation, estimated at 25%, and demands for a reduction in federal taxes for workers. The economy has deteriorated since the election of Christina Kirchner as president in 2011. Kirchner also has a fallout with the major unions.

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Argentina's new president takes over a failing economy in 2019. Mr. Fernandez declared a public emergency until 2020. A legislative package recently passed includes tax increases on the wealthy, tax relief for the poorest, a 30% tax on foreign currency transactions abroad, and a currency cap of $200 per person per month imposed by the previous Macri administration.  About 70% of new revenues will go to social programs, including free food vouchers for two million of the poorest Argentines. About 40% of the people in Argentina are in poverty, according to the World Bank, a shocking figure for a country that should be doing better given its natural resources and agricultural resources. The economy is suffering from hyper inflation at over 50%, jumping external debt at 90% of GDP. Total debt is $332 billion including a $57 billion IMF loan. About half the total debt is in foreign currency and is hard to service now that foreign currency reserves have fallen from $66 billion to $43.5 billion. The debt restructuring strategy now is to delay as much of the $70 billion of repayments due before the end of 2020.  ...

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Indian trade with Latin America 2025 of $40 billion sees a catchup effort to China's $480 billion trade. Efforts by Brazil's Petrobras and Argentina's YPF to increase exports of oil and LNG to India and increase imports of pharmaceuticals, automobiles and textiles.

Sabrina Olivera from the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI) says-

"The fact that India is the only democracy in Asia gives it an advantage in Latin America, where most countries in the region are democracies, trust in India is stronger than in China."

Brazil's president Lula and Indian PM Modi worked closely for G20 Summits in New Delhi and Rio de Janeiro. This cooperation and a need for Latin America to diversify from concentration of trade with China, increasing potential with India, can lead to a doubling or tripling of trade with India in a few years.

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The Argentine government proposes to nationalize the private pension system, which would provide much of the cash needed to meet debt payments to avoid a default. The private pension system has $30 billion in assets and has $5 billion in contributions each year. Economists say the new contributions could be used to fill some of the gap of $10-11 billion as a result of a drop in farm export prices like soyabeans, in what Arentina has to pay for debt between now and the end of 2009 for debt restructured after a 2001 default and new debt issued locally.

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Brazilians writing about Brazil in the Brazil Report. Brazil Report says Brazil has carefully avoided Chinese debt where it involves taking on debt that has risks for repayment. Brazil has not joined the BRI Belt and Road Initiative and it staking out its own debt free path to development like India. Xinhua in a recent article calls the "debt trap" a rhetorical trap set by the US and EU, arguing with World Bank figures that debt of Ecuador, Brazil, and Argentina is 6.8%, 0.6% and 1.2% of GDP for these countries.  Here are the projects China has financed in Latin America using its technologies and manufacturing, $15 billion of greenfield investment in 2019, $12 billion in 2020-2022. Monterrey Metro and tram, Bogota Metro, Panama Canal fourth bridge Chancay megaport Peru Brazil- BYD EV plant, Santos port terminal, Curitiba 5G City, Cauchari solar plant Las Mambas copper mine, Lithium mines Argentina     ...