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Jean Raspail is the French author  of "Camp of the Saints" and of "Me Antoine de Tounens King of Patagonia," winner Grand Prize of the Novel 1981 Academie Francaise. Written by Raspail, the son of the Founder of Le Figaro French newspaper in 1973, Camp of the Saints is a book describing Raspail's extraordinary vision of how boats from Bengal would suddenly appear at French shores carrying millions of people from Bengal fleeing conditions of squalor and extreme poverty. 1971 was the year of the Bangladesh war with millions of refugees from Bangladesh at the time called East Pakistan pouring into India from Bangladesh, hit by massive floods the year prior, and then facing an army of occupation from West Pakistan's Punjab ethnic group dominated Army. While calling Raspail's Camp of the Saints "openly racist" Le Monde does not show the events described here as being entirely real- the squalid and the squalor into which Bengal had been plunged by a over a century of British rule in India that as Gandhi showed in the 1920's in "Young India" magazine spent most of the budget on policing, and very little on development except rail for logistics to hold the Empire together. On this the French Left or French Right or the European Left or Right is silent, preferring not to open up the similar situation facing China Hongkong, Shanghai as Treaty ports and Beijing after the Boxer rebellion, the Middle East with Sykes and Picot creating artificial states of Syria and Iraq, and controlling states of Iran and Egypt, and Indochina as French colony. It is not "racist" it only shows what Raspail might have seen on television at that time of the truly squalid conditions, including a famine in Bengal in 1944 that was aggravated by British policies. If Raspail imagined that boats from Bengal would arrive at the shores of France it is not something that is not connected to reality, it is the squalor and squalid conditions- except the reality the so called Right and the Left failed to say was a result of the centuries of colonization that made the region miss the Industrial Revolution. Western India around Bombay and Ahmedabad was far more developed by the 1970's and more so by 2003 when Camp of the Saints was republished. In 2026 Camp of the Saints is outdated. Northern India, Western India and Central India is in the kind of rapid modernization that happened in China, with bullet trains, ports and new highways, new industrial infrastructure, housing, going up every year under the Modi Government. In the paradox of today the Modi government is referred to as racist or religious right without reference to its essential condition, its very spirit of modernization based on science and technology acknowledging and revering the contributions of European nations and America. Bangladesh is eastern Muslim part of Bengal. West Bengal is part of the federal Union of Indian States, and has fallen into disrepair and industrial backwardness within Indian states because of the lack of the rapid modernization that India is going through, under mismanagement of the scale of Venezuela. Much of the media in the west does not report the scale of the mismanagement of some of the states in India that were built on the legacy of the early decades after independence of policy to slow down industrialization and corruption that destroyed infrastructure investment. The federal government of India and the states run by the party at the federal level in northern, western, central and north eastern India oppose migration to the US and Europe and are now growing at the fastest pace in the world, faster than China, growing at 10-12 percent a year. Bihar state in India is the home of Lord Buddha and the origins of Buddhist civilization of China and Japan. It has a population of 130 million and is growing at 22% a year in 2026. India needs its young people at home, even though it is willing to loan some of its technical people to Germany and Europe and the US. The Indian federal government policy and policy of these Indian states run under federal policy is to oppose migration and find jobs for millions in a rapidly modernizing economy at home. This then is the reality in India, as well as China, with 2.8 billion people. No one in India, not Gandhi if he were here today, not the government in the Indian federal union and states faults Raspail and others and calls them "racist," because of the extraordinary help first Japan, then China and now India receives from America and the European Union to develop and modernize quickly. In fact Indians look with admiration on the western leaders in science and technology, the scientists and inventors of Europe and the US, and are eager to emulate them in the future. And this is true also of the people of China, and reflects the aspirations of the new generation. ...

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The US and Japan are coordinating efforts to limit transfer of sensitive technology to China and increase trade and cooperation within the G-7 in high technology sectors. Efforts are being coordinated with South Korea. Janet Yellen says the IMF has overblown the effects on the world economy from the US decoupling from China. IMF reports have also in addition presented India incorrectly as a non aligned country, when it is a close partner of the US. In 2023 US is the largest trade partner of India.The US position is to limit flows of technology in sectors considered vital, and continue world trade in other areas with China. US is committed to friendshoring to India, Vietnam and other countries. Germany's three parties CDU, Greens and SPD are reversing close trade and technology links with China. This is also the policy of the Modi administration which seeks close trade and technology ties to US and EU. The shift is in response to what is really an overconcentration of the supply chain in China that happened as business in the US and EU and the Merkel and the Bush-Obama-Trump administrations failed to see the risks of overconcentration. And carried out misguided policies in trade and investment that are now being reversed by US president Biden, Kishida in Japan, and Modi in India. ...

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What is behind Pew Research Report finding showing an unacceptable concentration of wealth that endangers democracy. Higher income groups making $244,000 a year in 2024 gained 19 percentage points of the total US Household Income moving from 29% in 1970 to 48% in 2024. About 50% of the nation's income going to 20% of its people and most of that to 2%-5% of the people of the US. The gains meant loss of 17 of these percentage points for middle income households making $106,000 a year that went from 62% in 1970 to 43% in 2024. Another 2 percentage points was suffered by vulnerable Lower Income groups making $35,000 a year who owned 10% of US wealth in 1970 went down to 8%.  The problems of divisiveness in the Nation come from three distinct areas. First money for state financed education for all being put into wars in the Middle East from Reagan through Obama and Trump and some wasted through capital misallocation to low priority investment by faulty capital market allocation. Second the high cost of pharmaceuticals and healthcare putting a heavy burden on low income and middle income households making $35,000 or 106,000 a year. Third the neglect of manufacturing that cutoff the opportunities for middle and lower income households and their one chance to move up the ladder. And the parallel shift of resources to technology and financial sectors that created opportunities for a smaller group of immigrant and higher middle income households with these skills.  These are the sources of America's distress and each problem is being attacked at its source by president Biden- exit from Afghanistan, canceling student loans that are egregious and prevent the investment in education America needs, large sustained investment in manufacturing and new supply chains, antitrust action on tech monopolistic behaviour, redrawing the shape of America's pharmaceutical sector to provide access to medicine to all parts of the population.    ...

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In the days when cross border technology flows were limited and the investment in India was small, India's technological capabilities at an early stage H1-B visa program acted as an exchange program where Indian engineers could gain experience and skills, learn new technologies in the US, that would benefit both India and the US taking a long term view. In 2025 when cross border technology flows to India from the US are large and significant, when Indian investment is large India's economy fastest growing and from a much larger base, with ability to absorb talented engineers in expanding Indian business, the H1-B program is one that drains both the US and India. India as a huge brain drain of 60,000 of its best engineers every year to 2030 or 300,000 of its best engineers and the 3 million engineers they would have trained locally through their creative talents. For the US it means the loss of 300,000 engineering jobs to 2030 for locals in 51 states in the Nation. Both make no sense. Business practices once set do not change. This is why an executive order by DJT was signed by the president to impose a $100,000 fee that Tata, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Apple can choose to pay every year for 6 years if they want to hire someone on H1-B Visas. To call this group of Indian H1-B of 60,000 engineers "dreamers" also makes no sense because 3.3 million engineers knowledge base and skills to India's growth capabilities and modernization could increase economic growth, modernization of Indian infrastructure, to make India a Dream State to live in. And the same number of American born engineers would make each of the America's 51 states Dream States through repowering America's new modernization of infrastructure and power economic growth. ...

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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Friedman in the NYT says China overreached especially since 2012 on trade, technology transfers, and in relations with American allies Australia, India, Japan, and America underperformed for its people by not investing in infrastructure, in workers incomes and in health and public services, education. Underinvestment in the very structure and backbone of American society while billions were wasted in foreign wars and in misallocation of investments by Silicon Valley and other investors. The coronavirus failure to get adequate warning through WHO and China's cooperation for American teams to be admitted immediately after January 10 request by the U.S. for Wuhan was a turning point.  

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Either China or India was going to at some point develop the Brahmaputra river known as Tsangpo in Tibet where it starts for hydroenergy. It turns out that the modernization of China preceding India's by 20 years and the occupation of Tibet in 1950 has put China in the position of developing this river with a huge dam. The Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states of India is the same river that is called Tsangpo in Tibet when since 1000 China had little physical contact with the region greatly remote from Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. The Brahmaputra in its Tsangpo stretch of the river in Tibetan region originates at lake Mansarovar and Mount Kailas and on a map can be seen as very close to Guwahati, Assam and distant thousands of miles from Beijing. The dam will include 5 hydropower stations, produce 300 billion kilowatt hours and cost $170 billion. Two decades of rapid growth in China supported by the US with technology and capital have given China the capital needed for this type of scale of investment in renewable hydro energy. It will produce as much energy as the UK used in 2024. ...

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The Yucatan Rail Project being moved forward by Lopez Obrador in Mexico is shown here in the WSJ. It moved forward during the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 and connects the Yucatan cities by rail. Yucatan cities  including Campeche and Merida bring about 8% of the country's exports and 10% of the country's GDP. Modern rail at 99 mph would connect the cities in the Yucatan to increase industry and tourism to develop the south east of the country. This is similar to the projects on the Brahmaputra river in the northeastern parts of India that are being opened up by new infrastructure rail and bridges for industry and tourism. Both the Yucatan and India's northeast are parts of the country that have much potential and have investment needs that were not realized in the past by previous administrations. The environmental impact in the northeast part of India and for the bullet train in the western region from Mumbai to Ahmedabad were held up by environmental concerns. A similar situation has happened for the Yucatan Rail Project. Even when enough trees were to be planted to help Mumbai residents for its Metro construction also shown in WSJ, he project was held up for political reasons. The bullet train project after its delay for political reasons will now cost nearly double that it would have cost before. It is supported by Japanese aid at very favourable financial terms that pay for the project, including direct government aid and Japan's rail technology. It is now moving ahead in 2022.  Infrastructure plays a key role in developing economies such as India and Mexico, yet it requires resolute conviction and perseverance as much of the political setup as shown in Mexico leads to leakage of funds meant for infrastructure and very little being done at great cost to the ease of living of ordinary people. In Mumbai and other cities in India. The same is true for Mexico which at this time of the pandemic needs to bolster its spirits and move ahead with much needed development work to help people in all parts of the country. With the Yucatan Rail Project Mexico can move to the next phase with wind farms on the Yucatan out to sea, and solar energy projects that could with new technology be transmitted to other parts of Mexico and to the US. It is important to keep trying and persevere on these new projects and look to a brighter future. For Mexico US relations better living conditions in Mexico also relieves the burden of illegal immigration and problems related to it in neighborly relations. Mexican officials should increase contacts with Indian officials working on the projects in the Assam region and  along the Brahmaputra river, in Indian states in the northeast, to exchange ideas and notes to gain from each other's experiences in integrating regions that were previously not integrated into the Indian and Mexican economies. This is a topic to be added to the G-20 topics to be discussed at the next meeting in Bali, Indonesia, on November 15-16, 2022. For Mexico it is an opportunity to also widen its infrastructure work to learn from what India is doing in solar and wind energy and build collaborative efforts. ...

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In EU elections the German coalition parties of SPD, Greens and FDP barely get the vote percentage of the CDU/CSU of 30%. The SPD 13.9%, Greens 11.9% and FDP 5.2%. This is the lowest showing of the SPD. Much of the problems come from the SPD socialist democratic party that seeks to bring more social democracy by building infrastructure, public services as Biden is doing in the US, yet is prevented from doing this with the presence of the FDP which is against spending and seeks budget discipline as the charter of its party. The Finance minister Lindner is from the FDP. As a result the SPD and Greens are not able to do what they prmised in the last election to invest in infrastructure and public services. A visit to Germany shows this with the Deutsche Bahn, the rail stations with a dilapidated look as if built in the last century, trains late with old technology and less investment in maintenance. Not much construction is seen and public transport looks haggard and old. Germany's constitution makes investment difficult and court decisions limit spending or finding other sources for investment, the FDP acting as a brake on spending. The far right AfD vote was upto to15%. Without investment and offering a new vision of a modern Germany even after managing the energy crisis of which some of the fault lay with the way Merkel allowed over dependence on Russian supplies of oil and gas, even then the CDU is getting more of the vote. Another reason is the CDU under Leyen taking a strong stand on Ukraine with the SPD's history of maintaining better relations with Russia limiting its role in this crisis. As a result Germany under Scholz labors on with no solution to current problems requiring spending and investment. The next parliament election is in 2025. ...

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Peter Goodman who covers the consequences in the lives of ordinary people of the industrial changes going on around us, gives this report from Michigan. He shows how today's Michigan, was home to Henry Ford's automobile plants that made it a major part of the industrial revolution in the US after 1910, when Ford's first assembly line manufacturing was set up in Highland Park, Detroit. Industrial growth till 1960 made the US the leading industrial nation in the world. Followed by Japanese imports and auto manufacturing shifting to Asia and Mexico, that led to deindustrialization and neglect in Michigan and the midwestern US.  Key aspects of resurgence today is coming from lessons learned in the period of deindustrialization. From labor and management not working together, from huge pension obligations and costs that had to be overcome, that made existing wage and cost structures uncompetitive with Asian manufacturing. Labor concessions in the last decade have made a rearrangement of cost structure possible, yet along with the financial crisis of 2008 further worsened worker incomes. The first steps of a return for Michigan to its role in the early industrialization of America, the new labor contract negotiated in 2023, the support of president Biden and the government, the investment in the new technology of electric car manufacturing by Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Goodman shows how the state, federal government, community colleges and other educational institutions training workers and students, and car companies are working together to promote interests of workers and communities. There is uncertainty created about the fewer parts in the electric car manufacturing process, automation advances, and fewer jobs. Yet the process is a transition over many years and this is accepted by the Biden administration and by the industry as it responds to slower demand for electric cars in 2024. This provides the time to bring up new training programs for workers, enable the funding of new research into battery technologies that would bring down the cost and make electric car prices accessible to the wider population. Uncertainty and fears about the transition are counteracted by the effort the Biden administration is making to bring up all manufacturing and to make large investments in American manufacturing.   ...

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Turkey is reviving its relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Prince Bin Salman will visit Turkey as part of a remake of Turkey Saudi relations. Turkey's economic crisis has revived the relationship as Turkey badly needs aid for its economy. The pressure on emerging markets is increasing with US central bank raising rates reducing inflows of western money into Turkey even further. Prince Salman has already received visits from French and British leaders. He visited Jordan and Egypt this week and will now be in Ankara. In the summer he will visit Greece and Cyprus. Saudis are modernizing their economy changing culture in relationships of men and women, in women's rights and education, and broadening relationships with the world under Salman. There is an astonishing openness to science and technology in a drive to be modern. The old Saudi monarchy and conservative rule with ancient traditions is giving way to what the Saudis in the group under Salman see as the modernization of Europe and America in the 20th century using science and technology as what they would like to see in their own country. There is also a drive to think independently from the dogmatic positions of the past that have turned the Kingdom into an American dependency with no obligation or incentive to modernize its culture and be open to the world outside.  The US fought a war to ostensibly modernize a backward mountainous remote state as Afghanistan, while being perfectly comfortable with the old Saudi monarchies of the past that made little change in the ancient culture and tradition and in women's rights and education. Such were the contradictions in American policy and the failure to think anew. As president Lincoln said "as our case is new we must think anew, and act anew." President Biden will now visit Saudi Arabia to build a new relationship with an independent nation, which along with the UAE is bringing change to the Middle East through infrastructure development and modernization. Salman's modernization comes as the kingdom also faced a need to make a transition out of dependence on fossil fuels. Salman sees trips to Greece and Turkey as opening up to all sides. Saudis have good relations with Israel and Egypt another part of this openness. The US senses this, India has sensed this. India's Modi government  made sending the Oxford vaccines manufactured in India to Saudis a priority during 2021. The Indian example is also changing the way the UAE and Saudis see infrastructure development and modernization in the region. This is also changing the way the region is looking at itself. For decades Egypt lacking the resources to build infrastructure on its own has languished economically. A helping hand from the Saudis is changing Egypt. The entire rail system is being modernized with the latest technology from Siemens. The Saudis have stabilized the Egyptian economy with a $5 billion deposit in the Central Bank of Egypt. On June 21 Egypt and Saudis signed $7.7 billion in investment deals for infrastructure, logistics, port administration, food, industry, medicine, energy and technology. In the investments in Egypt some of the oil money going to Saudis with $100 per barrel oil price is going to an economy in Egypt that can easily absorb and make good use of the investment to modernize.   The influence of Saudi leverage in fossil fuels which drove the US relationship with Saudis since FDR is being replaced with an independent Saudi kingdom making decisions to modernize across the board in all aspects compared to one that favored a few American companies such as Exxon Mobil and ARAMCO or arms makers such as Boeing and Lockheed that helped recycle American money going to pay for Saudi fossil fuels back to America.    ...

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The 44 kilometre stretch of rail line being built in the region of West Bengal and Sikkim will for the first time provide a direct rail connection between Sikkim and India. A project that was approved years back in 2009 will be completed in 2 years by December 2022 by the federal government. The investment in the project is 89 billion rupees or $1.2 billion. It is a strategic project for India as it integrates the Himalayan region of Sikkim and Bhutan, Nepal, with India with rapid rail connectivity. The lack of reliable and modern rail infrastructure had held back economic development in the region. This is part of the Himalayan region in India's northeast, with spectacular mountains and requires modern engineering and technology for miles of tunnels through the mountains and bridges over many rivers at high altitude. This project is a combined venture of Indian Railways and its unit Northeast Frontier Railways, and the Indian Railway Construction Company (IRCON). By completing difficult rail and other infrastructure projects in time and in budget the entire development of the Himalayan region is being moved forward.   ...

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Starting in 2009 Samsung's investment in R&D exceeded the same investment by competitors Sony and Panasonic. By 2011 this gap had widened, as Samsung spent $8.7 billion on R&D in 2011, Panasonic $6.6 billion and Sony $5.5 billion for their fiscal years. This is a result of Samsung's having captured a larger portion of the market and profits in recent years. In the U.S. Samsung has 50% of the market for LCD television sets. Now Sony and Panasonic have reached an agreement to join together their efforts for production technologies to produce OLED television sets, the next generation technology for television. Sony and Panasonic are also working on changing their mindset that focussed on technological advancement and less on delivering consumer friendly technology at attractive price points. Sony developed the first e-reader in 2004, and developed the first OLED set in 2007. But the e-reader lacked the software capabilities of the e-readers developed later by Amazon and Apple. For OLED the production technology was lacking for Sony to produce it at commercially viable prices for mass production. Now Sony prefers to let S. Korean competitors take the lead, and hopes to come from behind by combining critical areas of technological development with Panasonic. Samsung and LG Electronics will bring new 55 inch OLED sets to the market in late 2012. Panasonic and Sony have new CEO's who are faced with developing strategies for a rebound. Panasonic CEO, Kazuhiro Tsuga, is keen on changing the mindset of the company back to the consumer. He told a news conference recently: "Japanese firms are too confident about our technology and manufacturing prowess. We lost sight of the products from the consumer's point of view."...

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Matteo Renzi, recently elected chief of Italy's ruling Democratic party, is likely to be the next prime minister as current prime minister Letta resigns. Letta's administration had come under increasing criticism from business and public opinion about the slow pace of economic changes in Italy. Italy's 2 trillion debt, or about $2.7 trillion, at 130% of GDP, and the declining GDP with little or no economic growth, is a problem for the eurozone. At the current pace of economic change the IMF forecast estimates only 0.5% annual growth in GDP till 2018. Foreign direct investment 2005-2011 is about one third of the eurozone average, according to the IMF, and Italy has failed to attract foreign investment for the last two decades with its weak political system and lack of competitiveness. By comparison Spain has seen an increase in exports and increasing foreign investment as it positions itself for a recovery. The austerity measures adopted by the Monti and Letta adminstrations in 2011-2013 helped to improve confidence in capital markets and lower borrowing rates, however this is clearly not the answer to Italy's problems of slow or no growth in the economy for the last decade. This is the problem Matteo Renzi, the 39 year old Mayor of Florence, is pushing to tackle as the mood in the country calls for aggressive action. Renzi's economic advisor is Filippo Taddei, who has a doctorate from Columbia University. He says at the core the issues are about what kind of "productive identity" Italy should have. Taxation that promotes higher rates of business investment is needed to promote growth, and creating a business climate that encourages investment in human capital and new technology. Payroll and business taxes take up about two thirds of a company's earnings leaving less for investment. Renzi is planning to take the centre left Democratic party in a new direction, "the road less travelled," as he put it in a televised speech, with innovative solutions including pro-market approach. As a first step he negotiated a deal with former premier Berlusconi for electoral reforms that would give a party or coalition winning electoral support a strong mandate to make and execute policy, without being hobbled in the way previous administrations were in the post war period. Lucrezia Reichlin, former head of research at the ECB, and Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a former member of the ECB executive council, are candidates to be the economics minister in the Renzi administration....

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Fuel efficiency rules require average fuel efficiency in the U.S. of 35 mpg by 2016. The debate is now on what to do for 2017 to 2025. New technology such as the P2 systems for hybrids already used in VW, Nissan and Hyundai vehicles makes a 20% increase in fuel efficiency possible. Large investments are being made to bring new technology to bear on increasing fuel efficiency significantly. Government agencies are looking at different scenarios by which the new fuel economy standards beyond 2017-2025 could be set between 47 mpg and 62 mpg. An additional factor is the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions- at 47 mpg the reduction would be 3%, at 62 mpg the reduction would be 6%. Another factor is how much the impact is on the cost of vehicles and reduced cost on gasoline. Here there is a wide range in the numbers for average mpg rules at 62 mpg- with EPA estimates at $2800-$3500 increase in vehicle cost and $5000 savings in fuel cost, Centre for Automotive Research estimates at $9790 increase in vehicle cost. The 62 mpg translates into "real world" actual efficiency of 45 mpg. In April 2011, 17 senators put out a letter of support for the 62 mpg proposal. There is a public value involved in this that is also significant- the reduced dependence on foreign oil means savings in defense expenditures in parts of the Middle East, and an economy that is less impacted by volatility in the price of oil. As this aspect of public value or benefits cannot be quantified easily even though they are significant, this may tend to be lost in the debate and the politics of fuel efficiency. For automakers there is significant marketing value in having a visible and strong presence in fuel efficient vehicles because of perception as forward looking- something that hurt Detroit carmakers in the last decade. During periods of gasoline prices at $5 a gallon this provides carmakers with an extra cushion of safety in securing car sales. Carmakers in one country such as the U.S. also have to worry about what carmakers in other countries such as Japan and Germany are doing- if the standards in the U.S. develop a gap compared to other countries developing advanced fuel efficiency technologies this poses significant risks because of the global nature of the automobile marketplace. See the group "Asleep at the Spigot" for more details on this. Many of these less quantifiable factors do not get the attention they deserve because they are significant from experience but not easily quantified. Throw into this the large unknown of what new technologies not yet developed lie ahead with a burst of effort by one country or another, which bring cost reductions at the same time - and the debate requires as much a good sense of what is the path offering the greatest advantages in years ahead than a pure exercize in numbers. ...

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Hardeep Puri writes in the Indian Express that one of the biggest problems in development in India was that government programs for development just kept getting delayed, and there were leakages of funds that could never be tracked. It is the sign of a developing country that it remain perpetually a developing country when it does not find a way to overcome this situation. Most of Asia, Japan, South Korea, China has found a way out, and it is a sign of character in a country and its administration that real implementation takes place to transform a developing country into a modern country organizing and combining the inputs of land, capital, technology and human resources. Just one example is the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana to build housing in India's cities to promote quality of living. In the last 7 years Puri writes in the Indian Express that 11.2 million houses were sanctioned, 4.9 million built and the rest to be built by March 2022. Compared to 1.2 million in the prior 10 years. To do this investment jumped by about 10 times. In the US infrastructure was neglected in the last 2 decades. In India urban infrastructure was delayed by never ending delays and leakages of funds. Across a range of projects from Metro urban transport to rail, bridges and road, infrastructure was slow and wobbly in India for most of the decades since 1947. The Smart Cities Mission is being financed with an investment planned of Rupees 2 trillion or over $200 billion to change the urban landscape with people centred priorities. As Puri writes silently, non performers are being weeded out, loopholes plugged, targets set, in scrutiny and monitoring of projects all the way to the prime minister in a way that has never happened before. There is relentless focus on monitoring the missions, problems to overcome, targets and dates of completion. Bringing to life a new national character and spirit for India during the pandemic. ...

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The Indian prime minister's choice for heading Indian Railways and the IT Ministry is similar to his choice of Mr. Jaishankar for the Ministry of External Affairs. He selected a person with the drive and conviction as well as the experience to tackle the important job of modernizing Indian Railways so that it provides the convenience and access that is seen in Europe with new investment and advances in technology. The 50 year old Vaishnaw is from Orissa, yet grew up in Jodhpur where he attended engineering school, before doing M Tech from IIT Kanpur. He had an all India rank of 27 in the Indian Civil Services exam. In 2003 he worked as Deputy Secretary in the prime minister's office when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was prime minister. He was private secretary to Mr. Vajpayee in 2004. He then studied for a Masters degree at the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania, and worked for General Electric and Siemens in India in transportation related projects. By 2019 Ashwini Vaishnaw had caught the attention of the Indian prime minister as a capable administrator with a can do attitude in India's modernization efforts. He was nominated for the upper house of parliament. In 2021 July he was appointed to lead 2 important ministries - railways and IT. His first action in the first 48 hours was to ask senior officers in the rail ministry and IT ministry to work two shifts alternately from 7am to 3pm, and 3 pm to 12 midnight so that work can be pushed forward that needed to be done in great speed for modernization. Delivering on the vision of the prime minister for modernizing the country is now the task of this ministry and Mr. Vaishnaw. ...

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Sears Holdings spent $1.46 per square foot in 2012 on its stores compared to an average of $9.45 per square foot for Target, Penneys, Walmart, Lowe's and Home Depot, according to this report. Lampert counters this by saying his fund made investments in technology and online retail. Yet Sears stock is up 41% for the year by Oct 2013 largely on the basis that Sears Holdings is worth much more for its parts. Land's End is being put up for sale as well as other pieces of Sears Holdings by Ed Lampert's Hedge Fund ESL Investments.

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Because technology spending has been more disciplined and focused on productivity and efficiency gains, the investment has been lower but more effective than in the 3 years leading to the last recession in 2001. At that time it was increasing 12.9% a year leading into the recesson and faced sharp cutbacks leading to a drop of 11% over the next 2 years 2001-2003. By contrast this time the tech spending went up by about 2.8% a year in the last 3 years, according to Gartner, and has delivered solid results at places like American Airlines. Technology spending is likely to hold up and continue moderate increase this year and next as the US enters a recession. At American a fuel efficiency drive starting 2005 including software to come up with best routes, flight paths and baggage loading has saved 96 million gallons a year. Note that spending on computer hardware and software is about half of all capital spending by business.

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In 2015 the new government of Antonio Costa took a U turn from austerity policies followed in return for a bailout from the European Union. This has helped Portugal achieve the highest growth in a decade coming back from a severe slump. Unemployment is cut in half with growth in the tourist industry, and investment in agriculture, construction, aerospace.  Traditional industries such as paper mills and textiles have invested in new technology resulting in a boom in exports. German companies Bosch, Mercedes Benz, and others have also invested in the country. Portugal has a good relationship with Germany and the European Union which has also helped attract foreign investment. Prime minister Antonio Costa says "too much austerity deepens a recession and leads to a vicious circle." Antonio Costa came to power in 2015 on promises to reverse cuts in income made by the previous government to reduce the deficit in exchange for a 78 billion euro international bailout. The government backed by left parties left out of government since 1974 with the collapse of the dictatorship, was able to increase public sector salaries, the minimum wage and pensions, over objections of the IMF and the German government. Incentives were given to small business in the form of tax incentives, development subsidies and funding. Budget balancing was achieved by cutting expenditure on infrastructure and other spending, cutting the budget deficit from 4.4% when Costa took office to 1%. A surplus is planned for 2020, ending a quarter century of budget deficits. ...

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Decades of investment in car manufacturing and EV's is paying off for China. It now exports 5.7 million cars of which 1.7 million are EV's. EV exports are twice that of Germany. Car production capacity in China surged as the Chinese market expanded to be larger than Europe and the US combined. The production capacity is twice the size of the domestic market- 40 million gasoline cars from 100 factories.  As domestic sales have slowed down there is a push for exporting this excess capacity. The US and the EU are imposing tariffs on Chinese cars to protect their domestic manufacturing. The push to become a leader dates back to premier Wen Jiabao 20003-2013. Wen chose Audi engineer Wan Gang as minister of science and technology, and gave him the task of making China the leader in electric vehicles. Manufacturers were given subsidies, tax breaks, cheap land and electricity. By one estimate the EV manufacturers and battery makers in China received $230 billion in subsidies since 2009.  This is one reason the EU and the US are imposing tariffs to protect their domestic manufacturers. As the shift to EV's continues in China- half of the cars in 2024 EV's- the gasoline models are shipped overseas. China has now replaced the western brands in Russia with it's gasoline models.  China makes great savings in batteries as it controls the supply chain in batteries. It makes EV's at 30% lower cost with these efficiencies. ...

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U.S. president Trump's executive order reversing parts of the Clean Power Plan of president Obama may extend the life of older coal powered plants, but overall it is unlikely to change the shift away from coal for the U.S. utility industry. It will do little to reverse the market forces that are leading to a shift to natural gas for the utility industry with the increasing availability of natural gas. In this WSJ report Cassandra Sweet cites Duke Energy Corp. CEO Lynn Good, who says natural gas for Duke will be the leading fuel followed by coal by 2026, and natural gas now makes up 28% of its mix with coal at 34%. He says a $11 billion ten year investment in natural gas and renewable energy will go through regardless of what the Trump administration does because of the economics- the declining price of renewables, the competitive price of natural gas. Companies are loath to base their long term plans on changes in administration as they see the economics dictated by advances in technology, and the general sense that cleaner energy is here to stay for the long run. Already in the U.S. 34% of total power supplies are from natural gas and 30% from coal for 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Department. This may change slightly as coal is used where it is economical and makes sense without the carbon rules, yet the long term trend is clearly towards natural gas. ...

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Manufacturing could be the bright spot for the U.S. in 2021 and the years ahead. The pandemic has hurt industrial production in the U.S. in 2020. This brings manufacturing in the U.S. to a new low. This report in the WSJ says there is hope today because negative trends are about to be reversed. During three decades since the eighties three trends hurt the U.S.- lack of sustained capital investment, noncompetitive labor costs, degrading infrastructure.  To make the reversal of these trends and raise American manufacturing to what it was after World War II attention is being paid to these negative trends. The response- a quick recovery from the recession,  localization of supply chains, technological advancements to close the gap with competitors. By market capitalization on S&P 500 the U.S. manufacturing industrial sector was 15% in 2000, in 2020 it is 9%. Hope today lies in the determination to reverse the trends in this sector and regain leadership. Even in the aerospace sector the determination and legacy of American manufacturing is strong. Recently the WSJ ran a story on how David Farr, the CEO of industrial company Emerson Electric, which makes automation equipment for factories and aerospace parts based in Ferguson, Missouri, managed his company through the pandemic so that it was posed to return quickly to full production. Against all the hurdles he would not give up and fought hard in each battle with suppliers, governments and the pandemic.This bodes well for American manufacturing coming back on quickly even in tough markets such as aerospace and automation. Other factors WSJ mentions are quick reversal in hit to earnings, robust demand. Consumables have sprung back up fastest, but automobiles are also holding up in demand. This leads us to the localization of supply chains. Companies realize the risks of tensions in the South China Sea and technology theft today in a way that they did not before and this is changing the mood resulting in plans to move production onshore. Warnings from the Trump administration played a role with new tariffs on Chinese imports. Shipping products halfway around the world no longer makes sense, especially in losing control of supplies. Emerson depended on production off shore in China and other countries and panic from the pandemic set in quickly that everything would come to a halt as supplies stopped coming and Emerson could do nothing. The economics WSJ points out are also different today with labor cost inflation in China and labor cost deflation in the U.S. which improves U.S. competitiveness. To make U.S. labor cost competitive with China says Scott Davis in WSJ, one has to make the same quantity of product with half the employees, and this is now possible with automation technologies in 2020. The result is that even at this low point in manufacturing one can see the future is bright for the USA as it moves rapidly to rebuild the strength in manufacturing it had for most of the twentieth century. ...

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Chrysler's net income increased in 2012 to $1.67 billion, up from the $183 million in 2011. Revenue was $65.8 billion in 2012, increasing 19.6% over $55 billion in 2011. To see what impact taking ownership stake in Chrysler over four years has accomplished for Fiat one has to consider the losses Fiat would suffer without Chrysler. In France the lack of a foreign presence required Peugeot Citroen to look for government aid. Even the initial investment in Chrysler by Fiat made use of the $2 billion in a breakup fee for an agreement Fiat signed with GM before 2007. Showing the huge dividends Fiat has gained from the new management team installed at Fiat in the last decade. This makeover of Fiat was done using younger managers under an executive from outside the auto industry. That alone would have not saved Fiat, leveraging the skills at Chrysler was a crucial opportunity. Fiat now has a 58.5% stake in Chrysler. Taken alone Fiat would lose $1.04 billion euros or $1.4 billion in 2012, and would need government aid, even after the turnaround under Marchionne, showing how crucial taking the initiative to make the early investment in Chrysler was to saving Fiat. Sensing this opportunity when first Daimler and then Cerberus private equity failed with Chrysler, taking advantage of the government aid to Chrysler after the 2008 financial crisis, and creating a partnership with the government on issues such as fuel efficiency, may be the biggest achievements of Marchionne and his team of managers. Sensing the opportunity to get geographical diversification by taking on Chrysler separated Fiat from Peugeot Citroen, which lacked this diversification and had to turn to the French government for aid. Taking on the Chrysler venture, sensing the timing and balancing the risk with management knowhow, securing the right kind of deal with the U.S. government to reduce risks in 2008, turning Fiat technology in small cars into a saleable asset, and managing the relationship with the Obama administration, separates Marchionne and his team from a management team that would have seen its role in a purely Italian turnaround which would have not lasted. ...

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Estimates of the contraction of the Iranian economy in 2012-2013 show GDP declines for 2012 and 2013. The IMF estimate of the economic contraction for fiscal year ending March 2013 was 6%. Former president Ahmadinejad's policies led to hyper inflation, a sharp depreciation of the currency rial, similiar to the situation in Venezuela under Chavez and Maduro. To get a sense of the the scale of the damage to the Iranian economy- a decline of 39% in vehicle production in 2012 with the lack of essental parts and decline in demand, oil production declining to about 700,000 barrels at one point in 2013 from over 2 million barrels in the period before 2012. This was a result of lack of access to needed technology and parts as sanctions began to take a toll, and because of the decline in exports from the enforcing of sanctions by 2013. By June 2014 the newly elected leader Rouhani had made economic recovery the to priority- inflation had been cut in half and the rial currency had recovered from the lows in 2012-2013, and oil production increased to 1.2 million barrels. The IMF forecast is for GDP growth of 2.35% for 2015. The auto maker Khodro Industrial Group is keen on increasing production and partnering again with Renault, which left the country with the sanctions. Iran's oil producing company estimate is that about 700,000 increase in production could be achieved quickly with the lifting of sanctions for oil technology and parts. Rouhani has put together a large group of business leaders inside Iran and overseas to improve Iran's image with investors and attract foreign investment....